The Totally Non Official Precursor To The Official Predictions Thread

[Rasputin]

Someone mentioned the prediction thread in one of the other threads and I was bored and holy crap do we need something to talk about so...
 
How 'bout them Red Sox?
 
The offense looks good. Potentially very good. Some of the folks in the prediction business think it's the best offense going. I think that would take some things breaking right, but hey, things break right every now and then.
 
The pitching doesn't have the high upside, but does probably have depth especially later in the season when Owens and/or Rodriguez could be available. Buchholz was terribad last year, but tremendous the year before. Will the groundball strategy work?
 
What thinkest thou, SoSH?

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

I voted 85-90 wins based on almost nothing but my gut instinct. I'll feel more comfortable making a prediction once I get out and see the guys in action over the next month or so.

 

[pokey_reese]

I voted 90-95 games, but I recognize that there is a little bit of the hometown fan involved in that prediction. If this were a neutral team to me I would probably have said 85-90, simply because of all the uncertainty at this time of year, and the fact that not that many teams will win 90+ games. That said, I am a very big believer in the approach taken this off season, and I probably have higher hopes for the rotation than most. While we can debate what the intention of the FO was in assembling this group, I do believe that either way these ground ball specialists fit Fenway better than almost any park, in part under the assumption that they will reduce the number of doubles allowed.
 
I think that the offense will be very good (as most people do), in part because of the depth that is causing all of the hand-wringing right now about who plays where and who goes to the minors/gets traded. As has been pointed out, almost every player has a potential replacement who should be able to offer far more than "replacement level" value, in the case not only of injury but also underperformance.
 
Depending on how the initial roster shakes out, the PawSox might be invincible with that rotation, plus Garin, Swihart, etc., and a combination of guys who don't make the big league team out of ST like Mookie (possibly), Craig, Nava, etc..
 
I'm just talking myself right into 100 win territory...

 

[Rasputin]

 
 
I'm just talking myself right into 100 win territory...

 
You know you want to.

 

[C4CRVT]

Thanks RAS!!!
 
I'm high on this team. I went with 97 wins because I think this offense is going to flat-out rake and has great depth. The Defense is going to be above average. The bullpen is always a crapshoot but I feel like they're going to be able to bolster the pitching as the season progresses.

 

[Rasputin]

Thanks RAS!!!
 
I'm high on this team. I went with 97 wins because I think this offense is going to flat-out rake and has great depth. The Defense is going to be above average. The bullpen is always a crapshoot but I feel like they're going to be able to bolster the pitching as the season progresses.

 
If you think of it, the Sox could bring up a very talented, highly thought of left hander while also dealing one away with Devers and Margot for someone very good.
 
I really like the potential for mid season upgrades.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I'm going with 90-95 wins, specifically 91, which I think will win the AL East. They will have one of the best offenses in the game, their starting rotation should be league average at worst and the bullpen, while not without risk, should be better than average. That's a recipe for winning a lot of games in a weak division.

 

[Plympton91]

At this point, I wouldn't be willing to say anything more definitive than 85 wins, give or take 8 wins or so. There's a lot of promise in the offense, but a lot of unknowns. There's not a lot of depth in the starting pitching, and they are probably at best middle of the pack in expected value, with dreams of winning anything other than the AL Least hinging on bounce back seasons from both Buchholz and Masterson. There's also no depth in the bullpen, and no clear bullpen ace in front of Uehara, who is 39 years old. Spring training is more important than usual, as we will see how Craig and Victorino are moving around the field and whether they wince after every swing, as well as whether Buchholz has control of his changeup, and if Masterson has recovered his lost velocity. Plus, we'll get to presumably see the kids and reclamation projects competing to create a competent bullpen, and whether their stuff is playing up in that role.

The Orioles to me should still be odds on favorites in the East, with the return of Machado and Weiters compensating for the loss of Cruz. Then the Red Sox and Blue Jays about even, with the Yankees a viable long-shot if they get a good draw from the injury lottery, and I think Tampa Bay still might have the best rotation in the Division, especially if Moore comes back quickly, which has to count for something.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

90-95 wins, very likeable, and a hell of a lot of fun to watch.  I can't wait.

 

[Rasputin]

There's not a lot of depth in the starting pitching, and they are probably at best middle of the pack in expected value, with dreams of winning anything other than the AL Least hinging on bounce back seasons from both Buchholz and Masterson. There's also no depth in the bullpen, and no clear bullpen ace in front of Uehara, who is 39 years old.
 

 
I don't think you can really say the Sox lack depth of pitching. The ceiling is not all that high for this bunch, but the depth is there. 
 
Porcello, Miley, Buchholz, Kelly, Masterson, Workman, Barnes, and Wright should be ready from the get go with Owens, Johnson, Rodriguez, and Escobar joining after a couple months, and they should all be capable of 5th starter level performance.

 

[tims4wins]

I'm in the upper 80s group. Offense near the top of the league, pitching somewhere in the upper bottom half (thinking 8th-10th), pen costs them a few games, they miss out on the division by 2-3 games.

 

[Fireball Fred]

I went with 85-90; I really like this team, but there are a lot of question marks. Even where there's depth ... some games could be lost while sorting through the outfielders, especially if guys who look great in spring training struggle in the regular season. The good news is that 85 or so is what I guessed for '13. 

 

[ivanvamp]

I'm going with 90-95 wins, specifically 91, which I think will win the AL East. They will have one of the best offenses in the game, their starting rotation should be league average at worst and the bullpen, while not without risk, should be better than average. That's a recipe for winning a lot of games in a weak division.

 
I was going to say this almost word for word (including the 91 win prediction), and then I saw that you already said it.
 
So………..what Snodgrass said.  

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I actually suspect they will win very close to 90 games, either way. I chose to go glass half empty this time and say 85-90, partly because I figure at some point or other they have to have a season that is neither dominant nor awful. I think they'll contend for the division, and very likely win it, in a year when the spread between the worst and best teams in the division will be quite narrow.

 

[luckysox]

94, win the AL East and will make at least the ALCS.
 
I think there could be a struggle out of the gate and media and fans will freak out, but when the weather warms up in May, this team will turn the winter of our discontent into the summer of our dreams.

 

[Dan to Theo to Ben]

92 Wins. Win the tiebreaker for WC2, win the WC game, win the LDS, lose the LCS.

 

[theapportioner]

88 wins. Offense will be as advertised. Pitching will be worse than advertised. Late callups for Owens and Rodriguez will give us hope.

 

[Buckner's Boots]

90 is my actual number. There were two options that covered my number, and I chose the less optimistic. Call it a hangover.

 

[Rasputin]

90 is my actual number. There were two options that covered my number, and I chose the less optimistic. Call it a hangover.

 
Motherfucker, fixed the overlap.

 

[Detts]

I went 85-89, which should be doable with the craptastic AL East.
 
I'm guessing Ras went with 100 again.

 

[nvalvo]

85-89, solidly above .500. Great offense, acceptable rotation, respectable bullpen, deep bench: it all adds up to a pretty good team.
 
The potential to add to the pitching staff mid-season shouldn't be discounted, though. So there's a higher than normal chance that this team could really make some noise if they show enough in the first half to convince Ben to cash in some chips. 

 

[Rasputin]

I went 85-89, which should be doable with the craptastic AL East.
 
I'm guessing Ras went with 100 again.

 
I actually went with 90-94. Way too many things have to go right this year for me to be really talking about 100 wins. Mind you if Castillo, Betts, and Bogaerts have kind of season we think they're capable of, and if one of Owens/Rodriguez looks really good after replacing Masterson, I'm going to be full on insane about 100 in 2016.

 

[Doctor G]

I went 85-89 based on a solid comeback by Masterson. My main concern is the lack of depth in the bullpen especially in the set-up role. i think the rotation will be a pleasant surprise even without an ace. I'm expecting EdRod to be a leading candidat for Al rookie pitcher of the year.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

92 Wins. Win the tiebreaker for WC2, win the WC game, win the LDS, lose the LCS.

 
That's pretty bold. Last year there were two division winners with only 90 wins. The wild card teams had 89, 88, 88 and 88 wins. In 2013 it was a little more competitive with the wild card teams winning 94, 92, 92, 90. Having three non-division winners with 92 wins is probably expecting a bit too much. Two wild card teams at 92? That's at least plausible. Then consider that this means at least one team besides the Red Sox with 93 or more wins. That means one of Baltimore New York or Tampa (or two I suppose) winning 92 games which I think is probably very unlikely, or two teams out of the Central and West winning 92 games after the division winners.
 
Let's assume the Blue Jays win 93. That means the AL will probably have 6 teams at 92 wins ore more. That hasn't happened since 2002.

 

[Rasputin]

I went 85-89 based on a solid comeback by Masterson. My main concern is the lack of depth in the bullpen especially in the set-up role. i think the rotation will be a pleasant surprise even without an ace. I'm expecting EdRod to be a leading candidat for Al rookie pitcher of the year.

 
If Masterson has a comeback, how is Rodriguez going to get the starts to be rookie of the year? Buchholz implodes?

 

[67WasBest]

Voted 90 to 95 because of where predictions have them today, and the assumption BC will upgrade the roster at some point.

 

[drbretto]

I say 100 wins exactly.

I think they're up to something. The money ball era wasn't about stats, it was about finding value where it was overlooked. These days everyone knows the stats, so the Sox are looking deeper.

They didn't just find the best offense money can buy, they found all different types of hitters. There won't be any more 10-1 wins followed by two losses because they ran into a couple of young lefties. This offense will score 5 runs a game about as consistently as any team has in recent memory. This isn't the 2003 red Sox, but it's not 2003. They can lead the league with 800 runs.

Why is that? Because of the new, lower strike zone. It may change in 2016 or later, but ground ball pitchers throw 'em low and now batters have to swing at them. Add in a much improved understanding of defensive analysis, which I can't imagine the Red Sox not being at the forefront of, and what looks like an average defense on paper is going to make the pitching staff look like they're all having career years.

These moves only make sense if that's what they are doing. Even trying to extend Farrell supports that. He's Franconian in his willingness to follow the team's philosophy and direction and we already know he loves the shift. I don't see him having any problems with positioning everyone differently depending on who is at bat or even the count.

Everything about this team, to me, screams being better than they are supposed to be on paper. They are a step ahead of everyone. It's downright Belichickian.

100 wins, one 15+ game win streak, at least two 10 game win streaks and one 4 game losing streak all season long.

 

[Rasputin]

I'm with you on the idea that they're going to be better than they look, but a hundred games is a lot of better.

Of course, it is only two games a month.

 

[drbretto]

Well, I'm also an optimist.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
If Masterson has a comeback, how is Rodriguez going to get the starts to be rookie of the year? Buchholz implodes?

 
Also, with this lineup, if the rotation is a pleasant surprise and Masterson has a comeback and EdRod has a kickass rookie year, how on earth don't they crack 90 wins?

 

[Rasputin]

 
Also, with this lineup, if the rotation is a pleasant surprise and Masterson has a comeback and EdRod has a kickass rookie year, how on earth don't they crack 90 wins?

If everything good happens, we're looking at a whole lot more than 90 wins.

 

[koufax37]

94. While I don't like our rotation in October, they are plenty talented and reliable to win games all summer while the offense is putting up 5 or 6 runs. Xander with the year under his belt and the spotlight off is going to exceed expectations. Hanley and Panda are in the good part of what will finish as not great contracts, and you will see Good Pedey again and still pretty good Papi.

 

[benhogan]

90-94 wins
 
1. Vasquez/Hannigan framing + stronger positional defense makes this starting staff look better then most of the experts predicted
2. AAA starting pitchers play significant roles in the pen by August
3. Prospect depth lets us deal for upgrades by mid-season
4. Mookie delivers the goods
5. Koji and Papi continue to defy age related logic

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

I see the potential for greatness here, and I like each of the moves (and non-moves) they've made on paper. But I don't feel certain about much of any of it. Will Bogaerts build off of his strong September (which itself carried a few red flags)? Will Victorino or Craig play well enough to justify keeping their lineup positions, or, failing that, if they do not, will the team move on from them quickly enough? Can Castillo sustain his performance over a full season? Will Betts get a roster spot? Will Sandoval adjust well to his new team? Will Hanley be able to play his new position? Will Pedroia and Napoli rebound from injury-marred 2014s? And this doesn't even get into the rotation, which most of the offseason concerns have surrounded. I do think they have solutions to some of the potential problems in-house - I think Barnes and Rodriguez/Owens (whichever one doesn't get traded) will be called up midseason if they need help from the bullpen or rotation, respectively. All of this is enough to temper my expectations into the 85-88 win range. 
 
That said, I don't think there's any powerhouse AL East team, so that might be enough to win them the division. I don't think there's any powerhouse AL team at all, actually. I could see seven or eight teams bunched around the 85-win mark (I recognize this might be mathematically impossible, but you get the idea). 

 

[pockmeister]

90 wins, which turns out to be enough to win a weakish AL East.  ALCS is as far as the starting pitching can take the team, losing in 6 games.
 
Outfield depth turns into a key asset to cover for inevitable injuries.  Panda is enough of an improvement of WMB (in terms of hitting and personality) to keep the haters at bay for this season at least.  Hanley converts effortlessly to LF and stays healthy and productive all year, looking like a bargain by the season end.  Xander and Mookie deliver on potential and drive a powerful offense with acceptable defense.  
 
Porcello thrives and the rest of the starting rotation is generally solid but unspectacular, with a trade-deadline upgrade for an ace-level expiring contract starter a welcome addition later in the season.  Bullpen is below average with Koji's arm dropping off before August and no clear replacement stepping up.

 

[Doctor G]

If Masterson has a comeback, how is Rodriguez going to get the starts to be rookie of the year? Buchholz implodes?

I have serious concerns about Buchholz ability to be effective and healthy.

I went with 89 based on concerns about bullpen.

 

[johnnywayback]

I voted 90-94, which represents a slight inflation from their true talent level because I think the rest of the AL East is going to be hot garbage this year.  I think this team has a high floor, I really do -- there's enough depth that I can't imagine them bottoming out.

 

[ookami7m]

88-89 with concerns about Buchholz and the young staff getting off to a solid start. The offense will lead us. 

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Also voted 90-94 .. probably 91 wins .. too much uncertainty in the pitching staff - both the starters and the pen - to predict much more. Although, if things break right they could be upper 90s.

 

[lxt]

I think I've already said enough on this subject to get me into more debates and a few sanctions. But what the hell. I think Rasputin and I have already had a bit of this discussion on the "Offense" thread.
 
Again the offense is balanced and there is depth, maybe even a little too much. The defense is solid and I think after a few shaky starts will settle in and do fine. Once again there is depth everywhere. The staff does not have the glorified "Ace" but it's a solid group and when they are on their game they can be devastating. Can I say it once more there is depth.
 
There is the potential for Rasputin's 100 wins but I think they'll settle in around 94 wins. Enough for a guaranteed playoff spot and the potential to take the division. Baseball is a lot tighter in its distribution of talent and I think there are few teams capable of 100 wins. Who would've thought San Diego would do what they did? Look at who was in the series? The Sox are solid and should make the playoffs. If all goes well they can capture the division. If the baseball Gods are kind and once again wear their Red Sox caps they'll bring us another World Series.
 
How's that for a prediction, something, nothing and more than enough hot air.

 

[EricFeczko]

I voted 90-94 wins, I think they will be around 94/95 wins, so I flipped a coin to determine what bin it should be in.
 
I think the offense may be an outlier this year; I see them operating at about 15 percent better than league average by rate, but with no weaknesses in the lineup. I can see us scoring 800/850 runs this year.
 
The starters are a bit of concern, though we may have potentially capitalized on a trend where low strikes are being called more frequently. Coupled with good framing abilities, we might see a better than average pitching staff, but we may not.  I could see us letting up anything from 600/750 runs. Taking the middle values for runs allowed and the smaller value for runs scored (800 would be higher than anyone last year), we'd have a differential of 125 runs. According to the pythgorean theorem, this would translate to about 94.6 wins.
 
Of course, the range on this is huge, from 86 wins to 108 wins. If the plan for the starters leads to breakout performances from Porcello and Miley (e.g. the combined fielding/hitting leads to 80 percent chance of winning a given start) , I can see how a 100 win team is possible (though not probable).

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

In light of the Moncada news, I would like to adjust my 2015 win prediction from 91 to 91 with a few trips to Portland and Pawtucket.

 

[dynomite]

Co-sign.

(Great post by Feczko, too)

I see the 2015 Sox a little bit like the 2014 Tigers, who scored 750 runs but allowed 700. I also fear a number of injuries to the 30+ crew (Papi, Hanley, Napoli, Koji, Vic Torino, etc.) which I think could prevent the team from winning consistently enough to win 94+ games.

 

[lxt]

I voted 90-94 wins, I think they will be around 94/95 wins, so I flipped a coin to determine what bin it should be in.
 
I think the offense may be an outlier this year; I see them operating at about 15 percent better than league average by rate, but with no weaknesses in the lineup. I can see us scoring 800/850 runs this year.
 
The starters are a bit of concern, though we may have potentially capitalized on a trend where low strikes are being called more frequently. Coupled with good framing abilities, we might see a better than average pitching staff, but we may not.  I could see us letting up anything from 600/750 runs. Taking the middle values for runs allowed and the smaller value for runs scored (800 would be higher than anyone last year), we'd have a differential of 125 runs. According to the pythgorean theorem, this would translate to about 94.6 wins.
 
Of course, the range on this is huge, from 86 wins to 108 wins. If the plan for the starters leads to breakout performances from Porcello and Miley (e.g. the combined fielding/hitting leads to 80 percent chance of winning a given start) , I can see how a 100 win team is possible (though not probable).

Wow! Take a look at the "Offense" thread posting 32. There is a tad more detail that agrees with your analysis. Your are correct in that if the Sox score 800 runs it would be the highest based on last years numbers (LAA 773). Oakland had the most significant run differential at 153. All teams with a run differential of 100+ were in the playoffs (Oakland (88), LAA (98), LAD (94), Baltimore (96) & Washington (96)).

 

[lxt]

In light of the Moncada news, I would like to adjust my 2015 win prediction from 91 to 91 with a few trips to Portland and Pawtucket.

Better hurry to Pawtucket ... see "PawSox plan on leaving Pawtucket" thread

 

[Al Zarilla]

In light of the Moncada news, I would like to adjust my 2015 win prediction from 91 to 91 with a few trips to Portland and Pawtucket.

I thought you were going to up your projected wins because of guys looking over their shoulder (not at Moncada this year of course) and working harder. I just think a "goddam, this team is serious and I better not slack off at all or I'll be replaced" mentality is going to prevail.  

 

[brs3]

90-94, based on how many they'll need to clinch a playoff spot/how many are thrown away to give rest/line up the rotation.

 

[Koufax]

I voted 80 - 84 because I am a miserable human being and a perpetual pessimist.  However, the mediocre starting rotation, the injury-prone right fielder, the aging DH, the unproven CF, the slight-hitting catcher, the rickety SS, the grossly fat 3B and the on-the-back-nine 2b and LF add fuel to the fire lighting up the skies showing me the image of a team that is not a dramatic improvement over last year's squad.  Mookie Betts is the one bright spot, but he will have to struggle for playing time, at least until Shane gets injured and Craig flames out again.  Once again I have sold all of my 50+ tickets to this season's games and wish all the fans and patrons well, but I won't be there.
 
And there is no Santa Claus.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Once again I have sold all of my 50+ tickets to this season's games and wish all the fans and patrons well, but I won't be there.

 
First one off the bus!

 

[Mike Greenwall]

I voted 80 - 84 because I am a miserable human being and a perpetual pessimist.  However, the mediocre starting rotation, the injury-prone right fielder, the aging DH, the unproven CF, the slight-hitting catcher, the rickety SS, the grossly fat 3B and the on-the-back-nine 2b and LF add fuel to the fire lighting up the skies showing me the image of a team that is not a dramatic improvement over last year's squad.  Mookie Betts is the one bright spot, but he will have to struggle for playing time, at least until Shane gets injured and Craig flames out again.  Once again I have sold all of my 50+ tickets to this season's games and wish all the fans and patrons well, but I won't be there.
 
And there is no Santa Claus.

:speechless:
 
I went with 90-94, because not everything that may go wrong, will go wrong.