There's Only One October 2024 NBA Gamethread

Imbricus

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Old friend Marcus Smart currently 0-11 from the field including 0-8 from three. I don’t miss Marcus Smart.
It may seem like borderline heresy, but I agree with this. His last year, it was clear to everyone here he had lost a step and was struggling to stay in front of quick guards. Watching him slowly bring up the ball could be maddening: they'd be six, eight seconds into the shot clock before he got into position to run the offense. Anytime he started the game by making a couple of threes, the heat checks invariably followed. For every dazzling pass he made, there would be some lazy, no-look attempt that would get picked off.

I appreciate the hustle he brought, and felt bad about the trade because he was a Celtic through and through and was clearly hurt by it, but can't really say I miss him. And, post trade, all the sportswriters talking about how the Celtics had lost the "heart and soul" of the team -- it was a bit much.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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InstaFace

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They have plenty of toughness without him. You need your guards to be able to put the ball in the basket in 2024. He is a liability out there and beginning to lose some foot speed/quickness. I’m very confident that his best days are behind him.
There's no doubt we sold high on him.

The only thing now is rooting for him to have some success because we love him and want him to be happy.

He's playing for $20.2M this year, $21.6M next year. After that, a vet min end-of-bench deal back here might beckon. He could still probably get a taxpayer MLE somewhere but that really depends how these next two seasons go for him.
 

InstaFace

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By 2026-2027 it is entirely possible that we'd prefer Jordan Walsh in that role.
They play different positions. Jordan Walsh is a 6'7" forward currently understudying for Sam Hauser.

We would probably bring in a Smart because we had traded Pritchard for tax reasons.
 

tims4wins

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They play different positions. Jordan Walsh is a 6'7" forward currently understudying for Sam Hauser.

We would probably bring in a Smart because we had traded Pritchard for tax reasons.
Are we talking about end of bench, or backup PG? Those are very different roles. PP is playing a lot. There is no world where I want Marcus playing 25 minutes for the Celtics.
 

TheRooster

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Are we talking about end of bench, or backup PG? Those are very different roles. PP is playing a lot. There is no world where I want Marcus playing 25 minutes for the Celtics.
Right, and Mr. "We already have a big three" is unlikely to enjoy getting spot minutes
 

PRabbit

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The only world I'd want Smart getting minutes on this squad is if Holiday was traded away for tax reasons. PP and White are starters in that scenario.
 

InstaFace

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Right, and Mr. "We already have a big three" is unlikely to enjoy getting spot minutes
I'm positing that he is accepting that his days as a starter in the league will be over by that point, he'll have gotten very small offers for backup roles, and a vet min deal in Boston to do that will be relatively appealing.

If and when we trade PP, we will have three choices to replace his role:

1) also trade Jrue (or Jrue instead of PP) and rebuild our entire guard rotation
2) hope one of our draft picks has come good at that position
3) veteran minimum market

If we don't do #1 and #2 hasn't happened, what's going to be out there behind Door #3? Getting Marcus in a slight discount to his market value may be a lot better than the alternatives. He has to beat out the likes of Lonnie Walker, this isn't a luxury shopping trip Brad will be on.

If you think Brad and Pags will prefer Door #1, I get it, it's a reasonable belief. But if they just can't quit Jrue - also a reasonable belief - there's definitely a world in which that happens. It requires Marcus to be healthy and to have had a graceful aging curve, neither of which are guarantees, so I'm not saying the odds of this happening are high. But I do think he's always going to be Brad's Guy and that means there's a chance.
 
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lovegtm

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If PP keeps playing well offensively, he's nearly untouchable at his salary number. You trade KP or Jrue well before that.
 

tbrown_01923

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If PP keeps playing well offensively, he's nearly untouchable at his salary number. You trade KP or Jrue well before that.
PP, at $7mm a year, they'd need to get #5 draft pick value (rookie deal) in a trade (starts a hair under 7mm). Which would never happen. If it's last year of the deal and need to break the band up (e.g injuries, not making playoffs), then sure trade him. But it looks like a beauty of a deal.
 

HomeRunBaker

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If PP keeps playing well offensively, he's nearly untouchable at his salary number. You trade KP or Jrue well before that.
Pritchard isn’t getting traded unless it’s that of a last resort. Moving a value contract who is a fan favorite has to be far down on the list of viable options down the road.

Porzingis, due to his health concerns, or Hauser with his easier role to fill, would seem to be far ahead in terms of trade possibilities. Jrue is like a mini-Horford of 5 years ago in that his game projects to age very well as he approaches 40 so I’d have to say KP or Hauser are the targets to move if necessary.
 
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Euclis20

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the moops

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Denver should have lost that game last night. Gave up a wiiiiiide open corner three to Finney Smith for the win with time expiring. He bricked it though
 

lovegtm

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Denver should have lost that game last night. Gave up a wiiiiiide open corner three to Finney Smith for the win with time expiring. He bricked it though
I'm not one to make too much of results themselves early season, but Denver looks like it might have a talent issue. It all depends on whether Playoff Murray is going to walk through that door again, I suppose.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I'm not one to make too much of results themselves early season, but Denver looks like it might have a talent issue. It all depends on whether Playoff Murray is going to walk through that door again, I suppose.
The Nuggets are approaching games as if they are still in the preseason. Their 1H numbers are terrible and I believe last night to begin the 4Q was the first time that they had a positive point differential with Jokic on the bench. However down the stretch of the last two nights games they executed by going through Jokic which is the out that they will always have providing he remains healthy. Yes, they lack talent.....they lacked it last year too, but the biggest noticeable difference is their lack of athleticism and explosiveness which is why they brought over Westbrook. He will be a key for them to perform as he has since moving to a bench role and he isn't giving them that yet. The Nuggets floor will always be high with Jokic especially with Murray in the lineup even if he's lost a step....but their ceiling is also capped without prime Murrray, Bruce Brown or KCP around any longer.
 

Kliq

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Philly gives Detroit it's first win. George and Embiid returning any day now...
 

HomeRunBaker

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some suggestions:
GG
Cam Thomas (25ppg potential)
TJD
Dyson Daniels
Podz
Nembhard
Duren
Grady Dick
Anthony Black
Jaquez Jr
Going to be pushing this back not enough hours, or focus, in the day. Btw, Dyson Daniels leads the league w 29 Deflections w Cason Wallace, another on my 10-player list, the only other player at 20+.
 

benhogan

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Going to be pushing this back not enough hours, or focus, in the day. Btw, Dyson Daniels leads the league w 29 Deflections w Cason Wallace, another on my 10-player list, the only other player at 20+.
Cason is strong, OKC has him guarding up.

The Thunder are becoming a problem
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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So another team taking on the mathematics of the NBA is CHI. From this article: How The Chicago Bulls Became Surprisingly Fun In 2024-25

Last season, they attempted midrange shots at the fourth-highest frequency and 3-pointers at the fifth-lowest rate (per Cleaning the Glass). Their 2022-23 numbers were even more archaic (29th in 3-point rate).
During the summer, the Bulls shed the venerable, yet midrange-happy DeMar DeRozan (career 29.6 percent 3-point shooter). This allowed more minutes for more accurate perimeter marksmen, such as Coby White (36.8 percent) and Ayo Dosunmu (36.4 percent). Patrick Williams (40.7 percent), Zach LaVine (38.3 percent), and Lonzo Ball (36.4 percent) have all also returned from injuries that caused them to miss most/all of last season. Chicago replaced classical backup center Andre Drummond (12.3 percent) with a true stretch five in Jalen Smith (34.2 percent) as well.*
*It also helps that the team’s starting center, Nikola Vucevic, has gone from hitting 29.4 percent of his threes in 2023-24 to 52.4 percent this season – a mark that will surely simmer down as the season progresses.
Now, the Bulls are 29th in midrange frequency and fifth in 3-pointers. Plus, since they can field good shooters, they are actually converting those attempts (seventh in 3-point percentage).

More at the link about CHI's improved pace and ball movement. Might have to start paying closer attention to this team.
 

HomeRunBaker

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So another team taking on the mathematics of the NBA is CHI. From this article: How The Chicago Bulls Became Surprisingly Fun In 2024-25

Last season, they attempted midrange shots at the fourth-highest frequency and 3-pointers at the fifth-lowest rate (per Cleaning the Glass). Their 2022-23 numbers were even more archaic (29th in 3-point rate).
During the summer, the Bulls shed the venerable, yet midrange-happy DeMar DeRozan (career 29.6 percent 3-point shooter). This allowed more minutes for more accurate perimeter marksmen, such as Coby White (36.8 percent) and Ayo Dosunmu (36.4 percent). Patrick Williams (40.7 percent), Zach LaVine (38.3 percent), and Lonzo Ball (36.4 percent) have all also returned from injuries that caused them to miss most/all of last season. Chicago replaced classical backup center Andre Drummond (12.3 percent) with a true stretch five in Jalen Smith (34.2 percent) as well.*
*It also helps that the team’s starting center, Nikola Vucevic, has gone from hitting 29.4 percent of his threes in 2023-24 to 52.4 percent this season – a mark that will surely simmer down as the season progresses.
Now, the Bulls are 29th in midrange frequency and fifth in 3-pointers. Plus, since they can field good shooters, they are actually converting those attempts (seventh in 3-point percentage).

More at the link about CHI's improved pace and ball movement. Might have to start paying closer attention to this team.
Nice find. I’ll share my Bulls preview from the preseason…


Chicago Bulls, Win Total 28.5 (Win Projection: 41)

The Bulls offense will look much different this year with DeRozan's iso game in Sacramento, the return of LaVine, and the limited offense/shot creation of Caruso being replaced by the elite passing and ball movement of Giddey and Lonzo Ball. The inclusion of these two PG's allow Coby White and LaVine to combine for one of the leagues best wing scoring duos. Patrick Williams is looking to make a leap in his age 23 season while hoping for a healthy campaign after playing 71, 17, 82 and 43 games in his first four seasons. Vucevic returns in the middle and should be a beneficiary of Giddey and Ball's return while upgrading the passing at the 2 with White there. Behind him is some shuffling of the deck with Drummond out and 23 yr old Jalen Smith in from the Pacers while giving them a potential long term replacement for the big Belgian.

Defensively this team has identity issues last season. DeRozan had lost a step on that end while Williams was on the shelf much of the year. Even with Caruso this team was not very switchable and with their slower pace they struggled getting stops in the halfcourt. That should change this season with the length and switchability of Giddey which allows him to defend 1-4, Williams every position in the frontcourt as well as LaVine's versatility from 1-4. When Ball is in the game he adds that dimension to the second unit along with Dosonmu in the backcourt. This is going to be one of the more fun teams to watch develop but make no mistake that Billy Donovan is going to be on the hot seat quickly if they do not come out of the gates hot. I thnk they do and will be one of the more surprising teams in the league.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Nice find. I’ll share my Bulls preview from the preseason…


Chicago Bulls, Win Total 28.5 (Win Projection: 41)

The Bulls offense will look much different this year with DeRozan's iso game in Sacramento, the return of LaVine, and the limited offense/shot creation of Caruso being replaced by the elite passing and ball movement of Giddey and Lonzo Ball. The inclusion of these two PG's allow Coby White and LaVine to combine for one of the leagues best wing scoring duos. Patrick Williams is looking to make a leap in his age 23 season while hoping for a healthy campaign after playing 71, 17, 82 and 43 games in his first four seasons. Vucevic returns in the middle and should be a beneficiary of Giddey and Ball's return while upgrading the passing at the 2 with White there. Behind him is some shuffling of the deck with Drummond out and 23 yr old Jalen Smith in from the Pacers while giving them a potential long term replacement for the big Belgian.

Defensively this team has identity issues last season. DeRozan had lost a step on that end while Williams was on the shelf much of the year. Even with Caruso this team was not very switchable and with their slower pace they struggled getting stops in the halfcourt. That should change this season with the length and switchability of Giddey which allows him to defend 1-4, Williams every position in the frontcourt as well as LaVine's versatility from 1-4. When Ball is in the game he adds that dimension to the second unit along with Dosonmu in the backcourt. This is going to be one of the more fun teams to watch develop but make no mistake that Billy Donovan is going to be on the hot seat quickly if they do not come out of the gates hot. I thnk they do and will be one of the more surprising teams in the league.
Spot on analysis! I hope you have some decent coin on the over.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Spot on analysis! I hope you have some decent coin on the over.
I actually didn’t play any Win Totals this year since they are around even money and I’d be flying up funds for 6 months. The only long term futures I have are….

Tatum MVP (+1800)
Knecht ROY (+1600)
Pritchard 6MOY (+2000)
Sixers to NOT make playoffs (+800)
 

lovegtm

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Are the Bucks....bad?

Those Giannis trade scenarios from the other thread are looking more intriguing now.
 

benhogan

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So another team taking on the mathematics of the NBA is CHI. From this article: How The Chicago Bulls Became Surprisingly Fun In 2024-25

Last season, they attempted midrange shots at the fourth-highest frequency and 3-pointers at the fifth-lowest rate (per Cleaning the Glass). Their 2022-23 numbers were even more archaic (29th in 3-point rate).
During the summer, the Bulls shed the venerable, yet midrange-happy DeMar DeRozan (career 29.6 percent 3-point shooter). This allowed more minutes for more accurate perimeter marksmen, such as Coby White (36.8 percent) and Ayo Dosunmu (36.4 percent). Patrick Williams (40.7 percent), Zach LaVine (38.3 percent), and Lonzo Ball (36.4 percent) have all also returned from injuries that caused them to miss most/all of last season. Chicago replaced classical backup center Andre Drummond (12.3 percent) with a true stretch five in Jalen Smith (34.2 percent) as well.*
*It also helps that the team’s starting center, Nikola Vucevic, has gone from hitting 29.4 percent of his threes in 2023-24 to 52.4 percent this season – a mark that will surely simmer down as the season progresses.
Now, the Bulls are 29th in midrange frequency and fifth in 3-pointers. Plus, since they can field good shooters, they are actually converting those attempts (seventh in 3-point percentage).

More at the link about CHI's improved pace and ball movement. Might have to start paying closer attention to this team.
Right up Donovan's alley. Billy was draining 3s at PC for Slick Rick
 

PedroKsBambino

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Maybe the trade scenario is “you get Giannis, but you have to take Doc and Griffin’s coaching deals too…”

It’s not impossible Doc quits if this gets really bad—he has an ego, he has made some real money, and he has a cushy TV job as an alternative. Not expecting him to walk away from money but a more realistic possibility than it often is.
 

Kliq

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Giannis 37 points on 17/22 shooting, 11 boards, 4 assists 1TO, but they lose by 23. Got nothing from the other 4 starters.
As a Celtics fan--I'm worried OKC cashes in its assets for Giannis this year.
 

DavidTai

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As a Celtics fan--I'm worried OKC cashes in its assets for Giannis this year.
I actually hope they do, because Giannis doesn't feel like the sort who'd play well in a system not centered around his specific skill-set (Lately, it feels he's just enacting the Charge of the Light Brigade over and over)
 

LA_33

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As a Celtics fan--I'm worried OKC cashes in its assets for Giannis this year.
Yeah. He'd obviously be good/dangerous somewhere like Miami (although the package they'd need to put together to get him, as detailed in trade mechanics discussion in the General NBA thread, would leave them VERY shallow, with lots of injury risk at the top), but OKC is the real fear for the rest of the NBA.

The salary matching would be a little complicated from a player/agent politics perspective; it would basically have to be built around Hartenstein, who just singed as a FA, and doesn't really fit in MIL, so the optics are pretty bad to move him in a trade just months into his new contract. But this is freaking Giannis, I think they'd be OK with some bad agent-PR.

The player return wouldn't be great for MIL, but OKC could send SO many picks they might still be able to outbid everyone else.
 

lovegtm

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As a Celtics fan--I'm worried OKC cashes in its assets for Giannis this year.
I guess that looks like Hartenstein + filler + tons of picks?

Makes a lot of sense, and OKC still has 1.5 years before the bills come due.
 

the moops

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I actually hope they do, because Giannis doesn't feel like the sort who'd play well in a system not centered around his specific skill-set (Lately, it feels he's just enacting the Charge of the Light Brigade over and over)
You definitely don't want the best team in the west to get a top 5 player to pair with the rest of that crew. A Chet, Giannis, Dort, JW, SGA starting lineup would be fucking bonkers and so ridiculously good
 

LA_33

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I actually hope they do, because Giannis doesn't feel like the sort who'd play well in a system not centered around his specific skill-set (Lately, it feels he's just enacting the Charge of the Light Brigade over and over)
I actually think he'd fit well there, they'd have a ton of spacing around him, pairing him with Chet and all of OKC's perimeter athletes on D is terrifying to opposing offenses (maybe not the ideal matchup for Jokic, but the mobility and rim protection would be outrageous).

Shai would need to let Giannis be the off-the-dribble initiator more often and serve as an outlet shooter more than he does now. But I think he's fine in a role like that, and he'd carve people up attacking rotating defenses as the second action.
 

Kliq

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It's amazing that some people still don't really think Giannis is that good--that he just dribbles in and tries to dunk the ball every time.