The Value of Belichick

BigSoxFan

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We all know how valuable he is to the organization so the premise of this thread is simple.

What is the price that you would actually consider trading Belichick to another organization? The compensation can be in the form of players and/or picks and you can use real examples.

For instance, if KC calls up and says, "hey, you can have Patrick Mahomes for Belichick", do you do it? Let's say Arizona offers the #1 pick and their 2020 #1? Is that enough?

Or, is there simply no compensation that you'd deem worthwhile to make that trade? Keep emotions out of it (i.e., "I want him to retire as a Patriot" type stuff) and factor in his age and likely coaching window.
 

tims4wins

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Mahomes would make a lot of sense, as Brady will likely play 2-3 more years and Mahomes will be cheap the next 3 years. But the flip side is you wouldn't be playing Mahomes. So I don't think there would be a point in that type of trade.

I was thinking along the lines of Saints Rest. First rounders for the next 5 or so years.

I also thought about the idea of trading for a Kyle Shanahan or a McVay or someone of that ilk plus a couple first rounders. But I have confidence that Josh will do well in stint #2.

So I guess I'd trade him for a pure haul of draft picks. No other players or coaches necessary.
 

BusRaker

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Depends on how many years he commits to ... pushing 67 and all. Maybe a 1st rounder for each two years of commitment?
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Six Super Bowls. What is left for a fan to need?

I don't want to see him on any other team. Another trophy isn't worth seeing him in a Chargers hoodie. As long as he wants to coach, I don't want him on any other team.

So, there is no price.

And I don't feel that way about any other player or coach on any other team. I root for the laundry. But, this is different.

Edit: Except for Papi maybe. I don't think there is any price at which I would have been ok with Papi being a Yankee.
 

Ralphwiggum

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Six Super Bowls. What is left for a fan to need?

I don't want to see him on any other team. Another trophy isn't worth seeing him in a Chargers hoodie. As long as he wants to coach, I don't want him on any other team.

So, there is no price.

And I don't feel that way about any other player or coach on any other team. I root for the laundry. But, this is different.
+1
 

dcmissle

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He’s not a commodity.

His contract with the Patriots is a personal services contract. You cannot trade executives and compel them to work for the new employer. Attempting to do so might be a breach of contract on the Patriots’ part, freeing him immediately to go where he pleases. Or retire.

The hypothetical is counter factual also in assuming BB would undertake an assignment that would hamstring him in his new position.

Take over the Chiefs and I have no QB. Or give up multiple first round picks. Yeah, right.
 

BigSoxFan

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He’s not a commodity.

His contract with the Patriots is a personal services contract. You cannot trade executives and compel them to work for the new employer. Attempting to do so might be a breach of contract on the Patriots’ part, freeing him immediately to go where he pleases. Or retire.

The hypothetical is counter factual also in assuming BB would undertake an assignment that would hamstring him in his new position.

Take over the Chiefs and I have no QB. Or give up multiple first round picks. Yeah, right.
You must be fun at parties.
 

dcmissle

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Believe me, if Daniel Snyder could, he should, because a legacy NFL franchise is dissolving before our eyes, in all of its aspects — on the field, in the front office and ownership suite, off the field and wrt the new stadium. Fan base cratering.

But this is precisely why personal services contracts like Belichick’s are not tradeable.
 

Adrian's Dome

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But this is precisely why personal services contracts like Belichick’s are not tradeable.
Which is why it's a freaking hypothetical.

Back on topic, there's no amount of value that would make it worth it. What good are 1st rounders without a viable infrastructure in place? You may not get another good (let alone god-tier) coach for decades, when you have one, you hold onto them.
 

Jimbodandy

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If it were possible to trade him, I'd want five first round picks plus five more NBA-style first round pick swap options. Basically five of your next ten first-round picks are mine and I get to upgrade in the first round the other years. And I decide the week before the draft whether I'm taking or swapping. That would be my price.

edit: Oh, and Belichick has veto rights to the deal before I make it
 

DrewDawg

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Believe me, if Daniel Snyder could, he should, because a legacy NFL franchise is dissolving before our eyes, in all of its aspects — on the field, in the front office and ownership suite, off the field and wrt the new stadium. Fan base cratering.

But this is precisely why personal services contracts like Belichick’s are not tradeable.
Dude, we know. Honestly.
 

InstaFace

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Take over the Chiefs and I have no QB. Or give up multiple first round picks. Yeah, right.
He did it once already, albeit it was only a single first-round pick that his new organization was short.

Though arguably, over time, the eventual compensation was 3 first-rounders and $500k out of his own pocket...
 

dcmissle

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Which is why it's a freaking hypothetical.

Back on topic, there's no amount of value that would make it worth it. What good are 1st rounders without a viable infrastructure in place? You may not get another good (let alone god-tier) coach for decades, when you have one, you hold onto them.
I posted because there may be people here thinking, “well they traded Jon Gruden (to Tampa) and BB (to NE), so why not? The simple answer is, they wanted to be traded and cooperated in the deal.

One can only imagine BB’s reaction to Kraft:

“Let me get this straight — you want to monetize me? You paid X for this franchise, and it’s worth 10X today — and YOU want to monetize ME?”
 

BigSoxFan

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I don’t think the OP was suggesting this would be an actual plan, but rather a way on a theoretical level, to place a value on BB in terms of players, the way you might say a Franchise tag player is worth two first-round picks.
Correct. This is a valuation exercise. Nothing more. But I have now learned something about personal service contracts, which is nice.
 

Al Zarilla

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Hey, he is getting older but my answer is still like DDB’s: NOT FOR SALE.

I also don’t ever want to see Brady in another uniform. I have never thought about abandoning the NFL, like some are talking about when the two Bs are gone. But that might do it.
 

SMU_Sox

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This is one of those topics that is purely a hypothetical. A fun little thought exercise. No need for every post here to be serious. If it were me I'd hang up the phone laughing but let's pretend everything has a price and Bill is looking for a fresh start somewhere warmer maybe as he gets closer to retirement age. I'd start the bidding at 3 first round picks, probably some day 2 picks and maybe some day 3's just to use as trade chips. I'd also maybe want a player in return. How about Larry Fitzgerald?
 

Jimbodandy

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This is one of those topics that is purely a hypothetical. A fun little thought exercise. No need for every post here to be serious. If it were me I'd hang up the phone laughing but let's pretend everything has a price and Bill is looking for a fresh start somewhere warmer maybe as he gets closer to retirement age. I'd start the bidding at 3 first round picks, probably some day 2 picks and maybe some day 3's just to use as trade chips. I'd also maybe want a player in return. How about Larry Fitzgerald?
Too low, although perhaps that depends on the "player in return".

I set mine above at five firsts and five optional upgrades of firsts. That's ridiculous, but that's where I am.
 

drbretto

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That man is priceless. There is literally no package good enough. When Bill Belichick leaves, the train is over. Maybe you get some momentum with all these draft picks and win another one or two, but it'll never be the same again.
 

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Unless I'm getting a great QB in return, I'm not trading him. Absent a generational defense, it's just too hard to reach a Super Bowl without either a great coach or a great QB. Letting go of BB without a great QB is jumping out of a plane without a parachute. I like watching football. I particularly like watching good football. I REALLY like watching my team play good football. As close to a guarantee as there is in the NFL, having BB on the sidelines guarantees that I'm going to be watching my team play good football. I'm not going to mess with that. I saw what Bobby Grier did with picks.
 

BaseballJones

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That man is priceless. There is literally no package good enough. When Bill Belichick leaves, the train is over. Maybe you get some momentum with all these draft picks and win another one or two, but it'll never be the same again.
Teams do win championships with other coaches. I'd demand 5 first rounders and $30 million with which to lure the next good coach. Maybe add in a player that could really help the team right now as well.
 

DourDoerr

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I'll add that I believe BB respects football history and his legacy and he's looking to carry on the tradition that he's worked very hard to build with this Patriots franchise. He found Jimmy G. and - if reports are correct - tried to also get Mayfield. Both players seem to have quite a bit of upside with the caveat that it's way too early to tell.

I have to believe BB will continue the search for the next franchise QB for the Patriots while he's here and that's too big a plus to let go. I'm not giving up that knowhow, insight and continuity for some picks so General Manager X can find a rookie QB to play under some unknown system.
 
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Oppo

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An impact defensive and offensive player both on cheap deals.

Then BB quits immediately and comes back due to a contract loophole.
 

Saints Rest

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Teams do win championships with other coaches. I'd demand 5 first rounders and $30 million with which to lure the next good coach. Maybe add in a player that could really help the team right now as well.
Josh McD on the staff is why I opined that 3 firsts would get it done for me. IOW, BB is worth 3 firsts more than Josh.
But since many other teams would be trying to replace their own dreck, most of whom are markedly worse than Josh, I think if I were the Owner of a team like Cinci or Buffalo or any of a number of other teams, I would be willing to go to 5.
 

InstaFace

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I'm having a hard time figuring out why I would name any price at all.

Draft picks can bust, even first rounders. Great players can get injured, or old, or not fit your scheme. Even franchise QBs aren't forever. The hardest damn thing in this game is getting a mastermind who can manage the cap, navigate player moves, manage the scheme, motivate the team, pick and delegate to a staff... it's a job that overwhelms workaholics, and burns out lifers like Kubiak. I think it's the most irreplaceable asset a team can have. Belichick never gets injured, takes No Days Off, and hasn't gone senile yet. Players come and go, coaches come and go, and the party goes on.

What good would first rounders be without someone to choose wisely with them, and weaponize what you get? There are so many teams out there, loaded with alleged talent, who crumble at the key moments because they're missing the right keys or focus or discipline, or which enter salary cap hell to keep the band together when they should have had the fortitude to cut bait. So we can take a bunch of first rounders, and assemble a more talented roster. Big whoop. The more talented roster got curb-stombed by the smarter coaching staff two weeks ago.

When that call comes in, I think I do what Belichick did when John Lynch, upon being informed that Garoppolo wasn't available, asked instead if Brady were available: I laugh and hang up the phone.
 

JMDurron

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A more interesting question might be “how many teams could you possibly trade Belichick to where he would not immediately retire after the trade?”

After his Cleveland experience and near miss of the Jets’ ownership inevitably screwing up whatever plans he tired to implement there, I’d imagine that Belichick only would consider a select few ownership situations to be worth coaching for at his age. I’d love to know which ones he would actually consider if such a situation were to somehow occur.
 

InstaFace

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Giants, I guess. But it's not a long list.

If he did retire right after the trade, the team would scream bloody murder and the commissioner would void the deal, so I'm not sure that's a fair consideration even in this hypothetical.
 

JMDurron

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Giants, I guess. But it's not a long list.

If he did retire right after the trade, the team would scream bloody murder and the commissioner would void the deal, so I'm not sure that's a fair consideration even in this hypothetical.
Right, obviously that would blow up the trade. It’s not really meant as a fair addition to the hypothetical, more like a separate hypothetical sparked by this one.
 

Red Averages

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I probably wouldn’t trade Steve and Brian Belichick for 2 first rounders given they are likely to keep Bill in town for a few extra years. (Btw - what an absolute shocker that trade would be from Bill)

Think of how many first rounders this team has lost in this era: ‘00, ‘09, ‘13, ‘16, ‘17. In addition to picking in the second half of the draft every year.
 

InstaFace

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Bill Belichick trading his own sons for a few first rounders would be the most Belichickian move ever. I frankly don't know how it hasn't happened yet - maybe he's just waiting for their asset value to peak.
 

Bergs

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I probably wouldn’t trade Steve and Brian Belichick for 2 first rounders given they are likely to keep Bill in town for a few extra years. (Btw - what an absolute shocker that trade would be from Bill)

Think of how many first rounders this team has lost in this era: ‘00, ‘09, ‘13, ‘16, ‘17. In addition to picking in the second half of the draft every year.
"Second half" undersells the shit out of it. More like "bottom 4 most years and bottom 8 the rest"...
 

DavidTai

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Saw this last week, putting it up now before I forget any further.

https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/coaching-matters

Relevant portion:
Bill Belichick
Using available data through 2016, the researchers found that New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick was 18 percent more likely to win a game (based on the quality of his opponent and home field advantage) than an average coach. While that isn’t the highest percentage of his peers, it is “extremely unusual” given his 17 seasons with the team.

Could Belichick be the luckiest coach in the NFL? The professors ran a simulation based on 10,000 hypothetical NFL games, and in only five cases would a coach with a 17-year tenure have Belichick’s same record.

“In that sense,” Berry and Fowler write, “we can strongly reject the null hypothesis that Belichick is no better than an average coach.”
The main paper itself is linked in the article.
 

McBride11

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I probably wouldn’t trade Steve and Brian Belichick for 2 first rounders given they are likely to keep Bill in town for a few extra years. (Btw - what an absolute shocker that trade would be from Bill)

Think of how many first rounders this team has lost in this era: ‘00, ‘09, ‘13, ‘16, ‘17. In addition to picking in the second half of the draft every year.
09 was spygate
16 deflateage
17 was cooks
Had to look up 2013 - trade with the Vikings for No. 52, 83, 102, and 229 overall. Funny enough that first round pick ended up being CP.
I can't tease out the 2000 draft, the Wiki page is lacking.
 

PC Drunken Friar

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09 was spygate
16 deflateage
17 was cooks
Had to look up 2013 - trade with the Vikings for No. 52, 83, 102, and 229 overall. Funny enough that first round pick ended up being CP.
I can't tease out the 2000 draft, the Wiki page is lacking.
That #229 pick had a funny history... Minnesota gave it to NE. NE traded it to TB along with Jeff Demps for LGBT. TB then traded the pick back to Minnesota.
 

Phil Plantier

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I was following Brian Tyms on Twitter, but he recently deleted his account, maybe once the AAF folded.

Also: Rohan Davey.
 

Dick Drago

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Loved Tyms—his presence on the sidelines throughout the playoffs and his enthusiasm was awesome in ‘14.
 

simplyeric

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Saw this last week, putting it up now before I forget any further.

https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/coaching-matters

Relevant portion:


The main paper itself is linked in the article.
That paper is a work of staggering genius.

In that sense,” Berry and Fowler write, “we can strongly reject the null hypothesis that Belichick is no better than an average coach.”
Way to go mount on a limb there!

Ok I’ll take the hypothetical slightly sideways: let’s say (as someone noted above) that BB really wants to relocate, for whatever personal reason. Maybe (complete bullshit hypothetical) he thinks ‘my job is done here, I want to start something new’. Who cares why...I’m just pretending he wants it.

1st order of business: outside of the conference. Not even just the division.

Second: I would actually want him to do well. So I’d take like 4-5 1st rounders but every other year.
I’d also make it such that it was that team’s 1st that year, plus whatever additional picks would make the 1st rounder equivalent to a top 5 pick. (If BB does well, we don’t want just a late 1sr rounder, so it would be a late first and a second, for example.)
Third: we would retain an option for joint preseason training during his tenure.

Fourth: at least twice per year, BB has to do post game conferences for the Patriots (obviously unrealistic but fun to imagine him having to, in good faith, talk about the team to the press).

Fifth: one existing impact player. Not so much an offensive star, but an elite pass rusher or something. Not sure why I feel the need for it to be one thing not another.

Sixth: he has to promise to start Tim Tebow during his first season. Just the one season, and everyone (ownership, etc) would just have to live with it. Absurd? Surely. Fun? I would hope so!

It’s possible that I’m just being silly with 4-6...
 

Nick Kaufman

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I posted because there may be people here thinking, “well they traded Jon Gruden (to Tampa) and BB (to NE), so why not? The simple answer is, they wanted to be traded and cooperated in the deal.

One can only imagine BB’s reaction to Kraft:

“Let me get this straight — you want to monetize me? You paid X for this franchise, and it’s worth 10X today — and YOU want to monetize ME?”
Let's be honest here. If Bellichick was in Kraft shoes, he would trade himself if the price was right because he would think that he was overrated and he would get good value in return.

From my perspective however, Bellichick is untradeable because he's invaluable. Jerry Krause infamously said that organizations win championships and he got lambasted for it while making Michael Jordan furious. Krause was right thouigh. I ll take it one step further. Good management is the no 1 reason behind a team's success. Good players cannot succeed if the people at the top aren't good at maximizing the value of the money they spend or if they are incapable of finding the right people for the right job and having them work harmoniously.

That's why you never trade Bellichick. He's the best at building an NFL team and there's no player talent that can come close to being equal to that sort of talent.