The Rosen Thread

Dernells Casket n Flagon

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With Murray as the number one pick, the Cardinals are now forced to deal last year's #10 Josh Rosen, who by the way is only 5 months older than Murray.

A number of the teams that were rumored as interested in Rosen drafted QBs yesterday, so that limits the number of teams, who would seemingly be in on him.

Teams that either need a QB now or are 1-2 years out from needing to replace their current QB include:
  • Miami
  • Denver
  • Oakland
  • New England
  • Jacksonville
  • New Orleans
  • San Diego
The Giants and Redskins both taking QBs definitely reduced the leverage for Arizona and Drew Lock is still on the board as well and almost certainly to go to one of these teams. Will someone give up a 2nd rounder for Rosen or has he dropped to a 3rd plus?
 
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Dogman2

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With Foles in Jacksonville with a big money deal, I think they should be off the list. I also think Denver filling their other major holes and riding Flacco for 2 years and Oakland doing basically the same, they have their guy and will wait a year to draft a QB.
 

amfox1

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I agree on JAX. They are in win-it-now mode. I disagree on DEN. I think Lock's floor is 41 (DEN) and wouldn't be surprised if DEN trades up tonight to get him.

Lock and Grier will likely go off the board in the 2nd round. MIA picks 48th, so if Rosen is not traded by then, then I would like to see the Patriots offer 73 and 243 for Rosen. I think NO is a wildcard to trade 62 for Rosen.

I think if ARI doesn't get pick 78 (MIA) or higher, they'll keep him into training camp.
 

pappymojo

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Holding on to Rosen into training camp seems like a big mistake. 1) it opens up potential for drama (especially if Murray struggles) & 2) it limits the opportunity to train Rosen up for the acquiring team.

I would be okay with trading the equivalent of a 2019 3rd / 2020 2nd.
 

Dernells Casket n Flagon

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With Foles in Jacksonville with a big money deal, I think they should be off the list. I also think Denver filling their other major holes and riding Flacco for 2 years and Oakland doing basically the same, they have their guy and will wait a year to draft a QB.
Completely right on this. For some reason, I thought Foles was on a 2 year deal rather than 4.
 

dcmissle

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Any team that (a) genuinely views him as a high-end starter and (b) has a need will be crazy not to give them a second rounder and be done with it. The difference between a second and a third isn’t going to amount to a damn thing if he is playing well in 5 years.

Have no idea which teams check boxes a and b.
 

sodenj5

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For Miami, their leverage is 2020. They have an obvious need at QB, but next year’s class is absolutely stacked.

That’s why I don’t see them trading a second rounder. And that’s also why the Cardinals were absolute fools for not trading him before selecting Murray.

Edit: there’s a report from SI that came out this morning that said the Cardinals GM didn’t start fielding phone calls on Rosen until the draft started. He really thought they were getting a first for him and two of the three teams previously interested drafted QBs.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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For Miami, their leverage is 2020. They have an obvious need at QB, but next year’s class is absolutely stacked.

That’s why I don’t see them trading a second rounder. And that’s also why the Cardinals were absolute fools for not trading him before selecting Murray.
I just don't think he makes sense for Miami from a team building perspective unless they're viewing him as a total flyer to whom they're not committed at all. Everything else the Dolphins have done suggests that they're essentially bottoming out and looking toward rebuilding and trying to contend in 2021-2022 onward. By that time Rosen will be expensive and you lose all the benefit of getting a very good QB on a rookie contract. Drafting a guy in 2020 or 2021 and starting the rookie contract clock at that point makes a lot more sense unless your'e just 100% sold on Rosen, which I doubt they are.
 

finnVT

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For Miami, their leverage is 2020. They have an obvious need at QB, but next year’s class is absolutely stacked.
With the caveat that this far out a massive number of things can change... it seems likely that Fromm, Tagovailoa, and Hebert could all be top 5 picks next year. Is the class deep after those 3? If not, this strategy only really works if are pretty sure you will be picking right at the top.
 

sodenj5

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I just don't think he makes sense for Miami from a team building perspective unless they're viewing him as a total flyer to whom they're not committed at all. Everything else the Dolphins have done suggests that they're essentially bottoming out and looking toward rebuilding and trying to contend in 2021-2022 onward. By that time Rosen will be expensive and you lose all the benefit of getting a very good QB on a rookie contract. Drafting a guy in 2020 or 2021 and starting the rookie contract clock at that point makes a lot more sense unless your'e just 100% sold on Rosen, which I doubt they are.
For me, it’s 100% a flyer. He can play in 2019 and they can evaluate him for a full season. If he’s garbage, they lose a bunch of games and draft a QB in 2020. If he’s good, they paid pennies on the dollar for a franchise QB.

Yes they lose a year of cost controlled contract, but you take that with a third. Essentially a no lose situation for Miami.

Edit: FWIW, I really like Rosen and think he’s been ludicrously underrated based on playing a handful of games for the worst team in the league.
 
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Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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For me, it’s 100% a flyer. He can play in 2019 and they can evaluate him for a full season. If he’s garbage, they lose a bunch of games and draft a QB in 2020. If he’s good, they paid pennies on the dollar for a franchise QB.

Yes they lose a year of cost controlled contract, but you take that with a third. Essentially a no lose situation for Miami.

Edit: FWIW, I really like Rosen and think he’s been ludicrously underrated based on playing a handful of games for the worst team in the league.
Agreed, if they can get him for a third then its a flyer well worth taking.

I'm kind of unsure whether Steve Keim would do that or just keep him at that point. He seems like the kind of guy who might rather come up with some convoluted reason for keeping Rosen than trade him for a third and potentially look bad.
 

BaseballJones

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Sometimes the other guy just needs to save face. I think they need to deal Rosen as they’ve cast their lots with Murray. So that gives them little leverage. But saving face is a big deal sometimes so any trade offer to them should include a little extra to grease those skids. In other words, understand the psychology of the Cardinals at this point and don’t try to squeeze them too hard.
 

sodenj5

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Agreed, if they can get him for a third then its a flyer well worth taking.

I'm kind of unsure whether Steve Keim would do that or just keep him at that point. He seems like the kind of guy who might rather come up with some convoluted reason for keeping Rosen than trade him for a third and potentially look bad.
Keim has already made himself look pretty bad hiring a coach and trading up for a QB in one year then firing said coach and drafting another QB the next year.

Pretty sure we’re beyond the point of no return as far as that goes.
 

tims4wins

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Keim has already made himself look pretty bad hiring a coach and trading up for a QB in one year then firing said coach and drafting another QB the next year.

Pretty sure we’re beyond the point of no return as far as that goes.
This has to be unprecedented, no? Hiring a coach and drafting a QB in the top 10 and moving on from BOTH in the next season??

When you think about it from this lens, he shouldn't have a job.
 

Zincman

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While it's true that Rosen was playing without a full deck in AZ, that doesn't necessarily mean that Rosen is considered a top level QB of the future. There is now a lot of tape on Rosen, giving evaluators a clearer picture of what they can project in him. Salary considerations aside, the Cards have leverage only if a team in need sees a bright future for Rosen. If they see an average to below average player going forward, the Cards leverage is severely reduced and there will be no second rounders for AZ. Third round flyer? Maybe, but less if the needy aren't impressed. Dcmissle his it right. If you see great value in Rosen, give up the 2nd and run.
 

dcmissle

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Sometimes the other guy just needs to save face. I think they need to deal Rosen as they’ve cast their lots with Murray. So that gives them little leverage. But saving face is a big deal sometimes so any trade offer to them should include a little extra to grease those skids. In other words, understand the psychology of the Cardinals at this point and don’t try to squeeze them too hard.
+1. People should channel Bob Kraft on this point. The best deals are ones where you leave a little something on the table.

I have no idea whether the Pats are in QB buying mode and what they think of Rosen. But assuming only for the sake of argument that you have green lights on both, this is a situation where you give them the last pick of Round 2.
 

sodenj5

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Numerous teams reached out to the Cardinals over the last few months re a Josh Rosen trade. Keim didn't get back to them about what it would cost until *yesterday*. Cards were still posturing that they might take someone else, like Q. Williams, instead of getting value for Rosen.

Again, Keim is a joke of a GM. Literally everyone knew they were taking Murray.
 

bsj

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You used a 1 for Rosen last year. He was apparently so bad that you have moved on already. You cannot realistically expect a 1 or even, IMO, a good 2. Seems an early 3 is the best case. Maybe throw in a 6 or something.
 

moondog80

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You need a backup QB, teams are often to willing to spend a 3rd round pick for one. If they don't get the right offer, it's not outrageous for Arizona to keep him on the roster for a couple of years, any more than it was for the Redskins to keep Kirk Cousins. Especially if this less about Rosen failing than it is Murray just being too good to pass up.
 

singaporesoxfan

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For me, it’s 100% a flyer. He can play in 2019 and they can evaluate him for a full season. If he’s garbage, they lose a bunch of games and draft a QB in 2020. If he’s good, they paid pennies on the dollar for a franchise QB.
What if he’s serviceable though? Like, just good enough to get you 7-8 wins and hurt your draft position?
 

RedOctober3829

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You used a 1 for Rosen last year. He was apparently so bad that you have moved on already. You cannot realistically expect a 1 or even, IMO, a good 2. Seems an early 3 is the best case. Maybe throw in a 6 or something.
The Cardinals have absolutely no leverage. The 2 QBs will not co-exist so Keim can't even begin to say that he's keeping Rosen. He will have to take what he can get for Rosen and alleviate the problem.
 

bsj

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The Cardinals have absolutely no leverage. The 2 QBs will not co-exist so Keim can't even begin to say that he's keeping Rosen. He will have to take what he can get for Rosen and alleviate the problem.
He played it terribly. Shop him a week ago and realistically leave the door open on taking someone else. You at least have a TINY bit of leverage. Maybe you find someone willing to do a mid to late 2. But Once you make the pick, you are right, you are screwed. Terrible job by the GM
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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There's no rush if you're the Cardinals. Wait until after the draft and teams who maybe have their eye on a particular guy will end up going in a different direction.

The leverage point to me is overstated. Or, maybe more accurately, only applies if there is one team interested. As soon as there are two teams interested everything changes.
 

RedOctober3829

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There's no rush if you're the Cardinals. Wait until after the draft and teams who maybe have their eye on a particular guy will end up going in a different direction.

The leverage point to me is overstated. Or, maybe more accurately, only applies if there is one team interested. As soon as there are two teams interested everything changes.
No one is going to offer a 2nd round pick for him. They all know Keim has to get rid of him. Might he get a 3rd instead of a 4th if multiple teams are interested? Maybe.
 

maufman

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There's no rush if you're the Cardinals. Wait until after the draft and teams who maybe have their eye on a particular guy will end up going in a different direction.

The leverage point to me is overstated. Or, maybe more accurately, only applies if there is one team interested. As soon as there are two teams interested everything changes.
Depends on how much pressure Kingsbury feels to turn the situation in Phoenix around quickly. Your typical new coach, even taking over a bad situation, is expected to produce a playoff appearance within three years. Considering that most rookies don’t contribute much, the difference between a pick this year and one next year is material.

Of course, the situation Kingsbury has inherited is beyond bad, so he might have a bit more rope than the norm for a first-time coach.
 

sodenj5

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What if he’s serviceable though? Like, just good enough to get you 7-8 wins and hurt your draft position?
IMO, next year’s class is stacked enough where they can trade up to get a guy. Probably not Tua, but maybe Fromm or Herbert or Love.
 

sodenj5

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There's no rush if you're the Cardinals. Wait until after the draft and teams who maybe have their eye on a particular guy will end up going in a different direction.

The leverage point to me is overstated. Or, maybe more accurately, only applies if there is one team interested. As soon as there are two teams interested everything changes.
What’s the incentive to move up from their asking price though? The Patriots don’t have to have a QB in this draft. Miami doesn’t. Cincy doesn’t.

The reason most of these teams are interested is because of perceived value. His value declines as they go through the offseason and he misses training camp and preseason with a new team.
 

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I tend to go the other way in these type of scenarios - meaning, when a guy seems like a steal largely due to lack of interest, instead of seeing it as some tremendous value, I start seeing it as, there must be a reason nobody wants the guy...
In the case of the Dolphins, I mentioned this earlier in our fan thread, I can see the argument for it being “value”, but i also can’t help but think, why bother. It seems for once they actually have a plan, I’d like them to stick to it. And really, if I had to bet on Rosen as a QB, i’d Actually say he’ll be a good QB...but I haven’t seen much that would make me bet on him being great. That to me is the biggest nightmare, another Tannehill type...and in terms of raw value, that certainly can be worth a 3rd round pick. It’s just not worth a half decade of my life as a fan.
 

snowmanny

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There's no rush if you're the Cardinals. Wait until after the draft and teams who maybe have their eye on a particular guy will end up going in a different direction.

The leverage point to me is overstated. Or, maybe more accurately, only applies if there is one team interested. As soon as there are two teams interested everything changes.
Maybe they are at Belichickian levels of being able to tune out the noise, but Rosen will be the first and last question asked of the Cardinals every day until he's gone. And the likelihood of him being the good soldier though all this seems to be dropping. So sure, you can hold on to him and endure that crap because you think you might get the number 40 pick in the 2020 draft instead of the number 60 pick in this draft but most teams wouldn't think it worth the trouble. And personally I believe that if they hold onto him it's probably because they are miscalculating and waiting for an (even better) offer that will never materialize.
 

DrewDawg

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There's no rush if you're the Cardinals. Wait until after the draft and teams who maybe have their eye on a particular guy will end up going in a different direction.

The leverage point to me is overstated. Or, maybe more accurately, only applies if there is one team interested. As soon as there are two teams interested everything changes.
You are literally the only person I've seen taking this side of it. And while that doesn't make you wrong, everyone, from insiders, to media guys thinks they've screwed up massively.
 

tims4wins

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You are literally the only person I've seen taking this side of it. And while that doesn't make you wrong, everyone, from insiders, to media guys thinks they've screwed up massively.
It's not ALL that different from the Jimmy situation. Seems like the Pats could have done better trading him before the 2017 draft than right before Halloween that year. Timing (and leverage) is everything.

I don't want to re-open that debate thought.
 

ehaz

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This team needs a ton of depth across the front 7 so I’m not a huge fan of spending one of the 2nd rounders. They’re going to get ride of him and everyone knows it. 3rd round - sure. If another team offers more, so be it and I’d be fine taking a flyer on a guy like Rypien later on instead.
 

Cousin Walter

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People seem to forget that Sam Bradford fetches a 1st rounder a week before the start of the 2016 season. It's possible an injury in the preseason forces a team to make a desperation trade better than anything ARI has been offered so far.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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You are literally the only person I've seen taking this side of it. And while that doesn't make you wrong, everyone, from insiders, to media guys thinks they've screwed up massively.
We just don't know what we don't know. Often when I hear experts talking about negotiation I get the sense that they have never negotiated anything in their lives.

Here's one thing we don't know. How did the Cardinals grade Murray versus their next 10 top players? If they have Jonah Williams at 92 and Murray at 95 then their moves start to make a lot more sense. It's potentially worth it to them to see what they might be able to get for pick number 1. The fact that they didn't ultimately do a deal means they didn't get enough, but they did give themselves the opportunity and that opportunity has value.

Twitter only views negotiations and drafts in hindsight. It's absurd. If that's the way we judged insurance then buying homeowners insurance would almost always be stupid because in hindsight you paid for something you didn't need for 20 years because your house didn't get carried away by a flood. Having Rosen gave the Cardinals options, and the question now is whether the delta between what Rosen may have been worth pre-draft and what he may be worth post-draft is worth that insurance. And that's a question none of us can know for many reasons. Not the least of which is that trades you don't make always were supposedly fantastic. Sure, the lore will be that teams were prepared to give up the moon for Rosen pre-draft, but anyone who followed the Jimmy G saga knows that all of it is bullshit and the people claiming to know have no idea.

It's also true that going into drafts everyone has pie in the sky ideas about what they are going to get. Maybe someone had their eye on Jones and expected he'd be there and so now is in the market for Rosen when they didn't think they'd be. Maybe the Giants never would have traded for Rosen so long as they thought they had the possibility to get Jones. Either is just as likely, and we have no clue.
 

RedOctober3829

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Well this is surprising at least to me. Miami may trade the #48 pick for Rosen.


Multiple sources say the Dolphins are close to a deal for QB Josh Rosen, and that a deal may actually be tentatively done. Arizona would get pick No. 48 from Miami.
 

sodenj5

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Well this is surprising at least to me. Miami may trade the #48 pick for Rosen.


Multiple sources say the Dolphins are close to a deal for QB Josh Rosen, and that a deal may actually be tentatively done. Arizona would get pick No. 48 from Miami.
For me, I don’t love 48. That suggests he’s more than a one year rental. It doesn’t have to be the case. If he’s bad they can still drop him and select a QB in 2020, but that becomes a harder pill to swallow.

Either way, I thought highly of Rosen last year and still do. A second is still a steep discount.
 

E5 Yaz

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I guess the question is ... who's Miami bidding against?
 

InstaFace

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It's not ALL that different from the Jimmy situation. Seems like the Pats could have done better trading him before the 2017 draft than right before Halloween that year. Timing (and leverage) is everything.

I don't want to re-open that debate thought.
At least there, you had value to keeping him on the roster (Brady injury insurance). No similar conditions apply to 21yo Kyler Murray insurance. Rosen has negative value to remaining on the roster due to the opportunity cost in keeping him there.
 

Cellar-Door

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People seem to forget that Sam Bradford fetches a 1st rounder a week before the start of the 2016 season. It's possible an injury in the preseason forces a team to make a desperation trade better than anything ARI has been offered so far.
Bradford was an overpay because MIN saw themselves as the best team in the division and needed a plug and play QB to step in or the season was a loss. Rosen certainly doesn't look like a plug and play starter for a playoff team, so the valuation is very different.


For me, I don’t love 48. That suggests he’s more than a one year rental. It doesn’t have to be the case. If he’s bad they can still drop him and select a QB in 2020, but that becomes a harder pill to swallow.

Either way, I thought highly of Rosen last year and still do. A second is still a steep discount.
Rosen is so cheap with his bonus already payed, that you can given him his shot later this season, and even if you decide to draft someone else he's a cheaper better option as the backup than many others. Also, if he shows anything this season he can be moved again for not much less than a 2nd anyway.
 

tims4wins

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At least there, you had value to keeping him on the roster (Brady injury insurance). No similar conditions apply to 21yo Kyler Murray insurance. Rosen has negative value to remaining on the roster due to the opportunity cost in keeping him there.
True