Three True Outcomes, The Bobby Dalbec Thread.

Manramsclan

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What has been really encouraging is that Dalbec has been hitting pitches the other way for singles in key ABs as well as last night's inside out swing that resulted in an opposite field homerun. The pitch prior he absolutely cleared out an inside pitch foul and then made an adjustment to the pitch away to drive it out.

That's the kind of development that makes me think his improvement is for real. I hope I am right.
 

Frisbetarian

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Bobby Dalbec reached 30 home runs in fewer plate appearances than any other Red Sox player in history (503). Faster than Conigliaro, Dropo, and even Ted Williams. Trading him for a 5th starter would be a huge mistake, IMO.

An aside, but I would pay big money to see him go Donnie Rojas the next time he hits a home run, screaming "Dalbec Dalbec Bobby Bobby Bobby Bobby Dalbec" as he rounds the bases, then "Baseball is LIFE!" as he crosses the plate.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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Bobby Dalbec reached 30 home runs in fewer plate appearances than any other Red Sox player in history (503). Faster than Conigliaro, Dropo, and even Ted Williams. Trading him for a 5th starter would be a huge mistake, IMO.

An aside, but I would pay big money to see him go Donnie Rojas the next time he hits a home run, screaming "Dalbec Dalbec Bobby Bobby Bobby Bobby Dalbec" as he rounds the bases, then "Baseball is LIFE!" as he crosses the plate.
Far older than all those guys too, though. It's almost like it's a meaningless stat due to his age.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Meaningless? Interesting choice of words.

For the record, Dalbec was younger than Dropo when he got to 30 HR.

Devers has 108 HRs and is a year younger than Dalbec. Maybe meaningless isn't the right word and misleading is.

If Kevin Maas was 21 when he did it, things change.
 

grimshaw

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I think a better way of looking at it, is that 78 other players have as many or more home runs than Dalbec this season. And this season also happens to be his age 26 one when he damn better be doing what he's doing with no more margin for error to be a passable 1st baseman.

We're all happy for him. It's the best thing to watch IMO to see home grown guys succeed. But this hot streak just clouds things because of the type of player profile he has. He is still just now a half win player while throwing the kitchen sink at opposing pitchers (less by bWAR). Will the league readjust and he flattens out to be Miguel Sano or is he going to add 30 points to his OBP and be Josh Bell.

I would certainly move him for the right package, because I feel the latter is his ceiling and when they aren't up against the cap they can and should do better. This isn't the AL Central. Every marginal win is precious in this division.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I think a better way of looking at it, is that 78 other players have as many or more home runs than Dalbec this season. And this season also happens to be his age 26 one when he damn better be doing what he's doing with no more margin for error to be a passable 1st baseman.

We're all happy for him. It's the best thing to watch IMO to see home grown guys succeed. But this hot streak just clouds things because of the type of player profile he has. He is still just now a half win player (less by bWAR). Will the league readjust and he flattens out to be Miguel Sano or is he going to add 30 points to his OBP and be Josh Bell.

I would certainly move him for the right package, because I feel the latter is his ceiling and when they aren't up against the cap they can and should do better. This isn't the AL Central. Every marginal win is precious in this division.
But at his salary, it may not make sense to improve there assuming that value considering needed improvements for ‘22 at other spots and increases in salary at places where guys are likely to be next season
 

grimshaw

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But at his salary, it may not make sense to improve there assuming that value considering needed improvements for ‘22 at other spots and increases in salary at places where guys are likely to be next season
You could get roughly the same production from Travis Shaw and right handed bat x until Casas is ready. I'm not saying actively move him, just that I think some people are overrating his value and it can be replaced.
 
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Frisbetarian

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I think a better way of looking at it, is that 78 other players have as many or more home runs than Dalbec this season. And this season also happens to be his age 26 one when he damn better be doing what he's doing with no more margin for error to be a passable 1st baseman.

We're all happy for him. It's the best thing to watch IMO to see home grown guys succeed. But this hot streak just clouds things because of the type of player profile he has. He is still just now a half win player while throwing the kitchen sink at opposing pitchers (less by bWAR). Will the league readjust and he flattens out to be Miguel Sano or is he going to add 30 points to his OBP and be Josh Bell.

I would certainly move him for the right package, because I feel the latter is his ceiling and when they aren't up against the cap they can and should do better. This isn't the AL Central. Every marginal win is precious in this division.
I think a much better way to look at it is by home runs per plate appearance (absolute makes no sense). Over the past 2 seasons (which is what my original post referred to), of the 248 MLB players with over 400 PA, Dalbec ranks 18th in HR/PA. An aside, but he's also 62nd in OPS. Further, WAR is a highly flawed stat, especially when looking at Dalbec. It combines relatively accurate data (hitting), with highly questionable data (fielding and baserunning) to give an often misleading one size fits all number. In Dalbec's case, playing an unfamiliar position has cost him (per BR) 1.5 wins between fielding and positional adjustment over the last 2 seasons (-1.4 per FG). He is, however, from the limited times I've seen him in the minor leagues and with the Red Sox and per scouting reports, an above average 3rd baseman defensively. And IMO, an above average 3rd baseman with 30 - 40 HR power in the top quartile in OPS in MLB who is also cost controlled is a hell of an asset.

My post was merely meant to show that Bobby D had hit 30 HR faster than any other player in Red Sox history. I thought it was an interesting fact I had not seen elsewhere. I guess I'm a little surprised at the pushback on that fact.
 

Frisbetarian

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You could get roughly the same production from Travis Shaw and right handed bat x until Casas is ready. I'm not saying actively move him, just that I think some people are overrating his value and it can be replaced.

Over the past 2 seasons, Shaw is 129th in HR/PA and 212th in OPS of those 248 MLB players with over 400 PA. Righthanded bat X would have to be a hell of a hitter so he and Shaw could equal Dalbec's production.
 

NickEsasky

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I think a much better way to look at it is by home runs per plate appearance (absolute makes no sense). Over the past 2 seasons (which is what my original post referred to), of the 248 MLB players with over 400 PA, Dalbec ranks 18th in HR/PA. An aside, but he's also 62nd in OPS. Further, WAR is a highly flawed stat, especially when looking at Dalbec. It combines relatively accurate data (hitting), with highly questionable data (fielding and baserunning) to give an often misleading one size fits all number. In Dalbec's case, playing an unfamiliar position has cost him (per BR) 1.5 wins between fielding and positional adjustment over the last 2 seasons (-1.4 per FG). He is, however, from the limited times I've seen him in the minor leagues and with the Red Sox and per scouting reports, an above average 3rd baseman defensively. And IMO, an above average 3rd baseman with 30 - 40 HR power in the top quartile in OPS in MLB who is also cost controlled is a hell of an asset.

My post was merely meant to show that Bobby D had hit 30 HR faster than any other player in Red Sox history. I thought it was an interesting fact I had not seen elsewhere. I guess I'm a little surprised at the pushback on that fact.
Well, your post also said that trading him for a 5th starter would be a huge mistake. So it seems you were implying there was more to it than just the stat you found interesting (which was very interesting). I think it is more the last part of your post that people are giving pushback on than the first part.
 

Frisbetarian

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Well, your post also said that trading him for a 5th starter would be a huge mistake. So it seems you were implying there was more to it than just the stat you found interesting (which was very interesting). I think it is more the last part of your post that people are giving pushback on than the first part.
Fair enough, but it seemed obvious to me that you wouldn't trade a decent defensive 3rd baseman with serious power and top quartile OPS for a fungible starting pitcher who will cost more in salary. I guess I didn't see that as controversial.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Fair enough, but it seemed obvious to me that you wouldn't trade a decent defensive 3rd baseman with serious power and top quartile OPS for a fungible starting pitcher who will cost more in salary. I guess I didn't see that as controversial.
If other teams valued him as a decent defensive 3b, sure.

I don't think many people agree with your assessment of Dalbec being a decent 3b.
 

grimshaw

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I think a much better way to look at it is by home runs per plate appearance (absolute makes no sense). Over the past 2 seasons (which is what my original post referred to), of the 248 MLB players with over 400 PA, Dalbec ranks 18th in HR/PA. An aside, but he's also 62nd in OPS. Further, WAR is a highly flawed stat, especially when looking at Dalbec. It combines relatively accurate data (hitting), with highly questionable data (fielding and baserunning) to give an often misleading one size fits all number. In Dalbec's case, playing an unfamiliar position has cost him (per BR) 1.5 wins between fielding and positional adjustment over the last 2 seasons (-1.4 per FG). He is, however, from the limited times I've seen him in the minor leagues and with the Red Sox and per scouting reports, an above average 3rd baseman defensively. And IMO, an above average 3rd baseman with 30 - 40 HR power in the top quartile in OPS in MLB who is also cost controlled is a hell of an asset.

My post was merely meant to show that Bobby D had hit 30 HR faster than any other player in Red Sox history. I thought it was an interesting fact I had not seen elsewhere. I guess I'm a little surprised at the pushback on that fact.
It is an interesting fact. I was more referring to what his trade value was.

I agree that WAR is certainly a flawed stat, particularly with positional adjustments at both 1b and DH specifically but at least he is being compared to other 1b.
OBP is another animal though and a .300 isn't good no matter where you play.

As to 3b vs 1b, he did play quite a bit of first in college and has 202 professional games there as opposed to 487 at 3b. If another team values him as a 3b then he's worth more to that team than ours anyhow.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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You could get roughly the same production from Travis Shaw and right handed bat x until Casas is ready. I'm not saying actively move him, just that I think some people are overrating his value and it can be replaced.
If we're overrating his value to the Sox, what value does he hold as a trade piece? I think the case being made isn't that he has excess value to the Red Sox and must be kept so much as the concern that a return in trade for him plus the cost of his replacement(s) might end up costing the team more than simply hanging on to him and filling holes in some other way.

One proposal earlier in the thread was trade Dalbec and re-sign Schwarber, which right there increases the salary expended on first base by at least 10X. That means the return for Dalbec has to be pretty valuable (preferably at low cost) to balance that out. Using Shaw/RHB platoon would be a bit better on balance, but you're still expending more on 1B than you could so you still need good value in return. Can you get that value? Fris suggests a 5th starter type as the return, which I think might be better than they could actually get.
 

Frisbetarian

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If other teams valued him as a decent defensive 3b, sure.

I don't think many people agree with your assessment of Dalbec being a decent 3b.
FWIW, the Red Sox named him the Minor League defensive player of the year in 2018 when he split time between Salem and Portland, so I'm not on an island here. And while I would never betray a confidence and share something told to me in private, I can say there are some in the organization who still feel his potential is an average to above average defender at 3rd. But maybe you've heard different from other sources.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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FWIW, the Red Sox named him the Minor League defensive player of the year in 2018 when he split time between Salem and Portland, so I'm not on an island here. And while I would never betray a confidence and share something told to me in private, I can say there are some in the organization who still feel his potential is an average to above average defender at 3rd. But maybe you've heard different from other sources.
Do these same people also feel that Devers is better or has better potential defensively at 3B? I know of Dalbec's rep coming up, but why has there never been much talk (other than from posters here) of replacing Devers with Dalbec defensively? Is that solely a product of Devers being younger and more highly ranked? Or do they believe that because of Dalbec's potential at 3B, it should translate to great potential defensively at first, so Dalbec at 1B/Devers at 3B is greater than Dalbec at 3B/Devers at 1B?
 

Frisbetarian

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I can't/won't say what anyone else thinks (TMI), but I would have played Dalbec at 3rd this year and moved Devers to 1st. I think Dalbec is much better defensively than Devers (which isn't saying that much). Going forward, I think Dalbec, Devers, and Casas splitting time at the corners and DH would be optimal, with JD kicked to the curb. I'm not a big fan of full time DH's, as it limits flexibility.
 

Cesar Crespo

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FWIW, the Red Sox named him the Minor League defensive player of the year in 2018 when he split time between Salem and Portland, so I'm not on an island here. And while I would never betray a confidence and share something told to me in private, I can say there are some in the organization who still feel his potential is an average to above average defender at 3rd. But maybe you've heard different from other sources.
They named Ryan Lavarnway defensive player of the year too. Internal awards mean nothing. Denyi Reyes was P(itcher)OTY for the Sox in 2018 and isn't even really a prospect.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Anyway, in his last 138 PA, he has 12 HR and 14bb. 40k
In his first 278, he had 10 HR and 12 bb. 104 k.
2 more HR, 2 more walks in half the PA. 29.0% K rate compared to 37.4.

Over Dalbec's last 102, he's at 11 HR, 11bb, 25k. If he can keep his K rate under 30%, he's worth far more than a fungible starter even at 1b. This is especially true if he's close to a .250 hitter.

If teams saw him as an average 3b, Dalbec would be worth far more in trade than at 1b for the Sox. If teams see him as a 1b, he probably has more value to the Sox.

Speaking of Casas, over the last 158 PA in AA, he has 28bb/23k. We may see him sooner rather than later. His season is even more ridiculous when you factor in all the time away from the team and the fact he basically skipped over A+.
 

billy ashley

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Portland eliminated from the playoff picture, relevant here, in that Casas will likely be promoted to AAA.

Dalbec went from having a totally lost season and uncertain immediate to being a solid bet to remain as the starting 1B next season as the stopgap for Casas. If his improvement is real and not just one of his hot streaks (he has those) he could be a possible long term solution as a DH and bad defensive corner IF bench option.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Portland eliminated from the playoff picture, relevant here, in that Casas will likely be promoted to AAA.

Dalbec went from having a totally lost season and uncertain immediate to being a solid bet to remain as the starting 1B next season as the stopgap for Casas. If his improvement is real and not just one of his hot streaks (he has those) he could be a possible long term solution as a DH and bad defensive corner IF bench option.
Mentioned up thread, but I think next season really is locked down for him at 1B at this point. Casas isn't ready and Dalbec has shown that he can likely be an overall positive contributor... and likely his defense will at least improve.... some....
If he can show himself to be around an .800 OPS consistent hitter with a little improved discipline and improved defense... I would trade him after '22 and his value would be pretty significant. I would say that right now he could bring back a solid 5th starter (Pivetta type) but another full season showing those improvements could bring back something even prettier.
If he starts getting DH/1B/3B part time play with Devers and Casas in '23 I could see his play start to struggle with inconsistent playing time and his trade value plummet. He's not valuable enough right now IMO for other teams to provide the Sox something more valuable than him in a deal though. Hold onto him and hope for another good season in '22
 

Frisbetarian

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They named Ryan Lavarnway defensive player of the year too. Internal awards mean nothing. Denyi Reyes was P(itcher)OTY for the Sox in 2018 and isn't even really a prospect.
Sigh. Lavarnway was never named Red Sox defensive player of the year. He was the Red Sox minor league co-offensive player of the year in 2010 (with Anthony Rizzo) when he hit 22 HR and drove in 102 runs in 462 AB. FWIW, Baseball America named him best power prospect in the International League the following season.

I'm trying to be nice here, but your contributions to this discussion have been consistently incorrect and poorly researched. First you said, "Far older than all those guys too, though" when I said Dalbec got to 30 HR in fewer PA than Conigliaro, Dropo, and Williams. That was false, and something you could have checked with a 60 second Google search, as Dropo was a year older than Dalbec when he reached 30 HR.

Next, after I said I thought Dalbec was a solid defensive 3rd baseman, you replied, "I don't think many people agree with your assessment of Dalbec being a decent 3b." I responded that the Red Sox named him defensive player of the year in 2018, which more than suggests other professional evaluators also were high on his defense, and your response is above. In it, you not only incorrectly say Lavarnway was once DPOY, but also are apparently claiming your defensive assessment skills are superior to the Red Sox scouts and front office employees. Eddie Romero and Gus Quattelbaum will be thrilled, I'm sure. It was a bizarre response to double down after being (nicely) shown your comment about my view on BD's defense having no backup was incorrect - the Red Sox minor league guys also think he's a decent defensive 3rd baseman.

I would strongly suggest you take more time before posting. Consistently having easy to research false info in your posts removes all credibility from your opinions.

Back on topic, you clearly think Dalbec is a poor defensive 3rd baseman, to the point where you degrade the Red Sox opinion on this. I'm assuming you have seen him play 3rd multiple times, and have extensive experience as a pro baseball defensive evaluator. Please give us your views of Dalbec at 3rd, including what he does well, where his weaknesses are, etc.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Portland eliminated from the playoff picture, relevant here, in that Casas will likely be promoted to AAA.
With the intake protocols required of players moving from any level to AAA or MLB this year, which includes a five day isolation/quarantine, it might not be worth promoting Casas this year. Assuming he finishes out the season (this weekend) with the Sea Dogs, he'd spend five days in isolation in order to play a maximum of seven games for Worcester.

Unless you just mean he'll be promoted for next year, in which case, never mind.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Sigh. Lavarnway was never named Red Sox defensive player of the year. He was the Red Sox minor league co-offensive player of the year in 2010 (with Anthony Rizzo) when he hit 22 HR and drove in 102 runs in 462 AB. FWIW, Baseball America named him best power prospect in the International League the following season.

I'm trying to be nice here, but your contributions to this discussion have been consistently incorrect and poorly researched. First you said, "Far older than all those guys too, though" when I said Dalbec got to 30 HR in fewer PA than Conigliaro, Dropo, and Williams. That was false, and something you could have checked with a 60 second Google search, as Dropo was a year older than Dalbec when he reached 30 HR.

Next, after I said I thought Dalbec was a solid defensive 3rd baseman, you replied, "I don't think many people agree with your assessment of Dalbec being a decent 3b." I responded that the Red Sox named him defensive player of the year in 2018, which more than suggests other professional evaluators also were high on his defense, and your response is above. In it, you not only incorrectly say Lavarnway was once DPOY, but also are apparently claiming your defensive assessment skills are superior to the Red Sox scouts and front office employees. Eddie Romero and Gus Quattelbaum will be thrilled, I'm sure. It was a bizarre response to double down after being (nicely) shown your comment about my view on BD's defense having no backup was incorrect - the Red Sox minor league guys also think he's a decent defensive 3rd baseman.

I would strongly suggest you take more time before posting. Consistently having easy to research false info in your posts removes all credibility from your opinions.

Back on topic, you clearly think Dalbec is a poor defensive 3rd baseman, to the point where you degrade the Red Sox opinion on this. I'm assuming you have seen him play 3rd multiple times, and have extensive experience as a pro baseball defensive evaluator. Please give us your views of Dalbec at 3rd, including what he does well, where his weaknesses are, etc.
One guy was older. Sorry for not being 100% literal. You were acting like him being the fastest to 30 HRs in PA was a reason not to trade him. All that information is is useless trivia. And you have no proof the Redsox think he's a good 3b other than a DPOY award that was from 3 years ago. Besides that, do you really expect the sox scouts and front office employees to say Bobby Dalbec sucks at 3b?

I've seen him in Portland multiple times but that was in 2018, the same year he won an award. It's almost like that information is even more useless now than it was before.

I also never said he was a poor 3b. I said you were in the minority with your assessment of him being "Decent".

And I'll stick by my claim that internal awards are shit even if I got Ryan Lavarnway wrong. I was thinking of Austin Rei. My bad.

edit: Most scouting reports I've read project him to be average at 3b. Those projections were in 2018 and 2019 tho.
 

Frisbetarian

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One guy was older. Sorry for not being 100% literal. You were acting like him being the fastest to 30 HRs in PA was a reason not to trade him. All that information is is useless trivia. And you have no proof the Redsox think he's a good 3b other than a DPOY award that was from 3 years ago. Besides that, do you really expect the sox scouts and front office employees to say Bobby Dalbec sucks at 3b?

I've seen him in Portland multiple times but that was in 2018, the same year he won an award. It's almost like that information is even more useless now than it was before.

I also never said he was a poor 3b. I said you were in the minority with your assessment of him being "Decent".

And I'll stick by my claim that internal awards are shit even if I got Ryan Lavarnway wrong. I was thinking of Austin Rei. My bad.

edit: Most scouting reports I've read project him to be average at 3b. Those projections were in 2018 and 2019 tho.
It is clearly not worth the time or effort to engage with you. Your posts are ill conceived, poorly written, littered with false information, confrontational, and reactionary. And even when you are nicely called out on your errors, you continue to double down.

But I did want to highlight the absolute absurdity of the two bolded sentences which completely contradict each other. Nicely done.
 

Cesar Crespo

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It is clearly not worth the time or effort to engage with you. Your posts are ill conceived, poorly written, littered with false information, confrontational, and reactionary. And even when you are nicely called out on your errors, you continue to double down.

But I did want to highlight the absolute absurdity of the two bolded sentences which completely contradict each other. Nicely done.
From 2-3 years ago. It's like information changes. And yeah, I'm the only one being confrontational and you are definitely being friendly. Get real.

And "project" is different than "is."
 

Cesar Crespo

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C.C: no one thinks the Sox will out and out say he is bad defensively, but they don't give out that DPOY award by throwing darts, or just to make someone feel good about themself.
You don't think they'd give the award to someone to improve their trade value? Probably far less so now than back in the Gammons day though.
 

cantor44

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I get the possibility of trading high and all that, but Dalbec now has a career OPS of .821, with defense at first that - to the eye test at least - seems to be steadily improving. He won't stay this hot, but clearly he's adjusting to major league play.

And he's a controllable asset, something this site's members value a great deal. Being an older rookie, there might be sense in riding out his controllable years, which take him through age 31. That is - they control the prime of his prime. If Casas comes up late 2022 or early 2023, and there are too many good hitting corner infielders, well, that's a good problem to have. Dalbec can swing between first, third, and DH. At worst he's a super guy to have on the bench. At best he's hitting 35 HRs a year, swinging between a few positions.

Yes his arb years will give him steady raises, but he will still be relatively cheap - exactly what they need if they wanna sign some choice blue chip free agents.
 

reggiecleveland

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I get the possibility of trading high and all that, but Dalbec now has a career OPS of .821, with defense at first that - to the eye test at least - seems to be steadily improving. He won't stay this hot, but clearly he's adjusting to major league play.

At worst he's a super guy to have on the bench. At best he's hitting 35 HRs a year, swinging between a few positions.

Yes his arb years will give him steady raises, but he will still be relatively cheap - exactly what they need if they wanna sign some choice blue chip free agents.
I agree with this. His ceiling may be higher though. He has exceptional power.
 

ponch73

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I get the possibility of trading high and all that, but Dalbec now has a career OPS of .821, with defense at first that - to the eye test at least - seems to be steadily improving. He won't stay this hot, but clearly he's adjusting to major league play.

And he's a controllable asset, something this site's members value a great deal. Being an older rookie, there might be sense in riding out his controllable years, which take him through age 31. That is - they control the prime of his prime. If Casas comes up late 2022 or early 2023, and there are too many good hitting corner infielders, well, that's a good problem to have. Dalbec can swing between first, third, and DH. At worst he's a super guy to have on the bench. At best he's hitting 35 HRs a year, swinging between a few positions.

Yes his arb years will give him steady raises, but he will still be relatively cheap - exactly what they need if they wanna sign some choice blue chip free agents.
Isn’t his ability to overcome adversity in the batter’s box and make adjustments all the more reason to hold on to him? What we have now in Dalbec appears to be a positive asset providing modest value currently. But there’s option value here as well — his ability to persevere and mature (e.g., better strike zone judgment) could lead to him becoming a substantially more valuable power hitter over time. I would hope that any contemplated trades involving Dalbec account for not just his current value but his possible future value, as well.

Personally, I would hold on to Dalbec. His ability to provide above average performance at 1B or 3B would for the next few years effectively subsidize payroll investments to shore up other weak spots in the roster like, for example, starting pitching.

Let’s also not rule out the possibility that Bloom could entice someone to MASSIVELY overpay for Casas.
 

Rovin Romine

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Yes his arb years will give him steady raises, but he will still be relatively cheap - exactly what they need if they wanna sign some choice blue chip free agents.
FWIW, Devers has two arb years before he's a FA for the 2024 season.
Dalbec is likely to hit his first year of arb in 2024, and be a FA for the 2027 season.
Casas might come up in mid 2022. Or not. But I don't think we'll see a roster crunch of DH types like we're seeing now.

JD is only here through the 2022 season, and he's a FA in 2023 (age 34). He may have some elite bat life left in him, but we'll know by the end of 2022 or sooner whether he's part of a future plan.

IMO, all this means if they think Dalbec's bat is for real, even if it's streaky, there's almost no way they trade him. He's not really blocking anyone. I mean, if Casas is en fuego, and JD extends for pennies, then sure, maybe you trade him for an upgrade somewhere else. Absent that, we're still going to need a 1B who can hit, the more so if we don't have an elite DH batter anymore.
 

sean1562

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I doubt Devers will agree to move to DH before he hits FA. Any FA contract he signs he will sign as a 3B with a great bat. If the Red Sox think that Devers will likely be a DH after 2024, they probably should not re-sign him.
 

Rovin Romine

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Isn’t it possible they see the future as Devers at DH, Dalbec at 3B, and Casas at 1b?
Well, the DH role does not have to be fixed. Assume Casas is a plus defender at 1B, and Devers settles in. . .but Dalbec remains passable at 1 and 3rd. You might end up with something like this:
Casas 80% 1B, 15% DH, 5% off.​
Devers 65% 3B, 30% DH, 5% off.​
Dalbec 35% 3B, 20% 1B, 40% DH, 5% off.​

(Leaves 15% at DH.)
 

azsoxpatsfan

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FWIW, Devers has two arb years before he's a FA for the 2024 season.
Dalbec is likely to hit his first year of arb in 2024, and be a FA for the 2027 season.
Casas might come up in mid 2022. Or not. But I don't think we'll see a roster crunch of DH types like we're seeing now.

JD is only here through the 2022 season, and he's a FA in 2023 (age 34). He may have some elite bat life left in him, but we'll know by the end of 2022 or sooner whether he's part of a future plan.

IMO, all this means if they think Dalbec's bat is for real, even if it's streaky, there's almost no way they trade him. He's not really blocking anyone. I mean, if Casas is en fuego, and JD extends for pennies, then sure, maybe you trade him for an upgrade somewhere else. Absent that, we're still going to need a 1B who can hit, the more so if we don't have an elite DH batter anymore.
Minor correction, JD is currently 34. He’ll be 36-37 by then
 

Rovin Romine

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Make it clear that by moving him to DH they'd be guaranteeing he leaves in 2 years and or demand a trade? The Sox could still do it anyway, but upsetting your best young player isn't exactly a great decision.
Of course they'd only be doing this if he:
a) sucks at 3rd and,​
b) they have a replacement.​
And given that they'd like to see him be a good 3rd baseman, I think it's a bit far fetched to think he'd be so upset by this he'd demand a trade.
 

scottyno

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Of course they'd only be doing this if he:
a) sucks at 3rd and,​
b) they have a replacement.​
And given that they'd like to see him be a good 3rd baseman, I think it's a bit far fetched to think he'd be so upset by this he'd demand a trade.
You think it's far fetched that a 24 year old who has never had a big payday, knows it's coming soon, and that this might be his one major contract, would want to be moved to a situation where he could prove he has value in the field rather than just be willing to be replaced already at this early stage of his career?
 

Rovin Romine

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You think it's far fetched that a 24 year old who has never had a big payday, knows it's coming soon, and that this might be his one major contract, would want to be moved to a situation where he could prove he has value in the field rather than just be willing to be replaced already at this early stage of his career?
No, Scotty. I'm saying they're likely to give him nearly every chance first. And if they do move him, it'll be pretty much an inevitability.
 

scottyno

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No, Scotty. I'm saying they're likely to give him nearly every chance first. And if they do move him, it'll be pretty much an inevitability.
So then you're saying it's the opposite of far fetched that he'd want a trade if they brought in a replacement to move him off 3rd base this early in his career