Three True Outcomes, The Bobby Dalbec Thread.

cantor44

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Dalbec's continued hitting surge is now starting to be a bit of good problem (during a terrible time) for the Red Sox. He's been, arguably, the team's best hitter for the last five weeks ...And starting to hit righties some, too. His pitch selection/plate discipline is clearly improved, perhaps the Scwarber influence (see, the shit works) ....Not sure I want his bat out of the line up, and sure was sad to see him taken out in the game 9/6 against TB, knowing his spot may full well come around again with the game on the line (and indeed it did).

But if you start playing him more, who sits?

Can't be Scwarber, he's the other best hitter during the last stretch. But if you don't want Schwarb in the outfield he bumps JD.

Could sit JD ... and with his recent struggles, and poor defense, maybe JD should sit some, as sacrilegious as that is to suggest. Then again, he hasn't been hapless, just not vintage JD. And you know it's still possible he could go on a tear any moment.

You could play JD or Schwarb in the outfield, but we know that degrades the D ... and if you do play them in the outfield who do you sit? Maybe Verdugo against lefties ....

Could sit Renfroe some, but his bat has been on fire, too, and his D is too important.

Perhaps, then, a rotation between Dalbec, JD, and Verdugo. It would be a demotion for JD, but maybe it's necessary?

Astonishing that it's come to this given how utterly overmatched Dalbec seemed for so long.

Anyway, let's hope this keeps being a good problem.
 

BaseballJones

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The last month (Aug 6-Sep 7) or so Dalbec has been ridiculous.

26 g, .370/.459/.849/1.308, 9 hr, 29 rbi
 

Rovin Romine

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The last month (Aug 6-Sep 7) or so Dalbec has been ridiculous.

26 g, .370/.459/.849/1.308, 9 hr, 29 rbi
I think it's great that he's improving, but FWIW, I think it's a somewhat empty line, if you look at his game logs:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=dalbebo01&t=b&year=2021

-In early August he shone in 3 blowouts in a row.
-On the 26th, he had his huge game against MN.
-Then the two HRs yesterday against a mop-up guy.

To the extent that's captured in WPA, only 2 of his games in the last month make his top 10 WPA games.

Again, he's made a real improvement - there's every reasonable expectation his propensity for clobbering will manifest in closer and more pivotal games.
 

BaseballJones

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I hear you, RR, but you'd have to do this same thing with everyone else to see if it's out of the ordinary. In other words, we can talk about blowouts and facing lesser quality relievers, but EVERYONE gets cracks at those guys too. You'd have to see if Nelson Cruz or Aaron Judge or whomever is getting similar production in what you might categorize as "empty" situations.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Dalbec has been very poor against power pitchers (210/269/339) with 4 bb/34 k in 67 PA. Power pitchers are defined as those in the top third of the league in strikeouts plus walks. He crushes finesse pitchers (bottom third) with 296/350/593 with 13 bb/57 k in 217 PA. Lousy against those who are neither. It’s a possible explanation for why his homers have done so little for the teams win probability.

Nelson Cruz, by comparison, crushed power pitchers (253/353/540) and finesse (313/379/586). Aaron Judge is weak against power (246/361/392) but hammers everyone else.

It makes sense that a guy with extreme strikeout tendencies is especially weak against pitchers who get a lot of K’s.
 

Rovin Romine

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I hear you, RR, but you'd have to do this same thing with everyone else to see if it's out of the ordinary. In other words, we can talk about blowouts and facing lesser quality relievers, but EVERYONE gets cracks at those guys too. You'd have to see if Nelson Cruz or Aaron Judge or whomever is getting similar production in what you might categorize as "empty" situations.
Sure.

Judge's WPA is 2.888 for the season.
Cruz's WPA is 1.237.
Dalbec's is (negative) - 0.122.

Judge's best month (not cherry picked) was August, 28 games with a 187 OPS+, and a WPA of 1.573.
Cruz's best month was June, 24 games with a 225 OPS+, and a WPA of .698

Dalbec's OPS+ for the past 28 days was: 255. (Close enough, but it could be higher than that even.)
From Aug 6 to Aug 7, 25 games, Dalbec's WPA is 0.518.

Yeah, SSS but still kinda empty. Highest OPS+, lowest WPA.
 

Diamond Don Aase

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I hear you, RR, but you'd have to do this same thing with everyone else to see if it's out of the ordinary. In other words, we can talk about blowouts and facing lesser quality relievers, but EVERYONE gets cracks at those guys too. You'd have to see if Nelson Cruz or Aaron Judge or whomever is getting similar production in what you might categorize as "empty" situations.
These are the pitchers that surrendered an extra-base hit to Dalbec in the five games RR notes have driven his recent production:
  • Edgar Garcia, David Hess, Adam Plutko, and Cesar Valdez: All subsequently Designated for Assignment
  • Dusten Knight: A 31-year-old making his MLB debut this season; subsequently demoted
  • Spenser Watkins: A 29-year-old making his MLB debut this season; subsequently demoted
  • Dietrich Enns: A 30-year-old whose only MLB experience prior to this season was four innings pitched in 2017; subsequently demoted
  • John Gant: Posted a 5.12 FIP with the Cardinals before being traded to the Twins to partially offset the deadline day dump of J.A. Happ’s salary
That list reads like the pitching staff from a video game that failed to purchase MLBPA licensing rights. At least half of the above pitchers are as likely to spend next season either pitching from 61’6” or developing a taste for samgyeopsal as they are to return to MLB.

The truncated 2020 season has led to teams turning anywhere and everywhere for pitching to cover for injuries and innings limits. Many members of this broken glass class have shown nothing in common with MLB pitchers other than briefly pitching in MLB. Assigning predictive qualities based on Dalbec’s performance against them is little more than wishcasting.
 
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BaseballJones

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Sure.

Judge's WPA is 2.888 for the season.
Cruz's WPA is 1.237.
Dalbec's is (negative) - 0.122.

Judge's best month (not cherry picked) was August, 28 games with a 187 OPS+, and a WPA of 1.573.
Cruz's best month was June, 24 games with a 225 OPS+, and a WPA of .698

Dalbec's OPS+ for the past 28 days was: 255. (Close enough, but it could be higher than that even.)
From Aug 6 to Aug 7, 25 games, Dalbec's WPA is 0.518.

Yeah, SSS but still kinda empty. Highest OPS+, lowest WPA.
My point wasn't whether Dalbec is as good as those guys. It's whether Dalbec's distribution is unique and thus deserves to be called "empty". Did you do a game-by-game look at other hitters and see how "empty" their stats are? It might end up being the case that Dalbec's got a disproportionate amount of his production in "empty" situations compared to other hitters, and your point would stand. But it might be the case that quite a few other people we consider to be good hitters have similar distributions as Dalbec.

I don't know because I haven't looked. And I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm simply asking if you've done this same exercise with a bunch of other hitters.
 

BaseballJones

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These are the pitchers that surrendered an extra-base hit to Dalbec in the five games RR notes have driven his recent production:
  • Edgar Garcia, David Hess, Adam Plutko, and Cesar Valdez: All subsequently Designated for Assignment
  • Dusten Knight: A 31-year-old making his MLB debut this season; subsequently demoted
  • Spenser Watkins: A 29-year-old making his MLB debut this season; subsequently demoted
  • Dietrich Enns: A 30-year-old whose only MLB experience prior to this season was four innings pitched in 2017; subsequently demoted
  • John Gant: Posted a 5.12 FIP with the Cardinals before being traded to the Twins to partially offset the deadline day dump of J.A. Happ’s salary
That list reads like the pitching staff from a video game that failed to purchase MLBPA licensing rights. At last half of the above pitchers are as likely to spend next season either pitching from 61’6” or developing a taste for samgyeopsal as returning to MLB.

The truncated 2020 season has led to teams turning anywhere and everywhere for pitching to cover for injuries and innings limits. Many members of this broken glass class have shown nothing in common with MLB pitchers other than briefly pitching in MLB. Assigning predictive qualities based on Dalbec’s performance against them is little more than wishcasting.
I don't think any of us are assigning predictive qualities here.
 

Niastri

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I don't think any of us are assigning predictive qualities here.
I am. If Dalbec can have the brief glimpses of excellent hitting he showed at times last year and (more importantly) the past month, it sure seems predictive that he can be a productive hitter going forward. Maybe even good enough maybe to stick at 1b or DH. Which would make him extremely valuable through his arbitration years.

I agree that nobody I've heard is suggesting Dalbec is going to hit like this going forward, but my ceiling and floor for him have gone up over the last 30 games.
 

Rovin Romine

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My point wasn't whether Dalbec is as good as those guys. It's whether Dalbec's distribution is unique and thus deserves to be called "empty". Did you do a game-by-game look at other hitters and see how "empty" their stats are? It might end up being the case that Dalbec's got a disproportionate amount of his production in "empty" situations compared to other hitters, and your point would stand. But it might be the case that quite a few other people we consider to be good hitters have similar distributions as Dalbec.

I don't know because I haven't looked. And I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm simply asking if you've done this same exercise with a bunch of other hitters.
Nope - feel free to add data. :)

PS - not beyond Judge and Cruz, and I used WPA across a month, as you were pointing out a hot month for Dalbec's slash lines.

You may have another way of measuring.
 

nvalvo

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The cause for optimism isn’t the home runs — we already knew he had ludicrous power — it’s that his strikeout rate is lower. ~25% over the last five weeks, rather than more than 35% pre-August.

Some of that is facing more favorable pitchers, but he’s also seeing more RHP. And unlike the flukey HR, many of which came in blowouts, K rate is a pretty fast-stabilizing stat, so a big reduction like this over 100 PA suggests an adjustment has been made (he’s also pulling the ball more FWIW).

Now we wait to see how he handles however the league adjusts to whatever he’s doing now.
 

Brohamer of the Gods

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In addition to the lower strikeout rate is the increase in walks. He had 13 walks through the end of July, and 11 since August 1. If he can actually become a Three True Outcomes player versus the 1.5 True Outcomes hitter he was through July (Ks and occasional HRs), he could be a valuable part of the lineup. What I don't know is if has changed his approach, or if some of the AAAA pitchers he has feasted off the past month were incapable of throwing pitches close enough for him to chase.
 

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In addition to the lower strikeout rate is the increase in walks. He had 13 walks through the end of July, and 11 since August 1. If he can actually become a Three True Outcomes player versus the 1.5 True Outcomes hitter he was through July (Ks and occasional HRs), he could be a valuable part of the lineup. What I don't know is if has changed his approach, or if some of the AAAA pitchers he has feasted off the past month were incapable of throwing pitches close enough for him to chase.
What @Rovin Romine's excuse now? Bobby Dalbec just homered against Carlos Rodon a pretty good pitcher. But it doesn't count because they were behind 4 to 0 I guess
 

scottyno

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My point wasn't whether Dalbec is as good as those guys. It's whether Dalbec's distribution is unique and thus deserves to be called "empty". Did you do a game-by-game look at other hitters and see how "empty" their stats are? It might end up being the case that Dalbec's got a disproportionate amount of his production in "empty" situations compared to other hitters, and your point would stand. But it might be the case that quite a few other people we consider to be good hitters have similar distributions as Dalbec.

I don't know because I haven't looked. And I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm simply asking if you've done this same exercise with a bunch of other hitters.
For fun, and not counting today:

Dalbec does have a 165 tOPS+ (ops+ relative to his overall stats) when the score is 4+ runs apart, compared to one of 83 when the score is less than 4 runs, and he's been particularly bad close and late with a 26 tOPS+ (only 49 PAs), but with 2 out and RISP he has a 140, so who knows if you'd consider that "clutch" or "unclutch". Likely they're all such small samples that it doesn't really mean anything.

Judge has fairly insignificant splits, he's about the same hitter in any situation, though this year he's been extra good close and late.

Cruz also mashes the ball in blowouts, 162 tOPS+ when it's 4+ runs compared to a 90 when it's under 4, and he's been horrid with 2 out and RISP.

What does that all mean? Probably nothing, since I don't think clutch hitting stats are very consistent year to year, or even month to month. I'd assume league wide splits would make for a tOPS+ to almost always be over 100 when the score isn't close as you'd be facing worse pitchers, but I don't think it's fair to call Dalbec's production empty, quite frankly it's pretty impressive that he's back to being over league average as a hitter overall and even has a WPA at all approaching 0 after how bad he started.
 

cantor44

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I think it's great that he's improving, but FWIW, I think it's a somewhat empty line, if you look at his game logs:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=dalbebo01&t=b&year=2021

-In early August he shone in 3 blowouts in a row.
-On the 26th, he had his huge game against MN.
-Then the two HRs yesterday against a mop-up guy.

To the extent that's captured in WPA, only 2 of his games in the last month make his top 10 WPA games.

Again, he's made a real improvement - there's every reasonable expectation his propensity for clobbering will manifest in closer and more pivotal games.
His HR tonight (9/10) was a bomb against the league's ERA leader. Was at the game - hardest hit ball of the night. He's getting better.
 

richgedman'sghost

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His HR tonight (9/10) was a bomb against the league's ERA leader. Was at the game - hardest hit ball of the night. He's getting better.
Since you were at the game tonight, you obviously were not watching the NESN feed. Both Eck and Ellis were in favor of pinchhitting Shaw for Hernandez and felt that Kiki looked out of sorts in his second game back
 

nvalvo

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For fun, and not counting today:

Dalbec does have a 165 tOPS+ (ops+ relative to his overall stats) when the score is 4+ runs apart, compared to one of 83 when the score is less than 4 runs, and he's been particularly bad close and late with a 26 tOPS+ (only 49 PAs), but with 2 out and RISP he has a 140, so who knows if you'd consider that "clutch" or "unclutch". Likely they're all such small samples that it doesn't really mean anything.

Judge has fairly insignificant splits, he's about the same hitter in any situation, though this year he's been extra good close and late.

Cruz also mashes the ball in blowouts, 162 tOPS+ when it's 4+ runs compared to a 90 when it's under 4, and he's been horrid with 2 out and RISP.

What does that all mean? Probably nothing, since I don't think clutch hitting stats are very consistent year to year, or even month to month. I'd assume league wide splits would make for a tOPS+ to almost always be over 100 when the score isn't close as you'd be facing worse pitchers, but I don't think it's fair to call Dalbec's production empty, quite frankly it's pretty impressive that he's back to being over league average as a hitter overall and even has a WPA at all approaching 0 after how bad he started.
This made me curious, so I checked.

The tOPS+ numbers for MLB as a whole are strikingly flat, except one.

"Late and Close" for MLB in 2021 has a tOPS+ of 91, which probably reflects the impact of LaRussan bullpen strategy, but by score there is no discernible effect. Tie games? tOPS+ of 100. 1 run? tOPS+ of 100. 2 runs? tOPS+ of 100. 3 runs? tOPS+ of 100. 4 runs? tOPS+ of 100. MORE than four? tOPS+ of 101. But of course, those numbers include both the leading and trailing teams, who are going to have different bullpen strategies.

Teams that are ahead have a tOPS+ of 106; teams that are behind have a tOPS+ of 95.

So yeah, Dalbec is an outlier for the league, but also the team: Boston is actually the best team for high-leverage offensive stats, with a sOPS+ in high-leverage situations (relative to the league) of 127, trailed by basically all the other teams that have surprised in a positive direction (Seattle, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Cincinnati). Seattle is the really striking one, because they have a high-leverage tOPS+ (i.e. relative to their own performance in other situations, not the league's performance in high leverage) of 140 — !?! — just in case you were wondering how the Mariners had carried their -52 run differential into the Wild Card hunt. (Boston has a +52 run differential.)
 

The Gray Eagle

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From yesterday's Glob:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/09/11/sports/whether-red-sox-gave-bobby-dalbec-second-chance-or-not-hes-run-with-it/

Dalbec's thoughts on why he has improved:
Dalbec points to the mental and physical adjustments he made at the plate, specifically the idea of treating every pitch like it’s the best one he’s going to get.

“If I do that, I’m not chasing guys around the [strike] zone and hitting the pitches they want me to swing at,” Dalbec said. “I’m comfortable taking strikes in the zone knowing that’s not the pitch I want. Then just battle with two strikes.”

Dalbec’s well-honed patience at the plate served him well in the minors. It betrayed him in the majors as more experienced pitchers got ahead in the count and took command of the at-bat.

Even if Dalbec made contact, it was often weak after a defensive swing.
Cora's take:
“He drove the ball to right-center last season. This season there were a lot of empty fly balls to right field,” manager Alex Cora said. “Little by little he’s been making adjustments.”

Cora sees better timing at the plate.

“That’s the bottom line,” the manager said. “When you do that, you recognize pitches, your swing decisions are a lot better and you’re not late.

“When you’re late you make every pitch look the same. The fastball, the breaking ball, the changeup, everything looks the same. Now there’s separation.

“You can see it, he lands [his foot], he sees the pitch, and he reacts. He’s able to pull the ball with power. The quality of the at-bats are much, much better.

“There’s not as many swings and misses in the strike zone. You can see the ball and recognize spin. Swing decision-wise, it’s very tough when you’re late. It’s great to watch.”
Neither one is necessarily correct about the reasons for the improvement, but their thoughts are interesting.
 

Rwillh11

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Was he a particularly patient hitter in the minors?
He had a 14.3% walk rate in A+ in 2018, and a 15.5% walk rate in AA in 2019, so with an OBP of.370. So he was pretty patient down there. For reference he is only at a 5.9% walk rate this year.
 

cantor44

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Since you were at the game tonight, you obviously were not watching the NESN feed. Both Eck and Ellis were in favor of pinchhitting Shaw for Hernandez and felt that Kiki looked out of sorts in his second game back
Kiki being out of sorts wasn't evident to the naked eye at the park; though, maybe there is truth to it, and he felt out of sorts as they were observing. Damn, he could have said something to Cora himself. Those things are always possible (hence any criticism can be universally parried with "they have information you don't") ...Health provided, I sure as shit hope Cora doesn't overplay his hand with the Shaw pinch hitting festival; or certainly not for Hernandez. I understand with Vazquez or Iglesias ...but for the core guys at the top of line up, even R vs R, I don't see how Shaw is a better option ...
 

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Seems like the absolutely perfect candidate to sell high on. Fantastic second half and cheap. Replace him with a great fielding 1B and use him to try and grab a quality starter?

This team goes nowhere in 2022 without improved pitching and defense.
 

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Seems like the absolutely perfect candidate to sell high on. Fantastic second half and cheap. Replace him with a great fielding 1B and use him to try and grab a quality starter?

This team goes nowhere in 2022 without improved pitching and defense.
Do you think 5 weeks of a hot bat weighed against his overall barely above average offensive performance this year and bad defense is going to be enough to get a quality starter for him? I've got some doubts on that.
 

chawson

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Do you think 5 weeks of a hot bat weighed against his overall barely above average offensive performance this year and bad defense is going to be enough to get a quality starter for him? I've got some doubts on that.
I think it could get a promising starter, yes. A new DH rule could mean some more NL teams than usual may be shopping for bats.

C.J. Cron (+4 DRS at 1B) is still a good target for us, and Colorado may be a good trading partner to ship Dalbec. I expect the Yankees will keep Rizzo, the Braves keep Freeman, and the Giants keep Belt.
 

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I don’t think anyone has much of an idea what NY will do with their infield this winter. They have Voit, LeMahieu, Gleyber and Urshela under contract, a couple of very good SS prospects who should be ready in 2022-23 (Peraza/Volpe), and that’s before getting to FAs like the shortstops and Rizzo.
 

shaggydog2000

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I think it could get a promising starter, yes. A new DH rule could mean some more NL teams than usual may be shopping for bats.

C.J. Cron (+4 DRS at 1B) is still a good target for us, and Colorado may be a good trading partner to ship Dalbec. I expect the Yankees will keep Rizzo, the Braves keep Freeman, and the Giants keep Belt.
So what do you think that starter would look like? AA prospect with 4th starter ceiling? AAA prospect with a handful of mediocre MLB starts? Veteran 4th starter type? Established young player with years of control?
 

chawson

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So what do you think that starter would look like? AA prospect with 4th starter ceiling? AAA prospect with a handful of mediocre MLB starts? Veteran 4th starter type? Established young player with years of control?
It may not work as a one-for-one deal. I wonder if Dalbec could be paired with Pivetta or another pitcher to a team who sees their window starting in ‘23.

I really have no idea and trade hypotheticals can really rile up, but to answer your question: The Twins seem like a good trading partner for us. I’m really interested in Maeda, Rogers, Buxton and Garver, and think the Sox could consider taking back one year of Sanó (not a terrible first baseman!) to help facilitate a deal. Elieser Hernandez is one of many interesting pitchers in Miami. I like Brubaker in Pittsburgh. The A’s (who may be downsizing) have one year of Manaea and Bassitt and three of Montas they seem likely to shop. Dalbec for Josh Bell and Joe Ross is kind of interesting. Would the Padres consider shopping Blake Snell? Would we want him?
 

shaggydog2000

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It may not work as a one-for-one deal. I wonder if Dalbec could be paired with Pivetta or another pitcher to a team who sees their window starting in ‘23.

I really have no idea and trade hypotheticals can really rile up, but to answer your question: The Twins seem like a good trading partner for us. I’m really interested in Maeda, Rogers, Buxton and Garver, and think the Sox could consider taking back one year of Sanó (not a terrible first baseman!) to help facilitate a deal. Elieser Hernandez is one of many interesting pitchers in Miami. I like Brubaker in Pittsburgh. The A’s (who may be downsizing) have one year of Manaea and Bassitt and three of Montas they seem likely to shop. Dalbec for Josh Bell and Joe Ross is kind of interesting. Would the Padres consider shopping Blake Snell? Would we want him?
Ok, so you're imagining some moving parts here. I think Dalbec straight up for a cost controlled established young pitcher is just not going to happen, no matter what he does in the next few weeks so I was wondering what people thought, because those are not a commodity teams want to give up.
 

chawson

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Ok, so you're imagining some moving parts here. I think Dalbec straight up for a cost controlled established young pitcher is just not going to happen, no matter what he does in the next few weeks so I was wondering what people thought, because those are not a commodity teams want to give up.
If by cost-controlled you mean strictly pre-arb, you’re probably right. Some pitchers in their first or second arb years could work.

I’m expecting a lot of moving parts this offseason anyway. For one-on-one pre-arb starters, I could see Brubaker, Austin Gomber or one of the Miami guys (Zach Thompson?) but you’re right there’s not a ton of options.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I don’t think anyone has much of an idea what NY will do with their infield this winter. They have Voit, LeMahieu, Gleyber and Urshela under contract, a couple of very good SS prospects who should be ready in 2022-23 (Peraza/Volpe), and that’s before getting to FAs like the shortstops and Rizzo.
I can absolutely guarantee that Cashman will get the biggest FA out there, Correa and then use the mL depth to bring in bullpen arms and young starters.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Ok, so you're imagining some moving parts here. I think Dalbec straight up for a cost controlled established young pitcher is just not going to happen, no matter what he does in the next few weeks so I was wondering what people thought, because those are not a commodity teams want to give up.
I dunno.... if he can continue to hit well, show improved defense (and continues through a few playoff games....) I could totally imagine him being dealt to Oakland in a package to bring back a starter. That said... I'm positive he'll be starting at 1B next season.
 

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One would hope that the decisions on other players will determine what happens to Bobby next year. What the plans for JD, Schwaber, and possibly even shifting Raffy to 1B should all be decided before figuring out if Bobby has a place on the team. Dalbec only got 123 PAs in AAA in 2019. In a just world, he would have had at least a half season of AAA in 2020. If there isn't a place for him in Boston in 22, either Worcester is calling, or there is always a buyer for cost controlled power - though the return may not be very much.
 

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This team desperately needs the new John Olerud. But I'm not sure an all time great fielding first baseman with a career .400 OBP exists anymore.
 

WheresDewey

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It depends on how much you believe his new hitting prowess is real and how much is catching lightning in a bottle. He's obviously not likely to sustain such high numbers, but it looks like he has made some real improvements. With an off season to work on his fielding, I think he's probably worth more to the Sox than anyone they'll get in a trade.
 

MonstahsInLeft

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It depends on how much you believe his new hitting prowess is real and how much is catching lightning in a bottle. He's obviously not likely to sustain such high numbers, but it looks like he has made some real improvements. With an off season to work on his fielding, I think he's probably worth more to the Sox than anyone they'll get in a trade.
I think that's where I am. It's hard to believe that somebody who came up as a 3B can't be at least an avg. fielder at 1st, and typically you'd think his defensive floor would be higher than most 1B's who end up there because their defense has been poor for a long time.

I'm still hopeful he won't continue to boot ground balls over there and really just needs reps to learn how to corral all the different throws that he's on the receiving end of. A cheap stop gap to Casas would allow them to save their trade/money resources to fill other holes.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
13,650
Dalbec's major league career so far...

First 23 g (2020): 92 pa, .263/.359/.600/.959, .394 babip, 8 hr (11.5 pa/hr)
Next 85 g (2021): 296 pa, .216/.260/.399/.659, .312 babip, 11 hr (26.9 pa/hr)
Last 35 g (2021): 115 pa, .314/.391/.735/1.127, .350 babip, 11 hr (10.5 pa/hr)

This could be seen as simply a recent hot streak. Or it could, if we go back to last year, be seen as a pretty decent MLB with nice power that teams adjusted to in 2021, and it took him a few months to adjust to their adjustments, but when he did, he became a good hitter with nice power again.

Clearly, his current 35-game pace is unsustainable, but if we take his total MLB career to date into account, he's a pretty helpful MLB hitter. His career line:

143g, 503 pa, .246/.308/.509/.817, 30 hr, 88 rbi, 112 ops+

For a guy making league minimum, if he shores up his defense, that's more than acceptable as a bottom-third-of-the-order bat.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
3,409
Dalbec's major league career so far...

First 23 g (2020): 92 pa, .263/.359/.600/.959, .394 babip, 8 hr (11.5 pa/hr)
Next 85 g (2021): 296 pa, .216/.260/.399/.659, .312 babip, 11 hr (26.9 pa/hr)
Last 35 g (2021): 115 pa, .314/.391/.735/1.127, .350 babip, 11 hr (10.5 pa/hr)

This could be seen as simply a recent hot streak. Or it could, if we go back to last year, be seen as a pretty decent MLB with nice power that teams adjusted to in 2021, and it took him a few months to adjust to their adjustments, but when he did, he became a good hitter with nice power again.

Clearly, his current 35-game pace is unsustainable, but if we take his total MLB career to date into account, he's a pretty helpful MLB hitter. His career line:

143g, 503 pa, .246/.308/.509/.817, 30 hr, 88 rbi, 112 ops+

For a guy making league minimum, if he shores up his defense, that's more than acceptable as a bottom-third-of-the-order bat.
If he can be a consistent hitter at those numbers, I suspect his OBP would begin to improve. Wondering if he was slotted in front of a generally better hitter... say Devers, if pitchers would try and pitch around him a little more to hope he'd chase. But either way... bottom third of the order hitter with those numbers and acceptable defense at his salary is great for '22 and, again... IF he can sustain something like that for a full season, if the Sox think Casas is ready in '23 he'd bring back a very good player in a deal straight up. If he's streaky like this again in '22 with poor defense then other GM's I'm sure would see his hot streaks as unsustainable and a liability in a straight up deal.
I really like him and think he shows a good attitude on the field. Hoping for the best for him because it doesn't seem (at least) that he's a malcontent or a bad influence.
 

shaggydog2000

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Apr 5, 2007
8,691
If he can be a consistent hitter at those numbers, I suspect his OBP would begin to improve. Wondering if he was slotted in front of a generally better hitter... say Devers, if pitchers would try and pitch around him a little more to hope he'd chase. But either way... bottom third of the order hitter with those numbers and acceptable defense at his salary is great for '22 and, again... IF he can sustain something like that for a full season, if the Sox think Casas is ready in '23 he'd bring back a very good player in a deal straight up. If he's streaky like this again in '22 with poor defense then other GM's I'm sure would see his hot streaks as unsustainable and a liability in a straight up deal.
I really like him and think he shows a good attitude on the field. Hoping for the best for him because it doesn't seem (at least) that he's a malcontent or a bad influence.
First you rake, then they walk you. A brilliant man once said that.

I think he is worth a lot more if he plays for the Sox next year, shows some consistency, and is less awful as a fielder. Then if Casas forces his way onto the roster you'll get something for Dalbec. Before then I think he's not worth much.
 

Brohamer of the Gods

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Jul 14, 2005
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Warwick, RI
I still think that Dalbec's key to success is improving his walk rate. Compare him to Schwarber this year. Kyle has 11 more PAs than Dalbec (522-511), and he only has 2 more hits (94-92), but is leading in walks 52-24. If Bobby can turn just one flailing strikeout a week into a walk, his numbers would be Schwarberesque. Which isn't a guy you build your team around, but would be a nice option at 1B before hitting free agency.