The Premier League At The New Year/Transfer Window

[OCST]

Since I'd rather screw around than do work.

Here are my hot takez. Please add yours, with lively discussion as appropriate.

Order is PREDICTED table ranking.


No Brexit For Us: We Love Europe!

Chelsea: A stunning run of form. "Since switching to a back three when 3-0 down to Arsenal at halftime on Sept. 24, Chelsea has scored 32 times, conceded four goals, and won a record-equalling 13 matches. Right now, every hiccup from Chelsea's title rivals is getting punished by the Blues." http://www.thescore.com/epl/news/1198393-premier-league-midseason-awards-chelsea-top-of-class-at-half-time

Costa has been a (relatively) model citizen. No weaknesses. Sure to cool down somewhat - can't be any hotter - but notwithstanding yesterday's defeat, the class of the PL this year. Now: 1 Predicted Finish: 1

Spurs: A statement win yesterday. Stingy defensively. Catching fire in the attack with excellent form from Eriksen and Alli. Still not convinced that they have figured out their optimal lineup - not sure where Son and Sissoko fit. Given their strength in the back, I think they surpass Liverpool. Now: 3 Predicted Finish: 2

Liverpool: Great depth in the midfield; always someone ready to step up. Quality wins at Chelsea and at Arsenal. Terrible loss at Bournemouth shows some weakness defensively, although according to our resident Scousers, Karius was the problem. Could challenge for the top spot, but it says here that they can't catch Chelsea and won't hold off Spurs. Now: 2 Predicted Finish: 3

Man U: Bad losses to Hull, Watford, and Chelsea, but seem to have figured it out. Too reliant on ZLATAN! perhaps but his underlying stats are phenomenal and he is playing like a man ten years younger. Back four and De Gea are solid. Still have not optimized the deployment of chess pieces Rashford, Mktharian, Pogba, and Marital, but run of form suggests that it's gelling. Now: 6 Predicted Finish: 4

Can We Please Go To Sofia And Istanbul in February? Please??? Europe, Sorta: Europa

Arsenal: Another recent Bournemouth victim - nice comeback but should never have been down 3-0. Nice win over pre-streak Chelsea but other than that nothing remarkable in terms of signature victories. Giroud seems to be rounding into form. Plenty of quality here with Ozil, Alexis, etc. Could finish higher if they execute to potential, but our Gunners supporters seem to think that Wenger's eventually gonna Wenger. Giving Man U the nod for the final spot in the top four by a nose. Now: 5 Predicted Finish: 5

How Much Is That Trophy In the Window? First Man Out

Manchester City: I'm down on City. Aguero is this season's problem child. Too reliant on Aguero and De Bruyne, who is streaky. Rotation unsettled. Not sold on the defense. Keeper is an adventure. Champions League tests depth. Lots of quality here but less than the sum of its parts. City is first man out of Europe. Now: 4 Predicted Finish: 6

So Close, And Yet So Far: Pretenders

West Brom: Tony Pulis! No superstars, but solid all the way around. Able to actually score goals. Tough, organized, hard-working, with the occasional flash of quality from Rondon and Phillips. The quintessential "wouldn't want to play them if we absolutely needed the three points" side. Don't think they have the horsepower to break into the European spots, but they will be top of mid-table. Now: 8 Predicted Finish: 7

Everton: My Toffees. As usual, infuriatingly inconsistent. The good news is that Koeman has realized that the beloved old guard has lost a step and needs to be phased out, especially Barry and Jagielka. Barkley remains an enigma. Lukaku too often sulks without service. Midfield linkup with attack is poor. Rumors of vast spend in the transfer window. Enough talent to nip at fourth or fifth if they catch lightning in the bottle with someone who can galvanize the attack. It says here they finish about where they are, which is their usual bailiwick. Now: 7 Predicted Finish: 8

Bournemouth: Eddie Howe has to be neck and neck with Pulis for Manager of the year. Some great results against the giants, as noted. Some good pieces in the back with Boruc, King, Ake, and Smith. If Callum Wilson can recapture his form of early last season, it would help. A little thin and they may have peaked, but I'm putting them here due to the deficiencies of the teams below them. Now: 9 Predicted Finish: 9

West Ham: It's really attrition now, where teams get ranked just because the teams below them suck worse. Should be higher with the likes of Payet and Antonio. I blame it on the new stadium. They ripped the soul out of this club. Seemed to have righted the ship somewhat recently before two straight losses, although I suppose you can blame the festive period. Still, they have more upside than their peers. Now: 13 Predicted Finish: 10

Welcome to Mediocrityville, Population You: Top of the Bottom Half

Leicester: Icarus plummets. May have effectively tanked the PL season so as to focus on CL. Still, enough quality here to move up in the crowded pack at mid-table. Have to think they'll improve relative to their peers. Now: 15 Predicted Finish: 11

Stoke: Some decent players. Here by default. I don't care about Stoke enough to write more about them and neither do you. Now: 11 Predicted Finish: 12

Southampton: Poor run of form lately. van Dijk out and rumored to be a transfer target. Seem to have more downside than up. Now: 10 Predicted Finish: 13

Crystal Palace: Have to figure that Sam will right the ship somewhat. Better players than anyone below them. Losing Zaha to ACN hurts. Bentenke just hurt his shoulder. Can't defend. Now: 17 Predicted Finish: 14

Burnley: Can occasionally hang with the big boys if Heaton stands on his head. Some untapped potential in attack with Vokes and Gray. Keane is good and Mee too. May be picked clean at the window. Good enough to stay clear of the drop but not better than that. Now: 12 Predicted Finish: 15

Highway To The Danger Zone

Middlesborough: The Flying Guzans are boring but not catastrophically bad. Can occasionally put up a fight. Stuani and Negredo occasionally impersonate competent strikers. Now: 16 Predicted Finish: 16

Sunderland: Every year the Black Cats flirt with the drop and every year they live up to their namesake. This year will be no different, unless another club poaches Defoe in the window. Now: 18 Predicted Finish: 17

I'm Going Down

Watford: Ighalo and Deeney were good last year, but they aren't this year. Poor run of form. Don't do anything particularly well. Now: 14 Predicted Finish: 18

Swansea: Nice job, American Bob. Now: 19 Predicted Finish: 19

Hull: Don't call it a dumpster fire; that's insulting to dumpsters. Someone should liberate Snodgrass. Would struggle for mid-table in the Championship, which is where they're headed. Now: 20 Predicted Finish: 20

Have at it.

Who do I bill this to?

 

[Luis Taint]

Chelsea
Arsenal(winner of the FA Cup)
City
ManU
Spurs

 

[Zomp]

The top 6 is too close to call, IMO. Their record was absurd over the Christmas period.

Slight nitpick: I think Jose has found how to optimize all of the players at his disposal. He's now playing a 4-3-3 and Carrick sitting in front of the defense is allowing Pogba to have free reign in attack and its showing. He had the highest average WhoScored rating of anyone in the Premier League in December. Mikhitaryan and Martial are probably first choice wingers right now with Rashford as the impact sub but that can change by the game. He's definitely found a system that works and it shows with 6 wins in a row.

 

[Dummy Hoy]

Where do you think United will finish? Top-4?

I think you're right about Mou turning things around and the team really rounding into form...not the most impressive run of 6 teams, but 18 from 6 is truth.

Hull and Swansea go down, would like to wait until transfer window is done to pick the 3rd team.

Tough to see Chelsea dropping, but there's a long way to go. I'll say Spurs/'pool/'arse take the next four, but this would be easier to predict after 1/31. It would be crazy if neither Manchester team got a CL spot...not sure how I could predict that.

Of course this was my 4 predictions before the season:
1. Hull comes in last. By a margin. I guess I get credit for this (easy) pick, although I thought they'd be worse.
2. Spurs finishes ahead of Arsenal. Could happen.
3. Zlatan isn't very good in the PL, but everyone will say that he is. I'm an idiot.
4. And for a reach- West Ham finishes in a European spot. Woof, even worse than my Zlatan slander.

I clearly know next to nothing about the PL.

 

[Zomp]

I'm honestly not sure. The only certain top 4 team, IMO, is Chelsea. Not the most impressive run of teams no, but you can only beat who they put in front of you. If they happen to finish 5th or 6th, baring a drastic loss of form, it will be really hard to complain this year as all of the top 6 are very competitive.

More important than where they finish this year is Mourinho winning the fans over and the youngsters playing well. Ever since SAF retired Top 4 was never a given but I don't think it will ever be a given again because of how strong the other teams are. I'm just happy Pogba is playing up to his abilities and Zlatan is silencing the doubters.

The core group of players are young though, so the future looks good. Rashford is 19, Martial 21, Shaw 21, Bailly 22, Pogba 23, Phil Jones 24, Lingaard (who I don't rate that highly) 24. Thats a very good group of young players who could potentially play for years to come. For all of the talk about Mourinho not playing youth, all of the players I've listed (Shaw aside due to injury) are getting a lot of games, even if its by accident (in Jones' case).

 

[Dummy Hoy]

I'm honestly not sure. The only certain top 4 team, IMO, is Chelsea. Not the most impressive run of teams no, but you can only beat who they put in front of you. If they happen to finish 5th or 6th, baring a drastic loss of form, it will be really hard to complain this year as all of the top 6 are very competitive.

More important than where they finish this year is Mourinho winning the fans over and the youngsters playing well. Ever since SAF retired Top 4 was never a given but I don't think it will ever be a given again because of how strong the other teams are. I'm just happy Pogba is playing up to his abilities and Zlatan is silencing the doubters.

The core group of players are young though, so the future looks good. Rashford is 19, Martial 21, Shaw 21, Bailly 22, Pogba 23, Phil Jones 24, Lingaard (who I don't rate that highly) 24. Thats a very good group of young players who could potentially play for years to come. For all of the talk about Mourinho not playing youth, all of the players I've listed (Shaw aside due to injury) are getting a lot of games, even if its by accident (in Jones' case).

I think this (the bolded) is right.

And I think you're right about the future looking good. I love Mou, but it looks like he's the only one that could really fuck it up at this point.

 

[teddykgb]

Like any team that goes on a run, both Chelsea and United have benefit from a fair bit of "luck". That doesn't invalidate or nullify the results, of course, but it speaks to the projectability of the results on a go forward basis. If Luiz is red carded versus City Chelsea almost certainly lose and even if the rest of their results hold after a major loss to a title rival City sits just one point behind them. United have had Rojo avoiding red and getting offside goals, etc. Again, this isn't a complaint, this stuff is supposed to even out, but when you use the outcomes over a period where one team catches a few breaks to project them out then I think you're chasing a bit of a fool's errand.

I agree, however, that the Top 6 is probably very fluid and will likely depend largely on these types of decisions and injuries over the 2nd half. There's not enough separating these teams, bar maybe Chelsea's current points lead on the pack, to think that it won't be really fine margins going forward. In that vein, I think City and Arsenal are being underestimated quite a bit right now due to what is probably more luck variance (injury and ref) than anything that is more of a fundamental flaw.

I don't think it's particularly hard to envision a Diego Costa injury derailing Chelsea's train. I think Liverpool have already suffered a fair number of injuries, including Coutinho which is a massive loss for them, but they're sitting 2nd today. The only question for them is whether they can Geigenpress through the end of the season or whether the injuries will pile up later in the year.

I suppose if i had to bet today i'd probably pick the current top 4 minus Liverpool and subbing in Arsenal. I think Liverpool are actually quite good but I just don't see the depth of squad there to handle the injuries that I think will continue to pile up. But City are probably the biggest wildcard in the top 6 in that they've shown the ability to absolutely snuff out any of the other contenders, so it's really a matter of whether they can patch together enough of a defense to make it so the 1 or 2 shots they're giving up don't become goals. If they don't, then 6th is probably the most likely outcome. I think United have clawed back to respectability but the GD they have says they're in a different class to the rest and I think they've rode schedule and luck a bit recently to maybe be a bit overvalued. Arsenal fans lamentation aside, I think they probably have the deepest squad in the league and while that doesn't always allow them to beat the very best it does allow them to deal with all of the injuries that pile up over the course of a season. They've played a ton of matches without Cazorla who often turns matches for them.

 

[SoxFanInCali]

Some teams will lose players to the ACN (Mane missing for Liverpool will hurt). There will no doubt be some transfers in and out this month. Liverpool and Chelsea will have no European games while the rest of the top 6 will. Liverpool and United have 2-legged EFL Cup semifinals coming up plus possibly a Wembley final. We also have no idea how far anyone will go in the FA Cup. The margins of error are ridiculously small, a loss and a draw back-to-back could drop a team from 2nd to 6th.

Ultimately I think Chelsea grind their way to the title, the rest is a toss-up. I'll go with Liverpool doing enough against the rest of the top 6 to offset the occasional Bournemouth-type defensive breakdown, City coming together under Pep's system as the season goes on, and Spurs finally conquering their demons and edging out Arsenal.