The Red Sox ARE good. So now what?

[Farty Barrett]

Would be nice to see Pedro Castellanos promoted. He’s a year younger than Wilson (he’s 23), and has always made good contact. His power is showing up with Portland this year. Slugging .497 with 10 doubles and 11 dingers. At 6’3” 245, adding power helps his corner OF profile. He’s played some first base too. 106 games played at first in 2019.
Sox prospects projects him as 1B only but he’s played Left all year. They also mention plate discipline as a weakness. He’s doubled his walk rate this year. Up to 8.7%
He doesn’t have Wilson’s speed but more than makes up for it with his hit tool. And based on the speedsters we have in Duran and Jimenez and Rosario, neither Wilson nor Castellanos we’re gonna see CF. What can he do with the Woo?

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

No real surprise. He was DFA to make room for one of the new pitchers. Having a decent year in Worcester but wasn't going to crack the big club without a couple significant injuries. If they didn't let him go now, he'd have probably been a roster crunch casualty in the winter anyway.

Now the Sox have nothing to show for Blake Swihart. Oh well.

I’m a little surprised they didn’t get something back in exchange (not that it would have been much), but maybe the pending roster crunch was a factor there.

 

[jon abbey]

I’m a little surprised they didn’t get something back in exchange (not that it would have been much), but maybe the pending roster crunch was a factor there.

There are no trades allowed for the remainder of the season under this year’s rules. DFAd guys are either claimed and added to that team’s 40 man, sent to the minors if no one claims them (if they have options, otherwise they can opt out) or released.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

There are no trades allowed for the remainder of the season under this year’s rules. DFAd guys are either claimed and added to that team’s 40 man, sent to the minors if no one claims them (if they have options, otherwise they can opt out) or released.

I did not know that. I knew about the no waiver trades thing, but I didn’t realize it applied to situations like this also. Nevermind, then!

 

[YTF]

Better not to underestimate any opponent, but let's not pretend that Detroit and Boston have faced schedules that are even remotely similar since June 1st.

In that span Detroit has played teams with winning records 21 times, and 8 of those times were against teams with negative run differentials despite a winning record (Seattle, Cleveland, and St. Louis). They played 31 games vs teams under .500, 17 of those games against last-place opponents.

Meanwhile, Boston has played teams with winning records 38 times (none of which have negative run differentials) and teams with losing records only 16 times (and of those, 5 games were against teams with positive run differentials despite losing records) with a grand total of 1 game against a last-place opponent.

That said Detroit is 11-10 against teams with a winning record since June 1st, although only 6-9 against teams with winning records and positive run differentials.

Nevertheless a sweep on the road is always a challenge.

Yep, just came here to post similar. But you've broken it down much better than I would have

 

[curly2]

I read it as Bloom had guys such as Wilson whose 40-man spots were in jeopardy and thought he would be able to include them in deals but had no interest, except in Scherff.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Would be nice to see Pedro Castellanos promoted. He’s a year younger than Wilson (he’s 23), and has always made good contact. His power is showing up with Portland this year. Slugging .497 with 10 doubles and 11 dingers. At 6’3” 245, adding power helps his corner OF profile. He’s played some first base too. 106 games played at first in 2019.
Sox prospects projects him as 1B only but he’s played Left all year. They also mention plate discipline as a weakness. He’s doubled his walk rate this year. Up to 8.7%
He doesn’t have Wilson’s speed but more than makes up for it with his hit tool. And based on the speedsters we have in Duran and Jimenez and Rosario, neither Wilson nor Castellanos we’re gonna see CF. What can he do with the Woo?

He was moved to LF to make way for Casas. He's more a 1b playing LF than a LF. His increased walk rate is probably due to the increased power. He also hardly strikes out (17.3% K% rate this year, 13.1% for his career). They mention "swing and miss" is a huge part of his game but there's a pretty big sample out there now.

The power actually showed up at the end of 2019, where he hit 7 HR in his last 20 games (75 AB). He now has 18 HR in his last 321 at bats. Looking at sox prospects, it looks like they added that blurb about the end of 2019. Guess I hadn't read it in awhile. He's never going to be a huge prospect but neither was Travis Shaw. Not really comparing his play to Shaw, just there are always unheralded prospects who have decent careers. I'd love to see him promoted but I'm not sure it matters much in the grand scheme of things. He'll start in AAA next year at the very least and he's not coming to Boston this year. I like him considerably more than Dalbec (looking forward) but I'm a total fan boy and have never cared for Dalbec.

 

[rhswanzey]

Not sure where to put this - not even sure it’s worth posting about! - but Marcus Wilson is gone:

Who gets DFA’d when Sale comes back next week? Someone on the 26, or someone in the minors?

Santana?

 

[bosockboy]

Who gets DFA’d when Sale comes back next week? Someone on the 26, or someone in the minors?

Santana?

Andriese?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Andriese?

 

[thestardawg]

Couldn’t it be Garrett Richards.

 

[rhswanzey]

I’d be really surprised to see this team cut MLB pitching depth, even if it isn’t very good. They’re not in that position in terms of SP performance or health.

Mata to 60-day DL opens a spot, but per Chris Hatfield, doing so burns his first service year.

I landed on Santana due to the Schwarber acquisition. His positional flexibility is superfluous with a healthy Gonzalez, and now we aren’t quite as starved for LHH.

Beyond that, there are some rostered AA players who haven’t performed very well this year. Looking at not just Wilson but some other waiver claims over the past few days, there’s a decent chance of losing, say, Potts, Rosario or Hernandez.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I’d be really surprised to see this team cut MLB pitching depth, even if it isn’t very good. They’re not in that position in terms of SP performance or health.

Mata to 60-day DL opens a spot, but per Chris Hatfield, doing so burns his first service year.

I landed on Santana due to the Schwarber acquisition. His positional flexibility is superfluous with a healthy Gonzalez, and now we aren’t quite as starved for LHH.

Beyond that, there are some rostered AA players who haven’t performed very well this year. Looking at not just Wilson but some other waiver claims over the past few days, there’s a decent chance of losing, say, Potts, Rosario or Hernandez.

Agree with this.... Santana hasn't shown anything at all. I can imagine he wouldn't even be claimed (although I don't know what that entire process actually is).

 

[Farty Barrett]

I’d be really surprised to see this team cut MLB pitching depth, even if it isn’t very good. They’re not in that position in terms of SP performance or health.

Mata to 60-day DL opens a spot, but per Chris Hatfield, doing so burns his first service year.

I landed on Santana due to the Schwarber acquisition. His positional flexibility is superfluous with a healthy Gonzalez, and now we aren’t quite as starved for LHH.

Beyond that, there are some rostered AA players who haven’t performed very well this year. Looking at not just Wilson but some other waiver claims over the past few days, there’s a decent chance of losing, say, Potts, Rosario or Hernandez.

Of these three you mention, Potts seems to be the most redundant in the organization. A power hitting 3rd baseman (corner guy) with swing and miss tendencies.
He had a nice reputation coming out of SD, but the shine has rubbed off.
Edited to mention another, younger and shinier Blaze Jordan was just promoted a level. Potts better watch out.

 

[YTF]

Who gets DFA’d when Sale comes back next week? Someone on the 26, or someone in the minors?

Santana?

I’d be really surprised to see this team cut MLB pitching depth, even if it isn’t very good. They’re not in that position in terms of SP performance or health.

Mata to 60-day DL opens a spot, but per Chris Hatfield, doing so burns his first service year.

I landed on Santana due to the Schwarber acquisition. His positional flexibility is superfluous with a healthy Gonzalez, and now we aren’t quite as starved for LHH.

Beyond that, there are some rostered AA players who haven’t performed very well this year. Looking at not just Wilson but some other waiver claims over the past few days, there’s a decent chance of losing, say, Potts, Rosario or Hernandez.

If someone in the minors gets DFAed there still has to be a corresponding move of someone being removed from the major league roster. The options there would be limited if dropping someone down. Be it on Sale or Scwarber's return, I think Santana's definitely one who will be gone. I agree with the thought about being weary of cutting MLB pitching depth, but honestly it's hard to tie up a roster spot with someone whose just not functioning as though he can help this team going forward. IMO he needs to show something special tonight and in his next start in order not to be DFAed because there's nowhere to stash him or send him to get his act together.

 

[soxhop411]

I'm predicting a 20-8 record for August. It's a good month mostly balanced against middling to struggling teams with enough divisional matchups to at least keep pace with Tampa. Hoping they can sweep Detroit to start this month off good after a tough July.

Not off to a good start. Just more of the same since the All Star break.

Sox have been outscored 36-13 in the last four games.

 

[bsj]

Really surprised in light of the recent slide the team didn't take a shot at Hamels.

Lifeboat was still out there and instead he becomes LA's #4 or #5 starter.

I get not trading at the deadline because of the prospect cost, but this was not that. I fear Bloom has determined this team is just too far from being able to win this year.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Really surprised in light of the recent slide the team didn't take a shot at Hamels.

Lifeboat was still out there and instead he becomes LA's #4 or #5 starter.

I get not trading at the deadline because of the prospect cost, but this was not that. I fear Bloom has determined this team is just too far from being able to win this year.

I don't think a street free agent can really be called a lifeboat if you're signing him on August 4. Especially if you expect him to be a starting pitcher. How long is to going to take him to ramp up to starter level pitch counts? Sale took four starts (2 weeks) to get to 80 pitches, and that was after a few bullpens and simulated games as well. I don't think Hamels gets the luxury of a rehab stint like that unless they put him on the IL first. By the time he's ready to go (say 75-80+ pitches) it's nearly the end of August. That's if he doesn't suffer any set-backs.

You sign Hamels with the expectation that anything you get from him is a bonus. You don't sign him expecting him to be a difference maker.

 

[bsj]

I don't think a street free agent can really be called a lifeboat if you're signing him on August 4. Especially if you expect him to be a starting pitcher. How long is to going to take him to ramp up to starter level pitch counts? Sale took four starts (2 weeks) to get to 80 pitches, and that was after a few bullpens and simulated games as well. I don't think Hamels gets the luxury of a rehab stint like that unless they put him on the IL first. By the time he's ready to go (say 75-80+ pitches) it's nearly the end of August. That's if he doesn't suffer any set-backs.

You sign Hamels with the expectation that anything you get from him is a bonus. You don't sign him expecting him to be a difference maker.

I suppose. And similarly, I guess he wasnt a sure enough thing to be worth going over the tax. Sigh.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Not off to a good start. Just more of the same since the All Star break.

Sox have been outscored 36-13 in the last four games.

This, as aggravating as it is, is the long-expected regression to the mean. The team's pythag in no way supported the record they had before this slide.

I think they're being far too cautious with Sale right now. He's getting another rehab start on Saturday, but that will delay his arrival by another week. I think they should have him start against Toronto on Saturday; it's a doubleheader and they need help. He's looked great. They've lost five in a row and the divisional lead is gone, they're about to waste the entire season if they don't stop the bleeding immediately.

The starting pitching has been awful during this slide and they're not doing enough to fix it IMO. I'd have Sale start ASAP.

 

[Harry Hooper]

This, as aggravating as it is, is the long-expected regression to the mean. The team's pythag in no way supported the record they had before this slide.

I think they're being far too cautious with Sale right now.

Given Sale's importance to this club, I don't think being too cautious is possible. We know how competitive this guy is on the mound, and he's a prime candidate to push things too hard in a real game.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Given Sale's importance to this club, I don't think being too cautious is possible. We know how competitive this guy is on the mound, and he's a prime candidate to push things too hard in a real game.

He's looked great in rehab. I don't think getting one more start will help him all that much, he's ready now. But they're going to waste another week of the season waiting for him instead while the playoffs shot slips away.

 

[cantor44]

Part of the problem is that '18 set a crazy high bar. Even '13 was a bit of a cruise to the postseason.

The AL East will be a real dogfight in late August and September just like in, ahem, 2011. At least now we have a play in game so a 90 win season won't go to a complete waste. Buckle up!

I think some folks - myself included -

This, as aggravating as it is, is the long-expected regression to the mean. The team's pythag in no way supported the record they had before this slide.

I think they're being far too cautious with Sale right now. He's getting another rehab start on Saturday, but that will delay his arrival by another week. I think they should have him start against Toronto on Saturday; it's a doubleheader and they need help. He's looked great. They've lost five in a row and the divisional lead is gone, they're about to waste the entire season if they don't stop the bleeding immediately.

The starting pitching has been awful during this slide and they're not doing enough to fix it IMO. I'd have Sale start ASAP.

Word. Inexplicably drop Houck down a start, and extend Sale's rehab, even though he's a pitch count that makes him viable?? Assuming he's not experiencing any arm discomfort, bring him up already. Where's the urgency from FO?

 

[cantor44]

Interesting to note that rosters only expand to 28 in September. It used to be your could kinda stash guys like Andreise and Santana through IL trips (real or not) at this point in the season, just to preserve depth, knowing in September a huge roster expansion is possible. No more. They will have to cut bait with some guys when Sale, Houck, Arroyo, and Schwarb come on board. You assume they add Wong and an arm in September, so, some folks currently on the roster are gonna go.

 

[mwonow]

I think some folks - myself included -

Word. Inexplicably drop Houck down a start, and extend Sale's rehab, even though he's a pitch count that makes him viable?? Assuming he's not experiencing any arm discomfort, bring him up already. Where's the urgency from FO?

FBoFW, the FO doesn't seem to have any urgency. As fans, we see a team with a real shot in need of help, and want to see that help added ASAP. The FO let the deadline pass without adding needed pieces, and now is slow-walking Sale and Houck.

In Chaim we trust? Rationally, I recognize that his moves all make/might make sense. But personally, I think he needs to win something before he gets that kind of treatment. I'm with SJH - free the pitchers! (and please, no more Richards. He's beyond post-COVID 2020 Cam awful at this point.

 

[JimD]

Fire Chaim, bring back Dombrowski and find the modern-day equivalent to Don Zimmer - pedal to the medal, baby!

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Fire Chaim, bring back Dombrowski and find the modern-day equivalent to Don Zimmer - pedal to the medal, baby!

Ortiz?

 

[Al Zarilla]

I think what happened was the team was very happy, even ecstatic when they heard that Cora was coming back. The guys probably worked really hard getting ready and came into the season with a lot of enthusiasm. They played very well for a long time except for the opening series with Baltimore. Now, they're kind of ground down, worn out. We'll see if something can bring them back.I hope so. I know it's still only a short losing streak.

 

[Pedroia's Itchy Nose]

Another tidbit:

Over the last 9 games the Red Sox are 10-74 (.119) with RISP. During the same span the team hit .251.

Meanwhile the pitching staff put up a 6.51 ERA on a 4.35 FIP. Opponents went 22-82 (.268) with RISP on a .278 average overall.

Clearly the Red Sox have not been playing their best baseball over the past week or two, but at least some of the frustration with the offense is due to bad sequencing and the pitching has put up much better peripherals than the results suggest. Just a small silver lining.

 

[soxhop411]

View: https://twitter.com/JoeyMacHockey/status/1423394941116497920

Munoz taking some ground balls at second today.

 

[cantor44]

Not sure if this is the thread for it, forgive me if this is too tangential. But watching JD get up twice today with men in scoring position, work the count to 3-1 both times, only to strike out once, and I believe pop out the second time, well, it felt emblematic of this slide (on the offensive side). Got me worrying that maybe JD is kinda in post prime years. Still a good player, and I expect he'll bounce back some from this slump at some point this season, but maybe he's not a guy who can carry a team anymore.

If you combine the shortened 2020 season with this season so far, you get basically one full season. Looking at his conventional stats for 2020 and 2021 together his line looks like this:

600 AB, 158 H, 44 2B, 3 3B, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 64 BB (and 5 IBB 3 HBP), 162 K, 263 BA, 342 OBP, 486 SLG (828 OPS) ...

That's a real nice hitter. But not a star bat of a championship team ... I know advanced analytics would show more, not sure where his BAbip, etc., stand ... though his Ks up from past, which is a pretty good indicator. He'll be 34 in a couple weeks ....

These depressed numbers (six seasons prior to 2020 all significantly better) might mean he DOESN'T opt out. Which could be nice in a sense, provided Bloom also convinces Schwarb to stay or gets Bryant or some such ...

 

[soxhop411]

Does anyone have a gammons translation device
View: https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/1423435164823207939?s=21

 

[Gubanich Plague]

My guess is that Gammo forgot the word "happy":

". . .made the Red Sox development people happy they turned down. . ."

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Another tidbit:

Over the last 9 games the Red Sox are 10-74 (.119) with RISP. During the same span the team hit .251.

Meanwhile the pitching staff put up a 6.51 ERA on a 4.35 FIP. Opponents went 22-82 (.268) with RISP on a .278 average overall.

Clearly the Red Sox have not been playing their best baseball over the past week or two, but at least some of the frustration with the offense is due to bad sequencing and the pitching has put up much better peripherals than the results suggest. Just a small silver lining.

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1423600991723614211?s=20

 

[JimD]

These guys are too good to continue playing this badly. The storm clouds have to break at some point.

 

[tims4wins]

These guys are too good to continue playing this badly. The storm clouds have to break at some point.

But... are they? By pythag they should be ~59.5-50.5. They have overperformed by 4.5 games so far. Their pythag has them as an 87 win team, which feels about right. Obviously they are better than a .222 team, but I expect them to play as about an 87 team the rest of the way. That would get them to 92 wins, likely a WC spot.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Yup. They were playing way above their heads to the ASB. Their pythag showed it, and this is nasty regression to the mean.

Perhaps Sale will provide a boost but I suspect he'll be back too late to provide any genuine overall record improvement.

 

[JimD]

Perhaps Sale will provide a boost but I suspect he'll be back too late to provide any genuine overall record improvement.

Nine or ten starts from Sale has to give the team a better opportunity to win if it means that many fewer games started by Richards or Perez. Same with Houck.

 

[Niastri]

Nine or ten starts from Sale has to give the team a better opportunity to win if it means that many fewer games started by Richards or Perez. Same with Houck.

I agree entirely! The wheels haven't come off, is just a bad streak. The lack of hitting with RISP caused at least a couple of these losses. The same thing happened for a stretch in 2004... Theo said "They'll start getting them in soon" back then. And so they did. The same will happen this year.

The additions of Sale and Houck will ease the entire pitching staff, as cascading effects occur by removing the weakest links and reducing the stress on the most critical relievers.

It can't come soon enough. It's hard to watch this kind of stretch.

 

[Max Power]

I agree entirely! The wheels haven't come off, is just a bad streak. The lack of hitting with RISP caused at least a couple of these losses. The same thing happened for a stretch in 2004... Theo said "They'll start getting them in soon" back then. And so they did. The same will happen this year.

The additions of Sale and Houck will ease the entire pitching staff, as cascading effects occur by removing the weakest links and reducing the stress on the most critical relievers.

It can't come soon enough. It's hard to watch this kind of stretch.

Let's hope the offensive luck turns around. Because watching the team lose 3-1 rather than 7-1 isn't a whole lot more fun.

 

[YTF]

Yup. They were playing way above their heads to the ASB. Their pythag showed it, and this is nasty regression to the mean.

Perhaps Sale will provide a boost but I suspect he'll be back too late to provide any genuine overall record improvement.

Nine or ten starts from Sale has to give the team a better opportunity to win if it means that many fewer games started by Richards or Perez. Same with Houck.

I agree entirely! The wheels haven't come off, is just a bad streak. The lack of hitting with RISP caused at least a couple of these losses. The same thing happened for a stretch in 2004... Theo said "They'll start getting them in soon" back then. And so they did. The same will happen this year.

The additions of Sale and Houck will ease the entire pitching staff, as cascading effects occur by removing the weakest links and reducing the stress on the most critical relievers.

It can't come soon enough. It's hard to watch this kind of stretch.

I VERY much want to believe in this, but this offense has to get better. Hopfully Schwarber helps with that but, until then (and after) the rest have to find a way to get things done with guys on 2nd and 3rd. Sale can be vintage Sale and Houck can be everything we hope he can be, but remember that former Cy Young winners Felix Hernandez and Jacob deGrom didn't necessarily = wins when they were at their very best.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Just get into the tournament. House money at that point. We know they are capable of playing better than the sum of their parts because we have seen it for big chunks of the year. Championships in sports seem lately so much about who is peaking when and this team can have peaks.

 

[greek_gawd_of_walks]

What's causing the slump offensively? Obviously, this team has struggled with the basic fundamentals of getting the ball in the air with runners on third and less than two outs. Struggled with simply putting the ball in play to get runners over to third following lead off doubles.

The more nagging issue is that it seems Verdugo, X, Devers and Martinez are all playing pretty banged up (the wrists for X and JD are particularly worrisome, although X has turned on some pitches lately). Verdugo seems to be in the deepest funk (although JD has so many empty at bats. He may very well just be this guy, easy to get out with anything off speed away from him. In spring training he looked terrible, a lot like this). When this team was going right, Verdugo was the one in the middle of so much of the good. That at bat late in a win in Minnesota sticks out pretty vividly.

All of this is to say that whatever the case is, they need to start hitting ASAP. And for a team that has been pretty healthy for the lion's share of the year, the bumps and bruises seem to be catching up and bogging the lineup down. If you don't have those guys hitting well, God knows that Vaz, Marwin and Bobby ain't going to save you.

 

[dynomite]

But... are they? By pythag they should be ~59.5-50.5. They have overperformed by 4.5 games so far. Their pythag has them as an 87 win team, which feels about right. Obviously they are better than a .222 team, but I expect them to play as about an 87 team the rest of the way. That would get them to 92 wins, likely a WC spot.

This is certainly true, but when talking about “the rest of the way” I don’t want to discount that within two weeks they could effectively remove the 3 worst performing regulars on the roster (Dalbec, Perez, Richards) and replace them with 3 significant upgrades (Schwarber, Sale, Houck). Maybe at that point they really are better than an 87 win team?

Just get into the tournament. House money at that point. We know they are capable of playing better than the sum of their parts because we have seen it for big chunks of the year. Championships in sports seem lately so much about who is peaking when and this team can have peaks.

As fans of the 2004 Red Sox — who we all remember made some noise from the Wild Card position — I think it’s good to remember that (as KG reminded us a few years later) anything is possible once you’re in the tourney.

Obviously now the single game play-in complicates things, but the 2019 Nationals are recent proof that playing well at the right time remains the best way to win a World Series.

AND all of this said, we’re 1.5 games out of the Division! Lot of meaningful baseball left to be played, and for a season that many expected to be lost that’s already a good thing.

 

[ledsox]

They have the highest chase rate in the game as a team. That seems so bizarre for a Sox team. I think as the season has gone on pitchers have taken advantage of their willingness to swing outside the zone.

 

[tims4wins]

This is certainly true, but when talking about “the rest of the way” I don’t want to discount that within two weeks they could effectively remove the 3 worst performing regulars on the roster (Dalbec, Perez, Richards) and replace them with 3 significant upgrades (Schwarber, Sale, Houck). Maybe at that point they really are better than an 87 win team?



As fans of the 2004 Red Sox — who we all remember made some noise from the Wild Card position — I think it’s good to remember that (as KG reminded us a few years later) anything is possible once you’re in the tourney.

Obviously now the single game play-in complicates things, but the 2019 Nationals are recent proof that playing well at the right time remains the best way to win a World Series.

AND all of this said, we’re 1.5 games out of the Division! Lot of meaningful baseball left to be played, and for a season that many expected to be lost that’s already a good thing.

The other thing to remember about the 2004 team is their record at this point was worse than the 2021 team. They didn’t begin to click until about a week into August. As you point out things are different now with the play-in, but there’s plenty of time for this team to find its groove again. I personally am skeptical that they’ll play much better than their pythag to date, but teams can get hot this time of year and go on huge runs, like the 04 Sox and the early 00s A’s, who seemed to dominate August and September each year (though not in October as we all know).

 

[cantor44]

They have the highest chase rate in the game as a team. That seems so bizarre for a Sox team. I think as the season has gone on pitchers have taken advantage of their willingness to swing outside the zone.

This was a sub discussion in a thread maybe a month ago ...the efficacy of their current aggressive approach. Some on the board were in favor, others not as much. My feeling was that while the blanket "take the first pitch" approach seem antiquated, my hope was the team would preach neither patience nor aggression, but both/either depending on the situation.

If you look at pitch counts by the third inning Sox vs. opponent, it's always crazily imbalanced (or that's my anecdotal sense). How many times have the Sox not taken advantage of a pitcher struggling with command? Just let them off the hook? How many times has a Sox pitcher had their pitch count driven up within an inning, increasing the odds of a mistake pitch?

Still seems there are a lot of reasons to increase the pitch count of the opposition, it's just automatically taking first pitches that seems strategically unwise. But it seems the Sox, organizationally, have overcorrected ... wonder if they recognize this.

 

[Al Zarilla]

The other thing to remember about the 2004 team is their record at this point was worse than the 2021 team. They didn’t begin to click until about a week into August. As you point out things are different now with the play-in, but there’s plenty of time for this team to find its groove again. I personally am skeptical that they’ll play much better than their pythag to date, but teams can get hot this time of year and go on huge runs, like the 04 Sox and the early 00s A’s, who seemed to dominate August and September each year (though not in October as we all know).

But the 2004 team had hitters one through nine who could scald the ball, and Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez.

 

[Pedroia's Itchy Nose]

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1423600991723614211?s=20

I peeled my numbers from the box scores and had one of those 1-9's as a 2-8. Wonder what happened there. Maybe a hit was later revised as an error? Regardless the putrid numbers are very close!

I also really wonder about the changes in umpiring trends. Just looking at the game yesterday it seemed like the strikeout of Martinez that should have been a walk was hugely impactful in killing what could have been a big inning.

 

[Rovin Romine]

But... are they? By pythag they should be ~59.5-50.5. They have overperformed by 4.5 games so far. Their pythag has them as an 87 win team, which feels about right. Obviously they are better than a .222 team, but I expect them to play as about an 87 team the rest of the way. That would get them to 92 wins, likely a WC spot.

Pythag is likely over-rated if teams care more about bullpen arms than about limiting blowouts, and/or have a shut-down bullpen.

This was a sub discussion in a thread maybe a month ago ...the efficacy of their current aggressive approach. Some on the board were in favor, others not as much. My feeling was that while the blanket "take the first pitch" approach seem antiquated, my hope was the team would preach neither patience nor aggression, but both/either depending on the situation.

If you look at pitch counts by the third inning Sox vs. opponent, it's always crazily imbalanced (or that's my anecdotal sense). How many times have the Sox not taken advantage of a pitcher struggling with command? Just let them off the hook? How many times has a Sox pitcher had their pitch count driven up within an inning, increasing the odds of a mistake pitch?

Still seems there are a lot of reasons to increase the pitch count of the opposition, it's just automatically taking first pitches that seems strategically unwise. But it seems the Sox, organizationally, have overcorrected ... wonder if they recognize this.

Well, the results (as of now) are as follows, for all MLB teams:

Hitting:
The Sox are significantly below average in walks (#22nd overall), but at-average in Ks (#16 overall) (even with Dalbec and Franchy.)
They are #2 in hits. With the low walks this translates to a mildly above average OBP. (#12)

In terms of power, they're #3, with a strong doubles component to that (#1 by a mile), likely a Fenway feature. For homers they're #9.

All that translates into their being #6 in runs, despite our OPS+ being #10. They're within 2 runs of the #4 spot, so they're right up there. Houston leads by a ton, so the offense has been fine, but could have been better if Cora had not commited to play so much dead weight.


Pitching:
Our ERA is league average, but we're #3 in saves. Barnes needs to be considered for team MVP.

We give up a lot of hits (#3) (#4 in hits/9) and walks (#10) but are pretty good (#7) in homer suppression, and are #7 in strikeouts. Possibly why we're #4 in stranding runners.

Our ERA+ is #11, far better than our straight ERA. . .but it seems very much a high-wire act.


Mesh them together and you've got the 6th best record in baseball, 64-46. If Cora was better at talent evals, motivation, and not punting on travel days, we'd likely be 66-44, for the second best record.