Three True Outcomes, The Bobby Dalbec Thread.

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
3,409
I really want to like Dalbec. He’s obviously intriguing with his power but how long of a leash should he be given? When can a true determination of his skills be ascertained? At this point it seems he should only be started against lefties and as a pinch hitter but perhaps he could continue to improve against righties given more chances….? Where do posters here see him in ‘22?
 

Humphrey

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2010
1,766
Fine if Dalbec's ABs diminish when he cools off, but NOT if they go to Franchy or Santana. Or, perhaps as bad at this point, to Vasquez via playing he or Plawecki at first.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
14,906
Maine
I really want to like Dalbec. He’s obviously intriguing with his power but how long of a leash should he be given? When can a true determination of his skills be ascertained? At this point it seems he should only be started against lefties and as a pinch hitter but perhaps he could continue to improve against righties given more chances….? Where do posters here see him in ‘22?
With the caveat that it is the Orioles, Dalbec has done all his damage the last couple days against RHP (3 HR, 2 2B in 7 AB). It is encouraging even with that caveat.

I think his 2022 role is to be determined. If he continues to build on what he's done of late (certainly not that hot, but keeps hitting in general), and either Schwarber takes to 1B or Cordero shows signs of breaking out, I could see going into 2022 with a 1B platoon as the plan. Or, going out and getting a veteran LHH 1B to split time with him. If he goes back to being anemic over the final 6-7 weeks, he should be penciled in as Worcester's 1B/3B/DH at most. Maybe try to find a trade partner intrigued by his upside.
 

ponch73

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jun 14, 2006
714
Stumptown via Chelmsford
Dalbec’s recent resurgence at the plate has been a welcome storyline and distraction from the Red Sox post-trade deadline W-L apocalypse.

That being said – and while I’m certain they likely have no predictive value — two particular 2021 splits stand out to me:

Late and Close (43 PA): .233/.275/.508
Not Late and Close (309 PA): .294/.477/.771

Winning by > 4 Runs (75 PA): .333/.597/.930
Not Winning by > 4 Runs (277 PA): .272/.402/.676
 

Brohamer of the Gods

Well-Known Member
Silver Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
2,726
Warwick, RI
Part of Bobby's problem is that with only 18 walks, right now he is more of a two outcome hitter. If he had 20 more walks, just 1 more a week, his OBP/OPS would go up 25 points.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
14,906
Maine
Dalbec’s recent resurgence at the plate has been a welcome storyline and distraction from the Red Sox post-trade deadline W-L apocalypse.

That being said – and while I’m certain they likely have no predictive value — two particular 2021 splits stand out to me:

Late and Close (43 PA): .233/.275/.508
Not Late and Close (309 PA): .294/.477/.771

Winning by > 4 Runs (75 PA): .333/.597/.930
Not Winning by > 4 Runs (277 PA): .272/.402/.676
Those say to me that he's pressing and perhaps trying too hard to make something happen when the pressure is high. Though the winning by 4 vs not could in part be a product of his own actions. As in, if he's having a good day at the plate, the offense is likely to be scoring more runs, leading to him continue to have a good day while the team is up big (like last night).

Like you say, not likely predictive in any way, but also something he can get better at strictly through experience. The more he hits in late and close situations, the more he may relax enough to hit the same way he does in not late and close.
 

billy ashley

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,043
Washington DC
I'm happy he's performed well recently and still believe he could be a useful major league piece as a cheap DH for some club... but his defense at first has been absolutely brutal.

Even if he sees his BB rate return to what it was before and becomes a .800 OPS hitter (I really believe he could be that) I really don't think he's a long-term solution at 1B. With Casas so close to MLB ready, I'm really unsure of what to make for Delbec's future with Boston.
 

BringBackMo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
143
Dalbec’s recent resurgence at the plate has been a welcome storyline and distraction from the Red Sox post-trade deadline W-L apocalypse.

That being said – and while I’m certain they likely have no predictive value — two particular 2021 splits stand out to me:

Late and Close (43 PA): .233/.275/.508
Not Late and Close (309 PA): .294/.477/.771

Winning by > 4 Runs (75 PA): .333/.597/.930
Not Winning by > 4 Runs (277 PA): .272/.402/.676
Those sample sizes are small enough that if they indicate anything other than normal variance it’s that, in late and close situations, hitters are more likely to be facing top relievers, with better stuff, who are more difficult to hit in any situations.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
3,409
Those sample sizes are small enough that if they indicate anything other than normal variance it’s that, in late and close situations, hitters are more likely to be facing top relievers, with better stuff, who are more difficult to hit in any situations.
Also if the score gets a little distance between them.... the opposition is likely to bring in their shittier BP arms too.
But the better his OPS looks, the more value he could bring. I suspect he'll be on the team in '22... hopefully in a DH/1B/3B platoon situation and he can continue to put up numbers that another team will value.
 

BringBackMo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
143
I'm happy he's performed well recently and still believe he could be a useful major league piece as a cheap DH for some club... but his defense at first has been absolutely brutal.

Even if he sees his BB rate return to what it was before and becomes a .800 OPS hitter (I really believe he could be that) I really don't think he's a long-term solution at 1B. With Casas so close to MLB ready, I'm really unsure of what to make for Delbec's future with Boston.
I agree with this assessment overall, and I’d add that Dalbec has been streaky during his entire major and minor league career. If this stretch somehow works out to be a turning point and he becomes a more consistent hitter, THAT will turn out to be much more surprising to me than if he goes into another prolonged stretch of underperformance a week and a half from now.

As I mentioned in the other thread, however, I’m less certain than some that he doesn’t actually have a future in Boston. Bloom placed large bets on Blaze Jordan and Jud Fabian in the past two drafts, and he seems to still be infatuated with Franchy’s potential. In other words, I think he’s willing to accept a below-average hit tool in players with plus-plus raw power. (Although the Sox Prospects guys were saying scouts now believe Blaze might actually have a better-than-expected hit tool.) Dalbec, of course, can send them into orbit with anybody, and going back to last season, he actually has a track record of actual, albeit rare, periods of destroying the ball. I just think there’s a chance Bloom won’t give up yet on the possibility that Bobby D figures something out.
 

BringBackMo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
143
I'm not sure this tells us much. While there's a big difference from the less-pressure situations, SLG% of 676 and 508 can stand on their own. Its like a guy with a platoon split that has him at 995 vs LHP and "only" 850 against RHP.
Could be wrong but I think those are OPS.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
803
Dalbec’s recent resurgence at the plate has been a welcome storyline and distraction from the Red Sox post-trade deadline W-L apocalypse.

That being said – and while I’m certain they likely have no predictive value — two particular 2021 splits stand out to me:

Late and Close (43 PA): .233/.275/.508
Not Late and Close (309 PA): .294/.477/.771

Winning by > 4 Runs (75 PA): .333/.597/.930
Not Winning by > 4 Runs (277 PA): .272/.402/.676
I think this is all related to his massive problems against power pitchers. He’s hitting 206/265/333 with 4 bb and 36 k in 68 PA vs power pitchers (pitchers in top third in league in K+BB). He crushes finesse pitchers to the tune of 282/333/559. Against relievers (who are going to skew towards power pitchers) he’s 213/263/413 with 8 bb/66 k in 171 PA.

So he will do well against the AAA pitchers that the O’s roll out, and the end of the bullpen type guys who are pitching in blowouts or when everyone else has pitched, but will continue to struggle in big spots when facing strikeout pitchers.
 

cantor44

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2020
701
Chicago, IL
What's amazing to me is that his 162 game average is now approaching the kind of hitter I think the Sox felt they had with him, given his MiLB record (power but lower average): .241 BA, 30 HR, 783 OPS ....

I mean, after really being a horrible hitter for four months, his MLB totals are at least, well, that of a MLB player.

He's an older rookie, but he may well still get better ....If he could become a 250 hitter who hits 30 HR and can walk a bit more ... well, that's pretty good!
 

cantor44

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2020
701
Chicago, IL
I suspect Dalbec's journey will have him bounce around the league, struggling, eventually landing with the A's for his 32-36 seasons, where suddenly he'll hit 35 HR/yr for a few years, and we'll think about what coulda been ...
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
16,501
What's amazing to me is that his 162 game average is now approaching the kind of hitter I think the Sox felt they had with him, given his MiLB record (power but lower average): .241 BA, 30 HR, 783 OPS ....

I mean, after really being a horrible hitter for four months, his MLB totals are at least, well, that of a MLB player.

He's an older rookie, but he may well still get better ....If he could become a 250 hitter who hits 30 HR and can walk a bit more ... well, that's pretty good!
36bb/207k in that 162 game average.

I don't think he'll ever become a .250 hitter, but I think he may have a season or two where he hits around .250, hit 30 HRs and draw walks because of it. I just think they'll be with some other team like the A's when he's around 30. Maybe he'll have a Brandon Moss type career, but Moss had the benefit of hitting lefty and didn't have nearly the split Dalbec has. Weirdly enough, Dalbec is already a career .241 hitter to date. I see his as closer to a .225 guy,. It's possible I'm wrong and he's not that far off from being where he needs to be.

He's also shown to run incredibly cold or hot and not really much in between. His current 13 game stretch he has 4bb/7k in 42 PA/36 AB. During that time, he's slashing .389/.476/.972 with 10 extra base hits.

For his career he has struck out in 40.2% of his at bats (not using PA since we are talking batting average). He homers in 5.9% of his AB. He would have to have a .354 BAbip to hit .250. He is hitting .236 on a .328 BAbip now. If he cut down his K rate to 35% of his AB, he would need a .324 BAbip to hit .250. Cut it to 30%, and the BAbip needed is .298.

If he could improve his BB% closer to 9% instead of the 6.5% (5.3%), he could easily get by hitting .236. Give him a 9.0% BB% this year, and his slash line is .236/.326/.455. Arroyo has a .324 OBP/.453 slugging that is good for a 105 OPS. Dalbec would be right around there in his first full season.

I don't really know what to make of his year. I'd rather they not give him another chance but if he finishes September hot, it's hard to argue against it. A good September would probably give him trade value too.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
803
The problem is that unless Schwarber can play first, there aren’t a ton of great options for next year, at least via free agency. I’m going to lead the campaign to sign Mark Canha who would be a great fit but other than that, it looks like another year for Dalbec unless the Sox make a trade.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
5,161
Boston, MA
I don't think it's possible for Dalbec to drop his strikeout rate much. He just doesn't make contact at anything close to an average level. For the season, his in the zone swing rate and chase rate are basically MLB average. But while the average MLB player makes contact with 84.5% of pitches in the zone, Bobby is only at 72.3%. Outside the zone is even worse. It's 62.2% for the average player and he's at 48.2%.

He has two choices for striking out less. Change his swing so he makes more contact (and hopefully doesn't lose much power). Or he becomes much better than average at pitch recognition and stops swinging at anything outside the zone. Neither strike me as something that are going to be particularly easy for him to do.
 

scottyno

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
8,253
Kind of ironic that at this point Dalbec's hitting wouldn't really be a problem if his fielding were serviceable. Mitch Moreland put up a 109 ops+ as a semi full time player with the Sox, after another homer and walk today Dalbec isn't going to be too far from that for the season.

The difference of course is that Mitch was +16 DRS at 1st for the Sox, which made him overall not great, but perfectly adequate for what he was paid, and Dalbec is a -7 DRS in 2/3rds of a season which makes him terrible.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
803
I’m coming around on Bobby’s bat, but if he can’t play first base competently, what’s the future look like? The team is in desperate need of pre arb production so I imagine the job is his to lose next year or until Casas is ready, but can the Sox really go into the next 4-5+ years with below average defensive players at 3b and SS? If you extend X and Devers, where are they playing in a few years?
 

scottyno

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
8,253
I’m coming around on Bobby’s bat, but if he can’t play first base competently, what’s the future look like? The team is in desperate need of pre arb production so I imagine the job is his to lose next year or until Casas is ready, but can the Sox really go into the next 4-5+ years with below average defensive players at 3b and SS? If you extend X and Devers, where are they playing in a few years?
Unless Mayer is a bust at least one of them won't be playing on the left side of the infield in 4-5 years
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
3,409
Does signing one of the big free agent SS guys to a big contract, extending X and moving him to 3rd, extending Devers and moving him to 1B and moving Dalbec to DH make sense?
That’d be $80-$90M in 3 guys.
Kiké, Renfroe and Verdugo are a value OF. Tough decisions in ‘22

Edit-- it's possible if JDM opts out, don't try and sign Schwarber, release Vazquez and go with Plawecki and ? as C. Arroyo at 2B.
With the rotation of Sale, Eovaldi, Seabold, Whitlock and Pivetta. Barnes being the only big BP cost, it's looking pretty reasonable cost wise and pretty competive.

Very rough numbers off the top of my head but that brings just this group to around $180M and they'd need another C, more BP arms and a bench.
 
Last edited:

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
13,650
Triston Casas is the future 1b. His arrival is estimated midway through the 2022 season. You don't want him blocked. Not only can he mash, he's an above-average fielder at 1b. Not a Keith Hernandez-level fielder, but above average. That will help the rest of the IF defense a LOT.

The Sox need a bridge at 1b until he arrives. Let's say it's delayed til 2023. That means they need a useful 1b for all of 2022. Can Dalbec be that guy?

In Dalbec's 131 major league games, he's put up this line:

456 pa, 416 ab, 19 2b, 26 hr, 77 rbi, .243/.307/.495/.802, 110 ops+

Over 162 games, that projects to 32 homers and 95 rbi. Batting at the end of the lineup. Yes he strikes out a TON. But that's a guy who you can live with at the back end of the order. He'll make a lot of outs, but he'll mash the ball a ton too. At virtually no cost, he's perfectly fine. HOWEVER...he needs to become a MUCH better fielder, because his lack of fielding has contributed to a lot of the errors. A good fielding 1b makes everyone else in the IF a lot better. He's not helping the other guys out right now and it's painful to watch. It's not all on him, of course, as a bad throw is a bad throw. But good fielding first basemen rescue their infield teammates, which also helps the pitching considerably.

But Dalbec has shown me that he POSSIBLY can be the bridge to Casas. And then when Casas is ready...Dalbec can be dealt, just like what the Rays do every year - trade useful players and get useful prospects in return.

You keep Devers at 3b and because his bat is so good, you live with his flaws in the field. A good 1b will help him. And you keep X at short because that's really the best spot for him. No, he's not an elite-fielding shortstop, but again, you live with it because of his awesome bat. Get a good fielding 2b to bolster the IF defense.

In the OF, you can't keep putting JD or Schwarber out there. You need Verdugo and Renfroe in the OF - those are the two best-fielding OF on the team. This OF defense should give us a renewed appreciation for the OF defense the Sox had in 2018 with Benintendi in left, JBJ in center, and Betts in right. It just doesn't get much better than that. The Sox are light years from that kind of OF defense.

And also....they need defensive improvement at C. Vazquez...just makes too many mistakes back there. It's not fun to watch.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
803
Kike has one year left, Verdugo is arb eligible and Renfroe will get a big raise so the days of them being a value OF is largely over. The Sox are in desperate need of pre arb / cheap production. Giving raises to X, a huge extension to Devers and signing a free agent SS (which would surely be $600m or so) isn’t a good idea unless they are massively increasing payroll.

They need to figure out what positions X and Devers will be playing in a few years and plan accordingly. If they sign a free agent SS to a long term deal, it means X or Devers or both are not going to be on the team long term.

I think you likely need to commit to playing Duran and Dalbec next year. I will keep beating the drum to sign Mark Canha as a stop gap at 1b/of who can bat lead off. Dump Vazquez and go with a Plawecki / Wong (or Hernandez) combo behind the dish.
 

BringBackMo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
143
I don't think it's possible for Dalbec to drop his strikeout rate much. He just doesn't make contact at anything close to an average level. For the season, his in the zone swing rate and chase rate are basically MLB average. But while the average MLB player makes contact with 84.5% of pitches in the zone, Bobby is only at 72.3%. Outside the zone is even worse. It's 62.2% for the average player and he's at 48.2%.

He has two choices for striking out less. Change his swing so he makes more contact (and hopefully doesn't lose much power). Or he becomes much better than average at pitch recognition and stops swinging at anything outside the zone. Neither strike me as something that are going to be particularly easy for him to do.
Awesome post and stats, MP. Any chance you could easily get your hands on in- and out- of-zone numbers for Duran? (Tiny sample size, of course! But would be interesting to see.)

One thing regarding Dalbec developing better-than-average pitch recognition and learning not to swing outside the zone: his minor league seasons were characterized by walk rates high enough to push his obp into the .360/.370 range despite a below-average hit too. That suggests at least a glimmer of potential for improved walk rates in the majors. I agree that’s not necessarily likely, but I do think at least some of his cratered walk rate owes less to pitch recognition than to pressing during a prolonged slump.

Still and all, Bobby Dalbec is always going to strike out a ton (always has), and is always going to be highly streaky (always has).
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
14,906
Maine
Does signing one of the big free agent SS guys to a big contract, extending X and moving him to 3rd, extending Devers and moving him to 1B and moving Dalbec to DH make sense?
That’d be $80-$90M in 3 guys.
Kiké, Renfroe and Verdugo are a value OF. Tough decisions in ‘22

Edit-- it's possible if JDM opts out, don't try and sign Schwarber, release Vazquez and go with Plawecki and ? as C. Arroyo at 2B.
With the rotation of Sale, Eovaldi, Seabold, Whitlock and Pivetta. Barnes being the only big BP cost, it's looking pretty reasonable cost wise and pretty competive.

Very rough numbers off the top of my head but that brings just this group to around $180M and they'd need another C, more BP arms and a bench.
I do not think signing a big free agent SS makes any sense at all. They don't need to be spending $30M a year on a SS just to shuffle their $20M a year SS to a new position as well as play musical chairs with 2-3 other guys. That seems like too much chaos to marginally improve the defense. I've said it before, I'll say it again, a lot of the infield defense is helped by a reliable receiver at 1B. I think Dalbec can improve his 1B defense to be passable, but they also need to bring in a LHH who can split time at 1B and maybe cover the OF on occasion as well. Mitch Moreland could be that guy, save the OF part. In which case, maybe it's Dalbec that is given time in the outfield?

If Casas is the real future, Dalbec's time at 1B is limited anyway. He has the arm for the outfield. If his range is limited, he could still be effective patrolling in front of the Monster 70-80 games a year. Of course, that is all dependent on Dalbec's bat warranting a spot in the lineup.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
3,409
I do not think signing a big free agent SS makes any sense at all. They don't need to be spending $30M a year on a SS just to shuffle their $20M a year SS to a new position as well as play musical chairs with 2-3 other guys. That seems like too much chaos to marginally improve the defense. I've said it before, I'll say it again, a lot of the infield defense is helped by a reliable receiver at 1B. I think Dalbec can improve his 1B defense to be passable, but they also need to bring in a LHH who can split time at 1B and maybe cover the OF on occasion as well. Mitch Moreland could be that guy, save the OF part. In which case, maybe it's Dalbec that is given time in the outfield?

If Casas is the real future, Dalbec's time at 1B is limited anyway. He has the arm for the outfield. If his range is limited, he could still be effective patrolling in front of the Monster 70-80 games a year. Of course, that is all dependent on Dalbec's bat warranting a spot in the lineup.
I'm leaning towards agreeing with you. Devers brain farts at 3rd are confounding though. But it does make the most sense to basically go into '22 with the same infield- Devers, X, Arroyo/Kiké, Dalbec and hopefully Schwarber sharing DH (and OF alignment with Kiké, Duran, Verdugo and Renfroe).
I do think Vazquez has to go. If Dalbec can avoid the prolonged slumps, having Plawecki and Wong as the Catchers would be preferable.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
16,501
Awesome post and stats, MP. Any chance you could easily get your hands on in- and out- of-zone numbers for Duran? (Tiny sample size, of course! But would be interesting to see.)

One thing regarding Dalbec developing better-than-average pitch recognition and learning not to swing outside the zone: his minor league seasons were characterized by walk rates high enough to push his obp into the .360/.370 range despite a below-average hit too. That suggests at least a glimmer of potential for improved walk rates in the majors. I agree that’s not necessarily likely, but I do think at least some of his cratered walk rate owes less to pitch recognition than to pressing during a prolonged slump.

Still and all, Bobby Dalbec is always going to strike out a ton (always has), and is always going to be highly streaky (always has).
I predicted once Dalbec was promoted to the Majors, his BB total would plummet. He only drew walks in the minors because he's patient and the pitchers lacked control. Now those pitches he was taking for balls are strikes.
 

BringBackMo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
143
I predicted once Dalbec was promoted to the Majors, his BB total would plummet. He only drew walks in the minors because he's patient and the pitchers lacked control. Now those pitches he was taking for balls are strikes.
Fair point. It's important to keep in mind, though, that Dalbec isn't a finished product. It's not unusual for 26-year-old hitters to improve at the margins when it comes to skills such as pitch recognition or a better understanding of their own hot/cold areas within the strike zone. To be clear, though, I am in no way arguing that his walk rate will look like what he produced in the minors, only that improvement is possible and that who he is today in that regard doesn't have to be precisely who he will be tomorrow.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
3,409
Fair point. It's important to keep in mind, though, that Dalbec isn't a finished product. It's not unusual for 26-year-old hitters to improve at the margins when it comes to skills such as pitch recognition or a better understanding of their own hot/cold areas within the strike zone. To be clear, though, I am in no way arguing that his walk rate will look like what he produced in the minors, only that improvement is possible and that who he is today in that regard doesn't have to be precisely who he will be tomorrow.
I don't think for a second that Dalbec could end up like Judge... but didn't he develop pretty late and was considered a marginal talent? I realize that he was younger than Dalbec... still 25 years old when he turned into a monster but I don't recall his name ever being mentioned as a great prospect and his first season (non-rookie, in 96 plate appearances) he looked overmatched.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
5,161
Boston, MA
Awesome post and stats, MP. Any chance you could easily get your hands on in- and out- of-zone numbers for Duran? (Tiny sample size, of course! But would be interesting to see.)
You can find it all on Fangraphs player page under Plate Discipline. There's a button there to bring up the league average line right below it.

Duran makes average contact in the zone, but is below average outside the zone and chases too much. He could actually improve his strikeout rate a bunch by making strides in pitch recognition.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
57,292
I don't think for a second that Dalbec could end up like Judge... but didn't he develop pretty late and was considered a marginal talent? I realize that he was younger than Dalbec... still 25 years old when he turned into a monster but I don't recall his name ever being mentioned as a great prospect and his first season (non-rookie, in 96 plate appearances) he looked overmatched.
Judge developed a bit late because he was already a bit old when drafted, he is gigantic and he needed some time to adapt to each level, he was a first round pick and a top 100 guy for a while, here’s a 2016 list with him at #22 overall.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016/

Also he has always been a solid to great defender.
 
Last edited:

GB5

lurker
Aug 26, 2013
61
Dalbec's run has been primarily against right handed hitters over the past few weeks, which if it more than small sample noise, is significant. They are in a tough spot for next year. Devers makes sense at third because of the bat, Xander, bat at SS, and Dalbec low salary power impact at 1st and also impact at bottom of lineup. They all make certain sense in the lineup. They make no sense in the field together. You just cant survive with this much inconsistency in 3 of the four infield spots. I should add Vaz in, but I dont even like typing his name. His throw to second which was a horrible decision, and a worse throw, to me, is everything that is wrong with him. He likes to be seen. He wants highlight plays, low percentage pick off throws, dangerous highlight steals of bases, its all a look at me attitude. He carries himself like a HOF. Sorry didnt mean to go off on this tangent.

Anyways the pitchers are going to soon revolt if they have to deal with this porous defense. May not be until next year, but it is devastating as a contending team to have a hole that glaring.
 

Apisith

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2007
2,696
Bangkok
What a pleasant surprise he’s been over the last month or so. We really need a lot of cost-controlled players to compete so I’m guessing there’s no chance he gets traded this off-season. If he can learn to play 2B and improve his defense at 1B then he’ll be a very good depth player and get a lot of at-bats.
 
If by some miracle this offense could all click at the same time it would be quite the juggernaut:

Kike (2nd half) .398 wOBA
Schwarber (2nd half) .450 wOBA
X (1st half) .394 wOBA
JDM (April) .483 wOBA (or .388 for 1st half)
Devers (July) .424 wOBA (or .380 for 1st half)
Renfroe (August) .426 wOBA (or ~.385 for May+June)
Verdugo (August) .385 wOBA (or ~.346 for April+May)
Dalbec (August) .491 wOBA (or .406 for 2nd half)
Vazquez (2nd half) .298 wOBA

That's an absolutely monstrous lineup with exactly one hole. Average wOBA of .416 1-9.

2018 team wOBA was .340
2013 team wOBA was .347
2007 team wOBA was .352
2004 team wOBA was .358
2003 team wOBA was .364

Of course no team is going to get peak production from everyone for a full season, but even if it happened only for a week or two it would be an epic spectacle.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
18,654
Rogers Park
Those two singles brought his wRC+ above 100. Hell of a turnaround.
Career number now a respectable 109.

The broadcast said he has been taking grounders at short in case they need him there.
Said to have a good arm at 3B in the minors... He'd be tall to play SS, but it's not crazy, given that our top three options at SS are all on the COVID IL.
 

cantor44

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2020
701
Chicago, IL
If by some miracle this offense could all click at the same time it would be quite the juggernaut:

Kike (2nd half) .398 wOBA
Schwarber (2nd half) .450 wOBA
X (1st half) .394 wOBA
JDM (April) .483 wOBA (or .388 for 1st half)
Devers (July) .424 wOBA (or .380 for 1st half)
Renfroe (August) .426 wOBA (or ~.385 for May+June)
Verdugo (August) .385 wOBA (or ~.346 for April+May)
Dalbec (August) .491 wOBA (or .406 for 2nd half)
Vazquez (2nd half) .298 wOBA

That's an absolutely monstrous lineup with exactly one hole. Average wOBA of .416 1-9.

2018 team wOBA was .340
2013 team wOBA was .347
2007 team wOBA was .352
2004 team wOBA was .358
2003 team wOBA was .364

Of course no team is going to get peak production from everyone for a full season, but even if it happened only for a week or two it would be an epic spectacle.
Even considering the season wOBA's (rather than peak wOBA) of all those guys, the line up is still pretty powerful. The fact is, they haven't been at full strength all season. If they can somehow hang on during these COVID absences, they will find themselves in the second half of the month, heading into October, with the A team finally on the field, and a revived rotation that might offer dividends to the bullpen by going longer into games.

And suddenly, the achilles heal might be the D and only the D. I know that's a big heal.

But the team could enter October with both strong hitting and strong pitching ...

That is, if they survive the current gauntlet.

EDIT: At .330 Boston has the third best team wOBA in the majors, behind only Houston and Toronto. And that's been produced by a team that has never seen it's nine best hitters in the line up at once (I'm counting Schwarber) ...At full strength, they can hit. With Sale back and Erod his old self ... they can pitch. They just gotta get everyone on the field.
 
Last edited:
JD provides a potential solution to the Casas problem. It's likely that the first full season in which Casas will be plausibly ready will be 2023, the year after JD's contract expires. If Dalbec struggles through 2022 then he can be traded or sent down, but if he's hitting well enough then he could easily slide to DH to replace JD while Casas gets a real chance at 1B. If Casas doesn't pan out, then Dalbec can move back to 1B and a DH should be pretty easy to acquire by trade if the team is competing. If Casas does well then the team has a cheap DH ready to go.