The Price Sweepstakes

[VORP Speed]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/sources--mariners--dodgers--angels-amongst-possible-trade-destinations-for-rays--david-price-013232956.html
 
This was linked in the rumors thread, but since a Price trade is likely to be the splashiest deal of the offseason, it feels like it's coming shortly, and, frankly, because it's of the most interest to me, I figured it was worth its own thread.
 
I love the idea of the Mariners signing Cano and then becoming super horny for Price. Friedman must be salivating at the prospect of a desperate Jack Z having just spent 250m and being on GFIN tilt as he looks to add Price to make the best 1-2-3 in the league. Fox in the henhouse. However, I found the following quote very interesting: 
 
"Rival officials told Yahoo Sports the Rays aren't necessarily inclined to go strictly for a package of young players, either. Were a team to offer an established major league player with a team-friendly contract as the headliner, the Rays have indicated they would consider that sort of a deal as well." 
 
To me, this can mean only one thing: PUIG. If the Rays can pry PUIG plus prospects from LA and I get to start a Tampa Bay of Puigs thread, 2014 will be a very good year indeed.
 
 

 

[Yaz4Ever]

I can't see LA giving up Puig plus for one year of Price and the right to negotiate with him for a year.

 

[VORP Speed]

2 years of control left on Price, and presumably the Dodgers would lock him up long-term. Given how they are spending is there any reason to think they wouldn't easily be able to hash out an extension, either as a condition to closing the trade or afterwards?

 

[SaveBooFerriss]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/sources--mariners--dodgers--angels-amongst-possible-trade-destinations-for-rays--david-price-013232956.html
 
This was linked in the rumors thread, but since a Price trade is likely to be the splashiest deal of the offseason, it feels like it's coming shortly, and, frankly, because it's of the most interest to me, I figured it was worth its own thread.
 
I love the idea of the Mariners signing Cano and then becoming super horny for Price. Friedman must be salivating at the prospect of a desperate Jack Z having just spent 250m and being on GFIN tilt as he looks to add Price to make the best 1-2-3 in the league. Fox in the henhouse. However, I found the following quote very interesting: 
 
"Rival officials told Yahoo Sports the Rays aren't necessarily inclined to go strictly for a package of young players, either. Were a team to offer an established major league player with a team-friendly contract as the headliner, the Rays have indicated they would consider that sort of a deal as well." 
 
 
 
 

 
Hello John Lackey!

 

[inJacobyWeTrust]

Well, the Mariners have Nick Franklin and Brad Miller and one of them--presumably Franklin--will be forced out of a spot. Not exactly an "established Major League player" but he's got pop in his bat and is 22, under team control until 2020 (not arb eligible until 2017).
 
They also have some cheap power arms in the bullpen (Farquhar, Wilhelmsen, Furbush) and a decent enough farm system such that I think they could put together a package that would be attractive to the Rays without having to give up Taijuan Walker.

 

[trekfan55]

 
Hello John Lackey!

 
I don't see that happening.  Neither do I see the Dodgers trading Puig.  He was a catalyst to them becoming the hottest team in baseball, and his entertainment value alone helps sells seats.  However, a subsidized Kemp may do the job.
 
At the end of the day, I think they'll get prospects, as usual.  And Feldman is the master at fleecing other teams.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/sources--mariners--dodgers--angels-amongst-possible-trade-destinations-for-rays--david-price-013232956.html
 
This was linked in the rumors thread, but since a Price trade is likely to be the splashiest deal of the offseason, it feels like it's coming shortly, and, frankly, because it's of the most interest to me, I figured it was worth its own thread.
 
I love the idea of the Mariners signing Cano and then becoming super horny for Price. Friedman must be salivating at the prospect of a desperate Jack Z having just spent 250m and being on GFIN tilt as he looks to add Price to make the best 1-2-3 in the league. Fox in the henhouse. However, I found the following quote very interesting: 
 
"Rival officials told Yahoo Sports the Rays aren't necessarily inclined to go strictly for a package of young players, either. Were a team to offer an established major league player with a team-friendly contract as the headliner, the Rays have indicated they would consider that sort of a deal as well." 
 
To me, this can mean only one thing: PUIG. If the Rays can pry PUIG plus prospects from LA and I get to start a Tampa Bay of Puigs thread, 2014 will be a very good year indeed.
 
 

 
Joey Bats + B Prospect for Price 

 

[RedOctober3829]

The Mariners will have to give up Wagner in order to get Price and I think they will do it.  With the money they spent on Cano, they have to be all in.  Get Price and sign one of the big OFs left(Choo, Beltran, Cruz).

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Giving up Walker for Price is lunacy, but it could happen.

I still think Texas is a real contender. They have the money, they have the prospects (even without including Profar in a deal), and they have the need.

 

[VORP Speed]

I think it's a given at this point that the Mariners will be dangling Walker plus one of their young middle infielders plus some other prospects. They just spent 240m!! on Cano, you think they're going to quibble about prospects, have a losing year with a gold plated anvil around their necks and all get fired? The question is can the Rays use this to pry away Profar from Texas or Puig from LA or somebody else's #1 stud prospect. Given the bonkers money getting tossed around this winter and the relative lack of big-time free agents coming onto the market in the next year or two, if you think the Rays are going to get less for David Price than they got for James Shields, then you're freakin' nuts. They have 2 years of control left, if they don't trade him this winter, they can always do it next year, but  given the frothy market, I'd guess it will happen soon.

 

[Drek717]

I think it's a given at this point that the Mariners will be dangling Walker plus one of their young middle infielders plus some other prospects. They just spent 240m!! on Cano, you think they're going to quibble about prospects, have a losing year with a gold plated anvil around their necks and all get fired? The question is can the Rays use this to pry away Profar from Texas or Puig from LA or somebody else's #1 stud prospect. Given the bonkers money getting tossed around this winter and the relative lack of big-time free agents coming onto the market in the next year or two, if you think the Rays are going to get less for David Price than they got for James Shields, then you're freakin' nuts. They have 2 years of control left, if they don't trade him this winter, they can always do it next year, but  given the frothy market, I'd guess it will happen soon.

Walker isn't a prospect though.  Why trade him for Price when they already have Felix Hernandez and Iwakuma as the 1/2 tandem at the top of the staff?  Walker is the next ace in line and likely would already be a damn good #3 starter.
 
They need to spend money on offense now that they've got Cano, not another front line starter.  Bats are their need.  I could see them spend the money to get one of Hart/Napoli (the later moreso now that their first unprotected pick is gone and their first rounder is still protected) and Choo or take on Ethier's deal if L.A. would subsidize it enough.
 
They could also move either Miller or Franklin to a SS/2B needy team and get a nice reward, or keep them and have good organizational depth on the left side of the infield.  If Mike Zunino's K rate and BABIP bounce back to his previous mL norms (horrible both ML and mL last year) he's a good catcher for them as well.
 
It's all about who else they can add to the lineup now, the idea that they'd panic to get Price seems unlikely in a post-Cano signing world.

 

[VORP Speed]

Walker isn't a prospect though.  

 
He's pitched 15 major league innings. 

 

[Drek717]

 
He's pitched 15 major league innings. 

And 141 in the minors for a 156 inning workload last season.  He's almost certainly breaking camp in a ML rotation no matter what next spring.  He's no more a prospect than Bogaerts.  They're the present.
 
What is the value in giving up Walker and other pieces for Price?  Certainty?  But certainty with a nice dollar value attached, and for a team that already has certainty at the top two starting roles.  The salary gap between price and Walker could better be spent on positional players and there is a very real chance that there won't be a production gap between the two of them come the end of 2014.  The smart move for Seattle is to get some solid veterans on short money deals to round out their rotation and let Walker be their next low cost ace that makes Robinson Cano's monster deal palatable.

 

[VORP Speed]

And 141 in the minors for a 156 inning workload last season.  He's almost certainly breaking camp in a ML rotation no matter what next spring.  He's no more a prospect than Bogaerts.  They're the present.
 
What is the value in giving up Walker and other pieces for Price?  Certainty?  But certainty with a nice dollar value attached, and for a team that already has certainty at the top two starting roles.  The salary gap between price and Walker could better be spent on positional players and there is a very real chance that there won't be a production gap between the two of them come the end of 2014.  The smart move for Seattle is to get some solid veterans on short money deals to round out their rotation and let Walker be their next low cost ace that makes Robinson Cano's monster deal palatable.

 
Yes, certainty. A guy who has 15 big league innings under his belt as a Sept call-up is still a prospect. Would you bet your job on him? Seattle has money to spend, but there is no front-line pitching available for money right now. Price is available for your top prospect. You can use your money to buy some other bats. It's nice in a vacuum to say that you should remain disciplined and find wins all over the diamond and add mid-tier veterans, but that's not how the real world works. Certainty carries a premium. Decision makers have windows in which they can make things happen. What does Jack Z care about the future if he spends a boatload of $$$ and the team still loses? Will he care when he's out of a plum job that holding onto Walker was the right call for the long-term health of the franchise? 
 
Look, I'm not saying Seattle should do it, I'm saying I think they will do it, or at least try. If all GMs were rational, the Rays would never make a trade. Yet year after year they prey on the weaknesses, irrationality and short-term thinking of other teams front offices. Friedman has a job for life, there is no fanbase/media pressure, Sternberg is committed to living within his means, and the Rays are always in survival mode with minimal financial resources and an absolute commitment to long-term maximization of all their assets. Some see that as a weakness, but it lets them be long term thinkers and patient predators. There's always some other team where somebody needs to save their job or the owner needs to put butts in the seats or they're convinced this is their year. 

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Yes, certainty. A guy who has 15 big league innings under his belt as a Sept call-up is still a prospect. Would you bet your job on him? Seattle has money to spend, but there is no front-line pitching available for money right now. Price is available for your top prospect. You can use your money to buy some other bats. It's nice in a vacuum to say that you should remain disciplined and find wins all over the diamond and add mid-tier veterans, but that's not how the real world works. Certainty carries a premium. Decision makers have windows in which they can make things happen. What does Jack Z care about the future if he spends a boatload of $$$ and the team still loses? Will he care when he's out of a plum job that holding onto Walker was the right call for the long-term health of the franchise? 
 
Look, I'm not saying Seattle should do it, I'm saying I think they will do it, or at least try. If all GMs were rational, the Rays would never make a trade. Yet year after year they prey on the weaknesses, irrationality and short-term thinking of other teams front offices. Friedman has a job for life, there is no fanbase/media pressure, Sternberg is committed to living within his means, and the Rays are always in survival mode with minimal financial resources and an absolute commitment to long-term maximization of all their assets. Some see that as a weakness, but it lets them be long term thinkers and patient predators. There's always some other team where somebody needs to save their job or the owner needs to put butts in the seats or they're convinced this is their year.

Jack Z may indeed do something stupid (or something else stupid, depending what you think of the Cano deal) but you're ignoring the pitching versus hitting dynamic here. What they need is hitting, not pitching, and Jack Z has said over and over again that he wants to add at last two bats, if not more.

I'm not saying its impossible or that the rumors of their interest have no credence - where there's smoke there's probably at least some fire - but there is a lot of evidence pointing in other directions too. According to Twitter, the Mariners are "in on" Napoli, "in on" Kemp, "in on" Choo, etc.

 

[VORP Speed]

Jack Z may indeed do something stupid (or something else stupid, depending what you think of the Cano deal) but you're ignoring the pitching versus hitting dynamic here. What they need is hitting, not pitching, and Jack Z has said over and over again that he wants to add at last two bats, if not more.

I'm not saying its impossible or that the rumors of their interest have no credence - where there's smoke there's probably at least some fire - but there is a lot of evidence pointing in other directions too. According to Twitter, the Mariners are "in on" Napoli, "in on" Kemp, "in on" Choo, etc.

 
Why is it pitching OR hitting? What they need is to not look like idiots for laying out a quarter of a billion dollars for Cano and still losing. They need wins. Price helps that cause. So do hitters. You can buy hitters and I think they will. Adding Price can be done at the cost of a top-rated pitching prospect, presumably. I just think people are miscalculating how they will be assessing the future value of that prospect vs the benefit of adding Price now and having a stacked rotation to go along with Cano plus whatever hitters they buy. When you decide to go for it, you go for it. I get the sense they are going for it.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Price is great, but I agree that Seattle would be better served signing someone like Garza to a 4 year deal and keeping Walker.  Felix, Iwakuma, Garza, Walker is a fine, playoff-caliber rotation.  And then, yes, get one more bat, either by signing Nap or Beltran or by trading the now-blocked Franklin.

 

[VORP Speed]

Lots of buzz about the Dodgers continuing to push hard for Price. While it's only in my personal hot stove fantasyland that they get Puig, I don't think the Corey Seager/Joc Pederson combo that's being floated about gets it done. It's hard to see the Rays letting Price go without getting someone in return who could make an impact at the MLB level by 2015, and see at least some MLB action in 2014. Matt Kemp seems out of the Rays stratosphere, but I wonder how much of that contract LA would eat to get Price and bring down the prospect price. You have to imagine that's at least being discussed. The one thing the Dodgers have plenty of is money, so sending a heavily subsidized Kemp to TB is about the closest they'll get to just outright buying a star player for cash from another team. The Rays have always been good at predicting what players will bounce back from injury/downturns, but making Kemp a centerpiece for Price would be making a huge bet on that ability.

 

[MakMan44]

taijuan walker looks untouchable, but mariners will consider trading top positional prospects for price, maybe even zunino

 
https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/410513985415290881

 

[MakMan44]

 
https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/410513985415290881

Just saw David Price's agent, Bo McKinnis, in lobby. Asked if Price would consider extension with #Mariners. Said no. MORE

 
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/410801489557602304

 

[mauf]

The "more" in that Rosenthal tweet is that Price would consider extensions with other teams -- just not the Mariners.
 
A surprisingly frank statement by McKinnis, and one that seems to quash any possibility of Price landing in Seattle.

 

[MakMan44]

The "more" in that Rosenthal tweet is that Price would consider extensions with other teams -- just not the Mariners.
 
A surprisingly frank statement by McKinnis, and one that seems to quash any possibility of Price landing in Seattle.

Sorry, I didn't post that next part because I didn't think it was interesting as he didn't say which teams Price would consider an extension with. 

 

[VORP Speed]

Hopefully that's just a negotiating ploy to squeeze stupid money of the Mariners for the extension. If he really means it, definitely makes it unlikely for Rays to get an acceptable return/Walker from SEA.
Everyone smells stupidity/desperation in the water in Seattle, though, so it wouldn't be too shocking if it's a bluff to drive up the price on Price.

 

[Pedro 4 99MVP]

I am surprised that this information from Price's agent has not received more attention. By saying his client won't sign long term in Seattle, he has possibly eliminated the Rays best chance to get a major return. Who is the favorite now, and how great of a return can the Rays get? I am taking the angle that the Rays will want MLB ready talent plus a lottery ticket or 2. Let's focus on just the MLB ready talent:

I would hope Seattle isn't dumb enough to trade Walker and Franklin knowing Price doesn't want to be there long term.
The Dodgers could offer Pederson and Seager but if I am Friedman I want more.
The Rangers have to be considered a possibility, but will they package Profar with a young pitcher like Scheppers or Perez? Seems unlikely now that Kinsler has already been traded.
Braves have been mentioned, but do they have the money to add Price and extend him?
The Diamondbacks say they aren't trading Archie Bradley, but this is Kevin Towers so maybe this is the Rays best chance to strike gold.
After thinking this through, if I was Andrew Friedman, I would have Kevin Towers on speed dial.

 

[MakMan44]

Friedman probably wants a pitching prospect. I imagine Pederson, Seager and Lee (or Urias) should get it done.
 
If I'm the Dodgers though, I wouldn't pull the trigger on that. Just what I think would get the deal done. 

 

[jimbobim]

If he wants a pitching prospect or pitching prospects the clubs he should have on speed dial are the Cardinals and the Red Sox. Price to either one of those teams for the next 2 years and the probable extension would be very interesting. Also they  have more advanced depth to their pitching prospects. Cardinals probably would never trade Wacha or Carlos Martinez but the other guys maybe. 
 
The Red Sox could probably easily build a deal around WMB(go to first) Owens(He COULD be a dominant lefty after one more year in the minors) and one of their other triple a starters(Renaudo/Webster/Barnes). Price Lester Buch Doubrount (Trade one of Lackey/ Peavy) for the 5th role and Demp in the pen. Highly unlikely but would be awesome. 

 

[Pedro 4 99MVP]

Red Sox have the prospects but Price isn't going to be traded within the division. Plus, even if the Red Sox made a strong offer centered around Owens and WMB, the Rays would still insist on X.
 
Cardinals, on the other hand, seems like a real possibility.  They essentially didn't replace Beltran, so there should be money available (although they did spend money on Peralta). They have plenty of young, power arms. How many do the Cardinals make unavailable? Wacha should be untouchable, but what about Rosenthal, Martinez, Kelly?

 

[MakMan44]

Why would either team want Price though? The Sox are more likely to make a push but, as you said, he won't get traded in the division. As for the Cards, they already have a really rotation, filled with young guys. Why replace ANY of them with Price when he's likely going to cost triple the salary?

 

[jimbobim]

The Blue Jays are constantly mentioned as a contender I really think he'll trade Price to the highest bidder.