This year's ESPN hit piece

Super Nomario

Super Nomario

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PedroKsBambino said:
Exactly. The data here is quite clear; I get that we all love Brady, but some folks are letting that get in the way of looking at the probabilities in a sober way.

The key point here is the shot Brady got initially---I agree with those who say that even his first 8 games earned him more opportunities. But few guys starting where he did get a 'clean' 8 game shot, and I think it's really tough to make the case that Belichick drafting him, keeping him as a fourth QB, and then elevating him to backup and giving him that shot wasn't very unique, and something Belichick has to get the credit for.

I guess you could argue that after 2-3 games he earned the rest of them, and limit the comparison to guys who went that low, were the fourth QB for a year, moved up to second, and then had 2-3 games to prove themselves...but I'm confident that is a very small set of guys, too.

Saying those things are pretty clearly true does not change that Belichick is lucky too--most guys you give that shot to aren't anywhere near as able to take it and run with it as Brady has been, and the success the team has had is built on that, too. Brady deserves credit for making himself into the best QB in league history, and Belichick has benefitted hugely from that. But the reality is Brady got his shot because Belichick gave it to him, and in a context few would have.
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I have two issues with this line of thinking. One, we have additional information about Brady beyond him being chosen at pick 199. Some of that data is evident only in hindsight and is not fair to apply to the likelihood of early Brady catching on. However, some of this information would have been and should have been evident to whichever team chose Brady in the sixth or seventh round or signed him as a priority UDFA. Brady's smarts, accuracy, leadership / charisma, and drive would have shown up in camp and the preseason wherever he went. Teams demanding elite physical tools still might not be impressed, but they likely aren't picking him up anyway. We also know one of the reasons Brady slipped - the Henson situation - was total nonsense, and that also would have been evident. To me, there has to be a middle ground between the extremes of "Brady was destined to be GOAT anywhere" and "Brady had no better odds than your typical 199th pick."

The second issue I have is that even if you give Belichick 100% credit (or more realistically, 75% credit or something) for 2001 Brady, over time I don't think it's reasonable to continue to give him that kind of credit for what Brady continues to accomplish. A lot of other events (and not just events, but day-to-day blood, sweat, and tears) have happened in the intervening 16 years. It's one thing if we're having this conversation in 2004, but at the point where the decision is almost old enough to drive a car, it strikes me as silly to continue to put a significant amount of weight on it. To me, Belichick was probably* more important through the first three Super Bowl runs, but Brady has been the more key figure from 2007-on.

*One factor I don't know how to weigh in this discussion is Brady's contract. It was a huge help to those early teams that Brady was making relative peanuts and letting them use cap elsewhere. I'm not sure how much to credit Brady for that, because a lot of it was just the circumstance of rookie contract, but there's no doubt he was incredibly value relative to his contract even before he put up MVP-type numbers (and we shouldn't sell short his early performances given the surrounding offensive talent or lack thereof). I'm similarly uncertain how to factor in Brady taking somewhat less than market other the last decade.
 
snowmanny

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It's basically Lennon/McCartney. Apart they are each still brilliant, but being paired with Yoko and Linda instead is going to give you more Let Em In moments and occasional stretches where nothing is accomplished.
 
Reverend

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This sounds like trying to figure out what you’d be like as a person if you hadn’t fallen in love and raised kids with another person.

People in relationships change one another. Sometimes. In good ones. (Bad ones too, but that’s another story...)
 
dcmissle

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Reverend said:
This sounds like trying to figure out what you’d be like as a person if you hadn’t fallen in love and raised kids with another person.

People in relationships change one another. Sometimes. In good ones. (Bad ones too, but that’s another story...)
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Lots of wisdom in this.

Go back to a point that SN made — the contract. But not the early contract. Tom’s practice of taking team friendly deals basically forever since that contract ran its course.

This has gotten him to a SB literally every other year. Does he do this for your average Joe HC/GM? Why would he do it if he is not seeing the results?

That’s just one example of the dynamic.

Pair him with another HC, pair Belichick with another QB — are either seeing 8 Super Bowls? (I dearly want someone to insist, yes).
 
Ralphwiggum

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dcmissle said:
Pair him with another HC, pair Belichick with another QB — are either seeing 8 Super Bowls? (I dearly want someone to insist, yes).
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Literally nobody is saying this, in this thread or anywhere else. The Barnwell article that started the discussion says the following:

It would be foolish to suggest that Belichick could have accomplished everything he did over the past 17 years without Brady, or vice versa.
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Nobody in this thread since has said otherwise.
 
normstalls

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https://247sports.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/Bolt/Patriots-Super-Bowl-Alex-Guerrero-and-Bill-Belichick-high-fived-after-ESPN-report-114467280

“Belichick has absolutely no problem with (Tom vs. Time)," Minihane relayed Wednesday on Kirk & Callahan, via WEEI.com "[Guerrero] said he gets along great with Belichick. He said when the (Seth) Wickersham story broke, he said they passed each other in the hallway and Belichick said, ‘Hey, we made news’ and they high-fived each other. He said Belichick was laughing about it. He has no issues at all (with Belichick) he said.”
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per Kirk Minihane (I live out of market so I don't know how good/reliable that guy is??)
 
dcmissle

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normstalls said:
https://247sports.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/Bolt/Patriots-Super-Bowl-Alex-Guerrero-and-Bill-Belichick-high-fived-after-ESPN-report-114467280

per Kirk Minihane (I live out of market so I don't know how good/reliable that guy is??)
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One can be reliable in a particular instance and the anti-Christ too. His behavior is generally deplorable, unless one is nostalgic for the running sewers that were many of our country's rivers a half century ago. And worse yet, he's a punk ... a toughie who runs home after you've planted your fist on his nose. There is a thread in the media section; check "pissants".
 
Smiling Joe Hesketh

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I'm sure they'll be touching on the Gronk situation.

Remember, first one to correctly time the "collapse of the Patriots dynasty" prediction gets to brag about it. Been going on since 2002, so I admire the dedication. One of these days someone will be right.

Keep fucking that chicken, ESPN.
 
BaseballJones

BaseballJones

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These guys have been together a long time. Walsh, Montana, and DeBartolo were together for a long time, but not as long as Brady, BB, and Kraft. Of COURSE there are going to be some points of friction, sometimes major friction. Nobody can work together that long and not have some issues to work through.

I'm sure there are some issues with Gronk too. And either it will get worked out or he will retire or they'll trade him or let him go. But the Patriots will move on. And someday all this winning will come to and end and one of these talking heads will say, "See, I was right!"

And when it ends, I'll be sad, but I'll look back on this unparalleled run of greatness never seen before in professional football, and it will be the measuring stick for every franchise for all time, and every subsequent "dynasty" will be compared to these Patriots. And it will be glorious.
 
BaseballJones

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Lots of chatter on WEEI the past few days about Giselle's comments about Brady wanting to go to work and feel appreciated. Dale Arnold thinks it has to do with Goodell and the ridiculous suspension and accusing Brady of cheating. Others argued that it has everything to do with the Belichick/Guerrero situation.

Which leads me to this: Isn't Belichick in a tough spot on that? From what the reports seem to indicate, Guerrero was having a greater and greater influence on the team, to the point where the official training staff was feeling contradicted and put out by Guerrero, who appeared to be overstepping his bounds. It's one thing to have access to the building and work on Brady. It's another to be telling other players that, no, they shouldn't be doing what the trainers say, but instead should be doing XYZ. That had to be creating a great deal of angst in the organization, especially for Belichick, who must have had the training staff come in and be like, WTF with this guy (Guerrero)?

So Belichick tries to split the baby. Accommodate Brady somehow but remove Guerrero's larger influence. Hence removing him from the Pats' facilities but allowing him to operate close by. But it sounds like, for understandable reasons (Brady loves AG and that's Brady's future career - TB12 with AG), that REALLY put Brady off. Was deemed offensive and even damaging to Brady and his future. So it creates a major conflict. Add to that Gronk wanting to work with AG and him hinting that the way BB dealt with AG really has put HIM (Gronk) off as well, that Gronk just wants to train in a way that he best feels is suited for himself, but that seems at odds with how the Pats want to handle things.

What's BB supposed to do? If AG won't keep to himself and the very few specific guys who come to him, if Brady and maybe even Gronk are evangelistic about AG and his methods (Brady sure is at least...dude wrote a book about it), and that's creating some division in the locker room and the organization, how can BB just allow that to happen? On the other hand, Brady and Gronk are the two most important players on the team and if AG's method is actually helping them, why wouldn't you do everything you can to make that work?

I'm just wondering what the feel of the board here is as to what BB is supposed to do about this. What would YOU do if you were Belichick? Seems like a no-win. Allow AG full access, which pleases Brady and Gronk, and it creates division in the organization. Don't allow AG full access, and it pisses Brady and Gronk - your two best players - off and gives them reason to want to leave.
 
joe dokes

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BaseballJones said:
Lots of chatter on WEEI the past few days about Giselle's comments about Brady wanting to go to work and feel appreciated. Dale Arnold thinks it has to do with Goodell and the ridiculous suspension and accusing Brady of cheating. Others argued that it has everything to do with the Belichick/Guerrero situation.

Which leads me to this: Isn't Belichick in a tough spot on that? From what the reports seem to indicate, Guerrero was having a greater and greater influence on the team, to the point where the official training staff was feeling contradicted and put out by Guerrero, who appeared to be overstepping his bounds. It's one thing to have access to the building and work on Brady. It's another to be telling other players that, no, they shouldn't be doing what the trainers say, but instead should be doing XYZ. That had to be creating a great deal of angst in the organization, especially for Belichick, who must have had the training staff come in and be like, WTF with this guy (Guerrero)?

So Belichick tries to split the baby. Accommodate Brady somehow but remove Guerrero's larger influence. Hence removing him from the Pats' facilities but allowing him to operate close by. But it sounds like, for understandable reasons (Brady loves AG and that's Brady's future career - TB12 with AG), that REALLY put Brady off. Was deemed offensive and even damaging to Brady and his future. So it creates a major conflict. Add to that Gronk wanting to work with AG and him hinting that the way BB dealt with AG really has put HIM (Gronk) off as well, that Gronk just wants to train in a way that he best feels is suited for himself, but that seems at odds with how the Pats want to handle things.

What's BB supposed to do? If AG won't keep to himself and the very few specific guys who come to him, if Brady and maybe even Gronk are evangelistic about AG and his methods (Brady sure is at least...dude wrote a book about it), and that's creating some division in the locker room and the organization, how can BB just allow that to happen? On the other hand, Brady and Gronk are the two most important players on the team and if AG's method is actually helping them, why wouldn't you do everything you can to make that work?

I'm just wondering what the feel of the board here is as to what BB is supposed to do about this. What would YOU do if you were Belichick? Seems like a no-win. Allow AG full access, which pleases Brady and Gronk, and it creates division in the organization. Don't allow AG full access, and it pisses Brady and Gronk - your two best players - off and gives them reason to want to leave.
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Neither Brady nor Gronk have shown themselves to be stupid, selfish, or immature when it comes to football.

"Alex is giving conflicting advice from the trainers. You guys can still see him as much as you want, it'll just have to be at his place not here."

Maybe BB explained it poorly. Or not at all, and AG was just disappeared one day. Regardless, if Brady and Gronkowski are anything beyond mildly annoyed at the new inconvenience, and they truly "want to leave" over it then fuck 'em.

OTOH--If they are simply sick and tired of spending their entire professional careers in what may be the most restrictive football environment in the NFL (albeit the most successful, too), then they should move on and I'd wish them well. Life, and NFL careers, are way too short to be miserable. If either thinks they can find "enough" success elsewhere, combined with more happiness (or whatever the missing ingredient is), then good for them. Both have been around for a really long time, as far as football players go. They've earned it.
 
Bowhemian

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I suspect that if it wasn’t for Brady, AG would have been gone a long time ago (with respect to treating players). I know it sounds obvious, since if it wasn’t for Brady, AG maybe would have never been here. But since he is here, and Brady is in a partnership with him, he is allowed to stick around, albeit not in an official team capacity. Take Brady out of the equation, and AG is history.

It is a tough spot for BB no question.
 
pappymojo

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Bowhemian said:
I suspect that if it wasn’t for Brady, AG would have been gone a long time ago (with respect to treating players). I know it sounds obvious, since if it wasn’t for Brady, AG maybe would have never been here. But since he is here, and Brady is in a partnership with him, he is allowed to stick around, albeit not in an official team capacity. Take Brady out of the equation, and AG is history.

It is a tough spot for BB no question.
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I thought someone on the team (McGinest?) had referred Brady to AG.
 
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