The Poll: Is Wyc burning Brad- Should CBS be torched at season's end?

[BigSoxFan]

This is where I'm at too. This is a roster of pieces that don't really fit together. In addition, a lot of recent moves seem pretty bad in hindsight. He basically traded Hayward for Fournier this year. Rozier for Kemba two years ago. Horford for nothing. Held on to the SAC & MEM picks that ultimately ended up in the late lottery and didn't deliver on either pick. Guys like Semi and Grant are expected to be key bench contributors. Meh.

I think both guys need to have a long look in the mirror about how they're managing this team. Of course many of the players deserve equal --if not greater -- blame for generally poor effort and atrocious shot selections, but that's a subject for different threads I guess

I would love to know what the opportunity cost of holding onto the SAC/MEM picks was. Have to imagine that Ainge could have landed some interesting players a year or two prior to those picks conveying.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

When I left for vacation, I was reading tweets like this around here:

View: https://twitter.com/GuyBostonSports/status/1382425078948827140


Two weeks later, and I see we're back to talking about how COVID is affecting Tatum?

The bottom line, IMO, is this team needs to get out and fucking run, like all the time. They need to control the pace. They are pretty much fucking horrible in the half court set, and that's doubly true when their shots aren't falling. Last night, when they went on the run in the 3rd quarter to get back in the game and take the lead, Jaylen and PP were literally pushing the ball on every possession. Just a dead sprint up the floor. When they do this, they move the ball, play more free and look for open guys. There was one play in particular that ended with PP on a reverse layup, after about 5 passes (before OKC was even back on defense) and Scal made a comment like "you can't tell me this isn't fun to play basketball like that." Almost simultaneously with them pushing the ball, their defense awoke from it's slumber, and about 10 of those 27 turnovers that OKC had happened during that stretch.

That needs to be this team's identity going forward. Constant pushing the pace, constant in your face defense (not a full court press, just active, hands up, helping, etc.) and constantly FUCKING MOVING. The next time Tatum brings the ball over half court with less than 19 seconds on the shot clock, I'm benching him, unless he's beating a press or something in the back court. In fact, I'm benching anyone that does that. Just get out and run, it opens everything up, gives these bench guys opportunities to make plays in space (which they can all do at this level) and go. I'm not saying you go full tilt, Hank Gathers/Loyola Marymount, but they need to control the action for much longer stretches in games, and IMO, exerting consistent pressure on both ends is exactly how you do it.

 

[bsj]

I would love to know what the opportunity cost of holding onto the SAC/MEM picks was. Have to imagine that Ainge could have landed some interesting players a year or two prior to those picks conveying.

I don't know where we go from here. I've said before, and been criticized for it, but I think there are two paths to a title in the modern NBA.

1- Have a starting 5 full of top of very good or better NBA players (Jayson and Tatum certainly fit...Kemba I thought would but not sure now)....and an elite big,
2- or go the positionless route but in that scenario, you need 2 or 3 of the best of the best elites (Lebron, Durant, Kyrie, Kawhi level) surrounded by exceptional depth.

Im sure there are other ways, and I'm sure responses to this post will detail them, but from where I sit, most of the contenders right now seem to a dominant big man, ~2-3 really exceptional/elite level NBA players, or both.

The Celtics don't really have either.

This isnt a doom and gloom post...I just dont know what the next steps should be to get to one of those pathways.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I don't know where we go from here. I've said before, and been criticized for it, but I think there are two paths to a title in the modern NBA.

1- Have a starting 5 full of top of very good or better NBA players (Jayson and Tatum certainly fit...Kemba I thought would but not sure now)....and an elite big,
2- or go the positionless route but in that scenario, you need 2 or 3 of the best of the best elites (Lebron, Durant, Kyrie, Kawhi level) surrounded by exceptional depth.

Im sure there are other ways, and I'm sure responses to this post will detail them, but from where I sit, most of the contenders right now seem to a dominant big man, ~2-3 really exceptional/elite level NBA players, or both.

The Celtics don't really have either.

This isnt a doom and gloom post...I just dont know what the next steps should be to get to one of those pathways.

Time Lord has had dominant stretches though. Feel like the path is his continued development along with the Jay’s along with somehow turning everything else (including potentially Smart) into something better than current Kemba.

 

[lexrageorge]

Assuming Kemba plays out his contract here (who else is going to take him?), there's a non-zero chance that JT and/or JB follow him out the door when they hit FA after their current deals.

I think that's the part everyone keeps missing when we talk about giving rope to Ainge or Stevens. These stars we have aren't under lifetime contracts, and we all know NBA players have the ability to choose when they want to leave and where they want to go. IF the C's continue to fuck up this season, and things don't improve next season, we may be completely rebuilding again after that. You can't wait and hope in the NBA, IMO. You have to be in either GFIN mode, or tank mode. Everything in between is purgatory.

The key bit of information that we lack, IMO, is the relationship between Stevens and Tatum and Brown. There is always the risk that if Stevens is jettisoned that he gets replaced with someone who concludes that Tatum and Brown are the problem and then they both high tail it out of town anyway. Either way, if the bolded does happen, Ainge should be canned the day Tatum walks out the door regardless of who the coach is.

I am in the camp that while Stevens hasn't been perfect, there have been some extenuating circumstances that were outside his control, and that matters. And I've never felt that this team was going to be a true contender this season due to the luxury tax concerns, something that Wyc has been open about. I also feel that it would be inexcusable for Ainge to come back with the same roster given the expected player movement this offseason. If he doesn't, and the team struggles next season, then both Ainge and Stevens should be shot to the moon, mid-season if necessary. Because next season is when it will get late early when it comes to this team's ultimate trajectory. Using Kemba as an excuse for not improving would be GM malpractice, IMO.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

The key bit of information that we lack, IMO, is the relationship between Stevens and Tatum and Brown. There is always the risk that if Stevens is jettisoned that he gets replaced with someone who concludes that Tatum and Brown are the problem and then they both high tail it out of town anyway. Either way, if the bolded does happen, Ainge should be canned the day Tatum walks out the door regardless of who the coach is.

I am in the camp that while Stevens hasn't been perfect, there have been some extenuating circumstances that were outside his control, and that matters. And I've never felt that this team was going to be a true contender this season due to the luxury tax concerns, something that Wyc has been open about. I also feel that it would be inexcusable for Ainge to come back with the same roster given the expected player movement this offseason. If he doesn't, and the team struggles next season, then both Ainge and Stevens should be shot to the moon, mid-season if necessary. Because next season is when it will get late early when it comes to this team's ultimate trajectory. Using Kemba as an excuse for not improving would be GM malpractice, IMO.

If Stevens were to get fired, Tatum and Brown would probably have heavy say in who the coach is so I don't think it would be a problem. If Ainge got fired, the GM coming in could definitely decide to move on from JB/JT.

 

[lexrageorge]

If Stevens were to get fired, Tatum and Brown would probably have heavy say in who the coach is so I don't think it would be a problem. If Ainge got fired, the GM coming in could definitely decide to move on from JB/JT.

Moving on from JB/JT sets the clock back by a minimum of 5 years, with the team drowning in true mediocrity in the interim. I don't think Wyc is going to allow that.

 

[Jimbodandy]

This thread makes baby Jasus cry.

The desire to consider whether Brad or Danny is on a hot seat here is understandable. We expected more than a .500 team and ownership likely did also.

That said, rush to hold people "accountable" and call for headzz is a bit much. Did you folks not watch how weird the bubble ball was? Some teams and players fell apart, and some were ridiculously better than they really are. We're seeing a watered down version of that this year, and there isn't always a stock explanation for it. We and ownership are looking at all factors doesn't mean that anyone is against holding people accountable or making changes. Same goes for rooks and second year players who haven't had typical training camps and offseasons. You cats are free to discount that shit, but I hope that ownership doesn't.

 

[Auger34]

I don’t think Brad should be fired. This has been a weird year, no question about it.

However, it’s abundantly clear that he was massively overrated by the fan base and the media. We are a long way from all of the talk of CBS being a sure fire top 5 coach and possibly worth more than a 1st round draft pick. I think he’s an above average coach, probably top 10?, but I don’t think hes close to the top tier/elite coaches.

He has some very clear flaws (never arguing with the refs, seemingly only holding young players accountable while letting veterans go hog wild, inability to turn the tide). For whatever reason, this years team and the second Kyrie year made these flaws glaring and obvious. I think that Stevens desperately needs to have a veteran leader on the roster to help him overcome his flaws
A smart player who can motivate, stand up and hold people accountable and tell them to get their head out of their ass. Smart has had that label for a while I think he’s too emotional/sensitive and makes way too many boneheaded plays to be a good fit for the role.

This is a lost season. I really hope that the Jays stay invested in this organization and this year hasn’t caused anyso damage that would make them want to leave. I am also praying that Kemba gets healthy and can showcase himself more so that he can be traded in the offseason and actually get an asset back

 

[Fishy1]

When I left for vacation, I was reading tweets like this around here:

View: https://twitter.com/GuyBostonSports/status/1382425078948827140


Two weeks later, and I see we're back to talking about how COVID is affecting Tatum?

The bottom line, IMO, is this team needs to get out and fucking run, like all the time. They need to control the pace. They are pretty much fucking horrible in the half court set, and that's doubly true when their shots aren't falling. Last night, when they went on the run in the 3rd quarter to get back in the game and take the lead, Jaylen and PP were literally pushing the ball on every possession. Just a dead sprint up the floor. When they do this, they move the ball, play more free and look for open guys. There was one play in particular that ended with PP on a reverse layup, after about 5 passes (before OKC was even back on defense) and Scal made a comment like "you can't tell me this isn't fun to play basketball like that." Almost simultaneously with them pushing the ball, their defense awoke from it's slumber, and about 10 of those 27 turnovers that OKC had happened during that stretch.

That needs to be this team's identity going forward. Constant pushing the pace, constant in your face defense (not a full court press, just active, hands up, helping, etc.) and constantly FUCKING MOVING. The next time Tatum brings the ball over half court with less than 19 seconds on the shot clock, I'm benching him, unless he's beating a press or something in the back court. In fact, I'm benching anyone that does that. Just get out and run, it opens everything up, gives these bench guys opportunities to make plays in space (which they can all do at this level) and go. I'm not saying you go full tilt, Hank Gathers/Loyola Marymount, but they need to control the action for much longer stretches in games, and IMO, exerting consistent pressure on both ends is exactly how you do it.

I agree, to a certain extent -- it would be lovely if the Celtics got out and ran more -- but I don't think a fast pace would be sustainable with the compressed schedule and injuries that the Celtics have faced. They've rarely been healthy, of course, but I don't think that's the team's real problem. They've managed to play great defense in April, so that's in their favor too.

The real problem is the shooting. I mean, there's a reason why going under screens worked against us last night. I'm not sure any of this is on Brad. This team has neither the discipline nor the skill, and not even the confidence, to run a half-court offense consistently, mostly because their long-range shooting is not very good. The only two excellent shooters on volume are Tatum and Brown, but when Kemba or Pritchard isn't out there, the ball sticks in Tatum's and Brown's hands. They both want to be alpha dogs, and I get it. The most generous reading of their offense is that both of them are getting some necessary experience facing tough defense in isolation situations without a stabilizing influence, but watching it is painful and it's losing them games. Tatum is a good passer already but Brown still coughs up the ball far too often for how much he's touching it. But I don't think they're the problem either.

Both of them are way better players when other people are setting them up to score, but the Celtics best playmakers are too prone to tunnel vision and ludicrous shot attempts -- I'm thinking of Kemba and Smart primarily, and the issues with Smart have compounded as Kemba has declined. This team cannot survive Kemba and Smart taking up a third of this team's three point attempts every night at the rates they shoot, especially without reliable shooting surrounding them.

Of the 5 guys on this team shooting more than three 3P attempts a game, only Pritchard and Brown are shooting north of 40%, and both Smart and Kemba, who are taking a whopping 14 combined threes a game, are shooting under 35%. Their shooting woes would be survivable if this team had an elite bench shooter like any number of other elite teams have, but they don't. Instead, Kemba is in the top 15 in 3PA per game and is the second worst of the group after Jordan Clarkson. The difference for Jordan Clarkson is he's surrounded by five shooters at any given time who are around 40% and taking five or so shots a game, including Joe Ingles, who's been Joe Harris West this year. Whereas for the Celtics, the only players taking a high volume of shots on good percentages are Brown and Tatum.

Payton Pritchard nearly saved us last night because he was unleashed. He's a great shooter who should be shooting far more often for this team. His release is a minor problem but he's been able to get himself open far more often than not. Of the rest of the kitchen sink, which Brad has tried desperately to throw at the court all season, only Semi and Grant Williams have shot well enough to stay on the floor, and they both have struggled so mightily otherwise that it didn't matter. Fournier should help when he gets back to full strength, but Kemba and especially Smart will need to defer a lot more, finding him and Pritchard in the corner or open on the wing, rather than taking those shots themselves. Jaylen should also be taking like eight or nine attempts a game, and why he doesn't is a mystery to me.

Does all of this land on Brad? On the contrary, I think Danny Ainge put together a roster without enough shooting. He's missed out on any number of guards who can light it up. Even if everyone were healthy, they would not have the firepower to win many night.

I hope Danny realizes he can't continue to allow Kemba and Smart to shoot them out of games. They desperately need to upgrade their shooting at least at one of those positions next year, and they also need a consistent bench shooter of around 40% taking north of five attempts a game. Smart continuing to foist up three pointers despite the zenith of his three point shooting career being a hefty 36% is as much an indictment of Ainge as it is Brad. I love Smart, but he should almost never be taking more than ten shots a game, nevermind averaging six attempts three pointers. I in fact would love to see him playing 25-30 minutes so he can focus on defense and distributing.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I honestly feel like the roster construction stuff is a red herring. Is the roster not good enough to beat the Nets, Sixers and Bucks in the post-season, yeah, probably (definitely?). Can they compete with a fully healthy Lakers or Jazz or Clippers? Nope.

But in the last 3 games:

The Nets without 2 of the best players on the planet (Harden and Durant) beat us with Bruce Brown, and the corpses of Jeff Green and Blake Griffin.

We got blown out by Charlotte, who was missing Gordon, Ball and Malik Monk. Maybe we should have kept Rozier and Wanamaker and dumped Smart and Kemba.

Then we lose to the fucking Thunder, who are doing everything they can to lose out. Their assemblage of G League players worked hard to give us that game (27 fucking turnovers) and yet, another loss.



Folks, if this roster is so bad that we can't win those games, I got news. We aren't competing any time soon with anybody, unless apparently if we are perfectly healthy, there is no outside influences (like COVID), all of our shots fall, and our opponents bounce the ball off their own foreheads 20 times a game.

I'm just depressed about this team. I was aggravated after the first 50 games, then they pulled me back in during April, then I had to watch this mess of a week or two on DVR as I caught up from vacation, and fuck...........

 

[Devizier]

Do you ever hold anyone accountable for anything? Do you ever have an actual take other than "Wait and see?"

Well, I won’t speak for DeJesus, but that’s pretty much my take. There’s just so many levels of information asymmetry between me and the people actually involved in running the team that I can’t really claim to know a better alternative.

There are of course obvious examples of coaches/front offices fucking up, and those are excepted.

 

[Bernie Carbohydrate]

Then we lose to the fucking Thunder, who are doing everything they can to lose out. Their assemblage of G League players worked hard to give us that game (27 fucking turnovers) and yet, another loss.

To be fair, you can't stop Luguentz Dort. You can only hope to contain him.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Well, I won’t speak for DeJesus, but that’s pretty much my take. There’s just so many levels of information asymmetry between me and the people actually involved in running the team that I can’t really claim to know a better alternative.

There are of course obvious examples of coaches/front offices fucking up, and those are excepted.

Doesn't leave much to discuss on a forum made for such things. All any of us can do is "wait and see."

 

[chilidawg]

Their shooting woes would be survivable if this team had an elite bench shooter like any number of other elite teams have, but they don't.

Well there is Evan Fournier, but as we all know he sucks.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Well there is Evan Fournier, but as we all know he sucks.

Snark aside, Fournier isn't an elite shooter. A healthy Fournier helps the team immensely though.

 

[lexrageorge]

Doesn't leave much to discuss on a forum made for such things. All any of us can do is "wait and see."

Your conclusion does not follow from the post you are responding to. We can certainly discuss whether the results so far with this team warrants Stevens firing. Just because some of us are willing to (a) consider the unusual circumstances of this season and roster; and (b) feel that the information we have as fans is incomplete does not mean those opinions are any less valid than those that think Stevens should be replaced.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Your conclusion does not follow from the post you are responding to. We can certainly discuss whether the results so far with this team warrants Stevens firing. Just because some of us are willing to (a) consider the unusual circumstances of this season and roster; and (b) feel that the information we have as fans is incomplete does not mean those opinions are any less valid than those that think Stevens should be replaced.

Nah but the person in question said this in the Langford thread. It's not even having an opinion.

The need to have a take is interesting. It really locks a person into an outcome rather than just accepting the future as it comes. At this point, the safest assumption about Langford is that we simply don't have enough game data to discuss what sort of player he might become. Beyond that, why are we rushing to make a call on him? Did we learn nothing from Nesmith being characterized as the next James Young (which still may prove to be true in some sense but may also be way off the mark)?

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Well, I won’t speak for DeJesus, but that’s pretty much my take. There’s just so many levels of information asymmetry between me and the people actually involved in running the team that I can’t really claim to know a better alternative.

There are of course obvious examples of coaches/front offices fucking up, and those are excepted.

This is where I reside in my sports fandom and I don't expect anyone else to understand or agree with it. But its the most intellectually honest approach. Its probably difficult for the Celtics to nail down exactly what is going wrong or presumably they would have fixed it. Its the ultimate in hubris for some outsider with a smartphone and SoSH account to think they suddenly know better.

And this doesn't rule out the possibility that smart-phone, SoSH-membering, coaching-savant person is right. Its just that your aptly put information asymmetry makes it extremely unlikely.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

This is where I reside in my sports fandom and I don't expect anyone else to understand or agree with it. But its the most intellectually honest approach. Its probably difficult for the Celtics to nail down exactly what is going wrong or presumably they would have fixed it. Its the ultimate in hubris for some outsider with a smartphone and SoSH account to think they suddenly know better.

And this doesn't rule out the possibility that smart-phone, SoSH-membering, coaching-savant person is right. Its just that your aptly put information asymmetry makes it extremely unlikely.

Then why are you even here discussing it at all?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

You can also hold Brad Stevens (partly) accountable and not fire him. Or you can just absolve him of any wrongdoing and blame covid, Ainge, the team.

There's plenty of blame to go around.

 

[radsoxfan]

Then why are you even here discussing it at all?

Yeah, there is something about message boarding that is inherently an attempt to analyze incomplete signal to come to (potentially imperfect) conclusions.

The other extreme is to simply discuss seasons and careers when they have concluded and we know what happened. That has its place, though is perhaps less interesting.

It’s entirely reasonable to keep perspective and realize we are looking at the tip of the iceberg, incomplete info, etc (especially with young players and mid season team evaluations).

But that doesn’t mean the incomplete info is without any usefulness or predictive value either. If a young player comes out and plays extremely well (say lamelo ball this year) and people think that’s a good omen for his future, we should be also willing to take an honest look at those who play particularly poorly and admit this could be a concern.

 

[nighthob]

To be fair, you can't stop Luguentz Dort. You can only hope to contain him.

It drives me nuts because I was on the Lu Dort bandwagon going into that draft and Boston had multiple #2s. And somehow after drafting the (barely) 5'11" Carsen Edwards they drafted someone even smaller at the end of the round, and Dort ended up on the Thunder as a FA. And they've since drafted two more backup PGs.

 

[Fishy1]

Yeah, Evan Fournier is not an elite shooter. He might shoot over 40% in a more limited role than he had in Orlando, I guess, but he's only just barely shot 40% on volume once since his rookie year.

My humble opinion is that the roster construction issue is perfectly valid and addresses the actual facts rather than our feelings about the team, which in my years on this message board has clouded the analysis of many of the members. It reminds me of the bullshit about how JD Drew didn't care because a bunch of fans didn't like the fact that he wasn't more demonstrative on the field. Nevermind how he actually played, he wasn't fist pumping like Derek Jeter!

The question is then, why are they still losing games? I can't get past the shooting, I'm sorry. And it's not just the threes. They're bad from everywhere. Go look through the top teams in the league and tell me how many of them have their third shooter by volume at sub 40% from the field for the majority of the season. Because that's what the Celtics have been up against with Kemba.

When I look up and down the roster and look at what other teams are fielding, I see now that there are tons of guys shooting great percentages on threes on volume, and the greatest concentration of those players is on the best teams. Go look at the Jazz roster -- five guys taking 5 or more 3 pointers a game at greater than 37%. The Celtics have two. That's it. Go ahead and include Pritchard, if you want, who's shooting 42% on 3.5 a game, and you've got a still dismal three.

The 76ers have spread their shooting out more, but there's six guys on that team shooting north of 37% on 3 or more attempts. The Celtics? Four, if you include Ojeleye, who's just south of the criteria. The Nets, by the same measure, have 5 guys (that excludes Harden, who's at just 36%, and Tyler Johnson, who hasn't played much). The Bucks have six. The Clippers have seven. The Suns only have four, but they score so many buckets at the rim and in the mid-range it doesn't matter. (Jae Crowder is leading that team in 3 point attempts at 38%.) If one or two players doesn't seem like a lot, well... it is, because the Celtics aren't very good around the basket, either. In fact, they're fucking dismal. I mean, imagine for a second if you had Marcus Smart taking 25 shots a game. Imagine the horror therein. Because that's basically what him and Kemba have been doing out there together. Meanwhile, our starting center for the majority of the season, TT, is shooting worse on two pointers than Tobias Harris.

I could go on like this! Go look at the bottom of the league if you're not convinced. The Pistons have just 2 shooters over 37%. The Magic had four until their three best players left. The Rockets have three. The Kings have three. The Timberwolves have three, or maybe four, if you include a middling case. The Wizards have exactly one. Is this the only reason they're at the bottom of the league? No. Is it a huge part of their problem? Yes.

I think we gravitate towards explanations that resort to effort or hustle or willpower or even courage because they match the frustration we're feeling. I do it too, but then, when you take a look at the numbers, you see this Celtics team has two score-first guys who are pretty good, not great, shooters, and very few guys who can chip in four or five threes -- and then they've got two guys taking up 25 shots a game who are shooting like third year Terry Rozier, a player who I wouldn't mind having right now...

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

A unicorn post. Thank you.

 

[mcpickl]

I’m ready. Let’s have this conversation. The signals are becoming a pattern. If your coach can’t at least get guys to play hard and with some passion, he’s either poor at his job, or has lost the team. I’m not sure which it is here, but it’s not working.

Let's not

 

[mostman]

Let's not

Too late.

 

[Fishy1]

edit: nevermind, I thought I was being insulted, and apparently I was being complimented!

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

edit: nevermind, I thought I was being insulted, and apparently I was being complimented!

To be clear, its maybe the best post in the entire thread.

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

Maybe the only truly fireable offense is if the rook doesn’t get good run over the home stretch of meaningful games and into the playoffs. Even if he struggles I’d rather he get the run over Semi and Grant.

 

[mauf]

Jayson Tatum is 32nd in the league in BPM, 37th in PER, and 64th in WS/48. Each metric has its flaws, but I don’t think anyone here would argue that JT has been a top-20 player this season.

If you knew this was how Tatum would perform, what would your expectations have been for this team? I would’ve expected about what we’ve gotten, maybe even slightly worse. The idea that this team was good hinged on Tatum being a star — we knew Jaylen wasn’t good enough to carry a team, and the depth was a concern even when we thought we’d get more from Langford and Nesmith.

Obviously, if you think Tatum’s bad year is due to him tuning out CBS, then one of them has to go, and CBS is infinitely easier to replace. But I see no reason to think that’s the case.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Yeah, Evan Fournier is not an elite shooter.

Evan Fournier is one of the best shooters in the league and if he - just for example - was playing with Steph Curry, he'd be shooting lights out (unless he got COVID, hah hah). His shooting %s aren't like some spot-up shooters because he's asked to do a ton more with the ball.

https://www.nba.com/magic/news/evan-fournier-one-nbas-most-underrated-shooters-20201224

The Cs are losing IMO because (i) they haven't been healthy and haven't been able to establish continuity on offense or defense; (ii) are burned out of BBall and (iii) they have a super young team for a contender. Every team has bad nights - we just see them because we don't follow other teams obsessively - but the Cs obviously have a problem with playing against teams they think they should beat.

Before we do a post-mortem of the season, I'd still like to see them healthy and at full strength. I thought I read somewhere that their current starting 5 - TL, JT, JB, KW, and MS - have played something like 220 possessions together all season.

Jayson Tatum is 32nd in the league in BPM, 37th in PER, and 64th in WS/48. Each metric has its flaws, but I don’t think anyone here would argue that JT has been a top-20 player this season.

He's absolutely been a top 20 player this season but only for stretches. I don't if anyone watched the segment in what I think was the OKC game where JT talked about what he looks at when he's trying to figure out whether to drive or past, but it was really interesting to hear about what he's trying to process - where his defender's outer leg is; whether another defender is a step too close to him or step too far away; and whether a third defender is coming over to help or not. All in a split second of time.

Defenses are loading up to stop him. Sometimes he's good at beating it and sometimes he's not. Maybe that's just because he's 23 and not because he's not a great NBA player.

 

[shoelace]

The 76ers have spread their shooting out more, but there's six guys on that team shooting north of 37% on 3 or more attempts. The Celtics? Four, if you include Ojeleye, who's just south of the criteria. The Nets, by the same measure, have 5 guys (that excludes Harden, who's at just 36%, and Tyler Johnson, who hasn't played much). The Bucks have six. The Clippers have seven. The Suns only have four, but they score so many buckets at the rim and in the mid-range it doesn't matter. (Jae Crowder is leading that team in 3 point attempts at 38%.) If one or two players doesn't seem like a lot, well... it is, because the Celtics aren't very good around the basket, either. In fact, they're fucking dismal. I mean, imagine for a second if you had Marcus Smart taking 25 shots a game. Imagine the horror therein. Because that's basically what him and Kemba have been doing out there together. Meanwhile, our starting center for the majority of the season, TT, is shooting worse on two pointers than Tobias Harris.

The 76ers, as a a team, are shooting .371 from 3 (11th in the NBA), the Celtics are shooting .370 (12th in the NBA). Some of these teams are significantly better 3 point shooting teams than the Celtics this season, but I'm not sure 3 point shooting is the issue. The Celtics are actually improved from last season where they shot .364 from 3, good for 13th place. The big difference between the 2019-2020 Celtics and the 2020-2021 Celtics is 3 point defense. They were 2nd in the NBA last year, holding opponents to a .340, now they're 18th, opponents are up to .371

This has been clear all year, they went from being an elite 3 point defense to middle of the pack. The offense doesn't feel like the issue to me, their struggles have everything to do with health and their inability to defend the three. Hard to win when you let the opponent outshoot you from three.

 

[lovegtm]

The 76ers, as a a team, are shooting .371 from 3 (11th in the NBA), the Celtics are shooting .370 (12th in the NBA). Some of these teams are significantly better 3 point shooting teams than the Celtics this season, but I'm not sure 3 point shooting is the issue. The Celtics are actually improved from last season where they shot .364 from 3, good for 13th place. The big difference between the 2019-2020 Celtics and the 2020-2021 Celtics is 3 point defense. They were 2nd in the NBA last year, holding opponents to a .340, now they're 18th, opponents are up to .371

This has been clear all year, they went from being an elite 3 point defense to middle of the pack. The offense doesn't feel like the issue to me, their struggles have everything to do with health and their inability to defend the three. Hard to win when you let the opponent outshoot you from three.

Yeah, I've been saying from almost day 1 that this team had defensive identity (not even performance) issues. The task after the season is to figure out why.

It seems obvious to me that if Brad+staff got (well deserved!) credit for instilling defensive identity in prior years, they should get some blame for that not happening this year. The big question is whether it's fixable, and that's the part I'm withholding judgement on.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

The 76ers, as a a team, are shooting .371 from 3 (11th in the NBA), the Celtics are shooting .370 (12th in the NBA). Some of these teams are significantly better 3 point shooting teams than the Celtics this season, but I'm not sure 3 point shooting is the issue. The Celtics are actually improved from last season where they shot .364 from 3, good for 13th place. The big difference between the 2019-2020 Celtics and the 2020-2021 Celtics is 3 point defense. They were 2nd in the NBA last year, holding opponents to a .340, now they're 18th, opponents are up to .371

This has been clear all year, they went from being an elite 3 point defense to middle of the pack. The offense doesn't feel like the issue to me, their struggles have everything to do with health and their inability to defend the three. Hard to win when you let the opponent outshoot you from three.

By rough measure, the Cs were 4th in ORtg and DRtg last year. Currently, they are 12th in ORtg and 13th in DRtg. One other thing that strikes me from a quick comparison is that last year, the Cs were 7th best in TOV% at 12.2; this year they are 19th at 12.7. Given how bad their transition defense has been, it would be no surprise that increased TOs lead to points at the other end.

Look, the Cs aren't as good as last year primarily because they lost a really efficient player and are replacing his minutes with, well, less than efficient players. They were undoubtedly counting on growth from the Js plus some internal growth to offset and while they have gotten some (TL and JB for two and JT at times), it hasn't been consistently on display because of injuries/COVID. Plus Marcus hasn't been as good as he was last year.

But if they get healthy and go on a run, the story of this season can still be written.

 

[shoelace]

Yeah, I've been saying from almost day 1 that this team had defensive identity (not even performance) issues. The task after the season is to figure out why.

It seems obvious to me that if Brad+staff got (well deserved!) credit for instilling defensive identity in prior years, they should get some blame for that not happening this year. The big question is whether it's fixable, and that's the part I'm withholding judgement on.

I agree with you, when you see the significant improvement on defense from a team like the Knicks season to season by bringing in a defensively minded coach, it's clear that coaching makes a difference on that end. That said, I don't think it's possible for us to quantify or really understand how much the condensed schedule, the fatigue from going deep into the playoffs last season, and their health issues have affected them. I think that's been a point DeJesus has been making consistently lately, and I think that point is well made.

To me, even more than the number of games lost to COVID-19 and injury, I think it's been the timing of the injuries and illnesses. Whenever this team starts looking like it might be able to get a few games with its top 7/8 players, invariably something happens like Fournier getting sick or Time Lord's knee starts bothering him. I tend to think team defense has something in common with offensive line play in the NFL, as you need everyone on the same page and executing consistently for it to work, and that's obviously made easier by having the same people play consistently. When the Celtics have literally had dozens of different starting lineups, it's difficult to get everyone on the same page, and I assume that can lead to frustration from guys who maybe don't feel like they can trust other guys on that end, which can lead to the lackluster effort we've seen at times. (And it's possible what I or we perceive as lackluster effort may just be fatigue, this is a weird season)

I think they can turn it around if they can get their top guys healthy for a handful of games and establish some rhythm. I'm not going to give up on that idea until I see a few games where all of Kemba, Smart, Brown, Tatum, TL, Pritchard, Fournier, TT and Nesmith/Langford play together.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I agree with you, when you see the significant improvement on defense from a team like the Knicks season to season by bringing in a defensively minded coach, it's clear that coaching makes a difference on that end. That said, I don't think it's possible for us to quantify or really understand how much the condensed schedule, the fatigue from going deep into the playoffs last season, and their health issues have affected them. I think that's been a point DeJesus has been making consistently lately, and I think that point is well made.

To me, even more than the number of games lost to COVID-19 and injury, I think it's been the timing of the injuries and illnesses. Whenever this team starts looking like it might be able to get a few games with its top 7/8 players, invariably something happens like Fournier getting sick or Time Lord's knee starts bothering him. I tend to think team defense has something in common with offensive line play in the NFL, as you need everyone on the same page and executing consistently for it to work, and that's obviously made easier by having the same people play consistently. When the Celtics have literally had dozens of different starting lineups, it's difficult to get everyone on the same page, and I assume that can lead to frustration from guys who maybe don't feel like they can trust other guys on that end, which can lead to the lackluster effort we've seen at times. (And it's possible what I or we perceive as lackluster effort may just be fatigue, this is a weird season)

I think they can turn it around if they can get their top guys healthy for a handful of games and establish some rhythm. I'm not going to give up on that idea until I see a few games where all of Kemba, Smart, Brown, Tatum, TL, Pritchard, Fournier, TT and Nesmith/Langford play together.

Thank you to both you as well as Fishy for excellent posts.

I will add that in our collective haste to avoid stepping on that damn razor Occam left right in our path about the mitigating factors for this team's struggles (and again, there are other seemingly very talented teams with similar records to Boston), we consistently downplay the value of practice, especially for a Stevens coached team. Entering this year, the Celtics had been in the top ten defenses in the league by most metrics for four out of Stevens seven seasons in Boston, including the past three years in a row.

Maybe all these buzzwords like "effort" etc may well be an issue but they are impossible to quantify in terms of its impact - furthermore, its hard to see how anyone here can measure these things accurately. Instead we have actual information that suggests the Celtics may not have just had to struggle with health amid a pretty top heavy roster but also might suffer in terms of their execution because newer players (young and vets) haven't had much opportunity to learn their system.

 

[Fishy1]

Evan Fournier is one of the best shooters in the league and if he - just for example - was playing with Steph Curry, he'd be shooting lights out (unless he got COVID, hah hah). His shooting %s aren't like some spot-up shooters because he's asked to do a ton more with the ball.

https://www.nba.com/magic/news/evan-fournier-one-nbas-most-underrated-shooters-20201224

The Cs are losing IMO because (i) they haven't been healthy and haven't been able to establish continuity on offense or defense; (ii) are burned out of BBall and (iii) they have a super young team for a contender. Every team has bad nights - we just see them because we don't follow other teams obsessively - but the Cs obviously have a problem with playing against teams they think they should beat.

Before we do a post-mortem of the season, I'd still like to see them healthy and at full strength. I thought I read somewhere that their current starting 5 - TL, JT, JB, KW, and MS - have played something like 220 possessions together all season.


He's absolutely been a top 20 player this season but only for stretches. I don't if anyone watched the segment in what I think was the OKC game where JT talked about what he looks at when he's trying to figure out whether to drive or past, but it was really interesting to hear about what he's trying to process - where his defender's outer leg is; whether another defender is a step too close to him or step too far away; and whether a third defender is coming over to help or not. All in a split second of time.

Defenses are loading up to stop him. Sometimes he's good at beating it and sometimes he's not. Maybe that's just because he's 23 and not because he's not a great NBA player.

I don't disagree, but like, everyone would shoot better around Curry. And I also said I wouldn't be surprised if his percentages went up on a better team. As for best shooters in the league -- he's very good, but he's not great. He's been on one of the worst teams in the league for years and years and he's never even scored twenty points a game. He's never taken the kind of volume the best shooters do and he's never shot the percentages they do.

Nonetheless, I think we're basically in agreement -- I too am excited to see what difference Fournier makes for this team once he's healthy, and as Pritchard hopefully starts to emerge as a sniper. Fournier's bout with COVID is consistent with what we've seen with other players -- when they come back they not only look lethargic, but they struggled to stay on the floor and compete. I think that's probably why Langford has looked a little slow at times, too. We saw it with Tatum. Remembering too how bad Kendrick Nunn looked when he got back last year.

One more thing with Fournier: part of the problem is when we speak of elite, I'm not sure we're talking about the same thing. Socrates would probably have a fit if he saw us playing with these different definitions. When I say elite, I'm talking 40% plus season after season on high volume threes. Fournier has never, ever done that. He's had the keys to that Orlando offense and has posted several seasons below 35% from three. He's good. He's not great. Khris Middleton, Malcom Brogdan, the Curry bros, Ingles, Paul George: those guys are elite, and are very frequently asked to create their own shots. I mean, Fournier has basically the same percentage of unassisted threes as luminaries like Alec Burks, Joe Ingles, Will Barton, LaMelo, and a little less than guys like Bradley Beal, and far fewer than the elite guys on this list -- Middleton, Brogdon, Paul George, Tatum, etc. Joe Harris and Danny Green are obviously men without handles and shoot the vast majority of their threes assisted. Fournier shooting more of those sorts of 3's will help, I totally agree. All these stats are per NBA.com

The 76ers, as a a team, are shooting .371 from 3 (11th in the NBA), the Celtics are shooting .370 (12th in the NBA). Some of these teams are significantly better 3 point shooting teams than the Celtics this season, but I'm not sure 3 point shooting is the issue. The Celtics are actually improved from last season where they shot .364 from 3, good for 13th place. The big difference between the 2019-2020 Celtics and the 2020-2021 Celtics is 3 point defense. They were 2nd in the NBA last year, holding opponents to a .340, now they're 18th, opponents are up to .371

This has been clear all year, they went from being an elite 3 point defense to middle of the pack. The offense doesn't feel like the issue to me, their struggles have everything to do with health and their inability to defend the three. Hard to win when you let the opponent outshoot you from three.

This is a very good point, but while I didn't address this before, the better defense wouldn't make them elite. I mean, we have to account for context here as well, which is that even once they're fully healthy, the Celtics have been a middling team on offense. Remember here I'm only referring to what they've been so far: I understand a healthy Fournier will make a huge difference, and maybe even make them competitive with the best teams in the league. But for most of the season, the Celtics ostensibly best players are all guards and wings. To be a mediocre team of shooters puts them right where they in fact are -- middle of the pack.

Better defense -- and I agree with Dejesus and others that better defense would be helped simply by being healthy, and not run down, and with more practice -- would give them a better record, but I'm not sure it would make them competitive with championship teams this year. That doesn't mean they wouldn't be more fun to watch or that I wouldn't enjoy rooting for them -- just that they'd remain what they've been. Eastern conference finalists, maybe. Upstarts.

The bottom line is that most great teams surround great players with shooting. They don't have Lebron James or Anthony Davis or Joel Embiid, who can get you a bucket at any time around the basket, so it's even more vital that they be excellent from three point distance. Losing Hayward was a major blow in that regard, even if he was limited as a Celtic.

I'm merely suggesting that I am not looking forward to Kemba and Smart taking a combined 25 shots a game in the playoffs. I hope Fournier will lighten that load substantially. If he does, and the Celtics are locked in defensively, and Rob Williams can ramp up to 25-30 minutes a game, they can go very far.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I will add that in our collective haste to avoid stepping on that damn razor Occam left right in our path about the mitigating factors for this team's struggles (and again, there are other seemingly very talented teams with similar records to Boston)...

Exactly. To those calling for headzz, I ask where are the calls for Spoelstra and Nurse to be whacked.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Exactly. To those calling for headzz, I ask where are the calls for Spoelstra and Nurse to be whacked.

I'm guessing they are talking about just that on Heat message boards.

If you need complete information to discuss anything, these forums are pointless.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I don't disagree, but like, everyone would shoot better around Curry. And I also said I wouldn't be surprised if his percentages went up on a better team. As for best shooters in the league -- he's very good, but he's not great. He's been on one of the worst teams in the league for years and years and he's never even scored twenty points a game. He's never taken the kind of volume the best shooters do and he's never shot the percentages they do.

Well, here's one list of the "best shooters" in the NBA that attempts to rank players based on both accuracy and efficiency: View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2880168-ranking-the-nbas-most-and-least-valuable-shooters-in-2019-20
.

Fournier is 17th. He's behind guys like Ben McLemore and Davis Bertans and Bjelica, who as far as I know shoot mostly on spot ups (formula probably should try to separate assisted shooting versus unassisted shooting but that's another thread).

If Fournier is 17th in any ranking of shooting in the NBA I'd consider him "one of the best shooters in the league" but you may have a different definition.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I'm guessing they are talking about just that on Heat message boards.

If you need complete information to discuss anything, these forums are pointless.

Yeah, but what do you think? Should Riley be looking at Spoelstra? Should ownership be looking at Riley?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Well, here's one list of the "best shooters" in the NBA that attempts to rank players based on both accuracy and efficiency: View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2880168-ranking-the-nbas-most-and-least-valuable-shooters-in-2019-20
.

Fournier is 17th. He's behind guys like Ben McLemore and Davis Bertans and Bjelica, who as far as I know shoot mostly on spot ups (formula probably should try to separate assisted shooting versus unassisted shooting but that's another thread).

If Fournier is 17th in any ranking of shooting in the NBA I'd consider him "one of the best shooters in the league" but you may have a different definition.

You picked one list that backed up your claim and went with it. Also posted the wrong link. Fournier is not one of the best shooters in the league and he is not elite. He's still very good.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Yeah, but what do you think? Should Riley be looking at Spoelstra? Should ownership be looking at Riley?

I don't pay enough attention to the Heat to know. Maybe, maybe not. I would say smart ownership should consider every single option, even if it's just to dismiss it in 0.2 seconds.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

You picked one list that backed up your claim and went with it. Also posted the wrong link. Fournier is not one of the best shooters in the league and he is not elite. He's still very good.

Didn't post the wrong link; you have to click through to see the full list.

We'll have to agree to disagree. I think Fournier is one of the best shooters in the league and is certainly elite but he can do other things so he doesn't sit back and just shoot open 3s all day. Particularly on that Magic team - and I admit I didn't watch them much this year but did watch them a bit when they made their run to the playoffs - EF had to take some tough shots late in the shot clock because it was either him or Vuc.

As Fishy said, I'm excited to see him take the shots that otherwise would have gone to Semi or GW and I think his percentages will reflect that. Assuming the Cs are ever completely healthy.

edit: I also agree with one more thing that @Fishy1 said - that he and I are certainly not talking about "elite" and "best shooters" the same way.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Didn't post the wrong link; you have to click through to see the full list.

We'll have to agree to disagree. I think Fournier is one of the best shooters in the league and is certainly elite but he can do other things so he doesn't sit back and just shoot open 3s all day. Particularly on that Magic team - and I admit I didn't watch them much this year but did watch them a bit when they made their run to the playoffs - EF had to take some tough shots late in the shot clock because it was either him or Vuc.

As Fishy said, I'm excited to see him take the shots that otherwise would have gone to Semi or GW and I think his percentages will reflect that. Assuming the Cs are ever completely healthy.

Do you think he's a better shooter than Brown or Tatum or at their level?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Do you think he's a better shooter than Brown or Tatum or at their level?

Just in terms of shooting, and taking this season as a whole, I think he's a better shooter than JB but not as good as JT. With regards to JB, over his last 8 games, he's hitting 47.5% on 8 3PA a game so we may have to recalibrate what we think of JB's shooting in the next couple of years.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Just in terms of shooting, and taking this season as a whole, I think he's a better shooter than JB but not as good as JT. With regards to JB, over his last 8 games, he's hitting 47.5% on 8 3PA a game so we may have to recalibrate what we think of JB's shooting in the next couple of years.

Over the last 2 years, Brown is hitting 39.4% of his 3s on 6.4 attempts a game (287/728). His career mark is up to .380.

For his career, he's hitting 45.1% of his 10-16ft shots and 40.0% of his 16-3. Get ready to recalibrate.

 

[lovegtm]

Yeah, but what do you think? Should Riley be looking at Spoelstra? Should ownership be looking at Riley?

It would depend on the reasons for underperformance, and I don't follow those teams closely enough to have a good feel for that.

The Celtics underperformance is mostly from lack of execution/effort on the defensive end. It's pretty similar to 2018-19, although that team was probably more talented. At that time, the situation solved itself: Kyrie left, and everything got back on track.

This time, there's the hard question of whether lack of summer+practice time is causing the issues.

God forbid someone try to make a prediction about the future based on incomplete information, but mine is:
1. Brad is not fired over the summer, regardless of the season's results.
2. There are major roster shakeups.
3. If the team has the same problems after ~20-30 games next year, he gets fired.

 

[lovegtm]

If you need complete information to discuss anything, these forums are pointless.

To be fair, people who have played significant amounts of poker are MUCH more comfortable acting/analyzing in incomplete information environments.

I'd go so far as to say that information is always incomplete, and that trying to avoid that through waiting is futile.