The Rookies

[Sin Duda]

There's < 30 days to Truck Day (2/5). The Sox will surely sign a reliever and maybe a RHH power threat, but there are lots of threads for that.

Who do we expect to make their debut in 2025? MLB.com has a Red Sox player as the #1 choice for RoY, but it's not Kristian Campbell, it's Roman Anthony (Campbell is #5). I'd consider Campbell higher because I think he has a better chance to break Spring Training with the parent club.

How did our 2024 rookies do beyond Abreu?

 

[Yo La Tengo]

I'd argue the extra year of control is more valuable than chasing the ROY draft pick, so I anticipate Campbell, Anthony, and Mayer will start the year in AAA and stay there until it is late enough that there is no chance they could win the ROY (see Paul Skenes last year for how not to handle this situation). This also allows Grissom and Rafaela to show if they can fill the 2B and CF spots.

Due to injuries and poor performance, there will almost certainly be space for Campbell, Anthony, and Mayer to make their MLB debuts later in 2025, if their AAA performance warrants that promotion.
And if the entire lineup is healthy and producing... let's celebrate winning the AL East and those three can come up in September.

 

[marcoscutaro]

I wonder when “too late” would be - you might think missing two months is enough, but Buster Posey was called up on May 29 2010 & won NL ROTY over Jason Heyward even though Heyward played a full season & had considerably more WAR. Especially if the rookie class is underwhelming. Anyway one of the kids might be impossible to leave off the roster after ST, but in general I agree that it’s a big ask to debut them and ask them to contribute meaningfully immediately in a league where the jump from triple A pitching to big league pitching is as big as its ever been.

 

[OCD SS]

Any of the big 3 will need to be added to the 40-man as well as the 26-man roster, both of which are already crowded. Unless something quite surprising happens with the 3B/ 1B/ LF/ DH situation and a big trade is made, the Sox are going loose people off the roster over the entire year in order to add them and bring them up.

Mayer has not actually played at AAA, so I expect he’ll definitely start there as he builds back up (baring another over the top rash of injuries), so I don’t think we can set him aside. I do think the Sox will try for a PPI pick, but I also think they’ll do what’s ultimately best for the player development,so it really depends on where Anthony & Campbell fit & how the team goes anbout it about it. I think Anthony is better, but the OF is already more crowded. I’m less sure of Campbell’s track record, but he’s a RHH and could conceivably play all over the diamond. He’s probably fighting Grissom for 2B, but I can also see him in LF or at SS (again, if Story goes down early). I don’t think he’ll be a good defender necessarily, but playing all over might give him an edge.

My preferred plan is for the team to give these two every opportunity to make the club during ST. If they hit and they’re the best option, give them the job and take aim at the pick. If they pull a Jackson Holiday, you can still send them back down for long enough to get the extra year of service time, and then you also know that they’re probably out of the running for ROY anyway. I just don’t think you can plan to take a shot at the MVP picks, those will just be lucky windfalls.

 

[Sin Duda]

And I think someone mentioned in a separate thread that Skenes got credit for a full year because he won RoY. So the Sox would not only hold them back until late April to give them a chance of an extra year of control, but they'd have to hope the player doesn't win RoY.

 

[Margo McCready]

Cross-posting from the other thread as it fits better here.

They didn’t can Dombrowski, bring in Chaim to rebuild the farm, and then pivot to Breslow to finish off the rebuild with pitching only to kick the rebuild can down the road just as it’s on the cusp of bearing fruit.

Campbell’s going to be the second baseman. Anthony’s going to start in left and then slide over to right when they shield Abreu from lefties. Rafaela’s going to get tons of playing time backing up shortstop and the outfield. Grissom will also get tons of playing time backing up all the non-SS infield positions and spelling Yoshida vs. lefties. When injuries inevitably strike, Rafaela and Grissom slide into starting roles and Romy and Hamilton backfill the utility roles from AAA.

They’ll want Anthony and Campbell giving them a shot at extra draft picks by competing for RoY, which means they’re playing in April. And besides, why not rip the bandaid off and get them acclimated to big league pitching ASAP? The sooner they do, the sooner the organization becomes a real problem for the rest of MLB. Everything they’ve done in the last five years has been for this moment. The ant farm is built, time to see what the ants turn it into.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I'd argue the extra year of control is more valuable than chasing the ROY draft pick, so I anticipate Campbell, Anthony, and Mayer will start the year in AAA and stay there until it is late enough that there is no chance they could win the ROY (see Paul Skenes last year for how not to handle this situation).

I understand what you’re saying, but man, this is an incredibly cynical way to follow a sport. Skenes games were about the only fun that Pirates fans had last year. I’m glad for them that they had some enjoyment instead of worrying about getting that extra year of control.

And I hope that if any of the CAM trio is ready and can help the big league team, the Sox bring them up. Extra year of control be damned.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

And I hope that if any of the CAM trio is ready and can help the big league team, the Sox bring them up. Extra year of control be damned.

I agree- if the Sox have a rookie ready to meaningfully contribute at a position of need, promote them and ignore the ROY draft pick and year of control issues. But I think the team should give Rafaela and Grissom at least 150-200 plate appearances before that decision gets made.

 

[burstnbloom]

I think you guys are undervaluing the value of the pick they could get just by playing 2 of the top 5 ROY favorites and having one of them win. I would understand the consternation if their performance had been just good, but Roman Anthony walked 15% of the time last year over 2 levels (18% in AAA), and Campbell walked 14.3% (15% in AAA). These guys were not even really challenged last year. I see the comparisons on this board to past prospects and I can't stop saying that "regard" does not equal performance. I find it interesting that everyone cites Jackson Holiday as a reason to hold these guys back (.790 OPS in AAA in 91 PA before being called up) and not the other two Jacksons.

Jackson Merrill struggled to start the season for SD but put up a 5.0 fWAR season as a 21 year old rookie last year. He has a 159 wRC+ in the second half last year. He was never as highly regarded as Roman Anthony is now and had a lesser performance in the minors the year prior than Roman did in 2024. Jackson Chourio put up a 3.9 fWAR season as a 20 year old. He is exactly the kind of prospect Roman Anthony is. They both got robbed a PPI pick by Paul Skenes but they have 3 more years where those players could earn another pick by placing top 3 in MVP voting. The Royals will pick 28th this year due to Bobby Witt doing that before hitting his arbitration window. A top 30 pick and ~ $3m in pool value is A LOT of value to chase. Roman Anthony, himself, was picked with a later comp pick and paid less than that.

The projection systems all have both of these guys being solid contributors THIS year and there is just as much chance that they outperform than underperform. To be eligible to gain those picks for next year or the following 3 years, they need to be up within the first 2 weeks of the season. It seems like an absolute no brainer to me from a long term team building perspective.

Edit- realizing I didn’t actually make my point. If you have a prospect like this and you believe they will end the season on the roster, you need to call them up early to go for the pick. The value is so significant that it’s better to be a month early than a month late.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

I think you guys are undervaluing the value of the pick they could get just by playing 2 of the top 5 ROY favorites and having one of them win. I would understand the consternation if their performance had been just good, but Roman Anthony walked 15% of the time last year over 2 levels (18% in AAA), and Campbell walked 14.3% (15% in AAA). These guys were not even really challenged last year. I see the comparisons on this board to past prospects and I can't stop saying that "regard" does not equal performance. I find it interesting that everyone cites Jackson Holiday as a reason to hold these guys back (.790 OPS in AAA in 91 PA before being called up) and not the other two Jacksons.

Jackson Merrill struggled to start the season for SD but put up a 5.0 fWAR season as a 21 year old rookie last year. He has a 159 wRC+ in the second half last year. He was never as highly regarded as Roman Anthony is now and had a lesser performance in the minors the year prior than Roman did in 2024. Jackson Chourio put up a 3.9 fWAR season as a 20 year old. He is exactly the kind of prospect Roman Anthony is. They both got robbed a PPI pick by Paul Skenes but they have 3 more years where those players could earn another pick by placing top 3 in MVP voting. The Royals will pick 28th this year due to Bobby Witt doing that before hitting his arbitration window. A top 30 pick and ~ $3m in pool value is A LOT of value to chase. Roman Anthony, himself, was picked with a later comp pick and paid less than that.

The projection systems all have both of these guys being solid contributors THIS year and there is just as much chance that they outperform than underperform. To be eligible to gain those picks for next year or the following 3 years, they need to be up within the first 2 weeks of the season. It seems like an absolute no brainer to me from a long term team building perspective.

Edit- realizing I didn’t actually make my point. If you have a prospect like this and you believe they will end the season on the roster, you need to call them up early to go for the pick. The value is so significant that it’s better to be a month early than a month late.

For me, it is time for the Sox to see who on the roster is a part of the long term plan while competing in the playoffs. This year. So, the days of decisions based on future draft picks are behind them. If any of these guys are ready to go from day 1 and give the Sox the best chance to win- bring em up, regardless of ROY draft pick compensation and/or years of control. But the impetus has to be winning games while helping these guys develop (in order to win more games).

 

[Midnight Ryder Jones]

NM

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

How did our 2024 rookies do beyond Abreu?

Rafaela, Slaten, and Fitts all looked good as rookies last year, too.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Rafaela, Slaten, and Fitts all looked good as rookies last year, too.

Did Fitts actually qualify as a rookie or would he be one in '25 now?
Slaten definitely should be considered a rookie success.
I'd agree with Rafaela but some here think he's the worst player ever.

 

[simplicio]

Rafaela, Slaten, and Fitts all looked good as rookies last year, too.

And Hamilton.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

And Hamilton.

Up for debate obviously, but he's the one guy that I think has more value to a different team than the Sox going forward and hope they trade him. He could be a starting 2B somewhere but is possibly 3rd in line with the Sox there behind Grissom, Campbell and Rafaela... possibly even Story if Mayer destroys AAA?

 

[YTF]

I understand what you’re saying, but man, this is an incredibly cynical way to follow a sport. Skenes games were about the only fun that Pirates fans had last year. I’m glad for them that they had some enjoyment instead of worrying about getting that extra year of control.

And I hope that if any of the CAM trio is ready and can help the big league team, the Sox bring them up. Extra year of control be damned.

I completely agree. Many here are thinking that the Sox can truly be a playoff contender this season and with the changes made to the pitching staff thus far I have to think the FO feels this is the goal. So the question becomes that if you truly believe that Anthony and Campbell (and to a lesser degree Mayer) are going to be difference makers for the team why would you consciously choose to suppress there MLB service time In favor of letting them contribute toward the goal of winning as many games as possible? Wins in the first month or two of the season are just as important as wins in the last month or two of the season.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Unless he looks overmatched in spring training - which I don't think will be the case - I think Anthony should be playing from day one. He already has approximately 600 PA against upper minors pitching and has a wRC+ around 155 in that time and he isn't being challenged at all at the AAA level (which isn't all that surprising since AAA has so many guys that just can't handle the majors backfilling those rosters). He's the "Pedroia v2007" in my opinion.

I think Campbell should be given every chance to win a spot in spring training, but at least there he's only had about 325 PA against upper minors pitching, which he absolutely demolished. I don't think he's going to learn a thing being in AAA, but I can at least see a rational argument for wanting him to have a full seasons worth of PA against upper minors competition before moving him up. Even Mookie got around 460PA at the AA and AAA levels combined. I could see giving him the "Ellsbury v2007" treatment as a rational choice though.



My personal choice is to go Anthony in LF and Campbell at 2b from jump - and for the record I think its pretty likely that both of them struggle early on - but in many ways I'd rather them have the MLB experience and coaching to deal with those struggles as I think those will be better for their long term development than going to AAA and dominating for a month, then coming up and struggling. All sending them down will do is set back the amount of (calendar) time it takes them to work on the cycle of adjustments that all MLB players face.


For the success of the 2025-27 Red Sox, I'd like to see them inserted into a more complete line up that doesn't need as many day to day machinations to be successful (ie get as close as possible to the 2007 model) and can more adequately deal with the struggles that young players almost always have (such as Pedroia's wRC+ of 51 the first month of 2007 before the Laser Show) but alas there is no Manny Ramirez or David Ortiz on the roster and there isn't going to be a JD Drew type of signing coming in either (but I think it's fair to say that offensively at least, you have a bit better than Lowell, Youk, Crisp and 'Tek with the combination of Devers, Casas, Duran and Abreu).


For MLB rookies to debut this year, I'll go with: Anthony, Campbell and Dobbins (as a reliever / spot start).

 

[Margo McCready]

I think you guys are undervaluing the value of the pick they could get just by playing 2 of the top 5 ROY favorites and having one of them win. I would understand the consternation if their performance had been just good, but Roman Anthony walked 15% of the time last year over 2 levels (18% in AAA), and Campbell walked 14.3% (15% in AAA). These guys were not even really challenged last year. I see the comparisons on this board to past prospects and I can't stop saying that "regard" does not equal performance. I find it interesting that everyone cites Jackson Holiday as a reason to hold these guys back (.790 OPS in AAA in 91 PA before being called up) and not the other two Jacksons.

Jackson Merrill struggled to start the season for SD but put up a 5.0 fWAR season as a 21 year old rookie last year. He has a 159 wRC+ in the second half last year. He was never as highly regarded as Roman Anthony is now and had a lesser performance in the minors the year prior than Roman did in 2024. Jackson Chourio put up a 3.9 fWAR season as a 20 year old. He is exactly the kind of prospect Roman Anthony is. They both got robbed a PPI pick by Paul Skenes but they have 3 more years where those players could earn another pick by placing top 3 in MVP voting. The Royals will pick 28th this year due to Bobby Witt doing that before hitting his arbitration window. A top 30 pick and ~ $3m in pool value is A LOT of value to chase. Roman Anthony, himself, was picked with a later comp pick and paid less than that.

The projection systems all have both of these guys being solid contributors THIS year and there is just as much chance that they outperform than underperform. To be eligible to gain those picks for next year or the following 3 years, they need to be up within the first 2 weeks of the season. It seems like an absolute no brainer to me from a long term team building perspective.

Edit- realizing I didn’t actually make my point. If you have a prospect like this and you believe they will end the season on the roster, you need to call them up early to go for the pick. The value is so significant that it’s better to be a month early than a month late.

100% this. Those compensation picks and the extra slot money is especially important for a team that’s averse to paying for expensive decline seasons. The extra picks are not only more opportunity to backfill the roster with homegrown talent, but also more opportunity to trade for the Josh Becketts, Chris Sales, and Garret Crochets of the world, which is clearly their preferred way to acquire established high-end talent

For me, it is time for the Sox to see who on the roster is a part of the long term plan while competing in the playoffs. This year. So, the days of decisions based on future draft picks are behind them. If any of these guys are ready to go from day 1 and give the Sox the best chance to win- bring em up, regardless of ROY draft pick compensation and/or years of control. But the impetus has to be winning games while helping these guys develop (in order to win more games).

I don’t know about this. I think we already know who’s part of the long-term plan. And it doesn’t make sense to stop considering the effects of potential picks because that is a major component of making the talent acquisition strategy that they’ve established sustainable for an extended period. And if things don’t go right and Anthony and Campbell show they’re not ready to hang, not only are Rafaela and Grissom ready to step in, but there’s plenty of wiggle room under the CBT to pivot toward a trade for an expensive vet in-season if R and G also can’t cut it.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

For me, it is time for the Sox to see who on the roster is a part of the long term plan while competing in the playoffs. This year. So, the days of decisions based on future draft picks are behind them. If any of these guys are ready to go from day 1 and give the Sox the best chance to win- bring em up, regardless of ROY draft pick compensation and/or years of control. But the impetus has to be winning games while helping these guys develop (in order to win more games).

I don’t know about this. I think we already know who’s part of the long-term plan. And it doesn’t make sense to stop considering the effects of potential picks because that is a major component of making the talent acquisition strategy that they’ve established sustainable for an extended period. And if things don’t go right and Anthony and Campbell show they’re not ready to hang, not only are Rafaela and Grissom ready to step in, but there’s plenty of wiggle room under the CBT to pivot toward a trade for an expensive vet in-season if R and G also can’t cut it.

So who is part of the long term plan? It all depends on performance, right? Of course the team should consider the impact of a potential draft pick (singular), but chasing that pick by hoping a new player wins the ROY award does not fit the trajectory or strategy of this team this year. The top priorities need to be winning games while developing young talent.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

I think you need to let everything play out organically. The fans will see right through it if a player is held back artificially in favor of a worse player, and as an organization they need to be striving for excellence. They don’t give out trophies for prudence or cap gymnastics. Not to mention withholding service time now is probably something that will be remembered come contract time down the road. And if Anthony and Campbell are as good as many think, these are players that will be worth retaining beyond their 6 years of control. If they really don’t look ready in the spring, fine, but let it play out naturally. I’d rather get the growing pains out of the way in April anyway rather than mid-season while we’re trying to compete for a playoff spot. The organization will continue to look stupid if we are artificially holding guys back and claiming the roster is truly clogged by some of the journeymen types currently on the 40.

The draft pick is tangential to winning games, but it would be a very valuable prize on top of player and team success.

 

[Fishy1]

So who is part of the long term plan? It all depends on performance, right? Of course the team should consider the impact of a potential draft pick (singular), but chasing that pick by hoping a new player wins the ROY award does not fit the trajectory or strategy of this team this year. The top priorities need to be winning games while developing young talent.

Yeah...of course it depends on the performance. If Campbell and Anthony aren't playing well enough to chase ROY, then you play someone else. Just like with any other guy.

I'm curious under what conditions would we be "chasing" that pick? If they are playing well enough to be in the running for rookie of the year, then we'd be thrilled to have them on the big league club, right? If they're not, you go with your hedge -- Grissom/Hamilton at second and Rafaela in CF -- two guys who should be competent big leaguers. I don't think anyone is proposing that if they're awful during spring training and awful to start in the minors that we should play them anyway. Whoever is showing out in spring training and the first few weeks of the season will win the job. That's just how baseball works.

The point is that by playing them relatively early -- whether that be immediately or two weeks in -- you are likely doing what's best for the team and for the players. The team because they may be the best available option, puts you in the running for picks now and in the future, and for the players because it more immediately gets them time to acclimate against big league pitching, and because it challenges them.

Let's be clear: these guys destroyed upper minors pitching, and there wasn't anything flukey about it. Campbell was #1 by a longshot among minor league hitters and Roman was tied for second. Neither of them were challenged by the upper minors, performing 50% to 70% better than the average.



And every team needs good draft picks. Look at the relatively barren cupboard from 2018-2023 and you see the consequences of not drafting well.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

Shouldn't they be more concerned about locking these guys up long term than an extra year of control anyway? They did it with Rafaela and it's fairly common around the league these days, so if these guys are the real deal get them to the negotiating table.

 

[Fishy1]

One thing is, it's very true that the usual approach has been a cup of coffee at the end of the season or a mid-season promotion. We've seen that with Pedroia, Xander, Mookie, Devers, Benintendi, and JBJ, Wilyer, Triston and Ceddanne.

But Anthony and Campbell are exceptional cases, in terms of minor league performance, and how fast they reached AAA. Roman has already had nearly 200 plate appearances there, and Campbell went all the way from A+ ball to AAA in one season: 40 games in A+, another 50 or so in AA (where he hit even better) and then 20 in AAA. That's a rare and very rapid ascent, and he handled it without breaking a sweat.

Mookie, who we all hope Kristian equals, spent a whole season in A- ball and really struggled, only putting up a wrc+ of 103. The next season he split between A and A+ ball. Then another 99 games the next season between AA and AAA before being promoted. That's a very different type of ascent -- three nearly full season of minor league baseball.

All told he played, like, 20 more games in AAA than Campbell has.

For the record, there's plenty of guys who win the job and play the whole season in the bigs and who were success stories. Chourio had all of six games in AAA. Bobby Witt Jr took the job in 2022 at the beginning of the season. Julio Rodriguez didn't play a single game in AAA and won the job in 2022. Pete Alonso is another good example.

For every Jackson Holliday people, there's plenty of success stories.

 

[Margo McCready]

So who is part of the long term plan? It all depends on performance, right? Of course the team should consider the impact of a potential draft pick (singular), but chasing that pick by hoping a new player wins the ROY award does not fit the trajectory or strategy of this team this year. The top priorities need to be winning games while developing young talent.

I think it’s pretty obvious Devers, Casas, Duran, Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, and Rafaela (due to his extension), Bello (again, extension), Houck, Whitlock, and Slaten are all part of a long-term core. Possibly Crochet? We’ll see if they can extend him. Abreu could be here for a while, too. We’ve heard his name in enough trade rumors that maybe that’s not the case, though.

And absolutely it all depends on performance. There’s no such thing as a guarantee in baseball, so no team in immune from ever having to pivot to a plan-B regarding any particular player.

I’m probably completely missing what you’re saying here, and if so, I apologize, but if I’m reading you correctly, chasing that pick by hoping a new player wins the ROY award is absolutely part of the team’s trajectory this year. Obviously, the opportunity isn’t going to be there most seasons. You absolutely should be shooting for it in those relatively rare instances when trying for the pick and to be very likely putting your best team on the field are one and the same. And to have two bites at that apple in the same season? I’m just some schmo on the internet so maybe I’m wrong here, but I’m going to be annoyed with the team if they don’t give it a shot.

 

[TapeAndPosts]

MLB Pipeline polled front office executives on the game's No. 1 prospect, Roman Anthony topped it with 44.9% of the vote, more than twice the second-place vote-getter. Kristian Campbell just made the graphic in 7th place. Hard not to be excited.

View: https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1876660326617505857

 

[NickEsasky]

One thing is, it's very true that the usual approach has been a cup of coffee at the end of the season or a mid-season promotion. We've seen that with Pedroia, Xander, Mookie, Devers, Benintendi, and JBJ, Wilyer, Triston and Ceddanne.

But Anthony and Campbell are exceptional cases, in terms of minor league performance, and how fast they reached AAA. Roman has already had nearly 200 plate appearances there, and Campbell went all the way from A+ ball to AAA in one season: 40 games in A+, another 50 or so in AA (where he hit even better) and then 20 in AAA. That's a rare and very rapid ascent, and he handled it without breaking a sweat.

Mookie, who we all hope Kristian equals, spent a whole season in A- ball and really struggled, only putting up a wrc+ of 103. The next season he split between A and A+ ball. Then another 99 games the next season between AA and AAA before being promoted. That's a very different type of ascent -- three nearly full season of minor league baseball.

All told he played, like, 20 more games in AAA than Campbell has.

For the record, there's plenty of guys who win the job and play the whole season in the bigs and who were success stories. Chourio had all of six games in AAA. Bobby Witt Jr took the job in 2022 at the beginning of the season. Julio Rodriguez didn't play a single game in AAA and won the job in 2022. Pete Alonso is another good example.

For every Jackson Holliday people, there's plenty of success stories.

How much stock, if any, do you put into Campbell's .395 BABIP? I guess even if you regress some of that luck he still has a good season, just not absolutely elite.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

Yeah...of course it depends on the performance. If Campbell and Anthony aren't playing well enough to chase ROY, then you play someone else. Just like with any other guy.

I'm curious under what conditions would we be "chasing" that pick? If they are playing well enough to be in the running for rookie of the year, then we'd be thrilled to have them on the big league club, right? If they're not, you go with your hedge -- Grissom/Hamilton at second and Rafaela in CF -- two guys who should be competent big leaguers. I don't think anyone is proposing that if they're awful during spring training and awful to start in the minors that we should play them anyway. Whoever is showing out in spring training and the first few weeks of the season will win the job. That's just how baseball works.

The point is that by playing them relatively early -- whether that be immediately or two weeks in -- you are likely doing what's best for the team and for the players. The team because they may be the best available option, puts you in the running for picks now and in the future, and for the players because it more immediately gets them time to acclimate against big league pitching, and because it challenges them.

Let's be clear: these guys destroyed upper minors pitching, and there wasn't anything flukey about it. Campbell was #1 by a longshot among minor league hitters and Roman was tied for second. Neither of them were challenged by the upper minors, performing 50% to 70% better than the average.

View attachment 94412

And every team needs good draft picks. Look at the relatively barren cupboard from 2018-2023 and you see the consequences of not drafting well.

Chasing the ROY pick would be placing Campbell or Anthony on the MLB team before they are ready to meaningfully contribute. If the coaching staff thinks they are ready to make the team better, do it, but the ROY issue should play no role in that decision.

I anticipate that playing Rafaela and Grissom early, while the more conservative approach, is likely the right path. Look at James Woods, Jackson Merrill, and Sal Frelick last spring. Each were top 20 in OPS during spring training (With Woods leading all of MLB last spring). Merrill started in the majors and was fantastic after a slow start. Frelick struggled all year and Woods was called up in July and played great.

EDIT: Look at Coby Mayo. Number 8 prospect on MLB.com, 23 years old, just behind Meyer and ahead of Campbell: dominated in spring training last year, very good numbers in AAA last year, and struggled when he was promoted to MLB.

Each player has a different path and the Sox have a ton of options to both have a competitive team while developing these young players.

 

[curly2]

Did Fitts actually qualify as a rookie or would he be one in '25 now?
Slaten definitely should be considered a rookie success.
I'd agree with Rafaela but some here think he's the worst player ever.

Rafaela is far from the worst player ever, but striking out 10 times for every walk is very concerning.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

I think it’s pretty obvious Devers, Casas, Duran, Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, and Rafaela (due to his extension), Bello (again, extension), Houck, Whitlock, and Slaten are all part of a long-term core. Possibly Crochet? We’ll see if they can extend him. Abreu could be here for a while, too. We’ve heard his name in enough trade rumors that maybe that’s not the case, though.

And absolutely it all depends on performance. There’s no such thing as a guarantee in baseball, so no team in immune from ever having to pivot to a plan-B regarding any particular player.

I’m probably completely missing what you’re saying here, and if so, I apologize, but if I’m reading you correctly, chasing that pick by hoping a new player wins the ROY award is absolutely part of the team’s trajectory this year. Obviously, the opportunity isn’t going to be there most seasons. You absolutely should be shooting for it in those relatively rare instances when trying for the pick and to be very likely putting your best team on the field are one and the same. And to have two bites at that apple in the same season? I’m just some schmo on the internet so maybe I’m wrong here, but I’m going to be annoyed with the team if they don’t give it a shot.

I'm saying that, in my very amateur opinion, it is a toss up whether Grissom and Rafaela or Campbell and Anthony would have better seasons next year if given an equal opportunity, so I'd like to see what the former can do with regular playing time unless one or both of the latter force the issue with a dominating early season performance.

 

[chawson]

How much stock, if any, do you put into Campbell's .395 BABIP? I guess even if you regress some of that luck he still has a good season, just not absolutely elite.

BABIP can often be high in the minors because the fielding is typically worse. The quality of contact stuff seems like a better indicator.

 

[NickEsasky]

BABIP can often be high in the minors because the fielding is typically worse. The quality of contact stuff seems like a better indicator.

Agreed. But Campbell's is still an outlier on that list above.

 

[nvalvo]

How much stock, if any do you put into Campbell's .395 BABIP? I guess even if you regress some of that luck he still has a good season, just not absolutely elite.

It’s absolutely elite no matter how you slice it. The people putting him in the top 10 lists league wide know about BABIP, I promise.

I think people are seeing his quality of contact numbers (he “barreled” ~8% of his balls in play in AAA; I don’t know where to get AAA EVs) and figure that he’s earning a lot of that. His BABIP fell to .333 in AAA and his line was .286/.412/.486. If you’re walking a ton and annihilating the baseball when you hit it you’re going to post pretty high BABIPs.

The thing that will regress is that 20+% of his fly balls aren’t going to leave the yard going forward. But that might make his BABIP go up!

 

[jacklamabe65]

If they are to be the Gold Dust Twins II, then why trade Casas or sign Bregman - we have Anthony and Campbell.

 

[TomRicardo]

It’s absolutely elite no matter how you slice it. The people putting him in the top 10 lists league wide know about BABIP, I promise.

There is difference between being one of the top ten prospects in baseball and penciling the guy in for .400 BABIP season year one. The people putting him on those lists definitely understand that.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

I keep reading, in this thread and earlier, some posters saying "If they claim the job in spring training" or words to that effect. I think the front office should already know whether or not Anthony and Campbell are on the opening day roster and spring training shouldn't prove or disprove anything. Either these guys are ready, both talent-wise and future considerations-wise (ROY draft choice, years of control, whatever) or they're not. Having a good spring in the highly abnormal conditions of the Grapefruit League (minor league ballparks, playing against a mixture of major and minor leagues, facing pitcher who might be working on something as opposed to giving maximum effort) should count for almost nothing in this decision. The only thing from spring training that should change whether or not they're on the roster is if somebody gets hurt.

Personally, I'm hoping they both head north with the team. Can't wait to see them.

 

[nvalvo]

There is difference between being one of the top ten prospects in baseball and penciling the guy in for .400 BABIP season year one. The people putting him on those lists definitely understand that.

Is it your contention that Campbell’s season was “not elite?” It was one of the best minor league seasons in the last several decades.

I’m not expecting Campbell to OPS 1.000 in MLB, if that’s what you’re suggesting. I’m not expecting Bregman to do so either.

 

[Auger34]

Is it your contention that Campbell’s season was “not elite?” It was one of the best minor league seasons in the last several decades.

I’m not expecting Campbell to OPS 1.000 in MLB, if that’s what you’re suggesting. I’m not expecting Bregman to do so either.

I think TRic is pretty clearly saying that you can't assume his BABIP will be that high in the majors (and is taking nothing away from his minor league season).

 

[Fishy1]

Is it your contention that Campbell’s season was “not elite?” It was one of the best minor league seasons in the last several decades.

I’m not expecting Campbell to OPS 1.000 in MLB, if that’s what you’re suggesting. I’m not expecting Bregman to do so either.

Look at the BABIPs on this list. Campbell is hardly an outlier. This is best minor league track records since 2006 with at least 500 PA.

 

[NickEsasky]

He was on your other list which is why I asked the question. But, you guys have all convinced me. They are both going to be super duper awesome and we're well on our way to multiple World Series championships with a core of Anthony and Campbell. I can't wait to to our all home-grown roster in a year or two.

 

[Auger34]

Look at the BABIPs on this list. Campbell is hardly an outlier. This is best minor league track records since 2006 with at least 500 PA.

View attachment 94421

I am not trying to speak for anyone but I think the idea of this discussion was how does that BABIP translate to the majors not if it's unsustainable in the minors or what other really good minor league hitters BABIPs were

 

[Fishy1]

I am not trying to speak for anyone but I think the idea of this discussion was how does that BABIP translate to the majors not if it's unsustainable in the minors or what other really good minor league hitters BABIPs were

That doesn't seem like what the conversation was at all. The question is if we should regress his minor league numbers because of a high BABIP, but the facts are that nearly all of the best minor league careers are driven by high BABIP, which is in turn driven by tremendously good quality of contact.

 

[Fishy1]

He was on your other list which is why I asked the question. But, you guys have all convinced me. They are both going to be super duper awesome and we're well on our way to multiple World Series championships with a core of Anthony and Campbell. I can't wait to to our all home-grown roster in a year or two.

Well, uh, have fun?

 

[NickEsasky]

That doesn't seem like what the conversation was at all. The question is if we should regress his minor league numbers because of a high BABIP, but the facts are that nearly all of the best minor league careers are driven by high BABIP, which is in turn driven by tremendously good quality of contact.

The first graph you posted showed Campbell at .395 with one other player above A ball with .388. I asked you if you put any stock in that outlier. It was an honest question. You later posted the other chart with a longer history and Campbell is no longer an outlier. That's basically what I was looking for.

 

[Fishy1]

The first graph you posted showed Campbell at .395 with one other player above A ball with .388. I asked you if you put any stock in that outlier. It was an honest question. You later posted the other chart with a longer history and Campbell is no longer an outlier. That's basically what I was looking for.

Fair enough. There were a few different strands of conversation I was responding to.

Look, there's absolutely a chance he bombs. It happens. I just think he's the best we've had in a while to be successful right out the gate. But that doesn't mean at all that he will be.

 

[NickEsasky]

Fair enough. There were a few different strands of conversation I was responding to.

Look, there's absolutely a chance he bombs. It happens. I just think he's the best we've had in a while to be successful right out the gate. But that doesn't mean at all that he will be.

I don't have much concern that he bombs long-term. Maybe he tops out as a solid starter or something and there's value in that. Maybe he's a superstar. I hope he is. My concerns are not for his or Anthony's long-term prospects. My concerns are strictly for next year as I am pretty tired of missing out on October baseball.

 

[TomRicardo]

I think TRic is pretty clearly saying that you can't assume his BABIP will be that high in the majors (and is taking nothing away from his minor league season).

Yea, if he comes out an hits .780-.800 OPS his rookie season, that doesn't make him any less elite. That is really good for a rookie. That said that isn't going to significantly dig the Red Sox out the hole which is their lineup. Anthony and Campbell can have really good rookie seasons and the Red Sox lineup will not be good enough to win 85+ wins.

The lineup even with Anthony and Campbell having .800 OPS seasons will really struggle to get to 800 Runs or so you would be looking at the team to get to win 85+ wins.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

Yea, if he comes out an hits .780-.800 OPS his rookie season, that doesn't make him any less elite. That is really good for a rookie. That said that isn't going to significantly dig the Red Sox out the hole which is their lineup. Anthony and Campbell can have really good rookie seasons and the Red Sox lineup will not be good enough to win 85+ wins.

The lineup even with Anthony and Campbell having .800 OPS seasons will really struggle to get to 800 Runs or so you would be looking at the team to get to win 85+ wins.

For the record, only one AL team scored more than 800 runs last season. The Sox scored 751 runs, which put them at 3rd best in the AL. They should hit that number again, with minimal input from Anthony and Campbell, and that should be plenty to make the playoffs if the rotation and bullpen show the improvement that is anticipated.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

I keep reading, in this thread and earlier, some posters saying "If they claim the job in spring training" or words to that effect. I think the front office should already know whether or not Anthony and Campbell are on the opening day roster and spring training shouldn't prove or disprove anything. Either these guys are ready, both talent-wise and future considerations-wise (ROY draft choice, years of control, whatever) or they're not. Having a good spring in the highly abnormal conditions of the Grapefruit League (minor league ballparks, playing against a mixture of major and minor leagues, facing pitcher who might be working on something as opposed to giving maximum effort) should count for almost nothing in this decision. The only thing from spring training that should change whether or not they're on the roster is if somebody gets hurt.

Personally, I'm hoping they both head north with the team. Can't wait to see them.

I think the "If they claim the job in spring training" folks are more on the side of "If one or both completely fall on their face in ST, maybe give them some more time in AAA" rather than "they had a good ST so let's use that to justify them making the opening day roster". But the good thing is, the Sox have other internal options in case they were to struggle badly. If Campbell needs more time, they have Grissom, Hamilton, Romy and Rafaela that can step in and play 2B. If Anthony needs more time, Campbell or Rafaela could play in the OF. But I think the hope is that both are ready to go and they're mainstays in the lineup from day 1. As outlined already in this thread, it doesn't make much sense to hold them back.

 

[Fishy1]

I don't have much concern that he bombs long-term. Maybe he tops out as a solid starter or something and there's value in that. Maybe he's a superstar. I hope he is. My concerns are not for his or Anthony's long-term prospects. My concerns are strictly for next year as I am pretty tired of missing out on October baseball.

Right, and I totally get that. We all are.

Look at it this way: there's a decent chance they hit the ground running, like a lot of the guys did on that list I posted above-Rodriguez, Bryant, Conforto, Alonso, Soto, Schwarber, Belt, etc.. There's also a chance they have more or less average starts and then become much better soon after that-Kendrick, Guerrero Jr., etc.. There's also a chance they struggle for a while before figuring things out--Alex Gordon, Matt Wieters, etc. The good news is with Ceddanne and Grissom and Hamilton, we've got more than a few hedges against Campbell/Anthony flailing.

Keep in mind that the offense overall was slightly above average despite three holes: 2B (which Campbell and Grissom will be competing to fill), 1B (hopefully we get a full season of Casas), and what we'll call Ceddanne's spot in the batting order, which hopefully will be improved by Anthony (not hard to do, as Ceddanne was one of the worst offensive contributors in all of baseball).

There's obviously a lot of other variables, but it's not exactly a tall task for Campbell and Anthony to top those absolutely abysmal offensive performances. Them being as bad as Ceddanne or our the 2B poo poo platter was last year is a possible outcome, but I don't think it's very likely at all.

And let's not forget that the absolute biggest weakness was relief pitching. We were well above .500 before the relief corps fell apart. They've added there, and pushed at least one starting pitcher to the pen, but I think they may add more there.

 

[Margo McCready]

I'm saying that, in my very amateur opinion, it is a toss up whether Grissom and Rafaela or Campbell and Anthony would have better seasons next year if given an equal opportunity, so I'd like to see what the former can do with regular playing time unless one or both of the latter force the issue with a dominating early season performance.

I hear you and I can see the logic in your point of view. Grissom and Rafaela are both talented players and very well could put up better numbers than Anthony and Campbell this year. What I’m thinking, though, is that they’ll still be there to plug into the starting lineup if either of the two rookies fall flat on their face. And if that happens, you can demote one or both of them having it be clear to them that 1) the team did them a solid by giving them a shot and not messing with their service time out of the gate, and 2) they’ll have first-hand knowledge of what they struggled with, which should give them a much better idea of exactly what they’d need to work on back in AAA as opposed to just continuing to crush minor league pitching oblivious to the adjustments required to succeed in Boston. So because of those reasons, I’d like to see what the latter two can do out of the gate since if they do succeed, there’s realistic potential one or both of them net extra picks for the team. And again, if they fall flat, Grissom and Rafaela are excellent pieces to plug into the starting lineup in their place. (Romy and Hamilton both having options remaining further help this scenario’s feasibility.)

So presumably the two amongst these four who play best will start. If it’s Anthony and/or Campbell, then it’ll be great having the other two as talented bench players you don’t need to shy away from. If it’s Rafaela and/or Grissom, the rookies can be demoted with personal knowledge of what they need to improve in order to succeed in MLB.