The Red Sox ARE good. So now what?

cantor44

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4 good BP arms and a starter being used on their side session day is better than most teams had up until recently.
That said… starters going less than 5- especially in the playoffs- Sox will need Otto, Sawamura, Perez and Richards to step up.
What’s the status with Taylor?
The issue I see is that they don't have a reliable lefty, necessarily. Taylor's absence hurts. But yes - Whitlock, Houck, Braiser, Robles (they way they've been pitching lately) looks pretty good. Interesting to see who else makes the roster from the 'pen...
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Exactly. Now if they had won a couple more vs the MFY maybe they’d be playing the Jays instead. But you could argue they are better off playing the MFY anyway. So whatever. The deadline really didn’t end up mattering from that perspective.
The trade deadline didn't really end up being much of a difference maker for anyone. Exactly one AL team made the post-season that wasn't in such a position at the deadline, the Yankees, and it's arguable that they were good enough to pull it out without their deadline acquisitions.

AL post-season teams on July 30 (ordered by wins): HOU, BOS, TB, CWS, OAK
AL post-season teams on Oct 4 (ordered by wins): TB, HOU, CWS, BOS, NYY
 

tims4wins

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The trade deadline didn't really end up being much of a difference maker for anyone. Exactly one AL team made the post-season that wasn't in such a position at the deadline, the Yankees, and it's arguable that they were good enough to pull it out without their deadline acquisitions.

AL post-season teams on July 30 (ordered by wins): HOU, BOS, TB, CWS, OAK
AL post-season teams on Oct 4 (ordered by wins): TB, HOU, CWS, BOS, NYY
Right, I was just addressing the narrative that the Sox blew the deadline. Unless anyone thought they were going to win 100 games - which as a reminder they've done precisely once since any of us have been alive - then they were destined for a WC spot regardless of deadline moves.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Right, I was just addressing the narrative that the Sox blew the deadline. Unless anyone thought they were going to win 100 games - which as a reminder they've done precisely once since any of us have been alive - then they were destined for a WC spot regardless of deadline moves.
But perhaps not destined to lose to the Yankees tomorrow or in the ALDS or whatever. Picking up Steve Pierce in the middle of the 2018 season surely had little ultimate impact on our regular season finish (8 games ahead of the Yankees), but he sure proved useful in winning the World Series.
 

tims4wins

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But perhaps not destined to lose to the Yankees tomorrow or in the ALDS or whatever. Picking up Steve Pierce in the middle of the 2018 season surely had little ultimate impact on our regular season finish (8 games ahead of the Yankees), but he sure proved useful in winning the World Series.
It’s true, but the alternative is likely facing a Toronto team that I think most analysts would agree is at least better on paper than the MFY. Of course the uniform seems to matter. We’ll see tomorrow.
 

VORP Speed

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It’s true, but the alternative is likely facing a Toronto team that I think most analysts would agree is at least better on paper than the MFY. Of course the uniform seems to matter. We’ll see tomorrow.
Somehow conspiring to keep Toronto at home really was the best thing for all the other AL East teams that made it through.
 

Archer1979

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Right, I was just addressing the narrative that the Sox blew the deadline. Unless anyone thought they were going to win 100 games - which as a reminder they've done precisely once since any of us have been alive - then they were destined for a WC spot regardless of deadline moves.

Well... as much as I thought that Bloom did what we could with what he had in the farm system, the only thing is that the Sox winning percentage against anyone in the AL East not named Baltimore was abysmal. The Sox were battling for the number one record in the majors in July. They may not have won 100 games, but they wouldn't have needed to as TB, NY, and Toronto would have won less had the Sox been more competitive in August and September.
 

tims4wins

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Well... as much as I thought that Bloom did what we could with what he had in the farm system, the only thing is that the Sox winning percentage against anyone in the AL East not named Baltimore was abysmal. The Sox were battling for the number one record in the majors in July. They may not have won 100 games, but they wouldn't have needed to as TB, NY, and Toronto would have won less had the Sox been more competitive in August and September.
Kind of. The Sox went 4-9 against Tampa down the stretch. That would have needed to flip to 8-5 for the Sox to tie them at 96 wins. You can play this what if game all day and if the Sox lost the division by 2-3 games I’d agree with you. But they lost by 8.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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But perhaps not destined to lose to the Yankees tomorrow or in the ALDS or whatever. Picking up Steve Pierce in the middle of the 2018 season surely had little ultimate impact on our regular season finish (8 games ahead of the Yankees), but he sure proved useful in winning the World Series.
This is true though it really feels like the team is more than just needing that piece to put it over the edge when I look at the other teams in the running.

What if is a hard game to play but it really does feel as though hosting the wild card game was about this team's ceiling and winning it all always a very long shot given that the road to a championship this year very well may go through two very good 100 win teams.

I think the Yankees should be slight favorites tomorrow given recent history and bullpen superiority close and late. But I would actually be feeling a bit less hopeful if it were Toronto. It's kind of ironic, or if not ironic interesting, that the Yankees are the opponent in part due to the fact that the Sox couldn't beat them. The Fenway sweep might have kept the Sox from having to face Toronto.
 

grimshaw

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Well... as much as I thought that Bloom did what we could with what he had in the farm system, the only thing is that the Sox winning percentage against anyone in the AL East not named Baltimore was abysmal. The Sox were battling for the number one record in the majors in July. They may not have won 100 games, but they wouldn't have needed to as TB, NY, and Toronto would have won less had the Sox been more competitive in August and September.
The Jays and Sox were 28-29 vs the three others.
The Yanks were 25-32.

The games all count the same. The Sox had (barely) enough, and the Jays despite adding Berrios for significant pieces, did not. It is very likely one or both of their stud contributors (Ray and Semien a combined 11 fWAR) are gone and the Sox lost one prospect. That was a worst case scenario for them since the Sox are in a much better position to improve. The Yankees also expended more resources for the pleasure of a coin flip.

I was meh on the deadline, but maybe Austin Davis is a keeper.
 
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cantor44

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Kind of. The Sox went 4-9 against Tampa down the stretch. That would have needed to flip to 8-5 for the Sox to tie them at 96 wins. You can play this what if game all day and if the Sox lost the division by 2-3 games I’d agree with you. But they lost by 8.
This year has really been a Rorschach test, hasn't it?

If they sox win 3 more games against TB of those 13 you mention, that brings TB to 97 and the Sox 95. But they don't have to make up the entire 8 game difference all against the Rays ... If they win 3 there, then, they would have needed two more against other teams, to tie at 97. Given where they were on July 27 (2 games in first, second best record in the majors behind SF), getting to 97 wins was certainly very possible.

Damn, the COVID outbreak alone cost them a couple games.

Waiting for Schwarber and Sale (and Houck), banged up a bit, the team cratered between end of July and Mid August.Then there was a flurry when they joined and then the outbreak (it was probably the under-the-radar feat of the season that they played .500 ball through all the COVID absences. HERE, Cora deserves credit).

I don't see 92 wins as the best case scenario, from where they stood July 27. It's somewhere in the middle. Some regression to the mean was probable. But bad luck with injuries, COVID, some fatal managerial decisions (pulling Pivetta early at the front end of a doubleheader vs. Tor, and then doing the same with Houck a few weeks later), and a deadline deal that A. had to wait 3 weeks, and B. Added a bat but weakened the D (I LOVE Schwarber, mind you) created a pocket of losing, some of which could have been avoided.

Enough to have won the division? It ain't certain, but -MAYBE.
 

Apisith

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We're a good team. We have more talent now than we did at the beginning of the season (Sale, Houck, Schwarber). Those three are a big infusion of talent. We'll be competitive against the Rays, assuming we get through the wild card game. That's my hot take.
 

Niastri

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We're a good team. We have more talent now than we did at the beginning of the season (Sale, Houck, Schwarber). Those three are a big infusion of talent. We'll be competitive against the Rays, assuming we get through the wild card game. That's my hot take.
Speaking of hot takes, Schwarber hasn't hit 12 HR in 10 games for a while. I think he's due. He'll start with two tonight.
 

tims4wins

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This year has really been a Rorschach test, hasn't it?

If they sox win 3 more games against TB of those 13 you mention, that brings TB to 97 and the Sox 95. But they don't have to make up the entire 8 game difference all against the Rays ... If they win 3 there, then, they would have needed two more against other teams, to tie at 97. Given where they were on July 27 (2 games in first, second best record in the majors behind SF), getting to 97 wins was certainly very possible.

Damn, the COVID outbreak alone cost them a couple games.

Waiting for Schwarber and Sale (and Houck), banged up a bit, the team cratered between end of July and Mid August.Then there was a flurry when they joined and then the outbreak (it was probably the under-the-radar feat of the season that they played .500 ball through all the COVID absences. HERE, Cora deserves credit).

I don't see 92 wins as the best case scenario, from where they stood July 27. It's somewhere in the middle. Some regression to the mean was probable. But bad luck with injuries, COVID, some fatal managerial decisions (pulling Pivetta early at the front end of a doubleheader vs. Tor, and then doing the same with Houck a few weeks later), and a deadline deal that A. had to wait 3 weeks, and B. Added a bat but weakened the D (I LOVE Schwarber, mind you) created a pocket of losing, some of which could have been avoided.

Enough to have won the division? It ain't certain, but -MAYBE.
Right, I agree with this - maybe. I agree that 92 wins wasn't best case. I also don't think 100 wins was reasonable. Where they were on July 27, I think 95-98 wins was probably the upper case in wins, and as you note, it didn't all have to come against the Rays. So it's possible that an extra deadline acquisition would have been the difference. It's also possible that it still wouldn't have been enough to win the division and they'd be in the same place they are today - hosting the WC game.

So, it's all in the past now. Win tonight and it's borderline irrelevant (I say borderline because playing tonight obviously has some effect on the pitching rotation).

Edit: that said, if the Sox win tonight, I think the schedule lines up so they could pitch Sale in games 2 and 5, and Eovaldi in game 3, of the ALDS. That's not half bad.
 

BaseballJones

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Right, I agree with this - maybe. I agree that 92 wins wasn't best case. I also don't think 100 wins was reasonable. Where they were on July 27, I think 95-98 wins was probably the upper case in wins, and as you note, it didn't all have to come against the Rays. So it's possible that an extra deadline acquisition would have been the difference. It's also possible that it still wouldn't have been enough to win the division and they'd be in the same place they are today - hosting the WC game.

So, it's all in the past now. Win tonight and it's borderline irrelevant (I say borderline because playing tonight obviously has some effect on the pitching rotation).

Edit: that said, if the Sox win tonight, I think the schedule lines up so they could pitch Sale in games 2 and 5, and Eovaldi in game 3, of the ALDS. That's not half bad.
It's not half bad, so long as you get good Sale and not crap Sale, which at this point is about a 50/50 proposition.

But still...the Sox are in the playoffs, baby!!
 

joe dokes

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If they sox win 3 more games against TB of those 13 you mention, that brings TB to 97 and the Sox 95. But they don't have to make up the entire 8 game difference all against the Rays ... If they win 3 there, then, they would have needed two more against other teams, to tie at 97. Given where they were on July 27 (2 games in first, second best record in the majors behind SF), getting to 97 wins was certainly very possible.

I don't see 92 wins as the best case scenario, from where they stood July 27. It's somewhere in the middle. Some regression to the mean was probable. But bad luck with injuries, COVID, some fatal managerial decisions (pulling Pivetta early at the front end of a doubleheader vs. Tor, and then doing the same with Houck a few weeks later), and a deadline deal that A. had to wait 3 weeks, and B. Added a bat but weakened the D (I LOVE Schwarber, mind you) created a pocket of losing, some of which could have been avoided.

Enough to have won the division? It ain't certain, but -MAYBE.
Right, I agree with this - maybe. I agree that 92 wins wasn't best case. I also don't think 100 wins was reasonable. Where they were on July 27, I think 95-98 wins was probably the upper case in wins, and as you note, it didn't all have to come against the Rays. So it's possible that an extra deadline acquisition would have been the difference. It's also possible that it still wouldn't have been enough to win the division and they'd be in the same place they are today - hosting the WC game.
While I understand the "best case" analysis, I think it wrongly assumes that TB (for example) does not have a similar "best case" that *they* did not achieve and that would still leave the Sox similarly behind TB in the end.
 

Archer1979

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This year has really been a Rorschach test, hasn't it?

If they sox win 3 more games against TB of those 13 you mention, that brings TB to 97 and the Sox 95. But they don't have to make up the entire 8 game difference all against the Rays ... If they win 3 there, then, they would have needed two more against other teams, to tie at 97. Given where they were on July 27 (2 games in first, second best record in the majors behind SF), getting to 97 wins was certainly very possible.

Damn, the COVID outbreak alone cost them a couple games.

Waiting for Schwarber and Sale (and Houck), banged up a bit, the team cratered between end of July and Mid August.Then there was a flurry when they joined and then the outbreak (it was probably the under-the-radar feat of the season that they played .500 ball through all the COVID absences. HERE, Cora deserves credit).

I don't see 92 wins as the best case scenario, from where they stood July 27. It's somewhere in the middle. Some regression to the mean was probable. But bad luck with injuries, COVID, some fatal managerial decisions (pulling Pivetta early at the front end of a doubleheader vs. Tor, and then doing the same with Houck a few weeks later), and a deadline deal that A. had to wait 3 weeks, and B. Added a bat but weakened the D (I LOVE Schwarber, mind you) created a pocket of losing, some of which could have been avoided.

Enough to have won the division? It ain't certain, but -MAYBE.
This is definitely what if-casting, but if the Sox played .500 against NY as well, instead of 0 - 6 in their last six games head to head, they not only would have won the Division outright, NY would have been the odd team out in the WC race with Toronto and Tampa Bay playing today instead.
 

MuellerToldHisTale

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The Jays and Sox were 28-29 vs the three others.
The Yanks were 25-32.
I'm no math whiz, but is this possible/accurate? Does this mean TB just crushed the other 3?

If so, it just goes to show the impact that having a total punching bag (O's) in the division can have, and how critical it is to win those games.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I'm no math whiz, but is this possible/accurate? Does this mean TB just crushed the other 3?

If so, it just goes to show the impact that having a total punching bag (O's) in the division can have, and how critical it is to win those games.
Tampa was 18-1 against the O's. Sox were 13-6, Yankees 11-8, Jays 14-5.
 

ledsox

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I have been thinking about payback for ‘78. Like ‘04 was for ‘46 and ‘13 was for ‘67.
 

cantor44

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While I understand the "best case" analysis, I think it wrongly assumes that TB (for example) does not have a similar "best case" that *they* did not achieve and that would still leave the Sox similarly behind TB in the end.
Yes, that's astute. For Sox to have held the division, they would have had to have their best case, and TB's less than best case.