Here's a question -- if the Sox end up with a lefty-heavy rotation (EdRo, Miley, Owens) next year, does it still make sense to keep a LOOGY-type like Layne in the bullpen?
"This too shall pass" ---- righting the ship for 2016
- Thread starter In my lifetime
- Start date
AB in DC said:
I think you may still want to keep that guy - as not having a sufficient supply of lefties in the pen may tempt the manager to leave a tiring LH starter in against a RHB because he's thinking about the LHB in the on-deck circle.
Slightly off-topic, but relevant ...
I know people shit on the Red Sox rosy marketing approach all the time. And a lot of the time the shenanigans of Dr. Charles Steinberg are pretty hokey and manipulative.
But when you look at how the team has approached these last few months—playing the kids, rotating positions, making the likes of Sandoval and Hanley quietly enter the witness protection program—you have to ask:
Has there ever been a more exciting team trying to get out of the cellar?
Sure it's been buoyed by some amazing play: JBJ's streak and string of circus catches, the Ballad of Milton's Rich Hill, Papi's 500th dinger. Even the resurgence of Rick Porcello has been worth getting excited about.
But as I was looking at the pictures of the rookies being hazed I realized something:
That the whole organization, from the way they've handled Farrell's illness, to Dombrowski's hiring, to the dramatic "will-they-or-won't-they-hire-Mike-Hazen?" GM search has been firing on all cylinders in the excitement department. Hell, as bad as the team got reamed for the way they handled the Orsillo firing, his Farewell Tour on NESN has been nothing short of must-see-TV.
Somewhere, Larry Lucchino must be smiling at the masterful fusion of marketing and baseball ops he is leaving behind.
I know people shit on the Red Sox rosy marketing approach all the time. And a lot of the time the shenanigans of Dr. Charles Steinberg are pretty hokey and manipulative.
But when you look at how the team has approached these last few months—playing the kids, rotating positions, making the likes of Sandoval and Hanley quietly enter the witness protection program—you have to ask:
Has there ever been a more exciting team trying to get out of the cellar?
Sure it's been buoyed by some amazing play: JBJ's streak and string of circus catches, the Ballad of Milton's Rich Hill, Papi's 500th dinger. Even the resurgence of Rick Porcello has been worth getting excited about.
But as I was looking at the pictures of the rookies being hazed I realized something:
That the whole organization, from the way they've handled Farrell's illness, to Dombrowski's hiring, to the dramatic "will-they-or-won't-they-hire-Mike-Hazen?" GM search has been firing on all cylinders in the excitement department. Hell, as bad as the team got reamed for the way they handled the Orsillo firing, his Farewell Tour on NESN has been nothing short of must-see-TV.
Somewhere, Larry Lucchino must be smiling at the masterful fusion of marketing and baseball ops he is leaving behind.
AB in DC said:
We need to talk about Miley. He's young - will he improve? Does he belong in the pen if the starters are lefty-heavy?
Here's some of the Rotoworld recaps of his performances since July:
- Miley looked close to unhittable for the first six innings. In the seventh, the Marlins put their first two runners on base and scored a run. After Miley got two outs, he allowed a run-scoring double to Christian Yelich, which ended his night.
- Miley allowed a two-run home run to Brian McCann in the second inning and balked in a run in the fifth before the Yankees hit three doubles to bring in three runs in the sixth.
- Miley had a no-hitter going for six innings tonight before Kole Calhoun just missed a homer on the first pitch of the seventh, settling for a double off the center-field wall.
- The lone run came on Marwin Gonzalez's first-inning homer. It was a second straight fine outing for Miley, though he really does need to cut down on the walks.
- Miley spotted the White Sox a five-run lead but managed to keep them off the board until giving up two more runs in the sixth.
- Miley's strong start comes on the heels of a seven-run debacle versus the White Sox. Against the Rays on Sunday, he bounced back nicely and scattered five hits while striking out four and walking one over 6 2/3 innings.
- All five runs scored in Miley's last two innings on the mound, as he allowed two runs in the fifth inning and three more in the sixth.
- Wade Miley delivered one of his finest starts of the season on Saturday, allowing just two runs on four hits over seven strong innings.
- Wade Miley pitched 7 1/3 innings of one-run ball to defeat the Royals on Thursday.
- Miley did his best to limit the damage through six innings, yielding just two runs despite a number of baserunners, but the White Sox pushed across three more runs in the seventh.
- Miley held the Mets to one run over five innings, but faltered in the sixth, allowing a two-run double to Juan Uribe and an RBI single to Anthony Recker.
- Miley scattered five hits and two earned runs over his nine tremendous frames. He walked none and struck out eight.
- Wade Miley logged a quality start in a no-decision against the Rays on Friday, allowing three runs on seven hits over seven strong frames.
- Wade Miley limited the Blue Jays to two earned runs over 6 2/3 innings
- Wade Miley pitched five innings and allowed four runs Wednesday against the Yankees. It seems like par for the course from Miley this year.
That's: - - + + - + - + + - - + + + -
15 Starts, 8 plus ones and 7 shitty ones, with most of the runs in the shitty ones scored after the 2nd time through the order. Either a classic number 5 starter or a guy who doesn't do well several times through. It could be pitch selection, fatigue, or ability.
Enough to drive you nuts? What do the Sox do with this guy next year?
geoduck no quahog said:
I don't know, I think that's basically just what an ok starter looks like. For his career he's basically been around a league averagish starter, sometimes a little above, sometimes a little below, who can eat a bunch of innings. Weirdly enough, fWAR has him tied for 13th best starter in the AL at 2.6 fWAR, just behind Felix Hernandez (2.8) and Jeff Samardzija (2.7).
I mean, no one gets excited about Wade Miley, and if you can replace him with someone better go for it, but he doesn't seem like a big problem.
alwyn96 said:
It's not that weird. He's underperformed his FIP by six tenths of a run, I suspect because of clustering. I read the accounts that Geoduck compiled, and began to suspect that he gives up his runs in clusters, so I took a few minutes and checked.
Below are the RA for each inning or partial inning Miley has pitched in 2015. Each line is a start.
0 0 0 0 0 2
2 0 5
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 6
0 0 1 0 2 0 0
1 1 0 0 0 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 2 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1 0 0 4
0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0
1 1 2 1
0 0 0 2 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 2 0 1
0 4 0 0 0
0 0 1 0 0 0 2
0 2 0 0 1 3
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0
5 0 0 0 0 2
1 0 0 1 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 2 3
0 0 2 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
0 1 0 1 0 0 3
0 1 0 0 0 3
0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
3 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 2 0
0 0 0 0 0 3 1
0 1 0 0 3
That's 152 scoreless innings, 23 1-run innings, 15 2-run innings, 7 3-run innings, 2 4-run innings, 2 5-run innings, and a lone 6-run inning. That adds up to more than his IP because it includes each inning he began. It's also worth noting that his runners have been stranded at the lowest rate of his career.
Without doing this for a bunch of pitchers, it's hard to say anything conclusive (does anyone have that data?), but I suspect that this is either a lot of scoreless innings for a pitcher of his ERA, or not a lot of 1-run innings for a pitcher of his FIP. And yet, weirdly, he hasn't allowed a 3- or 4-run HR this season, although he has allowed a bunch of 2B with runners on.
The 4-inning, 5-run performance June 11 against Baltimore is his only start without a scoreless inning — even including his two horrible starts in April. He had eleven starts where he was only scored on in a single frame.
Miley is solid but the Sox could certainly do better. They cannot lose out on Price in free agency.
Think about this. The Boston Red Sox could essentially win 80 games this year with Hanley and Panda as black holes and an awful rotation until Porcello and Kelly turned it around in August.
Price
Trade Target
Buchholz
Porcello
Kelly
Look at a team like San Diego and see if they are willing to unload Ross. Carrasco is another option. If Dombrowski wants to trade bad contracts then maybe Verlander for Panda comes into play, but I think the ship sailed on that one.
I think Edro could potentially start the year in AAA. But maybe he doesnt and Kelly gets moved to the pen. Who knows.
Think about this. The Boston Red Sox could essentially win 80 games this year with Hanley and Panda as black holes and an awful rotation until Porcello and Kelly turned it around in August.
Price
Trade Target
Buchholz
Porcello
Kelly
Look at a team like San Diego and see if they are willing to unload Ross. Carrasco is another option. If Dombrowski wants to trade bad contracts then maybe Verlander for Panda comes into play, but I think the ship sailed on that one.
I think Edro could potentially start the year in AAA. But maybe he doesnt and Kelly gets moved to the pen. Who knows.
This has to be the third or fourth post suggesting the EdRo goes back to AAA .. What are you people smoking? At this point Rodriquez is better than Porcello and Kelly and quite possibly Buchholz. He's exactly the kind of pitcher they are trying to aquire .. Young, cost controlled with tons of upside.Tyrone Biggums said:
It's not the best case scenario that he goes down but if you keep Buchholz and get two upper tier guys by trade or FA then it just becomes a question of who goes. Kelly had a dominant stretch and could also be sent to the pen hence leaving room for Edro. Porcello makes 20 million so you know he isn't getting moved anytime soon either.BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
So you want to use an inferior SP because he makes more money?Tyrone Biggums said:
I can see one SP coming in but not two. When you have guys like EdRo and Owens and Johnson at or near The Show you don't want to clutter up the rotation with more Porcellos.
I know folks are dreaming about the likes of Sonny Grey but that's a pipe dream IMO. So you go all in on Price. He just costs money - not even a draft pick.
So ..
Price
Buchholz
EdRo
Porcello
And one of Miley, Kelly, Owens, Johnson, Wright (in no particular order)
Hell maybe even Rich Hill.
My personal preference would be for Owens in the 5th spot. Regardless they have a ton of depth.
What do you do with the one of Kelly or Miley who doesn't make the rotation? The Red Sox are big on controlling as many quality assets as they can. If they can land Price or Cueto to head up the rotation, the approach that keeps as many major league quality pitchers on hand as possible is Price/Cueto, Buchholz, Porcello, Kelly, Miley with Eduardo and Owens in AAA as your first "break glass in case of emergency" starters who you will likely need when Clay goes down. Johnson, Wright and probably Workman sit behind those two.
Both Rodriguez and Owens have things they can be working on, despite showing some really exciting potential this year. Unless you can find a good deal for one of Kelly, Porcello, Buchholz or Miley the best approach for a long season is probably to keep the optionable kids in Pawtucket to extend their depth as much as possible... because they will need depth if they want to contend.
Neither Kelly nor Miley are good candidates for the bullpen, and none of Porcello, Buchholz nor Kelly are likely to have enough trade value to be worth moving. Miley is most valuable as an innings eater at the back of the rotation. And this is all assuming neither Owens nor Rodriguez are used in a trade. I'd guess Owens is more likely to go, but neither would shock me.
Both Rodriguez and Owens have things they can be working on, despite showing some really exciting potential this year. Unless you can find a good deal for one of Kelly, Porcello, Buchholz or Miley the best approach for a long season is probably to keep the optionable kids in Pawtucket to extend their depth as much as possible... because they will need depth if they want to contend.
Neither Kelly nor Miley are good candidates for the bullpen, and none of Porcello, Buchholz nor Kelly are likely to have enough trade value to be worth moving. Miley is most valuable as an innings eater at the back of the rotation. And this is all assuming neither Owens nor Rodriguez are used in a trade. I'd guess Owens is more likely to go, but neither would shock me.
With all the good SP candidates already on the roster, I'm honestly starting to wonder if the Sox should be signing a big-name starting pitcher in the first place. Am I alone?
I'll be surprised if DD doesn't try to do something dramatic this off season. And he seems to like aces. I think he's going to try to get a #1.AB in DC said:
All three of Owens, Miley and Kelly have positive trade value, so I imagine if they add an ace via trade, one or more of those three are getting shipped out as part of the deal or separately.
The only thing I can't imagine is Eduardo Rodriguez starting the year in Pawtucket.
The only thing I can't imagine is Eduardo Rodriguez starting the year in Pawtucket.
Snodgrass'Muff said:
IP H R ER BB K WHIP ERA
2015 vs. AL 109.0 121 57 55 25 77 1.34 4.54
The owner of this stat line is not someone to head up a rotation. I hope the chase for an ace does not lead to Johnny Cueto - that would feel to me like a Pablo/Hanley signing all over again.
Edited for formatting
In terms of bullpen, how about trading for Sergio Romo? 32 years old, he's setting up for San Fran, he does have one year left at 7 or 8 mil..Here are his numbers
55 IP
3.09 ERA
1.95 FIP
HR / 9 is 0.49
BB / 9 is 1.63
K / 9 is 11.22
Not sure what San Fran would be looking for in exchange but maybe they're looking to spend that 7 or 8 mil somewhere else.
55 IP
3.09 ERA
1.95 FIP
HR / 9 is 0.49
BB / 9 is 1.63
K / 9 is 11.22
Not sure what San Fran would be looking for in exchange but maybe they're looking to spend that 7 or 8 mil somewhere else.
Heating up in the bullpen said:
Or you could look a little closer. Since joining the Royals he's had three clusters of games. His first four starts he allowed 6 ER in 30 IP for a 1.80 ERA. Then he had a rough five game stretch, right around the time there were whispers of his elbow bothering him. 28 ER in just 26.1 IP for a 9.57 ERA. Since then he's had 3 starts allowing 8 ER in 20 IP for a 3.60 ERA. If he had a little bit of elbow soreness it would certainly explain that clump of shitty games. That he has been very good in the 7 games around that sample is an encouraging sign, so if he passes a physical, he absolutely could be a front of the rotation starter. His peripherals on the season are in line with his career with the Reds.
I'd prefer Price, as I'm sure most would, but Cueto at the front of the rotation would still make this a much better team. It all hinges on the medicals.
This is what I hope other teams see, too. Because that will drive Cueto's price and years way, way down.Heating up in the bullpen said:
In 3 years' time the de facto ace will more likely be Owens or EdRo anyway, assuming neither gets traded. Facing CC last night reminded me how much it stinks paying big bucks and long years for the back nine of a once-good pitcher. Any decent lineup would have roasted him alive.
Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
But is this a good thing? Fangraphs rates the Sox starters 6th in the AL this year despite:
- constantly being left in games too long because the bullpen was so bad
- three months without Buccholz
- two months without EdRo
- three months of Rick Porcello apparently experimenting with a new pitch rather than sticking with his strength
- two months of inexperienced catchers attempting to call a game (which probably contributed to Porcello's issues at the very least)
- two months of Justin Masterson
- Joe Kelly not figuring out how to pitch until the second half
With all of these issues seemingly fixed going into 2016 (health permitting), plus continued growth from Henry Owens and maybe Brian Johnson, maybe this really isn't an area to devote a lot more resources. I don't know.
AB in DC said:
Ben Cherington, is that you?
Seriously, that was the rationale with how he built the rotation last winter, particularly knowing they had the young guys up and coming. He may yet be proven to be correct, but the results this season with the team cratering in May/June/July is going to overshadow that. Much the same way the old closer-by-committee approach was good on paper (and in the hands of a capable manager) but the results/circumstances forced them to abandon it permanently.
Dombrowski doesn't have to go out and get a headline-making ace. The rotation they have now has depth and great potential. But I fear they're going to be swayed by PR more than practicality in this instance and go after a Price/Cueto type. It can't really hurt (other than financially) which is why I don't see any reason to object to the idea even if I find it unnecessary.
Well not quite. But if you are paying a 26-27 year old pitcher 20 million to start and he showed real signs of turning it around then he takes precedent over the young gun that just got you 10 wins and had spurts of elite pitching. Edro could still use some refining whether it's in Pawtucket or not, point is that he's nowhere near a finished product. Personally I would like him in the majors. The point I was making before was a prediction. I believe him Kelly and Owens will be fighting for the final spot in the rotation since DD will sign one top arm and probably trade for another.BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Boston has a lot of depth that could be used to bring back a really solid #2. It's that ace that is alluding the Sox.
Righting the ship might include some additional classroom time:
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/10/01/yankees-silence-red-sox-clinch-wild-card-berth/HEp6SB0VlF7vp6r1gW2eBK/story.html?p1=Article_Recommended_ArticleText
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/10/01/yankees-silence-red-sox-clinch-wild-card-berth/HEp6SB0VlF7vp6r1gW2eBK/story.html?p1=Article_Recommended_ArticleText
joe dokes said:
Yeah, well, it's pretty hard to have confidence that your team can "break the game open" if you're a hitter looking at last night's lineup card.
Bogaerts intentional walk was one instance for sure, but Rutledge bunting and playing for small ball runs is probably also attributable to Lovullo giving Papi and Pedroia the night off (even if resting both is warranted and necessary), shelving Sandoval and Ramirez, and thus having no veteran hitter anywhere 1-9 except the festering corpse of Allen Craig.
Buzzkill Pauley said:
The confidence would have been Rutledge's in himself (seemingly encouraged, generally, anyway, by Lovullo). Ahead 2-1 in the count to a lefty on his last legs, with 2 on and none out, and the team's best hitter up next. (would they have walked Betts to get to JBJ if the sac had been successful?)
That's what I meant by "classroom". "Although I appreciate the selflessnesss, there are times when you shouldn't bunt on your own....."
This is the fourth time I can remember a player bunting and Lovullo saying after the game he didn't want them to. The current team philosophy apparently is "don't bunt, unless you really really think it's a good idea, but even then I will throw you under the bus if it doesn't work."joe dokes said:
Tyrone Biggums said:
If you have controlled assets that are blocking Rodriguez from the starting 5, you need to figure out how to make room for him. I can see the upside argument for Porcello and Buchholz, but Rodriguez has the greatest chance of real improvement into a top shelf pitcher who give you 180+ innings. He needs to be in there, and I don't see him getting better by pitching in Pawtucket. There is an argument in favor of all of the starters the Sox have, I just thing Rodriguez has a much more compelling one than anyone else's.
Not everyone is going to be healthy. Not everyone of Porcello/Miley/Kelly/Buchholz have truly figured it out. Not all of Rodriguez, Owens, and Johnson are going to succeed at the ML level.AB in DC said:
We've seen a nice finish to the season from the SPs but they're still short a real front of the rotation champion to take the ball every 5th day and act as the stopper. With the current wild card rules that guy is more important than ever.
The best usage of starting pitching depth would, to me, be something like this:
Sign a #1
Buchholz
Rodriguez
Porcello
Miley/Kelly with the other being traded.
Owens and Johnson are in AAA, so you basically have the Buchholz injury replacement plus a 6th man already lined up. I would also put Barnes in AAA as a starter as he still has options and didn't really take to relief work. If he figures out his secondary pitches he'd be a worthwhile back of the rotation guy.
After 2016 re-assess Buchholz and consider moving the remainder of Miley/Kelly to make room for Owens/Johnson if Buchholz is still worth having.
That of course works in a financial vacuum. If Buchholz' $13M needs to be moved to facilitate an ace coming on-board while still addressing the bullpen and getting a worthwhile 4th OF then your problem is answered right there.
Yeah the idea that Rodriguez is back in AAA next year is lolbad.
I will chime in again on the "ace" issue and say that between the perceived upside of the existing staff and the prohibitive cost of a FA ace, I think it's more likely we add a young SP via trade. Ross, Carrasco or similar. Depends on how the market plays out, but if I had to fling a dart at the dartboard right this minute I'd say a package of Owens+ for a young MLB starter, bolster the bullpen a bit through mid tier FAs or trades, and maybe grab a LHH 4th OF. Done. Let's roll.
I will chime in again on the "ace" issue and say that between the perceived upside of the existing staff and the prohibitive cost of a FA ace, I think it's more likely we add a young SP via trade. Ross, Carrasco or similar. Depends on how the market plays out, but if I had to fling a dart at the dartboard right this minute I'd say a package of Owens+ for a young MLB starter, bolster the bullpen a bit through mid tier FAs or trades, and maybe grab a LHH 4th OF. Done. Let's roll.
After the last few years, haven't we learned that the 5 regular starters are really the starting 6 or 7. The constant injuries throughout baseball to pitchers really means each team must go into a season with 6 or 7 capable pitchers. I agree the RS will make a splash for an top of the rotation starter. However, even with that there is room for ERod.
Free agent #1 (?Price, etc)
Buccholz
ERod
Porcello
Miley
Kelly or Owens
Johnson (shoulder) - tough to expect too much at this point
Wright - long relief
So to me that is 7 starters, but with enough question marks that if I am GM I am not comfortable going into the season with less than that. Question marks include Buccholz health, ERod and Owens development/youth, Kelly's turnaround, etc. I just don't think going into the season with 7 capable major league average or better starters is a problem, nor an area where it seems that all 7 of those pitchers will be healthy and/or effective for the entire year. So I just don't see a desperate need to trade any of them. Sure if the RS get a great return that fits the team well (or to dump a bad contract and fill the void created-1B/3B), one could be moved. But that is a starting staff that any team shy of the Nationals would be happy to go into next season. After adding 1 top of the rotation guy, the RS still have work to do specifically in the bullpen and making sure before the season that HRam masters 1B. The other issues to me seem like game theory, ie, we have 2-3 CFs so let's maximize the value of each by trading one. As we have seen the second half of this year and when Victorino was healthy that it is nice to have 2 centerfielder type outfielders.
Free agent #1 (?Price, etc)
Buccholz
ERod
Porcello
Miley
Kelly or Owens
Johnson (shoulder) - tough to expect too much at this point
Wright - long relief
So to me that is 7 starters, but with enough question marks that if I am GM I am not comfortable going into the season with less than that. Question marks include Buccholz health, ERod and Owens development/youth, Kelly's turnaround, etc. I just don't think going into the season with 7 capable major league average or better starters is a problem, nor an area where it seems that all 7 of those pitchers will be healthy and/or effective for the entire year. So I just don't see a desperate need to trade any of them. Sure if the RS get a great return that fits the team well (or to dump a bad contract and fill the void created-1B/3B), one could be moved. But that is a starting staff that any team shy of the Nationals would be happy to go into next season. After adding 1 top of the rotation guy, the RS still have work to do specifically in the bullpen and making sure before the season that HRam masters 1B. The other issues to me seem like game theory, ie, we have 2-3 CFs so let's maximize the value of each by trading one. As we have seen the second half of this year and when Victorino was healthy that it is nice to have 2 centerfielder type outfielders.
Rather than go after Price, who will at minimum require a Scherzer-like 7 year deal for $200M (with far less deferred money, I bet), I think the Sox should cash in some of their mL and cost-controlled chips to get a much cheaper and younger ace than Price. People keep calling Gray a "pipedream" but I don't see why. Beane's always been aggressive, and dealing Gray would be exactly like dealing Donaldson. You just have to offer him the right package. We have a surplus of OF prospects (Margot), good young lefty SP prospects on the cusp (Owens or Johnson), reasonably priced/cost-controlled young vets (Miley, Kelly), and a plethora of prospect lottery tickets. And if not Gray, then maybe Sale. Or they trade hitting for Mets' pitching.
Exactly like dealing Donaldson... except that Donaldson was actively butting heads with Beane. Gray and Sale are pipedreams just like Stanton was always a pipedream.
They can be had but not for a reasonable price.
They can be had but not for a reasonable price.
But the industry expectation is Boston will get an ace, and many executives believe the Red Sox will aggressively pursue David Price — perhaps because Dombrowski traded for Price in Detroit. To do this, Boston’s ownership would have to alter its philosophy not to give lavish long-term deals that take pitchers deep into their 30s.
“An ace is hard to find, but would look nice in our rotation,” Dombrowski said. “We can’t be presumptuous that we can get one.”
http://nypost.com/2015/10/03/is-red-soxs-sudden-rise-for-real-3-questions-before-the-stamp/
“An ace is hard to find, but would look nice in our rotation,” Dombrowski said. “We can’t be presumptuous that we can get one.”
http://nypost.com/2015/10/03/is-red-soxs-sudden-rise-for-real-3-questions-before-the-stamp/
Trading for a cost-controlled pitcher makes sense, but Price is significantly better than Gray and better than any other "cost-controlled" guy as well except Sale. Gray's numbers are buoyed by his home park.Minneapolis Millers said:
Over the last two years since Gray became a FT starter Price is 7th in MLB in FIP and leads the majors in IP. He obviously has a long history of putting up a ton of very-high quality innings. Injury can happen to anyone but he's as good a bet as any over-30 pitcher to maintain his performance.
Gray is 13th in ERA over the past two years, right near Price, but has a much higher FIP - 34th in the majors. He has walked 2.8 / 9 IP, which isn't great, and only Ks 7.4 / 9. Compare that to 1.6 BB and 9.5 K/9 for Price.
Gray could get hurt too -- he has thrown 200+ IP each of the last two years with no ill effects but his slight frame would worry me if I were investing major resources to acquire him. Price on the other hand is big and tall and looks like he was made to pitch (the same reason I wasn't particularly concerned about Lester's performance falling off a cliff).
Sonny Gray is not walking through that door, folks. No matter how much wishing and hoping you might do. He's a wishcast in a pipedream in a fantasy world...at least for the next 2-3 years.
I'd prefer a pitcher who was on the other side of the ERA / FIP split.
By which I mean, Carlos Carrasco. I have no idea what the Tribe is planning to do this offseason but he seems more gettable and better than Gray, although not as young.
By which I mean, Carlos Carrasco. I have no idea what the Tribe is planning to do this offseason but he seems more gettable and better than Gray, although not as young.
Carrasco strikes me as the kind of pitcher that, if the other team is willing to trade him, you shouldn't bite, because it means they have reason to believe the other shoe is about to drop.
I mean, that contract is insanely team-friendly for the kind of pitcher we saw this year. It's three years for the price of one, plus two very modestly priced option years, carrying him through age 33. If you own that contract, and you think his 2015 performance level is even somewhat sustainable, you don't part with him for anything less than a king's ransom.
I mean, that contract is insanely team-friendly for the kind of pitcher we saw this year. It's three years for the price of one, plus two very modestly priced option years, carrying him through age 33. If you own that contract, and you think his 2015 performance level is even somewhat sustainable, you don't part with him for anything less than a king's ransom.
As much as I'd like to have David Price (or another FA Ace) walk through that door, that may be as big a pipe dream as Gray/Sale.
DD probably had the inside track in getting Scherzer last season only to let him sign with the Nats. He may be more adverse to handing out long term contracts to over 30 yr old pitchers after experiencing Verlander's rapid decline the last 2 seasons.
Add in Henry holding firm on 'over 30' Lester and getting burned by spending over $250MM last off season, I'd expect them to be a little craftier this off-season.
The bullpen is by far the weakest part of this team. Chasing Chapman in a trade (Miley + Margot could be enough) and adding Darren O'Day via free agency would get immediate results while retaining payroll flexibility.
DD probably had the inside track in getting Scherzer last season only to let him sign with the Nats. He may be more adverse to handing out long term contracts to over 30 yr old pitchers after experiencing Verlander's rapid decline the last 2 seasons.
Add in Henry holding firm on 'over 30' Lester and getting burned by spending over $250MM last off season, I'd expect them to be a little craftier this off-season.
The bullpen is by far the weakest part of this team. Chasing Chapman in a trade (Miley + Margot could be enough) and adding Darren O'Day via free agency would get immediate results while retaining payroll flexibility.
Buzzkill Pauley said:
There's still time for Cueto to have a impressive playoff run, which would probably go on to negate most of the open market concern his small AL sample might have otherwise generated. Regardless, I do ultimately see him as the most realistic target for us atm as far as higher end options go though.
Agree with some of the others that this Edro starting the year in AAA talk is pure silliness. The fact it even needs to be brought up as an option just serves to highlight how unlikely some of these better case narratives really are.
Which speaking of best case scenarios, I feel a lot better now about a reality where we only add 1 starting pitcher to the rotation this winter then I did 2 months ago.
Four players I would look to trade away if I were the Sox GM (yeah, dont reply saying "thank God you are not"):
Hanley
Sandoval
Rusney Castillo
Owens
Dombrowski would be lucky to get rid of two of Hanley/Sandoval/Castillo.
Hanley
Sandoval
Rusney Castillo
Owens
Dombrowski would be lucky to get rid of two of Hanley/Sandoval/Castillo.
I bet Dombrowski would have no trouble finding a taker for Castillo's deal. "Monster," at least in the way you are implying, is not an apt description of his contract.mfried said:
Thought I heard somewhere that Dombrowski was/is a Castillo fan, based on when he was with Detroit and Castillo was becoming available.
Castillo had a really rough last month of the season, the tune of .194/.236/.252
In August we were all lauding the young OFer's, because Mookie was Mookie, and Bradley and Castillo were pounding the ball.
In September Bradley still drew enough walks to have an OPS north of .725, but Castillo didn't and his defense isn't otherworldly. In August everyone said "He's finally knocked all the rust off." What happened in September? I'm hoping just a slump, but it'll be interesting to see what they do this offseason--if there's any statement to the effect that "these 3 are the 2016 OF" or if they are looking around.
In August we were all lauding the young OFer's, because Mookie was Mookie, and Bradley and Castillo were pounding the ball.
In September Bradley still drew enough walks to have an OPS north of .725, but Castillo didn't and his defense isn't otherworldly. In August everyone said "He's finally knocked all the rust off." What happened in September? I'm hoping just a slump, but it'll be interesting to see what they do this offseason--if there's any statement to the effect that "these 3 are the 2016 OF" or if they are looking around.
Red(s)HawksFan said:
5 years/$56M taking him from his from age 28 through age 32 seasons isn't a "monster" deal but is it a tradeable one either?
To date, he's a plus defensive CF (if you're willing to believe that the routine drops are behind him), with above-average range and with a hose, good for an 83 wRC+ over 329 PA and without baserunning value. How many clubs...
1) Need a CF?
1) Can afford to spend $11M on a defensive outfielder?
2) Do not have internal options that make more sense than an $11M outlay?
Is it a bad deal in an academic sense? Not really, paying $11M for a 1-win player is the kind of mild overpay you can tolerate when you're a big-market team. But I don't see anyone trading much for Castillo. OTOH the Mariners are the closest thing to a fit, an older team that are willing spend money, and have a big ballpark. What do you think Seattle would give up for Castillo?
mfried said:
The only thing hefty about Castillo's deal is its length. The AAV is so modest that he'd have to be quite bad not to earn it as a full-time OF, and he could conceivably earn it with a strong year as a 4th OF. If he's a league-average player, he's a bargain.
I don't dispute that Price is both an excellent pitcher and a better-than-average bet to age well, relatively speaking. Maybe the Sox like him a lot more than Lester and are therefore willing to go much further to sign him than they were willing to go with Lester just last year. Maybe they no longer fear loooong contracts for over age 30 SPs. Maybe they don't care about blowing past the luxury tax. Maybe Price and Ortiz really like one another and there wouldn't be any lingering bad blood there.
It's not my money, and I'd love to have Price fronting the rotation next season. I'm just not expecting it, for some of the reasons above.
But that's also in part because of the team's trade resources. You can never have too many good prospects, but you can run into roster limitations. I think the Sox are uniquely positioned to deal high quality organizational depth to acquire young, not-yet-expensive front-line talent. Maybe it's not Gray (even though Beane has dealt nearly every top SP he's had over the past decade, some with multiple years of control left). Or Sale. But just as we can speculate about who might take Hanley's or Pablo's or Castillo's contract, it seems worthwhile to consider which young pitchers could be obtainable.
It's not my money, and I'd love to have Price fronting the rotation next season. I'm just not expecting it, for some of the reasons above.
But that's also in part because of the team's trade resources. You can never have too many good prospects, but you can run into roster limitations. I think the Sox are uniquely positioned to deal high quality organizational depth to acquire young, not-yet-expensive front-line talent. Maybe it's not Gray (even though Beane has dealt nearly every top SP he's had over the past decade, some with multiple years of control left). Or Sale. But just as we can speculate about who might take Hanley's or Pablo's or Castillo's contract, it seems worthwhile to consider which young pitchers could be obtainable.