Those Big QB Contracts

[Super Nomario]

Based in part on some conversations here about the Rivers and Wilson and the potential Eli deal, I started working on a piece for ITP about what the alternative is to signing a QB to big money. That led me down the rabbit hole of modern QB history: http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/long-form-editorial/2015/08/28/the-nfl-qb-merry-go-round/
 
A few tid-bits:

• Of the 32 teams, 21 or 22 figure to start a quarterback who has never played for anyone else.
• Aside from Brees, no quarterback has won a Super Bowl with his second team since Brad Johnson with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back in 2003.
• Kansas City famously hasn’t used a first-round pick on a quarterback since Todd Blackledge in 1983, who stands, amazingly, as the last QB the Chiefs have drafted to win a game. Of their draftees since 2002, only Brodie Croyle has started a game for them, losing all 10 of his starts between 2007 and 2010.

A warning: it gets dark at times, especially when I talk about the Browns. Children shouldn't have to read about Charlie Frye.

 

[Super Nomario]

This was posted to reddit/nfl and there's some great discussion there: https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/3iq2ap/whats_the_real_cost_of_a_bad_qb/
 

 
The initial payment is losing the season as a whole. You draft them, start them as a rookie and the first season (might go terribly) and you say "Eh, they're a rookie, no big deal." Then the next season, it's the same shit, they still make mistakes, nothing quite improves and it becomes another lost season. It's even worse when it's just the QB play but the defense keeps you in the game the whole time and you win just enough games to stay out of the top 5 picks but not see the playoffs (or in Cincy's case, see the playoffs and shit out every time).
Then comes the questions, as things begin to pileup and the stress on the QB builds, the doubters ask the questions and people start wondering "Are they really good." This is the second payment as the fans begin to lose faith in the GM, the Head Coach and the QB. The whole fan base starts to get antsy and the money and viewership might start taking a hit which forces action from the top down. The QB, Coach and GM all realize quickly they gotta figure this out quick and the QB is usually the first one to get the ax, especially if things have not improved (and never are).
Then comes the third, you trade/cut them and go looking for the journeyman QB to fill the spot until the GM and Coach (assuming they're still there) can draft a kid that 'fits' the system or land the free agent veteran who's dissatisfied with they're old team. Not always the case mind you, as the millions of factors in drafting anyone make finding a 'good' QB nigh impossible most the time, so the 'tried and true' QBs are the more sought after ones.
Now sprinkle in between all those points that your coach could be a fucking loon (HEY SCHIANO!) or your QB doesn't have the work ethic (Russell) or gets injured a bunch (Bradford) and you're left losing season after season after season sometimes being at .500 or worse but never hitting the sea floor.
The real cost of a QB is your fans not buying shit, not watching shit and not giving a shit. You go through Coaches, GMs and Players like candy and have no consistency as you continue to try and remedy the problem and nothing changes.
That's the life of a lot of teams.

 

[snowmanny]

So aren't good quarterbacks underpaid? Isn't it true that even beyond the salary cap, the structure of the NFL (especially franchise tags) keeps these guys from getting what they would get as actual free agents? What would Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers get paid if they became unencumbered true free agents next February?

 

[Super Nomario]

So aren't good quarterbacks underpaid? Isn't it true that even beyond the salary cap, the structure of the NFL (especially franchise tags) keeps these guys from getting what they would get as actual free agents? What would Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers get paid if they became unencumbered true free agents next February?

That's a terrific question. I think what you're seeing is kind of a bizarre constricted market where normal forces don't apply. None of these QBs ever actually hit free agency, so they're always negotiating at points where they don't have any alternatives. And the team really doesn't have any alternatives, either. It would be fascinating to see a Scott Boras in the NFL represent someone like Luck and say, "you can franchise him twice, I don't give a shit - but we're hitting free agency."

 

[dcmissle]

Who knows? Some good QB's were definitely underpaid for structural reasons -- e.g, Russell Wilson -- but I have no idea what the best ones would command in a freer market. The salary cap is here to stay. At what point does the extra money for Aaron Rodgers represent setback for the Packers because it is cutting muscle and bone elsewhere? No clue.

There is overpaying too, of course, but I think that is hard to measure as well, other than busts right out of the gate. Sure, several are probably skimming extra dollars, but the position is by far the most important and teams understandly value stability there longer term. Not to mention what could be grotesque cap implications trying to carry guys year to year.

 

[mauf]

I'm skeptical that QBs outside of the top five or so are underpaid.
 
You can reach the Super Bowl with the likes of Joe Flacco or Colin Kaepernick under center, of course. It's not clear that you can get there with a QB like that eating up $20mm or so of your cap.

 

[twothousandone]

At what point does the extra money for Aaron Rodgers represent setback for the Packers because it is cutting muscle and bone elsewhere? No clue.

And at what point does the extra money for Aaron Rodgers represent a setback for Aaron Rodgers, for all the same reasons?

I don't think anyone wants to be Archie Manning -- highest paid player (at least in 1981) and never had a winning season -- one .500 season.
I wonder if Roethlisberger provides (or will provide) an unusually useful data point. Three super bowls in his first 7 years, with his first and second contracts. The second contract escalated notably in 2013 and 2014, and now he's on a five-year deal at $20 million each. (A bunch of guys here are better at the cap than I am). The correlation isn't perfect, but if they don't turn things around, it could suggest that Roethlisberger's percentage under the cap was too high to enable the team to compete.

 

[crystalline]

I'm skeptical that QBs outside of the top five or so are underpaid.
 
You can reach the Super Bowl with the likes of Joe Flacco or Colin Kaepernick under center, of course. It's not clear that you can get there with a QB like that eating up $20mm or so of your cap.

Agreed.

Yet it would be very interesting to see what bids Flacco would get as an unrestricted FA. How much would Oakland have offered if he had hit the market this year?

 

[mauf]

Agreed.

Yet it would be very interesting to see what bids Flacco would get as an unrestricted FA. How much would Oakland have offered if he had hit the market this year?

If Flacco magically became a free agent and nothing else changed, he'd make bank. But in a truly free market with no franchise tag, other QBs would test the market too. The elite guys would probably earn more, but I think a slightly above-average guy like Flacco would earn a bit less in such a free-market scenario.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Nice article. It's amazing to me that the NFL has morphed into a QB driven league when there are clearly not enough QBs to go along.

Chip Kelly apparently did the same research you did with respect to obtaining Bradford. From this interview (http://www.phillymag.com/birds247/2015/07/26/with-sam-bradford-chip-kelly-believes-odds-are-in-his-favor/), he said:
 

“We looked at everything, and we knew we weren’t going to pick No. 1 or No. 2. So, and I’ve said it before, if you’re not going to pick one or two, how do you go get a quarterback?" said Kelly, explaining the thought process heading into this offseason. "Peyton Manning switched teams because of an injury. Drew Brees switched teams because of an injury. So we went down that path.”