The Seattle Mariners: The Rudderless Ship?
- Thread starter absintheofmalaise
- Start date
The most interesting part to me was that Jack Z is accused of basically lying on his own credentials. If he had someone else prepare an interview packet for him, he's a bigger idiot than I thought.
For those of us who live in Seattle, even those of us whose allegiance lies with Boston, Lincoln and Armstrong have been the real problem with the team for some time.
I don't even think Bill Bavasi was that terrible of a GM: he knew he was going to get fired if he didn't turn things around in three years, and with the Mariners farm system shot to hell by Pat Gillick the only way to improve the team was free agency. Even if that meant signing two righty pull hitters (Beltre and Richie Sexson) to play in a park that treats right-handed fly ball hitters the way the green river killer treated prostitutes.
For this specific report, I think you have to take everything with a grain of salt. Eric Wedge in particular has an obvious motive to put the blame on the GM. The sheer number of angry ex-staffers does raise a red flag, though.
I don't even think Bill Bavasi was that terrible of a GM: he knew he was going to get fired if he didn't turn things around in three years, and with the Mariners farm system shot to hell by Pat Gillick the only way to improve the team was free agency. Even if that meant signing two righty pull hitters (Beltre and Richie Sexson) to play in a park that treats right-handed fly ball hitters the way the green river killer treated prostitutes.
For this specific report, I think you have to take everything with a grain of salt. Eric Wedge in particular has an obvious motive to put the blame on the GM. The sheer number of angry ex-staffers does raise a red flag, though.
I have a good friend who grew up in western WA and spent years co-owning M's season tickets. He gave them up two years ago, not because the team on the field was bad but because he felt the FO was so screwed up that there was no possibility of getting a good product on the field without major organizational changes. This article, if accurate, pretty much vindicates his gut feelings completely.
The timeline of this is interesting. If the Mariners found out a week ago that this article was going to come out, could it have caused them to give Cano whatever he wanted to come to Seattle? They certainly did seem to be acting with a lot of haste.
The difference between what the Yankees were offering and what Cano got is obviously huge. The difference between what Cano could have gotten from the Yankees and what Cano got is a little smaller, as -- and take this FWIW -- I am told by a NY sportswriter who has been on the money in the past, Cano could have gotten 8/200 had he continued negotiating with NY.
Regardless, $40 mm is a lot of money.
But is it enough to really matter in the end? Whether it's $175 mm, $200 mm or $240 mm, Mr. Cano was destined to hit the frigging jackpot. Lottery money. Pedroia terms himself "rich as shit" after signing a $110 mm deal, and he is.
And now Cano gets to play for this train wreck of a franchise. And now he doesn't get to play for the storied franchise that he grew up in.
When does Cano first have some honest, deep down recriminations about his choice? Maybe never. Maybe he measures himself by having the biggest contract possible and he's a winner in his own book, now and forever. But I doubt it. I bet he ends up regretting this move, and that it doesn't take all that long for that thought to seep in.
Regardless, $40 mm is a lot of money.
But is it enough to really matter in the end? Whether it's $175 mm, $200 mm or $240 mm, Mr. Cano was destined to hit the frigging jackpot. Lottery money. Pedroia terms himself "rich as shit" after signing a $110 mm deal, and he is.
And now Cano gets to play for this train wreck of a franchise. And now he doesn't get to play for the storied franchise that he grew up in.
When does Cano first have some honest, deep down recriminations about his choice? Maybe never. Maybe he measures himself by having the biggest contract possible and he's a winner in his own book, now and forever. But I doubt it. I bet he ends up regretting this move, and that it doesn't take all that long for that thought to seep in.
Hoplite said:
See, this is also why it is so good to be a Sox fan right now - good ownership who support the smart people in the front office, and now a good coaching staff again - just a well run organization from top to bottom (also with likeable players, who win to boot). Because of all those dynamics and the fan support, players actually want to come to Boston/in some cases will take a discount to stay.
Getting a glimpse behind the curtain in Seattle just reinforces how lucky we are....
Couple of points.
First, that article is stone cold awesome from an entertainment perspective. However, beyond that it's important to remember that anything can be made to seem dysfunctional if given the right spin. And when I say that, I'm not doubting anything Eric Wedge said or the notion that the Seattle Mariners were a bizarre, dysfunctional team. But before we take that too far, just realize that the same conclusion(s) could have been drawn from the Globe article/series written by Bob Hohler at the end of the 2011 season.
If I'm Cano, I don't worry too much about this right now. After all, I'm the guy they signed to come in and change the culture. That doesn't mean that in two years he's not wishing that he signed elsewhere. But the guy is still basking in the afterglow of his $240 million deal and stories from disgruntled managers/scouts/FO types are a dime a dozen in MLB. I don't think he'll give this a second thought.
On the other hand, I would not be surprised if his agent has a "just what kind of an organization are you running?" conversation with Jack Z. before the contract is finalized (pending physicals and whatever else may be in there).
First, that article is stone cold awesome from an entertainment perspective. However, beyond that it's important to remember that anything can be made to seem dysfunctional if given the right spin. And when I say that, I'm not doubting anything Eric Wedge said or the notion that the Seattle Mariners were a bizarre, dysfunctional team. But before we take that too far, just realize that the same conclusion(s) could have been drawn from the Globe article/series written by Bob Hohler at the end of the 2011 season.
If I'm Cano, I don't worry too much about this right now. After all, I'm the guy they signed to come in and change the culture. That doesn't mean that in two years he's not wishing that he signed elsewhere. But the guy is still basking in the afterglow of his $240 million deal and stories from disgruntled managers/scouts/FO types are a dime a dozen in MLB. I don't think he'll give this a second thought.
On the other hand, I would not be surprised if his agent has a "just what kind of an organization are you running?" conversation with Jack Z. before the contract is finalized (pending physicals and whatever else may be in there).
TheYaz67 said:
Just two years ago, the Red Sox as an organization were also looking pretty bad (not this bad, but still). These things can turn around quickly.
The whole article seems like he said, she said in house griping you'll find in any working environment. It looks remarkably similar to the Holher Red Sox piece after 2011. I'm not sure it really tells us anything in the long run, aside from the front office having philosophical disconnects..
If the Mariners can piece together the right owner, CEO, GM, and field manager, these types of public gripings won't happen. We saw this with the Red Sox once Farrell was hired. It's been kumbaya since then. Winning sure does seem to fix internal squabbling.
I imagine Cano will succeed on some piss poor teams the next couple years until he gets traded back to NY. I wouldn't at all be surprised if the Yanks re-acquire him in 2-3 years after Seattle realizes what a horrible mistake his contract is.
If the Mariners can piece together the right owner, CEO, GM, and field manager, these types of public gripings won't happen. We saw this with the Red Sox once Farrell was hired. It's been kumbaya since then. Winning sure does seem to fix internal squabbling.
I imagine Cano will succeed on some piss poor teams the next couple years until he gets traded back to NY. I wouldn't at all be surprised if the Yanks re-acquire him in 2-3 years after Seattle realizes what a horrible mistake his contract is.
I agree with the people drawing comparisons to the Red Sox situation. A year ago, the narrative on the Red Sox was that they had a medling ownership and Larry Lucchino was basically the devil. Epstein had bolted to the Cubs and the Red Sox had burned through two managers in two years. Any time a team doesn't get the results they're looking for, there's going to be some people who are less than happy, which creates an opportune moment for a beat writer trying to make a name for themselves.
The timing of the article is what is awful for the M's(Right in the beginning of the Meetings where everyone goes to talk shop and rumors). Sure money talks and it did with Cano but for a team reluctant to spend anything according to the article getting other pieces around him just got at least a little harder. Wedge sounded the most rattled. I just feel bad for their fans.
jimbobim said:
It might not be so bad for them. If other teams read this and believe that Zduriencik really does judge players by home runs and RBI's (which I find hard to believe), he might have a lot of teams come to him with trade ideas looking to take advantage of him. In my fantasy baseball league, I always pretend I'm much more ignorant than I am so other owners aren't intimidated about making trades with me. I'd much rather listen to a few Matt Dominguez for Matt Carpenter offers, than have other owners be reluctant to complete a trade with me. The more trade offers I get, the better. You never know when another owner may evaluated a player drastically different than you do.
Blengino just did an analysis of the Cano contract for Fangraphs.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cano-decade/
He Cliff's Notes it at the end:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cano-decade/
He Cliff's Notes it at the end:
Brianish said:
A lot of his stuff was using standard deviation and Z_scores at a batted ball level which was interesting. Tried to reproduce and it was crazy, but not surprising, how far and away better Votto was than everyone. Nava was real good as well.
I like Utley but he's 4 years older than Cano and has 239 less hits. I don't see him as a very good comp or hall of fame worthy.
GBrushTWood said:
This is true, but there are several crucial questions. Is Lincoln willing to engage in the sort of introspective analysis that John Henry did, and genuinely examine his own actions and the organizational culture he helped enable? Is Armstrong willing to step back and let the GM truly run the show, the way Lucchino did (or was forced to do)? Is Zduriencik able to bridge the gap between statistical analysis and scouting and get everyone engaged and pulling the same direction, the way Cherington has done so well?
The Red Sox saga post-2011 also shows the advantage of organizational depth - not only was Cherington ready to step in when Epstein bolted, but he had a dedicated cadre of lieutenants and staffers to rely on and who seem to be fully on board with his vision. Does Jack Z. have any assistant GM's or directors under him who are capable of running a team if he does prove to be in over his head?
Fascinating article. Baker wrote some perhaps unfair shit stirring pieces in Toronto but this one seems pretty solid.
Regarding controlling Red Sox dysfunction, it seems to be centered around restricting Larry Lucchino to the things he's supposed to be doing. Keep him away from choosing managers and he's a pain in the ass in a largely positive way.
It's fascinating to find that Jack Z. who was the darling of the SABR crowd for a few lines he said when he was hired, is not a SABR guy at all.
As to those predictions by Blengino, maybe I just love Cano's swing too much but I think his performance will come out just a little bit better than Blengino expects. Seattle's not that bad of a park for lefty power hitters who pull the ball and Cano's numbers weren't super dependent on Stade Fasciste III.
Regarding controlling Red Sox dysfunction, it seems to be centered around restricting Larry Lucchino to the things he's supposed to be doing. Keep him away from choosing managers and he's a pain in the ass in a largely positive way.
It's fascinating to find that Jack Z. who was the darling of the SABR crowd for a few lines he said when he was hired, is not a SABR guy at all.
As to those predictions by Blengino, maybe I just love Cano's swing too much but I think his performance will come out just a little bit better than Blengino expects. Seattle's not that bad of a park for lefty power hitters who pull the ball and Cano's numbers weren't super dependent on Stade Fasciste III.
Not as bad as Hal's negotiation with ARod (nothing could be), but that is some funny shit.mpx42 said:
Rough Carrigan said:
If you don't see the sucker at the table then it's likely you. Or something like that.
Actually, we're all pretty bad. One of the regulars brought a guy with him to the game one time who essentially makes his living playing poker at Foxwoods and elsewhere and we killed him . . because we played so badly he didn't think we'd ever do what we did. We outdumbed him or something like that. But we'd still be ashamed of a raise like the Mariners made.Montana Fan said:
I just caught this article -- what a read. The fact that Wedge and Blengino went on record adds an element of verification and legitimacy that most controversial baseball articles never have. And now Blengino is on Fangraphs ripping the Cano contract. That's a really interesting development...
It's oversimplifying, but it's almost as if Jack Z trusted his numbers guys by signing Figgins, got burned, and then went back to traditional stats because that's what he was comfortable with.
Also: still waiting on someone to photoshop Jack Z as the Wizard of Oz...
Also: still waiting on someone to photoshop Jack Z as the Wizard of Oz...
TheGoldenGreek33 said:
I think this is essentially what happened. The Mariners were really the first to try to exploit the whole "defense is the new market inefficiency" and doubled down on pitching and defense.
This plan obviously failed and, as you suggest, rather than rationally evaluate what went wrong, it really seems like Jack Z said "smell ya" and just started doing whatever GMs did in the 80s and 90s, chasing aging veterans with power potential.
Last offseason was the apotheosis of this non-strategy, when every move was basically non-sabermetric, to the point of absurdity. Signing Ibanez and Bay and trading for Morse and Morales and, in doing so, having to let go of Carp (a guy they really needed - and still do).
So, yeah, the Figgins fiasco seems like a perfect allegory to represent what actually happened to Jack Z and the Mariners.
As for the rudderless ship, we can judge the Mariners according to the team that Jack Z assembles for 2014. Logically, by making the Cano move, they are signaling that the rebuild is over and the window for contention is now open. We shall see what complementary moves the team makes.
One horrifying rumor from Ryan Divish is that it is the Mariners who have a 5 year, $75 million offer on the table for NELSON CRUZ. This came on the heels of Evan Grant's tweet which suggested that the Mariners bid against themselves in upping their offer to Cano from $225/9 to $240/10.
It's still early, but I would love to be a trading partner with the Mariners right about now. I'm sure the smart GMs are circling in the water to take advantage of the potential for poor decisionmaking.
One horrifying rumor from Ryan Divish is that it is the Mariners who have a 5 year, $75 million offer on the table for NELSON CRUZ. This came on the heels of Evan Grant's tweet which suggested that the Mariners bid against themselves in upping their offer to Cano from $225/9 to $240/10.
It's still early, but I would love to be a trading partner with the Mariners right about now. I'm sure the smart GMs are circling in the water to take advantage of the potential for poor decisionmaking.
