The predictive value of FT%

moondog80

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Jackson's shooting from the line (55%) is also troubling. He needs a lot of improvement just to get to a passable level.
It seems like it should be impossible for a player that talented -- who does not otherwise have "big guy" skills -- to be that bad at free throws. Maybe a lot of freshmen simply never dedicated themselves to it and improve a great deal once they start to focus? Aaron Gordon shot 42% his one year at Arizona and has shot (better but still not good) 72%, 67%, and 62% in his 3 pro seasons so far. I don't know. When I hear that a guy has it all except for shooting, I think of Gordon and Marcus Smart. There's space in the NBA for these guys, but I want more from a high lottery pick in a supposedly loaded draft.
 

moondog80

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DannyDarwinism

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Projecting from college numbers is such an imprecise game but those numbers can provide interesting context.

Here's a list of freshmen with FT% < .600, sorted by win shares (since 1995).

It's a list dominated by bigs and there are a lot of warning signs there. Avery Bradley is one relative bright spot, though.

Josh Jackson is 36th on the list.
But he's only played 22 games compared to 35+ for most of the other guys on that list, so that's going to ding his Win Shares. FWIW he's 10th by BPM, but you're right it's pretty discouraging trying to find success stories among wing players. Aaron Gordon was even worse at the line and shot similarly from three. He's at 67% at the line so far in the NBA.

Notably, Justin Patton who's gaining some draft steam is 2nd overall on the list by BPM. And damn, Nerlens was a defensive beast.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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When I hear that a guy has it all except for shooting, I think of Gordon and Marcus Smart. There's space in the NBA for these guys, but I want more from a high lottery pick in a supposedly loaded draft.
Neither Aaron Gordon nor Marcus Smart had the offensive skills that Jackson has and neither are remotely close to Jackson as a prospect.

One comparison I've seen that fits is Clyde Drexler. Tracy McGrady is also thrown around, as is Andrew Wiggins (but seems like he has a higher BBall IQ and better court vision) than Wiggins.
 

moondog80

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Drexler shot 59%, 61%, and 74% in college, and then 79% over his long NBA career. So yeah, that's encouraging, it can happen. But are there any other example in the 36 years between Drexler and Jackson?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Drexler shot 59%, 61%, and 74% in college, and then 79% over his long NBA career. So yeah, that's encouraging, it can happen. But are there any other example in the 36 years between Drexler and Jackson?
Karl Malone. To a lesser extent, Chris Webber.
 

Devizier

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But he's only played 22 games compared to 35+ for most of the other guys on that list, so that's going to ding his Win Shares. FWIW he's 10th by BPM, but you're right it's pretty discouraging trying to find success stories among wing players. Aaron Gordon was even worse at the line and shot similarly from three. He's at 67% at the line so far in the NBA.

Notably, Justin Patton who's gaining some draft steam is 2nd overall on the list by BPM. And damn, Nerlens was a defensive beast.
Yeah, it's not so much where Jackson ranks among those guys, just that even great college players with low FT% have not found a lot of success in the league. Even notoriously bad shooters like Smart were pretty good FT shooters in college.
 

DJnVa

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Kent Bazemore:

College: 43%, 49%, 66%, 63%
NBA: 61%, 60%, 82%, 72%

Sorry, he's my boy.
 

Cellar-Door

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On bad non-center college FT shooters going to the NBA. TJ Warren shot 54% as a Freshman, 79% this year in NBA and 75% for his NBA career.
Avery Bradley 54% as a Freshman 78% for NBA career.
Dorian Finney Smith 58%as a Freshman 79% in the NBA
Norman Powell 60% as a Freshman 79% NBA career
 

HomeRunBaker

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On bad non-center college FT shooters going to the NBA. TJ Warren shot 54% as a Freshman, 79% this year in NBA and 75% for his NBA career.
Avery Bradley 54% as a Freshman 78% for NBA career.
Dorian Finney Smith 58%as a Freshman 79% in the NBA
Norman Powell 60% as a Freshman 79% NBA career
There are a ton of similar examples. You have to look for an uptick in FT% to properly utilize it to project future development from the perimeter once the players gets into their 20's. All Jackson's freshman numbers show is that this is an opportunity for him to improve to reach that level and not a static stat to indicate that he isn't capable of it.

The shot is flawed mechanically however so was Webber's. Shooting is a learnable skill.....those other things Jackson already does athletically are not.
 

bowiac

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Yeah, it's not so much where Jackson ranks among those guys, just that even great college players with low FT% have not found a lot of success in the league. Even notoriously bad shooters like Smart were pretty good FT shooters in college.
This is where I'm at. I wouldn't touch Jackson. Yes, some guys improve their FT% dramatically, but it's relatively rare. I would not want to use a high lottery pick on a wing with serious mechanical issues with his shot.
 

reggiecleveland

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Shooting is very hard to improve later in your career,but ti can happen. It just rarely takes a big jump.

You could look at this guys FT% the 4 years before entering the NBA
79.7
71.1
59.3
67.8

Was he a 60, 70 or 80% shooter? Was trending two years under 70. But stats would indicate shooting potential that has manifested itself as a pro. Known as a workahlic this pro has never been able to get to 80.

Has shot 74% as a pro.

Old school coaches really worry about guys that can't get close to 70, you worry about ever being an average shooter.
How many good jump shooter were sub 70% ft shooters? Bruce Bowan is one that comes to mind. .575 ft, .395 sp%
 

JCizzle

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This is where I'm at. I wouldn't touch Jackson. Yes, some guys improve their FT% dramatically, but it's relatively rare. I would not want to use a high lottery pick on a wing with serious mechanical issues with his shot.
While not related to the subject, his name has also floated up in some off the field stuff this year too.