1 & 2: Probably big leaguers with the potential to be exceptional
1. Mookie Betts:
Mookie’s surge up the rankings over the past 2 years has been a hell of a fun thing to watch. His first season in Lowell, he showed an excellent approach, but had zero power. He also was a butcher at SS. A few people liked him as a sleeper, but to most, he was just another guy. The possible hurdles for Betts are that we don’t know where he will play, but he’s super athletic and well regarded at 2b. I think it’s reasonable to assume that the power won’t translate completely as he moves to the majors, but he should still be good for 10 homers a year. A guy with a plus hit skill, a ton of walks, in CF or middle infield, and below average but not nothing power is a hell of a player.
2. Blake Swihart:
I wish more people were making the argument for him being number 1. I think there is a real debate to be had here. Swihart was a highly regarded HS draftee who it was thought, might be able to stay at catcher, but might have to move off because of size and questions about defensive skills (he was seen as very athletic). Those questions have been answered. He’s a very good defensive catcher. There are some (I forget few, and it’s a definitely minority) people who’ve claimed that they prefer Swihart to Vazquez, despite Swihart not having as loud of a good as Vazquez’ arm. On offense, the only real knock you could hold against Swihart was that he hadn’t shown much in game power. This season, his ISO is .195, so that seems to not be a concern at present time. His BB rate has dropped a good bit this season, but he’s also in his first run at AA, and posting a wRC+ of 124, while 21 at the start of the season. Assuming he’s an above average defensive catcher, and the BB rate creeps back up, he could be a hell of a player.
3 & 4: Probably big leaguers with controversial talent levels
3. Henry Owens
Henry Owens has been statistically dominant at every stage of his minor league career, while being incredibly young compared to his competition at every step along the way. The knock on Owens is that while everyone agrees his changeup is excellent, there are questions about his curve ball and fastball command. Still very young, there’s some projection, but Owens sits in the low 90s. He’s very likely to get a cup of coffee sometime next season, but the questions about his stuff and command sound like the most likely projection is one of a back end starter. However, statistically, again, he’s looked a lot better than that. Some analysts have thrown a number 2 ceiling on him, which seems fair, given what he’s done at a young age. If he tightens up his command and adds a little velocity, the sky is the limit, but he could also fail to translate his success into the majors if he’s done developing.
4. Garin Cecchini
We all know why Cecchini is clustered here. The guy may not be a 3b (though reports are that he’s looking better there this season), and even if he is, he’ll likely max out at average. Additionally, he’s never shown any in game power. On the other hand, the guy can hit. Forgetting this season for a moment, he walked more than he struck out between high A and AA last season, while posting averages of .350 and .296 at both levels. His BB rate has always been high, even during his struggles this season. While I agree that his defense will likely hold him back from being excellent, I do think he can be a first division starter at 3B. I still think (hope?) the power will show up.
5-8 Pitching, Pitching, Pitching
5: Allen Webster
Has stuff we can all dream on. Also has poor command. Still relatively young, but his window may be closing as an SP, if he doesn’t break in next year. Could possibly be “effectively wild” if given the job. Could also be destined for the pen.
6: Anthony Ranaudo
Kind of fits the Owens/Cecchini category. Some evaluators have been very harsh over the past year and a half, while others think his recent success is real and a result of finally being healthy. He’s probably got the second lowest ceiling of the pitchers in this grouping (ahead of Johnson), but his command is better than Webster and he’s had more recent success than Barnes.
7: Matt Barnes
Excellent fastball, questionable secondary pitchers may lead to the bull pen (everyone in this group may ultimately be relievers). Still he’s been very durable, and before this year was raking up Ks. Both Ranaudo and he have excellent pedigrees, and both should be getting cups of coffee between this August and next season.
8: Brian Johnson
Our best power bat drafted in 2012 (not kidding that was a really shallow draft class). Johnson was seen as a low ceiling high floor pick with little project ability but a solid base of skills. When not getting liners off the face, he’s been really good. Additionally, he’s shown a little more velocity than what was reported at draft time (he sits in the low 90s, but occasionally airs it out at 95).
Exciting but far away 9 & 10
9: Michael Chavis:
Bat speed compared to Clint Fraizer. Projects to have average to better power. Seen as the second best pure hitter by some in the past draft class. Chavis may not be a SS but he’s reportedly more athletic than you’d think, given his somewhat stocky frame. Some evaluators think he would be an excellent 2B or 3B, others even floated the idea of him catching. Unlike last year’s first rounder, Trey Ball, Chavis is more of a polished product, despite also being a high schooler.
10. Rafael Devers
Swing gets comped to Cano. DSL statistics are generally meaningless, but he dominated, hitting more home runs than several teams in the league. Devers was promoted to the GCL. There are of course questions about where he ends up playing, reports are that he’s not a bad athlete, but he’s huge and likely to fill out to the point that he won’t be able to handle 3b. Obviously a move LF or 1b would put a ton of pressure on his bat, but his bat is why he got a huge bonus in the first place.
Guys who could be reasonably argued should be included instead of Chavis/Devers:
Marrero- his defense alone makes him a prospect. The bat hasn’t been bad this year, either
Vasquez-Will have a major league career. May be a back-up.
Margot- Holding his own in Greenville, despite being very young. Athletic centerfielder with plus speed and promising contact skills and possible more than below average power.
Rijo- Extremely young and holding his own in Greenville. Between Pedroia, Betts, Chavis, Rijo, and Coyle there are a lot of 2B in the org.
Coyle- Health has been an issues, also strikes out a lot. Still relatively young for his competition and still flashing some very nice power numbers.
Ball- Was a project when drafted. Struggling in Greenville, but that was expected. Ball is very high risk/high reward. What they liked about him is presumably still there and being worked on, but results will be slow, if they happen at all.
Guys I like beyond:
Kopeck- 14 draftee with big arm, messy mechanics
Ramos- Physically gifted raw OF who was finally putting it together this season before getting hurt
Callahan- Awful results, but like Ball, an intriguing project. Very young for his level
Gunkel- low ceiling guy when drafted who throws strikes. He’s been excellent. Future may still be in pen, but he’s more of a prospect than we could have hoped for
Asuaje- Hitting like crazy in Greenville. College draftee with no loud skills, but seems to do a lot of things well. Possible utility man, maybe second division starter one day.
Longhi- 1b/LF drafted and overslotted last year. He’s at Lowell and worth following
The entire Salem Rotation is interesting. Almost as interesting as the offense is boring.
