Three True Outcomes, The Bobby Dalbec Thread.

nvalvo

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A lot will depend on whether they sustain their hot start. But given the strength of the lineup, the competence of the starting rotation, the effectiveness of the bullpen, and the organizational depth, I think this is shaping up into a contention year.

If Erod had looked rusty, or Pivetta imploded, or Whitlock seemed out of his depth, or Barnes was having a bad year, or JD looked cooked. . .we'd be having a different conversation maybe.

But thus far all the coin flips seem to be heads, except maybe Dalbec - but he's shown signs of life lately.
On this point: Dalbec had a rough first series against the O's, going 0/10 with a BB and 5 Ks (50% K rate), but since then: .314/.368/.486, with three BB and 12 Ks in 38 PAs (32% K rate).

Crucially, that fast stabilizing K rate has fallen to 35 percent overall, which is probably playable.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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On this point: Dalbec had a rough first series against the O's, going 0/10 with a BB and 5 Ks (50% K rate), but since then: .314/.368/.486, with three BB and 12 Ks in 38 PAs (32% K rate).

Crucially, that fast stabilizing K rate has fallen to 35 percent overall, which is probably playable.
Without looking it up... based on the amount I've seen, I'm betting his BABiP is pretty high with that .314 BA. He seems to have had a lot of bad swings fall in for singles... but despite that, I'm still bullish on him. He looks good in the field and suspect with more reps he'll become a GG caliber 1B there. I also think he'll lock in and start launching HR's sooner rather than later. I'm still thinking he'll crank around 30 this season.
 

Rwillh11

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Without looking it up... based on the amount I've seen, I'm betting his BABiP is pretty high with that .314 BA. He seems to have had a lot of bad swings fall in for singles... but despite that, I'm still bullish on him. He looks good in the field and suspect with more reps he'll become a GG caliber 1B there. I also think he'll lock in and start launching HR's sooner rather than later. I'm still thinking he'll crank around 30 this season.
His xWOBA, which is derived from exit velocity and launch angle, is super high (.434 - 23rd among players with at least 40 PA). So he's hitting the ball hard rather than just getting lucky. His bapip (.393) is unsustainably high but the way he is hitting the ball you would expect some HR to make up for that going forward.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Without looking it up... based on the amount I've seen, I'm betting his BABiP is pretty high with that .314 BA. He seems to have had a lot of bad swings fall in for singles... but despite that, I'm still bullish on him. He looks good in the field and suspect with more reps he'll become a GG caliber 1B there. I also think he'll lock in and start launching HR's sooner rather than later. I'm still thinking he'll crank around 30 this season.
.393. Coincidentally, it was .394 last year. His exit velocity is up over last year from 89.9 to 91.6 and his LD% is at a ridiculous 46.4% right now, compared to 26.8% last year. The league average is 27.3%.

Cheap hits are falling but he's having bad luck on well hit balls.
 

Cesar Crespo

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But thus far all the coin flips seem to be heads, except maybe Dalbec - but he's shown signs of life lately.
On this point: Dalbec had a rough first series against the O's, going 0/10 with a BB and 5 Ks (50% K rate), but since then: .314/.368/.486, with three BB and 12 Ks in 38 PAs (32% K rate).

Crucially, that fast stabilizing K rate has fallen to 35 percent overall, which is probably playable.
Without looking it up... based on the amount I've seen, I'm betting his BABiP is pretty high with that .314 BA. He seems to have had a lot of bad swings fall in for singles... but despite that, I'm still bullish on him. He looks good in the field and suspect with more reps he'll become a GG caliber 1B there. I also think he'll lock in and start launching HR's sooner rather than later. I'm still thinking he'll crank around 30 this season.
His xWOBA, which is derived from exit velocity and launch angle, is super high (.434 - 23rd among players with at least 40 PA). So he's hitting the ball hard rather than just getting lucky. His bapip (.393) is unsustainably high but the way he is hitting the ball you would expect some HR to make up for that going forward.
.393. Coincidentally, it was .394 last year. His exit velocity is up over last year from 89.9 to 91.6 and his LD% is at a ridiculous 46.4% right now, compared to 26.8% last year. The league average is 27.3%.

Cheap hits are falling but he's having bad luck on well hit balls.
 

Cesar Crespo

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And defense

Dalbec appears to be an excellent fielder at first base. He's rangy and has soft hands and has already made some remarkable plays. We all want to see him hit, but his glove seems to be enough to give him extra leeway in terms of getting things figured out at the plate. We know he has prodigious power.
His only weakness at 1st so far, at least to my eyes, is around the bag. Fielding throws, holding runners on, etc. He still looks a bit out of place doing those things. There have been a couple plays where the throws weren't great but a seasoned first baseman scoops them without trouble. He's also backed off and let a couple throws bounce up near his chest rather than stretching out and picking the ball on a short hop well out in front of his body, and those are precious milliseconds that allows runners to beat the throw.

That's stuff that can be fixed with experience and more work, so I'm not too worried about it.
His range seems a function of his height, if that makes any sense. He should be a pretty good 1b though. He's probably a marginally better 3b than Devers (not enough to bother).
 

uncannymanny

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The triple last night was beautiful. Nice, easy, 400’ rope. Didn’t know he had the wheels to get to 3B on that either.
 

TonyPenaNeverJuiced

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On the defense eye-test: he's scaring me in what he does at first base, but I often like the results. He botched one scoop yesterday and inexplicably grabbed another with a sweeping motion that worried me, he launched the ball into the moon. But for a starting point, as an MLB, nearly every day 1B starter? There's a lot to be excited about.

I'd like to see him be more aggressive in his ABs. (Again, eye-test) he's taken many hittable pitches, and I'm not sure what he's searching for.
 

joe dokes

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I'd like to see him be more aggressive in his ABs. (Again, eye-test) he's taken many hittable pitches, and I'm not sure what he's searching for.
To me, it's much like Hernandez trying to be a "typical" leadoff hitter (take pitches, not free-swinging, not who he is) messed with him for a couple of weeks, Dalbec might be trying not to swing and miss. It's 50PAs. If he really is trying to overcompensate for his low-contact-ness, I'm sure Cora or Hyers or Fatse will pull him aside and remind him to rip it.
 

burstnbloom

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I honestly don't think Bobby should change anything. He is #10 in the league in barrel% at 19.4% with a somewhat manageable 34% k rate (dont get me wrong, this is a bottom 10% number but I think around expected for Bobby when he's scuffling). I think the home runs are coming soon. I think he's having some weird anomalous results that happen in any 50 PA sample that will normalize here pretty quickly.
 

Chainsaw318

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I honestly don't think Bobby should change anything. He is #10 in the league in barrel% at 19.4% with a somewhat manageable 34% k rate (dont get me wrong, this is a bottom 10% number but I think around expected for Bobby when he's scuffling). I think the home runs are coming soon. I think he's having some weird anomalous results that happen in any 50 PA sample that will normalize here pretty quickly.
I am in agreeance with this thinking. From the last several years of following Dalbec in the minors, this is part of the package.

The contact skills are overall below-average, the patience is above-average, the power is well above-average. He is going to have patient at-bats and then swing and miss.

He has shown the ability to make some adjustments to limit his strike outs, but it won’t impact below-average contact. He’s likely always a sub-.250 hitter.

There have been periods (right after his call-up last year was one) when the power and contact skills line up and he goes nuclear for a series or two. It feels like a good guy to have in the lower-half of the lineup.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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That wxOBA data is pretty cool. I had not seen that before.

Clicking around a bit more on that page you see that Dalbec has the 13th lowest SLG diff which measures the difference between his actual and xSLG. His being -.235. Devers is eighth at -.245 with an expected SLG of .785 (!!!). Sorting the chart by positive diff and we see Arroyo, Xander, and Franchy in the top-15, all outperforming their SLG. Franchy has a true slugging of .289 and an xSLG of .203. Oof.
 

burstnbloom

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That wxOBA data is pretty cool. I had not seen that before.

Clicking around a bit more on that page you see that Dalbec has the 13th lowest SLG diff which measures the difference between his actual and xSLG. His being -.235. Devers is eighth at -.245 with an expected SLG of .785 (!!!). Sorting the chart by positive diff and we see Arroyo, Xander, and Franchy in the top-15, all outperforming their SLG. Franchy has a true slugging of .289 and an xSLG of .203. Oof.
Ya, not ideal. Obvious SSS caveats apply with all of this stuff. Franchy is hitting a lot of ground balls softly and getting decent results on them. He has yet to barrell a ball and he's striking out A LOT. All of his front end statcast stuff is off (LA, avg exit velocity) from his career norms so it could just be that he's not locked in right now and its only 20 balls in play.
 

chawson

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Ya, not ideal. Obvious SSS caveats apply with all of this stuff. Franchy is hitting a lot of ground balls softly and getting decent results on them. He has yet to barrell a ball and he's striking out A LOT. All of his front end statcast stuff is off (LA, avg exit velocity) from his career norms so it could just be that he's not locked in right now and its only 20 balls in play.
Franchy seems pretty focused on hitting the ball the other way, which makes sense as something they’d have him work on (particularly with changeups). He looks a little timid up there to my eyes but it’s early and cold and the team seems fun enough that I expect he’ll loosen up.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Franchy seems pretty focused on hitting the ball the other way, which makes sense as something they’d have him work on (particularly with changeups). He looks a little timid up there to my eyes but it’s early and cold and the team seems fun enough that I expect he’ll loosen up.
I’m seeing the same thing. Not seeing him aggressively turn on many pitches. Too many defensive oppo swings, even in mid counts.
 
Cora and Hiers have a very clear adaptive approach to hitting. Sometimes it shows up very clearly and successfully - especially against good pitching when you see the hitters shortening their swings with runners on base and punching outside pitches to the opposite field. At other times, especially against mediocre pitching, hitters revert back to their bad habits and try to crush everything. The three "true outcome" hitters, Dalbec, Renfroe and Cordero, appear to be having a difficult time adapting to the Cora/Hiers style of play and all have looked pretty pitiful making weak contact or whiffing on a steady diet of pitches out of the zone. When they have made solid contact, it's mostly been warning-track power, either due to weather or slightly deadened balls (or both). Of the three, Dalbec at least appears to be trying to be more adaptive, but it's still a work in progress.
 

bluefenderstrat

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Cora and Hiers have a very clear adaptive approach to hitting. Sometimes it shows up very clearly and successfully - especially against good pitching when you see the hitters shortening their swings with runners on base and punching outside pitches to the opposite field. At other times, especially against mediocre pitching, hitters revert back to their bad habits and try to crush everything. The three "true outcome" hitters, Dalbec, Renfroe and Cordero, appear to be having a difficult time adapting to the Cora/Hiers style of play and all have looked pretty pitiful making weak contact or whiffing on a steady diet of pitches out of the zone. When they have made solid contact, it's mostly been warning-track power, either due to weather or slightly deadened balls (or both). Of the three, Dalbec at least appears to be trying to be more adaptive, but it's still a work in progress.
The bottom of the lineup is a major concern if those guys aren't doing the main thing that makes them useful as offensive players.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Sounds like a golden opportunity. Those are the easiest positions to improve on offensively.
We have to assume these guys get a good chance to produce, right? Bloom knew he was taking a chance with unproven Franchy, he knew he was looking for a bounce back from Renfroe, and he knew Dalbec wouldn’t keep hitting 7 Johnsons every 10 games (or whatever his 2020 sample was). They rolled the dice with these guys hoping to compete but also knowing this is something of a bridge year.
So I’m assuming these guys have til the ASB/trade deadline. I think the interesting thing is where the inflection point to make a change comes. If these guys (any or all) aren’t producing and the Sox are still in front, do they say “we’ve made it this far, with them, let’s keep running them out there”? Or do they jump into GFIN mode and make upgrades?
What about if the Sox are behind a little, but still in it? Is it worth it to push some chips in, or just okay with what you’ve got?
 

Sprowl

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I merged six posts from the Garrett Whitlock thread into this Bobby Dalbec thread.
 

pokey_reese

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I almost posted about this last night, but accidentally deleted it and didn't feel like typing it all up again. In any case, looking at the sweet new Statcast data section of Fangraphs, you can get a good sense that Dalbec is indeed smoking the ball and making great contact, so you have to figure the hits will come. He is 23rd out of 260 hitters in barrel%, 94th in hardhit% (right next to Verdugo), 28th in LD%, and his expected outcomes from such contact put him in the top 50ish range in slugging and xOBA. You hit that many hard line drives, a few will sneak out and the rest should start at least turning into doubles.
 

Danny_Darwin

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For those considering first base targets for trades, Kevin Goldstein suggests C. J. Cron, who seems like a not-exciting but plausible option. He’s hitting well right now - Coor’s Field caveats apply, of course, but even if he reverts to what he’s always been back at sea level, he’d be acceptable. I dare say that his typical performance is not all that far off from what you’d hope to get out of Dalbec. I doubt he’d cost much of anything, and he isn’t getting paid too much either (he’s on a minor-league deal). Something to think about.
 

chawson

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For those considering first base targets for trades, Kevin Goldstein suggests C. J. Cron, who seems like a not-exciting but plausible option. He’s hitting well right now - Coor’s Field caveats apply, of course, but even if he reverts to what he’s always been back at sea level, he’d be acceptable. I dare say that his typical performance is not all that far off from what you’d hope to get out of Dalbec. I doubt he’d cost much of anything, and he isn’t getting paid too much either (he’s on a minor-league deal). Something to think about.
Cron’s a great stopgap target and I’m all for making deals with the Rockies with their front office in shambles. Márquez has slid a bit from down ballot Cy Young guy to change-of-scenery candidate, mostly due to the park, but it’s probably a good time to peel some players out of there.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Last 11 games: .316/.366/.737, .348 BAbip. 3bb/11k, 4 doubles, 4 HRs in 41 PA.

Season line at .218/.271/.419. OPS+ of 88, BAbip of .293.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Last 11 games: .316/.366/.737, .348 BAbip. 3bb/11k, 4 doubles, 4 HRs in 41 PA.

Season line at .218/.271/.419. OPS+ of 88, BAbip of .293.
Was about to post something like this... but less informative. Imagining a normalizing BABiP around .310 he is a very productive player as (correct me if I'm wrong) HR's are not figured into BABiP.... I could at least envision him as a consistent .800+ OPS hitter with what I see as above average defense and very affordable cost wise.... also some flexibility (I'd like to see him spell Devers for a game at 3rd) to accommodate a 1B, DH, 3B rotation of Devers, Casas and him after JD is gone for the next 5-6 years at least
 

Cesar Crespo

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Was about to post something like this... but less informative. Imagining a normalizing BABiP around .310 he is a very productive player as (correct me if I'm wrong) HR's are not figured into BABiP.... I could at least envision him as a consistent .800+ OPS hitter with what I see as above average defense and very affordable cost wise.... also some flexibility (I'd like to see him spell Devers for a game at 3rd) to accommodate a 1B, DH, 3B rotation of Devers, Casas and him after JD is gone for the next 5-6 years at least
HR's aren't figured into BAbip so you are correct. This year, he's put the ball in play 66 times. He's had the 3TO (technically 4 true outcomes, 1 HBP) 67 times, so a little less than 50%. Last year, his 3TO% was 64.1% (59/92) (2 HBP).

His K%/BB from last year were at 42.4% and 10.9%. This year they are at 33.1% and 6.0%.

It would be nice to see the K rate drop below 30%.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Last 11 games: .316/.366/.737, .348 BAbip. 3bb/11k, 4 doubles, 4 HRs in 41 PA.

Season line at .218/.271/.419. OPS+ of 88, BAbip of .293.
Since this post, he has struck out in 10 of his last 15 At bats (16 PA).

Going another 2 games back, he has struck out 14 times in 23 AB (24 PA).

Strike out rate is now at 36.2% for the season. BB% is still at 6.0%
 

bosockboy

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Since this post, he has struck out in 10 of his last 15 At bats (16 PA).

Going another 2 games back, he has struck out 14 times in 23 AB (24 PA).

Strike out rate is now at 36.2% for the season. BB% is still at 6.0%
Yeah seems like we will have to rent a 1B bat if we are still in this in July.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yeah seems like we will have to rent a 1B bat if we are still in this in July.
Possibly. It's only 5 or 7 games and prior to that he was hitting well. He could probably get by with a 35% K rate if he was walking 10-12% of the time but he isn't. My concern with him in the minors was that a lot of his BB would turn into strikeouts. He won't get on nearly enough if his BB% is 6.0%. Give him 6 more walks for the year (makes his BB% 10.0) and his OBP jumps from .262 to .302 and he becomes close to a league average hitter. Make his BB% 12% and his OBP jumps to .322.

Hopefully, he'll go on a HR tear and pitchers will start walking him more as a result.
 

bosockboy

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Possibly. It's only 5 or 7 games and prior to that he was hitting well. He could probably get by with a 35% K rate if he was walking 10-12% of the time but he isn't. My concern with him in the minors was that a lot of his BB would turn into strikeouts. He won't get on nearly enough if his BB% is 6.0%. Give him 6 more walks for the year (makes his BB% 10.0) and his OBP jumps from .262 to .302 and he becomes close to a league average hitter. Make his BB% 12% and his OBP jumps to .322.

Hopefully, he'll go on a HR tear and pitchers will start walking him more as a result.
Yeah there’s no huge rush. We are competing when we weren’t supposed to so it’s all gravy for now. If in late July Bloom thinks this team could steal a championship with a couple extra pieces he’ll do it.
 

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Another golden sombrero today, against Houston.

I must admit, while Cora's strategy of giving players a LOOONG leash seems to pay off more often than not (e.g. Hunter Renfroe), it's depressing to see Bobby come up to the plate in a clutch situation and feel fairly certain he'll just strike out.
 

chawson

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There’s a remarkable absence of references to Wily Mo Peña in this thread if you think about it.

I think Dalbec should make an excellent trade chip at the deadline. Casas should be ready next summer and has a much better hit tool that should keep his average up even if the power doesn’t play right away. Santana should be solid help at first going forward but is more useful in a superutility role. A small deal for Cron, Asdrubal Cabrera or even Jesus Aguilar (all of them ex-Rays) would help keep the depth this year.
 

cantor44

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Dalbec, like most of the rest of the Red Sox, has a miserable BB%. One wonders if Cora's philosophy of being aggressive at the plate has gone too far. The team swings at way too many bad pitches, and doesn't seem to consider situational approaches (when the bases are loaded, and the pitcher has just walked the previous two hitters, goddamnit make him throw a strike before you swing at anything).

We all know there was a game-wide adjustment in baseball in the 00s to take the first pitch and drive up pitch counts (the Ted Williams approach gone mainstream). Pitchers adjusted to this, and started sending the first pitch down the plate to safely get ahead in the count. Hitters counter adjusted and started to swing away at first pitches if they liked what they saw. All of those adjustments, in succession, made sense. I think Cora has taken that last one without seeing any nuance. Time to adjust the adjustment perhaps, and encourage aggression or patience when they respectively make sense, each in their own context.

Sox broadcasters were saying the Sox hitters ALWAYS have the green light no matter what. That seems, well, not so smart to me ...WooSox also don't walk, and it seems the organization has abandoned seeing any value there. But we all should remember, the vast majority of great hitters through history take their walks. And a lot of them. Keep the line moving ....
 
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Danny_Darwin

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Corner-type bats who might be available who are not CJ Cron or Jesus Aguilar include David Peralta, Trey Mancini (would Baltimore actually do this?), Nick Castellanos, Robbie Grossman, Corey Dickerson, and in the “not happening but fun to think about” category, Nelson Cruz.

Note that I included corner outfielders because I figured installing one of them would mean free up one of the multi-position guys to play first more frequently, although I guess they could do that without making a deal. Actually, as I write that, I suspect this is the most likely course of action, initially at least.
 

cantor44

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Corner-type bats who might be available who are not CJ Cron or Jesus Aguilar include David Peralta, Trey Mancini (would Baltimore actually do this?), Nick Castellanos, Robbie Grossman, Corey Dickerson, and in the “not happening but fun to think about” category, Nelson Cruz.

Note that I included corner outfielders because I figured installing one of them would mean free up one of the multi-position guys to play first more frequently, although I guess they could do that without making a deal. Actually, as I write that, I suspect this is the most likely course of action, initially at least.
Though Renfroe is looking better than replacement and Duran is likely up by August ... you may be right, though addressing first base specifically might be wise given Duran's pending promotion. I also wonder if Bloom would - or if it is worth it - to give up the assets you'd have to give up to get a guy like Castellanos.
 

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Corner-type bats who might be available who are not CJ Cron or Jesus Aguilar include David Peralta, Trey Mancini (would Baltimore actually do this?), Nick Castellanos, Robbie Grossman, Corey Dickerson, and in the “not happening but fun to think about” category, Nelson Cruz.

Note that I included corner outfielders because I figured installing one of them would mean free up one of the multi-position guys to play first more frequently, although I guess they could do that without making a deal. Actually, as I write that, I suspect this is the most likely course of action, initially at least.
I don't see Bloom trading for Castellanos. The prospect cost would likely be too high, because if he's available, there will be other suitors. And with an opt-out after next year, it's a big risk to trade a high level prospect (or two) for just one and a half years of him.

Those other names are intriguing. Some of them seem like the type Bloom might sign if they were out there during the off-season a la Renfroe, so as potential depth trade options, I can see it. All depends on the prospect cost. I'm convinced that the top 5-6 guys in the system are untouchable at deadline time, and they're not going to be keen to exceed the luxury tax (even though it has been reset) so the Sox may not have that much buying power in July.
 

cantor44

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I don't see Bloom trading for Castellanos. The prospect cost would likely be too high, because if he's available, there will be other suitors. And with an opt-out after next year, it's a big risk to trade a high level prospect (or two) for just one and a half years of him.

Those other names are intriguing. Some of them seem like the type Bloom might sign if they were out there during the off-season a la Renfroe, so as potential depth trade options, I can see it. All depends on the prospect cost. I'm convinced that the top 5-6 guys in the system are untouchable at deadline time, and they're not going to be keen to exceed the luxury tax (even though it has been reset) so the Sox may not have that much buying power in July.
CJ Cron is on a very cheap contract (1 year/1 Million base) - acquiring him would be a clear improvement, and they team wouldn't go over the luxury tax, or have to pay through the nose in prospects, or commit long term and block Casas. Seems like a good get all things considered.
 

chawson

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CJ Cron is on a very cheap contract (1 year/1 Million base) - acquiring him would be a clear improvement, and they team wouldn't go over the luxury tax, or have to pay through the nose in prospects, or commit long term and block Casas. Seems like a good get all things considered.
Cron is the ideal, but he should have a lot of suitors at that salary and production. I’d send them Chavis or Groome in a heartbeat. Cabrera should cost much less. I could get down with his Howie Kendrick impression this year, and that kind of veteran presence might be helpful in a pennant chase.

Grossman’s another interesting character. I love that walk rate, but he’s under contract for ‘22 and I kinda doubt we take that on when we have Verdugo, Renfroe and Hernandez (more valuable in CF), plus Cordero and Duran on the bubble.

I still don’t know why we should care about the luxury tax. We’ve already reset the damn thing, we’re contenders, and we’ve got $160 million coming off the books in two years. The Yankees look way more vulnerable after their $300 million man’s mysteriously plummeting spin rate last weekend, and DJ LeMahieu’s sudden reversion into Clint Barmes at the plate. Our window could be opening a lot sooner than we think.
 

Rovin Romine

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He's gone from a .959 OPS last year to a .595 OPS this year.

He's managed to hit lefties well - 60 ABs, .824 OPS, 4 homers.

But that means he's putrid against righties - 102 ABs, .462 OPS.

I think we're done for the moment.

Marcus Wilson should come up.
 

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Yeah, the one true outcome should be a trip to AAA. Unfortunately, Josh Omickey has been terrible so far this year, too. The only option at the major league level is Marwin Gonzalez and Christian Arroyo on the right side every day, which is how Bobby Dalbec and his .595 OPS has gotten so much rope so far.
 

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Yesterday in the Globe, Alex Speier quoted Cora as saying something to the effect that "Duran would contribute to the major league team not in one or two months but in one or two years." I found this baffling. Is this a Belichick bluff? Or is that how the Sox view Duran? I say this in the context of Dalbec, because, what with the positional versatility of the many utility players on the current roster, wouldn't Duran contribute more right now to the team than Dalbec?

The Organization's position is that Duran needs further development, which I trust is true. But so does Dalbec, and the team has been quite content to allow him to do his developing at the major league level. Sometimes organizational biases baffle me ... certain guys kept down for too long, others brought up too soon. I understand that Duran only has a handful of AAA games under his belt. And if we had the 2018 outfield playing, yes, you keep him down on the farm. But under present circumstances, I don't quite get the "one or two years" Cora comment.
 

shaggydog2000

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Apr 5, 2007
8,695
Yesterday in the Globe, Alex Speier quoted Cora as saying something to the effect that "Duran would contribute to the major league team not in one or two months but in one or two years." I found this baffling. Is this a Belichick bluff? Or is that how the Sox view Duran? I say this in the context of Dalbec, because, what with the positional versatility of the many utility players on the current roster, wouldn't Duran contribute more right now to the team than Dalbec?

The Organization's position is that Duran needs further development, which I trust is true. But so does Dalbec, and the team has been quite content to allow him to do his developing at the major league level. Sometimes organizational biases baffle me ... certain guys kept down for too long, others brought up too soon. I understand that Duran only has a handful of AAA games under his belt. And if we had the 2018 outfield playing, yes, you keep him down on the farm. But under present circumstances, I don't quite get the "one or two years" Cora comment.
I think releasing him to the Olympic team (which he is now back from) was one sign that they're not in a hurry to get him to the majors. There may be aspects of his game, like his defense, that he still needs to work on. It's hard for us to know as fans what their criteria for his readiness is. We look at what we have available to us, which is mostly batting numbers.

Dalbec is still on the roster because he's the only "natural" 1B they have. And yes, he is converted from another position so that is a weird thing to call him, but it's been his full time position in the majors. There are others with the flexibility to play there (Santana, Gonzalez), but they're not good full time fits. And more importantly, they're also not hitting any better than he is. So if you call up Duran and send down Dalbec, you're not solving the issue of who will play 1B. Renfroe is the regular RF and has started to hit decently. Verdugo has recently settled into LF and there is no way Duran would start over him. They must like Hernandez' defense because he's become the regular CF. If they think the delta in defensive value between Duran and Hernandez is big enough, he really wouldn't have a starting job to step into, and why call him up unless he gets regular playing time at this point in his development?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
14,919
Maine
Yesterday in the Globe, Alex Speier quoted Cora as saying something to the effect that "Duran would contribute to the major league team not in one or two months but in one or two years." I found this baffling. Is this a Belichick bluff? Or is that how the Sox view Duran? I say this in the context of Dalbec, because, what with the positional versatility of the many utility players on the current roster, wouldn't Duran contribute more right now to the team than Dalbec?

The Organization's position is that Duran needs further development, which I trust is true. But so does Dalbec, and the team has been quite content to allow him to do his developing at the major league level. Sometimes organizational biases baffle me ... certain guys kept down for too long, others brought up too soon. I understand that Duran only has a handful of AAA games under his belt. And if we had the 2018 outfield playing, yes, you keep him down on the farm. But under present circumstances, I don't quite get the "one or two years" Cora comment.
Dalbec has over 1600 minor league plate appearances. Duran has just under 1000. Dalbec may simply have "developed" as much as he's going to against minor league pitching. He's at the sink or swim point where he has to figure out how to adjust to big league pitching and he can't do that in Worcester. Duran's not there yet. Including spring training, he's got, what 150 PAs with his new adjusted swing? It seems reasonable that the organization isn't in a rush to get him to the big leagues. Especially since there aren't necessarily a ton of opportunities to play him.
 

reggiecleveland

sublime
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2004
24,957
Saskatoon Canada
Dalbec is like lots of young power guys. He has had a Kevin Maas, Sam Horn type of start, but now he will get some time to play. I am not a big Arod guy but liked, what he said about Dalbec, that the power is tantalizing so he will get a long time to figure it out. Arod said he Cora was constantly taking the pressure off Dalbec. The hope was once week he he wins a game for you with a bomb.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
14,914
Miami (oh, Miami!)
Dalbec is still on the roster because he's the only "natural" 1B they have. And yes, he is converted from another position so that is a weird thing to call him, but it's been his full time position in the majors. There are others with the flexibility to play there (Santana, Gonzalez), but they're not good full time fits. And more importantly, they're also not hitting any better than he is. So if you call up Duran and send down Dalbec, you're not solving the issue of who will play 1B. Renfroe is the regular RF and has started to hit decently. Verdugo has recently settled into LF and there is no way Duran would start over him. They must like Hernandez' defense because he's become the regular CF. If they think the delta in defensive value between Duran and Hernandez is big enough, he really wouldn't have a starting job to step into, and why call him up unless he gets regular playing time at this point in his development?
The reason to send Dalbec down is because we're actually in the playoff hunt. Right now Dalbec, Santana, Gonzalez, and to some extent Hernandez are all dead weight with the bats. Someone needs to go, and if it means swapping Hernandez for Wilson, while sending Dalbec down and playing Santana at 1B, so be it. We keep all the binkies in that scenario, even the crappy ones.

We just need to upgrade a couple of bats from abysmal to average-ish.

For position players on the 40 we have:
Noncontendors:
Connor Wong, Ronaldo Hernandez: catchers.
Jeisson Rosario, CF. AA. Not hitting well this year.
Hudson Potts (Injured)

Possible help:
Franchy Cordero, LF. Crushing righties, minimal but crappy exposure to lefties.
Marcus Wilson, CF. Knocking the snot out of the ball in AAA with no platoon split. And can play CF.
Jonathan Arauz, 2B, SS, 3B. Noodle bat with flashes.
Michael Chavis. 1B. Sometimes slighty worse than average is better than nothing.

If you dump/trade Gonzalez or Santana, OF Johan Mieses currently has a hot bat.