The premature re-signing Lester thread
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Tyrone Biggums said:
Would it? I'd agree with the statement "It would really kill the off season if the Sox weren't able to add a top of the rotation starter", but if that pitcher isn't Lester, my off-season isn't killed. Lester has brought a lot of good things to the Sox in the past, but I'm very nervous about paying for his decline years. Yes, he's likely to be an effective pitcher in the AL East for another few season, but the arm has many miles behind it, and any more than a four year deal probably means paying big money for tail-end of career decline seasons. If that fits the payroll structure of the Sox going forward, then OK, but it will likely limit future flexibility and options. There's been plenty of analysis on this board (and in this thread) to indicate that most long term contracts for over-30 year old pitchers have pretty mixed outcomes, and there's nothing particular about Lester that would make me any more confident about his durability relative to his peer group.
Based on the work done so far, I have some faith that the front office will be addressing the rotation issues. If Lester is the answer, then that's fine. If it's someone else comparable, obtained through a palatable free-agent deal or appropriate prospect trade, that's also fine. My off season only gets "killed" if Spring Training comes around and the pitching options look broadly similar to how they look now. And that would seem to be a dereliction of duty by the front office, hence it isn't going to happen.
Lester is the only top of the rotation starter that would require Boston no assets other than cash. Everyone else requires young talent and picks. Combine that with his big game reputation and his ability to pitch in Boston and it makes too much sense to close the deal. It also allows the Sox to use Cespedes to acquire another top SP that can interchange with Lester at the 1 spot.pockmeister said:
1. Their top pick is protected, so that is less important if they went after Shields / Scherzer. They have also already lost their second rounder from signing Sandoval (which is going to be around pick #50 anyway). The compensation is a very minor consideration.Tyrone Biggums said:
2. They have a glut of young players and we've been saying you need to cash in some of them while they still have value. Given the Panda signing and assuming they add two starters (likely) the following prospects have nowhere to play in the near future: Cecchini, Marrero, Coyle, Shaw, JBJ, and a couple of the glut of pitchers are going to have to go as well. They need to make decisions about who they want to keep as depth and use the rest as trade chips if they are going for it this year.
3. They still have a good deal of financial flexibility but with the two big signings it's not as much as before (duh). "Just cash" is not necessarily the way to go at this point especially if you want to spend "just cash" on Miller, other relievers, backup catcher, etc.
I agree I would prefer Lester to Shields or Scherzer (assuming Scherzer is going to be more expensive), but I'm not sure I'd prefer him to swinging a trade for someone equally good, which I think they have the assets to do.
There is zero chance the Sox don't dramatically upgrade the starting pitching somehow. You don't spend the money on Hanley and Panda unless you are trying to improve significantly RIGHT NOW. And the Sox are well aware of their huge holes in the front of the rotation, what's available, and the resources they have to address that.
I hope it's Lester and a really solid #2 by trade (Cespedes?). If it isn't, it will be someone. They aren't going to spend this kind of money on Hanley/Panda and then go into the season hoping Joe Kelly can be your #2 starter. Zero chance of that.
I hope it's Lester and a really solid #2 by trade (Cespedes?). If it isn't, it will be someone. They aren't going to spend this kind of money on Hanley/Panda and then go into the season hoping Joe Kelly can be your #2 starter. Zero chance of that.
Toe Nash said:
Agreed!
The Moneyball exploitation of the undervalued high OBP player is extinct. Prospects don't seem undervalued anymore either with pretty much every organization hording their best. Veteran pitching doesn't qualify with wasteful long term contracts weighing down team budgets. Hitting, particularly power hitting comes at a premium. The Sox clearly paid full price or arguably even overpaid for their latest acquisitions. Given the demand for this scarcity, the Sox should be able to get reasonable return for their expendable offense. I think that Hanley is possibly best utilized at 1B and Napoli might be their prime trade fodder. If they trade Cespedes, their offense can carry JBJ's defense. Average pitchers will love the range and defense of a Betts-JBJ-Castillo outfield.
To me, young AAA, rookie and even second year pitchers are undervalued. They are cheap, cost controlled and, generally, harder throwing. It doesn't cost as much to get them. Not all will succeed but the cost for tryouts and failure are minimal compared to overpaying older players too much for too long. Hanley and Panda are still in their prime years of production and probably worth the larger investment. They didn't blink when Pedro, Ellsbury and others cost too much for too long before. I think they will be outbid for Lester who won't be worth what he will get after those first 3 or 4 years. Younger pitchers like Ross and Cashner in San Diego, for example, seem undervalued. The Sox got good returns for the expiring contracts of Peavy and Miller last season. Undervaluation and lack of patience for pitchers like Rodriguez, Escobar and Hembree made them available to the Sox. In some ways, you can never have too much young pitching and it seems like the offensive surplus for the Sox and some of their own young surplus pitching could be packaged to get even better young pitching. The Braves seemed to recognize this when they got a probably underrated but promising cost controlled Shelby Miller. Paying for older injury prone and declining pitching is too risky and relatively wasteful.
If I am right, their free agent currency won't be overspent for aging veteran pitching. Trading for more of those undervalued young pitchers who will compete to fill out rotation and bullpen openings is probably the way to go.
Yes on Coyle and the AAAA pitching, maybe on JBJ, but not so fast there on Cecchini, Marrero, and Shaw. After 2015 we have Bogaerts, Sandoval, and Ramirez to fill four positions, and we'll have DH to fill pretty soon as well. We're not as deep as we look right now in the infield, because much of our infield depth is headed for the left end of the spectrum with a bullet.Toe Nash said:
If they are stunned, my friend, it is at the sheer desperation, and the backtracking. After all, these signings say to them: we don't believe in what we have, or our vaunted prospect depth. We don't believe in Cespedes.Hank Scorpio said:
In paying for these guys you've devalued your trading assets.
someoneanywhere said:
Well if you don't really believe in your prospects then who cares? It would become evident through their play so you might as well get players in who are superior while they are available and deal with the prospects on the back end.
someoneanywhere said:
This is utter nonsense. You use your prospect depth for two things: 1)To trade for more certainty at positions of need; and 2)To have payroll flexibility since you're getting production for minimum salaries. They know, or at least believe, that they'll be able to have at least a SS, catcher, OF and multiple pitchers on the roster next year for minimum salaries. That allows them to spend money on Hanley, Pablo and, hopefully, Lester.
Agreed if they are trying to trade them now.someoneanywhere said:
I prefer to think he message about the kids is, "they're not quite ready, and need to cook for a while longer, so we're putting them back in the oven"
I'm surprised we signed Hanley, you know, with the Dodgers not believing in him enough to make him a better offer.
I think it signals the exact opposite--trust in the kids to be a "core" and fill out the roster with some premium veteran talent to separate them from the pack. "Desperation"?
But yeah, they clearly are ready to trade Cespedes.
But yeah, they clearly are ready to trade Cespedes.
Hee Sox Choi said:
Both teams likely do not view him as a SS moving forward, so he was going to have to play somewhere else. The Dodgers have a crowded OF and are struggling to manage playing time with their 3 overpaid aging veterans and two young studs. Additionally, they are committed to Uribe for next year at 3B. So it may be a product of having space. The Sox can use him in LF this year and then transition him to a corner infield position or DH over the course of his contract.
I'm more surprised we signed him given his reported attitude problems.
The corresponding NESN article has an old video of BradfordCaskNFappin said:
http://nesn.com/2014/11/reports-jon-lester-boston-red-sox-still-engaged-in-contract-talks/
jasail said:
Yeah, you missed the point of my comment. It was 100% pure snark based on a comment above that said Yoenis lost his trade value because the "Red Sox don't believe in him." I will make sure I use the sarcasm asterisk next time*.
You're right, it wasn't an issue. I live in LA and hear about the Dodgers constantly and never heard any issues about Hanley. I asked a couple Dodger fan friends yesterday about Hanley and they thought he fit in well and was a good player. Across the board, they didn't like his SS defense, at all.JimD said:
I think this was a great signing. I put this in another thread, but Hanley has a higher lifetime wRC+ than Tulo. Think about that. That's a serious bat.
Hee Sox Choi said:
I'm in LA too and I remember thinking to myself how odd it was how thoroughly he got ignored around here, though that's a function of having Puig, Kershaw, Gonzalez et al on the same team.
Honestly, sounds like he might just be a little full of himself and it took his co-workers a little time to get used to it. It really seems like a complete non-issue, especially if he's got a close friend waiting for him in the clubhouse.
When a player is the focus of the team as Hanley was in Miami, every transgression gets magnified. When you are one of the cast, as he was in LA, it's easier to just live your life without every mistake blown out of proportion.JohntheBaptist said:
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jasail said:
Plenty of talk about Hanley in the Hanley thread. Both of them, really. Including this supposed thing.
Anyway, did Oakland even make a half-effort to retain Lester? They can't make a QO because they acquired him at the deadline, but did they even try?
someoneanywhere said:
Its neither desperation, nor backtracking. Neither Ramirez nor Sandoval were available last winter. The "philosophy" that everyone seems to think that the Sox "abandoned" never existed, except in the minds of people that demand that a team have a "philosophy" or "plan" which can be boiled to some sort of three sentence mantra.
They haven't "devalued" anything. It doesn't matter what the Red Sox think of their prospects. The Sox may think JBJ is the next Garry Maddox, but if a trading partner doesn't, then too bad. Conversely, the Sox might think internally that JBJ is the next Dwayne Hosey, but if a trading partner sees Maddox, then its off to the trade room. Some team can think that Will Middlebrooks can be a low OBP plus SLG% 3Bman even if the Sox think the ship has sailed. Teams trade guys all the time who they think suck, who turn out not to suck, but its not like they walk into the room and say "its official, Middlebrooks blows, first bag of balls gets him."
67WasBest said:
Exactly the impression I got, which should put the influence these "mistakes" have on overall team performance in nice perspective.
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats 4m4 minutes ago
.@thekapman is reporting the Cubs have offered Lester "north of $135M."
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.@thekapman is reporting the Cubs have offered Lester "north of $135M."
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Try what? The QO would have been their only "move" in the past, and even that wasn't available. I don't think you can start a conversation about commitments that your owner wouldn't even dream of approving. I certainly don't have any insider info but I would guess there's a professional code to free agent maneuvering that calls for teams to have at least some legit interest at the market rate before scheduling a meeting.MentalDisabldLst said:
MartyBarrettMVP said:
https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/537331865279938560"]4m4
link to tweet minutes ago[/url]
.@thekapman is reporting the Cubs have offered Lester "north of $135M."
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https://twitter.com/mlb_nl_al/status/537065330443812864
https://twitter.com/mlb_nl_al/status/537065330443812864
link to tweet
If the Cubs are in at 6/140ish, I still don't think that's enough to pull him from a 6/130-140 from Boston
Is it me or does it seem weird that we have had all this movement on Lester but nary a word of anything going on with Max Scherzer?
Scherzer might realize he's the second choice for the Lester suitors and waiting for Jon to set the market.BoSoxFink said:
A meeting? Next week? Well, I guess that's checkmate. Lester *can't* sign a contract now if he has a meeting scheduled!nattysez said:
Giants aren't winning the post-post-season. Of course, they have quite a pile of house money, so...
Jake Wesley MLB@mlb_nl_al 9m9 minutes ago
UPDATE: since hearing Red Sox 6/130 offer to Lester, Cubs have topped offer. Don't think sox want to negotiate.
https://twitter.com/mlb_nl_al/status/537336540331253762
UPDATE: since hearing Red Sox 6/130 offer to Lester, Cubs have topped offer. Don't think sox want to negotiate.
https://twitter.com/mlb_nl_al/status/537336540331253762
Seriously guys, at the same time a meeting with the Giants is leaked next week there's a Tweet about how the Sox are balking at 6/130. Lester wants to come back here and he's trying to get Boston to submit their absolute best and final offer...as he should. If someone else blows it away, maybe he'll go there, but he wants to see what the Sox's top offer is first. This is all posturing.
IMO this is good news because it shows he's trying to see what the absolute best offer is from the Sox, which tells me he genuinely does want to come back here.
IMO this is good news because it shows he's trying to see what the absolute best offer is from the Sox, which tells me he genuinely does want to come back here.
The Giants involvement seems odd to me. Maybe I'm off base but it feels like they have a huge amount of money tied up in their rotation already.
Cain - $20 mil
Lincecum - $18 mil
Hudson - $12 mil
Bumgarner - $7 mil
They would add another $23ish million to that? That is $80mm next year and their whole payroll last year was $149 million. Doesn't seem to fit.
Cain - $20 mil
Lincecum - $18 mil
Hudson - $12 mil
Bumgarner - $7 mil
They would add another $23ish million to that? That is $80mm next year and their whole payroll last year was $149 million. Doesn't seem to fit.
I'm guessing it's likely the Cubs would go up a little more as well and this could go on forever.
Remember the good times when Jon Lester said it wasn't all about the money? He didn't need to be blown away? It was all about his family being comfortable?
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