The premature re-signing Lester thread

[67WasBest]

Yeah, wasn't he hours in front of the Hanley news before it started to trickle out from the big names?

I've been here almost full time reading all these posts and my timeline recall is he broke it, Heyman called him, and Merloni called him out then exchanged private messages with him.
 
In the 2003 offseason, on the Red Sox forum, someone (I believe it was the Dentist) picked me out to leak info.  He gave me Foulke's deal, and details of the ongoing ARod negotiations, so I republished them.  When the ARod deal broke apart it became insufferable with the snark that followed.  This whole situation feels a lot like that time and I know firsthand the Sox organization has done this previously.

 

[Lynchie]

 
And claim no one but him even knew they were talking contract

Haha!
Twitter pissing matches, let them kill each other so long as we get good intel.

 

[SoxScout]

Only thing I can tell you is that Merloni has checked in with him, kid has revealed his sources to Merloni, who has confirmed they exist.

That's the most I know. Take it for what it's worth

 
Well you can't tell us much then because this is completely false.
 
http://ask.fm/mlb_nl_al/answer/122079143844
 
When being good at finding stuff on twitter and guessing and luck and taking it too far combines = perfect storm.

 

[canderson]

If the kid tweets Lester's going to Theo's house for Tgving dinner, I'll be worried.

 

[E5 Yaz]

 
When being good at twitter and guessing and luck and taking it too far combines = perfect storm.

 
And being 14 ... with all that entails

 

[MartyBarrettMVP]

@brafo: Both sides of Lester negotiations say no deadline set by Red Sox. Waiting out meetings with teams. Still talking.

 

[67WasBest]

 
Well you can't tell us much then because this is completely false.
 
http://ask.fm/mlb_nl_al/answer/122079143844
 
When guessing and luck and taking it too far combines = perfect storm.

But we have Merloini tweets where he says the kid is legit.  I don't think not revealing details indicates anything

 

[doc]

Who in the world is Saved by the Belhorn?

We used to have a poster by that name here I think.

 

[E5 Yaz]

@brafo: Both sides of Lester negotiations say no deadline set by Red Sox. Waiting out meetings with teams. Still talking.

 
Now THIS I believe

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

 
Well you can't tell us much then because this is completely false.
 
http://ask.fm/mlb_nl_al/answer/122079143844
 
When being good at finding stuff on twitter and guessing and luck and taking it too far combines = perfect storm.

Well, this is just what I saw, so conflictions everywhere

https://twitter.com/loumerloni/status/537100680960696320

https://twitter.com/loumerloni/status/537100680960696320

link to tweet

 

[67WasBest]

We used to have a poster by that name here I think.

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/user/30067-savedbythebellhorn/

 

[SoxScout]

There are a lot of tweets that were deleted by that kid between the Stanton news breaking by the Miami guy and now that would open some eyes.
 
Saved By The Bellhorn is where a lot of the old ESPN board posters went when those closed down.

 

[67WasBest]

OK, no more source defense.  I'm just along for the ride and enjoying it thus far.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

The Red Sox need to get a grip and refrain from overpaying on Lester.  He will be 31 by the start of the 2015 season, he had an ERA+ of 110 in 2013, which is probably more representative of what kind of pitcher Lester will be most of the time than his walk year performance.  Lester has thrown a lot of pitches in his career, and these will begin to add up as he gets older.
 
The Sandoval and Ramirez signings were great; signing Lester to a 6-7 year deal at around 25 million per year is reckless Yankees style of building a team.  I do wonder if some kind of Red Sox-Epstein dynamic/competition is driving this, because the Red Sox are entering into territory that they are usually smart enough to avoid. . . .

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

Ugh forget it the formatting just blew up.

All that to say, WEEI was reporting no deal 6-8 hours after Wesley/Meola had reported the deals for both Hanley and Pablo. Further, EEI was reporting that the Agent said no deal had been made.

 

[E5 Yaz]

The Red Sox need to get a grip and refrain from overpaying on Lester.  He will be 31 by the start of the 2015 season, he had an ERA+ of 110 in 2013, which is probably more representative of what kind of pitcher Lester will be most of the time than his walk year performance.  Lester has thrown a lot of pitches in his career, and these will begin to add up as he gets older.
 
The Sandoval and Ramirez signings were great; signing Lester to a 6-7 year deal at around 25 million per year is reckless Yankees style of building a team.

 
Which goes back to what someone posted yesterday. How much a part, if any, is this notion that animosity between the ownership and Theo has made this about more than getting a No. 1 starter?

 

[jacklamabe65]

Who in the world is Saved by the Belhorn?

 
Formerly known as The Cabrera Era?

 

[BeantownIdaho]

Basic reading skills of timelines  and actual quotes seem to be lacking on here, thus resulting in more unnecessary arguments and clarifications.

 

[Lynchie]

Basic reading skills of timelines  and actual quotes seem to be lacking on here, thus resulting in more unnecessary arguments and clarifications.

That nails it.

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

 
Which goes back to what someone posted yesterday. How much a part, if any, is this notion that animosity between the ownership and Theo has made this about more than getting a No. 1 starter?

70%?

I love Lester. I want Lester. I don't care if we overpay Lester.

But lets also not forget, in 2012-2013, Lester posted a 4.28 ERA/3.84 FIP/3.86 xFIP. His offer pre-2014 of 4/70 was no doubt a low ball offer, but coming off the two seasons he had just had, was it really that low?

His value skyrocketed in 2014, though.

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

I just think it's funny how, pre-2014 people were still saying "When is he going to take that next step and become an ace"? Then he comes out, has an enormous season, and people forget about 2012-2013.

I do think a ton of his 2014 season can be attributed to Farrell/Nieves fixing his mechanics/getting him back to where he used to be.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

 
Which goes back to what someone posted yesterday. How much a part, if any, is this notion that animosity between the ownership and Theo has made this about more than getting a No. 1 starter?

 
And just think if the Yankees signed Lester to a 6-7 year contract at 25 million per year.  Plenty of Red Sox fans would celebrate that move (I know I would be thrilled with it -- in fact, I was hoping the Yankees would be all over Lester), knowing that while Lester will be pretty good for a few seasons, that kind of contract is going to be bad news later on and it might only take a couple of years before that kind of contract turns into something absurd.

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

so at what point can we re-title this thread as no longer premature?

 

[67WasBest]

so at what point can we re-title this thread as no longer premature?

When Corsi confirms

 

[rajendra82]

so at what point can we re-title this thread as no longer premature?

 
when a density of expectation hangs in the air and plucks an event out of the future

 

[ivanvamp]

 
And just think if the Yankees signed Lester to a 6-7 year contract at 25 million per year.  Plenty of Red Sox fans would celebrate that move (I know I would be thrilled with it -- in fact, I was hoping the Yankees would be all over Lester), knowing that while Lester will be pretty good for a few seasons, that kind of contract is going to be bad news later on and it might only take a couple of years before that kind of contract turns into something absurd.

 
This may be true.  However, the Sox have a TON of talent making its way to the majors in the next few years, and so they will have a lot of players making essentially the league minimum.  So when Lester's contract is "bad news", they'll have enough money elsewhere to absorb it.  This is one of the real advantages of having such an awesome farm system.  

 

[InsideTheParker]

I just think it's funny how, pre-2014 people were still saying "When is he going to take that next step and become an ace"? Then he comes out, has an enormous season, and people forget about 2012-2013.

I do think a ton of his 2014 season can be attributed to Farrell/Nieves fixing his mechanics/getting him back to where he used to be.

I haven't forgotten Lester pre-2014. He used to drive me crazy. On the other hand, 2014 happened, and there's no one else the Sox seem to have a good chance of signing that I prefer, including Hamels b/c of the non-AL Eastness. I assume that they will regret giving him the sixth and possibly the fifth year. But with this lineup, the Sox could win a couple before then.

 

[johnnydrama]

Is there any reason to think Lester's career will be most similar to Pettitte?  That horse-faced bastard can probably pitch and be effective today at like 42. To me, that is Lester's comp and if so, we will be very pleased if he is wearing a Sox uniform. 

 

[curly2]

The Sox blew it spring training, but that's all in the past. They've stepped here with an offer that's more than fair and generous, and if Lester truly wants to play in Boston and isn't about getting every last dollar, he should sign it.

If he IS about getting the most money, there's nothing wrong with that, but if not, sign the deal so the Sox can focus on dealing for their No. 2 starter.

 

[Ed Hillel]

 
This may be true.  However, the Sox have a TON of talent making its way to the majors in the next few years, and so they will have a lot of players making essentially the league minimum.  So when Lester's contract is "bad news", they'll have enough money elsewhere to absorb it.  This is one of the real advantages of having such an awesome farm system.  

 
I'm not really convinced it's all that true anyway. I don't view Lester is a prime candidate to break down quickly or severely (in shape, smooth motion, gets guys out with 4-5 different pitches, has a pretty positive injury history), and a guy with his career numbers probably is worth around 25 million a year. By the end of the contract, the top pitchers in the league may be getting 35+ million, and I don't think he'll be a terrible value by any stretch.  

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

I haven't forgotten Lester pre-2014. He used to drive me crazy. On the other hand, 2014 happened, and there's no one else the Sox seem to have a good chance of signing that I prefer, including Hamels b/c of the non-AL Eastness. I assume that they will regret giving him the sixth and possibly the fifth year. But with this lineup, the Sox could win a couple before then.

I agree, I really want Lester back. #1 guy I want.

I just feel like he morphed from always being s 'solid number 2' to becoming a #3/4, then had an outstanding year, and we put him up there with the elite guys.

I just hope our (my) expectations aren't too high for him. He's not going to have another 2014. He's likely a 3.3-3.5 era, 4-4.5 win player. Which is excellent, and like i said I would be thrilled to have him back, but sometimes I think the expectations get carried away into Kershaw land

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

Is there any reason to think Lester's career will be most similar to Pettitte?  That horse-faced bastard can probably pitch and be effective today at like 42. To me, that is Lester's comp and if so, we will be very pleased if he is wearing a Sox uniform. 

Seems like Lester lost velocity then gained it back, so he at least has some experience pitching with diminished stuff.

 

[rodderick]

I agree, I really want Lester back. #1 guy I want.

I just feel like he morphed from always being s 'solid number 2' to becoming a #3/4, then had an outstanding year, and we put him up there with the elite guys.

I just hope our (my) expectations aren't too high for him. He's not going to have another 2014. He's likely a 3.3-3.5 era, 4-4.5 win player. Which is excellent, and like i said I would be thrilled to have him back, but sometimes I think the expectations get carried away into Kershaw land

 
And he's going to be paid like one. If any team out there believed he was anywhere close to Kershaw, you would at the very least hear of 7 year deals being thrown around. Maybe fans are holding him to those standards, but certainly not here.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

The Sox blew it spring training, but that's all in the past. They've stepped here with an offer that's more than fair and generous, and if Lester truly wants to play in Boston and isn't about getting every last dollar, he should sign it.

If he IS about getting the most money, there's nothing wrong with that, but if not, sign the deal so the Sox can focus on dealing for their No. 2 starter.

 
I'm not sure if the Red Sox blew it in spring training.  Lester came off a season in which he had a respectable, but far from elite, ERA+ of 110, and this followed a much worse season in 2012.  But then during his walk year, Lester basically has a career year.  Sure, they could have offered him more money than the reported offer, but I can understand the Red Sox's hesitation and concern at the time based on his 2012 and 2013 numbers.

 

[mauidano]

It's good to be left handed and able to throw strikes period.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

Is there any reason to think Lester's career will be most similar to Pettitte?  That horse-faced bastard can probably pitch and be effective today at like 42. To me, that is Lester's comp and if so, we will be very pleased if he is wearing a Sox uniform. 

 
This comparison doesn't work for me; Pettitte was a PED guy.  I don't believe the story that he only took it once.  He may have been a habitual user, and this might explain why his career, which was trending downwards at one point, had a miraculous upswing.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Is Rosenthal suggestion a Lester deal has a Ross kicker?

 
I posted months ago about the Lester negotiation with the Sox having parallels to Henry Wiggen's with the Mammoths. If the "catcher clause" were added, that would raise it to a whole 'nother realm.

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

For what it's worth, that Saved by the Bellhorn guy is sticking to his guns. Says deal will be announced Friday.

At least we can all see if this picks up steam over the next 36-48 hours instead of acting interested in our relatives cat stories.

 

[Quintanariffic]

Or maybe he went to Houston and faced pitchers every time through the batting order and then the rest of the league stopped taking PEDs when he came back to the Yankees, coinciding with a general decrease in offense overall.
 
I could be crazy though - probably easier just to throw out a habitual PED user claim and call it a day.

 

[curly2]

 
I'm not sure if the Red Sox blew it in spring training.  Lester came off a season in which he had a respectable, but far from elite, ERA+ of 110, and this followed a much worse season in 2012.  But then during his walk year, Lester basically has a career year.  Sure, they could have offered him more money than the reported offer, but I can understand the Red Sox's hesitation and concern at the time based on his 2012 and 2013 numbers.

I think the 110 in 2013 is deceiving. He started strong and finished strong. It seemed like he had a "dead arm" period for about a month before the break, and the extra rest around the break seemed to fix it.

And he was brilliant in the postseason, which doesn't show up in the 110.

 

[nighthob]

Only thing I can tell you is that Merloni has checked in with him, kid has revealed his sources to Merloni, who has confirmed they exist.
 

 
Maybe Merloni doesn't know that Fitzie's gone?

 

[Harry Hooper]

I think the 110 in 2013 is deceiving. He started strong and finished strong. It seemed like he had a "dead arm" period for about a month before the break, and the extra rest around the break seemed to fix it.

And he was brilliant in the postseason, which doesn't show up in the 110.

 
FYI, there are many months' worth of posts in the old "Extending Lester" thread that examine the pros and cons of Lester's pre-2014 track record.

 

[Green Monster]

 
Given what we've learned about our 14-year-old wunderkind to this point, IF that is accurate he'd have said far more than "that's accurate" at this point. It's only in his responses to someone else, and doesn't appear on his main feed or in his chat. Either he's decided overnight to become low-key, or something is off

 
The accuracy of his reports would indicate that Wesley has a source close to the Red Sox front office.  That source and the entire front office surely knows what he has been reporting/tweeting/saying on radio interviews.  If the Lester negotiations are currently being finalized it is plausible that his source has asked him to lay low until they give him the go ahead to run with it.

 

[nattysez]

Just to freak everyone out, we've got a rodeo announcer weighing in...
 
 

@Mariners close to "worthy" agreement with Jon Lester's agent. Lester may return to Washington state. #JonLester could see a 7-yr deal. #MLB
 

 
 
https://twitter.com/HilgerRodeo/status/537699592775548928

 

[sackamano]

How does some random 14-year old Cardinal fan from St.Louis end up with a source so close to the Red Sox negotiations?

 

[EvilEmpire]

The accuracy of his reports would indicate that Wesley has a source close to the Red Sox front office.  That source and the entire front office surely knows what he has been reporting/tweeting/saying on radio interviews.  If the Lester negotiations are currently being finalized it is plausible that his source has asked him to lay low until they give him the go ahead to run with it.

I don't think a Red Sox source would give a 14 year old anything without expecting it to be reported. If that source wanted radio listening silence, nothing would be provided to the fid at all.

If it really is a Red Sox source, I think the kid is either a) helping the Sox by keeping the rumor churn going, or b) is taken with his new celebrity and exaggerating what he's been fed a bit on his own.

 

[rajendra82]

Just to freak everyone out, we've got a rodeo announcer weighing in...
 
 
 
 
https://twitter.com/HilgerRodeo/status/537699592775548928

 
Close only counts in horseshoes.

 

[Bongorific]

What is a worthy agreement? He writes like a rodeo clown.

 

[Rice4HOF]

How does some random 14-year old Cardinal fan from St.Louis end up with a source so close to the Red Sox negotiations?

Ask Lou Merloni.

 

[ookami7m]

How does some random 14-year old Cardinal fan from St.Louis end up with a source so close to the Red Sox negotiations?

 
There's a whole thread in the media subforum going over this.