The Rosen Thread

sodenj5

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Rosen is owed backup QB money the next three years with a 5th year option. Money will not prevent Miami from selecting a QB next year as they’ll have plenty of cap space and Rosen is dirt cheap.

If he becomes a franchise QB, it’s an all-time great trade. If he doesn’t, they burnt a second rounder and they likely lost a bunch of games and can still draft a QB in 2020 or 2021.

Have to assume Flores and O’Shea are somewhat familiar with him as it seems the Patriots liked him pre-draft. I’m in favor of shooting their shot and being ok if he flames out and they draft someone next year.
 

mauf

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Rosen is owed backup QB money the next three years with a 5th year option. Money will not prevent Miami from selecting a QB next year as they’ll have plenty of cap space and Rosen is dirt cheap.

If he becomes a franchise QB, it’s an all-time great trade. If he doesn’t, they burnt a second rounder and they likely lost a bunch of games and can still draft a QB in 2020 or 2021.

Have to assume Flores and O’Shea are somewhat familiar with him as it seems the Patriots liked him pre-draft. I’m in favor of shooting their shot and being ok if he flames out and they draft someone next year.
The opportunity cost is also largely known, unlike trading a future pick. If Flores and O’Shea were enamored of someone who was still on the board, this trade likely wouldn’t happen.
 

sodenj5

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Rapoport just stated that the deal is not close and Miami doesn’t want to part with their second. Could end up being their 2 for Rosen and a pick.
 

BigJimEd

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There's no rush if you're the Cardinals. Wait until after the draft and teams who maybe have their eye on a particular guy will end up going in a different direction.

The leverage point to me is overstated. Or, maybe more accurately, only applies if there is one team interested. As soon as there are two teams interested everything changes.
I agree with ther general point that leverage is often overstated.
I think in this case it counts down to whether they lost a team such as Washington that might have issues been interested. Tough to tell from the outside.
I do not understand waiting until right before the draft to discuss potential trades but in the end probably didn't matter much.
 

E5 Yaz

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Rapoport just stated that the deal is not close and Miami doesn’t want to part with their second. Could end up being their 2 for Rosen and a pick.
Exactly how they should play it. If no one else is involved, don't burn a 2
 

sodenj5

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Per Schefter, ARI and MIA have not spoken today yet. Deal is not close but they will likely try again.
AKA both want a deal to happen. AZ wants a second. Miami doesn’t want to give it up.

I think ultimately a deal happens because AZ has to do something.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I tend to go the other way in these type of scenarios - meaning, when a guy seems like a steal largely due to lack of interest, instead of seeing it as some tremendous value, I start seeing it as, there must be a reason nobody wants the guy...
In the case of the Dolphins, I mentioned this earlier in our fan thread, I can see the argument for it being “value”, but i also can’t help but think, why bother. It seems for once they actually have a plan, I’d like them to stick to it. And really, if I had to bet on Rosen as a QB, i’d Actually say he’ll be a good QB...but I haven’t seen much that would make me bet on him being great. That to me is the biggest nightmare, another Tannehill type...and in terms of raw value, that certainly can be worth a 3rd round pick. It’s just not worth a half decade of my life as a fan.
Someone needs to find out how many of Rosen’s teammates went to his birthday party.
 

mauf

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And here is the other shoe dropping.
The only thing all sources agree on is no deal has been reported to the league, and until that happens nothing is official. A couple reporters are saying the Dolphins think #48 is too rich and want a pick on the back end, but a couple others are saying the deal is done and the announcement is just being held so that other teams can’t try to figure out who Arizona wants, then try to trade up in front of them.

I don’t think the latter explanation makes much sense, so I think it’s likely that the two sides are still haggling.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Doesn't it seem likely Arizona leaked this to pressure a different team picking after 48 to up its offer? That would fit with all the rumors---AZ leaks to pressure others, Dolphins want to keep price down and thus deny it.
 

sodenj5

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The only thing all sources agree on is no deal has been reported to the league, and until that happens nothing is official. A couple reporters are saying the Dolphins think #48 is too rich and want a pick on the back end, but a couple others are saying the deal is done and the announcement is just being held so that other teams can’t try to figure out who Arizona wants, then try to trade up in front of them.

I don’t think the latter explanation makes much sense, so I think it’s likely that the two sides are still haggling.
Absolutely. It may go down until Miami is on the clock to see who blinks. AZ clearly seems to be demanding Miami’s second, and they don’t want to give it up. Keim is trying to drum up a market that doesn’t exist, hoping Miami will give in.
 

DavidTai

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Doesn't it seem likely Arizona leaked this to pressure a different team picking after 48 to up its offer? That would fit with all the rumors---AZ leaks to pressure others, Dolphins want to keep price down and thus deny it.
So what would top a 'Rosen and a fourth for 48'?

About what pick would that be equivalent to? 60-70 range?
 

E5 Yaz

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Again, I have to ask ... who is Miami bidding against?
 

tims4wins

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So what would top a 'Rosen and a fourth for 48'?

About what pick would that be equivalent to? 60-70 range?
The Cards 4th rounder is 104. That is worth 86 per the Chase Stuart value chart. 48 from Miami is worth 420. So the variance is 334 which is right between 56 and 57. So the Pats offering 56 would be a similar offer. 56 + anything else would top it.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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On paper, yes. Might not work in reality
Did he have injury issues last season?

It’s not like it’s Rosen as #2 or bust, they aren’t going anywhere anyway. All they need is a warm body. The Pats kept Jimmy G still around because they felt he was good enough to at least get them to playoffs if TB went down. Not the case here. It’s just throwing away an asset to keep him because they need a backup.
 

E5 Yaz

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Did he have injury issues last season?

It’s not like it’s Rosen as #2 or bust, they aren’t going anywhere anyway. All they need is a warm body. The Pats kept Jimmy G still around because they felt he was good enough to at least get them to playoffs if TB went down. Not the case here. It’s just throwing away an asset to keep him because they need a backup.
I read your post incorrectly. I thought you were suggesting Rosen as the backup
 

moondog80

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Did he have injury issues last season?

It’s not like it’s Rosen as #2 or bust, they aren’t going anywhere anyway. All they need is a warm body. The Pats kept Jimmy G still around because they felt he was good enough to at least get them to playoffs if TB went down. Not the case here. It’s just throwing away an asset to keep him because they need a backup.
The Redskins kept Cousins around despite the presence of RGII and got three 4,000 yard seasons out of it before he left via FA.

Murray is no sure thing. Among other things, he may be an injury risk, with his lack of size, propensity to run, and the subpar OL in Arizona. If he gets hurt, having Rosen would not only help them win games, but perhaps rebuild his value as well. If they still think Rosen is legit (and that is the key), and the Murray pick was about a guy so good you just can't pass him up, the downside of passing on say, a 3rd round pick today, is minimal. Wait. Maybe Rosen does get a shot and looks good. Or maybe some QB gets hurt in training camp and all of a sudden there is renewed interest in Rosen. Or maybe he never plays and you get a 4th round pick next year instead, a pretty small dropdown.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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The Redskins kept Cousins around despite the presence of RGII and got three 4,000 yard seasons out of it before he left via FA.

Murray is no sure thing. Among other things, he may be an injury risk, with his lack of size, propensity to run, and the subpar OL in Arizona. If he gets hurt, having Rosen would not only help them win games, but perhaps rebuild his value as well. If they still think Rosen is legit (and that is the key), and the Murray pick was about a guy so good you just can't pass him up, the downside of passing on say, a 3rd round pick today, is minimal. Wait. Maybe Rosen does get a shot and looks good. Or maybe some QB gets hurt in training camp and all of a sudden there is renewed interest in Rosen. Or maybe he never plays and you get a 4th round pick next year instead, a pretty small dropdown.
So you’re going to include two seasons where Cousins had to be franchised? He was drafted specifically to be the backup, in the fourth round. Come on man, do better.
 

moondog80

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So you’re going to include two seasons where Cousins had to be franchised? He was drafted specifically to be the backup, in the fourth round. Come on man, do better.
Why do those seasons not count as a reflection of why it was worthwhile to hold onto Cousins? The point is, you can try and develop more than one QB at a time.

Which is to say nothing of if you would want the two in the same meeting rooms together.
That's a fair point, but I think you just point out to Rosen that a) he has no choice, and b) they tried to trade him, he should be humbled by the current lack of interest in him.

Again, this is predicated on them thinking Rosen is still good. Because if they do, then they think whatever pick they can get form him now, they can get, at worst, within 30 picks of that in next year's draft. And if that's the case, then a year of Rosen is way more valuable then that, especially when you factor in the chance that he rebuilds some value.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Why do those seasons not count as a reflection of why it was worthwhile to hold onto Cousins? The point is, you can try and develop more than one QB at a time.


That's a fair point, but I think you just point out to Rosen that a) he has no choice, and b) they tried to trade him, he should be humbled by the current lack of interest in him.

Again, this is predicated on them thinking Rosen is still good. Because if they do, then they think whatever pick they can get form him now, they can get, at worst, within 30 picks of that in next year's draft. And if that's the case, then a year of Rosen is way more valuable then that, especially when you factor in the chance that he rebuilds some value.
Lol ok how is he going to rebuild value as the backup? Short of an injury to Kyler, he loses value by default - one less year of control and development in a new system. This isn’t even all entirely about their assessment of Rosen - KK has been in love with Kyler since he was in high school. He’s not sitting him.

You can explain all you like to Rosen what he should do; good luck with that keeping the room harmonious. He’s a human being and just got railroaded.

This isn’t strategically developing two QBs to cash in later (nor was Cousins). This was a poorly run team effing up the value they had to recoup and slowly watching it dwindle.
 

Valek123

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This whole thing just plays to the Patriots drafting a Brady replacement next year in a deep QB draft. So many of the teams with needs this year or next drafted a QB.
 

Red Averages

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This whole thing just plays to the Patriots drafting a Brady replacement next year in a deep QB draft. So many of the teams with needs this year or next drafted a QB.
Shouldn't they be stocking up draft picks for 2020 if that was the case?
 

sodenj5

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Miami gets Rosen and a 2020 5th for pick 62.

IMO, much better value. Pretty close to a third rounder when you factor in a late 2nd with a 5th from AZ.

Well, looks like tanking is off the menu.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Miami gets Rosen and a 2020 5th for pick 62.

IMO, much better value. Pretty close to a third rounder when you factor in a late 2nd with a 5th from AZ.

Well, looks like tanking is off the menu.
Tannehill redux. Sounds like a fun way to spend the next 8 years.
 

Silverdude2167

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I really hope that next year the dolphins pick a QB in the first round and trade Rosen for a 5th. (I am saying nothing about the Dolphins or Rosen, just think it would be amazing)
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Except the Dolphins’ investment is minimal. They can cut their losses if they decide Rosen isn’t the guy, in a way they were loathe to do with a guy they used the 8th overall (iirc) pick to acquire.
I think hell perform well enough to put them in a similar position as Tannehill. Slightly above average, middle of the pack purgatory. Those kind of guys can perform well enough to sign contracts and stick around a bit too long.
 

rymflaherty

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Even if Rosen is good, by the time the team is competitive he’s going to be in the 3rd or 4th year of his rookie deal. It kind of defeats the purpose of the cheap young QB, and what I thought the front office was building toward.
For once I thought they had a plan...
I hate this team so much.
 

Red Averages

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What a steal for MIA
This.

The downside is a borderline 3rd round draft choice (and 5th next yr) and the salary of a backup QB. Meanwhile they get a free option year to see if he can be the future. If he sucks, it costs them little and they have a great draft pick in next year's draft. If he's great, you get a middle draft pick and don't need to waste it on a QB.
 

rymflaherty

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^
I agree in theory, but I don’t think that accounts for the actual worst-case-scenario and that’s what Kenny F’ing Powers was getting at - Rosen being good and not great. Which personally, I think is the most likely scenario.
So the actual worst case scenario is Rosen doing just enough to hold on to the job, never truly reaching that “Elite” level and the team missing out on next years class, where there’s 3 if not 4 guys that I’d currently much rather have than Rosen.

As long as he’s complete awful or amazing next year, than yeah...things will work out just fine.
 

sodenj5

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^
I agree in theory, but I don’t think that accounts for the actual worst-case-scenario and that’s what Kenny F’ing Powers was getting at - Rosen being good and not great. Which personally, I think is the most likely scenario.
So the actual worst case scenario is Rosen doing just enough to hold on to the job, never truly reaching that “Elite” level and the team missing out on next years class, where there’s 3 if not 4 guys that I’d currently much rather have than Rosen.

As long as he’s complete awful or amazing next year, than yeah...things will work out just fine.
I think anything short of completely amazing, and Miami is drafting a QB. If he’s ok, draft a QB and let them battle it out.

Josh Rosen wasn’t Miami’s top 10 pick. They didn’t trade up to get him. It’s completely different scenarios from AZ. He isn’t coming in as the presumed franchise QB.