The Xander Problem

[Max Power]

I played around on fangraphs and found that from 2010 to 2015, the median amount of total chances by a SS was between 276 and 286 plays in a season. By 2019 it had declined to 220 and will be well under 200 this season. So ya, shortstops aren't touching the ball as much.

That's incredible. Baseball has completely changed in just 5 years. While teams may be more efficient defensively, it's certainly hurt the aesthetics of the game. Infield defense had been honed over 100 years so every player had their own zones and their interactions with other infielders was perfected. Now it seems like infielders are constantly crossing in front of each other, double plays are turned at awkward angles, and smashes past the pitcher are never hits.

Obviously I'd rather my team's defense make the plays rather than looking good, but something has been lost to the availability of batted ball data.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

That's incredible. Baseball has completely changed in just 5 years. While teams may be more efficient defensively, it's certainly hurt the aesthetics of the game. Infield defense had been honed over 100 years so every player had their own zones and their interactions with other infielders was perfected. Now it seems like infielders are constantly crossing in front of each other, double plays are turned at awkward angles, and smashes past the pitcher are never hits.

Obviously I'd rather my team's defense make the plays rather than looking good, but something has been lost to the availability of batted ball data.

seems like an obvious response to this would be getting “small ball” style hitters that can bunt and steal well scattered throughout the lineup. Getting a guy on 2nd with less than 2 outs would prevent the shift, no?

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Two small points to consider about moving X to LF:
1. Chances might be decreasing, but at SS, you're still a leader on defense, in the middle of everything. You can't get much further away from defensive strategy and action than LF. Lots of players would not want to make that move and would look at it as a demotion. No idea if X would see it that way, but I'd almost be surprised if he didn't.
2. As we all know, Fenway is as quirky an OF as it gets. Every position has to deal with weird nooks, crannies, and angles. Walls come into play all over, with the shortest distances down the lines and least amount of foul territory. Hanley and Swihart both lost battles with the walls in LF. (Torii Hunter's ankle had a bad encounter in the triangle in center.) I thought it would be a fairly easy transition for Hanley, but it's possible that the move from middle infield to LF, especially in Fenway, is a little harder than we think.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

... and smashes past the pitcher are never hits.

An aside, but I hate this. Watching the game on tv, it's almost discombobulating. Except when Frank Viola was catching the ball behind his back, line drives up the middle have always been base hits. It's what the good Lord intended. Seeing these get turned into simple outs or double plays bugs me to an irrational degree.

(Sorry for the digression!)

 

[mwonow]

Two small points to consider about moving X to LF:
1. Chances might be decreasing, but at SS, you're still a leader on defense, in the middle of everything. You can't get much further away from defensive strategy and action than LF. Lots of players would not want to make that move and would look at it as a demotion. No idea if X would see it that way, but I'd almost be surprised if he didn't.
2. As we all know, Fenway is as quirky an OF as it gets. Every position has to deal with weird nooks, crannies, and angles. Walls come into play all over, with the shortest distances down the lines and least amount of foul territory. Hanley and Swihart both lost battles with the walls in LF. (Torii Hunter's ankle had a bad encounter in the triangle in center.) I thought it would be a fairly easy transition for Hanley, but it's possible that the move from middle infield to LF, especially in Fenway, is a little harder than we think.

Would legacy mean a lot to X? If so, LF in Boston is a pretty big deal...

 

[YTF]

I voted trade and sign one of the top SS coming into FA. Both things would have to be in quick succession or Sox lose negotiating power. I love X and all he has done, but he doesn't seem cut out defensively for SS and, based upon limited comments, doesn't want to move positions. If we are gonna pay a 8-10 year contract I'd rather have Story / Seager / Correa into their mid 30s than X into his late 30s.

Can always convince X to 3rd and Raffy to 1b. Raffy to DH seems awfully soon at his young age when he can actually field.

Okay so we got Mayer at #9 overall prospect slated for 2025, but prospects flame out all the time. And I'd rather have known SS vs a potential one. If Mayer forces the issue in 3 years, well we cross that bridge then. Trade chits or moving positions.

It would be cool if X went to 3b, Raffy to 1b, and then one of the big SS comes in. Then you deal with Casas and Mayer when they force the issue, until then they are only prospects.

This might be a very hard sell. He played a handful of games at third in his first season, 2013. In 2014 he played the entire months of June and July at third. IIRC he wasn't keen on making the move and I think his offense suffered during that transition. Those with a better memory than I can chime in about the circumstances as I'm not sure if they were trying to convert him at the time or if it was only a stop gap measure due to injury. Either way, he's not played a game at third since.

 

[YTF]

This might be a very hard sell. He played a handful of games at third in his first season, 2013. In 2014 he played the entire months of June and July at third. IIRC he wasn't keen on making the move and I think his offense suffered during that transition. Those with a better memory than I can chime in about the circumstances as I'm not sure if they were trying to convert him at the time or if it was only a stop gap measure due to injury. Either way, he's not played a game at third since.

Edit, looks like Middlebrooks (remember him?) was placed on the DL in mid May and then reinjured himself in a mid July rehab game, so that was likely how X landed at 3rd.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Signing one of the top SS, and keeping and extending both Bogaerts and Devers seems cost prohibitive and inefficient use of resources.

If you sign one of the free agent SS, it has to be with the goal of trading Bogaerts (similar to Lee Smith / Jeff Reardon?) but the Sox would have very little leverage (with Bogaerts no trade and teams knowing they had two SS). I don’t see how such a move would make any sense.

I do think the team needs to approach X and have a sense of where his head is at regarding the opt out and what is he looking for, and if it’s something they aren’t interested in (like a 7 year deal, which it probably is) they would probably at least have to think about potentially moving him, right?

Granted, if they aren’t willing to extend X, it’s hard to imagine they’d be in on the big name free agent SS who will be looking for similar deals.

After these guys sign, X’s market should be pretty well defined and the parameters of an extension should be pretty clear. Although, as the only good SS available in the ‘22 class, X is in the drivers seat.

 

[cantor44]

Signing one of the top SS, and keeping and extending both Bogaerts and Devers seems cost prohibitive and inefficient use of resources.

If you sign one of the free agent SS, it has to be with the goal of trading Bogaerts (similar to Lee Smith / Jeff Reardon?) but the Sox would have very little leverage (with Bogaerts no trade and teams knowing they had two SS). I don’t see how such a move would make any sense.

I do think the team needs to approach X and have a sense of where his head is at regarding the opt out and what is he looking for, and if it’s something they aren’t interested in (like a 7 year deal, which it probably is) they would probably at least have to think about potentially moving him, right?

Granted, if they aren’t willing to extend X, it’s hard to imagine they’d be in on the big name free agent SS who will be looking for similar deals.

After these guys sign, X’s market should be pretty well defined and the parameters of an extension should be pretty clear. Although, as the only good SS available in the ‘22 class, X is in the drivers seat.

Yep, he's totally in the driver's seat. I can only see two scenarios he stays beyond 2022: he does not opt out, because he loves playing in Boston AND has a down year in 2022 that depressed his market, OR, they offer him a new contract for closer to 30/yr for what would have been the remainder of his current contract (through 2026 his age 33 season), and he bites. In that case they deal with position shift the last couple years of that contract if Mayer really is all that.

Again: if a team is willing to give him 30/yr through his age 38 season, then you gotta let him go ...

 

[Max Power]

An aside, but I hate this. Watching the game on tv, it's almost discombobulating. Except when Frank Viola was catching the ball behind his back, line drives up the middle have always been base hits. It's what the good Lord intended. Seeing these get turned into simple outs or double plays bugs me to an irrational degree.

(Sorry for the digression!)

It always felt right, too. The guy on the mound is doing everything he can to get that ball by you. If you turn that around and knock it right back at him as fast as it was coming in, you should be rewarded.

 

[YTF]

Yep, he's totally in the driver's seat. I can only see two scenarios he stays beyond 2022: he does not opt out, because he loves playing in Boston AND has a down year in 2022 that depressed his market, OR, they offer him a new contract for closer to 30/yr for what would have been the remainder of his current contract (through 2026 his age 33 season), and he bites. In that case they deal with position shift the last couple years of that contract if Mayer really is all that.

Again: if a team is willing to give him 30/yr through his age 38 season, then you gotta let him go ...

What position do you see him playing in either of those scenarios? IMO that's going to be a huge consideration for both sides. In no way shape or form is he close to a 30 MIL/year SS now, I can't see his defensive skills progressing at this point in his career. I'm not even sure I want to pay his current salary at SS in '26.

 

[YTF]

Signing one of the top SS, and keeping and extending both Bogaerts and Devers seems cost prohibitive and inefficient use of resources.

If you sign one of the free agent SS, it has to be with the goal of trading Bogaerts (similar to Lee Smith / Jeff Reardon?) but the Sox would have very little leverage (with Bogaerts no trade and teams knowing they had two SS). I don’t see how such a move would make any sense.

I do think the team needs to approach X and have a sense of where his head is at regarding the opt out and what is he looking for, and if it’s something they aren’t interested in (like a 7 year deal, which it probably is) they would probably at least have to think about potentially moving him, right?

Granted, if they aren’t willing to extend X, it’s hard to imagine they’d be in on the big name free agent SS who will be looking for similar deals.

After these guys sign, X’s market should be pretty well defined and the parameters of an extension should be pretty clear. Although, as the only good SS available in the ‘22 class, X is in the drivers seat.

Agreed and more so when you have Mayer in the pipeline. It's early days for him and nothing is guaranteed, but if he pans out the Sox don't need Bogaert's, the mystery SS FA acquisition, and Mayer.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Yeah but even in best case scenarios, there is a gap between Bogaerts and Mayer and the Sox will need someone to play SS, and there’s not really anyone in the system capable as far as I can tell. Beyond the big name free agents this off-season and X the following year, not much avail via FA.

Marcus Semien could be a target this off-season; he could play 2b next year and be Bogaerts insurance, but he’s not going to come cheap and he’s already 30.

 

[cantor44]

What position do you see him playing in either of those scenarios? IMO that's going to be a huge consideration for both sides. In no way shape or form is he close to a 30 MIL/year SS now, I can't see his defensive skills progressing at this point in his career. I'm not even sure I want to pay his current salary at SS in '26.

Yeah, I hear you on his current salary in '26. He likely has 3-4 more years of prime offensive production remaining, and he's central to the franchise, so somewhat of an overpay for a couple years more be worth the totality of keeping him on the team.

 

[JBJ_HOF]

Boras has already chimed in in April: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/04/28/sports/other-shortstops-have-acclaim-xander-bogaerts-has-goods/

“Certainly he had a great year [in 2018], but rising to that consistency level of being in the middle of a lineup for a few years, being that guy, that was something that Xander felt was attainable in Boston,” said Boras. “Xander definitely wanted to stay in Boston. He felt comfortable establishing himself there and enjoyed being a Red Sox. That was important to him.

“I think now, Xander is a different player and person than he was when he signed this contract. The good thing is Xander can be a 29-year-old free agent, very much in his prime, and will have an opportunity to be looked at.”

 

[geoflin]

I think it's difficult if not impossible to predict what any player will do with their opt outs until the new CBA is in place. Too many variables in play. That part of this conversation would make more sense to take place at that time.

 

[Average Reds]

Boras has already chimed in in April: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/04/28/sports/other-shortstops-have-acclaim-xander-bogaerts-has-goods/

I’m not sure what your intent was when you highlighted this comment (and I mean that sincerely - no snark intended) but this is perhaps the most reasonable quote I’ve ever heard attributed to Scott Boras.

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

I’m not sure what your intent was when you highlighted this comment (and I mean that sincerely - no snark intended) but this is perhaps the most reasonable quote I’ve ever heard attributed to Scott Boras.

Except for the "29-year-old free agent, very much in his prime" line. Boras is blowing smoke there, knows damn well that 29 is past prime for baseball players.

 

[Apisith]

I would have a serious conversation with him regarding an extension. There are a lot of premium shortstops available this coming winter, I really wonder whether we should commit to one if it Xander is asking for the moon. The idea is that you don’t want to go into the 2022 winter with no other premium shortstops on the market, no internal option close to ready and then being forced to pay over the market by Boras. You see whether a deal can be done with him this winter, if not, sign another premium shortstop.

Seager is my favourite out of all of them. He’s younger than Xander, plays better D, high-upside if not injured and likely won’t come with a prohibitive AAV.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I would have a serious conversation with him regarding an extension. There are a lot of premium shortstops available this coming winter, I really wonder whether we should commit to one if it Xander is asking for the moon. The idea is that you don’t want to go into the 2022 winter with no other premium shortstops on the market, no internal option close to ready and then being forced to pay over the market by Boras. You see whether a deal can be done with him this winter, if not, sign another premium shortstop.

Seager is my favourite out of all of them. He’s younger than Xander, plays better D, high-upside if not injured and likely won’t come with a prohibitive AAV.

What do you consider a non-prohibitive AAV? Because I think he's going to get a huge haul.

 

[Apisith]

What do you consider a non-prohibitive AAV? Because I think he's going to get a huge haul.

I’d say anything from $20-25m/year would be non-prohibitive for us, assuming the new CBA doesn’t lead to a lower tax level. We could give him 7y/$175m and have him for his age 28-35 years. It would be better than giving Xander 5y/$125m for his age 30-35 years because there wasn’t any other option.

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

Except for the "29-year-old free agent, very much in his prime" line. Boras is blowing smoke there, knows damn well that 29 is past prime for baseball players.

Isn’t it widely accepted that a baseball player’s prime is age 25-30? I know it used to be that age 27 was considered the normal peak year, but I think that has been debunked.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Lindor got 10/$341 for his age 28-37 years. Seagar at 7/$175 for age 28-34 would represent a huge shift in the market. Anything is possible and if he’s available for that kind of money the Sox should jump on it but it seems unlikely.

Will be interesting to see how the market handles Seagar, Story, Correa, and to a lesssr extent Semien and Baez. Would expect Seagar, Story, and Correa get massive deals.

Semien seems like the best Sox target to me, if you can get him for 3-4 years, ideally.

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

Isn’t it widely accepted that a baseball player’s prime is age 25-30? I know it used to be that age 27 was considered the normal peak year, but I think that has been debunked.

X turns 30 on Oct 1 2022. So if he opts out next year, the first year of his next contract is his 30 year old season. Whoever signs him would be signing for his decline years. Boras is full of s**t to suggest X will be in his prime for his next contract.
I hope he can stay with the Red Sox and be a productive, if declining, player for the rest of his career. But like with Mookie, I wouldn’t fault the team for letting him go if he is looking for a deal that doesn’t reflect the reality of his impending decline.

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

X turns 30 on Oct 1 2022. So if he opts out next year, the first year of his next contract is his 30 year old season. Whoever signs him would be signing for his decline years. Boras is full of s**t to suggest X will be in his prime for his next contract.
I hope he can stay with the Red Sox and be a productive, if declining, player for the rest of his career. But like with Mookie, I wouldn’t fault the team for letting him go if he is looking for a deal that doesn’t reflect the reality of his impending decline.

Fair enough. I was responding to you a saying “Boras is blowing smoke there, knows damn well that 29 is past prime for baseball players.” That’s patently untrue.

 

[jon abbey]

I think actually it has skewed younger by a year or two in recent years, but each individual case is different, of course.

 

[cantor44]

Except for the "29-year-old free agent, very much in his prime" line. Boras is blowing smoke there, knows damn well that 29 is past prime for baseball players.

well, it's still part of the prime ... towards the end of it, but still prime.

 

[soxhop411]

Xanders first half vs second half splits are insane and makes me think he is trying to play thru some type of injury

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=bogaexa01&year=2021&t=b

 

[cantor44]

Xanders first half vs second half splits are insane and makes me think he is trying to play thru some type of injury

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=bogaexa01&year=2021&t=b

He has not been the same since he hurt his wrist. I wouldn't be surprised if he has to have surgery in the off season. Wrist injuries are tricky (I sprained mine in my twenties playing softball and it took months to heal), and he's using his wrists every day. I think there's no question he's hurt.

 

[reggiecleveland]

I just want to say what would be the level of media coverage if Jeter had hit 420 foot homer, then later taken a bounced relay throw and thrown a guy out at home in playoff game?

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

I just want to say what would be the level of media coverage if Jeter had hit 420 foot homer, then later taken a bounced relay throw and thrown a guy out at home in playoff game?

I just want to say "F*ck Jeter." (Am I allowed to say that on the main board?)

 

[joe dokes]

I just want to say what would be the level of media coverage if Jeter had hit 420 foot homer, then later taken a bounced relay throw and thrown a guy out at home in playoff game?

"Performing his usual heroics despite what some people believe is a pending wrist amputation, The Captain..........."

 

[streeter88]

How does that haiku about Jeter go? Well anyway, Xander needs a haiku.

Xander Hit Dat Bomb
Xander Relay, Judge he Gone
Xander Red Sox Strong

(Edited)

 

[BrazilianSoxFan]

I just want to say "F*ck Jeter." (Am I allowed to say that on the main board?)

You're not allowed to not say it.

Fuck Jeter.

 

[soxhop411]

I just want to say what would be the level of media coverage if Jeter had hit 420 foot homer, then later taken a bounced relay throw and thrown a guy out at home in playoff game?

@Chad Finn is reading this thread

If Derek Jeter had made a similar play, there would have been poems written about it by the seventh-inning stretch. I say it was the Red Sox’ best and most important defensive play of the season.

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2021/10/06/red-sox-yankees-wild-card-game-analysis-chad-finn/

 

[EdRalphRomero]

BTW @Chad Finn was requesting his new tagline be "Backcountry Meatstick." I guess it has some personal meaning for him if a Dope could make that happen.
View: https://twitter.com/GlobeChadFinn/status/1445384153499947016?s=20

 

[soxhop411]

View: https://twitter.com/_dadler/status/1445831487165800451

this is amazing

 

[brandonchristensen]

How the hell did they do that?

The throw animation is identical to him. Is it analyzing them at that level? what is going onnnnn

 

[patinorange]

View: https://twitter.com/_dadler/status/1445831487165800451

this is amazing

Pretty cool. To me Hernandez made a great play also. Backed up and played the wall perfectly.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

How the hell did they do that?

The throw animation is identical to him. Is it analyzing them at that level? what is going onnnnn

It's simple motion capture technology.

 

[Archer1979]

It's simple motion capture technology.

Our generation didn't have that when we were younger. We had to rely on such technological advances like Peter Puck.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Crazy how much it looks like him.

 

[brandonchristensen]

It's simple motion capture technology.

Simple motion capture?

In movies they have people dress up in suits with tracking markers. Are we beyond that now? Did the sports nerds figure it out?

 

[Lowrielicious]

View: https://twitter.com/_dadler/status/1445831487165800451

this is amazing

Fantastic.
Just found my new avatar.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Simple motion capture?

In movies they have people dress up in suits with tracking markers. Are we beyond that now? Did the sports nerds figure it out?

Way beyond that. Xbox Kinect has been around for over a decade, and it's essentially the same type of tech they use for Statcast.

 

[opes]

The simple answer is this: can we get a better offensive and/or defensive SS that replaces Xanders value. What are the FA options at this point? Most of the prime SS players are wrapped up in ridiculous contracts we wouldn't pay.

 

[brandonchristensen]

Way beyond that. Xbox Kinect has been around for over a decade, and it's essentially the same type of tech they use for Statcast.

That had such a limited range. Are they zapping a billion dots into the stadium with Bill Gates' 5G gun? And it's collecting the data?

Is that how this all works? I literally have no idea how they do what they do, I just see the results and think it's pretty crazy.

 

[chrisfont9]

Fantastic.
Just found my new avatar.

If you start getting a bunch of questions about Burning Man, well...

 

[mattrobot]

Simple motion capture?

In movies they have people dress up in suits with tracking markers. Are we beyond that now? Did the sports nerds figure it out?

It looks like they have a partnership with Google to do this crazy stuff using a platform called Anthos and a ton of Statcast cameras:

Fieldvision leverages Google’s AI and computer vision to autonomously film every angle, every second of every play to analyze the mechanics and physics behind every seemingly impossible play.

More at the link.

 

[chrisfont9]

The simple answer is this: can we get a better offensive and/or defensive SS that replaces Xanders value. What are the FA options at this point? Most of the prime SS players are wrapped up in ridiculous contracts we wouldn't pay.

Mayer is not due to arrive for maybe 4 years, so Bogaerts' prime window fits that to a T. So unless you can find a replacement of suitable quality at roughly the same age, I can't imagine why we would want to make a change. The defensive issues aren't great, but they don't strike me as anywhere near as disruptive as losing his bat/personality/history etc.