Three True Outcomes, The Bobby Dalbec Thread.

IpswichSox

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My issue with Bobby now is that they're not even starting him every day. If he's not playing regularly to try to work out his issues, he's clearly of limited utility as a pinch hitter. So why is he here? He needs three or four at bats every single day, and that should be at AAA. We clearly don't have a viable, semi-permanent option to replace him. The guys we do have are great in short bursts but like Brock Holt get exposed over longer durations. We need a Steve Pearce-type -- serviceable defense and offense -- who won't cost any prospects we care about.
 

shaggydog2000

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My issue with Bobby now is that they're not even starting him every day. If he's not playing regularly to try to work out his issues, he's clearly of limited utility as a pinch hitter. So why is he here? He needs three or four at bats every single day, and that should be at AAA. We clearly don't have a viable, semi-permanent option to replace him. The guys we do have are great in short bursts but like Brock Holt get exposed over longer durations. We need a Steve Pearce-type -- serviceable defense and offense -- who won't cost any prospects we care about.
The path to replacing him is definitely from outside the franchise rather than within. And that means there has to be someone interested in selling. They may just be waiting on that.
 

cantor44

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The reason to send Dalbec down is because we're actually in the playoff hunt. Right now Dalbec, Santana, Gonzalez, and to some extent Hernandez are all dead weight with the bats. Someone needs to go, and if it means swapping Hernandez for Wilson, while sending Dalbec down and playing Santana at 1B, so be it. We keep all the binkies in that scenario, even the crappy ones.

We just need to upgrade a couple of bats from abysmal to average-ish.

For position players on the 40 we have:
Noncontendors:
Connor Wong, Ronaldo Hernandez: catchers.
Jeisson Rosario, CF. AA. Not hitting well this year.
Hudson Potts (Injured)

Possible help:
Franchy Cordero, LF. Crushing righties, minimal but crappy exposure to lefties.
Marcus Wilson, CF. Knocking the snot out of the ball in AAA with no platoon split. And can play CF.
Jonathan Arauz, 2B, SS, 3B. Noodle bat with flashes.
Michael Chavis. 1B. Sometimes slighty worse than average is better than nothing.

If you dump/trade Gonzalez or Santana, OF Johan Mieses currently has a hot bat.
Yes, this is precisely the reason I brought up Duran. They need to upgrade offense somewhere. I
I think releasing him to the Olympic team (which he is now back from) was one sign that they're not in a hurry to get him to the majors. There may be aspects of his game, like his defense, that he still needs to work on. It's hard for us to know as fans what their criteria for his readiness is. We look at what we have available to us, which is mostly batting numbers.

Dalbec is still on the roster because he's the only "natural" 1B they have. And yes, he is converted from another position so that is a weird thing to call him, but it's been his full time position in the majors. There are others with the flexibility to play there (Santana, Gonzalez), but they're not good full time fits. And more importantly, they're also not hitting any better than he is. So if you call up Duran and send down Dalbec, you're not solving the issue of who will play 1B. Renfroe is the regular RF and has started to hit decently. Verdugo has recently settled into LF and there is no way Duran would start over him. They must like Hernandez' defense because he's become the regular CF. If they think the delta in defensive value between Duran and Hernandez is big enough, he really wouldn't have a starting job to step into, and why call him up unless he gets regular playing time at this point in his development?
Yes, I understand about the imperfect fits at first base. Ideally the Sox will trade for a first baseman (a CJ Cron or Aguilar type) AND promote Duran, to lengthen their line up. The need to lengthen the line up is the point of bringing up Duran in the context of the struggling Dalbec; despite imperfect first base fits, how much longer can the Sox keep so many black holes in the line up, Dalbec perhaps the worst among them? Especially since they ARE contending.

Since the organization has positional flexibility on the major league roster and their best AAA prospect happens to be an outfielder, then maybe the short term solution is to bring up Duran and let Dalbec get some more work at AAA. OR - bring up Duran and drop Santana or someone ....Could platoon Dalbec at first base, and have an outfield of Duran/Verdugo/Renfroe as pretty much every day players ...

Meanwhile, I still don't get Cora's comment that it could be two years before Duran is playing on the major league team ... surely he can't be serious.
 

CarolinaBeerGuy

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Yesterday in the Globe, Alex Speier quoted Cora as saying something to the effect that "Duran would contribute to the major league team not in one or two months but in one or two years." I found this baffling. Is this a Belichick bluff? Or is that how the Sox view Duran? I say this in the context of Dalbec, because, what with the positional versatility of the many utility players on the current roster, wouldn't Duran contribute more right now to the team than Dalbec?

The Organization's position is that Duran needs further development, which I trust is true. But so does Dalbec, and the team has been quite content to allow him to do his developing at the major league level. Sometimes organizational biases baffle me ... certain guys kept down for too long, others brought up too soon. I understand that Duran only has a handful of AAA games under his belt. And if we had the 2018 outfield playing, yes, you keep him down on the farm. But under present circumstances, I don't quite get the "one or two years" Cora comment.
Meanwhile, I still don't get Cora's comment that it could be two years before Duran is playing on the major league team ... surely he can't be serious.
Since you're sticking with this line of reasoning, I want to point out that the actual quote is quite different than what you're implying. Here is what Cora actually said:

“Obviously the conversations will always be there,” said manager Alex Cora. “This is a guy that’s going to impact this team in the future — and the future doesn’t mean tomorrow or a month, maybe next year or two years.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/06/07/sports/jarren-durans-major-league-call-up-matter-when-not-if-sox-prospects-stock-soars/
 
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Danny_Darwin

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Wilson has 17bb/43ks and 8 HRs in 122 PA in the minors with a BAbip of .423. I like him but I think he'd be as bad or worse than Dalbec.
Adding to this, I’ll point out again - since I don’t think it’s too widely known - that they are using the old (juiced) ball in AAA, so adjust your expectations for any current AAA player accordingly.
 

cantor44

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Since you're sticking with this line of reasoning, I want to point out that the actual quote is quite different than what you're implying. Here is what Cora actually said:



https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/06/07/sports/jarren-durans-major-league-call-up-matter-when-not-if-sox-prospects-stock-soars/
Do you interpret that quote as Cora saying Duran won't be an impactful major league player for one or two years, or that he won't be in the majors at all for one or two years? (Honest question) ...I assume you're suggesting the former, which I hadn't thought of when I read it ...the former still seems highly conservative, the latter ridiculous ...
 

Rovin Romine

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Wilson has 17bb/43ks and 8 HRs in 122 PA in the minors with a BAbip of .423. I like him but I think he'd be as bad or worse than Dalbec.
So given tonight's performance in CF by E.Hernandez, with his offsetting .683 OPS, I'm willing to roll the dice with Wilson for a spell, or Durran. Even if we have to say goodbye to Dalbec for a week or two.
 

Cesar Crespo

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So given tonight's performance in CF by E.Hernandez, with his offsetting .683 OPS, I'm willing to roll the dice with Wilson for a spell, or Durran. Even if we have to say goodbye to Dalbec for a week or two.
Duran hit his 8th HR tonight. That's now 8 in 85 at bats. He had 8 career homeruns in 802 AB in the minors prior to this year. I'd like to see him finish June in AAA but I think he's the most likely solution.
 

cantor44

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Duran hit his 8th HR tonight. That's now 8 in 85 at bats. He had 8 career homeruns in 802 AB in the minors prior to this year. I'd like to see him finish June in AAA but I think he's the most likely solution.
I feel the same way. Of course right on cue Dalbec gets two hits (one likely a HR in any other park), and makes solid contact all game ....
 

CarolinaBeerGuy

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Do you interpret that quote as Cora saying Duran won't be an impactful major league player for one or two years, or that he won't be in the majors at all for one or two years? (Honest question) ...I assume you're suggesting the former, which I hadn't thought of when I read it ...the former still seems highly conservative, the latter ridiculous ...
I’m reading it as Cora saying he’s going to contribute in the future, but he’s not going to give a specific timeline for that.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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How exactly is Duran going to be the savior at 1B this year? I'm just generally confused about that POV. Also..... is anyone concerned about his power numbers being inflated with the offensive power surge in Wistah across the board?
Beside that though... I was pretty bullish on Dalbec "figuring it out" and he started showing some signs of coming around a few weeks back. Enough that I had him projected to end the season around an .800 OPS. My optimism has started to seriously fray... even after last night. As Rovin Romine put it a few posts up... Baker just wasn't managing that situation well. Bring in a righty and Dalbec is likely sitting down and the Sox are only clinging to a 2 run lead. Still would have held on as things turned out but who knows.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Cora’s team is in the middle of a great season and he is the type not to throw any players under the bus, even implicitly, by suggesting some prospect is going to come take their job sooner rather than later.

His comments also help manage the expectations for Duran. Everybody knows he will be up at some point. Classic managerspeak.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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How exactly is Duran going to be the savior at 1B this year? I'm just generally confused about that POV. Also..... is anyone concerned about his power numbers being inflated with the offensive power surge in Wistah across the board?
Beside that though... I was pretty bullish on Dalbec "figuring it out" and he started showing some signs of coming around a few weeks back. Enough that I had him projected to end the season around an .800 OPS. My optimism has started to seriously fray... even after last night. As Rovin Romine put it a few posts up... Baker just wasn't managing that situation well. Bring in a righty and Dalbec is likely sitting down and the Sox are only clinging to a 2 run lead. Still would have held on as things turned out but who knows.
He's not. The only thing I can figure is people want Duran in center full time so that frees up Santana or Gonzalez to play 1B, and it reduces the offensive black holes by one (replacing Dalbec's bat with Duran's). That succeeding assumes that Duran immediately starts hitting in the big leagues like he's been hitting in Worcester and continues to do so for the rest of the season, which given the typical trajectory of most rookies, is unrealistic at best.

The Sox are a game out of first, behind the team with the best record in the league, on June 11. This is despite having to carry Dalbec's (and Hernandez/Gonzalez/Santana) bat at the bottom of the lineup. Seems to me that they're content for now to keep doing what they're doing and patiently hope he comes around. We're not going to see some dramatic move that throws one rookie away while throwing another to the wolves in the hopes of marginally improving the lineup. I think we're more likely to see a Pearce-style move in the next few weeks than we are to see Duran called up. Otherwise, the status quo continues.
 

BringBackMo

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I think that when Bloom was constructing this roster he knew that a season like this was well within the range of potential outcomes (along with a bunch of others that were less upbeat). The fact that this group happens to be putting together a winning season rather than a .500 one is, in my view, unlikely to dramatically alter the front office’s development strategy or perceived time line. I believe that Bloom’s plan is to compete in 2022 or (more likely) 2023, and that he’s going to line up his player development and free agent moves to fit that timeline regardless of what’s unfolding during this delightful season.
 

BringBackMo

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He's not. The only thing I can figure is people want Duran in center full time so that frees up Santana or Gonzalez to play 1B, and it reduces the offensive black holes by one (replacing Dalbec's bat with Duran's). That succeeding assumes that Duran immediately starts hitting in the big leagues like he's been hitting in Worcester and continues to do so for the rest of the season, which given the typical trajectory of most rookies, is unrealistic at best.

The Sox are a game out of first, behind the team with the best record in the league, on June 11. This is despite having to carry Dalbec's (and Hernandez/Gonzalez/Santana) bat at the bottom of the lineup. Seems to me that they're content for now to keep doing what they're doing and patiently hope he comes around. We're not going to see some dramatic move that throws one rookie away while throwing another to the wolves in the hopes of marginally improving the lineup. I think we're more likely to see a Pearce-style move in the next few weeks than we are to see Duran called up. Otherwise, the status quo continues.
Very well said. I think this is exactly right.
 

joe dokes

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He's not. The only thing I can figure is people want Duran in center full time so that frees up Santana or Gonzalez to play 1B, and it reduces the offensive black holes by one (replacing Dalbec's bat with Duran's). That succeeding assumes that Duran immediately starts hitting in the big leagues like he's been hitting in Worcester and continues to do so for the rest of the season, which given the typical trajectory of most rookies, is unrealistic at best.

The Sox are a game out of first, behind the team with the best record in the league, on June 11. This is despite having to carry Dalbec's (and Hernandez/Gonzalez/Santana) bat at the bottom of the lineup. Seems to me that they're content for now to keep doing what they're doing and patiently hope he comes around. We're not going to see some dramatic move that throws one rookie away while throwing another to the wolves in the hopes of marginally improving the lineup. I think we're more likely to see a Pearce-style move in the next few weeks than we are to see Duran called up. Otherwise, the status quo continues.
Has anyone seen any reports about Duran's defense? IIRC, it was generally regarded as abysmal in the spring.
 

JimD

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Duran hit his 8th HR tonight. That's now 8 in 85 at bats. He had 8 career homeruns in 802 AB in the minors prior to this year. I'd like to see him finish June in AAA but I think he's the most likely solution.
I was at the game - the HR was kind of a cheapie off the RF foul pole, but he hit everything hard last night.

FWIW, Jonathan Araúz hit an absolute bomb that almost cleared the right-field party deck.
 

Cesar Crespo

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How exactly is Duran going to be the savior at 1B this year? I'm just generally confused about that POV. Also..... is anyone concerned about his power numbers being inflated with the offensive power surge in Wistah across the board?
Beside that though... I was pretty bullish on Dalbec "figuring it out" and he started showing some signs of coming around a few weeks back. Enough that I had him projected to end the season around an .800 OPS. My optimism has started to seriously fray... even after last night. As Rovin Romine put it a few posts up... Baker just wasn't managing that situation well. Bring in a righty and Dalbec is likely sitting down and the Sox are only clinging to a 2 run lead. Still would have held on as things turned out but who knows.

I'm concerned about Duran's power in general. With that said, it's clear as day that he's not the noodle bat he was in 2019. He has definitely added some power to his game. He's not going to be hitting a HR every 10 at bats though. I'm also concerned about his ability to hit for average. A lot of his earlier success was him out running everything. He's hitting .259/.364/.600 atm with a .269 BAbip so not an issue currently.

His defense is still pretty suspect too. Still, Bobby Dalbec is terrible.
 

Rovin Romine

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He's not. The only thing I can figure is people want Duran in center full time so that frees up Santana or Gonzalez to play 1B, and it reduces the offensive black holes by one (replacing Dalbec's bat with Duran's). That succeeding assumes that Duran immediately starts hitting in the big leagues like he's been hitting in Worcester and continues to do so for the rest of the season, which given the typical trajectory of most rookies, is unrealistic at best.

The Sox are a game out of first, behind the team with the best record in the league, on June 11. This is despite having to carry Dalbec's (and Hernandez/Gonzalez/Santana) bat at the bottom of the lineup. Seems to me that they're content for now to keep doing what they're doing and patiently hope he comes around. We're not going to see some dramatic move that throws one rookie away while throwing another to the wolves in the hopes of marginally improving the lineup. I think we're more likely to see a Pearce-style move in the next few weeks than we are to see Duran called up. Otherwise, the status quo continues.
Yep. I'd rather a trade for a competent first baseman. I mean, we've just seen a solid 1-9 opposing lineup. But striving for that in our own club would be. . .greedy? Off-brand? Honestly I just don't get the "oh, it's good enough" argument some (not you) float.

Dalbec, like Franchy, has options. So as long as Bloom/Cora want to cling to their hitless utility binkies, the Sox may as well see if any of the minor league options can provide ML value as a bat. Fortunately, our two possible-call-up OF (already on the 40 man) can handle center and would displace the defensively erratic Hernandez, who, being the best of the utility bats, can aways be plugged in somewhere as needed. But this isn't happening.

Dalbec's main problem is production against righties. He's always had a platoon split and a horrible K rate against RHP. I don't know what the plan for him to get better is (or even if there is one), but it's kind of hard to argue:
1) Dalbec needs to face ML righty pitching to develop.
2) Other prospects will be derailed if same.
3) Sending Dalbec down to face AAA pitching will derail his development.
4) Other prospects development will not be derailed by facing AAA pitching.

One reason to keep him up is that he could be useful for a stretch of LH SP on division rivals or the like. But I'd have to see some schedule evidence of that.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dalbec's main problem is production against righties. He's always had a platoon split and a horrible K rate against RHP. I don't know what the plan for him to get better is (or even if there is one), but it's kind of hard to argue:
Every single year in the minors outside of 2019 he had a better split vs RHP. Don't let facts get in the way though. He's a had a terrible K rate vs all pitchers always.
 

Cesar Crespo

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A little more on Duran re Worchester and power.

At Home: .286/.375/.735, 6 HRs, 56 PA
Away: .222/.349/.417, 2 HRs, 43 PA.

Obviously hitting for way more power at home but he has close to a .200 ISO on the road which is still pretty solid and would easily be a career high.

Vs RHP: .234/.347/.563 in 75 PA, 10bb/18k, 6 HR.
Vs LHP: .333/.417/.714 in 24 PA, 2bb/7k, 2 HR.

SSS, but it looks like he's hitting for power from both sides as well.

Another thing I found interesting: He somehow only has 7 PA against pitchers younger than he is... which lead me to find out the average age of a AAA player is older than the average age of a MLB player. The average AAA player is 28.2 years old. The average MLB player is 27.2 years old. I'm surprised I didn't know this since I'm kind of a minor league junkie. I'm guessing the average age of A and AA players goes up roughly a year this season too, due to covid.

He's hitting .000/.143/.000 in those 7 PA, 1bb/3k.
vs older: .278/.380/.646 in 92 PA, 11bb/22k.

His career walk rate going into the season was 7.0%. This season it is currently at 12.1%. Sometimes an increase in power leads to more walks, so while I doubt he maintains that rate, I'm guessing it will be considerably higher than his career rate. He's also striking out more at 25.3%. His career rate was exactly 20.0% going into the season.

Anyway, back to Bobby Dalbec. Including last night, over his last 13 games: .116/.156/.209, 2bb/21k in 45 PA. 5 hits. He has far too many 0/10+ stretches this season, and a few 0/20+ stretches. You also aren't going to be very successful striking out 46.7% of the time. Also, last year he had 10bb in 92 PA. This year he has 10 bb in 178 PA, essentially cutting his walk rate in half in the early going. On the bright side, his K % for the season is 36.5%, which is better than the 42.4% last year.

For his career, Bobby is now at .215/.281/.441 in 270 PA with 14 HR, 20bb/102k on a .302 BAbip. 38.5% K rate, 7.4% BB rate. Looking at his minor league track record, that seems about right in line with what one would expect from Bobby Dalbec. Most of his real success in the minors was due to being older than his competition. Less so in Portland but 24 isn't a spring chicken for AA either. Stating the obvious, but he'll need to either walk more or hit closer to .245-.250 to have any real value. Hitting .215 with a below average BB% rate isn't going to get it done at 1b. I guess the other solution would be to have an ISO close to .300.
 

cantor44

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He's not. The only thing I can figure is people want Duran in center full time so that frees up Santana or Gonzalez to play 1B, and it reduces the offensive black holes by one (replacing Dalbec's bat with Duran's). That succeeding assumes that Duran immediately starts hitting in the big leagues like he's been hitting in Worcester and continues to do so for the rest of the season, which given the typical trajectory of most rookies, is unrealistic at best.

The Sox are a game out of first, behind the team with the best record in the league, on June 11. This is despite having to carry Dalbec's (and Hernandez/Gonzalez/Santana) bat at the bottom of the lineup. Seems to me that they're content for now to keep doing what they're doing and patiently hope he comes around. We're not going to see some dramatic move that throws one rookie away while throwing another to the wolves in the hopes of marginally improving the lineup. I think we're more likely to see a Pearce-style move in the next few weeks than we are to see Duran called up. Otherwise, the status quo continues.
Unless Duran's value is being inflated as the flavor-of-the-month (including by Baseball America), I think we will in fact see him called up, much like Ellsbury was in 2007. Might not be until after the Olympics, but he'll be promoted. Hopefully Duran will have a similar impact as Ellsbury did.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Unless Duran's value is being inflated as the flavor-of-the-month (including by Baseball America), I think we will in fact see him called up, much like Ellsbury was in 2007. Might not be until after the Olympics, but he'll be promoted. Hopefully Duran will have a similar impact as Ellsbury did.
I was only speaking of the next few weeks (say, pre-trade deadline). Duran is not going to be a savior. Certainly not in the context of improving/upgrading Dalbec's spot in the lineup. I'm on record saying that barring an injury (like what prompted Ellsbury's first call up), we're unlikely to see Duran until Worcester's season winds down. I don't believe it will happen any sooner than that.
 

reggiecleveland

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So given tonight's performance in CF by E.Hernandez, with his offsetting .683 OPS, I'm willing to roll the dice with Wilson for a spell, or Durran. Even if we have to say goodbye to Dalbec for a week or two.
I have to keep comparing stats to other years since this is such a pitcher's year. Comparatively Kike (ops+ 89) is hitting better than Coco did in 2007, when his hitting was deemed acceptable for a CF. The fact Coco was elite (Did you see that catch by Coco?!) .

To put something else in perspective X ops+ is over 150 which is what Manny did for his career including 2004. So basically we have a hitter like Manny at SS right now.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I was only speaking of the next few weeks (say, pre-trade deadline). Duran is not going to be a savior. Certainly not in the context of improving/upgrading Dalbec's spot in the lineup. I'm on record saying that barring an injury (like what prompted Ellsbury's first call up), we're unlikely to see Duran until Worcester's season winds down. I don't believe it will happen any sooner than that.
I don't think anyone is expecting Duran to be a savior. I think he's the most likely option on the farm to help the team and might be better than Bobby Dalbec. He also provides speed and could possibly fill the lead off spot. They don't have much to lose by finding out, either. Maybe some trade value if he's truly horrible.

I also don't think anyone expects him to come in hitting out of the gate. There will be an adjustment period and he will struggle some. There could be some value in getting it out of the way now though.

If they can get Starling Marte for basically a bag of baseballs, then yes they should do that. Barring any outside help, the best option in the system is Jarren Duran. Thinking that he might be able to hit better than .192/.242/.365 isn't all that outlandish. It's not like the bar is that high.

There's a lot of room between serviceable and savior.
 

Rovin Romine

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I have to keep comparing stats to other years since this is such a pitcher's year. Comparatively Kike (ops+ 89) is hitting better than Coco did in 2007, when his hitting was deemed acceptable for a CF. The fact Coco was elite (Did you see that catch by Coco?!) .

To put something else in perspective X ops+ is over 150 which is what Manny did for his career including 2004. So basically we have a hitter like Manny at SS right now.
The big 3 of JD, Devers, and Xander have been amazing, with Verdugo as the Jr. Mustkateer.

E.Hernandez at 89 isn't the worst of the utility guys. The problem is Vaz is at 81, Dalbec 64, Marwin 61, Santana at 39, and Franchy (was) at 38. (SSS but the much maligned Chavis is at 103, better than Renfroe's 100.)

I'll grant you that great teams can carry a regularish scrub/shrub who otherwise contributes:
2018 - Leon 37.
2007 - Coco 83, Lugo 65.

But we're seeing some cracks in the starting rotation and Houck and Sale have both only started recovery/ramping up throwing.

Right now, we're getting lineups with 3, sometimes 4 deadweights in there. You can only bitch so much about Vaz and Plawecki - they catch and offense is gravy. But anyone else on that short list should be fungible. Run differentials win games - if you can't upgrade the starters, extend the lineup, etc. Or at least try.
 

Cesar Crespo

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You're correct - I flipped the L/R OPS numbers. Probably because it made him seem not entirely broken.
To be fair, often times R/L splits don't show up until AAA or even the majors. The signs he was "broken" were always there though. He was a college junior striking out over 37% of the time in low A as a 22 year old. Plus he was a guy who walked a lot due to inferior pitching rather than being particularly good at it.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The big 3 of JD, Devers, and Xander have been amazing, with Verdugo as the Jr. Mustkateer.

E.Hernandez at 89 isn't the worst of the utility guys. The problem is Vaz is at 81, Dalbec 64, Marwin 61, Santana at 39, and Franchy (was) at 38. (SSS but the much maligned Chavis is at 103, better than Renfroe's 100.)

I'll grant you that great teams can carry a regularish scrub/shrub who otherwise contributes:
2018 - Leon 37.
2007 - Coco 83, Lugo 65.

But we're seeing some cracks in the starting rotation and Houck and Sale have both only started recovery/ramping up throwing.

Right now, we're getting lineups with 3, sometimes 4 deadweights in there. You can only bitch so much about Vaz and Plawecki - they catch and offense is gravy. But anyone else on that short list should be fungible. Run differentials win games - if you can't upgrade the starters, extend the lineup, etc. Or at least try.

If Arroyo can luck himself into a 110-120 OPS+ season, it'll help immensely. It's crazy how much he would extend the lineup.
 

shaggydog2000

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The big 3 of JD, Devers, and Xander have been amazing, with Verdugo as the Jr. Mustkateer.

E.Hernandez at 89 isn't the worst of the utility guys. The problem is Vaz is at 81, Dalbec 64, Marwin 61, Santana at 39, and Franchy (was) at 38. (SSS but the much maligned Chavis is at 103, better than Renfroe's 100.)

I'll grant you that great teams can carry a regularish scrub/shrub who otherwise contributes:
2018 - Leon 37.
2007 - Coco 83, Lugo 65.

But we're seeing some cracks in the starting rotation and Houck and Sale have both only started recovery/ramping up throwing.

Right now, we're getting lineups with 3, sometimes 4 deadweights in there. You can only bitch so much about Vaz and Plawecki - they catch and offense is gravy. But anyone else on that short list should be fungible. Run differentials win games - if you can't upgrade the starters, extend the lineup, etc. Or at least try.
But getting rid of Dalbec means more Marwin and Santana, not less. And that isn't improving things at all. Unless you find another 1B, which has to come form outside the franchise at this point. If you bring up Duran or whatever hot-hitting AAA OF you want to argue for, that just means a marginal upgrade on Hernandez. Getting your feet wet Duran is probably not going to be any better than him. The power improvement seems to be sticking, but there are other offensive markers he still needs to improve on.
 

Cesar Crespo

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But getting rid of Dalbec means more Marwin and Santana, not less. And that isn't improving things at all. Unless you find another 1B, which has to come form outside the franchise at this point. If you bring up Duran or whatever hot-hitting AAA OF you want to argue for, that just means a marginal upgrade on Hernandez. Getting your feet wet Duran is probably not going to be any better than him. The power improvement seems to be sticking, but there are other offensive markers he still needs to improve on.
Duran replacing Enrique means Enrique replacing Marwin. Duran doesn't necessarily have to replace Dalbec on the roster either depending on what the team thinks of Marwin and Santana. If them getting more PA over Dalbec is a bad thing, maybe they shouldn't be here either.
 

shaggydog2000

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Duran replacing Enrique means Enrique replacing Marwin. Duran doesn't necessarily have to replace Dalbec on the roster either depending on what the team thinks of Marwin and Santana. If them getting more PA over Dalbec is a bad thing, maybe they shouldn't be here either.
If you're not trading for a 1B, I think the most likely guy to be moved off the roster would be Santana, he just doesn't have that much of a track record as a good player, and has been so bad in admittedly limited action this year.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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If Arroyo can luck himself into a 110-120 OPS+ season, it'll help immensely. It's crazy how much he would extend the lineup.
If both Arroyo and Renfroe can sustain their current OPS (while IMO providing what appears to be pretty damn good defense) it really does turn the entire lineup into a plus.
The big disappointment for me so far has been Vazquez after that early hot start he's been pretty horrible.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If both Arroyo and Renfroe can sustain their current OPS (while IMO providing what appears to be pretty damn good defense) it really does turn the entire lineup into a plus.
The big disappointment for me so far has been Vazquez after that early hot start he's been pretty horrible.
I think Renfroe is far more likely to sustain or even improve his production. Arroyo has been pretty lucky to date.
 

joe dokes

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I don't think anyone is expecting Duran to be a savior. I think he's the most likely option on the farm to help the team and might be better than Bobby Dalbec. He also provides speed and could possibly fill the lead off spot. They don't have much to lose by finding out, either. Maybe some trade value if he's truly horrible.

I also don't think anyone expects him to come in hitting out of the gate. There will be an adjustment period and he will struggle some. There could be some value in getting it out of the way now though.
I think this is where Bloom's obligation to both the present and the future come in. I think we can safely assume that he'd be in the majors if they didn't think he needed time in AAA. So as long as the team continues to succeed, I think Bloom puts off potentially shorting the AAA time he thinks is needed.
 

Danny_Darwin

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Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought they were keeping Duran in Worcester because he’s still working on defense in CF? I know that’s sometimes code for “we don’t want to start his service-time clock yet,” but I thought it was legit in this case.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought they were keeping Duran in Worcester because he’s still working on defense in CF? I know that’s sometimes code for “we don’t want to start his service-time clock yet,” but I thought it was legit in this case.
I think it's legit. Defense is still a question with him, and I think they want to see more consistency at the plate too.

At this point in the season, if his service time clock is a determining factor, we won't see him at all this year. He's been down more than long enough to get them the "extra" season of control. The next stage of extending their period of control would be waiting until a couple weeks into next season.

They're simply not in a rush to get him up. At least not in the rush that some here want them to be.
 

Max Power

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Are they really concerned with service time for him? He's 4 months younger than Verdugo and almost 2 months older than Devers. Control for 5 or 6 years wouldn't seem to be a big deal when you're talking about a middling prospect's age 31 season.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought they were keeping Duran in Worcester because he’s still working on defense in CF? I know that’s sometimes code for “we don’t want to start his service-time clock yet,” but I thought it was legit in this case.
I saw him play a few times at Portland in 2019. That was awhile ago, but back then he was not very good and got by on speed. He also struggled to hit the ball out of the infield so things change.
Are they really concerned with service time for him? He's 4 months younger than Verdugo and almost 2 months older than Devers. Control for 5 or 6 years wouldn't seem to be a big deal when you're talking about a middling prospect's age 31 season.
I doubt it. If he's still mashing come July 1st, I think they'll seriously consider it.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Are they really concerned with service time for him? He's 4 months younger than Verdugo and almost 2 months older than Devers. Control for 5 or 6 years wouldn't seem to be a big deal when you're talking about a middling prospect's age 31 season.
MIDDLING PROSPECT?!?! I just read that he's the next Mike Trout!!!
 

YTF

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I think it's legit. Defense is still a question with him, and I think they want to see more consistency at the plate too.

At this point in the season, if his service time clock is a determining factor, we won't see him at all this year. He's been down more than long enough to get them the "extra" season of control. The next stage of extending their period of control would be waiting until a couple weeks into next season.

They're simply not in a rush to get him up. At least not in the rush that some here want them to be.
If defense truly is an issue then he needs to stay where he is. Yes the Sox need to extend that batting order, but we don't know how much Duran will help improve that situation and if his defense isn't much of an upgrade there is no sense in rushing him.
 

BringBackMo

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Jul 15, 2005
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I’ll say it again, Chaim Bloom is not going to dramatically deviate from his player development strategy just because the bridge-year roster he assembled is winning. If Duran comes up it will be because the front office thinks he’s ready, not because the big league club is desperate for a bat. If a decision is made to invest resources in this club this year, it will likely be in the form of a trade for a bat that costs only second-tier prospects and cash. This is not the year that Chaim and company think the Sox are legitimate championship contenders.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I’ll say it again, Chaim Bloom is not going to dramatically deviate from his player development strategy just because the bridge-year roster he assembled is winning. If Duran comes up it will be because the front office thinks he’s ready, not because the big league club is desperate for a bat. If a decision is made to invest resources in this club this year, it will likely be in the form of a trade for a bat that costs only second-tier prospects and cash. This is not the year that Chaim and company think the Sox are legitimate championship contenders.
Or if there is a key injury and they think he could help.
 

cantor44

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Dec 23, 2020
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I’ll say it again, Chaim Bloom is not going to dramatically deviate from his player development strategy just because the bridge-year roster he assembled is winning. If Duran comes up it will be because the front office thinks he’s ready, not because the big league club is desperate for a bat. If a decision is made to invest resources in this club this year, it will likely be in the form of a trade for a bat that costs only second-tier prospects and cash. This is not the year that Chaim and company think the Sox are legitimate championship contenders.
I think this is accurate. But they ARE winning, so it has created a bit of a conundrum. Because they almost have the best record in baseball, but have clear weaknesses (like no line up depth/length). A CJ Cron kind of trade won't require a first-tier prospect. The question of Duran is more complicated ... because, yes, he could use some more development. But if he's better now than 4 or 5 guys who get regular playing time, and his presence could improve the team's chances ...?
 

YTF

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I think this is accurate. But they ARE winning, so it has created a bit of a conundrum. Because they almost have the best record in baseball, but have clear weaknesses (like no line up depth/length). A CJ Cron kind of trade won't require a first-tier prospect. The question of Duran is more complicated ... because, yes, he could use some more development. But if he's better now than 4 or 5 guys who get regular playing time, and his presence could improve the team's chances ...?
Or Chaim can split the difference and pursue an affordable upgrade to help solidify things, extend the batting order and keep the Sox in playoff contention in the interim and call Duran up later if they feel it's beneficial to both him and the team.
 

billy ashley

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CJ Cron has been kind of terrible this year. I get that he's been better than Dalbec, but he's got an ISO of .158 while playing half his games at Coors. In 2019, he was also pretty much replacement player. His last good normal season was in 2018. Obivously, 2020 isn't his fault and he was very productive that season, but I'm not sure if he's an answer to extending the line up.

If we displace Dalbec, I hope it is for someone who isn't hitting about as well as Dalbec has over 20/21.