The Rick Porcello Thread!

Buckner's Boots · Apr 15, 2016

If Rick Porcello pitches as a passable 2 or 3 type starter, that will go a long way toward solidifying the rotation. That would allow Kelly to pitch like a three and Buchholz to pitch like a four (or vice versa) without either of them having to stretch too far. Let's forget about the overpay and what similar money might have brought this team; if Porcello is able to deliver outings like this consistently, I am more comfortable with this rotation. I shudder to think what things might look like if Edro comes back and pitches like a two or three...

Soxfan in Fla · Apr 21, 2016

He hasn't been spectacular so far, 4 runs in 6 IP and 3 runs in 6 IP and 7 IP so far but pitched well enough to give the Sox a chance to win all 3, which they have. He certainly is pitching better than last year so far. It isn't at a 2 level and maybe not even a 3 level starter but it's improved.

Auger34 · Apr 21, 2016

Soxfan in Fla said:
He hasn't been spectacular so far, 4 runs in 6 IP and 3 runs in 6 IP and 7 IP so far but pitched well enough to give the Sox a chance to win all 3, which they have. He certainly is pitching better than last year so far. It isn't at a 2 level and maybe not even a 3 level starter but it's improved.

His peripherals are fantastic but he is giving up a TON of home runs. If/when his HR rate stabilizes I think he will begin pitching like a decent #2 and a very good #3

pokey_reese · Apr 21, 2016

It's interesting over the last few years, seeing how he has turned from a GB pitcher almost into a FB pitcher, but while actually improving his peripherals and fielding/luck independent numbers. Believe it or not, last year was one of his lowest xFIP/SIERA seasons, and nearly identical to the previous year he had in Detroit, but with a much higher HR/FB rate, and substantially worse strand rate and BABIP. While giving up a bunch of home runs is certainly on him, he did get really unlucky with sequencing over the course of the year, and did so while raising his K rate and keeping walks down. This year he has basically pitched like an ace except for an extra HR or two, currently driving an unsustainable HR/FB rate.

Porcello (K/9, BB/9, GB%): 11.2, 1.4, 42.9
Price(K/9, BB/9, GB%): 13.5, 2.0, 39.0

Except this time it is Porcello with the unreasonably low BABIP and strand rate, but high HR rate, and Price with the unreasonably bad BABIP and strand rate, but low HR rate. If they both keep pitching like this but see their SSS rate stats normalize a bit, we could have a great 1-2 punch after all.

Stan Papi Was Framed · Apr 21, 2016

Soxfan in Fla said:
He hasn't been spectacular so far, 4 runs in 6 IP and 3 runs in 6 IP and 7 IP so far but pitched well enough to give the Sox a chance to win all 3, which they have. He certainly is pitching better than last year so far. It isn't at a 2 level and maybe not even a 3 level starter but it's improved.

in the 1st 2 games he pitched, 2 guys killed him (one in each game)--in one game, I think he no-hit the rest of the team other than Encarnacion. K-BB ratio is 24-3 in 19.1 innings, with 15 hits allowed. Long ball continues to be an issue, but his overall approach looks pretty good so far, and if he can stay away from Batista and Encarnacion (or their closest approximations on other teams), things are looking good. Liked his outing last night a lot--in command, no drama, nice and quiet (until, once again, a couple of long fly balls bit him in 6th inning or so--but even then, damage was limited).

shaggydog2000 · Apr 21, 2016

His k% is twice his career average. But so is his HR/FB rate. I don't know if those are connected for him for some reason (the last two times his k% spiked for a year, so did the HR/FB), but I expect them both to normalize a little in the near future. Right now he's either striking guys out or the balls are getting crushed. I'd have to do actual work to check, but the triple he gave up just before the home run last night was really deep and I'd guess it would have been out of a lot of parks. His BABIP is low, but that's just due to the dingers. You add those back in as playable balls that went for hits and he's at .282. I expect once some of his rates normalize he's going to be a decent #3 or 4 guy.

whatittakes · Apr 21, 2016

With an offense that's supposed to be potent I'll take a guy who goes 6 or 7 innings and allows 3 or 4 runs. I don't know nor do I care what his ephemeral "starter number" is but I'll take a guy who can perform like that consistently and ask where to find more.

johnnywayback · Apr 21, 2016

The story here really seems to be that he's a very effective pitcher when he relies on his sinker, but that, left to his own devices, he'll try to win with his four-seamer and wind up getting clobbered. That's fascinating to me. How on earth does he not just do the thing that's more effective? Even after finding success with the new pitch mix last summer, he was back to the old one in his first start this year and got hit hard. And what accounts for their newfound ability to convince him? Is it Vazquez? Tewksbury? Brian Bannister? It all seems like it would be a great insider read.

pantsparty · Apr 21, 2016

johnnywayback said:
And what accounts for their newfound ability to convince him? Is it Vazquez? Tewksbury? Brian Bannister? It all seems like it would be a great insider read.

There was a gif posted on twitter after Porcello's last start where he tried to shake off Vazquez and Vazquez shook him back on -

Drek717 · Apr 21, 2016

pantsparty said:
There was a gif posted on twitter after Porcello's last start where he tried to shake off Vazquez and Vazquez shook him back on

While amusing the outcome of that was Pillar getting beaned, FYI.

dbn · Apr 26, 2016

I missed the game last night. How did he look? Was he pitching great or is the Braves' offense just terrible (or both)?

SouthernBoSox · Apr 26, 2016

dbn said:
I missed the game last night. How did he look? Was he pitching great or is the Braves' offense just terrible (or both)?

Little of both. His stuff and pitch selection has definitely carried over from the end of last year. His K/BB is spectacular. He keeps that up and your're going to have a very productive pitcher.

Clears Cleaver · Apr 26, 2016

he throws strikes, a welcome change from watching Owens and clay et al. Atlanta had some hittable pitches that they missed last night, but watching a guy get through a batter in four pitches without nibbling and an inning in 10 pitches is welcome to a team that has burned through its bullpen in 20 games

jimbobim · Apr 26, 2016

The Braves are terrible.

But Rick pitched smartly and efficiently with the Sox version of a AAAA lineup and was given 1 run. Clearly, has a good thing going with Vaz and ditching the cutter which gets hammered. When E rod returns and presumably/(maybe optimistically) pitches like a 2 a Price Erod Porcello front three should give the pen a bit of a break.

whatittakes · Apr 26, 2016

Once we get E-Rod back our rotation is going to look like Price ERod Porcello Wright Buchholz. Pending Wright possibly turning into a pumpkin that looks pretty solid to me.

nvalvo · Apr 27, 2016

xFIP is pretty excited about Rick's start to the season.

It's only 25 innings, but he's posting the best K rate of his career (10.5!) *and* the best walk rate of his career simultaneously. Also the worst home run rate, but I think that's mostly a result of facing the Blue Jays in half his starts.

rotundlio · Apr 28, 2016

Edit: Nevermind. In a five-man rotation I trust that he'll provide above-average innings. He is very, very around the plate so far—wouldn't it follow that he has a lot of near misses? Or that his misses be nearer? Couldn't he benefit in particular from pitch framing?

BannedbyNYYFans.com · May 1, 2016

It's not Daniel Bard-esque, but it's still pretty good.

thehitcat · May 1, 2016

Um wow that is some serious back-up action on that pitch. Great look at it thanks Banned.

HriniakPosterChild · May 1, 2016

"2-seam lockup."
"Absolutely."

Savin Hillbilly · May 1, 2016

thehitcat said:
Um wow that is some serious back-up action on that pitch. Great look at it thanks Banned.

Looks like Vazquez is using the Force to pull the ball back onto the corner and into his glove. "This is the strike you're looking for."

BaseballJones · May 6, 2016

From last July 8 to the present:

17 g, 110.0 ip, 109 h, 40 er, 22 bb, 110 k, 3.27 era, 9.0 k/9, 12 QS (70.6%)

So he's been pretty good, yeah.

Tyrone Biggums · May 6, 2016

BaseballJones said:
From last July 8 to the present:

17 g, 110.0 ip, 109 h, 40 er, 22 bb, 110 k, 3.27 era, 9.0 k/9, 12 QS (70.6%)

So he's been pretty good, yeah.

If he can sustain this then the contract still isn't good but it's not an albatross either. Certainly whatever the staff did in July of 2015 has worked up to this point.

BaseballJones · May 6, 2016

If he can sustain those numbers, he'll be a Cy Young award candidate, and will be worth every penny of his contract.

My question is whether he can sustain this. I doubt it. I really, really hope I'm wrong.

Savin Hillbilly · May 6, 2016

Darnell's Son said:
iayork wrote an article about how Porcello's been able to bridge his success from the end of last year to the start of this year at the .com.

Great piece--nice to have quantitative confirmation of what we've all been seeing. I wonder if the increased reliance on the two-seamer and the greater effectiveness of the changeup so far are related, since the change for most pitchers acts like a slow two-seamer, so a hitter who's been looking at two-seamers might be a little slower to pick up the change.

dbn · May 6, 2016

Darnell's Son said:
iayork wrote an article about how Porcello's been able to bridge his success from the end of last year to the start of this year at the .com.

Just one man's opinion, but I don't go to the .com enough so I'm glad for your frequent link-sharing. Thanks. The .com and ITP do such great work.

Alcohol&Overcalls · May 6, 2016

Tyrone Biggums said:
If he can sustain this then the contract still isn't good but it's not an albatross either. Certainly whatever the staff did in July of 2015 has worked up to this point.

Are you kidding? Those numbers are a pretty decent approximation of Max Scherzer's career numbers.

The Talented Allen Ripley · May 6, 2016

Tyrone Biggums said:
If he can sustain this then the contract still isn't good but it's not an albatross either.

Who dropped you on your head when you were a kid? I'd like to give them a high five.

Tyrone Biggums · May 6, 2016

The Allented Mr Ripley said:
Who dropped you on your head when you were a kid? I'd like to give them a high five.

Difference between sustaining for Rick Porcello and Mad Max. If you can't see that then you need to stop drinking that 93 gasoline. Need to take ceilings into consideration.

The guy is good right now but if you get a trade offer for him you have to listen. 20 mil is a lot of coin for a #3 starter.

The Talented Allen Ripley · May 6, 2016

No, no. We write with words here and this is what you said:

If he can sustain this then the contract still isn't good but it's not an albatross either.

Try backing away from that.

Tyrone Biggums · May 6, 2016

The Allented Mr Ripley said:
No, no. We write with words here and this is what you said:

Try backing away from that.

I'm not backing away from it. We all know there is zero chance that he can sustain this but even if he does. It's one good year. Need to see how the other 3 years go. So once again. One good year one bad year...that's not a 20 million dollar player.

SouthernBoSox · May 6, 2016

Tyrone Biggums said:
I'm not backing away from it. We all know there is zero chance that he can sustain this but even if he does. It's one good year. Need to see how the other 3 years go. So once again. One good year one bad year...that's not a 20 million dollar player.

I guess we can argue about the meaning of the word "sustain."

Tyrone Biggums · May 6, 2016

SouthernBoSox said:
I guess we can argue about the meaning of the word "sustain."

What's to argue? Look at his career numbers. I like Porcello. Don't get me wrong. He's young so he should be showing improvement. But if he has one good year he's still overpaid. If he follows it up with another good year then I'm wrong.

Cesar Crespo · May 6, 2016

Sustaining those numbers mean he will continue to put up those same numbers for the rest of his contract... and that would be incredibly valuable. Read what you wrote.

Tyrone Biggums · May 6, 2016

bosox79 said:
Sustaining those numbers mean he will continue to put up those same numbers for the rest of his contract... and that would be incredibly valuable. Read what you wrote.

I did. I never ever said sustain over 4 years. Of course that would be insanely valuable. We are currently speaking about 2016. If he sustains it over 2016 then it's still not a great contract. If it's 2016 and 2017 then you have something.

nvalvo · May 6, 2016

Tyrone Biggums said:
I'm not backing away from it. We all know there is zero chance that he can sustain this but even if he does. It's one good year. Need to see how the other 3 years go. So once again. One good year one bad year...that's not a 20 million dollar player.

Nothing about his age or the trajectory of his peripherals or the way that he was hurt by a very high BABIP last season?

Here's what I see: a guy who is coming into his age-27 season throwing up the highest strikeout rate, the lowest walk rate, and the lowest hit rate of his career.

The hit rate will come up. The .241 BABIP is not sustainable, even if our defense is much, much improved over last season just by getting Sandoval out of the infield and Ramirez out of the outfield; his LD% allowed is in line with his career norms. But if he's striking out more than 9 batters per 9IP and walking fewer than two, and getting 1.5 GO for every FO, allowing two more hits a night just isn't going to hurt him very much, especially given that his Blue Jay-inflated HR/FB ratio is already trending back down towards league average.

Cesar Crespo · May 6, 2016

Tyrone Biggums said:
I did. I never ever said sustain over 4 years. Of course that would be insanely valuable. We are currently speaking about 2016. If he sustains it over 2016 then it's still not a great contract. If it's 2016 and 2017 then you have something.

Keep walking it back.

tims4wins · May 6, 2016

Can you guys take it to PM or something? This is nearly as stupid as how many days are there in a week / batting around.

geoduck no quahog · May 6, 2016

Only if 7 days per week can be sustained.

Dogman · May 6, 2016

Tyrone Biggums said:
I did. I never ever said sustain over 4 years. Of course that would be insanely valuable. We are currently speaking about 2016. If he sustains it over 2016 then it's still not a great contract. If it's 2016 and 2017 then you have something.

It is ok to be wrong. When you are wrong, and you clearly are in this example, it is far better to admit it and move on than double down and look really, really silly.

People will likely have more respect for you as a 'read' poster instead of a 'scroll' poster when you can simply say you made a boneheaded statement. We all do it sometimes. It's ok.

Tyrone Biggums · May 6, 2016

Dogman2 said:
It is ok to be wrong. When you are wrong, and you clearly are in this example, it is far better to admit it and move on than double down and look really, really silly.

People will likely have more respect for you as a 'read' poster instead of a 'scroll' poster when you can simply say you made a boneheaded statement. We all do it sometimes. It's ok.

If the interpretation of my comment was that then sure I was wrong. But I was looking at this as in 2016 in a vacuum. It is my fault for not putting that in the detail of my post and leaving it open to the interpretation that I meant all 4 years of his contract.

JBJ_HOF · May 6, 2016

The vertical movement on his sinker and rank among his sinker peers:

2013 5th/58, 2.9" rise
2014 9th/59, 3.9" rise
2015 26th/55, 5.9" rise
2016 16th/48, 6.0" rise

StupendousMan · May 6, 2016

JBJ_HOF said:
The vertical movement on his sinker and rank among his sinker peers:

2013 5th/58, 2.9" rise
2014 9th/59, 3.9" rise
2015 26th/55, 5.9" rise
2016 16th/48, 6.0" rise

Could we please refer to this pitch as a "2-seam fastball", rather than a "sinker?"

ALiveH · May 6, 2016

Tyrone Biggums said:
If the interpretation of my comment was that then sure I was wrong. But I was looking at this as in 2016 in a vacuum. It is my fault for not putting that in the detail of my post and leaving it open to the interpretation that I meant all 4 years of his contract.

Especially since this is the "Rick Porcello" thread, not the "2016 Rick Porcello" thread.

iayork · May 6, 2016

JBJ_HOF said:
The vertical movement on his sinker and rank among his sinker peers:

2013 5th/58, 2.9" rise
2014 9th/59, 3.9" rise
2015 26th/55, 5.9" rise
2016 16th/48, 6.0" rise

Vertical rise is generally considered a bad thing for sinkers [Which you probably know, based on the ranking], so I'm not sure that's a good trend. That said, he's getting good separation between his sinker and his four-seam, which is probably more important.

("FF"=fastball, "FT"=sinker)

JBJ_HOF · May 6, 2016

StupendousMan said:
Could we please refer to this pitch as a "2-seam fastball", rather than a "sinker?"

No, considering 2-seams fastballs are now considered sinkers industry-wide.

And no, it's not a good trend.

Snodgrass'Muff · May 6, 2016

JBJ_HOF said:
No, considering 2-seams fastballs are now considered sinkers industry-wide.

Source?

JBJ_HOF · May 6, 2016

Snodgrass'Muff said:
Source?

Dave Dombrowski, Brian Bannister, the saberseminar folks, MLB Network, nearly all literature including brooksbaseball.net, sonsofsamhorn.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, fivethirtyeight.com

The Rick Porcello Thread!

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