Reports are he was pumping out 110+ EV's on the regular and was an EV monster at all three levels. Not really concerned at all.
The Rookies
- Thread starter Sin Duda
- Start date
For reference, 3 teams (ARI, LAD, and NYY) exceeded 800 runs and they won 89, 98, and 94 games.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you want to do instead of promoting Anthony and/or Campbell — perhaps I'm arguing with the wrong person — but some here are arguing that we should be acquiring a veteran hitter like Alex Bregman or Nolan Arenado.
The thing is, Alex Bregman's last five seasons average just under an .800 OPS (.795; I'm cutting off 2019, when he was much better than that, for, uhh, reasons). Is he going to be better suddenly at age 31 after his walk rate collapsed? Why? If an .800 OPS isn't good enough (when Campbell does it) to get us to the postseason, what is the case for acquiring Bregman? I get that plenty of his value comes from defense at 3B; of course, some here want to play him at 2B. (Arenado is a similar value proposition to Bregman, but worse in recent seasons and older and thus less likely to rebound.)
I get that people are wary of his high BABIP, but based on his tiny AAA (and thus statcast accessible) sample, Campbell has a considerably higher max EV (but slightly lower average EV), higher HH%, and higher barrel rate than Bregman, all fast-stabilizing stats. It took him 52 PAs in AAA to hit a ball 2 MPH harder than any Bregman has hit in his MLB career. The quality of contact he showed in the minors is just better than even many good MLB hitters, and he's only 22. That fact plus a very low chase rate plus a very high contact rate are why he is a top hitting prospect despite a deeply weird-looking swing. Meanwhile, Anthony's maxEV is even higher than Campbell's, his chase rate is almost as good, and his contact rate is almost as good — and he did that in AAA at age 20.
So my view is that we do not need any more infielders or outfielders, but that an upgrade at catcher would be great if such a player is available; I would also like to add one more reliever to pitch in the late innings. Acquiring an imperfect fit for such a player on an expensive commitment is just acquiring the next albatross contract we'll be looking to unload in a few years (at the cost of a draft pick), given how much young position player talent we're looking to promote.
There are a few things that would make me change my mind:
- if a worthwhile trade for Yoshida were possible, but I don't believe that it would be unless and until he shows more impact in 2025 than he did in 2023 and 2024.
- if a potential core piece like Abreu, Rafaela, or Casas needs to go in a trade to bring in The Catcher of the Future.
- if Bregman will sign a considerably less onerous deal than I deem realistic.
Agree with most of this, but small quibble. If any of Anthony, Campbell, Mayer wins ROY that would be an excellent outcome.
Also if any of those 3 tear the cover off the ball in Spring Training, they should break with the Sox.
I don't mind the Sox not chasing Free Agents against 29 other MLB teams (in fact, I encourage it) BUT when it comes to prospects, pay up and buy out some FA years. They own a non-competitive edge on the early years, exploit it.
Before the current big four (now three), here are the last decades' position players who appeared in the top-5 in the SoxProspects rankings, along with their top preseason national ranking (because baseball-reference has those; this methodology severely underrates Betts) and career bWAR to date.
Andrew Benintendi (#1, 15.3)
Yoan Moncada (#1, 14.3)
Xander Bogaerts (#2, 40.8)
Rafael Devers (#13, 22.5)
Triston Casas (#16, 2.9)
Blake Swihart (#17, -0.3)
Manuel Margot (#18, 11.3)
Jackie Bradley, Jr. (#23, 17)
Jeter Downs (#49, -0.6)
Garin Cecchini (#51, 0.2)
Mookie Betts (#62, 69.6)
Bobby Dalbec (#75, -0.8)
Michael Chavis (#79, 0.2)
Jarren Duran (#81, 10)
Gilberto Jimenez (unranked, 0)
Sam Travis (unranked, -1.1)
Daniel Flores (unranked, 0)
What I see here is that the top-30 types all panned out to various degrees except Swihart; we know that story. The back half of the top-100 includes Betts — who was much higher in midseason updates and then quickly lost prospect status, so that is a bit misleading — and Duran, who looked like a bust until he didn't, and then a bunch of guys who mostly got ineffectual cups of coffee, and then Daniel Flores, who tragically passed away shortly after signing.
Andrew Benintendi (#1, 15.3)
Yoan Moncada (#1, 14.3)
Xander Bogaerts (#2, 40.8)
Rafael Devers (#13, 22.5)
Triston Casas (#16, 2.9)
Blake Swihart (#17, -0.3)
Manuel Margot (#18, 11.3)
Jackie Bradley, Jr. (#23, 17)
Jeter Downs (#49, -0.6)
Garin Cecchini (#51, 0.2)
Mookie Betts (#62, 69.6)
Bobby Dalbec (#75, -0.8)
Michael Chavis (#79, 0.2)
Jarren Duran (#81, 10)
Gilberto Jimenez (unranked, 0)
Sam Travis (unranked, -1.1)
Daniel Flores (unranked, 0)
What I see here is that the top-30 types all panned out to various degrees except Swihart; we know that story. The back half of the top-100 includes Betts — who was much higher in midseason updates and then quickly lost prospect status, so that is a bit misleading — and Duran, who looked like a bust until he didn't, and then a bunch of guys who mostly got ineffectual cups of coffee, and then Daniel Flores, who tragically passed away shortly after signing.
Thanks for doing this digging. To add to the analysis, only really three complete busts in the top ten there (Downs, Swihart, Cecchini). 8 out of 17 have had 10 fWAR or more, with Casas still early career.
The group that interests me most here is the the guys with 10-20 fWAR-guys who had decent careers but largely unremarkable ones--guys who "hit" but we didn't make bank on.
Moncada and Benintendi both strike me as victims of the injury bug. Benintendi obviously has had his issues with tendinitis and a hamate bone injury that have hindered his fielding and hitting. Moncada basically hasn't been able to stay on the field. Not impossible they have late career renaissances, it's happened before, but basically they appear cooked.
Duran is still mid-career, so it's an open question what else he's going to do. JBJ was an outstanding fielder and a rollercoaster ride of a hitter (and a good example of how Ceddanne can have an excellent career even if his hitting never shapes up). Margot is interesting, another good fielder who was never really impressive as a hitter above A+ ball, but maintained his pedigree/ranking nonetheless, and has made a decent career out of his fielding.
Oh I think it is the best course of action at this point but this isn't the last piece to a real contender like a lot of people are implying. They are better than last year but still aren't really a serious team.
They are still built to look sort of in it through July and then fall off the wagon in August and September.
Agree 100% on this.
And WRT Rafaela (mentioned in another post above in comparison to JBJ), I think JBJ seems to be his floor - 4th outfielder/super utility type. His ceiling is somethin like Mike Cameron, if he can cut down on the high chase and K rates. Odds are that he's more likely the former rather than the latter, but I'm holding out hope. The question is how much rope he gets (if any) before he's replaced in the OF by Anthony. This plays into my willingness to consider dealing Abreu in a package for Alcantara, although I suppose you could just as easily put Rafaela in that package in his place.
That's pretty optimistic "floor" for Rafaela. Jackie Bradley had a full season at a 118 OPS+ and two other injury shortened seasons at 119 and 116. If Rafaela ever was able to do that, he'd be an All Star.
I was thinking more about what JBJ ultimately demonstrated himself to be, not the flashes that he showed.
JBJ also started his career with a .548 OPS through his rookie season, when he was a year older than Ceddanne.
My stoner theory with Rafaela is that his chances of growing into a consistent- at least for 5-6 more seasons before he completely collapses- is that his bat/eye speed becomes elite. I don't think he'll ever be a good patient hitter. He might get a little better there, but I think it's more likely he'll foul off more balls, continue to have a high K rate but also a very high batting average and above average SLG (for a guy of his size). His speed will help him get on base more. I really could see him having a few .300 BA heavy seasons ending up around .305BA .325OBP .425SLG which combined with his defense and flexibility would make him incredibly valueable.
The one issue though is that he'll likely never really turn in the incredible GG+ caliber defense at CF, SS or 2B that he's capable of because he'll never get consistent time at any position unless there's an injury, so his contribution there won't show up as much to show off... but for Sox fans he'll be an incredible plug at key positions. No more Valdezes or Reyeses there if Story or Campbell or Grissom go down.
JBJ is a weird case. He seemed, to my recollection, to be extremely streaky. He had an exceptional rise through the minor leagues with very impressive hitting numbers, good walk rates and low K rates, and then seemed to completely lose his cool in the majors. It wasn't just that he was having the normal kind of trouble adjusting that a lot of players do, he seemed to be completely in his own head.
His K rate in triple A in 2015 was nearly half of what it was in the majors. (14% versus 27%) And he was really good in 2015! We all kind of felt and hoped the 20152-2016 guy was here to stay...but the K rates went back up and the BB rates went down.
I brought up Ceddanne as a comparison merely because players with great defense can hang around and be useful even if their offensive upside only materializes intermittently. Take a guy like Jose Iglesias, who has a career fWAR of 17 despite only ever posting a fWAR over 2 twice (and yes, I know these numers are crude).
Thing is, Ceddanne never had the plate discipline JBJ showed, which makes me skeptical he'll have JBJ's peak. But it could happen!
I don't think Rafaela is going to ever hit over .275, nevermind .300, unless he cuts his K rate by 10% like Wong did last year.
Here's the guys who hit over .300 last year. None of them had K rates over 25%, and only 3 of them had K rates over 20%: and those three are named Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Marcell Ozuna.
Basically, to manage a .305 BA with a K% of 25% would mean he would have to make some of the best contact in the league.
Meanwhile, here's what he did last year:
My dream for Rafaela is that he becomes a poor man's Alfonso Soriano at the plate. He played 16 MLB seasons and had a career 28.6 WAR (not nearly the defender that little Raffy is/will be). A career .270 hitter with a .319 OBP. Slight build, super quick wrists, free swinger. I'm certainly not saying he will put up the offensive numbers that AS did. But other than an outlier season where he had 46 HR and 67 BB, it was in 728 plate appearances. Rafaela won't get that out of the 8-9 hole. AS never had 50 BB in any other season and he led off a lot. In fact, the season he had the most PA (741) he walked a total of 23 times. Don't forget little Raffy just played his age 23 season, and was bounced between 2 of the hardest positions on the field and probably had around 150 more PA than the Cora would've preferred out of necessity due to all the injuries. He now has had a full offseason to work on plate discipline and I expect him to be better. .265/.310/.445/.755 with his glove, arm, speed and versatility would be very valuable.
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