The Plan For the #1, er, #3 Overall Pick?

Beomoose

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He sounds like a girlfriend who's dumping you and giving you a litany of shitty excuses. At this point, his modus operandi is becoming a minus in my book. He should just have said that he's not interested in the Celtics for the actual reasons we have discussed in this thread. I don't think it would have hurt him as much.
Yeah he should probably just not talk about it anymore lest he end up in Teixeira-land.
 

bosockboy

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If DA believes LBJ is heading west next summer, does that change the calculus on how to handle this pick? As in, if we only have another season of the Cavs to deal with, is it better to draft and keep Tatum as opposed to trying to acquire Butler with the pick?
 

bowiac

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Pretty sure Shea is the guy who eliminates the players worst performances and goes off of their best.
That's right. I can't find a writeup offhand, but essentially he looks at peak performance, disregarding your clunkers. He got some play around SoSH a few years ago because his model was the highest on Terry Rozier, RJ Hunter, and Jordan Mickey (14th, 12th, and 15th respectively), so it seemed like the Celtics were doing something pretty similar to him in their draft evaluations.

His model is not especially well regarded in public NBA analytics circles, although people do like it cause it's a bit off-consensus from other analytics models (which tend to congregate on the same players).

As far as that specific CPR projection of 15, he also has Caleb Swanigan ranked 3rd this year, with a CPR of 14, which is significantly higher than any prospect in 2015 or 2016 either. I'm fine with a model ranking Tatum high, but the specific focus on "no prospect with this score has ever had a bust" doesn't seem tell me much, unless I guess you think Swanigan is also a historic prospect, better than Towns, Ingram, Simmons, etc...
 

Schnerres

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I can´t follow this. Someone can correct/explain this to me please...
-Celtics have Pick No.1
-Celtics work out (only?) Fultz
-Celtics trade top pick to Philly
-Ainge says, they are happy with pick No.3 and think he can pick his favourite player at No.3 (instead of overreaching for that guy at No.1)
-who of the likely Top5 picks worked out for the Celtics? No Ball, No Jackson, no Isaac, no Fox, no everybody except Tatum, correct?
-Now I read Jacksons words from that ESPN article:
"They did a little bit of moving around with their pick," Jackson said. "I felt like they made it pretty clear who they were going to draft with the No. 1 pick, so I didn't really feel like it was worth either of our times for me to work out with them. But then when they, you know, did the flip and went to No. 3, by then it was too late. Okay, everybody expected Ainge to pick Fultz, but he worked out Tatum and more importantly: he made the trade. So obviously it wasn´t "pretty clear" who they will pick. WTH does he mean.

Is Tatum the only one in the lottery who worked out (besides Fultz) for the Celtics?
 

LondonSox

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Ignoring Jackson (I think he's more likely to be an all around bust than either of Tatum or Isaac), but why is it riskier to bank on Isaac's development than Tatum's? I mean, Tatum may be a scorer, but he's got a long way to go defensively before, with serious questions about whether he can ever get there. Of the two, Isaac seems to me like the safer choice, with Tatum being the more high upside guy.
I agree with this. I think Isaac would be great on the Celtics. Projects to shoot and fits the defensive mold wonderfully
You can't keep obsessing about mentality but it it's at the cost of shooting you end up with smart, brown, Jackson. Who are all similar.

Jackson is a huge bust risk to me. As I've said before. I was terrified of the sixers taking him at 3.
Tatum has upside but I worry he's a good at everything great at nothing guy which is not what you need.
He's never going to be a star defensively with his stiffness, and he's not going to be penetrating easily with his athletic ability. So he HAS to shoot, and I think he could but I would worry about Tatum being another good player non star. Which isnt what you need.

Isaac will be a useful role player defensively if he can be efficient mid to low usage guy that is a guy who can play. He brown smart etc can switch he could even play small 5 as he fills out.
 

RedOctober3829

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I can´t follow this. Someone can correct/explain this to me please...
-Celtics have Pick No.1
-Celtics work out (only?) Fultz
-Celtics trade top pick to Philly
-Ainge says, they are happy with pick No.3 and think he can pick his favourite player at No.3 (instead of overreaching for that guy at No.1)
-who of the likely Top5 picks worked out for the Celtics? No Ball, No Jackson, no Isaac, no Fox, no everybody except Tatum, correct?
-Now I read Jacksons words from that ESPN article:
"They did a little bit of moving around with their pick," Jackson said. "I felt like they made it pretty clear who they were going to draft with the No. 1 pick, so I didn't really feel like it was worth either of our times for me to work out with them. But then when they, you know, did the flip and went to No. 3, by then it was too late. Okay, everybody expected Ainge to pick Fultz, but he worked out Tatum and more importantly: he made the trade. So obviously it wasn´t "pretty clear" who they will pick. WTH does he mean.

Is Tatum the only one in the lottery who worked out (besides Fultz) for the Celtics?
They worked out a lot of the lottery players. Off the top of my head I remember them working out Fultz, Issac, Monk, Markkanen, Tatum twice, and Smith. Not sure about Fox.
 

bakahump

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"Parents please encourage the players and respect the coaches and officials. None of your kids are going to grow up to play in the NBA."
 

Minneapolis Millers

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I confess that I didn't know that that kind of pizza was "STL style." I just thought it was crappy.

But I wouldn't necessarily let it disqualify Tatum. He's young and can learn...
 

nolasoxfan

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>>St. Louis-style pizza is a distinct type of pizza popular in the Midwestern American city of St. Louis, Missouri[1] and surrounding areas. The definitive characteristics of St. Louis-style pizza are a very thin cracker like crust made without yeast, the common (but not universal) use of Provel processed cheese, and pizzas cut into squares or rectangles instead of wedges.<<

Sounds awful...
 

HowBoutDemSox

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DraftExpress write-up comparing Tatum, Isaac, Jackson: http://www.draftexpress.com/article/comparing-and-contrasting-the-prospects-of-tatum-jackson-and-isaac-6062/. You can guess the conclusion, but getting there is fun.

P.S. Saw somewhere that Tatum has put on ten pounds on his frame this past year so he's got a better likelihood of filling out to play 4s than Isaac and Jackson.
Thought this was also a good breackdown of Tatum v. Isaac based on their matchups this year:
http://fansided.com/2017/03/02/jayson-tatum-jonathan-isaac-matchup-breakdown/
 

Cellar-Door

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I confess that I didn't know that that kind of pizza was "STL style." I just thought it was crappy.

But I wouldn't necessarily let it disqualify Tatum. He's young and can learn...
Take Stale saltines , cover in ketchup, add a kraft single (important, do not remove plastic). Put in a toaster oven. Congrats you have made STL style pizza
 

Cesar Crespo

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DraftExpress write-up comparing Tatum, Isaac, Jackson: http://www.draftexpress.com/article/comparing-and-contrasting-the-prospects-of-tatum-jackson-and-isaac-6062/. You can guess the conclusion, but getting there is fun.

P.S. Saw somewhere that Tatum has put on ten pounds on his frame this past year so he's got a better likelihood of filling out to play 4s than Isaac and Jackson.
Doesn't surprise me re: Tatum. His frame looks like it could add considerably more looking at his shoulders.
 

Seels

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I truly don't understand the obsession with Jackson. Why is he even a top 5 pick? I'd rather have Tatum or Ball or even guys like Monk over him.
 

the moops

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Nothing worse than pizza cut into squares. So dumb. I never know how much pizza I have eaten.

I wish Celts could move back a couple spots and pick up an asset. I am not sold on Tatum, and would love the upside of Isaac.
 

RedOctober3829

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"One NBA exec told the Herald that Ainge would love to find a way to get North Carolina State point guard Dennis Smith Jr., who isn’t rated as high as the third overall pick. Another said the Celts were looking at perhaps moving down in the draft again and picking up another asset for their trouble.

Meanwhile, to give you an idea of how surreal this has all become, a coach from yet another team said that if you asked 10 different clubs what Ainge wanted, you’d get 10 different answers. “We call him the minister of disinformation,” he said. “He’s putting a lot of stuff out there.”

Most sources still believe that if the Celtics are still at 3 Thursday night, their choice will come down to either Kansas’ Josh Jackson or Duke’s Jayson Tatum, both 6-foot-8 forwards — and Florida State’s Jonathan Isaac has event crept into the speculation. But Smith enjoyed his recent workout for the Celts."

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/celtics/2017/06/danny_ainge_keeping_everyone_guessing_on_eve_of_nba_draft
 

djbayko

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"One NBA exec told the Herald that Ainge would love to find a way to get North Carolina State point guard Dennis Smith Jr., who isn’t rated as high as the third overall pick. Another said the Celts were looking at perhaps moving down in the draft again and picking up another asset for their trouble.

Meanwhile, to give you an idea of how surreal this has all become, a coach from yet another team said that if you asked 10 different clubs what Ainge wanted, you’d get 10 different answers. “We call him the minister of disinformation,” he said. “He’s putting a lot of stuff out there.”

Most sources still believe that if the Celtics are still at 3 Thursday night, their choice will come down to either Kansas’ Josh Jackson or Duke’s Jayson Tatum, both 6-foot-8 forwards — and Florida State’s Jonathan Isaac has event crept into the speculation. But Smith enjoyed his recent workout for the Celts."

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/celtics/2017/06/danny_ainge_keeping_everyone_guessing_on_eve_of_nba_draft
If Danny is using deception to his advantage, I love it. However, he could be 100% truthful to all of these clubs and still have them come away with the same impression. The Celtics are in an enviable position of being competitors now while also looking to build for 2-3 years down the road. He has incredible flexibility in terms of potential moves and should absolutely be tailoring his needs and proposals to the strengths and weaknesses of each individual franchise. Keep pecking away until you find a sweat heart of a deal.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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And "foodstuff" is being generous. I guess there's a reason Wisconsin makes it almost exclusively for the STL market - no one else would eat it.
 

Kid T

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Just heard (sorry forgot the source but it may have been a podcast on SI) an analyst call Isaac a 6-8 version of Marcus Smart. Mentioned that it would be nearly impossible for the Cs to play them on the floor together given their offensive limitations.

It's very hard to dominate the game if you aren't an offensive threat. Guys like Smart are great glue guys off the bench, but I believe those are what you look for late in the draft. In the lottery, I think you have to take the sure thing (not unlike Belichick's philosophy of sure things in the 1st, and gambles in the 2nd).

RE: Shea - it reminds me of an old Boston Globe profile of one of Ainge's secret weapons - a phrenologist (they study the shape of heads)
 

Cesar Crespo

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Why couldn't you play them on the court together? Isaac was a good 3 point shooter and FT shooter in college so he should provide spacing.
 

jmm57

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He also measured 6-10.5 at 2016 hoop summit with a 7-1 wingspan and 9 foot standing reach. 6-8 is pretty disingenuous.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Just heard (sorry forgot the source but it may have been a podcast on SI) an analyst call Isaac a 6-8 version of Marcus Smart. Mentioned that it would be nearly impossible for the Cs to play them on the floor together given their offensive limitations.

It's very hard to dominate the game if you aren't an offensive threat. Guys like Smart are great glue guys off the bench, but I believe those are what you look for late in the draft. In the lottery, I think you have to take the sure thing (not unlike Belichick's philosophy of sure things in the 1st, and gambles in the 2nd).

RE: Shea - it reminds me of an old Boston Globe profile of one of Ainge's secret weapons - a phrenologist (they study the shape of heads)
Why couldn't you play them on the court together? Isaac was a good 3 point shooter and FT shooter in college so he should provide spacing.
Isaac is also 6'11'', not 6'8''. Sounds more like the description of Jackson than Isaac?
 

jmm57

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Good call on that sounding like Jackson rather than Isaac. The demeanor would fit too. Isaac doesn't seem even remotely comparable to Smart in personality.
 

pjheff

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So DA controls this. Because if everyone wants Jackson, DA doesn't. But he does hold #3...
Are we sure DA doesn't want Jackson?

"I've picked Danny's brain for years," the general manager said. "Jackson is an Ainge player all the way. Tough, athletic, long, versatile, elite motor. If he's keeping the pick, Jackson just to me, far and away, is the most Celtics-type player for them to draft. From all my conversations with them, I'm convinced they'll take Jackson No. 1."

http://insider.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/19641152/latest-nba-draft-intel-boston-celtics-los-angeles-lakers-lonzo-ball-josh-jackson-more
 
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Steve Dillard

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Am I wrong to read Woj's tweet as jackson's agent trying to create a appearance of market for him at 4 because he knows 1-3 are gone and he doesn't want free fall with rumors about his short wingspan?
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Curious to hear from those who know more/have watched more of Jackson, what role does he project in a half court offense in today's NBA? Is he a roll man on a pick and roll? Hope his shot translates and he can stretch the flour and create driving lanes? Everything I've read about Tatum says he's a player who does better with the ball in his hands (iso or posting up smaller wings) with the hope his high FG% means his midrange and outside shooting can also be a factor, just trying to get a sense of how Jackson might fit in or who his comp on that end of the floor might be.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Am I wrong to read Woj's tweet as jackson's agent trying to create a appearance of market for him at 4 because he knows 1-3 are gone and he doesn't want free fall with rumors about his short wingspan?
Since it cited "league executives", I read it as the Celtics trying to gin up the market for the #3. Gonna be a fun day...
 

bowiac

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DannyDarwinism

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Oof. Freshman Josh Jackson is seven months older than Sophmore John Collins. Might be good to factor something like that in their evaluations.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Gotta say, Phoenix can put together a pretty good offer for Porzingis with #4, even without Booker involved. We could beat them in draft picks, but they could take Noah's contract and supply them with 2 or 3 young guys like Bender, Chriss or Warren to build around.
 

Wilco's Last Fan

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Sorry to get off track - How reliable is DraftExpress for predraft measurements? This seems to indcate that Josh Jackson's standing reach got six inches shorter (from 8'9" to 8'3") between 2015 and the Hoop Summit in 2016.

It makes sense that there would be some fluctuation between measurements (which I see with some of the other players), but that's quite a drop-off and would place him slightly below average among players at his position, whereas 8'9" would be excellent and comparable to Tatum.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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Gotta say, Phoenix can put together a pretty good offer for Porzingis with #4, even without Booker involved. We could beat them in draft picks, but they could take Noah's contract and supply them with 2 or 3 young guys like Bender, Chriss or Warren to build around.
Meanwhile the team that currently has Bender, Chriss, Warren, Booker and #4 to build around is the most active team in trade talks and has been linked to everybody from Kevin Love to LaMarcus Aldridge to Porzingis.

Is there anybody out there who is super bullish on Phoenix's future right now?
 
James Stewart, producer for Felger and Mazz, just gave his prediction. Before you pooh-pooh that, his best friend and roommate works for the Celtics. Stewart "guaranteed" the Jaylen Brown pick last year and predicted the Marcus Smart pick the year before.

He said if Danny takes Josh Jackson at #3, it's for somebody else and he will be traded as part of a larger deal. But they will more likely pick Tatum at #3 and trade back in at #7 for another rookie (possibly Dennis Smith Jr).