The Super Bowl Thread

[jablo1312]

The Falcons defense has a lot of young talent in the back 7 (the majority of ATL's secondary was drafted in the last 2 years, Devondre Campbell and Deion Jones are both rookies) and a clear star up front in Beasley along with a host of supporting veterans. I think they're a quick defense that plays well on turf.

They were also 22nd in weighted DVOA, they're extraordinarily young in the secondary, and I wouldn't say they've in dominated the playoffs. They've forced turnovers at key moments, which any Pats fan will tell you isn't always a recipe you can depend on for defensive success. I'm not being hypberbolic when I say I think the Pats should score on almost every possession against this defense. Whether they will or wont' remains to be seen (this team seems to get an infuriating case of the drops in the playoffs most years), but this is the weakest defense that the Pats will have played in a Super Bowl.

 

[pappymojo]

I'm going to Houston bitchezzzzz

Take me.

 

[Mooch]

The Falcons defense has a lot of young talent in the back 7 (the majority of ATL's secondary was drafted in the last 2 years, Devondre Campbell and Deion Jones are both rookies) and a clear star up front in Beasley along with a host of supporting veterans. I think they're a quick defense that plays well on turf.

They were also 22nd in weighted DVOA, they're extraordinarily young in the secondary, and I wouldn't say they've in dominated the playoffs. They've forced turnovers at key moments, which any Pats fan will tell you isn't always a recipe you can depend on for defensive success. I'm not being hypberbolic when I say I think the Pats should score on almost every possession against this defense. Whether they will or wont' remains to be seen (this team seems to get an infuriating case of the drops in the playoffs most years), but this is the weakest defense that the Pats will have played in a Super Bowl.

I live in Atlanta so I've seen a lot of the Falcons defense. The Atlanta secondary was getting torched deep all year until Quinn shifted from a base 3-Deep Zone package to more man-to-man. I'd expect the Pats to run a ton of motion, stacks, pick plays and White/Lewis matched up with linebackers.

 

[BaseballJones]

Tom Brady - 4 career games vs. Atlanta (obviously this is all fairly irrelevant to the upcoming SB, but it's interesting nonetheless):

11-4-01: 21-31, 250 yds, 3 td, 0 int
10-9-05: 22-27, 350 yds, 3 td, 1 int
9-27-09: 25-42, 277 yds, 1 td, 0 int
9-29-13: 20-31, 316 yds, 2 td, 0 int

TOT: 88-131 (67.2%), 1,193 yards (9.1 ypa), 9 td, 1 int, 115.7 rating

His worst game against them was in 2009, that 25-42, 277 yds, 1 td, 0 int performance. That's pretty amazing for a worst game.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Is that Matty Ice?


Pats haven't lost a SB to a team with an animal nickname since Da Bears

 

[dbn]

Is that Matty Ice?


Pats haven't lost a SB to a team with an animal nickname since Da Bears

2-0 in Super Bowls against birds!

 

[CantKeepmedown]

In Super Bowl history, the #1 scoring offense has matched up with the #1 scoring defense 7 times. The defense has won 6 of them. 1989 49ers were only #1 scoring offense to win

Year SB No. 1 Offense No. 1 Defense Result
1966 I Chiefs (32.0) Packers (11.6) Green Bay 35, Kansas City 10
1969 IV Vikings (27.1) Chiefs (12.6) Kansas City 23, Minnesota 7
1978 XIII Cowboys (24.0) Steelers (12.2) Pittsburgh 35, Dallas 31
1984 XIX Dolphins (32.1) 49ers (14.2) San Francisco 38, Miami 16
1989 XXIV 49ers (27.6) Broncos (14.1) San Francisco 55, Denver 10
1990 XXV Bills (26.8) Giants (13.3) New York 20, Buffalo 19
2013 XLVIII Broncos (37.9) Seahawks (14.4) Seattle 43 Denver 8

Sorry, that didn't space out the way I would've liked

 

[reggiecleveland]

Tom Brady - 4 career games vs. Atlanta (obviously this is all fairly irrelevant to the upcoming SB, but it's interesting nonetheless):

11-4-01: 21-31, 250 yds, 3 td, 0 int
10-9-05: 22-27, 350 yds, 3 td, 1 int
9-27-09: 25-42, 277 yds, 1 td, 0 int
9-29-13: 20-31, 316 yds, 2 td, 0 int

TOT: 88-131 (67.2%), 1,193 yards (9.1 ypa), 9 td, 1 int, 115.7 rating

His worst game against them was in 2009, that 25-42, 277 yds, 1 td, 0 int performance. That's pretty amazing for a worst game.

Brady has had a great career. How many teams does he not have great numbers against?

 

[BaseballJones]

Atlanta's defense in 2016:

Pre-bye (10 games)
- 28.3 points allowed
- 385.9 yards allowed
- 11 turnovers (1.1 per game)

Post-bye (8 games)
- 20.5 points allowed
- 344.5 yards allowed
- 15 turnovers (1.9 per game)

Clearly they have been playing a lot better since their bye week.

 

[southshoresoxfan]

In Super Bowl history, the #1 scoring offense has matched up with the #1 scoring defense 7 times. The defense has won 6 of them. 1989 49ers were only #1 scoring offense to win

Year SB No. 1 Offense No. 1 Defense Result
1966 I Chiefs (32.0) Packers (11.6) Green Bay 35, Kansas City 10
1969 IV Vikings (27.1) Chiefs (12.6) Kansas City 23, Minnesota 7
1978 XIII Cowboys (24.0) Steelers (12.2) Pittsburgh 35, Dallas 31
1984 XIX Dolphins (32.1) 49ers (14.2) San Francisco 38, Miami 16
1989 XXIV 49ers (27.6) Broncos (14.1) San Francisco 55, Denver 10
1990 XXV Bills (26.8) Giants (13.3) New York 20, Buffalo 19
2013 XLVIII Broncos (37.9) Seahawks (14.4) Seattle 43 Denver 8

Sorry, that didn't space out the way I would've liked

I wonder how many of those #1 Ds also had the #3 offense.

These teams were neck and neck in passer rating differential all year long w Pats edging them out. No shock they are both here and it should be a good game. Edge to NE for Brady and Bills experience in not only the big game but the prep weeks leading to it.

 

[jablo1312]

I remember 2 years ago spending 2 full weeks refreshing the initial Deflate-gate thread roughly 475 times a day at work. I'm glad that the next two weeks will (hopefully) be a bit less insane.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Atlanta's defense in 2016:

Pre-bye (10 games)
- 28.3 points allowed
- 385.9 yards allowed
- 11 turnovers (1.1 per game)

Post-bye (8 games)
- 20.5 points allowed
- 344.5 yards allowed
- 15 turnovers (1.9 per game)

Clearly they have been playing a lot better since their bye week.

After the bye they played teams ranked 21, 13, 32, 23, 25, and 6 by offensive DVOA. And they gave up 29 and 32 to the only two decent/good offenses they faced. Quinn started calling the defense after the bye and a lot of people seeem to be crediting that with improvement. But the schedule is probably the biggest factor.

 

[BaseballJones]

Brady has had a great career. How many teams does he not have great numbers against?

Regular season numbers....

He's had a 100+ passer rating against 14 teams.
He's had a 90.0-99.9 passer rating against 11 teams.
He's had an 89.9 or worse passer rating against 6 teams.

His worst career numbers are against Carolina:
- 4 games, 88-145 (60.1%), 956 yards (6.6 ypa), 4 td, 5 int, 75.0 rating

His best career numbers are against Atlanta:
- 4 games, 88-131 (67.2%), 1,193 yards (9.1 ypa), 9 td, 1 int, 115.7 rating

After the bye they played teams ranked 21, 13, 32, 23, 25, and 6 by offensive DVOA. And they gave up 29 and 32 to the only two decent/good offenses they faced. Quinn started calling the defense after the bye and a lot of people seeem to be crediting that with improvement. But the schedule is probably the biggest factor.

Yes I'm sure that's part of it for sure. Just like part of the Pats' excellent points against numbers is due to the caliber of opposition they've faced. But I think it's clear they've played much better.

 

[johnmd20]

I remember 2 years ago spending 2 full weeks refreshing the initial Deflate-gate thread roughly 475 times a day at work. I'm glad that the next two weeks will (hopefully) be a bit less insane.

Two years ago today, that story broke. The day of the week,(Monday after Championship games) not the date. Kind of incredible it was so long ago and, yet, so recent at the same time.

 

[steveluck7]

Yes I'm sure that's part of it for sure. Just like part of the Pats' excellent points against numbers is due to the caliber of opposition they've faced. But I think it's clear they've played much better.

This is basically the argument everyone was making all last week for why PITT would be able to contain New England

 

[accidentalsuccess]

Good article on Chris Hogan. Probably not news to most people here, but they made a point to emphasize that Hogan is more of a Gronkowski than a Welker.

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/214143848/patriots-super-bowl-chris-hogan-story

Thanks for posting this. Great angle for the article but it needed some editing. Geez:

Where did this 6-foot-2, 220 pound, little-known player come from?

A gifted-but-undersized athlete out of high school in Ramapo, N.J., Hogan declined the option to play football at schools like UConn and Rutgers, instead going to Penn State -- which would seem like a really obvious choice, if it weren't for the fact that he didn't play football at PSU.

Undersized for the line or LB but it's a little weird to use that phrase in a whole article making the point that he's huge compared to JE and DA. He's also not huge compared to a lot of other WR that run his kind of routes. Gronk is huge.

edited to add some data
just on the pats:
Floyd: 6-2, 220
Mitchell: 5-11, 205

Julio Jones: 6-3, 220
Mohamed Sanu: 6-2, 210

Gronk: 6-6, 265 (!)

Still, it was great to get his story out there and I was glad to learn some more about the guy. I'd say he's a testament to BB's philosophy of growing talent, taking smart and disciplined players, and his appreciation for leadership (that and discipline are obviously intertwined).

 

[jablo1312]

On the other side of the ball, I think the hidden story with the Falcons is that they have quietly assembled the second best offensive line in the league. The Mack signing was a headliner, but they've developed Matthews and Schraeder into one of the best tackle combos in the league. This really is a complete offense at all positions

 

[BaseballJones]

While we're at it, here's how the Pats' D has played in their last 8 games, compared to Atlanta (same 8 game stretch):

Atlanta:
- 20.5 points allowed
- 344.5 yards allowed
- 15 turnovers (1.9 per game)

New England:
- 12.9 points allowed
- 292.3 yards allowed
- 19 turnovers (2.4 per game)

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

Unlike Clowney, you can run the ball at Vic Beasley when he's in the game.

I think this is very similar to last year. Experienced AFC team facing the hot NFC team who is there for what is essentially the first time. Stage will be too big for them. Looking for a low stress second half in two weeks.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

Have we played a team that allowed 400+ points before in Super Bowl?

The 2011 Giants allowed 400 points.

 

[C4CRVT]

Curious to see if anyone has good data to back this up but I think that my memory is that NE's defensive secondary does badly against WR tandems that are big, physical receivers. I'm thinking of Jets and Broncos teams that had depth of good bigger receivers and gave the D a tough time.

 

[DJnVa]

The 2011 Giants allowed 400 points.

Good catch.

However their last 6 games heading into Super Bowl they allowed 77 points, or 12.8/game, coupled with the banged up Pats offense.

This one seems different. Pats are relatively healthy on offense (yes, Gronk) and Atlanta isn't quite putting up the defensive numbers the Giants did down the stretch.

 

[accidentalsuccess]

Most DBs are in the 5-10 +/- height range and that makes it really tough to go up and break up a play against someone 6-2, 6-3 etc. So yes, that's a general problem. But that's a problem for everyone.

It looks to me like the pats have been coaching breaking on the guy's hands as he secures the ball to break up the catch, rather than the ball itself. Or they have guys that are really good at it. Or both. It's maybe a little riskier to give up the catch because knocking the ball is cleaner but probably a better overall strategy since most DBs do give up so much size to many receivers. Lots of plays on the ball look like a b-ball press type defense these days. Or I'm noticing it more?

 

[Marciano490]

Who's our fastest DB to match up with Gabriel?

 

[tims4wins]

They have honorary captains for the Super Bowl right? I nominate McNally and Jastremski.

 

[jablo1312]

Since we'll all have a ton of time to kill between now and Sunday: see if you can name the 23 players on the current active 53 who were also on the 53 for XLIX.

 

[koufax32]

Brady
Jimmytyme
Ghost
Blount
Slater
Jules
Amendola
Cannon
Solder
White
Ebner
Butler
Ryan
Chung
DMC
Hightower
Ninkovich


Ugh

 

[Leather]

Develin
Bolden

 

[RedOctober3829]

Who's our fastest DB to match up with Gabriel?

My guess is that Logan Ryan will draw Gabriel. I think they need size on Jones so Eric Rowe would be the logical choice then Butler on Sanu.

 

[kelpapa]

Allen

 

[Stitch01]

Branch
Harmon
Allen
Fleming?

 

[SumnerH]

There article about Hogan had a lot of news for me. I did not know that he chose lacrosse over football in college. I was a little baffled last night when the announcers were talking about how Belichick saw him play lacrosse, but now I understand. The Pats must be the only franchise to have signed players whose primary college sports were wrestling, rugby and lacrosse.

Hogan's college football career:
12 catches, 147 yards, 3 TD

Hogan's line yesterday:
9 catches, 180 yards, 2 TD

 

[jablo1312]

Brady
Jimmytyme
Ghost
Blount
Slater
Jules
Amendola
Cannon
Solder
White
Ebner
Butler
Ryan
Chung
DMC
Hightower
Ninkovich


Ugh

Develin
Bolden

Branch
Harmon
Allen
Fleming?

These are it. Crazy that there is 1 linebacker from that team still here.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Hogan's college football career:
12 catches, 147 yards, 3 TD

Hogan's line yesterday:
9 catches, 180 yards, 2 TD

In all fairness, he faced better defenses in college.

 

[jsinger121]

My guess is that Logan Ryan will draw Gabriel. I think they need size on Jones so Eric Rowe would be the logical choice then Butler on Sanu.

Agree with this. Use Logan Ryan one on one with Gabriel with Rowe covering Jones with safety help over the top and use Butler to eliminate Sanu.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Agree with this. Use Logan Ryan one on one with Gabriel with Rowe covering Jones with safety help over the top and use Butler to eliminate Sanu.

I could also see Patricia/Belichick say: "We're going to put DMC and Harmon 20 yards back and you can have all the underneath stuff you want. You're not beating us that way."

 

[jsinger121]

I could also see Patricia/Belichick say: "We're going to put DMC and Harmon 20 yards back and you can have all the underneath stuff you want. You're not beating us that way."

Definitely that as well. I also think we see the Patriots on offense try to have long drives to keep Ryan and company off the field and wear out that defense. Keep the Atlanta offense from finding a rhythm.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Definitely that as well. I also think we see the Patriots on offense try to have long drives to keep Ryan and company off the field and wear out that defense. Keep the Atlanta offense from finding a rhythm.

Sometime in the next couple of days I'm going to try doing a deeper dive into Atlanta's strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the ball. Then, we as a board can have a full-scale discussion on this matchup.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

Sometime in the next couple of days I'm going to try doing a deeper dive into Atlanta's strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the ball. Then, we as a board can have a full-scale discussion on this matchup.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Me too. I'm excited about this matchup. Lots of intrigue on both sides of the ball for both teams.

 

[bakahump]

155
115
108
208
123
104
107
119
132
9 Games they allowed over 100 yards Rushing. And thats from a "high powered offense" that was forcing their opponents to throw due to being behind.
Opposing teams averaged 4.5 yards per rush and they allowed 1672 yards for the year. More then the Steelers for instance.
Of course they only lost 2 of those 9 (208 to the @Eagles and 123 to the Chiefs) . In there other 3 losses they allowed 90 (TB), 72 (@Sea) and 78 (SD). Could be because teams panicked when down 7-10 and started passing which lead in the strength (or at least avoided the weakness) of this defense.

This defense can be run on. Blount/Lewis could have a big day especially as the Patriot offense can run the ball and keep Ryan seated or Score "quickly" using the passing game depending on what would be most advantageous at the time.

They are also a pretty light front 7 (and Safetys) with 1 300lb regular.
LE Reed (255) and Freeney (268)
DT Babineaux (281) Jarret (288) Hageman (310) (and old friend Joe Vallano 285)
RE Jackson (295) Hageman
OLBs Beasley (235) Campbell (234) Wheeler (245) and Keyes (223)
MLB Jones (222)
SS is listed as Ricardo Allen (a CB) at 187
FS is Neal at 211

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

I have no idea how the Pats are going to play it, but what about: Butler vs Gabriel, Ryan vs Julio with safety help from McCourty, and Rowe matched up with Sanu?
Butler is probably the best match-up to shut down Gabriel from a size/speed standpoint. If he's out of the game, you could use Butler against Julio, or perhaps try something different and have him lineup against one of the RB's if they're split out. Ryan with help has worked vs big guys like Demaryius Thomas and Rowe has the size to matchup with Sanu. It's a bit unconventional, but I'm concerned with how we're going to cover the RB's in the passing game. Chung will help when he's not on a TE, but that pair is really dynamic and create a ton of match-up problems. Do our LB's like Van Noy and Roberts have the speed to stick with these guys in coverage? Looking forward to Red's breakdown.

 

[Zososoxfan]

Someone did some nice work previewing the potential trophy awarding:

 

[Super Nomario]

I have no idea how the Pats are going to play it, but what about: Butler vs Gabriel, Ryan vs Julio with safety help from McCourty, and Rowe matched up with Sanu?
Butler is probably the best match-up to shut down Gabriel from a size/speed standpoint. If he's out of the game, you could use Butler against Julio, or perhaps try something different and have him lineup against one of the RB's if they're split out. Ryan with help has worked vs big guys like Demaryius Thomas and Rowe has the size to matchup with Sanu. It's a bit unconventional, but I'm concerned with how we're going to cover the RB's in the passing game. Chung will help when he's not on a TE, but that pair is really dynamic and create a ton of match-up problems. Do our LB's like Van Noy and Roberts have the speed to stick with these guys in coverage? Looking forward to Red's breakdown.

This is where I'm leaning. The body types match up best. Ryan will struggle with Jones' speed but he plays physical and he's an excellent tackler. The one thing they cannot do is let Jones take a 10 yard slant 70 yards. The one reservation I have is that Sanu lines up in the slot sometimes and we haven't seen Rowe much there.

As far as approach, I think they'll play very conservative, a lot of two-high with McCourty and Harmon. Take away the deep stuff and trust the front to stop the run. Force third and four and hope Jones drops one (he does sometimes) or Ryan takes a sack (he took a lot) or throws a pick. This approach won't shut them down but they'll have to earn everything.

 

[alydar]

I remember 2 years ago spending 2 full weeks refreshing the initial Deflate-gate thread roughly 475 times a day at work. I'm glad that the next two weeks will (hopefully) be a bit less insane.

Not to mention, if I want to re-live most recent Patriots Super Bowls, it does not trigger PTSD

 

[54thMA]

I remember 2 years ago spending 2 full weeks refreshing the initial Deflate-gate thread roughly 475 times a day at work. I'm glad that the next two weeks will (hopefully) be a bit less insane.

I went to the AFCCG vs the Colts and was thrilled Sunday night into Monday morning with the prospect of going to another Super Bowl until the shit hit the fan later that day and to some degree, my enjoyment of the lead up to the game was ruined with all the back and forth nonsense, no matter how hard I tried, I couldn't avoid it and it was everywhere I looked.

SO glad we won't have to deal with crap like that this time around, just focusing on the game and the opponent, looking forward to soaking it all in and enjoying the shit out of the next two weeks.

At times like this, I look back to the period of time I was a season ticket holder and how bad this team was for most of those years, yet I hung in there, football was always my favorite sport, the Patriots were always my favorite local sports team.

They finally broke through in the 2002 Super Bowl, the past 16 years have been a tremendous ride, talk about being blessed as a sports fan.

 

[The Social Chair]

The Kraft/Brady/Belichick friendship with Trump might grow into a headache the next two weeks but it won't come close to the deflategate story in coverage.

 

[jsinger121]

The Kraft/Brady/Belichick friendship with Trump might grow into a headache the next two weeks but it won't come close to the deflategate story in coverage.

 

[Saints Rest]

This is where I'm leaning. The body types match up best. Ryan will struggle with Jones' speed but he plays physical and he's an excellent tackler. The one thing they cannot do is let Jones take a 10 yard slant 70 yards. The one reservation I have is that Sanu lines up in the slot sometimes and we haven't seen Rowe much there.

As far as approach, I think they'll play very conservative, a lot of two-high with McCourty and Harmon. Take away the deep stuff and trust the front to stop the run. Force third and four and hope Jones drops one (he does sometimes) or Ryan takes a sack (he took a lot) or throws a pick. This approach won't shut them down but they'll have to earn everything.

I think the Pats may try to make the Falcons go against their wont and force them into slow, methodical drives. Take away the home run balls (the Falcons had 8 guys who had long receptions of 35 yards or more).

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

The Kraft/Brady/Belichick friendship with Trump might grow into a headache the next two weeks but it won't come close to the deflategate story in coverage.

I have a serious concern about this as well. The stories are getting ratcheted up and it seems like some local fans are turning on the team and rooting for ATL because of Donald. I thought Brady was very logical. You support your friends because they are your friends. You might not agree with everything but you support them. I don't think it will become deflategate but this isn't going away, let's not be naive and think this will not almost be as big of a story as the game itself.