The Yoshida Conundrum

richgedman'sghost

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Perhaps the OP or a mod could change the thread title to something like Yoshida...On going discussion.
I was going to make the same suggestion. I clicked on this thread half expecting to read that Yoshida had gone back on the IL as a way to recover more fully from his injury. Maybe he could get more AB's in the minors because he doesn't look like the same hitter as he was before July of last year.
 

moondog80

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If this season is the “let’s see what these guys got, once and for all” campaign that Breslow has suggested it is, then I think they gotta ride with Yoshida for at least another month, maybe 2.
It has definitely been that, and I'm glad it has. But now things have shifted a bit. If the team continues to contend, Yoshida is going to have to hit better to still have his job by the end of July.

Can he be sent to Worcester? I'm not suggesting that's a consideration today. But is it even an option?

And yes, changing the title is a good idea. Sorry if there is another Yoshida thread out there that would have made more sense to bump, if that's the case I missed it.
 

Rovin Romine

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It has definitely been that, and I'm glad it has. But now things have shifted a bit. If the team continues to contend, Yoshida is going to have to hit better to still have his job by the end of July.

Can he be sent to Worcester? I'm not suggesting that's a consideration today. But is it even an option?
Unless there's something in his contract, he's an IFA with 1 year's service time - he has 3 options left and is a FA in 2028.
 

moondog80

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Unless there's something in his contract, he's an IFA with 1 year's service time - he has 3 options left and is a FA in 2028.
Got it, thx. Hopefully it won't come to that, but good to know it's an option. The more I think about it, it's pretty significant. It means they could get him out of the lineup for this year without completely giving up on the 56 mil his owed 2025-2028.
 
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Harry Hooper

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Is this a Robert Ludlum novel, given the title of the thread?


I wonder if Yoshida has been anything close to healthy from ST on this year.
 

Daniel_Son

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Is there a site that compiles advanced hitting statistics for NPB? I'm wondering if this is just a case of a non-MLB player who can't adjust to MLB-level pitching, or if there's something else in his approach that's changed. Is it just as simple as he's striking out too much?
 

moondog80

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Is there a site that compiles advanced hitting statistics for NPB? I'm wondering if this is just a case of a non-MLB player who can't adjust to MLB-level pitching, or if there's something else in his approach that's changed. Is it just as simple as he's striking out too much?
His K rate is really good, elite even. It's the weak contact he makes that is the issue.
 
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Fishy1

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Is there a site that compiles advanced hitting statistics for NPB? I'm wondering if this is just a case of a non-MLB player who can't adjust to MLB-level pitching, or if there's something else in his approach that's changed. Is it just as simple as he's striking out too much?
What? He's barely striking out over here. He's among the best at not striking out. Thats been repeatedly covered in this thread. His problem is he doesnt hit the ball hard, and he hits it on the ground.

His K rates arent far off what they were in Japan, around 10-15%. But his BB rates have cratered in the majors.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=yoshid002mas

We're talking 15% BB in Japan. Which has somehow turned into 6% over here. Brutal stuff.
 

The Filthy One

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What? He's barely striking out over here. He's among the best at not striking out. Thats been repeatedly covered in this thread. His problem is he doesnt hit the ball hard, and he hits it on the ground.

His K rates arent far off what they were in Japan, around 10-15%. But his BB rates have cratered in the majors.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=yoshid002mas

We're talking 15% BB in Japan. Which has somehow turned into 6% over here. Brutal stuff.
It's tough to walk when pitchers don't think you can do any damage in the zone. Until he starts hitting gap shots, he'll see a steady diet of strikes. His hard hit rate is down, as are his barrels and exit velocity. It could be that he's still hurt and shaking off rust, but he's got to show pitchers that they have to fear him more.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I imagine his BB rates have cratered primarily because big league pitchers realize he isn’t likely to hurt them and they go right after him.

I would feel better if his K rates were crappy because then you’d at least see a path to improvement.
 

simplicio

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He started last year walking a lot, don't know if it was a change in approach or a book coming out of him or what.
 

8slim

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His K rate is really good, elite even. It's the weak contact he makes that is the issue.
Was his contact and hard hits % poor from April through July of last year?

He had 22 doubles and 12 homers at the end of July. Roughly a .480 SLG. Not elite, but far from terrible. That’s what we’re getting from Duran and Abreu this season.

I’m not a big consumer of advanced stats so it’s possible that SLG was an illusion.
 

Daniel_Son

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His K rate is really good, elite even. It's the weak contact he makes that is the issue.
What? He's barely striking out over here. He's among the best at not striking out. Thats been repeatedly covered in this thread. His problem is he doesnt hit the ball hard, and he hits it on the ground.

His K rates arent far off what they were in Japan, around 10-15%. But his BB rates have cratered in the majors.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=yoshid002mas

We're talking 15% BB in Japan. Which has somehow turned into 6% over here. Brutal stuff.
Sorry - should have clarified. Is the issue that he's striking out too much compared to what he was doing in the NPB? Because those numbers have increased, too - he's striking out at a 13.7% rate over here compared to 9.4% in Japan (still great, as you've noted, but it has shifted in the wrong direction). Coupled with the dramatic decrease in BB%, he's walking far less, striking out more, and not hitting it well when he does make contact.

I guess what I'm wondering is - is it even possible for him to recreate the success he had in the NPB over here? Is his approach different than it was in the NPB? Or is this a guy who just couldn't make the jump?
 

Van Everyman

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Was his contact and hard hits % poor from April through July of last year?

He had 22 doubles and 12 homers at the end of July. Roughly a .480 SLG. Not elite, but far from terrible. That’s what we’re getting from Duran and Abreu this season.

I’m not a big consumer of advanced stats so it’s possible that SLG was an illusion.
Or maybe, his thumb has been hurt for a long time. That would certainly help explain the weak contact.
 

8slim

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Or maybe, his thumb has been hurt for a long time. That would certainly help explain the weak contact.
Definitely a possibility. His results have just been sooooo poor since late summer 2023 compared to his first 4 months.

Maybe pitchers figured him out. That certainly happens. But it’s confounding none the less. And I really like the guy so I’m rooting for him to turn it around n
 

moondog80

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Was his contact and hard hits % poor from April through July of last year?

He had 22 doubles and 12 homers at the end of July. Roughly a .480 SLG. Not elite, but far from terrible. That’s what we’re getting from Duran and Abreu this season.

I’m not a big consumer of advanced stats so it’s possible that SLG was an illusion.
Sure. I'm not giving up on him. But if he continues to hit poorly, devoting a roster spot to a guy who, in the best of times is seen by the team as only a DH vs RHP, while they are in a battle for the playoffs, is a very real issue that has to be dealt with. Especially when the guy has minor league options.
 

8slim

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Sure. I'm not giving up on him. But if he continues to hit poorly, devoting a roster spot to a guy who, in the best of times is seen by the team as only a DH vs RHP, while they are in a battle for the playoffs, is a very real issue that has to be dealt with. Especially when the guy has minor league options.
Totally agree. I suspect we’ll find out soon if this current run we’re on is a legit reflection of how we can compete in the 2nd half, or if it’s just a nice 2 week run.

It was all of two weeks ago that the team was squarely at .500 and several games out of the third WC.

It does seem like the last 2 WC spots are there for the taking, so I’d like to see the FO commit to trying. And Yoshida’s fate would seem to hang on that decision if he doesn’t improve soon.
 

moondog80

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It does seem like the last 2 WC spots are there for the taking, so I’d like to see the FO commit to trying. And Yoshida’s fate would seem to hang on that decision if he doesn’t improve soon.
Yep. Not contending would suck but it would bring the luxury of being free to give Yoshida (and Grissom arguably fits here as well) the rest of the year to figure it out. It helped Jarren Duran. But the equation has now changed, and these decisions have become more difficult. That's why Breslow gets the big $$, I suppose. He's in the lineup tonight, hopefully he goes 3 for 5 with two doubles and it's the start of a turnaround!
 

Cassvt2023

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It may make sense to put him back on the IL just to clear his head and give him a mental break. Then give him a real rehab assignment, not 2 games, to see if he can get straightened out against MiL pitching. If only Chase Meidroth was already on the 40 man. I'd be intrigued to see what a guy with his on base skills could do in the DH slot, hitting in the 6/7 slot over a couple week stretch.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It may make sense to put him back on the IL just to clear his head and give him a mental break. Then give him a real rehab assignment, not 2 games, to see if he can get straightened out against MiL pitching. If only Chase Meidroth was already on the 40 man. I'd be intrigued to see what a guy with his on base skills could do in the DH slot, hitting in the 6/7 slot over a couple week stretch.
I'll buy the rehab assignment might not have been long enough to work out the kinks or find his timing after the IL stint. By the same token though, he's had less than 40 PAs (37 to be exact) since returning to the club. That's hardly enough to determine anything. In fact, in his brief history with the team, he's been a slow starter overall and tends to find his way eventually.

First 38 PA this season: .242/.342/.303/.645 (this encompassed the entire first road trip of the season...SEA, OAK, LAA)
Next 51 PA: .298/.353/.447/.800 (first home game through his IL assignment)
Last 37 PA: .118/.189/.147/.336 (since returning from the IL)

First 45 PA last season: .216/.356/.324/.680 (at this point he got four days off to "reset")
Next 290 PA: .330/.386/.515/.901 (cut it off at the ASB just to pick a spot...he didn't really start dipping until late July/early Aug)

So I think he needs to get a few more games at the very least. But he's been bad enough to suggest that perhaps he's not fully healthy. If he needs the IL again, it won't be a mental thing, it will probably be for his thumb/hand again.
 

Cassvt2023

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I'll buy the rehab assignment might not have been long enough to work out the kinks or find his timing after the IL stint. By the same token though, he's had less than 40 PAs (37 to be exact) since returning to the club. That's hardly enough to determine anything. In fact, in his brief history with the team, he's been a slow starter overall and tends to find his way eventually.

First 38 PA this season: .242/.342/.303/.645 (this encompassed the entire first road trip of the season...SEA, OAK, LAA)
Next 51 PA: .298/.353/.447/.800 (first home game through his IL assignment)
Last 37 PA: .118/.189/.147/.336 (since returning from the IL)

First 45 PA last season: .216/.356/.324/.680 (at this point he got four days off to "reset")
Next 290 PA: .330/.386/.515/.901 (cut it off at the ASB just to pick a spot...he didn't really start dipping until late July/early Aug)

So I think he needs to get a few more games at the very least. But he's been bad enough to suggest that perhaps he's not fully healthy. If he needs the IL again, it won't be a mental thing, it will probably be for his thumb/hand again.
 

Cassvt2023

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this is a super fair assessment. And 2 hits tonight before they pinch hit for him w/ a lefty in there. Maybe he’s turning the corner?
 

Cassvt2023

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Gausman on the mound for Jays tonight. Yoshida is 4-6 off him in career. Maybe this is the start of something after 2 hits last night?
 

nvalvo

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Gausman on the mound for Jays tonight. Yoshida is 4-6 off him in career. Maybe this is the start of something after 2 hits last night?
It’s interesting in that Gausman’s repertoire is akin to that of a typical Japanese pitcher, with his reliance on the four seam/splitter pairing.
 

sean1562

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Surprised to see this wasn’t bumped after that heroic home run against the Yankees the other day. In his last 15 games, he is hitting .321/.377/.482. If he is healthy and can maintain an OPS around ,775, with Casas coming back soon and Rafaela coming into his own, this offense could actually be really good
 

BaseballJones

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For his brief MLB career, now spanning 187 games and 763 plate appearances, his stats, if you pro-rate them for a 150 game season, come to:

73 r, 32 2b, 15 hr, 77 rbi, .283/.337/.430/.766, 107 ops+

I mean, that's an above average hitter. Not an all-star. Not an MVP candidate or anything like that. But a solid, above-average hitter.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Surprised to see this wasn’t bumped after that heroic home run against the Yankees the other day. In his last 15 games, he is hitting .321/.377/.482. If he is healthy and can maintain an OPS around ,775, with Casas coming back soon and Rafaela coming into his own, this offense could actually be really good
I just can’t imagine his BA staying anywhere close to .321! I don’t know how to isolate his BABiP during that same stretch but the batting average drops to a reasonable level and the OBP and SLG drop in a relative ratio and he’s likely around a .750 OPS. Still not anything close to an $18M DH.
But players always have streaks so I’ll take it and hope it lasts.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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For his brief MLB career, now spanning 187 games and 763 plate appearances, his stats, if you pro-rate them for a 150 game season, come to:

73 r, 32 2b, 15 hr, 77 rbi, .283/.337/.430/.766, 107 ops+

I mean, that's an above average hitter. Not an all-star. Not an MVP candidate or anything like that. But a solid, above-average hitter.
Playing DH, where in 2024 MLB is hitting .243/.321/.417 - I actually expected that to be higher. Wow.
 

bluefenderstrat

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I don’t see how he can be here long term. Likable player and I hope he has a solid MLB career, but the Red Sox will probably be paying half of his salary for him to play elsewhere after 2024. In the meantime I hope he rakes for the next 3 months.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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I just can’t imagine his BA staying anywhere close to .321! I don’t know how to isolate his BABiP during that same stretch but the batting average drops to a reasonable level and the OBP and SLG drop in a relative ratio and he’s likely around a .750 OPS. Still not anything close to an $18M DH.
But players always have streaks so I’ll take it and hope it lasts.
Looks like .372
 

Diamond Don Aase

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I just can’t imagine his BA staying anywhere close to .321! I don’t know how to isolate his BABiP during that same stretch but the batting average drops to a reasonable level and the OBP and SLG drop in a relative ratio and he’s likely around a .750 OPS. Still not anything close to an $18M DH.
But players always have streaks so I’ll take it and hope it lasts.
Yoshida’s BABIP over his last 15 games is .410. For comparison, Jarren Duran— a much faster runner that is not nicknamed Sgt. Pepper by opposing second basemen— has a BABIP of .239 over his last 15 games. 15 games of BABIP barely rises above complete randomness. Unless Pittsburgh changes their team name to the Pyrites, Yoshida’s unsubsidized contract remains untradeable. And as long as the Boston’s lineup frequently includes the likes of Romy Gonzalez, Rob Refsnyder, and Jamie Westbrook, it makes little sense for a competitive Red Sox team to subsidize Yoshida’s contract.
 

Mantush

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All ya’ll need to do is be supportive and keep visualizing Yoshida having great games. It worked last night.

In all seriousness though, he looks overpaid, which is a shame. He hasn’t quite lived up to the hype of the WBC, but he’s been a serviceable player when he’s healthy. Hopefully he can continue to make improvements to his contact quality — he had huge problems with it to start last year — and go on a nice tear. We could do much worse than him as the LHB side of a LF/DH combo… it could be worse, we could’ve resigned Andrew B.
 

Fishy1

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Yeah, we'll just have to keep the contract around for now, and for that reason, thank god he started hitting again.

I still think there's a 115-125 WRC+ guy in there, if he can just find a way back to the patience he had in spades in Japan. I look at his walk rate (6%!) and it just doesn't make sense to me. That's lower than pretty much all the regulars except Wong and Rafaela. I wouldn't even mind if he struck out more if it meant he took more marginal pitches.
 

moondog80

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Surprised to see this wasn’t bumped after that heroic home run against the Yankees the other day. In his last 15 games, he is hitting .321/.377/.482. If he is healthy and can maintain an OPS around ,775, with Casas coming back soon and Rafaela coming into his own, this offense could actually be really good
The power is the key. He's not going to be Aaron Judge, but .450 SLG Yoshida is a decent player.
 

chrisfont9

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I believe you can find your answer with this and this.
I'm old enough to remember pepper. Grounders to second, etc.

Hopefully the yankee HR gave him the boost of confidence to hit for power. I guess that's a thing, consciously turning on the power stroke? This is a VERY seasoned pro. MLB isn't that different from NPB. Yesterday's HR was big -- one is a blip, two is a trend. And in Fenway too. Stay tuned.
 

Sox Puppet

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Without looking at the spray charts, I already understood the reference, because it seems like Yoshida's default AB (when he's not going well) is a grounder rolled over to 2B. It feels almost as inevitable as a Dalbec strikeout. When he starts making solid contact to the opposite field, that's usually a sign that he's locked in.
 

doctorogres

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You could see him go through the same process as the beginning of last year. First a bunch of GB outs, then more singles and longer LD/FB outs, and now he's hitting for power again. I was literally mid-sentence telling my brother he was hitting deeper outs and might be about to break out during that Yankees AB.

I think his walk rate will go up if he can continue to hit for power.

Would be interested to look at his trends over the last 30 days. I'm not that great with the stats tools and can only seem to view monthly splits.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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He's really only an awkward fit if he's not productive against both lefties and righties. He didn't display much of a split last season. This year's more pronounced but it's not as though he's unplayable against lefties. If the last few weeks is real, that's a bat you don't mind having in the lineup every day.
 

moondog80

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He's really only an awkward fit if he's not productive against both lefties and righties. He didn't display much of a split last season. This year's more pronounced but it's not as though he's unplayable against lefties. If the last few weeks is real, that's a bat you don't mind having in the lineup every day.
I'm glad he's hitting better, but his apparent unplayable-ness in the field is always going to make for a weird fit unless he hits at a pretty high level. HIs .373 July BABIP is probably not sustainable.
 

RS2004foreever

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Not enough power. In June and July he has 116 at bats, but only 2 homers and 5 doubles.
Glad he is hitting better but I don't know how much he contributes.
 

shaggydog2000

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You could see him go through the same process as the beginning of last year. First a bunch of GB outs, then more singles and longer LD/FB outs, and now he's hitting for power again. I was literally mid-sentence telling my brother he was hitting deeper outs and might be about to break out during that Yankees AB.

I think his walk rate will go up if he can continue to hit for power.

Would be interested to look at his trends over the last 30 days. I'm not that great with the stats tools and can only seem to view monthly splits.
The big thing for me is that with the injuries there is just not a big enough sample size to say whether he is figuring things out, or if he is just showing the sort of hot and cold streaks you normally see from an average or even below average hitter. We know he fields like he's got a piano on his back, so you have to be pretty certain he's actually a well above average hitter to keep him on the roster. Right now he's a sunk cost and it will cost us a lot to trade him, so they should definitely let him DH for the rest of the year to figure out who he is if he continues to hit decently well.