The Red Sox ARE good. So now what?

BaseballJones

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Well baseball is a 162-game season. If the season ended after 81 games the Sox would have been in great shape but alas. Now that also means there’s still lots of games left and the Sox could (in theory) go on a nice run here and get back to playing wonderful baseball.

But as is always the case during a massive slump, it’s very hard to see how they’ll do it.
 

Cesar Crespo

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BaseballJones

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No they shouldn't have been trading away players. They might not have felt like they were really as good as they played in the first half of the season, but since they got to the deadline where they were in the standings, knowing they were adding Sale, they had to at least make *some* effort to improve the team and give it a run. Which they did in adding Schwarber. In retrospect, that deal was exactly the kind of deal you make if you think, "(1) We probably aren't really this good, (2) we are building for the long-term, (3) we don't want to spend a ton of resources going for it this year when we probably aren't good enough to win it unless we catch lightning in a bottle because we don't want to disrupt our long-term plans, and (4) but who knows...maybe this move, a couple minor ones, and adding Sale would be enough for us to get a little lucky."
 

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Well baseball is a 162-game season. If the season ended after 81 games the Sox would have been in great shape but alas. Now that also means there’s still lots of games left and the Sox could (in theory) go on a nice run here and get back to playing wonderful baseball.

But as is always the case during a massive slump, it’s very hard to see how they’ll do it.
Today's game is the 123rd for the Sox. They have 39 games left.

For those 39 games, to secure the single game wild card spot, they must play as well (or better than) Oakland and NY. That seems possible.

To secure the division, they'd have to play 6 games better than Tampa (and generally better than NY.) I think that ship has likely sailed.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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They had the best record in the league not that long ago. They may have been playing over their heads, but those wins were in the bank. They should have been upgrading the team for the stretch run - they really didn’t, at least in comparison to their competitors.

I don’t buy the argument that the team wasn’t good enough- they clearly were, nobody was making that argument at the deadline.

Sometimes the addition of one or two players has a ripple effect on the rest of the lineup / staff, in terms of roles, responsibilities, expectations, etc; as well as just changing the team dynamic and mood.

Bloom did try to do something- as evidenced by the Schwarber, Robles, and Davis deals, and the flurry of waiver pickups in the last few weeks. I think the early returns are that the moves he made did not address the teams real problems; or he didn’t foresee what those problems were.

I imagine we’ll have to wait until the postmortems in the off-season to find out what really happened, or at least the narrative they want to pitch
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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It's almost like they were never that good and were playing over their heads.

Really, they should have been trading away players at the deadline. Not trading for them. Do you think 1 or 2 players prevents this fall?
And the one guy who was expected to be replaced in the lineup has actually been hitting the ball pretty well. I don’t think that there was a chance in hell that the sox were going to bring in an impact starting pitcher
 

Cesar Crespo

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No they shouldn't have been trading away players. They might not have felt like they were really as good as they played in the first half of the season, but since they got to the deadline where they were in the standings, knowing they were adding Sale, they had to at least make *some* effort to improve the team and give it a run. Which they did in adding Schwarber. In retrospect, that deal was exactly the kind of deal you make if you think, "(1) We probably aren't really this good, (2) we are building for the long-term, (3) we don't want to spend a ton of resources going for it this year when we probably aren't good enough to win it unless we catch lightning in a bottle because we don't want to disrupt our long-term plans, and (4) but who knows...maybe this move, a couple minor ones, and adding Sale would be enough for us to get a little lucky."
It's a move you make to make it look like you are doing something. It's very possible the team would have been better off moving away pieces, especially given the returns for some of the players traded away.

The Red Sox always seem to be trading away players at the deadline when the returns are minimal. They are never "bad" when the prices are ridiculous.
 

BaseballJones

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Today's game is the 123rd for the Sox. They have 39 games left.

For those 39 games, to secure the single game wild card spot, they must play as well (or better than) Oakland and NY. That seems possible.

To secure the division, they'd have to play 6 games better than Tampa (and generally better than NY.) I think that ship has likely sailed.
I agree. As hot as the Yankees have been, no way they keep this pace up. On July 16 they were 46-44. Since then they've gone 22-8 (.733). They'll come back to earth. And the Sox are NOT a 6-13 (.316) team the rest of the way...that 6-13 is what they are in their last 19 games.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I don’t buy the argument that the team wasn’t good enough- they clearly were, nobody was making that argument at the deadline.
If they clearly were, why aren't they now? It was less than 3 weeks ago. They were either playing way over their heads or they are completely underperforming now.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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If they clearly were, why aren't they now? It was less than 3 weeks ago. They were either playing way over their heads or they are completely underperforming now.
It’s a shallow team that over relies on a few offensive players. The starting pitching is weak, and has been all year, and the few reliable relievers have not been as effective recently. I don’t think it’s that complex. They need to reinforce the lineup (ideally at 1b, although an OF who hits LHP would have been nice), and add help pitching (either another impact reliever and or a starter). How many times in the past month have we had Dalbec / Franchy / Marwin / Chavis / Duran up in a big spot?

No moves could have completely staved off the struggle but a couple more wins over the past 6 weeks would have helped, especially if you are a believer in momentum and all that. Sox competitors all added and have outplayed them, esp head to head.

Maybe none of this matters in the end but it certainly seems possible that the Red Sox playoff fate is determined by a few games.

What’s done is done and there’s no way to know how the team would have reacted with more help in the past few months, but I don’t but the argument that the team wasn’t good enough and wasn’t worth improving.
 

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It's almost like they were never that good and were playing over their heads.
When people say this, I don't know what it means. Seriously.

Are there a core group of players on the Sox who established a baseline, then significantly exceeded expectations in a non-replicatable way, who have now returned to that baseline?
 

Cesar Crespo

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When people say this, I don't know what it means. Seriously.

Are there a core group of players on the Sox who established a baseline, then significantly exceeded expectations in a non-replicatable way, who have now returned to that baseline?
It's expected Win/Loss record based on runs scored and runs allowed. It's replicable with luck. Sometimes you have it, sometimes you don't.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Sure, the Pythagorean record suggested they were winning more games than they should have (although all that really means is when you win, the margins are smaller than when you lose…:hence the Jays look like the best team in the AL) but the expected W/L was still that of a contender. There was nothing suggesting that the team was not a contender and doomed to go into a tailspin.
 

Max Power

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When people say this, I don't know what it means. Seriously.

Are there a core group of players on the Sox who established a baseline, then significantly exceeded expectations in a non-replicatable way, who have now returned to that baseline?
It's mostly the bullpen. Even when they were going well, they were putting way too many runners on base. The pen as a whole had a WHIP over 1.3, but lucking into not letting in runs. Now they're no longer stranding those runners and it's sunk the team.

The offensive side needs to make adjustments, too. Early in the season they were able to crush teams by swinging early and often. Now teams are pitching them outside the zone more and they approach is all screwed up.

There's nothing you can do about the pitchers other than hope they get better or hope Richards and Perez really take to being in the pen. The second should be handled by the coaching staff, and if it's not, they need to be replaced by those who will.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Sure, the Pythagorean record suggested they were winning more games than they should have (although all that really means is when you win, the margins are smaller than when you lose…:hence the Jays look like the best team in the AL) but the expected W/L was still that of a contender. There was nothing suggesting that the team was not a contender and doomed to go into a tailspin.
They are still a "contender" now.

Besides that, isn't there like endless research to suggest deadline deals ultimately have little impact?
 

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This team was a lot fun to watch for the first 100 games of the season and while I don't think any of us thought the collapse would be this bad, but I think most of us would have agreed THEN that this team was not as good as they were playing. Offensively there were 3-4 spots in the batting order that on any given night was being carried by the others. That's not sustainable. The rotation as a whole was never better mediocre at best with 4 of the 5 often struggling when the team was playing it's best. They were usually bailed out by the bullpen or late inning heroics by the offense. That is not sustainable. There were glaring holes at (both offensively and defensively) at certain positions and an incredibly weak bench that have only been marginally addressed with replacement pieces (Sale and Houck excluded) that really haven't improved the team. There have also been (IMO) too many questionable in game decisions by both players and the coaching staff i.e. Terrible base running decisions, lack of plate discipline and management of the pitching staff to name a few. The fact that this continues as the team is playing terribly is not sustainable if there is going to be a serious effort to right the ship. I hope that in the remaining games the Sox are able to feast on the weakest opponents who left on the schedule but they still have to take care of business against Tampa and the MFY and ATM they don't look like they have the capability to do so.
 

sean1562

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This team was a lot fun to watch for the first 100 games of the season and while I don't think any of us thought the collapse would be this bad, but I think most of us would have agreed THEN that this team was not as good as they were playing. Offensively there were 3-4 spots in the batting order that on any given night was being carried by the others. That's not sustainable. The rotation as a whole was never better mediocre at best with 4 of the 5 often struggling when the team was playing it's best. They were usually bailed out by the bullpen or late inning heroics by the offense. That is not sustainable. There were glaring holes at (both offensively and defensively) at certain positions and an incredibly weak bench that have only been marginally addressed with replacement pieces (Sale and Houck excluded) that really haven't improved the team. There have also been (IMO) too many questionable in game decisions by both players and the coaching staff i.e. Terrible base running decisions, lack of plate discipline and management of the pitching staff to name a few. The fact that this continues as the team is playing terribly is not sustainable if there is going to be a serious effort to right the ship. I hope that in the remaining games the Sox are able to feast on the weakest opponents who left on the schedule but they still have to take care of business against Tampa and the MFY and ATM they don't look like they have the capability to do so.
You can say this about the NYY as well. We are still tied for the WC after the Yankees have had their hottest streak all season and we have had our worst. This team is not dead in the water. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to win a season series against the Yankees with a .769 winning percentage, which is what we had before yesterday. We are still 10-5 against them for the year. Andrew Heaney sucks and our next 9 games are against the Twins, Rangers, and Indians.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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At this point, though, the Yankees lineup and especially pitching staff looks better than the Sox. They have upgraded at a lot of positions and even their weak spots, like Gardner, get on base at a decent clip. I suspect they will continue to win low scoring games which the Sox have had trouble with lately.

Win today and 6 of the next 9 would make everyone feel a lot better. Sox are terrible against power pitchers, so they should beat up Heaney (although they can be vulnerable to lefties) but I imagine he will have a very short leash.
 

BaseballJones

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It's a move you make to make it look like you are doing something. It's very possible the team would have been better off moving away pieces, especially given the returns for some of the players traded away.

The Red Sox always seem to be trading away players at the deadline when the returns are minimal. They are never "bad" when the prices are ridiculous.
Adding Schwarber is more than just "making it look like you are doing something". He's a good player and a huge improvement for the lineup.
 

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I agree. As hot as the Yankees have been, no way they keep this pace up. On July 16 they were 46-44. Since then they've gone 22-8 (.733). They'll come back to earth. And the Sox are NOT a 6-13 (.316) team the rest of the way...that 6-13 is what they are in their last 19 games.
This keeps getting repeated but they were banking wins with some truly awful players on their roster. Those players are mostly gone now.

They should have been buried six feet under but weren't (hey they at least beat Tampa though - woohoo!).
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Adding Schwarber is more than just "making it look like you are doing something". He's a good player and a huge improvement for the lineup.
Him being a huge improvement all depends on who he is replacing in the lineup. If he’s playing first and replacing Dalbec / Cordero / Shaw, it’s massive. But if he is DH or playing LF it’s a little more complicated because Dalbec or Shaw is still in the lineup.

They really need Arroyo back.
 

YTF

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You can say this about the NYY as well. We are still tied for the WC after the Yankees have had their hottest streak all season and we have had our worst. This team is not dead in the water. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to win a season series against the Yankees with a .769 winning percentage, which is what we had before yesterday. We are still 10-5 against them for the year. Andrew Heaney sucks and our next 9 games are against the Twins, Rangers, and Indians.
Here's the problem with your comp, the Yankees are STILL in the midst or there hottest streak and the Red Sox are STILL in the midst of their worst. You're absolutely right, they are not dead in the water, but I think you're misguided to compare the things that you highlighted from my post and make it Yankeecentric. While there are four remaining games left with New York, this has little to do with the Yankees. Out side of those games, the Sox have zero say over what the Yankees so. They have far more control over over their own destiny than that of other teams. Yes they can be helped by other teams, but they have no control over that. And FWIW, the Yankees also have the twins, Rangers and Indians left on their schedule as well as another 6 vs Baltimore as do the Sox. Overall the Sox Sched does seem to play slightly favorable to N.Y.'s but ATM Ny is playing much better than Boston.
 

BaseballJones

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And how many wins do you think he is worth over the course of 40 games?
I can't imagine too many. How many wins do you think Mike Trout would be over the course of 40 games? More than Schwarber, obviously, but also, not many.

This keeps getting repeated but they were banking wins with some truly awful players on their roster. Those players are mostly gone now.

They should have been buried six feet under but weren't (hey they at least beat Tampa though - woohoo!).
The Red Sox were banking wins with truly awful players too. But, of course, some of those guys are still here.
 

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I suspect they will continue to win low scoring games which the Sox have had trouble with lately.
I forget the actual record, but it was mentioned during the MLBN telecast yesterday that the Yankees have the best record this season in game decided by one or two runs. That's the type of stat that matters when you basically have three teams fighting for two playoff spots
 

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The saying goes"...never as bad as you look...never as good as you look...". We should add, "...but always as mediocre as you look."

We should take no solace that the Red Sox have an easy schedule coming up. Great. They should play >.500 ball against these shitty teams. That doesn't make them a good team or a title-contending team, mostly due to the reasons cited many time above
- Inconsistent lineup
- Poor bullpen
- Mediocre starters

You have to admire the Yankees for motoring through a tough injury/covid year and for picking up real pieces at the deadline. The Yankee bullpen is devestated, but look at what those guys did to our hitters yesterday. At full strength, that team is heads and shoulders above the Red Sox and at 3/4 strength they remain contenders.

This isn't the end of the world. The leagues are littered with marginal teams that could go somewhere if everything breaks right - but there are still the superior teams that rightfully belong in the playoffs. I'm not sure the Yankees are one of those (the Rays certainly are) and let's see if they can sustain the current pace, but even if the Red Sox slip into the playoffs, no one is going to crown them the most talented team on the field. I'm OK with seeing how the organization develops since the powers that be absolutely determined that this was not the year to go all-in and that they (rightfully) would not waiver from rebuilding the system.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I can't imagine too many. How many wins do you think Mike Trout would be over the course of 40 games? More than Schwarber, obviously, but also, not many.



The Red Sox were banking wins with truly awful players too. But, of course, some of those guys are still here.
If you went by expected value, Trout is worth around 2.5 and Kyle is worth about 0.5.

And whatever negative value the players they were replacing would be tacked on too.
 

YTF

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Him being a huge improvement all depends on who he is replacing in the lineup. If he’s playing first and replacing Dalbec / Cordero / Shaw, it’s massive. But if he is DH or playing LF it’s a little more complicated because Dalbec or Shaw is still in the lineup.

They really need Arroyo back.
Yes this enhances the Schwarber signing. This along with Plawecki getting more playing time strengthens the team, lengthens to batting order and allows for a massive rotational situation in the lineup that allows a good number of ABs for everyone while building in and extra day off or two down the stretch that at the same time allows for better in game bench options if needed.
 

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I forget the actual record, but it was mentioned during the MLBN telecast yesterday that the Yankees have the best record this season in game decided by one or two runs. That's the type of stat that matters when you basically have three teams fighting for two playoff spots
You'd think with a combustible bullpen this wouldn't be the case but alas.
 

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We should take no solace that the Red Sox have an easy schedule coming up.
Especially since the Yankees might have an easier schedule from here on out.

Really, the focus at this point should be on Oakland, which is going through a rough patch of its own
 

cantor44

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Him being a huge improvement all depends on who he is replacing in the lineup. If he’s playing first and replacing Dalbec / Cordero / Shaw, it’s massive. But if he is DH or playing LF it’s a little more complicated because Dalbec or Shaw is still in the lineup.

They really need Arroyo back.
Agree here. I like Schwarb and have enjoyed his at bats so far - really appreciate his plate discipline on a team that otherwise has none. But not having him play first base makes him awfully redundant and even has him squeeze playing time from players who have performed well. It shoves JD to the field which degrades the defense ....so ...right now feeling like square peg a bit. I mean the depth is always helpful. But in this case his acquisition doesn't seem to address plugging a hole, as it was sold ...
 

YTF

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Agree here. I like Schwarb and have enjoyed his at bats so far - really appreciate his plate discipline on a team that otherwise has none. But not having him play first base makes him awfully redundant and even has him squeeze playing time from players who have performed well. It shoves JD to the field which degrades the defense ....so ...right now feeling like square peg a bit. I mean the depth is always helpful. But in this case his acquisition doesn't seem to address plugging a hole, as it was sold ...
Having JD in the OF isn't anyone's first choice, but it's a far better option that what we had a couple of weeks ago and it's what we have until you get to the point of if/when we see Swcharber/Verdugo/Hernadez/Renfroe/Duran in the OF and Hernandez/Arroyo at 2B
 

cantor44

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Having JD in the OF isn't anyone's first choice, but it's a far better option that what we had a couple of weeks ago and it's what we have until you get to the point of if/when we see Swcharber/Verdugo/Hernadez/Renfroe/Duran in the OF and Hernandez/Arroyo at 2B
What about Schwarber at first base? What happened to that?
Would be delicious to see him there, with Verdugo, Hernandez, Renfroe in the outfield, JD at DH and Arroyo at 2B ...That would be maximal use of their best players ...but, alas ... maybe in his reps at first before games Schwarb isn't cutting it.
 

YTF

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What about Schwarber at first base? What happened to that?
Would be delicious to see him there, with Verdugo, Hernandez, Renfroe in the outfield, JD at DH and Arroyo at 2B ...That would be maximal use of their best players ...but, alas ... maybe in his reps at first before games Schwarb isn't cutting it.
I'm pretty confident in saying that Schwarber playing 1B was always about getting his bat in the lineup over Dalbec's. For whatever reason it's yet to happen and obviously at this point they don't feel it's the best option. Perhaps it partly due to the fact that Dalbec has been hitting better as of late and as sketchy as his defense has been at times, there is little reason to think that Swcharber will be better defensively.
 

JimD

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The Sox are 69-53 and essentially tied for a wild-card berth with 40 games to go. We would have gladly taken our chances with this before the season. And in 2015, 2014 and lots of other non-competitive years that I've rooted for this team.

This is not to hand-wave away the lost lead and those banked wins in the division over the MFY's. This losing streak has sucked and it's stunk and it's sucked. But it's done. This team is certainly capable of righting the ship again and reeling off enough wins to push the Yankees or A's aside and get a shot at the playoffs. Not guaranteed, but possible.

If this team can't pile up series wins over the next month against the dregs, then it was never going to happen for them this year. I think they get it done. Make it so, AC.
 

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If this team can't pile up series wins over the next month against the dregs, then it was never going to happen for them this year. I think they get it done.
Yep ... I think we're looking at a Red Sox-Yankees wild card game
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Dalbec’s hot streak seems like a mirage to me. He went 7-11 in the last game of the TB series and the first two games vs Baltimore. The Sox outscored their opponents 44-11 in those games. It was good to see him hitting, but everyone was hitting in those games.

Excluding those games, he’s 5-23 in the month with 1 XBH, 2 BB, and 11 K, after a June which saw him go 210/234/306 with 1 bb and 25k in 62 AB.

He’s especially vulnerable against power pitchers - 183/246/267 with 4 bb and 36 k in 65 PA’s, and naturally, relievers (200/248/387 with 7 bb and 66 k in 165 PA’s).

I’d start him against lefties and crappy pitchers overall but I don’t think we should expect much from him the rest of the way. The more Plawecki at first the better.
 

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Dalbec’s hot streak seems like a mirage to me. He went 7-11 in the last game of the TB series and the first two games vs Baltimore. The Sox outscored their opponents 44-11 in those games. It was good to see him hitting, but everyone was hitting in those games.

Excluding those games, he’s 5-23 in the month with 1 XBH, 2 BB, and 11 K, after a June which saw him go 210/234/306 with 1 bb and 25k in 62 AB.

He’s especially vulnerable against power pitchers - 183/246/267 with 4 bb and 36 k in 65 PA’s, and naturally, relievers (200/248/387 with 7 bb and 66 k in 165 PA’s).

I’d start him against lefties and crappy pitchers overall but I don’t think we should expect much from him the rest of the way. The more Plawecki at first the better.
They've been doing exactly that over the last month. Dalbec has made two starts against a right handed pitcher since July 23 (when he faced Gerritt Cole), and that was Friday and Saturday against the O's (5 for 8 with 3 HR). Otherwise, he's started exclusively against lefty starters. In that stretch, which includes 6 pinch hit/defensive sub appearances (14 starts, 20 games total), he's hitting .300/.386/.640/1.026. Sure, if we ignore the good games, he's a shitty hitter. But those games still count.

And Plawecki has played 2 innings at 1B all season, both because of pinch hitters that left them with no other options. I don't think Plawecki is a solution at 1B.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Ugh, I guess you are right re: Plawecki…and as little confidence as I have in Dalbec, I have less in Shaw. Not even sure what Shaw brings over Marwin. Lefty bat but he hasn’t hit righties in the last few years at all. Seems like drawing walks is the only skill he has left.