The Unbalanced 40-man Roster

Buzzkill Pauley

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After looking up a few things in response to a question about Tzu-Wei Lin in another thread, I started looking into the 40-man roster in an effort to make this very slow offseason go a little faster. And that’s when it struck me — the Red Sox 40-man roster is severely unbalanced right now.

There are 23 pitchers, 10 of whom are RH relievers. That leaves room for only 17 hitters, 3 of whom are essentially redundant LHH backup infielders.

But of greatest concern, the Sox 40-man only has 2 position players with options (one of whom is limited to playing a fairly poor 1B). Seriously, that's all -- Lin and Travis get the Pawtucket shuttle all to themselves.

The following list has easily-optioned (not a starting/everyday player, no player permission needed, and no waiver process or roster move necessary) players listed in bold; meanwhile, those guys likely to be transferred to the disabled list before Opening Day are placed in parentheses.

9 - STARTING PITCHERS
LHP (5): Sale, Price, Pomeranz, (Rodriguez), Beeks
RHP (4): Porcello, Wright, Velazquez, Shepherd

14 - BULLPEN PITCHERS
LHP (4): Johnson, Elias, Scott, Jerez
RHP (10): Kimbrel, Kelly, (Thornburg), Hembree, Smith, Workman, Barnes, Maddox, Taylor, Buttrey

17 - POSITION PLAYERS
CATCHERS (2): Vazquez, Leon

INFIELDERS (8): Ramirez, (Pedroia), Moreland, Bogaerts, Devers, Marrero, Hernandez, Travis

OUTFIELDERS (4): Betts, Bradley, Benintendi, Brentz

UTILITY (3): Holt, Swihart, Lin

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So yeah, this is as thin as I can ever remember the Sox positional depth ever getting at AAA.

And honestly, it looks like it's only going to get worse when Martinez is signed. Sure, Taylor is the easy choice for DFA. But afterwards, I don't see how any more than three from among Hanley, Holt, Swihart, Brentz, and Marrero could possibly all fit onto the 25-man when March rolls into April, and choosing which three remain isn't as easy as it appears at first.

The worst bat, Marrero, is precisely the guy they need around to provide late-inning defense for Devers. Hanley is a vastly better hitter than Brentz but they might be able to get enough salary relief in trade to make it worth it to trade him (at least clearing the $10.5MM needed to re-consider Rusney Castillo as an actual "break glass in emergency" option), plus he might cause Cora headaches if assigned a part-time role. And while the Sox may be grooming Swihart into a sort-of Inge/Doumit clone, jettisoning Brock Holt would take quite a leap of faith when Pedroia's expected to be on the shelf (and needing extra rest even when he returns).

Do the Sox need to acquire yet another reliever -- except this time a lefty with more experience and better stuff than Robby Scott or Roenis Elias? Is it necessary to keep so many RH relievers on hand that the positional depth becomes this threadbare? Who would you trade off or DFA to correct the imbalanced and unwieldy roster (Brentz and Holt are probably first to go, for me). Or am I over-reacting, and today's "swiss-army knife" super-utility players make this an overblown concern? I'm not saying the Red Sox need to find the next Chase d'Arnaud, but....maybe they do.
 

simplicio

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Hernandez has 2 options remaining.

I've been thinking about this same issue. My guess is Elias is first to go; I know they're thin on LHR but he really hasn't showed much. After that they probably want to get to ST to see how Brentz/Holt/Swihart look before making other moves.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Hernandez has 2 options remaining.

I've been thinking about this same issue. My guess is Elias is first to go; I know they're thin on LHR but he really hasn't showed much. After that they probably want to get to ST to see how Brentz/Holt/Swihart look before making other moves.
Hernandez was tabbed by DDski as the likely starting 2B to open the season, due to Pedroia’s knee surgery, which is why I didn’t mark him easily optionable.

Even if Hernandez loses the inside track on that role, though, someone will have to do the job. Maybe Holt, maybe Lin... but regardless, the Sox won’t have whoever is playing 2B everyday getting swapped in and out from the PawSox.

Plus, after Pedroia comes back, and given the severity of micro-fracture repair surgery, I have to wonder if the smart money would be on keeping a 5-man bench around to give him and other players more rest throughout the season.

By that point of the season, the bullpen should have sifted out most of the least trustworthy options.
 

chawson

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It’s been said before, but I can’t see them carrying both Leon and Swihart past ST. This year’s our last chance to see if Swihart can stick, and Sandy’s not special enough to blow that opportunity cost.

Sandy settled for a lower arb salary than estimated—$1.95M—and he’s worth that in a vacuum. He handles lefties well, and would fit as a sort of platoon-plus backstop with a team that’s trying to develop young pitching and stop the running game.

That’s the A’s, where he’d be a better option to pair with Bruce Maxwell than Josh Phegley. I’d be thrilled if we could turn him into Liam Hendriks, who’s in his second year of arb, and is getting crowded out of a pen full of guys out of options.
 
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Plympton91

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Chandler Sheppard isn't a SP, he was a reliever the past 2 seasons at AA and AAA. I'd DFA him, Buttrey, or Jerez before I dropped Taylor.

I also have to think that if Holt is healthy, he's the starting 2B, and if he's not healthy, he really should have been DFA'ed.

Agree with Chawson that they will keep Swihart no matter what; this team is good about recognizing sunk costs, but the absolute squander of his value would be a big poison pill to chew on without giving him at least one more shot after Farrell screwed up his entire career because he dropped a popup once.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Agree that Swihart is likely to make the team. If Leon is not the one to go to make room, than I think it will be Holt. Healthy Marco > healthy Brock, so I think Marco would get the starting 2B slot if they're both healthy. I don't know that they could get a lot for Brock right now due to concerns about his concussion issues, but if he's healthy in ST then maybe they can get something for him.
 

chawson

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I think Marrero’s the guy to go.

The only function he has is to be a defensive replacement at third base only. That was more valuable when we were invested in Panda recovering value.

Devers may indeed need late-inning defensive help, but Holt, Lin, and Marco can each do that if healthy, and all of them have better bats. Even Chavis may be ready to hang later in the season.
 

shaggydog2000

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I think Marrero’s the guy to go.

The only function he has is to be a defensive replacement at third base only. That was more valuable when we were invested in Panda recovering value.

Devers may indeed need late-inning defensive help, but Holt, Lin, and Marco can each do that if healthy, and all of them have better bats. Even Chavis may be ready to hang later in the season.
I would think Marrero would definitely be on the way out (he's out of options and not as good as the other utility guys), Lin would be kept around (in Pawtucket) as a potential SS fill-in if Xander got hurt, and one of Marco or Brockholt! gets kept as the utility guy. I would favor Marco right now, but Holt still has an option according to Soxprospects, so they could keep him in the system. I bet it will come down to how Holt looks in Spring training. Even if they have Holt, they still need a 4th outfielder type. Brentz is a maybe if he has a strong spring, but you'd think they might sign someone with experience there if prices come down on a decent player.
 

SoxFromThe207

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I'm thinking the easiest to let go of on this list are:

Heath Hembree / Brock Holt / Ben Taylor

The rest of the bunch is relatively young and has available options. The Sox know what they have in Hembree which is a straight mid-90's fastball with average secondary pitches.

I'm hoping Holt will improve after his battle with Vertigo, but that isn't a guarantee. Taylor earned the nod last year, but Maddox passed him last year.
 

chawson

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I'm thinking the easiest to let go of on this list are:

Heath Hembree / Brock Holt / Ben Taylor

The rest of the bunch is relatively young and has available options. The Sox know what they have in Hembree which is a straight mid-90's fastball with average secondary pitches.

I'm hoping Holt will improve after his battle with Vertigo, but that isn't a guarantee. Taylor earned the nod last year, but Maddox passed him last year.
Hembree took a major leap forward in swStr% last year, posting a semi-elite rate of 14.9. I’m sure that’s due to being asked to throw a lot more sliders than in 2016, but it’s real. FWIW, his fastball velocity bumped up 1.5 mph too.

He may be the sixth-best righty in the pen next year, but he’s not worth nothing.
 

SoxFromThe207

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Hembree took a major leap forward in swStr% last year, posting a semi-elite rate of 14.9. I’m sure that’s due to being asked to throw a lot more sliders than in 2016, but it’s real. FWIW, his fastball velocity bumped up 1.5 mph too.

He may be the sixth-best righty in the pen next year, but he’s not worth nothing.
Great point - thanks for the stats! I just find him to be a clone of what already exists in that bullpen. Lots of fastball / sliders.

Joe Kelly / Kimbrel live off of that two pitch sequence. Austin Maddox emerged because he's more fastball / change / curve - different than the stereotype in that bullpen.
 

chawson

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Great point - thanks for the stats! I just find him to be a clone of what already exists in that bullpen. Lots of fastball / sliders.

Joe Kelly / Kimbrel live off of that two pitch sequence. Austin Maddox emerged because he's more fastball / change / curve - different than the stereotype in that bullpen.
I wouldn’t say Austin Maddox has emerged. Played, maybe.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I think Marrero’s the guy to go.

The only function he has is to be a defensive replacement at third base only. That was more valuable when we were invested in Panda recovering value.

Devers may indeed need late-inning defensive help, but Holt, Lin, and Marco can each do that if healthy, and all of them have better bats. Even Chavis may be ready to hang later in the season.

If he made the team, Marrero would undoubtedly be the primary back-up at SS and 2B as well as 3B. Lin could also do this, but is likely to be sent down because he has options.

If Marco is starting the season at 2B for Pedey, then I think it's Holt vs. Marrero. Marrero's much better defensively, so it may come down to how much they each show with the bat in ST - or how much they can get for either in a trade.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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I wouldn’t say Austin Maddox has emerged. Played, maybe.
And that’s the problem with the roster. Lots of guys have played, but the Sox still have quite a young team, when compared with their previous three World Series winning clubs.

So many of the players involved in these assessments have some MLB experience, but not enough of them are at the “we know what to expect” stage of their careers.

Which is fine; after all, I’d have pegged Houston exactly the same way before the start of last season. But it makes anticipating the season and predicting roster moves, as a fan, quite difficult.

The Sox seem to need to add more optionable position players, but going over the positions in reality, there’s double or triple coverage provided already, because of existing player versatility. No 5th OF able to play CF? No problem because Beni can shift over to cover it!

That versatility is one reason I hope Swihart sticks on the team and isn’t traded. Keeping him as a bench bat means that every position is triple-deep covered with only 17 players. It’s pretty amazing, even if there’s not much bat expected from Travis or Lin. And speaking of not much bat...it’s the two catchers whose late-inning at bats seem to me most likely to need a HanRam injection this season. Keeping Swihart on the team as a (hopefully) perfectly cromulent 3rd catcher should allow Leon and Vazquez to both get adequate rest, but also allow Cora to pinch-hit in a high-leverage spot during times when one or both of them is scuffling.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
That versatility is one reason I hope Swihart sticks on the team and isn’t traded. Keeping him as a bench bat means that every position is triple-deep covered with only 17 players.
I would argue that if you're going to keep Swihart as 3rd catcher, that means the utility guy almost has to be Holt or Lin, because you want someone who can play the OF as well--unless you do go with a 5-man bench. Either that, or you jettison Brentz and go with basically an all-C/UT bench: i.e., Leon/Swihart/Marrero/Holt (or Leon/Swihart/Marrero/Lin). Hernandez becomes the odd man out unless he can play the OF as well. Which I suppose he could, if they made that a priority.
 
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Buzzkill Pauley

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I would argue that if you're going to keep Swihart as 3rd catcher, that means the utility guy almost has to be Holt or Lin, because you want someone who can play the OF as well--unless you do go with a 5-man bench. Either that, or you jettison Brentz and go with basically an all-C/UT bench: i.e., Leon/Swihart/Marrero/Holt (or Leon/Swihart/Marrero/Lin). Hernandez becomes the odd man out unless he can play the OF as well. Which I suppose he could, if they made that a priority.
It all depends if Martinez is signed. If he is, then you have a backup LF in him, and a backup-backup LF in Swihart. That frees up Benintendi to play CF.

Regardless, so long as both Hanley and Moreland are on the roster, it’s a mess.