Yep, their needs are few, but obvious. There is no need for Bloom to offer anything that would only serve to put certain players on edge or to hype up the fan base. Business as usual, in Chaim we trust.
The Red Sox ARE good. So now what?
- Thread starter grimshaw
- Start date
Sox in an interesting position ...they are a couple weeks (let's hope that soon) from the very essential additions of Sale, Schwarber, and Arroyo. Houck back sooner.
Until that time Devers hurt, X playing hurt, and Cora has to keep trotting out Dalbec and Perez/Erod/Pivetta/Richards ....JD and Renfroe scuffling a bit ...
I think the team might hit a bit of skid here, until some health resumed and Sale and Schwarb arrive on the scene ... I'll try not panic if they go 6-9 or 5-10 coming up, cuz it should get better after a rough patch.
Until that time Devers hurt, X playing hurt, and Cora has to keep trotting out Dalbec and Perez/Erod/Pivetta/Richards ....JD and Renfroe scuffling a bit ...
I think the team might hit a bit of skid here, until some health resumed and Sale and Schwarb arrive on the scene ... I'll try not panic if they go 6-9 or 5-10 coming up, cuz it should get better after a rough patch.
I think may fit better here than the catch all trade deadline
While E-rod is 8-2 since the start of June he has a 5+ ERA
Richards since June has a 6.65 ERA
Pérez has a close to 5 ERA since the start of June...
Sale at 80% (and again IMO I think Sale is going to be on a tight Leash (in terms on IP and pitches per game) as he comes back from TJ..... Since the last thing they want is to have him miss more time in future seasons)
Would partially solve one of those SP problems... that still leaves 2 other spots in the rotation to fix... which again, we would not have had the capital to get via trade this season (on top of RP help and a 1B) without destroying the farm system we have been building back up since the last time we tore it down..
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1421292985170411523
Bloom may have thought this team really may not have been one to go all in on... and I may agree with him
Edit:
also when 4 out of 9 players in your starting lineup are struggling, thats not going to win you many games
Here is Vazquez
here is bogaerts
here is Hunter Renfroe
'
and here is J.D. Martinez
problem is Sale at 80% only fixes one of our problems
While E-rod is 8-2 since the start of June he has a 5+ ERA
Richards since June has a 6.65 ERA
Pérez has a close to 5 ERA since the start of June...
Sale at 80% (and again IMO I think Sale is going to be on a tight Leash (in terms on IP and pitches per game) as he comes back from TJ..... Since the last thing they want is to have him miss more time in future seasons)
Would partially solve one of those SP problems... that still leaves 2 other spots in the rotation to fix... which again, we would not have had the capital to get via trade this season (on top of RP help and a 1B) without destroying the farm system we have been building back up since the last time we tore it down..
we also have this problem as well... We have injuries to key players as well as Duran struggling in his first taste of the majors
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1421292985170411523
Bloom may have thought this team really may not have been one to go all in on... and I may agree with him
Edit:
also when 4 out of 9 players in your starting lineup are struggling, thats not going to win you many games
Here is Vazquez
here is bogaerts
here is Hunter Renfroe
'
and here is J.D. Martinez
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Another thing. The Sox brought in Bloom so that they could act more like the dodgers and the Rays. And by that I mean, get the Sox to the point where they not only make the playoffs every year (and not alternate between making the playoffs and ending up with a top 5 pick). But also have a deep enough farm system that the Sox can go after high $$ free agents and trade from that excess farm depth for impact players at the deadline.
problem is our farm system is nowhere near where it needs to be, where we can trade from it for a “Mad Max” or Bryant.
problem is our farm system is nowhere near where it needs to be, where we can trade from it for a “Mad Max” or Bryant.
Assessing the Sox need 3 starters is correct. But they may well have two of them internally in Sale and Houck. I know there is a high level of variability there, but it's not just wishful thinking to think Sale and Houck could be VAST improvements down the stretch. Given that that is a realistic possibility, I'm not sure why Bloom didn't get assertive about getting ONE starting pitcher better then Pivetta/Perez/Richardson/2021Erod ... that wouldn't have broken the prospect bank, and could have been 1/3 of the 3 part starter solution with the other two internal ...
And also responding to above - Vazquez is clearly gassed. Gets a key single every now and then which I appreciate, but he's not hitting and not fielding all that well either. I really love Vazquez, but he has been one of the most used catchers in the bigs this year. Time to play Plawecki more. Probably a better hitter and CV needs the rest.
Bryant seems like the player we could’ve matched SF for. That’s frustrating since he could essentially be the infield depth complement to the OF depth Merloni described Schwarber as. He covers 3B for Devers now, then slides to 1B.
GTFOH with this Torchy’s blasphemy. Used to eat there multiple times whenever I was in Austin, Houston or Dallas on business. I would kill to have them open a location in Michigan.
Next time you’re in Austin I’ll point you to 20-30 places that will blow your mind if you think Torchy’s is good….
A little off topic but I just can’t abide this Torchy’s love!!!
Okay, I've expressed some disappointment in Bloom with the deadline deals ("reluctant understanding"). And I've been redundant with my sense that the current core's window is closing and that might be reason to be more aggressive (albeit understanding the farm still isn't fully restocked). All that might come off as a little glass half empty on my part.
So - in anticipation of a thread for two months from now:
The 2022 squad stands to be VERY good. Sale back, with Houck, Whitlock, and Eovaldi in the rotation. Same position player team minus maybe JD (though maybe not) but likely plus one good FA bat. Duran maybe a bit more ready, too .....
So - in anticipation of a thread for two months from now:
The 2022 squad stands to be VERY good. Sale back, with Houck, Whitlock, and Eovaldi in the rotation. Same position player team minus maybe JD (though maybe not) but likely plus one good FA bat. Duran maybe a bit more ready, too .....
Thanks for the support. I buy the "secret menu" Matador. Torchy's is pricy now but I've never heard anyone say anything negative about their taste. Mercy! I used to get them at the original spot on South First St. when I worked in downtown Austin.
Aw man, I generally just peruse and see what you fellas have to say, but you're killing Torchy's here! It seems unfair to compare it to other taco joints since they're not really doing tacos as people think of them, but even if you hate it and think it's overpriced, can we get no love for the queso from you? Have a good one!
When you can trust a single pitcher in your rotation, not much bloom could have done.
View: https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/1421615628260102147
View: https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/1421615628260102147
As much as I love this squad, lot of smoke and mirrors with the rotation to get this far. They need to score a lot of runs to win.
This is not just some bad weekend post-trade deadline. 11-12 since the 8 game winning streak at the end of June. They’ve been playing poorly for awhile now, there were just some fun, late inning comebacks mixed in there that had everybody feeling good.
Well, he could have traded for a starter and not bumped Houck down in the crucial stretch (Valdez could have gone down and if necessary you bump Richards to clean up duty in the pen) ....
The Sox head to head vs the Rays are 4 and 4 and have a +10 run differential. They beat the crap out of them when Rays were struggling, and now Tampa is returning the favor. You're not going to just dominate one of the top teams in baseball on the road. If you hold your own, great. That's what they are doing.
They are 29-17 vs the East (same as the Rays). They are 37-28 vs over .500 teams. The Yankees, Jays, A's and White Sox are below .500 (Chicago is 22-29!). Hell so are the Dodgers (22-26).
If you want to argue it's been a bit of a mirage because of the run differential, that's one thing, but they do have 15 games this month vs non-contenders so that gap should widen. Especially with significant contributors returning.
They are 29-17 vs the East (same as the Rays). They are 37-28 vs over .500 teams. The Yankees, Jays, A's and White Sox are below .500 (Chicago is 22-29!). Hell so are the Dodgers (22-26).
If you want to argue it's been a bit of a mirage because of the run differential, that's one thing, but they do have 15 games this month vs non-contenders so that gap should widen. Especially with significant contributors returning.
Do a lot of teams that are weak become weaker after the trade deadline? I wouldn't know how to go about looking into that but since the teams that ARE contenders likely upgraded by getting the remaining talent from the non-contenders, it would seem logical. If the Sox played the Cubs only a month ago I would assume they would take 2/3 in a series... but if they play them after the Trade Deadline as the Cubs currently are constructed, I would bet they'd likely sweep.
Naturally yes, but they also get a chance to bring up prospects who may be better than replacement level. But the AL non-contenders didn't gut themselves this season. Gallo might cost the Rangers a few games and Berrios and Cruz the same with the Twins, but more of it was from the NL. It's not going to have much divisional impact. That's mostly head to head.
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The Red Sox went 13-12 in July
Team offensive stats by month
Team pitching stats by month
Individual offensive stats by month
Offense
View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aodyA-6FZE8cfCPBQKwuxRZdcOUbfGRriseMmPffi40/edit?usp=sharing
Pitching
View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P5Mn69_on6QlTE5D_N85yJMSS8tWi7gtiLCiPaul8u4/edit?usp=sharing
so yah, the Sox record has masked a lot of issues with the team... both on the pitching side and on the hitting side
Nathan Eovaldi is the only sox pitcher to have an ERA under 4 in both June and July
Red sox batters with an OBP over .350 in June and July is Rafael Devers... thats it..
Team offensive stats by month
Team pitching stats by month
Individual offensive stats by month
Offense
View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aodyA-6FZE8cfCPBQKwuxRZdcOUbfGRriseMmPffi40/edit?usp=sharing
Pitching
View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P5Mn69_on6QlTE5D_N85yJMSS8tWi7gtiLCiPaul8u4/edit?usp=sharing
so yah, the Sox record has masked a lot of issues with the team... both on the pitching side and on the hitting side
Nathan Eovaldi is the only sox pitcher to have an ERA under 4 in both June and July
Red sox batters with an OBP over .350 in June and July is Rafael Devers... thats it..
To add on to this
Richards has had one month with an era under 4 (may)
e-rod has had one month with an ERA under 4 (April)
Perez has had one month with an ERA under 4 (may)
Pivetta has had one month with an era under 4 (april)
and like earlier Eovaldi has had 3 months with an era under 4.
months with an era of 5.00 or above
Richards (2) 7+ in June and 5+ in july
E-rod- (2) (7+ in may, 6+ in June)
perez (2) (5+ in June and 6+ in July)
I will try and get our relief pitching stats broken down my month for each player tomorrow .
Please let me know if the above spreadsheets don’t work (I have them as public so you should be able to view them without needing to log into Google)
Richards has had one month with an era under 4 (may)
e-rod has had one month with an ERA under 4 (April)
Perez has had one month with an ERA under 4 (may)
Pivetta has had one month with an era under 4 (april)
and like earlier Eovaldi has had 3 months with an era under 4.
months with an era of 5.00 or above
Richards (2) 7+ in June and 5+ in july
E-rod- (2) (7+ in may, 6+ in June)
perez (2) (5+ in June and 6+ in July)
I will try and get our relief pitching stats broken down my month for each player tomorrow .
Please let me know if the above spreadsheets don’t work (I have them as public so you should be able to view them without needing to log into Google)
Richards is a victim of the sticky stuff crackdown, he doesn't even throw the same pitches that he threw before the crackdown. If he was being paid the minimum and had the assortment of pitches that he currently has, he'd be cut already. So he should be cut and Houck should be permanently promoted in place of him.
Let's go with Sale, Eovaldi, ERod and Houck as the top 4. Let's also bring Seabold up and see if he's better than Perez.
Let's go with Sale, Eovaldi, ERod and Houck as the top 4. Let's also bring Seabold up and see if he's better than Perez.
On July 2nd I posted in this thread about some concerns that the Sox results were exceeding the underlying performance levels, and I think that the last month has born that out a bit. I don't think the Sox were quite as good as they looked in the first half.
That said, I also don't think they are quite as bad as they have looked recently. The team's July ERA marks are rough, but by FIP and xFIP things don't look so grim. Of the starters, only Richards and Perez look awful by FIP, and Perez is actually OK according to xFIP. Sawamura looks likely to crash back to earth, but aside from him, Rios and Workman the bullpen largely looks OK. Darwinzon and Valdez both have rough FIPs but their xFIPs are solid.
I haven't looked very closely at the batting stats, but it sure seems like there have been a lot of squanders recently. Looking at WPA in July of our top hitters only X has been clutch, while JD, Kike and Devers are the bottom three. Verdugo has been very modestly clutch. I suspect that generally when a teams top hitters are mostly negative clutch you're going to see a lot of frustration.
In my last post I noted that the Sox in the first half enjoyed the favor of the umpires (on balls and strikes) according to UmpireScorecards, tied for second in MLB with +.16 favor per game. In just a month the Sox have dropped to 7th in MLB with an average favor of +.06. In the month of July the Sox averaged a favor of -.12 per game. While I didn't calculate the July numbers across baseball, -.12 would be good for third worst in MLB if compared to season totals.
If you have a feeling that the Sox have been on the bad end of a higher proportion of missed calls of late then you're not mistaken.
This team is nearing the end of a brutal stretch of baseball. After August 12th things should get a lot easier. I'll maintain that the Sox were never as strong as they felt going into this month, and probably aren't as vulnerable as they feel now.
That said, I also don't think they are quite as bad as they have looked recently. The team's July ERA marks are rough, but by FIP and xFIP things don't look so grim. Of the starters, only Richards and Perez look awful by FIP, and Perez is actually OK according to xFIP. Sawamura looks likely to crash back to earth, but aside from him, Rios and Workman the bullpen largely looks OK. Darwinzon and Valdez both have rough FIPs but their xFIPs are solid.
I haven't looked very closely at the batting stats, but it sure seems like there have been a lot of squanders recently. Looking at WPA in July of our top hitters only X has been clutch, while JD, Kike and Devers are the bottom three. Verdugo has been very modestly clutch. I suspect that generally when a teams top hitters are mostly negative clutch you're going to see a lot of frustration.
In my last post I noted that the Sox in the first half enjoyed the favor of the umpires (on balls and strikes) according to UmpireScorecards, tied for second in MLB with +.16 favor per game. In just a month the Sox have dropped to 7th in MLB with an average favor of +.06. In the month of July the Sox averaged a favor of -.12 per game. While I didn't calculate the July numbers across baseball, -.12 would be good for third worst in MLB if compared to season totals.
If you have a feeling that the Sox have been on the bad end of a higher proportion of missed calls of late then you're not mistaken.
This team is nearing the end of a brutal stretch of baseball. After August 12th things should get a lot easier. I'll maintain that the Sox were never as strong as they felt going into this month, and probably aren't as vulnerable as they feel now.
IMO, we've won a lot of close games (evident by how many times we've come from behind to win) and we've also gotten crushed a lot when our pitchers have shitty games. Overall, the roster as structured is not a 100-win team. But, this won't matter if we get into the playoffs because our worst pitchers won't get to pitch and Cora has the magic touch. Let's get into the playoffs, we'll be able to do a lot damage if we get there. Unlike 2016 and 2017, we're not a regular season juggernaut, but our playoff roster will be second to none, especially with Sale back, even if he's only able to sit at 91-93mph.
So will everyone else. And, who are our worst pitchers? In a playoff rotation, who are the third and fourth starters? How much difference is there between whoever starts Game 3 and whoever gets bumped?
We've got a good team that has some easily identifiable flaws and doesn't currently have the kind of top echelon farm system it needs to operate at top efficiency. We're more like the 7th best team than the first, and we're probably looking at a loss in either the division series or the lcs and there's not a one of us that wouldn't have taken that at the start of the season.
Let's just have fun, and come back in 2022 a little bit better and a little bit more fun and rinse and repeat until we're old and gray and the entire baseball world hates us for winning too much.
I'm predicting a 20-8 record for August. It's a good month mostly balanced against middling to struggling teams with enough divisional matchups to at least keep pace with Tampa. Hoping they can sweep Detroit to start this month off good after a tough July.
It feels like a number of fans here are almost giving up on this season. The Sox have hit a bumpy patch for sure, but still went 13-12 in July. Yes getting swept by the Rays stinks, but they're a terrific team, and there's no shame in going 4-5 against Tampa over nine games so far this season. Tampa, Toronto, and NY all improved at the deadline, but Boston, by mid-August, should have the additions of Chris Sale and Kyle Schwarber, both of whom should help tremendously.
Despite their holes, they have the third best record in the AL, just 1.5 games behind TB and Hou for the best record in the league. It's not been done with smoke and mirrors. It's been done by good players doing their jobs well. Now, like everyone experiences in a 162-game season, they're hitting a rough spot. JDM is hitting poorly lately, but unless you think that's the real JDM, he will bounce back and mash again. Devers is back after being hurt. There's positives here.
My #1 concern is starting pitching. I've always said that I think Eovaldi is overrated here because he has great stuff. But he's fine. Just not GREAT. But fine. Pivetta is fine. And I really like Houck. And Sale changes things a lot assuming he's even close to being his normal dominant self. If he's not, then yeah there's major issues.
The bullpen is fine. Nice work yesterday.
The team is good and will stay in the hunt. It's good to be in a pennant race, though of course I'd rather be up a half game than down 1.5. Last night's loss was an ouchie for sure.
Despite their holes, they have the third best record in the AL, just 1.5 games behind TB and Hou for the best record in the league. It's not been done with smoke and mirrors. It's been done by good players doing their jobs well. Now, like everyone experiences in a 162-game season, they're hitting a rough spot. JDM is hitting poorly lately, but unless you think that's the real JDM, he will bounce back and mash again. Devers is back after being hurt. There's positives here.
My #1 concern is starting pitching. I've always said that I think Eovaldi is overrated here because he has great stuff. But he's fine. Just not GREAT. But fine. Pivetta is fine. And I really like Houck. And Sale changes things a lot assuming he's even close to being his normal dominant self. If he's not, then yeah there's major issues.
The bullpen is fine. Nice work yesterday.
The team is good and will stay in the hunt. It's good to be in a pennant race, though of course I'd rather be up a half game than down 1.5. Last night's loss was an ouchie for sure.
The 2004 team went 11-14 in June.
The 2007 team went 13-14 in June.
The 2013 team went 15-15 in May.
Yep.
The 2017 Astros went 11-17 in August.
The 2018 Red Sox went 15-11 in September. (which is fine but not electric...but that was one of the most consistently good teams I've ever seen)
The 2019 Nationals went 11-14 in April and 12-17 in May.
We could do this with nearly every WS-winning team. They all have bumpy months. It truly is a marathon and not a sprint. There's going to be some rough stretches along the way. A 13-12 record for July is pretty good for a rough patch.
If nothing else, due to the favorable schedule, I expect the team to do well this month. If they don't, then they could be in real trouble.
Yes, I was thinking about the old adage that even the best teams have long stretches (multiple months?) where they basically play .500 ball.
That’s not to say that I’m happy about the way the Sox are playing… the starting pitching shows serious weakness, and the offense can be very feast or famine. They also seem to make their fair share of mental mistakes. Regardless, it all feels so much worse when it all happens simultaneously. We do have some reinforcements on the way, so if they can hold the line and then make some moves against the weaker competition. There’s still a lot of baseball left to play.
That’s not to say that I’m happy about the way the Sox are playing… the starting pitching shows serious weakness, and the offense can be very feast or famine. They also seem to make their fair share of mental mistakes. Regardless, it all feels so much worse when it all happens simultaneously. We do have some reinforcements on the way, so if they can hold the line and then make some moves against the weaker competition. There’s still a lot of baseball left to play.
Part of the problem is that '18 set a crazy high bar. Even '13 was a bit of a cruise to the postseason.
The AL East will be a real dogfight in late August and September just like in, ahem, 2011. At least now we have a play in game so a 90 win season won't go to a complete waste. Buckle up!
The AL East will be a real dogfight in late August and September just like in, ahem, 2011. At least now we have a play in game so a 90 win season won't go to a complete waste. Buckle up!
Red Sox better play a hell of a series, then. Tigers are 30-24 at home and after going 8-19 overall in April, they're 43-38. Their offense in particular is 8th in wRC+ (108) since June 1st, while the Red Sox are 17th (101).
I wonder if there's any chance we will see Kutter Crawford THIS season. Probably not, but I'll bring up the possibility anyway. I think the odds of seeing him is a non zero number though.
He dominated AA and in his first AAA start he went 6.0 ip, giving up 9 hits, 3r/3r, 1bb/5k. In AA, he had a 3.30 era in 46.1 ip, 33 hits, 17r/17er, 5bb/64k and a WHIP of 0.820. HIs last 4 starts in AA: 2.42 era, 22.1 ip, 16 hits, 6r/6er, 1bb/34k.
He's already 25, but he's not on the 40. It's also only August 2nd, so he has time for a few more starts at the AAA level to see how he fares.
Prior to this year, his career BB% rate was 9.4%. In 2019, it was 11.7%. This year, it's sitting at 3.0%.
He dominated AA and in his first AAA start he went 6.0 ip, giving up 9 hits, 3r/3r, 1bb/5k. In AA, he had a 3.30 era in 46.1 ip, 33 hits, 17r/17er, 5bb/64k and a WHIP of 0.820. HIs last 4 starts in AA: 2.42 era, 22.1 ip, 16 hits, 6r/6er, 1bb/34k.
He's already 25, but he's not on the 40. It's also only August 2nd, so he has time for a few more starts at the AAA level to see how he fares.
Prior to this year, his career BB% rate was 9.4%. In 2019, it was 11.7%. This year, it's sitting at 3.0%.
Better not to underestimate any opponent, but let's not pretend that Detroit and Boston have faced schedules that are even remotely similar since June 1st.
In that span Detroit has played teams with winning records 21 times, and 8 of those times were against teams with negative run differentials despite a winning record (Seattle, Cleveland, and St. Louis). They played 31 games vs teams under .500, 17 of those games against last-place opponents.
Meanwhile, Boston has played teams with winning records 38 times (none of which have negative run differentials) and teams with losing records only 16 times (and of those, 5 games were against teams with positive run differentials despite losing records) with a grand total of 1 game against a last-place opponent.
That said Detroit is 11-10 against teams with a winning record since June 1st, although only 6-9 against teams with winning records and positive run differentials.
Nevertheless a sweep on the road is always a challenge.
Also, for those anticipating a JD opt-out I'm not sure it's quite so clear cut. Since the end of April he's been middling:
X has followed a similar trend, albeit a much less extreme version as he didn't start nearly so high and his decline has been more gradual.
- April: 1.175 OPS | .486 wOBA | 211 wRC+
- May: .802 OPS | .344 wOBA | 115 wRC+
- June: .788 OPS | .331 wOBA | 106 wRC+
- July: .816 OPS | .342 wOBA | 114 wRC+
X has followed a similar trend, albeit a much less extreme version as he didn't start nearly so high and his decline has been more gradual.
In August we play 10 games against the Blue Jays, Rays, and Yankees and 11 games against the Tigers, Orioles, Twins, and Rangers. Looking ahead at the Rays and Yankees schedules though, they seem to have a pretty easy path forward as well, the Rays in particular. They Rays play the Orioles ten times this month. In September they have 7 games against the Tigers and 3 against the Marlins. The Yankees are in the middle of a pretty brutal 17 day stretch of non stop play. They have two days off in the entire month of August and a doubleheader against us on the 17th. We end the year playing the Orioles while they have to face the Blue Jays.
By Fangraphs the Sox face a .496 strength of schedule the rest of the way while the Rays have a .504, Yanks a .506 and Jays a .500.
Those numbers are all calculated based on pre-deadline performance, I wonder how it would look recalibrated in the AL. It's almost a moot point too because September rosters are so different.
This is different now, I believe Sept rosters only go to 28, not potentially 40 anymore.
Yea, the Yanks have a 4 game series against the Athletics at the end of August and 4 against the Mariners coming up. I forgot to check October, our last three games are against the Nationals. So to end the year we have a 6 game stretch against the Nationals and the Orioles, the Yankees play the Blue Jays and Rays, The Rays play the Astros then the Yanks, and the Blue Jays the Yankees then the Orioles. It seems like it will come down to the wire at the end so the Blue Jays and Rays will probably not be resting any players while they play the Yanks.
Not sure where to put this - not even sure it’s worth posting about! - but Marcus Wilson is gone:
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1422275560504532992
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1422275560504532992
No real surprise. He was DFA to make room for one of the new pitchers. Having a decent year in Worcester but wasn't going to crack the big club without a couple significant injuries. If they didn't let him go now, he'd have probably been a roster crunch casualty in the winter anyway.
Now the Sox have nothing to show for Blake Swihart. Oh well.
And lots of enthusiastic posts about how the Sox made him more marketable by playing him in the OF.