The Victorino Health Watch Thread
- Thread starter mabrowndog
- Start date
Plympton91 said:
Admittedly, it's not. However, what distinguishes Bradley from Sizemore and Nava is that Bradley is at a stage in his career when it's rational to assume that he will get better with time and experience. I don't think for a minute that Nava has suddenly and catastrophically become a sub-Kevin-Cash hitter, but I do think we probably saw the best of him last year and he may very well slip back to the ordinary hitter he was in 2010 and 2012, at which point he becomes, at best, a backup. Sizemore, as others have pointed out, hasn't been an above-average player in at least five years. Yes, this was injury-driven, but just because injury was the reason why he was an average player in 2009 and a mediocre player in 2010, that doesn't mean he might not be a mediocre player in 2014 even when healthy. Time marches on and rust accumulates.
And then there's the fact that Bradley is really our only viable CF at this point -- Sizemore or Victorino could fill in there, but I don't want either of them starting there.
So it's really a question (or should be) of which of Carp, Nava and Sizemore gets the boot.
In actual Shane Victorino Health news, he went 1-4 with the Pawsox tonight, played 7 innings in right field and did NOT re-injure himself.
I think the more interesting concern with respect to the fielding once Victorino comes back is that, to my eyes anyway, it looks worse that it did last year on a person to person comparison in many cases. Let's not forget that Gomes, Nava and Carp all played a significant number of games in the OF:
[tablegrid= 2013 Red Sox OF Appearances ] LF CF RF Ellsbury 0 134 0 Victorino 0 15 110 Nava 63 1 69 Gomes 98 0 4 Carp 41 0 2
To me, though, Nava and Carp have looked really, really bad. Maybe their abilities or lack their of are hidden a bit when only one of Gomes, Napa or Carp (and now Sizemore are in there) with Victorino and an elite CF, but as per above, I don't remember it being this bad even when Victorino or Ells was out.
While I take the advanced fielding metrics with a huge grain of salt, JBJ has been excellent in center this year with his biggest hiccups being on missing on throws that actually underscore the strength of his arm. As such, comping the others with him swapped in for Ells (who the advanced stats hate this year thus far, FWIW) seems to make sense to me. JBJ may well be the odd man out when Victorino comes back, but if so, that outfield is going to be tough to watch.
[tablegrid= 2013 Red Sox OF Appearances ]
To me, though, Nava and Carp have looked really, really bad. Maybe their abilities or lack their of are hidden a bit when only one of Gomes, Napa or Carp (and now Sizemore are in there) with Victorino and an elite CF, but as per above, I don't remember it being this bad even when Victorino or Ells was out.
While I take the advanced fielding metrics with a huge grain of salt, JBJ has been excellent in center this year with his biggest hiccups being on missing on throws that actually underscore the strength of his arm. As such, comping the others with him swapped in for Ells (who the advanced stats hate this year thus far, FWIW) seems to make sense to me. JBJ may well be the odd man out when Victorino comes back, but if so, that outfield is going to be tough to watch.
Rasputin said:
normstalls said:
Rudy Pemberton said:
So with Vic apparently a day or two away, there seems to be a growing consensus here as to the top 4 OFs: Sizemore/Gomes, JBJ, and Victorino (L>R).Rasputin said:
Then the question is who is the 5th OF on the ML roster: Carp who is clearly the lesser defender or Nava who provides some measure of LF/RF flexibility? OBP or SLG? If they can get Nava thru to Pawtucket, then it seems like it would make sense to keep Carp in Boston. But if they have to pull Nava back, do they cut or attempt to trade one or the other?
I think they have to find a way to get Nava to AAA or the disabled list. He is a disaster at the plate right now. I would never have said this at the beginning of the year and am surprised by how bad he has looked.
His batted ball numbers are as awful as you would think. His line drive percentage has gone from 26% to 18%, ground ball percentage from 34% to 44%, and infield fly ball percentage from 5% to 21%. Nava popped up 7 times all last year, already 4 times this year.
SSS understood but I think this is the way to go.
His batted ball numbers are as awful as you would think. His line drive percentage has gone from 26% to 18%, ground ball percentage from 34% to 44%, and infield fly ball percentage from 5% to 21%. Nava popped up 7 times all last year, already 4 times this year.
SSS understood but I think this is the way to go.
mabrowndog said:
Actually, he's coming back tonight.
I wonder what the plan is when Victorino is back with the big club. Play him everyday? I expect a slow start from him until he gets rid of the rust. That said, when he is back in his stride the plan should clearly be Vic as the every-day RFer, Bradley as the every-day CFer, and a Sizemore/Gomes platoon in LF. Carp is the designated PHer with an occasional start. Nava either gets claimed or, hopefully, figures his swing out with the Paw Sox and is recalled when someone gets hurt or a team makes a good offer for Carp.
None of the OFers are hitting right now. Their only OFer with an OPS above AL average (0.706) is Gomes (0.709). Regarding Bradley, he is 2nd on the team in doubles (4 of his 12 hits are 2B) and T2nd in BB despite relatively few PAs. Unfortunately, he is also striking out on 30% of his PAs, which is a Napolitonian rate. These numbers are, of course, by no means whatsoever predictive; I throw them out only to show that Bradley has been contributing at the plate - not as much as we should hope, but no less that the "veterans". Plus, as noted above, his current youth and inexperience suggest that improvement is not at all unlikely. They should stick with him as the everyday CFer. The lack of plate-production from that position is not the prime culprit holding this team back.
Reverend said:
And he's still managing to put up a .333 OBP, which is above the AL average for center fielders last year, which was .326. If you're going to pick one tool that you are willing to bet on offensively, it's probably the ability to not make outs, so even with his contact and k rates looking a bit worrisome, he's still providing better than league average production at the plate.
I think we all had a pretty good idea that Jacoby would play well in New York (at least for the first few years) and that JBJ wouldn't hit like Ellsbury did, at least at first. We should not be surprised, therefore, when those two things have actually occurred.
But I am very bullish on Bradley and think he'll end up being a terrific major league CF. And we are just three weeks into the season, folks. Long, long way to go.
But I am very bullish on Bradley and think he'll end up being a terrific major league CF. And we are just three weeks into the season, folks. Long, long way to go.
Farrell: Victorino could be activated tomorrow.
https://twitter.com/TimBritton/status/458699718093447168
https://twitter.com/TimBritton/status/458699718093447168
Rev's post above looking at the outfield wholistically was a great point. It highlights the weakness in the defensive stats which is akin to the problem with plus/minus stats in hockey and basketball. Witness how Jeter's defensive stats changed so dramatically playing next to ARod.
It's entirely possible that the weakness of the Sox left field trio was covered by having two gold glove outfielders. It also highlights why the weakness was so pronounced when they played Grady's ghost in CF earlier this season and hence had no above average fielders out there at all.
It's entirely possible that the weakness of the Sox left field trio was covered by having two gold glove outfielders. It also highlights why the weakness was so pronounced when they played Grady's ghost in CF earlier this season and hence had no above average fielders out there at all.
Not sure where to put this:
Scott Lauber @ScottLauber 1m
Given recent overuse of bullpen, Farrell said #RedSox likely will have to add a pitcher tomorrow, Victorino on Thursday
Scott Lauber @ScottLauber 1m
Given recent overuse of bullpen, Farrell said #RedSox likely will have to add a pitcher tomorrow, Victorino on Thursday
gatorgurl67 said:
Given that Victorino was 0-4 with 3 K's and an error, seems like a polite way of saying that perhaps he should get more games in with Pawtucket. He basically took the winter to recover from last season's injuries and then missed most of spring training. They tried this last season with Drew, and he went like 7 for 60 before catching up to the rest of the league and starting to hit. Given that activating Vic requires a hard roster decision, what exactly is the rush to get him back?
Or, the just had two really taxing games on the bullpen and legitimately need an arm.Plympton91 said:
Also. I honestly couldn't care less about Victorino at the plate. They need that dude in right field ASAP. Right field defense has beyond atrocious everytime anyone but Bradley has been there.
https://twitter.com/Sean_McAdam/status/458803661016432640
Looks like it's Nava. No surprise, but sad to see. Hopefully this is just a slump.
Looks like it's Nava. No surprise, but sad to see. Hopefully this is just a slump.
He'll be needed back.
Sizemore honestly couldn't look worse in the field. You hope he can work out of it with game time, but its a monster unknown.
Sizemore honestly couldn't look worse in the field. You hope he can work out of it with game time, but its a monster unknown.
It's definitely not surprising since he has the option left, thus not impacting their organizational depth and giving them more time to assess Sizemore, who has been nearly as bad at the plate and possibly worse in the field. Actually, Sizemore has been even worse against RH pitching than Nava.Laser Show said:
A little time to figure things out on a stage with much dimmer lights is probably just what Nava needs. He'll be back, and I would guess, he'll be a lot better.
To that point, after JBJ's torrential spring last year and The Reanimation of Grady Sizemore this spring, I hope we can all agree going forward that spring training is not remotely predictive of actual performance.
This also illustrates why these so-called "no-risk signings" like Smoltz and Sizemore aren't really no risk. They come with the risk that the players show just enough to warrant a longer look, and then they suck during that longer look.
And sometimes, like Adrian Beltre, those low-cost opps work out quite well indeed.Reverend said:
Should we mention again that it's a mere 21 games into the season?
If you abstract from the overexposure to lefthanded pitchers who he shouldn't play regularly against, Nava is just in a perfectly normal slump. And, one of the reasons he's playing more against lefthanders is because there are 4 lefthanded outfielders and one righty. Without Sizemore taking up a roster spot, there would be room for Snyder, Brentz or Hassan to platoon with Nava. So, the lack of another righty and a more balanced platoon arrangement over the first three weeks is another part of the opportunity cost.Reverend said:
Further, Nava's performance to date is more of a sunk cost than an opportunity cost. The opportunity cost is that of Nava's projected production going forward, assuming he has cleared OAW.
To be clear, I'm not saying it was a bad idea to give Sizemore the chance or that the plug should be pulled already, I'm just saying that there's no such thing as a free lunch.
I don't think the term "sunk cost" can really be applied to a 21 game stretch at the beginning of the season.
The subject of "no-risk" signings also merits it's own thread. You're including one complete and utter failure in Smoltz and another in Sizemore (after just 3.5 weeks), but are ignoring the "no-risk" signings of Wakefield, Ortiz, Okajima, etc., where the reward has been over-the-top. What percentage of these "no-risk" ventures do you have to hit on in order to justify the process? 15%? It's not as if the Sox are trying to get by completely with bargain hunting. They're still going to end up close to the luxury tax cap.Plympton91 said:
WenZink said:
I don't see Smoltz and Sizemore in the same category as those other ones that have been mentioned. Ortiz had a perfectly league average season for the Twins in the year before he signed, they just didn't think he was worth the arbitration award he was going to get so they nontendered him. Had he had that same season for the Red Sox, they likely would have tendered him a contract. Beltre was going to provide gold glove defense at 3B even if he didn't hit and he was signed for $8 million if I remember correctly, so it wasn't really a "no risk" signing. Similarly last year with Drew signing for $9.5 million. Those players were signed to produce in starting roles, not as a "lets see if he has anything left" flier. Wakefield was signed to a minor league contract and only added after he showed success in AAA. Smoltz and Sizemore got major league contracts coming off catastrophic injuries. There was no flexibility and very low chance of success.
Beltre played in only 111 games the year before the Sox signed him. Assessing him as more or less a sure thing even for defense seems to ignore the reality of it.
The flexibilty you bemoan is lacking is actually there because Sizemore's contract is so small they can cut him easily if he doesn't work out. What did he get, 750K? That's where the flexibility comes in.
And again, it's been 21 games and you're already chalking up Sizemore as a failure. That's silly. If you're going to handwave away Nava's struggles as a regular slump, I see no reason why Sizemore's slow start couldn't be considered exactly the same.
The flexibilty you bemoan is lacking is actually there because Sizemore's contract is so small they can cut him easily if he doesn't work out. What did he get, 750K? That's where the flexibility comes in.
And again, it's been 21 games and you're already chalking up Sizemore as a failure. That's silly. If you're going to handwave away Nava's struggles as a regular slump, I see no reason why Sizemore's slow start couldn't be considered exactly the same.
So you're introducing a "sub-category" to "no-risk" signings, which is perfectly reasonable. But the Sox are trying to leverage the advances in sports medicine and physical therapy, and I think it's a valid path, because, someday, it's going to work. And I'm certainly not going to write-off Sizemore. Perhaps the solution is to DL him when Victorino is added today, and let Grady re-charge his batteries and see if he's improved in a couple of weeks. (I don't think it would be too hard to come up with some valid injury -- there's a lot to choose from.)Plympton91 said:
(And I do think Ortiz qualifies as a no-risk reclamation project. In the winter of 2002-03, Theo signed Walker, Jeremy Giambi, Ortiz and breached etiquette by stealing Millar on his way to Japan. Epstein was seen, by some, as throwing crap against the wall and seeing what stuck. Giambi was the highest-profile of the quartet, and in the early going, even knowledgable fans were wondering what that "fat slug" Ortiz was doing taking away valuable ST at-bats away from "real" players.)
The gist of the matter is that these "no-risk" attempts are what I like most about the Red Sox. It's not just rooting for laundry. It's rooting for an organization that uses it's advantage in resources to attempt to be innovative, instead of just writing big checks every year. I was depressed when the Sox went on a spending spree (after the 2009 season) and thank the Lord for sending us St. Earvin of Los Angeles to deliver us from evil.
Van Everyman said:
Not completely. Sizemore's spring served to demonstrate that his health might allow him to be a major league player. If he had missed practice and game time with assorted nagging injuries, he wouldn't be in Boston. Beyond that, though, results are not predictive. But does anyone think they are?
Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
The Red Sox gave Beltre $8 million, that isn't "no risk," that's a risk of losing $8 million guaranteed dollars.
Cutting someone is the very definition of "losing flexibility."
I agree that on offense Sizemore could just be in a slump or shaking off rust, and that he could yet prove to be a valuable bat. I said that in my previous post. However, I think we can all agree that he's not a CF anymore and that's what the Red Sox really needed as well as part of the reason why they're exposing Nava to OAW rather than sending down Bradley. Moreover, it's not even clear that he's any better defensively in the corners than Nava at this point, so like Nava he's going to have to be an 800 OPS guy to have any value at all. Who's more likely to give you that value going forward, the guy who was an 800 OPS guy last season, or the guy who was last an 800 OPS guy in 2008? Once Nava is hitting .350 at Pawtucket, I hope they don't wait too much longer for Sizemore to find the fountain of youth.
Plympton91 said:
Writing off JBJ already? Oh wait, you've already made your position clear on him, he's never gonna make it, right? It's obvious that the plan is to see if Bradley can take over the CF job long term.
$8 million for 1 year isn't really much of a risk to the Red Sox. The Royals, maybe, but not the Sox.
Weren't you just complaining about lack of roster flexibility? If Sizemore stinks they won't have any qualms in cutting him because the financial obligation to him is practically nil, in baseball terms.
OK we're 21 days out at sea and already we are putting the swords to Cheringtons' neck?
It sucks and we're all frustrated with this, but deep down we all knew there would be transitional pain to open the year. We waved goodbye to a top 5 CFer and SS, and have gone straight to rookies up the middle. X and JBJ have held up their end of the bargain so far, and they will improve over the season. Capuano is a "buy low candidate" and has looked fantastic. The funny, yet scary part of all this is we could play like this for the next month and still be OK. Realistically we should expect this team to be around .500 at the 50 game mark. The AL East is very balanced and that won't put us too far out. At that point the front office can address the teams needs and use their financial flexibility to start filling holes.
Back to the thread:
Grady has made $1MM so far (750K + 250K for making the opening roster), 250K bonus' start kicking in quite often on/after day 60 of the season, so that gives us a another month to size him up. Thats what he gets, another month to pick it up or so long.
Nava goes down to Pawtucket to fix his swing over the next month. If he has turned into a pumpkin, credit to Ras for suggesting this might happen, then its an open competition between Brentz, Hassan, Snyder, etc
Give Victorino a few extra days at Pawtucket and get some bullpen help, Tazawa is getting worked way too hard at this point of the season.
Gomes splits time in LF with Grady, he brings energy and more importantly power to the lineup.
My only suggestion to not getting too annoyed with the organization is to check out the farm. Betts, Owens, and Swihart at Portland are en fuego. Rubby has been the best pitcher at Pawtucket and we have Workman waiting down there just in case.
An improving X/JBJ, lots of assets in the minors and tons of CASH on hand, should make the Sox a very dangerous team after the All-Star break.
It sucks and we're all frustrated with this, but deep down we all knew there would be transitional pain to open the year. We waved goodbye to a top 5 CFer and SS, and have gone straight to rookies up the middle. X and JBJ have held up their end of the bargain so far, and they will improve over the season. Capuano is a "buy low candidate" and has looked fantastic. The funny, yet scary part of all this is we could play like this for the next month and still be OK. Realistically we should expect this team to be around .500 at the 50 game mark. The AL East is very balanced and that won't put us too far out. At that point the front office can address the teams needs and use their financial flexibility to start filling holes.
Back to the thread:
Grady has made $1MM so far (750K + 250K for making the opening roster), 250K bonus' start kicking in quite often on/after day 60 of the season, so that gives us a another month to size him up. Thats what he gets, another month to pick it up or so long.
Nava goes down to Pawtucket to fix his swing over the next month. If he has turned into a pumpkin, credit to Ras for suggesting this might happen, then its an open competition between Brentz, Hassan, Snyder, etc
Give Victorino a few extra days at Pawtucket and get some bullpen help, Tazawa is getting worked way too hard at this point of the season.
Gomes splits time in LF with Grady, he brings energy and more importantly power to the lineup.
My only suggestion to not getting too annoyed with the organization is to check out the farm. Betts, Owens, and Swihart at Portland are en fuego. Rubby has been the best pitcher at Pawtucket and we have Workman waiting down there just in case.
An improving X/JBJ, lots of assets in the minors and tons of CASH on hand, should make the Sox a very dangerous team after the All-Star break.
Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
No, for the 10th time, I'm not writing off JBJ at all; I think he could benefit a lot from additional AAA time, but they can't give it to him because nobody else in the organization can play CF in the majors right now. Indeed, the main problem is that JBJ is the only legitimate CF option in the organization not only right now but also for the foreseeable future, with the next real prospect currently playing in Greenville. Moreover, we've learned in the past 21 days that Victorino is the only real option in the organization for RF defensively. So, unless Bradley's superman, there's a non-zero risk of long-term injury as well as whatever probability you attach to under-performance in a rookie season with only a partial AAA season in preparation, while we must hope that Victorino is completely over his injury problems for this season, too. Because when Victorino's out, Bradley is not only the only legitimate CF in the organization, but also the only legitimate RF in the organization, and he can't play both at the same time.
Had Sizemore been able to be an everyday CF, or at least displayed better range at this point in his rehab/career in RF than Nava, they would have been back closer to the deep depth they had last year. But he can't, so they aren't. Sizemore is just another potentially good bat who can play a decent LF; they've already got a lot of those. He's Nava insurance, but so was Gomes, so was Carp, so was Hassan, and so is Brentz.
Isn't the point to having a strong farm system that you develop players to replace guys who leave for one reason or another? I really don't understand the anxiety here. Should they have given Beltre a huge contract in case Middlebrooks doesn't pan out? What about Drew in case Xander sucks? Salty, or even McCann, in the event that Vazquez tanks?
At some point you have take a chance that the guys you drafted and developed can actually play in the majors and let someone like Ellsbury who demanded a ridiculous contract walk away.
Crap, this should probably go in the other thread that P91 is polluting.
At some point you have take a chance that the guys you drafted and developed can actually play in the majors and let someone like Ellsbury who demanded a ridiculous contract walk away.
Crap, this should probably go in the other thread that P91 is polluting.
glennhoffmania said:
The point is that despite the overall strength, they don't have a strong crop of CFers in the farm system. They have Bradley on the cusp and then Margot at Greenville. Moreover, they don't have a legitimate backup CF on the major league roster, except Victorino, but when Victorino plays CF they don't have a legitimate backup in RF either.
At 3B, they have Middlebrooks, with Cecchini banging at the door in Pawtucket if he fails or gets hurt long-term. Jonathan Herrera is a legitimate major league backup at SS providing insurance for Xander, with Marerro at Portland who could serve as Iggy-lite if it came to that and Holt provides reasonable backup to Herrera as the utility infielder. They have deep depth at SS and 3B that they lack in CF and RF, despite the overall strength of the farm system. Not to mention the potential for Betts to possibly play multiple infield positions. Frankly, Betts might be the best option for CF if Bradley goes down with injury.
And, yes, they should have beaten the offer that the Marlins gave to Salty, because given the lack of depth they have at 1B (Napoli only signed for 2 years and no legitimate prospects anywhere in the system) he wouldn't necessarily have blocked Vazquez even if the forecast for his progress comes true.
So the solution was to shell out $160m in case Bradley isn't ready and they can't find a backup RF for when Victorino plays CF?
Plympton91 said:
So you are saying that when a star player departs via free agency it affects the depth at his position?
When deciding weather to outbid $22M/yr x 7 yrs for their 30 yr old star CF, the depth they had at CF was a MLB top-50 prospect that was likely ready for the majors on 2014.
dbn said:
You know, I haven't brought up Ellsbury in this thread since ABS asked me to stop doing it and the other thread got split out. The analysis I've been writing in this thread for the past 36 hours relates to the roster decision that needs to be made to accommodate Victorino's return from the DL, and how that affects the lineup and the offense for the next month or so of the season. With Victorino back, and Bradley the only choice in CF, they have now decided to bet on Sizemore for the next month rather than Nava. If Sizemore had been able to play CF competently, then the choice of Nava vs. Bradley may not have been the same.
Nava is now the obvious move, and it is the most logical step towards him becoming a valuable major leaguer again.
Sizemore/JBJ/Victorino
Gomes/JBJ/Victorino
Gomes/Victorino/Sizemore (Gomes/Sizemore/Victorino?)
Those are our three outfield configurations for a while with some doubt on the last one which I hope we don't see too much of. JBJ has hit well enough and demonstrated his fielding advantage over the competition enough that he should be penciled in as the nine-hitter and centerfielder a lot, and we can all be a little patient as the OPS takes a while to move from .600 to .800.
Nava has to prove to be back on track enough to DFA Sizemore or trade Carp, or more likely get his call up when there is a DL stint for someone. I think he will get his chance, and I root for him on all the personal levels.
And while our magic number to clinch the east is stuck at 156, if we drop it to 154 tonight and 152 tomorrow, and get Victorino making a difference to our offense and defense, get WMB back, and hopefully start seeing Ross get more playing time, we should all be alright.
Sizemore/JBJ/Victorino
Gomes/JBJ/Victorino
Gomes/Victorino/Sizemore (Gomes/Sizemore/Victorino?)
Those are our three outfield configurations for a while with some doubt on the last one which I hope we don't see too much of. JBJ has hit well enough and demonstrated his fielding advantage over the competition enough that he should be penciled in as the nine-hitter and centerfielder a lot, and we can all be a little patient as the OPS takes a while to move from .600 to .800.
Nava has to prove to be back on track enough to DFA Sizemore or trade Carp, or more likely get his call up when there is a DL stint for someone. I think he will get his chance, and I root for him on all the personal levels.
And while our magic number to clinch the east is stuck at 156, if we drop it to 154 tonight and 152 tomorrow, and get Victorino making a difference to our offense and defense, get WMB back, and hopefully start seeing Ross get more playing time, we should all be alright.
A dozen years ago, all the Sox had to do to compete for a World Championship was to just spend their money a little more efficiently than the Yankees (not hard to do). In 2014, with all the RTV revenue flooding into franchises, there are maybe 15 teams that are going to a) Extend the contracts of pre-FA talent, b) bid up the price of 30+ year old stars that do reach free agency. Having won 3 WS in 10 years, I don't think Sox fans would be happy with a strategy that will yield, on average, one Championship every 15 years. (And the Yankees have won just 1 World Series in the last 13 years.) Realistically 1 WS Ch every 15 may be the best we can expect, but I give kudos to John Henry & Co. for trying to do better.
This may be a bridge year. But even if the Sox drop out of contention by mid-August, if JB Jr, Xander and Middleton all prove themselves to be rounding into reliable (or better) talent at their positions, then that gives freedom to Cherington to empty out a lot of the farm system to trade for young talent (like Stanton). And if Bradley can't hit above .210 and Middleton lapses back into his bad habits, and Xander butchers the SS position, then they will look to the next wave of farm talent, and hope that 2015 is the year of the prospect. Maybe not the brightest outlook for an entitled fan base, but the best way to beat the odds in the long run. And when you have a nucleus of young, cost-controlled talent, then you spend (like bringing in a Cliff Lee at the end of his contract.)
Just don't end up like the Phillies.
This may be a bridge year. But even if the Sox drop out of contention by mid-August, if JB Jr, Xander and Middleton all prove themselves to be rounding into reliable (or better) talent at their positions, then that gives freedom to Cherington to empty out a lot of the farm system to trade for young talent (like Stanton). And if Bradley can't hit above .210 and Middleton lapses back into his bad habits, and Xander butchers the SS position, then they will look to the next wave of farm talent, and hope that 2015 is the year of the prospect. Maybe not the brightest outlook for an entitled fan base, but the best way to beat the odds in the long run. And when you have a nucleus of young, cost-controlled talent, then you spend (like bringing in a Cliff Lee at the end of his contract.)
Just don't end up like the Phillies.
Two things...the Sox DO have a viable CF'r in Sizemore, recent slump notwithstanding. It's premature to write him off at this early stage. With Victorino back, they now have 3 CF's + 2 OF backups.
As for organizational depth, it's incorrect to not consider future trades or FA signings.
{edit: the 3+2 OF situation is identical to the Yankees, (Ellsbury, Gardiner & Sazuki + Beltran & Soriano)
As for organizational depth, it's incorrect to not consider future trades or FA signings.
{edit: the 3+2 OF situation is identical to the Yankees, (Ellsbury, Gardiner & Sazuki + Beltran & Soriano)
Plympton91 said:
Plympton91 said:
You are arguing against yourself at this point. There was no opportunity cost to signing Sizemore because there were no other legitimate options in CF. We've seen that Bradley can cover CF. We've now found out that Sizemore can not. Had they not signed Sizemore, Victorino would have toughed out a hamstring injury in RF. Or Carp/Nava/Gomes would have played more games, giving up more runs in the field, sapping the starting pitching and bullpen, and offering very little against right-handed pitchers.
edit: the other kind of waffling that you allude to in your first comment is with players' health. When there is no depth, the Red Sox give a shocking amount of leeway to players who might or might not go on the DL, and it has come back to bite them every year (2013 being the exception). By signing Sizemore, it allowed them to give Victorino rest, which presumably will pay dividends further into the season.
The Red Sox played .500 ball in May last year.
Update
Tonight is the 66th game of the season for the Sox, and he's had 99 PA. Last year to this point, he'd played 36 games with 154 PA and a .283/.342/.362 line, missing 8 G from 4/25 thru 5/2, and another 17 G from 5/21 thru 6/7. He was able to avoid missing significant time with injuries the rest of the way.
Tonight is the 66th game of the season for the Sox, and he's had 99 PA. Last year to this point, he'd played 36 games with 154 PA and a .283/.342/.362 line, missing 8 G from 4/25 thru 5/2, and another 17 G from 5/21 thru 6/7. He was able to avoid missing significant time with injuries the rest of the way.
Today's rehab results with the PawSox (vs RHP Dylan Axelrod):
1st - Flied to RF on a 1-1 pitch
3rd - Ground out 6-3 on a 2-2 pitch, ending the inning and stranding runners at the corners.
5th - Pinch hit for by Corey Brown
1st - Flied to RF on a 1-1 pitch
3rd - Ground out 6-3 on a 2-2 pitch, ending the inning and stranding runners at the corners.
5th - Pinch hit for by Corey Brown