The Plan For the #1, er, #3 Overall Pick?

Fishy1

Head Mason
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Nov 10, 2006
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The reporter who tweeted about Butler is Adam Zagoria who is very reputable in the basketball world. If he's hearing from his sources that Butler may be in play then it's not being made up in thin air.
Sorry, I misread the quote at first blush. I'll lose the snark. That said, it's still hard for me to believe Danny would go after Butler at this stage.
 

cathat

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Jun 9, 2017
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We already have more picks than we know what to do with. We finally get the #1 and now we trade it for more picks we can't use? Sometimes the obvious choice is the best one.
 

djbayko

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If it isn't #3, Philly '18 and Lakers '18, I don't do that deal.
But even this is risky, isn't it? I don't think Ball will turn out great, but if I'm wrong, he could be the spark plug the Lakers need to reach 40-win territory. Ditto for the 76ers.

If we know those pics are lottery, then I'm ecstatic. The '18 draft class is already strong, and if the league removes the minimum age rule, then it will be even better. But so much can happen in one year.
 

RedOctober3829

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Sorry, I misread the quote at first blush. I'll lose the snark. That said, it's still hard for me to believe Danny would go after Butler at this stage.
If his big move is just Jimmy Butler then yes it doesn't make sense. Butler alone doesn't move the needle to get over the hump against Cleveland. Now, if it's one move in a series of big moves, then I'm all for it.

After I thought about this situation more: the obvious choice is to draft Fultz and add Hayward, right? I think everybody can agree. BUT, why would Danny be so aggressive in moving the #1 pick so far out from the draft? He must know that he's close to a major blockbuster and knows what additional assets he needs to acquire in order to make it happen.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
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That's the thing. I don't think Philly touches a deal like that (they'd probably just trade for stars with all that instead) so we're left with less if this goes through.
Though they would run into the same issues Boston has... not many stars are available, and of those who might be many are flight risks. If they like many people see Fultz as a franchise changing player, they are looking at a core of Fultz, Simmons, Embiid, three of the highest ceiling young guys in the league, all under team control into the next decade. It's especially attractive to them because Jackson/Tatum/Fox/Isaac are all pretty shaky fits for their roster with that #3 pick, Fultz is a great fit.
 

MillarTime

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So is the plan to take Jackson and then trade players/picks for Butler and then sign Hayward or (more likely) Griffin?
 

JCizzle

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My impression from listening to Lowe is that the #3 and a future 1st is the major part of the deal. I feel like there would be more in the package than that.
I guess it depends what else and what pick. Adding Fultz, Simmons and Embiid to that team makes those Sixers picks not overly enticing to me.
 

bosockboy

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Ainge as he sits already has the best collection of assets in league history considering the C's are a conference finalist as is. He doesn't need more assets, if he does this he has a superstar deal lined up plus a pretty good idea he gets Hayward also.
 

Cellar-Door

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But even this is risky, isn't it? I don't think Ball will turn out great, but if I'm wrong, he could be the spark plug the Lakers need to reach 40-win territory. Ditto for the 76ers.

If we know those pics are lottery, then I'm ecstatic. The '18 draft class is already strong, and if the league removes the minimum age rule, then it will be even better. But so much can happen in one year.
What rookie since Lebron has made his team significantly better? If it was a 2019 pick you might worry, but rookies are usually significant negative value, PGs particularly usually take a while to develop.
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
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Nov 10, 2006
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If his big move is just Jimmy Butler then yes it doesn't make sense. Butler alone doesn't move the needle to get over the hump against Cleveland. Now, if it's one move in a series of big moves, then I'm all for it.

After I thought about this situation more: the obvious choice is to draft Fultz and add Hayward, right? I think everybody can agree. BUT, why would Danny be so aggressive in moving the #1 pick so far out from the draft? He must know that he's close to a major blockbuster and knows what additional assets he needs to acquire in order to make it happen.
I think - hope! - this is likely. And I'll be disappointed if it's just a flip for the #3 and a pick that next year might be 5-13.
 

Dahabenzapple2

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Only way he should ever trade the pick is if he is getting Anthony Davis

The 76'ers & Lakers 2018 Picks might not even be top 10. How can you count on any of the 2-3 teams bottoming out when they are not tanking? Too much uncertainly. As someone said Danny CANNOT be wrong. If Fultz is Kyrie with defense.....
 

MillarTime

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Ainge as he sits already has the best collection of assets in league history considering the C's are a conference finalist as is. He doesn't need more assets, if he does this he has a superstar deal lined up plus a pretty good idea he gets Hayward also.
Agreed. This HAS to be the case.
 

Auger34

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If this trade doesn't include a minimum of the 3, the Lakers pick and the Kings pick it is a fucking disaster. So help me God if they want the 3 to take Josh Jackson. The last thing this team needs is another all defense guy who can't hit a goddamn jumper.
And if the end game of this is to trade for Jimmy Butler then it's even worse. In fact, the only way any of these scenarios makes sense is if they are gearing up to trade for Anthony Davis or somewhat of that ilk
 

djbayko

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What rookie since Lebron has made his team significantly better? If it was a 2019 pick you might worry, but rookies are usually significant negative value, PGs particularly usually take a while to develop.
I'm not saying the rookies would do it all on their own. I assume teams are trying to improve each offseason, team chemistry changes, and players do develop. If you're telling me those picks next year are lottery, of course I do that deal. #3 this year plus 3 lotteries next year. I just don't think that's a safe assumption.
 

MillarTime

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bosockboy

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The latest from Steve Kyler.

Steve Kyler‏Verified account @stevekylerNBA 4m4 minutes ago
So hearing the three this year, a future 76ers first and Lakers 2018 on the table to Celtics for the number one... thats a ton of value
If "future" is 2018 it's probably worth it. The further away it gets the more the value decreases. It's possible that any and all of those three 2018 picks (assuming best case), PLUS Jackson could be moved for an uber superstar.
 

west12

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Jul 1, 2012
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It would be really hard to turn that down. Both future picks are likely top 6. If it happens I wouldn't rule out another swap (something like 3 plus a player to Sacramento for 5 and 10). Danny loves assets.
 

Cellar-Door

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The really interesting thing to me is everyone assuming that Jackson would be the pick at 3. I wouldn't bet on it. I know he's very much an Ainge type of player, but Tatum would have to be in play for a team that could really use multiple additional scorers.
 

smastroyin

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The Butler thing actually does make sense. I realize it will not make sense for people that see no point to competing now, but it is easy to see a scenario where Ainge is asking on Butler, Chicago says the number 1, Ainge thinks that's too much, then says what if I could get you the number 3. So now it's #3 and whoever for Butler, and #1 for #3 plus future picks. So Danny gets the guy he wants in Butler, and gets something for winning the lotto in the extra picks.

Butler is attractive because he's better than Hayward (argue all you want, but it's true by almost any measure) and on a cheap contract for the next couple years. I think it is pretty easy for the Celtics to be under the cap going into next summer, and it is also possible for them to add some pieces during the season...or they could sign KO. With Hayward, you are pretty much locked in with no flexibility.

The downside even with the long game is that there is no chance a healthy Butler doesn't test FA after two years...and almost no way an injured Butler doesn't exercise his $20ish million option for that third year. And of course, the risk you are giving up a really great player in Fultz, of course.

To be fair, where I'm coming from is a place where if the C's had ended up #3 or 4 I wouldn't have minded at all seeing the pick go for Butler (even #2, presuming Fultz went #1)

This is not to say it is what I would do, just that I can easily see the "sense" in it.
 

DJnVa

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Dec 16, 2010
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Zach Lowe on SC: "Could be one of 2 things or both. If you can get Jackson at 3 why not get more to do it or if you need more picks for Butler you do it. It's an enormous gamble. I would say it looks very likely to happen. The terms are essentially agreed to. Right now it's strictly picks. It's the #3 and a future 1st."
Remember at the trade deadline the word was the lottery pick was hard to deal because we didn't know the true value? It could be #1, could be #5, etc.

So, now we know, and we're trading it away for the chance we get lucky again next year?

They must REALLY like next year's draft.
 
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Cellar-Door

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What if the lakers take Jackson and this really backfires?
you don't make this trade if you don't have a top tier of at least 3 players. This isn't about getting Jackson, if they loved Jackson that much they would just take him #1. They'll either take BPA at 3 or trade it.
 

DJnVa

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What rookie since Lebron has made his team significantly better? If it was a 2019 pick you might worry, but rookies are usually significant negative value, PGs particularly usually take a while to develop.
Fultz and Simmons would be pretty good.

But I thought the idea was Simmons would handle the ball? Maybe Philly actually really wants Jackson. Hopefully. Please.
 

Luis Taint

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If this deal turns out to be #3, '18 Lakers and '19, I guess I'm OK with it. If Danny somehow can turn that into Jackson, Heyward and Butler I would be estatic and a top 4 pick next year.
 

Ed Hillel

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Is this going to end up as badly as the time they passed on Bender and Hield?
 

tbrown_01923

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Just on the Butler angle, perhaps Griffin as a FA followed by a trade for Butler? Wait - they need to shed salary for a max, and then still have salary to move for butler... Maybe too tricky
 

DJnVa

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If this deal turns out to be #3, '18 Lakers and '19, I guess I'm OK with it. If Danny somehow can turn that into Jackson, Heyward and Butler I would be estatic and a top 4 pick next year.
He can't turn it into Jackson and Butler.