The sixers and building a winner

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Jed Zeppelin

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The process needs to end this summer after the lottery. Can't take Philly seriously until they actually start spending some money so that their bench isn't full of NBDL guys. I get running lean for a year or two but you can't do it for 3+. It's like trying to compete in D1 hoops with 4 scholarship players and a bunch of walk-ons.
I wonder how much Philly is going to have to outbid other teams for free agents to compensate for what I imagine will be a belief that they're just going to be traded as soon as the value is right.

I also wonder if they'll run into issues when they start trying to trade for stars who make it known they aren't interested in signing an extension. Sure, Ben Simmons is piling up numbers but he's not THE GUY who will convince the next KG that it's okay to go to Philly.

It's not as simple as having assets. That list of pieces is meaningless right now. Sure, things would be different if the perfect world Wiggins/Towns scenario had played out but odds were against it.
 

losangelessoxfan

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I'm sorry, but anyone who jumps to the conclusion that Hinkie has done a "great job" needs to have their head examined. I will agree that he has "won" most of his trades from a value perspective. But his teams have won 19 and 18 games, and seem to have their worst team yet this season. I would argue that they don't yet have that superstar player to build around. And to argue that they have been "unlucky" not to land KAT or Wiggins is to ignore the mathematics of the 20% and 15% chance that they would have won the lottery the last 2 years to be able to draft either of those guys. What Hinkie has done so far requires little basketball managerial/evaluation acumen. If you had put me in charge of the Sixers, I could have put some kind of crap roster together to have some high chance at a good pick. At this point, his results are what they are. 3 years at the bottom of the league with no clear franchise players to show for it.
 

LondonSox

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I have been of the view that finding one Covington on that crazy great deal for years is worth rotating scrubs etc for. Especially if don't want to win.

However, I think not having a half decent point guard on the roster was and is a huge dumb error. They help do so much. A veteran here even if not a starter seems like an easy decision. But I think next year you want a starter anyway.

But this strategy is great when you're in very early tanking. Ie you don't have even a potential piece. Then sure go for it. Try to win the lottery. But as soon as you have guys you want to develop and see how good they are you need some players who can you know, what's the word. Play.

I think that's the mistake this year. You finally have okafor and then you don't have a guy who can pass him the ball! This makes his learning and developing insanely hard. I think next year it's time to pivot whatever happens as I think about it. You need a team and develop your potential stars. This is CLEARLY not that team. It might actually be harming assets and their value.

For MCW this was much easier as he handled the ball. Not so hard to get him touches. And then they did a great job realizing he wasn't going to develop and getting a good return before everyone decided that was the case too. Funny how hinkie got so much shit for that move at the time but the sixers were immediately better without MCW and I doubt anyone would complain about that trade today!! The only problem is the lakers have been even worse than expected.
 

sox311

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That's what she said.
This years top FA PGs/swing guards are as follow:

Mike Conely
Jordan Clarkson
Deron Williams
Brandon Jennings
Evan Turner
Rajon Rondo
Dwayne Wade

Is Conely going to Phlly? Doubtful.
The rest of that group is ugly or not going to happen, Wade, for them. Unless, maybe Rondo is back... Batum would be great for them, but he'll get max offers from two thirds of the teams in th league. Coangelo will get the meetings I guess, where as someone said earlier, the old regime would have trouble convincing players they wouldn't be traded as soon as they hit their max value.
 

losangelessoxfan

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I have been of the view that finding one Covington on that crazy great deal for years is worth rotating scrubs etc for.
You keep beating this drum about Covington, or McConnell, or whoever, but what do the Sixers really have in either of these guys? Covington seems like a 3 and D guy. That is a dime a dozen in free agency. McConnell is a solid backup if you are lucky. That is again a dime a dozen the NBA. You may be getting a couple million worth of value from having these guys on friendly contracts, but it's hardly going to change the fortunes of the franchise.

I think that the problem with Hinkie is that although he has "won" most of his trades, is that there are so many other parts to being a good GM where he is failing miserably. A good NBA GM needs to understand how different skillsets and personalities need to mold together on the court, he needs to be successful in recruiting in free agency, he needs to hire the right coaching staff to put these players in a position to succeed, he needs to draft the right players. Hinkie hasn't shown success in any of these areas as of yet.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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I wonder how much Philly is going to have to outbid other teams for free agents to compensate for what I imagine will be a belief that they're just going to be traded as soon as the value is right.

I also wonder if they'll run into issues when they start trying to trade for stars who make it known they aren't interested in signing an extension. Sure, Ben Simmons is piling up numbers but he's not THE GUY who will convince the next KG that it's okay to go to Philly.

It's not as simple as having assets. That list of pieces is meaningless right now. Sure, things would be different if the perfect world Wiggins/Towns scenario had played out but odds were against it.
This^^^^^^^^

The collateral damage done by Hinkie is even worse than the embarrassment he's caused the league by putting this entertainment product on the floor. Once he's no longer employed by an NBA team I'm sure people will come out with specific stories but we've already heard agents say he has alienated himself from agents and GM's who are critical for him to have relationships with to be successful. It will take many years to undo the damage that Hinkie has done to this organization. I won't even comment on the thought that he did a good job......there are no words for that.
 

Cellar-Door

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This years top FA PGs/swing guards are as follow:

Mike Conely
Jordan Clarkson
Deron Williams
Brandon Jennings
Evan Turner
Rajon Rondo
Dwayne Wade

Is Conely going to Phlly? Doubtful.
The rest of that group is ugly or not going to happen, Wade, for them. Unless, maybe Rondo is back... Batum would be great for them, but he'll get max offers from two thirds of the teams in th league. Coangelo will get the meetings I guess, where as someone said earlier, the old regime would have trouble convincing players they wouldn't be traded as soon as they hit their max value.
If I'm them...
Ramon Sessions. That team needs a PG in the rotation who is a pro and can run an offense. Sessions is a journeyman, he can come in and give them 30 minutes of competence every night, help develop they young guys without tying up cap long term.
 

LondonSox

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Baker, hence the hire no? I can't argue about some of hinkie failings. Others you mention haven't started so no way to know.

Also re agents. There are plenty including Jeff van gundy on the Lowe post this week you completely ridicule the agents comment. They go where the money is and they use leverage as best they can.no agent is going to cost his guy money if the sixers are solid and offer the most money. We shall see but of course they are complaining they are used to all the leverage and they don't have much with hinkie.

If they have good young players and start to be competitive what's the problem? You didn't sign my old guy to a generous deal so I won't take your money?
If they suck. Yeah ok. Note the Lakers. Did anyone sign ? Was it about agents being butthurt? Will someone sign for them when they don't suck.yes.

La Covington is at worst a good 3 and d wing. But could be more. He's signed for two more years for nothing. That's fantastic. I doubt you watch much sixers ball but Covington is a real nba rotation player on a real team for the cheapest contract around.he's probably the best contract in the nba for value (aside from Max guys who deserve like triple )

McConnell. No he's at best a deep bench guy. That was more in jest after how horrendous the pg play has been.

They've struck gold once. But it was gold. He's really solid.

I mean we are largely speculating here, I think the strategy is sound. Execution is to be seen. I'm not foolish enough to think anything is certain but I'd rather have a plan than not. The negativity is equally full of assumptions and guesswork.
 

sox311

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That's what she said.
Brown just got a two year contract extension per Woj.

They thought they struck gold with KJ McDaniels as well. And he looked good on the court, now he gets zero run on a horrible Houston team. So I don't know if Covington is as good as advertised.
 

Tony C

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I'm sorry, but anyone who jumps to the conclusion that Hinkie has done a "great job" needs to have their head examined. I will agree that he has "won" most of his trades from a value perspective. But his teams have won 19 and 18 games, and seem to have their worst team yet this season. I would argue that they don't yet have that superstar player to build around. And to argue that they have been "unlucky" not to land KAT or Wiggins is to ignore the mathematics of the 20% and 15% chance that they would have won the lottery the last 2 years to be able to draft either of those guys. What Hinkie has done so far requires little basketball managerial/evaluation acumen. If you had put me in charge of the Sixers, I could have put some kind of crap roster together to have some high chance at a good pick. At this point, his results are what they are. 3 years at the bottom of the league with no clear franchise players to show for it.
Yeah, this. I read the roundtable opinions at the link London Sox provided with gritted teeth, I'm not a Sixers fan (or hater). I do like them to be competitive since they're an iconic franchise. I get the logic of a deep rebuild. But one of the reasons being a fantasy GM is different than being an actual GM is that an actual GM has to deal with many more variables (leadership; developing players; handling agents; getting fans in the seats; dealing with other franchises that might be pissed off). Hinkie is doing a fantasy team rebuild that isn't working because he's attempted to pull an inside straight -- there's a guy doing that in my fantasy baseball league, too, with similarly dismal results. Low odds that it'll succeed and it hasn't been helped by the unforced errors that have been pointed out (convincingly, btw, very good thread, has changed my mind on some of this).

er...gotta run, can't finish my thought, but...yeah.....guess made my point. Like LA-Soxfan said!
 

LondonSox

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Tony I guess my question remains what would you do?
There isn't a good way for a team to go from bad to good bar acquiring assets and getting lucky on a superstar trade or draft a superstar and go from there.

The sixers were brutal when hinkie took over. They had absolutely nothing. Now they have picks and players that are worth something and tradable.

It's clearly a huge improvement. It doesn't mean anything and its been painful. But what was the other option? I mean their best player was jrue holiday, and they didn't even have their own pick due to the bynum trade.
If they wanted to axe hinkie completely and start from here, he's improved the franchise. I don't know there's any argument against that.
 

Cellar-Door

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Brown just got a two year contract extension per Woj.

They thought they struck gold with KJ McDaniels as well. And he looked good on the court, now he gets zero run on a horrible Houston team. So I don't know if Covington is as good as advertised.
The thing about McDaniels is this... Even if it was gold, he was a case of the Covington approach backfiring. They insisted on leveraging their control into a 4 year low salary deal. He just took the mandatory qualifier. They traded him mostly because they knew he wouldn't come back. He didn't go to Houston and get worse, he was just a deep rotation level SG who had some long term upside. It's just that the 76ers put out such terrible lineups that end of the rotation guys who flashed potential were the best players in that sinkhole of a lineup.

They took 4 seconds this year, 2 overseas stash guys, of the two Americans it was a split. Holmes took the 4 year deal, Tokoto took the 1 year, then got cut for space issues and is with OKC's D-League team. (from articles it seemed like he knew he was probably going D-League or overseas, and signed the 1 year deal to force the 76ers to either roster him or make him a Free Agent).
 

jon abbey

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D'Antoni is an ideal fit for them in one way, in that his pace allows scrubs to put up big numbers and possibly builds their value as trade assets, but he is the worst possible fit in a maybe more important way, as he has absolutely no interest in genuine post scoring and no idea what to do with a player who is a post scorer (Amare generally got the ball 15 feet away from the basket and then beat his man off the dribble in his younger days). This was why he was a dreadful fit in LA when he had Howard and Gasol, and why it's funny to hire him for a team whose best two assets currently are big men (I get that he wouldn't be head coach here, but still funny).

But actually I like the hire if they manage to do it, if he can create another Jeremy Lin over the next few years, he's earned his salary.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The Colangelo hiring isn't only about what is happening on the court but off it as well. Don't lose sight of the fact that at the end of the day the NBA is an Entertainment product who compete for consumers entertainment dollars. These consumers have a ton of other options these days and competition for them are fierce. The local TV contracts around the league are ridiculous but the ratings for these Sixer games are not only embarrassing for Harris but affecting the team they are playing as well.

D'Antoni bringing excitement back to Sixer basketball is about getting people in Philly to view these games. It will take time to reverse the Hinkie damage both on the court and off it and D'Antoni is a good start to add to the (Steve) Mix.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/philadelphia-s--embarrassing--tv-viewership-could-barely-fill-76ers--stadium-220939908.html
 

JohnnyTheBone

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Forget Mike D'antoni. If the Sixers want to hire a coach to do a good job, like Hinkie has, they should hire me. Give me a 3-year contract, and I guarantee I can guide them to 3 straight non-competitive last-place finishes. Think of the great picks! I'd do a GREAT JOB!!

Alright, I'm still bitter about the Celtics loss last night. But put me in the Baker camp. The idea that Hinkie has done a good job is laughable.
 

LondonSox

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I will say that increasingly the veteran leadership argument is coming down more in side if its worth doing.
So I'm fully prepared to admit I was probably wrong on this. I wouldn't want a load of vets as they impact both losing and growth but I'm thinking you want at least a couple. Preferably both with good character and defensive strengths. I'd pick a rebounder/ defensive guy and a point guard d and distribute more than scoring. Past that I don't know. But it is clear in the Lowe interview hinkie thinks this was a mistake. He claims he tried to sign a few guys but they wanted more than he'd pay. This irritates me a bit as you are BELOW THE FLOOR. He also says he thought walker would be ready to start the season. This seems like nonsense to me as the widespread consensus was about now. So that's either a lie or really stupid assessment.
 

JohnnyTheBone

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I came off as more of a dick than I wanted to, my apologies. Hinkie's approach was novel, and the ownership group obviously backed the plan. They went for it, but the picks didn't shake out optimally. That's the danger with a down-to-the-studs tank, as many have mentioned. There is no guarantee the lotto balls will bounce your way, or that a transcendent player happens to be available that year.

Right now it appears that the plan backfired, but ownership is doing the right thing by installing a respected NBA executive to oversee the works. It's similar to the facelift the Red Sox pulled off with the Dombrowski hire: Instant credibility. It lets the league, and more importantly the team's fans, know that it is time to start getting serious about competing again.

The results of Danny Ainge's on-the-fly rebuild, and Hinkie's tank-first approach, couldn't be more stark. While the Sixers head to the basement for the third straight year with a mismatched roster, the C's only had to endure one abysmal campaign. By the second year, they made the playoffs. The third year, they look like one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference with a deep, talented roster. Meanwhile, Ainge's most tantalizing draft assets are yet to come.

Kudos to Ainge, because he honestly couldn't have handled the rebuild any better. He hired the right coach and made the best trades, all while keeping the pain to a minimum.
 

LondonSox

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Well I will say people seem to have declared the tank a failure.

Is it?

The team was awful and had no picks no talent. Nothing.

We still don't know if embiid will be healthy ever, and if so he could be a super super star. Simmons could land with them this year.

I mean if they have embiid (healthy) and saric and Simmons and Noel and okafor and the lakers pick and the heat and thunder pick and Covington. And btw the pick swap and unprotected first with the Kings. And the most salary cap space in the league.

Why is this a failure? Is there a team with more youth and assets around? You can trade okafor or Noel (or both) or the lakers pick (or if it transfers this year the player).

Now you need to pick who to keep and who to trade and make some good moves (and I do agree that the stockpiling of assets regardless of potential for team fit may have been an error)

But this is a really scary looking team. Esp when you can add two max free agents to it as well.

Yet he failed? Seems early no? He hasn't won jack shit yet but it's not like the sixers didn't get anything out of the last three years...
 

LondonSox

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Anyway I feel like I'm getting defensive and repetitive so I'll try to stop that and always be happy to respond to questions and update things. But I think everyone is the most negative when things are actually right around the bottom.
 

bowiac

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That's obviously true, but we have no reason to think this is the "most negative." It's just the most negative so far. You're a finance guy: think of it as trying to time the market based on outside criticism. You never know in real time how much harsher the criticism can still get.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Well I will say people seem to have declared the tank a failure.

Is it?

The team was awful and had no picks no talent. Nothing.

We still don't know if embiid will be healthy ever, and if so he could be a super super star. Simmons could land with them this year.

I mean if they have embiid (healthy) and saric and Simmons and Noel and okafor and the lakers pick and the heat and thunder pick and Covington. And btw the pick swap and unprotected first with the Kings. And the most salary cap space in the league.

Why is this a failure? Is there a team with more youth and assets around? You can trade okafor or Noel (or both) or the lakers pick (or if it transfers this year the player).
I'm sort of on your side that it's too early to tell whether the plan is a failure - after all, if they end up with #1 and #2 in the next draft and Saric comes over and they sign a PG, Hinkie could still look like a genius.

It's more likely though they don't get the Lakers pick or Simmons and Hinkie will be looking for another job and at that point we can call his plan a failure.

Hinkie's biggest mistake, I think, is that he didn't see the future of the NBA. His draft strategy was predicated on the idea that you have to build around the best big man a team can find. That's appears not to be true, at least with this iteration of the NBA..
 

BigSoxFan

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The Lakers' pick is top 3 protected and is looking more and more like it'll stay in LA. Worst case scenario for Philly is the Lakers keeping their pick and getting #1 overall, which is certainly a possibility.
 

bowiac

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Hinkie's biggest mistake, I think, is that he didn't see the future of the NBA. His draft strategy was predicated on the idea that you have to build around the best big man a team can find. That's appears not to be true, at least with this iteration of the NBA..
Other than Okafor, I don't agree that that's what was going on here. Noel was the injured clear #1 talent who fell far enough in the draft that they could trade up. Embiid was the injured #1 talent as well. Okafor was a mystery to me, but he at least had a plausible case for being the best player available as well.

Given how the 76ers play, and where Hinkie came from, it just doesn't seem likely to me that they somehow don't agree with the direction the NBA is headed. It's just an extreme case of "best player available."
 

losangelessoxfan

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Well I will say people seem to have declared the tank a failure.

Is it?

The team was awful and had no picks no talent. Nothing.

We still don't know if embiid will be healthy ever, and if so he could be a super super star. Simmons could land with them this year.

I mean if they have embiid (healthy) and saric and Simmons and Noel and okafor and the lakers pick and the heat and thunder pick and Covington. And btw the pick swap and unprotected first with the Kings. And the most salary cap space in the league.

Why is this a failure? Is there a team with more youth and assets around? You can trade okafor or Noel (or both) or the lakers pick (or if it transfers this year the player).

Now you need to pick who to keep and who to trade and make some good moves (and I do agree that the stockpiling of assets regardless of potential for team fit may have been an error)

But this is a really scary looking team. Esp when you can add two max free agents to it as well.

Yet he failed? Seems early no? He hasn't won jack shit yet but it's not like the sixers didn't get anything out of the last three years...
It is too early to call this a failure, absolutely. It is also true that the Sixers have more valuable pieces than they did when he took over. But I want to reiterate that there is so much more to being a good NBA GM than simply "winning" trades on paper. You need to show leadership, hire the right coaching staff, build a roster with the right mix of players with complementary skillsets, recruit well in free agency, among other things. I wouldn't necessarily call him a plus in any of these categories. I would say that for any of these other points, the jury is still out, or he has shown some deficiency.

In terms of leadership, I would give him an F. The way he trots out Brett Brown every night to face a firing squad from the media, while he hides in his office and never answers for himself is embarrassing. The first 2-3 years of Danny Ainge's tenure with the Celtics looked like a miserable failure, yet he was front and center in the media all the time, answering for himself. I have a tremendous amount of respect for the way Ainge handled himself in the beginning (and I was certainly no Ainge fan in those years).

He has put together a team without a real point guard to feed his star big men the ball, and his top 3 draft choices all play the same position, and will be hard pressed to play together. Obviously the Sixers are far from a finished product, but it is pretty impossible to put "building a complementary roster" in his favor so far.

Too early to judge Brown and his coaching staff.

Also too early to judge on Hinkie's free agency recruitment, as he has never really gone after any notable free agents. I do believe what Jeff Van Gundy says about free agents just going after the money, but I also tend to think that if the money the Sixers offer is equal to some other teams, that the Sixers will probably be shut out. If the money is equal, what player will want to go to a team with the infrastructure the Sixers have? And what agent will go out of his way to want to help a GM he doesn't like? Thus they will have to pay a certain premium.

You seem to say that the idea that they "could" get Simmons this year(which the odds are not in favor of, by the way) is really a plus in the evaluation of Hinkie. I don't believe that in any way. If he gets Simmons in the draft, it will be because of luck and nothing else. All it would mean was that Hinkie had a bad NBA team, and then got lucky in a lottery. Any person on earth could manage to do that. The Lakers have a chance at Simmons, too. If they got him, I would still think their front office has done a pretty bad job. Also, when you say that the Sixers didn't have their own draft picks before Hinkie arrived, it strikes me as kind of a half truth which you are just using to help prove your point. The Sixers potentially did owe Miami and Orlando their first rounders, but have been bad the last several years, so they actually only gave up a couple second rounders. In the end, they barely lost anything.
 
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Remagellan

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They also got back the pick they owed Orlando from the Bynum deal in the Payton deal that netted them Saric.

I think the Colangelo hiring had less to do with the "process" failing and more to do with the leadership failure discussed above. Hinkie has always gotten a lot of criticism for his unwillingness to deal with the media, but it seems like his forcing Brett Brown to handle all the questions after Okafor's troubles might have been a breaking point for the league and the organization. I've read more direct statements from Phil Jackson on the matter (he said he would have taken Okafor over Porzingas if the Sixers had passed on Jahlil) than I did Hinkie.

As for all this crap about veteran leadership, look at all the veterans the Lakers have around their young core and tell me, how is that working for them? I'll admit this team would benefit greatly from the presence of one real NBA caliber point guard, but that's pretty much it.
 

sox311

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That's what she said.
Am I right to think that Saric would be the consensus 2nd overall pick in this draft? At this point it would be a unanimous one and two combo of Simmons/Saric right?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Other than Okafor, I don't agree that that's what was going on here. Noel was the injured clear #1 talent who fell far enough in the draft that they could trade up. Embiid was the injured #1 talent as well. Okafor was a mystery to me, but he at least had a plausible case for being the best player available as well.

Given how the 76ers play, and where Hinkie came from, it just doesn't seem likely to me that they somehow don't agree with the direction the NBA is headed. It's just an extreme case of "best player available."
Yeah, I probably over-spoke but it seems to me that when a team is analyzing value in a draft, the GM would take into account both the players that they have already drafted plus the changing nature of the game and somehow not end up with all 3 big men. But that also may be just me. And of course taking a backcourt player with a higher floor and lower upside would have meant winning a few more games these last couple of years..

Woj says the Sixers are in talks to hire D'Antoni as associate head coach.
Hiring official. I wonder if Hinkie and Ben Cherington will have drinks one day in the future lamenting what could have been if they were just given one more year.
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25418535/report-mike-dantoni-hired-as-assistant-coach-by-philadelphia-76ers
 

LondonSox

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Everything I read is encouraging to be honest. Hinkie has some glaring flaws, mainly being human and relating to other humans.
I think it could work there. I mean it won't. But to could.
Brett brown has issues too, good at coaching not great at putting good line ups on the floor. He gets basically a pass given the talent, but this year I've seen a lot of weird decisions. Of course I don't see dantoni working out remotely either.

Not least because you know sixers.

Hinkie claims he thought Marshall would be ready to start the season, which I don't buy, and he should have had a veteran on the team (hence brand rumours etc) but this team looks built to tank and the results seem to make that clear. I even understand why, but own it like you did before no?

Anyway I still think there is a real chance this team is loaded with talent next year, but it's a mess so a lot to sort out and now a mess in the front office.


Weeeeeeeeeeeee splat.
 

LondonSox

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This is an absolute train wreck right now.
Records to be set I fear and I'm not sure what the plan is.
Okafor is showing a lot these last few games esp driving. Which is a surprise to me. Offensively he just looks very good for his age and position. But... Defensively and pace he's bad. He's going to be OK rebounding imo but never great and he'll be a good post and one and one defender I think in time but I'm totally not sold on rim protection and help.
I will say the shocking number of blocks from the likes of grant help offset a bit.

Meanwhile Noel is the opposite. Excellent defensively and is literally a dunk only rim shooter. I have no expectations of more a chance sure but I don't see it.

And they can't play together. Trade? Where does embiid fit.

Decisions need to be made.
 

bowiac

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I don't think any decisions need to be made with respect to Embiid. He remains a vague concept at best right now. Noel/Okafor on the other hand has been such a terrible combo that I think they should really be looking around the league already. Something like Smart/Noel might make some sense for instance (though I'd probably pass as a Celtics fan).
 

LondonSox

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I think the question is which. Noel doesn't put up the offensive stats but he was bloody good last year. He's potentially a perfect small ball Era big. Rim protection, speed, ability to defend smaller players, even switch onto wings.

He's just never going to be a star scorer, but he doesn't need to be.

Okafor is probably more valuable, but his offensive game is good and already growing. I legitimately am shocked by the free throw improvement, and he's been knocking down a jumper (very) recently. But more for me is he's looked really really good driving in the last week since he got back. That's is very interesting. He is Just 20 and his offensive game is improving in 25 games. He's scary on that end.

But... He slows down the whole team and is a defensive issue for now, as I say he's a big boy one the defensive end on the block, but that's not as valuable as it was. You need rim protection and he just isn't that.

Can you build a team around Okafor? Offensively yes. I really think he is going to be a stud. But can you hide him defensively? Can you get his fitness up so he can keep a faster pace? I don't know.

Noel, you can build around him easily. Small or big offensively, the offense is just going to be some pick and roll and some open dunks and offensive boards. The only real concern is his bad hands, esp on anything arriving under the waist. So he's not a problem offensively, but also not a max guy maybe so easier to keep? He's a building block defensively.

Realistically they're going to wait. Noel's value is falling but you sort of know what he is. Okafor is still discovering his skill set. Embiid is a long shot but I could see him given his range and shot with either. He could potentially the 4 offensively and be the rim protector etc defensively.

But when do you need to decide? Take everyone into next year and see what you have? I think if you get the right offer you could move either. If I was a small ball team needing a defensive big with upside I'd be trying to land Noel, but I doubt anyone is matching the price hinkie would want.
 

Tuff Ghost

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Okafor's free throw shooting has been a nice surprise (.727 on the season, .838 over the last 8 games since his suspension, compared to .510 at Duke), but his offensive numbers still are not jumping off the sheet to me. He has no help around him, so it's probably not as bad as the numbers look (i.e. I bet he has to force more bad shots without any offense generated around him or playmakers creating space for him).

FG% over last 8 g: .450 (.457 season)
TS% over last 8 g: .506 (.494 season)

That TS% on the season is 51st out of 56 centers.

Noel is having a rough year, too and I agree that his value is falling. Offense has been ugly, but even his defensive numbers are not much better than average. From a Celtics standpoint, I would not consider trading Smart for him as was thrown out above.

Philly team defense rating per 100: 105.1 (offense: 91.6)
Noel defense rating per 100: 104 (offense: 85)

His DRPM is 1.74, which is not going to cover up an ORPM of -6.16 (RPM = -4.42; 94th out of 94 among ESPN's list of PFs).
 

HomeRunBaker

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Okafor is going to be a beast.....he's already part-beast and only turned 20 years old last week. His offensively ability is clearly evident to anyone paying attention despite playing with 4 clueless teammates every minute he's on the floor with no teammate to learn from either on OR off the floor. Defensively for someone like him it's going to be all about effort......and nobody can sustain effort every minute of 82 games when you lose every single night. The collateral damage these losses have already done to Noel can't be ignored which is why I've been so opposed to Hinkie's strategy if tanking is more than one season. Analytics when being blown out every night are nothing but noise when it's all taking place during garbage time on the floor with guys who aren't NBA players......especially defensively which is most team defense anyway.
 

Tony C

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....

Realistically they're going to wait. Noel's value is falling but you sort of know what he is. Okafor is still discovering his skill set. Embiid is a long shot but I could see him given his range and shot with either. He could potentially the 4 offensively and be the rim protector etc defensively.

But when do you need to decide? Take everyone into next year and see what you have? I think if you get the right offer you could move either. If I was a small ball team needing a defensive big with upside I'd be trying to land Noel, but I doubt anyone is matching the price hinkie would want.
I think you have to decide now, I disagree it's realistic to wait. To my mind they probably should have selected someone with complementary skills to Noel in this last draft, even if Okafor is doing well. Now that they have both (and Embiid, maybe) I think one needs to be traded and there's no more time to waste. Noel's value wont' go up while playing with Okafor -- I think you decide that you're good with the new NBA speed style and Noel is a Deandre Jordan type who you want to surround with shooters and speed. Or you decide the market inefficiency is in guys like Okafor and you can build around him. Either way, you trade the other for a complementary player. Maybe you'll get Embiid back, too, maybe not. But there's no time to waste in a basketball sense, but also in the sense that Hinkie is going to lose his job if he doesn't turn things around....there's an expiration date on a total rebuild -- Philly has to sell winning rather than hope of winning at some point. If I'm Hinkie I trade Okafor for a really good backcourt player -- there is a lot of depth in PGs out there. I then hope for the #1 overall and Simmons. If not I go for the best wing player I can get with a close to the top pick or use that pick to trade for a wing player. Even without Simmons, maybe with 3 decent players a free agent can be signed and there can be some hope of mediocrity as a base for further growth.

I'm sympathetic LondonSox. There was a logic to the plan, but it's not working out and time to move on. At some point losing becomes self-perpetuating
 

DannyDarwinism

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Okafor is going to be a beast.....he's already part-beast and only turned 20 years old last week. His offensively ability is clearly evident to anyone paying attention despite playing with 4 clueless teammates every minute he's on the floor with no teammate to learn from either on OR off the floor. Defensively for someone like him it's going to be all about effort......and nobody can sustain effort every minute of 82 games when you lose every single night. The collateral damage these losses have already done to Noel can't be ignored which is why I've been so opposed to Hinkie's strategy if tanking is more than one season. Analytics when being blown out every night are nothing but noise when it's all taking place during garbage time on the floor with guys who aren't NBA players......especially defensively which is most team defense anyway.
I agree with respect to his offensive game- now that he's hitting FTs, basically all of his tools are good to great for his size and age. But regarding the bold, I've seen this said a lot, and probably even thought it myself, but I wonder if we overstate the impact of effort versus skill on defense. And if conserving energy on defense is a commonly used strategy, shouldn't we assume that most guys are doing it too, and therefore when stakes are elevated and everyone's putting in more effort, is there reason to think certain guys will suck comparatively less? Regarding the effect of losing, there were certainly questions regarding his defense while he was winning at Duke, so I don't know how much we should factor in the Sixers' sucktitude.

Offensively, I think there's good reason to believe he can be a rich (and hopefully healty) man's Brook Lopez, but defensively I think there's cause for concern that he's a poor man's Brook Lopez.
 

bowiac

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But regarding the bold, I've seen this said a lot, and probably even thought it myself, but I wonder if we overstate the impact of effort versus skill on defense. And if conserving energy on defense is a commonly used strategy, shouldn't we assume that most guys are doing it too, and therefore when stakes are elevated and everyone's putting in more effort, is there reason to think certain guys will suck comparatively less?
There is some support for this in RAPM circles. From the creator of RPM, here's a defensive aging curve for all positions:




It more or less looks like any other aging curve. Young players are bad. They improve until a late 20s peak. Then they decline. (Note: this isn't an age curve itself, but rather the aging coefficients you would apply. Same effect).

There are some more position specific curves here, but they're based off APM rather than RAPM.

One note: selection bias is a real problem for aging studies, so I wouldn't be totally confident in these findings, but there's at least some support for defense being a real skill like anything else.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I believe there is certainly defensive skillsets as we had one particular PG here a few years ago whose effort was (rightfully) criticized however his inability to defend the high screen wasn't only effort......he simply wasn't good at it even when he tried.

While there seems to be some of that in Okafor he does have enough physical ability to become passable defensively which was where my point about effort coming into play. Not to mention he is 20 years old.....he is supposed to be a god awful NBA defender right now at this stage. I see the same thing with other high ceiling 20-year olds in Minnesota with Wiggins and LaVine especially the latter who is continuing to make a huge leap offensively but is predictably clueless on how to play NBA defense despite having the physical ability to do so. These things take time.
 

bowiac

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I agree - Okafor's defensive game doesn't scare me yet. He's a rookie big - he's lucky he's not just fouling out in every game. He's probably never going to be Tim Duncan, but he doesn't necessarily need to end up as Enes Kanter either.

I think the same is true of his offensive game FWIW. RPM hates him offensively, but that doesn't really mean for me given he's not really playing with a NBA roster. It's hard to tell what that would look like if he had someone other than Robert Covington to pass out of a double team to, or if he wasn't the team's only plausible halfcourt offensive option in most sets.

I don't like Okafor much, but this season so far hasn't shown me much either way. If I liked him earlier, I'd probably still like him.
 

LondonSox

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Yeah I think this is all fair and all makes for tricky decisions.

I was just reading about the recent improvements from Ingram and sort of end up with waiting being sensible.

Next draft could be amazing or just OK or awful.

I mean let's say you end up with Ingram, a Noel, saric, Ingram, covington, pg line up is potentially very fun. Okafor can be traded for a pg, and you still have embiid, likely at least two more mid to late firsts, stauskas, grant, Marshall and I think either Holmes or cross is a keeper. That plus a lot of cap room would fly.

Or you could end up with Simmons and then maybe that's a whole different plan.

Its pretty hard now to know. I think increasingly unless they get blown away by a trade deadline type post significant injury type deal they wait for the off-season.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Colangelo's first move.......

Sixers reacquire PG Ish Smith from NO for two 2nd rounders (one in '16, one in '17) and waive Tony Wroten and his $2.1m salary. Decent chance Wroten goes unclaimed by the 8 teams eligible to claim him (cap space or TPE) and doesn't have a job next week. NO didn't even want him in return for nothing.

Makes sense for NO now that Holiday and Cole are healthy. Smith is a FA this summer (and every summer lol) but as a 6-year veteran with no role he's making the league minimum of $1.1m and with the added bump next seasons for being a 7-year vet he would be an expensive insurance policy.

Makes sense for Philly in bringing Ish back as Smith is best buds with Nerlens while giving the Sixers someone at least maybe somewhat capable of running an offensive set or at worse being able to break down his man after the set breaks down.
 
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LondonSox

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Don't mind waiving wroten but this seems a bit odd. Could have had ish as a free agent and wroten is who he is, and is coming off a major injury. Just feels like 2 seconds for a move they had a free option on in the off-season.
I can't care enough to be bothered but you saved those picks up to sign a who gives shit player like this?
 

HomeRunBaker

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The deal wasn't about next year it's about stability this year immediately following a game when the Sixer PG's couldn't execute enough to initiate a simple offensive set on the way to 26 TO. Okafor is a greatest beneficiary here but with Ish now presumably with the first unit they finally have someone to at the very least be able to put his teammates in a position to succeed. The players (and the fans who do show up) finally have something to smile about with the message sent to them that someone above cares about what is happening on the floor.
 

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For the record the trade is being reported as Denver's 2016 2nd and Philly's own 2017 2nd.

Agree with HRB, this is a full mea culpa for not having a single NBA caliber point guard on the roster for 31 games. Now at least they can run offensive sets and not waste the whole season's worth of development.
 

nighthob

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Given that the franchise had accumulated 3,749 second round choices on Hinkie's watch, spending two of them to help put an actual NBA team on the floor is a wise investment for the new regime. The problem with Hinkie's approach is that it needs someone like LeBron to work. And I'm not even sure about that because Cleveland, wisely in my opinion, immediately moved to surround LeBron with stable vets when he arrived in the NBA.
 

bowiac

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I don't see why The Process needs LeBron to work (moreso than any title team needs HOF talent). What do you mean by that?
 

nighthob

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LeBron is that unique combination of jack of all trades whose offensive skills were, more or less, at an all star level from day one. Meaning that he actually could take a franchise by the balls out of the gate. But even he was surrounded by stable vets by the Cavs, and by design as they dumped all the headcases from their roster to find guys to stabilize things from the getgo.

Most young players are a major work in process and pursuing long term losing programs while stripping a roster of veteran presences seems counterproductive. You get your players used to losing and playing for a way out rather than to win. The Clippers pursued that program for a generation and only escaped it by accident.
 

LondonSox

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Oh god this again. You get used to losing and can never get out of it. Is there any evidence of this? I'm open to it. (And I was wrong about veterans apparently though I was never against one or two, esp at pg. having no one to run the distribution etc. )

Obvious counter examples are the thunder or until the injury ridden Pelicans season this year you'd say them with Davis.

The equation is simple you need a star. With a star you can recruit a second or trade for one or whatever. The first superstar is the hardest one.

Regardless next year I think the tanking will be over and then it's a case of seeing if you got enough young talent in the time you did. And of course if you don't get the lakers pick this year you have that to come and you're still likely bad. Plus have the Kings swap and then the pick from them too. So more assets to trade in the right move.

The pg play has been god awful. So can't really argue. It just shows how bad a plan it was to have two known injured starters. I mean ugh.

I think you see what you have in a lot of talent and make some trades. You need one of the okafor embiid plus this year picks to be a star, plus maybe saric. Or worst case hope you can swing one or two (plus Noel too) and or picks into one.

More psychologically damaging will be if they keep losing when they aren't supposed to. I think this year people expected them to be moving forward hence the more unpleasant reaction. But expectations have reset now perhaps?
 
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