Thompson to Atlanta for Dunn+Fernando and 2023 2nd

Cellar-Door

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Beal is obviously a very good player, but are we sure he's really a great fit next to Tatum and Brown? Beal is a pretty iso-heavy player - combined with Tatum I'm a little fearful the team would be dreadfully boring (unless of course they are winning all the time).
I don't think he's particularly high up the list of best fits, but he's also a clear max guy who seems to have an interest in playing here with the guys we have, and who is going to be available. Ideally you'd want your 3rd star to either be a point or a rim protecting 4/5, but you may not have a real chance at one any time soon.
 

oumbi

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For Sure
Tatum $30.3m
Jaylen $28.7m

Probably
Langford $5.6m
Nesmith $3.8m
Pritchard $2.2m

That makes $70.6m. Cap is projected at $115m so that leaves about $45m.

Beal max seems like it starts right around $40m, so there's only $5m of wiggle room there. So would have to renounce TL/Smart/JRich/etc.

Horford would 100% need to be absorbed by someone. It's only a partially guaranteed year, so might not be that expensive to slough him off.

I'm a bit confused if we actually dumped Grant & Edwards, but we also wouldn't pick up their options if they're still around.

Moses costs like $1.4m if we want him sticking around.

Alternatively, could keep TL's hold & dump Langford & it would be at least super close.

It looks to me though, that if Beal really plans to go to Boston, he would want to get the 5 years from the Wizards so they could probably work something out to get the extra pieces.

I'm half asleep, don't feel well, & doubt this post makes sense, but que sera sera.
Color me ignorant. This is a good post, but if Beal comes to Boston after next season, would not the cap possibly be increased by the NBA by then? If so, would that allow the Celtics to keep Smart and maybe, perhaps, possibly, mayhaps, could-be TL as well?
 

Cellar-Door

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Color me ignorant. This is a good post, but if Beal comes to Boston after next season, would not the cap possibly be increased by the NBA by then? If so, would that allow the Celtics to keep Smart and maybe, perhaps, possibly, mayhaps, could-be TL as well?
Unlikely the league projects them out, so you usually have a good idea what it will be, even more so because they fudged some stuff for this year and next because of the revenue drop last year, so there is almost no way the revenue goes up enough for the cap to change, it's already set artificially high because of the agreement on how to spread things out.
 

nighthob

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For Sure
Tatum $30.3m
Jaylen $28.7m

Probably
Langford $5.6m
Nesmith $3.8m
Pritchard $2.2m

That makes $70.6m. Cap is projected at $115m so that leaves about $45m.

Beal max seems like it starts right around $40m, so there's only $5m of wiggle room there. So would have to renounce TL/Smart/JRich/etc.

Horford would 100% need to be absorbed by someone. It's only a partially guaranteed year, so might not be that expensive to slough him off.

I'm a bit confused if we actually dumped Grant & Edwards, but we also wouldn't pick up their options if they're still around.

Moses costs like $1.4m if we want him sticking around.

Alternatively, could keep TL's hold & dump Langford & it would be at least super close.

It looks to me though, that if Beal really plans to go to Boston, he would want to get the 5 years from the Wizards so they could probably work something out to get the extra pieces.

I'm half asleep, don't feel well, & doubt this post makes sense, but que sera sera.
The goal isn’t to sign Beal as a free agent, it’s to show the rest of the NBA that they have an easy path to signing Beal next summer. Because no one makes a Jruesque offer for Beal with Boston having an easy path to signing him and one of Beal’s oldest friends on their roster.

Basically the plan is to re-run the Davis to the Lakers scenario (by making the deal inevitable). Only with Boston accumulating enough mid level contracts to make the trade without gutting the roster.
 

radsoxfan

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I don't think he's particularly high up the list of best fits, but he's also a clear max guy who seems to have an interest in playing here with the guys we have, and who is going to be available. Ideally you'd want your 3rd star to either be a point or a rim protecting 4/5, but you may not have a real chance at one any time soon.
I agree. Beal isn't the ideal fit but still think I'd take the talent over the fit and hope they can make it work. If you can get a prime legit max guy that fits better than Beal, go for it of course. But that player probably isn't out there.

KD, Harden, and Kyrie aren't necessarily an ideal fit either, but they likely win the title without injuries.
 

Euclis20

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I agree. Beal isn't the ideal fit but still think I'd take the talent over the fit and hope they can make it work. If you can get a prime legit max guy that fits better than Beal, go for it of course. But that player probably isn't out there.

KD, Harden, and Kyrie aren't necessarily an ideal fit either, but they likely win the title without injuries.
This is the thing. You gather enough top talent and there's a decent chance it works out, regardless of fit. He's far from the first all-star we'd choose to pair with the Jays but he's got the most important factor (he might want to come here) in hand. He's also just 28 and has never played on a team that had aspirations beyond the 2nd round - his game is mostly baked in at this point, but it wouldn't be shocking if he started looking better when paired with a couple of young all-stars.
 

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My thinking is that Brad doesn’t even care about the fit. You get Beal in the fold and see how it goes. If it looks like it’s not working, then you have a very marketable piece in Jaylen to re-configure the team while building your offense around the St. Louis boys.
 

JM3

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The goal isn’t to sign Beal as a free agent, it’s to show the rest of the NBA that they have an easy path to signing Beal next summer. Because no one makes a Jruesque offer for Beal with Boston having an easy path to signing him and one of Beal’s oldest friends on their roster.

Basically the plan is to re-run the Davis to the Lakers scenario (by making the deal inevitable). Only with Boston accumulating enough mid level contracts to make the trade without gutting the roster.
I understand. But I assume the Wizards would at least run the #s (in a far more scientific way than I did) to see how much of a threat that actually is, because even if Beal to the Celtics is a foregone conclusion (which I'm not quite as sure of as you are), I believe there are 3 options:

1) Acquire in trade toward deadline.
2) Acquire as free agent on 3+player option at max into space.
3) Acquire via s+t on 4+player option at max.

& each option would lead to a slightly different roster constitution & leave them with a different array of future picks.
 

JM3

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I actually think Beal fits fine. He's an excellent shooter who can also create offense for himself & others. Lots of gravity & open shots with that big 3. Lots of scrambling defenses if offense is run right.

Can't think of many players who would be a much better fit who would plausibly ever be available?
 

Cellar-Door

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I actually think Beal fits fine. He's an excellent shooter who can also create offense for himself & others. Lots of gravity & open shots with that big 3. Lots of scrambling defenses if offense is run right.

Can't think of many players who would be a much better fit who would plausibly ever be available?
I could see the case for SGA fit wise, also maybe Lillard. There is a case that a dominant big (none of those available) or a top PG are better fits because it gives you a lot more flexibility, where Beal leaves you needing rim protection and a distributor still, and he's not a great defender, so you need the distributor to be a switchable defender.

Still I think Beal is an obvious move if the price is right, you can't hold out for the perfect fit in the NBA, just get the talent and try to fill the gaps the best you can.
 

Lazy vs Crazy

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I actually think Beal fits fine. He's an excellent shooter who can also create offense for himself & others. Lots of gravity & open shots with that big 3. Lots of scrambling defenses if offense is run right.

Can't think of many players who would be a much better fit who would plausibly ever be available?
He has shot .350 from 3 for the past three seasons. Maybe he gets back up to .400 but he hasn’t done that since the 16/17 season. I’d rather look elsewhere unless Tatum is demanding him. I would prefer even someone like CJ McCollum.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The goal isn’t to sign Beal as a free agent, it’s to show the rest of the NBA that they have an easy path to signing Beal next summer. Because no one makes a Jruesque offer for Beal with Boston having an easy path to signing him and one of Beal’s oldest friends on their roster.

Basically the plan is to re-run the Davis to the Lakers scenario (by making the deal inevitable). Only with Boston accumulating enough mid level contracts to make the trade without gutting the roster.
Right. The game has changed with agents and GM’s working in tandem. The Wizards aren’t going to lose Beal for zero......his agent works the sides to ensure everything is aligned to get a deal done preferably by the deadline. A deadline deal would look something like Smart, J-Rich, Nesmith, our stash, and picks......once they know what Smart’s number is.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He has shot .350 from 3 for the past three seasons. Maybe he gets back up to .400 but he hasn’t done that since the 16/17 season. I’d rather look elsewhere unless Tatum is demanding him. I would prefer even someone like CJ McCollum.
If Beal was getting CJ’s shots he’d be at 40%.....if CJ had to work as hard as Beal to get off his 20+ shots each night you probably be looking at around 35% from him. All shots are not created equally.
 

JM3

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I could see the case for SGA fit wise, also maybe Lillard. There is a case that a dominant big (none of those available) or a top PG are better fits because it gives you a lot more flexibility, where Beal leaves you needing rim protection and a distributor still, and he's not a great defender, so you need the distributor to be a switchable defender.

Still I think Beal is an obvious move if the price is right, you can't hold out for the perfect fit in the NBA, just get the talent and try to fill the gaps the best you can.
Agree with SGA. But I think that's because he's a better player & age match more so than the fit thing.

I really don't know why you would need more distribution than those 3 provide, though. They all carry heavy usage & can create shots for themselves & others.

Lillard...idk. I'm sure it would work out OK. Not that into it, though.
 

JM3

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He has shot .350 from 3 for the past three seasons. Maybe he gets back up to .400 but he hasn’t done that since the 16/17 season. I’d rather look elsewhere unless Tatum is demanding him. I would prefer even someone like CJ McCollum.
Yeah, when carrying huge usage on bad teams his shooting % declined. When he was playing with healthy Wall he played a more similar role than I would expect him to play here where he had a lower usage & was used more as a spot up shooter where he excelled.

There is no reason to think he suddenly got bad at hitting open shots.

CJ is a very poor man's Beal...
 

Euclis20

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He has shot .350 from 3 for the past three seasons. Maybe he gets back up to .400 but he hasn’t done that since the 16/17 season. I’d rather look elsewhere unless Tatum is demanding him. I would prefer even someone like CJ McCollum.
Others covered it, but for the first five years of his career, Beal played alongside a healthy and AS level John Wall. Over those five years, Beal shot .399 from 3 on 5.1 attempts per game. After 2017, Wall would play just 73 more games total for Washington. The second leading scorer on the Wizards over the next 3 years would be Otto Porter, Jeff Green and Bertrans. He had Westbrook last year which is something, but that's about it. Maybe he just forgot how to shoot, or maybe being the only above average scorer on a team surrounded by mediocrity (at best) isn't great for scoring efficiency.

Worth noting that despite the relatively pedestrian 3 point shooting, Beal was still a more efficient scorer than Tatum last year. Offensively it would be a really nice fit, really no other way to see that.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Beal is obviously a very good player, but are we sure he's really a great fit next to Tatum and Brown? Beal is a pretty iso-heavy player - combined with Tatum I'm a little fearful the team would be dreadfully boring (unless of course they are winning all the time).
This is a fair question to ask, but... if the three were all committed to making it work, it would work. Beal has averaged 5 assists per game over the past 4 years, good for a SG, and among their many talents Tatum and Brown are both very good catch and shoot guys.

The fit is not as good as our last big 3 because there is no KG-type defensive monster, but if they were committed they could make it work.
 

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This is a fair question to ask, but... if the three were all committed to making it work, it would work. Beal has averaged 5 assists per game over the past 4 years, good for a SG, and among their many talents Tatum and Brown are both very good catch and shoot guys.

The fit is not as good as our last big 3 because there is no KG-type defensive monster, but if they were committed they could make it work.
I don't think that fit is a concern. You can drop almost anyone between Tatum and Brown and be ok.

Sure, the wrong guy can fuck things up. But there's no reason to think that Beal isn't a team player. I mean, he has played with guys who aren't exactly perfect players in Wall and Westbrook and a lot of jags, and he's well regarded around the league.
 

benhogan

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Right. The game has changed with agents and GM’s working in tandem. The Wizards aren’t going to lose Beal for zero......his agent works the sides to ensure everything is aligned to get a deal done preferably by the deadline. A deadline deal would look something like Smart, J-Rich, Nesmith, our stash, and picks......once they know what Smart’s number is.
Not sure if David Falk invented the Agent playing GM/player movement game but it's been going on for decades. David Stern gave it his blessing a long time ago

He has shot .350 from 3 for the past three seasons. Maybe he gets back up to .400 but he hasn’t done that since the 16/17 season. I’d rather look elsewhere unless Tatum is demanding him. I would prefer even someone like CJ McCollum.
Much like Tatum, Bradley Beal works his butt off in the summers with Pure Sweat/Drew Hanlen. His game is more developed/better than it was 3-4yrs ago. When you are constantly guarded by the opponent's best defender or double/tripled team when getting hot, the shooting % will suffer. While his counting #s/points would decline in Boston, I'd expect his scoring efficiency to increase. I'd also expect Beal's defensive metrics to improve with a coach/team stressing D, better defenders around him, less mpg/usage, and games having more meaning.
 

mcpickl

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Others covered it, but for the first five years of his career, Beal played alongside a healthy and AS level John Wall. Over those five years, Beal shot .399 from 3 on 5.1 attempts per game. After 2017, Wall would play just 73 more games total for Washington. The second leading scorer on the Wizards over the next 3 years would be Otto Porter, Jeff Green and Bertrans. He had Westbrook last year which is something, but that's about it. Maybe he just forgot how to shoot, or maybe being the only above average scorer on a team surrounded by mediocrity (at best) isn't great for scoring efficiency.

Worth noting that despite the relatively pedestrian 3 point shooting, Beal was still a more efficient scorer than Tatum last year. Offensively it would be a really nice fit, really no other way to see that.
This I think is the best part of the fit.

Since your three best players/scorers would all be wings, the opponent better have a hell of a lot of depth at the wing or that threesome will be near impossible to stop.

My biggest worry would be chemistry. Jaylen just made his first all star team. Is he willing at age just turning 25 when the season starts to be the third option on the team? He's according to pretty much everybody very mature for his age, but I could see that as an issue. I keep thinking back to all the quotes from KG/Ray/Pierce saying they didn't think that threesome would've worked if they were thrown together when they were younger, but hitting their 30s and having won nothing they were ready to sacrifice their games to win.

It's still a move they'd have to make if they could get Beal at a fair price, but it comes with a decent risk if Jaylen isn't on board.
 

benhogan

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https://theathletic.com/2744260/2021/07/31/celtics-hawks-kings-mavericks-trade-discussion-what-the-tristan-thompson-and-josh-richardson-trades-were-all-about/

kind of agree with Partnow but PBS did add a 2nd and 1yr $9.7MM TPE

Partnow's take:
my biggest question coming out of this deal is why not just trade Thompson for Wright straight up and skip the Atlanta middlemen? Wright has similar defensive size and versatility to Richardson, is probably a better bet to be a competent shooter, will make around $3 million less this season (and around $1.2 million less than Thompson). Plus he has the ability to play some point guard minutes, a spot where Boston currently has a gaping hole.

So overall, good trade, but on balance could have been a touch better.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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https://theathletic.com/2744260/2021/07/31/celtics-hawks-kings-mavericks-trade-discussion-what-the-tristan-thompson-and-josh-richardson-trades-were-all-about/

kind of agree with Partnow but PBS did add a 2nd and 1yr $9.7MM TPE

Partnow's take:
my biggest question coming out of this deal is why not just trade Thompson for Wright straight up and skip the Atlanta middlemen? Wright has similar defensive size and versatility to Richardson, is probably a better bet to be a competent shooter, will make around $3 million less this season (and around $1.2 million less than Thompson). Plus he has the ability to play some point guard minutes, a spot where Boston currently has a gaping hole.

So overall, good trade, but on balance could have been a touch better.
No mention at all about TT being a salary dump so now he can easily move Dunn’s $5m rather than Delon’s $8.6m? It’s criminal that these clowns can cover a league and be so tone deaf as to a teams big picture.
 

benhogan

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No mention at all about TT being a salary dump so now he can easily move Dunn’s $5m rather than Delon’s $8.6m? It’s criminal that these clowns can cover a league and be so tone deaf as to a teams big picture.
I think he's just saying that he likes Delon better than JRich, but like you said there is more to it than comparing those two
 

Cellar-Door

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No mention at all about TT being a salary dump so now he can easily move Dunn’s $5m rather than Delon’s $8.6m? It’s criminal that these clowns can cover a league and be so tone deaf as to a teams big picture.
He's saying do this deal and don't do the Dallas deal. Basically, instead of a net gain of $7.5M in salary to turn Brown/TT into Richardson/Dunn/ he thinks they should have turned TT into Wright straight up, saved $1M.
I get his argument if you think Wright is better than Richardson. Now also it's possible that Brad really just wanted to turn the TPE into an aggregateable salary and add Dunn as another, so the intent wasn't to get the best player return, or even cut the most salary, but instead get a combination of players that you can add to Smart and match salaries for a Beal (or other 30M+ max guy) trade.
 

Jimbodandy

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He's saying do this deal and don't do the Dallas deal. Basically, instead of a net gain of $7.5M in salary to turn Brown/TT into Richardson/Dunn/ he thinks they should have turned TT into Wright straight up, saved $1M.
I get his argument if you think Wright is better than Richardson. Now also it's possible that Brad really just wanted to turn the TPE into an aggregateable salary and add Dunn as another, so the intent wasn't to get the best player return, or even cut the most salary, but instead get a combination of players that you can add to Smart and match salaries for a Beal (or other 30M+ max guy) trade.
I think your conclusion here is spot on. Improving this year's team is a thing, but all signs point to a game plan whose path ends in Beal here. Marginal differences in players matter of course, but the end result would be transformative in a way that guys like JRich and Delon just aren't.
 

benhogan

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I think your conclusion here is spot on. Improving this year's team is a thing, but all signs point to a game plan whose path ends in Beal here. Marginal differences in players matter of course, but the end result would be transformative in a way that guys like JRich and Delon just aren't.
yep PBS is getting expiring salary pieces to attach to a young controllable(s) + draft picks for the bigger fish. If Beal falls through (feels like a coin toss it happens) the backup plan would be to go after another FA/RFA or make a GFIN trade next summer, I guess.
 

nighthob

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I think your conclusion here is spot on. Improving this year's team is a thing, but all signs point to a game plan whose path ends in Beal here. Marginal differences in players matter of course, but the end result would be transformative in a way that guys like JRich and Delon just aren't.
Yeah, the new TPE allows them to pick up another medium salary to aggregate in a Beal deal.
 

128

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Doesn't this deal have to be finalized by the end of the day?
 

mcpickl

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Doesn't this deal have to be finalized by the end of the day?
No, the Richardson one did.

It's slightly better that this deal goes through tomorrow.

TPE for Thompson will be slightly higher.

Enough to fit in any of last years full MLE guys, like Ibaka
 

Cellar-Door

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No, the Richardson one did.

It's slightly better that this deal goes through tomorrow.

TPE for Thompson will be slightly higher.

Enough to fit in any of last years full MLE guys, like Ibaka
It's better if this goes through today actually, then they can use the Kanter TPE for Dunn and still have the Kemba TPE available for a full year. If it doesn't you have to use the Kemba TPE because Dunn's salary will be too big, so the Kanter TPE likely expires and you burned the Kemba TPE for nothing.
 

mcpickl

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It's better if this goes through today actually, then they can use the Kanter TPE for Dunn and still have the Kemba TPE available for a full year. If it doesn't you have to use the Kemba TPE because Dunn's salary will be too big, so the Kanter TPE likely expires and you burned the Kemba TPE for nothing.
It depends what they're doing. If they have an expectation to grab one of last years MLE failures, they can process the trade tomorrow, have the bigger TPE to fit that guy in, and use the Theis TPE to fit in Dunn. In this case, they'd only have til midnight tomorrow if they wanted to also use the Kanter TPE.

If they don't have something in the works for one of those MLE guys, then I agree it would be better to finish the deal tonight and save the Theis TPE.

I'm just spitballing, but I'm guessing if it's not done tonight there's a reason besides they're haggling over a second round pick or something. Only thing I can figure is it's they need the slightly bigger TPE.

Could be useful in a longshot Beal trade, if Washington wanted to get off of more money, to have a TPE Montrez Harrell will fit in.
 

Eddie Jurak

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That's weird. Seems like the Celtics have lost some of what was advantageous to them about the deal. Are they getting somethign else in return? If not, this looks bad.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Or the deal fell through?
If the TPE is used on Dunn wouldn’t that preclude him from being traded for a certain period? Assuming this is the case the delay makes perfect sense in that we are looking to expand the deal to move Dunn to a room team for the often-traveled “highly protected 2nd round pick.”
 

pjheff

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That's weird. Seems like the Celtics have lost some of what was advantageous to them about the deal. Are they getting somethign else in return? If not, this looks bad.
I‘m wondering if Stevens is trying to expand the deal so as to offload some contract(s) that he was unable to foist on Dallas.
 

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Is there any chance that PBS is arranging his incoming pieces specifically to appeal to WAS in a Beal-Deal? IOW, will it matter to WAS what the pieces are that comprise the player-portion of this future deal? Maybe they would want all expiring contracts? Maybe they want specific types of players?

Put another way: are all these summer deals really just part of an elaborate 4-6 team deal that ends with Beal in Boston? And if so, might the Wiz GM having any input?
 

benhogan

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Is there any chance that PBS is arranging his incoming pieces specifically to appeal to WAS in a Beal-Deal? IOW, will it matter to WAS what the pieces are that comprise the player-portion of this future deal? Maybe they would want all expiring contracts? Maybe they want specific types of players?

Put another way: are all these summer deals really just part of an elaborate 4-6 team deal that ends with Beal in Boston? And if so, might the Wiz GM having any input?
Yea it feels like Brad is focused on moveable pieces + financial flexibility > talent upgrade
Delon Wright is better than JRich or Dunn, but the TT trade is about $$$ flex.

I'd be surprised if they were in contact with the Wiz GM and letting them orchestrate player acquisition. BUT Brad & Co are probably trying to read the tea leaves and put together the most compelling Beal package.

BTW The Locked-On podcast/John Karalis ripped Tristan Thompson on his way out. Much worse than anyone ever around here ripped Tristan. To me TT (smart/well-spoken) was OK, but 100% had to be moved with the emergence of TL/ acq. of Horford. Just can't pay a 3rd string BIG

go to 9:15 for Karalis opinion on TT

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhAGk5nk5CQ
 

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KOC and Chris Vernon also got a lot of crap for reporting on TT's alleged partying during COVID and perception in the locker room. The players stuck up for him, but there seems to be a lot of smoke surrounding his Celtics tenure.
 

nighthob

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Yea it feels like Brad is focused on moveable pieces + financial flexibility > talent upgrade
Delon Wright is better than JRich or Dunn, but the TT trade is about $$$ flex.

I'd be surprised if they were in contact with the Wiz GM and letting them orchestrate player acquisition. BUT Brad & Co are probably trying to read the tea leaves and put together the most compelling Beal package.
I think the compelling package is a bevy of draft picks. I think what they’re really about is accumulating enough salary to make a deal without touching any of their core 3 or Al. If they could acquire a $13-$14 million dollar expiring deal in the Thompson trade the outgoing salary for Beal could be made up between that, Richardson, and one of Langford/Nesmith. Meaning that Boston would be an instant contender as the other two guys on the floor would be defensive oriented Swiss Army knife guys.
 

Cellar-Door

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Both Karalis and Simmons and Jackie all seemed to be hinting at not taking the regular season seriously and going out partying during COVID. I do not think any of them were talking about how he treats the media.
I didn't think they were. I was just noting that he has few fans among people who cover teams, but he's almost universally very well liked among players
 

the moops

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I think the compelling package is a bevy of draft picks. I think what they’re really about is accumulating enough salary to make a deal without touching any of their core 3 or Al.
Is Smart the 3rd piece? Also, I would gladly ship off Horford if that salary is necessary
 

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Nashua, NH
YMMV on the importance of chemistry and "locker room" guys, but I really want Al on this team because he seems to be a very good influence on Tatum and Brown. I think there is a lot of off-court value in having a veteran like him on the roster, especially coming off last season.