The Rafael Devers Extension Thread

SoxFanInPdx

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
3,246
Portland, OR
Pretty surprised to see someone mention Heyman in anything Red Sox related in here, much less from The Post. It comes off as a hit piece to try and ease the MFY fanbase about the potential departure of Judge.
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,276
Yet his free agency following the 2023 season is coming ever closer, ever more sharply into view. Particularly after conversations between Devers and the team about a long-term deal this spring never came close to an agreement.

According to a major league source familiar with the talks, the Red Sox identified Matt Olson’s eight-year, $168 million extension with Atlanta as a basis for discussions — citing the likelihood that Devers would spend much of the contract either at first base or designated hitter.

Devers aimed much higher, convinced in his ability to stay at third for the immediate future (an outlook that has been validated by his solid glove work this year) while making the case that his offense would make him immensely valuable even if he eventually moves to first or DH. The canyon-sized gap between the sides — Jeff Passan of ESPN reported it was in excess of $100 million — made clear that there was little common ground.
Still, they acknowledged that Devers was doing everything he could to defy those estimates, and that few expected Seager to get $325 million from the Rangers.

“It only takes one team,” noted one of the evaluators.

The fact that Nationals star Juan Soto — this generation’s Ted Williams — reportedly turned down a 15-year, $440 million proposal from Washington only strengthens Devers’s position. But what constitutes a $300 million player?

Zack Scott, founder and CEO of Four Rings Sports Solutions, was involved in multiple contract discussions of players seeking more than $300 million. As a Red Sox executive, he was part of the Mookie Betts discussions in the spring of 2019. Scott was the Mets’ general manager when New York signed shortstop Lindor to a 10-year, $341 million extension.

While he did not talk specifically about either negotiation, he identified a few checkboxes for megacontracts.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/07/18/sports/rafael-devers-red-sox-future/?event=event25

When the Sox talked with Betts in 2019, a host of long-term deals limited the team’s flexibility and the farm system had no regulars on the immediate horizon. Now, with only Trevor Story and Garrett Whitlock signed beyond 2023 (assuming that Xander Bogaerts opts out), the Sox don’t confront the same constraints.

Devers’s peers cited other factors in identifying $300 million players. Cole immediately identified durability. Since 2019, Devers ranks ninth in the big leagues in games played with 455. He plays hurt and he produces through injury.
More at the above link

Also a reminder this was from discussions this spring:
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
51,291
I know there are all kinds of agendas associated with discussions like this and who knows what is true but…even as a starting offer, the Manny Ramirez contract 20 years and many fewer steroids later is a bad look. It’s a blatantly unserious offer.

But who knows. A major league source could just as soon be an opposing FO source who wants to weaken the Sox.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,304
I know there are all kinds of agendas associated with discussions like this and who knows what is true but…even as a starting offer, the Manny Ramirez contract 20 years and many fewer steroids later is a bad look. It’s a blatantly unserious offer.

But who knows. A major league source could just as soon be an opposing FO source who wants to weaken the Sox.
Manny Ramirez was a much much better player when he signed than Devers was before this year. Before this year Matt Olson was also a better player than Devers, so if they really did see Devers as not having long at 3rd base then it seems like a pretty decent starting point.

Keep in mind, before this year Devers best season ever was a 133 ops+ with terrible defense.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
51,291
Manny Ramirez was a much much better player when he signed than Devers was before this year. Before this year Matt Olson was also a better player than Devers, so if they really did see Devers as not having long at 3rd base then it seems like a pretty decent starting point.

Keep in mind, before this year Devers best season ever was a 133 ops+ with terrible defense.
If I am a 3B who has never played so much as an out at 1B through 5 seasons, I consider it unserious to offer me a contract as if I am already a 1B.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
11,921
Hey, we don’t think you will be playing 3b much longer because you aren’t very good at it is probably technically true but not a great way to start negotiations. Olson is three years older than Devers and by all accounts, took less than market value. Not a great comp.

Things can change quickly, but doesn’t seem like the organization is in a great spot with its two best players, guys who have been here their entire careers. Not a great look.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,304
If I am a 3B who has never played so much as an out at 1B through 5 seasons, I consider it unserious to offer me a contract as if I am already a 1B.
Olson 2017-2021: 18.4 bwar
Devers 2017-2021: 10.7 bwar

That's without even factoring in that if Devers was a 1b his war would be even lower because of positional adjustments. So I don't see where the unserious part comes in when Olson was a much better player.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
11,921
Olson 2017-2021: 18.4 bwar
Devers 2017-2021: 10.7 bwar

That's without even factoring in that if Devers was a 1b his war would be even lower because of positional adjustments. So I don't see where the unserious part comes in when Olson was a much better player.
The obvious difference here is that those are Olson’s age 23-27 years compared to Devers 20-24.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,093
Hey, we don’t think you will be playing 3b much longer because you aren’t very good at it is probably technically true but not a great way to start negotiations. Olson is three years older than Devers and by all accounts, took less than market value. Not a great comp.

Things can change quickly, but doesn’t seem like the organization is in a great spot with its two best players, guys who have been here their entire careers. Not a great look.
We can argue relative value all we want but the simple reality is that 8/168 doesn’t even come close to getting Devers to agree to a contract extension 1 year before he hits FA. I’m not sure that’s an insultingly low offer but it’s an offer with a 0% chance of being accepted, especially given how he’s hit this year, so what’s the point?

If the Sox don’t see Devers as a 3B for very much longer, they should just trade him because he ain’t signing for Olson 1B money. Someone will go north of $200+ for him and I hope it’s us. He’s just scratched the surface of what he’s going to be, IMO.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,304
We can argue relative value all we want but the simple reality is that 8/168 doesn’t even come close to getting Devers to agree to a contract extension 1 year before he hits FA. I’m not sure that’s an insultingly low offer but it’s an offer with a 0% chance of being accepted, especially given how he’s hit this year, so what’s the point?

If the Sox don’t see Devers as a 3B for very much longer, they should just trade him because he ain’t signing for Olson 1B money. Someone will go north of $200+ for him and I hope it’s us. He’s just scratched the surface of what he’s going to be, IMO.
They offered it before how he's hit this year with 2 years before free agency. Obviously when they talk extension again this offseason it won't be 8-168.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,093
They offered it before how he's hit this year with 2 years before free agency. Obviously when they talk extension again this offseason it won't be 8-168.
Sorry, misread the timing of that offer. Agree that 8/168 was a reasonable place to start but still not one I would have expected him to accept or even seriously consider. Impossible to know what Devers’ acceptable amount would have been this spring. May not be materially different than how he currently values himself. But who knows. This will be an interesting situation to follow. If the Sox miss the playoffs and let X go and start 2023 in a tenuous spot with Devers, that won’t be a great look. But we’ll see what Chaim can do here.
 

Seels

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
4,948
NH
Olson 2017-2021: 18.4 bwar
Devers 2017-2021: 10.7 bwar

That's without even factoring in that if Devers was a 1b his war would be even lower because of positional adjustments. So I don't see where the unserious part comes in when Olson was a much better player.
fwar and bwar have very different numbers for fielding on both Devers and Olson. They're worth the exact amount of war from 2018-2021 on fangraphs. And honestly - I think 95% of neutral fans take Devers.

And yea -- that offer is a "we don't really intend on signing you long term" offer. Lester / Mookie redux. This team seems to always prefer the hypothetical or cost controlled player they don't have over the player they do.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,304
fwar and bwar have very different numbers for fielding on both Devers and Olson. They're worth the exact amount of war from 2018-2021 on fangraphs. And honestly - I think 95% of neutral fans take Devers.

And yea -- that offer is a "we don't really intend on signing you long term" offer. Lester / Mookie redux. This team seems to always prefer the hypothetical or cost controlled player they don't have over the player they do.
Or it's a "we want to see you have a superstar year before we pay you like a superstar" offer.

After Mookie turned down their offer which in the long run may have ended up making him more than the deal he eventually agreed to they signed 2 other guys to huge extensions.
 

mikcou

Member
SoSH Member
May 13, 2007
920
Boston
Or it's a "we want to see you have a superstar year before we pay you like a superstar" offer.

After Mookie turned down their offer which in the long run may have ended up making him more than the deal he eventually agreed to they signed 2 other guys to huge extensions.
What team signed who after Betts was traded? There havent been any large extensions made by the Sox in that time frame. Even if you meant to refer to Story as well, that is only one and I think its hard to qualify it as "huge".
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,298
deep inside Guido territory
Chris Gasper interviewed Mookie this week. This is what Mookie had to say w/r/t the Sox dealings in contract negotiations. This may ring true for Devers after what Speier reported.

“After being dealt to the Dodgers in February of 2020, Betts signed a 12-year, $365 million extension. There’s an assumption he gave LA a pandemic discount, especially because $115 million of his Dodger green is deferred, set for delivery Bobby Bonilla-style between 2033 and 2044.
I asked Mookie if he would’ve taken that contract to stay with the Sox. Anger management class sign-ups might be about to skyrocket in Massachusetts.

“Absolutely, I just didn’t get it,” said Betts without hesitation. “That’s the argument. I didn’t get it, so that’s why I am where I am.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/07/18/sports/la-mookie-betts-looms-cautionary-tale-what-future-holds-red-sox-their-unsigned-homegrown-stars/
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,304
What team signed who after Betts was traded? There havent been any large extensions made by the Sox in that time frame. Even if you meant to refer to Story as well, that is only one and I think its hard to qualify it as "huge".
They didn't extend X or Sale until after Betts had turned down their $300m extension offer which included buying out 2 arb years.
 

soxin6

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
7,028
Huntington Beach, CA
Chris Gasper interviewed Mookie this week. This is what Mookie had to say w/r/t the Sox dealings in contract negotiations. This may ring true for Devers after what Speier reported.

“After being dealt to the Dodgers in February of 2020, Betts signed a 12-year, $365 million extension. There’s an assumption he gave LA a pandemic discount, especially because $115 million of his Dodger green is deferred, set for delivery Bobby Bonilla-style between 2033 and 2044.
I asked Mookie if he would’ve taken that contract to stay with the Sox. Anger management class sign-ups might be about to skyrocket in Massachusetts.

“Absolutely, I just didn’t get it,” said Betts without hesitation. “That’s the argument. I didn’t get it, so that’s why I am where I am.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/07/18/sports/la-mookie-betts-looms-cautionary-tale-what-future-holds-red-sox-their-unsigned-homegrown-stars/
Forget the dollars, does anyone think that the Red Sox are willing to commit to a 12 year contract for anyone? Signing a 12 year contract can greatly limit the flexibility that the Red Sox seem to value right now. The reality is that the Dodgers owner doesn’t really care about money, so he is probably less worried about Mookie’s likely decline in the final third of that contract especially if Mookie helps the Dodgers win multiple championships.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,304
Chris Gasper interviewed Mookie this week. This is what Mookie had to say w/r/t the Sox dealings in contract negotiations. This may ring true for Devers after what Speier reported.

“After being dealt to the Dodgers in February of 2020, Betts signed a 12-year, $365 million extension. There’s an assumption he gave LA a pandemic discount, especially because $115 million of his Dodger green is deferred, set for delivery Bobby Bonilla-style between 2033 and 2044.
I asked Mookie if he would’ve taken that contract to stay with the Sox. Anger management class sign-ups might be about to skyrocket in Massachusetts.

“Absolutely, I just didn’t get it,” said Betts without hesitation. “That’s the argument. I didn’t get it, so that’s why I am where I am.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/07/18/sports/la-mookie-betts-looms-cautionary-tale-what-future-holds-red-sox-their-unsigned-homegrown-stars/
He should probably take an econ class then. With that much deferred, plus the state tax difference, plus the guarantee that he won't sign another meaningful contract after this vs the chance that he could have after the Sox offer, he absolutely left money on the table.
 

mikcou

Member
SoSH Member
May 13, 2007
920
Boston
They didn't extend X or Sale until after Betts had turned down their $300m extension offer which included buying out 2 arb years.
Ok, you're basing it off the pre-2019 season offer that was turned down , It wasnt particularly clear that was what you were referring to.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,093
Forget the dollars, does anyone think that the Red Sox are willing to commit to a 12 year contract for anyone? Signing a 12 year contract can greatly limit the flexibility that the Red Sox seem to value right now. The reality is that the Dodgers owner doesn’t really care about money, so he is probably less worried about Mookie’s likely decline in the final third of that contract especially if Mookie helps the Dodgers win multiple championships.
Not for a guy like Mookie in his late 20’s (at the time) but maybe for a younger star like Soto, Acuna, etc.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
51,291
How is a baseball FA negotiation even remotely comparable to any kind of real world negotiation?

If my employer offers an insultingly low raise, I don’t have 29 other companies who will be directly competing for my services with a very limited pool of other people who can do my job to choose from, or any kind of guarantee of employment should I reject their offer and quit. I am compelled to accept it as a starting point. A young all-star in his prime is not. His agent DEFINITELY is not.

At the very least it is a seed of doubt about whether or not the team wants him. We have seen these things play out before. Yes it’s all part of a dance. So why open by slapping your partner?
 
Last edited:

Sox Puppet

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2016
724
If you extrapolate Trevor Story's contract to 10 years, it would be for $233M. Even as a much superior fielder, Story has 1.9 WAR (Fangraphs) so far this year compared to Devers' 4.6. I just don't see any way Devers signs for fewer than 10 years, and the AAV should blow Story's out of the water. And that's not even taking into account Devers' status as the "carita" of the franchise, especially after our losing Mookie and (presumably) Xander.
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,276
Chris Gasper interviewed Mookie this week. This is what Mookie had to say w/r/t the Sox dealings in contract negotiations. This may ring true for Devers after what Speier reported.

“After being dealt to the Dodgers in February of 2020, Betts signed a 12-year, $365 million extension. There’s an assumption he gave LA a pandemic discount, especially because $115 million of his Dodger green is deferred, set for delivery Bobby Bonilla-style between 2033 and 2044.
I asked Mookie if he would’ve taken that contract to stay with the Sox. Anger management class sign-ups might be about to skyrocket in Massachusetts.

“Absolutely, I just didn’t get it,” said Betts without hesitation. “That’s the argument. I didn’t get it, so that’s why I am where I am.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/07/18/sports/la-mookie-betts-looms-cautionary-tale-what-future-holds-red-sox-their-unsigned-homegrown-stars/
Thats 100% bullshit and everyone knows it. And even redsox stats is calling betts out on that
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1549215962024402944

if there was no pandemic after the mookie trade there was 0% chance mookie would sign the contract he did
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,298
deep inside Guido territory
Forget the dollars, does anyone think that the Red Sox are willing to commit to a 12 year contract for anyone? Signing a 12 year contract can greatly limit the flexibility that the Red Sox seem to value right now. The reality is that the Dodgers owner doesn’t really care about money, so he is probably less worried about Mookie’s likely decline in the final third of that contract especially if Mookie helps the Dodgers win multiple championships.
Flexibility is great to have, but isn’t a young homegrown star like Devers someone you’d want to extend for to keep?
 

Seels

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
4,948
NH
What's the point of flexibility when our 1b and all of our outfield are opsing under .700, and the only guys who have FIP under 4 are Eovaldi and Whitlock, whose career high in starting was 21 games 4 years ago.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,304
What was 2019?
What is this year?
This year hadn't happened at the time of the negotiations so it isn't remotely relevant. Of course if he finishes out this year the way he started it's a superstar year.

Whether you consider 2019 to be superstar level really depends on which metric you used to judge his defense. He put up a 132 ops+, which isn't exactly superstar level when combined with bad defense. He put up roughly the same ops+ last year in a roughly 4 WAR season, which is nowhere near superstar.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
23,688
Miami (oh, Miami!)
Of course it doesn’t, but that reported number is so low that if I were Devers I’d question how serious they are in trying to keep me.
So, that prevents you from making an offer or something?

(IMO, most of this stuff is just PR posturing and self-serving horseshit intermediaries like agents have deep theories on to justify their own existence. Don't get wrapped up in it.)
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,304
Of course it doesn’t, but that reported number is so low that if I were Devers I’d question how serious they are in trying to keep me.
Devers side asking for 8-268+, based on the articles reference that they were 100+ apart, is an even less serious offer than you seem to think 8-168 was.
 

mikcou

Member
SoSH Member
May 13, 2007
920
Boston
Devers side asking for 8-268+, based on the articles reference that they were 100+ apart, is an even less serious offer than you seem to think 8-168 was.
WAs it reported anywhere that it was the same 8 years? Most of the rumors that were swirling around during the offseason were 10+ year deals so I think you're being a bit disingenuous by stating that this was the ask.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
11,921
Devers side asking for 8-268+, based on the articles reference that they were 100+ apart, is an even less serious offer than you seem to think 8-168 was.
How so? Seager got 10/325. Machado got 10/300. Rendon got 7/245. Cano got 10/240. Arenado got 8/260. Lindor got 10/341. All those guys were older than Devers- it’s rare that a guy that young hits FA.

It was always going to be an 8-12 year deal with opt outs at $30m or more per year. Do you really think he can’t get that from someone?

If he’s willing to accept an 8 year, $240m deal without player opt outs, I think that’s fairly reasonable as far as these things go (although I doubt he is, why would he want to be a free agent again at like 34 or 35?) But you aren’t getting him at $21M aav, or $10M less per year than the team gave David Price five years ago.
 

sezwho

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
1,951
Isle of Plum
Of course it doesn’t, but that reported number is so low that if I were Devers I’d question how serious they are in trying to keep me.
It’s also a tool the agent can use to drive a wedge between the player and the team. I suspect the 1/30 extension to X was leaked to do exactly this.

A home team discount leaves commission on the table and fails to generate agents headlines and this more clients.

Yes, I acknowledge the agent works for the player on paper.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,304
How so? Seager got 10/325. Machado for 10/300. Rendon for 7/245. Cano got 10/240. Arenado got 8/260. Lindor got 10/341. All those guys were older than Devers- it’s rare that a guy that young hits FA.

It was always going to be an 8-12 year deal with opt outs at $30m or more per year. Do you really think he can’t get that from someone?

If he’s willing to accept an 8 year, $240m deal without player opt outs, I think that’s fairly reasonable as far as these things go. But you aren’t getting him at $21M, or $10M less per year than the team gave David Price five years ago.
All of those guys were much better players than 2021 Devers was. Also most didn't include any arb years at all and only 1 included a single arb year.

Devers is likely to make around 30m between his last 2 arb years if he plays them out. That's a massive value that you need to factor in when considering any extension.
 

OCD SS

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member

jose melendez

Earl of Acie
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 23, 2003
30,972
Geneva, Switzerland
In this age of people getting 10, 12, 15 year deals, I absolutely love a deal--even if it's as a 1B or DH that gets us him until he's 33 at around $30 million. You buy his prime and nothing more. Can stuff go to shit? Sure. But this is a good deal.