The Plan For the #1, er, #3 Overall Pick?
- Thread starter pdaj
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The difference in the rookie scale between being the 3rd and 4th pick is about $2M over the first 3 years. So by not arranging a workout he is potentially costing his client significant cash.
How can we guarantee we'll pick him as a condition to him working out? What would be the purpose of the workout then? Stupid request, if actually made.
I assume Jackson's agent suspects Danny is just bringing Jackson in to keep options open, but really wants Tatum. So if he comes to work out, and then Celts pick Tatum, Jackson gets a black mark (combined with LAs rumour) and may slide a bit more.
This thought process is being penny wise and dollar foolish. The real money is in your first post-rookie scale contract not in your rookie deal.....that money is peanuts.
He doesn't want to be shopped around and/or traded next year. I don't blame him or any other rookie for not wanting to begin their career on the bench under these circumstances with enormous contracts at risk in 4 years.
It's one thing to be an asshole.....it's another to be business savvy. These words are coming from his agent who knows exactly what is at stake here. You don't want your client to get the journeyman label in their 2nd or 3rd season with a contract year approaching.
It isn't stupid at all. Verbal promises are made all the time with draft picks, contracts, and agents being involved in finding trade partners for their clients. That's the game.
Have you heard of a promise that goes: "We won't work out for you unless you promise before said workout to draft my client."
It's easy if you read between the lines. Jackson's agent already refused to workout for the Celtics when we had the #1 pick......what would make you believe he would workout for us now that we have the #3? Nothing really changed (because the agents certainly knew Ainge was already discussing trading out of #1) so if you want my guy I'm going to make unrealistic demands. He doesn't want his guy blocked behind veterans just as Ball didn't and just as Dunn's agent last year. It is a smart move by him as he wants his guy to go to a team ready to commit to him and get him minutes/numbers sooner rather than later.
Edit: As Nick said above.
Okay, I guess that's what I mean--it's an unrealistic demand, not meant to be accepted. This kicked off with a poster saying that DA should say yes.
Historically, how much has the decision to refuse to workout for a team mattered? Does this basically foreclose Ainge taking Jackson since he won't have the chance to work him out/see his medicals, or is this a perhaps a slight mark against taking him but not enough to really change the decision if he was the guy they were leaning to taking? I recall Porzingis refusing to work out for the 76ers, which may have contributed to them passing on him, but that's just one example I'm familiar with.
Edit: this piece from the Ringer goes through a few more instances, including Curry declining to work out for the Warriors, who, of course, too him anyways: https://theringer.com/lonzo-ball-workout-refusal-boston-celtics-c645d49fa3af
Edit: this piece from the Ringer goes through a few more instances, including Curry declining to work out for the Warriors, who, of course, too him anyways: https://theringer.com/lonzo-ball-workout-refusal-boston-celtics-c645d49fa3af
I did say that DA should say yes. If that's what it took to get the workout.
...Of course I also said DA should then immediately cancel the workout, as we don't want the guy we committed to take at #3 possibly getting injured.
I thought the sarcasm was evident.
It's "stupid" precisely because it's an "unreasonable demand." Just say no. I mean, you can play the game, but we don't have to be dumb enough to think the demand means anything. There's no actual reason the Celtics would work him out if they had to promise to take him regardless of the workout's results. That's an actual waste of time, for the Celtics. As well as a trap.
FWIW Isaac fans, I heard a college basketball analyst being interviewed on ESPN radio. He said Isaacs has enough upside to potentially be the best player in the draft. He gushed about his athleticism, but also mentioned that he was under the impression that everyone knew Isaacs was the best player on the court...except Isaacs. Said he lacked the alpha dog mentlity and seemed content/reserved to being a supporting player to a star rather than aspiring to be the star.
He definitely disappeared a ton in games that I saw. Given our Jeff Green experience, that kind of temperament gives me serious pause.
Kris Dunn played the same minutes per game as Jaylen. He shot 37% from the floor and his coach/gm is looking to bring Derrick Rose in to play PG next year. His agent may suck
This approach to the game is why many don't feel he will reach his potential. He floated in way too many games for long stretches. Isaac did this against college kids......I can't imagine that working out well when competing against men, many of whom share similar physical skills.
He's my D'Angelo Russell. My Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. My Dragan Bender. I've got Isaac as my biggest underachiever of the top half of the lottery projected guys. Like the others he CAN develop a niche as a role player in the right situation but it is his approach and mental makeup that prevented him from getting the most out of his physical abilities.....your DNA is what it is.
I was wondering about this from the agent perspective and would love to know what anyone with direct knowledge would think. After pick two the the rookie salary for 3-7 is in the $4m +/- 500k range. If you can get a player with a reasonably high Q rating to a place he can get some real run (ie not the Celtics) will this translate right away to better endorsement deals? I can only find info for top players, but I would think the potential extra-salary income could compensate for falling a couple picks so its more than just setting up for contract #2.
I would also think you have an iron clad get out of jail free here: we were planning to draft you but your visit was hot garbage. Whats the player/agent going to say? Its presumably the point of the visit in the first place to evaluate or why do it.
Building up the pick (especially with #1 and 2 looking like done deals), since there are several teams who are looking to add Jackson and they want to make sure it is clear he won't be available at #4. So "Let's Make a Deal"
This is a strange list to me. D'Angelo Russell looks pretty good to me (I'd rather have him than the #3 pick), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist wasn't really expected to develop into a scorer, and Dragan Bender is still 19 years old...
I'm an Isaac or bust guy, and I don't expect Isaac to develop into much of a scoring threat except at the perimeter. That's fine when you've got his combination of interior and perimeter defensive skills, as well as rebounding. A better defensive Serge Ibaka is the realistic upside. Barring freakish development, he's not gonna turn into a go-to, or even secondary option on offense however. That's fine.
Serge Ibaka has muscle mass that Jonathan Isaac can only dream of. I think Isaac is always going to be pretty wiry based on his frame. If they can trade back to 5-7 and pick up another valuable asset, I may be able to be talked into Isaac but there would be considerable risk there if you're passing up a polished scorer like Tatum or a good all around player in Jackson.
I wasn't listing results of players who underachieved their draft position......only some previous players drafted high who I expect/expected to underachieve their draft position. I should have been more clear however when I included "my" what I meant was that I feel about Isaac how I felt about those players on draft night but I still don't like any of those players where they were slotted.
Russell was the 2nd overall pick two years ago......those guys don't get traded if they are impressing decision makers and certainly not for the team to draft his replacement. He was instrumental in helping the Lakers lose a ton of games last year. He's still a young PG however he has already earned an awful reputation with his attitude and work ethic. Those guys tend to underachieve.
PHO is in an interesting spot here. To follow this line of thinking, maybe PHO thinks their backcourt is set with Bledsoe/Booker/Knight, and want to keep minutes available for Chriss/Bender/Len in the front court, but TJ Warren is their only true-SF type, which would make Jackson a good fit. If you can get that 2018 MIA pick to move back from 3 to 4, that seems like tremendous value, but I doubt PHO would do it (unless they're in love with Jackson and convinced they can't get him at 4, which I guess would be the play here if the C's want Tatum).
I think HRB was referring strictly to their alleged passive approach to the game? I still don't get including Russell there- he was absolutely a floor-general gamer in college.
Not necessarily. I didn't feel Russell had elite athleticism for an NBA point guard and if it was only slightly plus (which I still feel) his herky-jerky style and questions about his attitude/work ethic back then were enough for me to feel his most likely outcome would be as a league-average PG in 3-5 years......those guys go early/mid-teens not at #2.
He's progressing on that pace as I expected but now there are even more character questions.....and he just got traded to the Nets along with Mozgov for an expiring contract and a low-1st. Compare that to Porzingis who was drafted after him and is being asked for multiple lottery picks in return.
Chad FordVerified account @chadfordinsider 18m18 minutes ago
Celtics finally received Josh Jackson's medicals, but he still won't workout for Boston. C's still debating but appear to be leaning Tatum
Celtics finally received Josh Jackson's medicals, but he still won't workout for Boston. C's still debating but appear to be leaning Tatum
I think Jackson has a promise from PHX only reason that makes sense for why he wouldn't work out for Boston
I hadn't heard the attitude/work ethic questions, that's troubling, and LAL certainly sold low. With his inability to get to the rim and poor defense, he has some big warts. He's not in Porzingis's orbit as an asset, but I do wonder, common perception aside, how much less valuable he is than, say, Booker.
Sure seems like it based on his and his agent's actions. Assuming he still has interest in Jackson, Danny is probably playing a game of chicken with Phoenix as we speak.
It's not hard to laugh at rookie PG's production. Few come close to their potential until years 3-5 in the league. Had he been drafted by Boston he'd have been their 5th guard and only getting rotation minutes when injuries occurred rather than playing 17 mpg with spot starts. His agent made a very smart decision.Kris Dunn played the same minutes per game as Jaylen. He shot 37% from the floor and his coach/gm is looking to bring Derrick Rose in to play PG next year. His agent may suck
Ignoring Jackson (I think he's more likely to be an all around bust than either of Tatum or Isaac), but why is it riskier to bank on Isaac's development than Tatum's? I mean, Tatum may be a scorer, but he's got a long way to go defensively before, with serious questions about whether he can ever get there. Of the two, Isaac seems to me like the safer choice, with Tatum being the more high upside guy.
Isaac is going to be wiry but it looks like he could still put 15-20 pounds of muscle on his frame. As for Tatum, he has such broad shoulders I could see him putting on enough weight to play 4.
And on Russell, didn't the guy fuck one of his teammates' wives? I imagine he isn't a very popular teammate either.
edit: Nevermind, he recorded Nick Young cheating on his wife and made the affair be known. https://www.sbnation.com/2016/3/30/11330390/dangelo-russell-nick-young-tape-iggy-azalea-cheating
Guy sounds like a douchebag, but if you're the Nets, it's worth a shot. You aren't getting a player with more upside back for Brook.
Very valid arguments either way. For me, the tiebreaker is that Isaac looked so passive and timid at times despite being the most talented player on the court most of the time. If you can get a coach that can get him to be more assertive, you will have a very good player. And we certainly have a good coach to do that. But if, like with Jeff Green, it's just not in him, then you're left with a guy who will always leave you wanting more. In today's game, I'm siding with the guy with the polished offensive game over defense.
In the end, I'm fine with Tatum, Jackson, or Isaac if that's who the staff wants but I probably won't be excessively fist pumping over any of them. I see 3 good to very good players here.
Jackson worked out for Philly and the Lakers twice in the past 10 days so he has no promises.
Hey Bowiac - do you know anything about Dr. Steve Shea and his College Prospect Rating? According to Valley of the Suns website, Tatum has a "CPR" number of 15, which is pretty high. The article goes on to explain:
CPR stands for College Prospect Rating which is a metric derived by Dr. Steve Shea Ph.D, the author of two books on basketball analytics. It is a metric designed to rate a college player’s NBA potential. (A full explanation of it can be found here (http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2017/03/10/college-prospect-rating-cpr-version-3/).
I include this number specifically because of how much weight I would put into it, considering the excellence of both of Dr. Shea’s books (if you love basketball, I would recommend reading both), but also because Tatum’s rating of 15 which is second among this year’s class (behind Malik Monk at 18). Tatum also ranks 8th among all players in this metric over the last 6 drafts. The players ahead of him are Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, Stephen Curry, Malik Monk, Hassan Whiteside, Kevin Love, and Blake Griffin.
I've never heard of the guy or the system, that's why I'm asking.I include this number specifically because of how much weight I would put into it, considering the excellence of both of Dr. Shea’s books (if you love basketball, I would recommend reading both), but also because Tatum’s rating of 15 which is second among this year’s class (behind Malik Monk at 18). Tatum also ranks 8th among all players in this metric over the last 6 drafts. The players ahead of him are Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, Stephen Curry, Malik Monk, Hassan Whiteside, Kevin Love, and Blake Griffin.
Article also says that Tatum had a good rebounding rate with Duke last year.
Pretty sure Shea is the guy who eliminates the players worst performances and goes off of their best.
I'm a big fan of Tatum but that article or book or both are a bunch of hokum. The claim is that he's ranks 8th among all players in this metric over the last 6 drafts and then tries to wow us by listing a bunch of studs who have all become studs (except Monk). The only problem being that Durant was drafted in '07, Love in '08, Curry and Griffin in '09 and Whiteside in '10. None of those guys were in the last 6 drafts! Since Monk is in this coming draft only Anthony Davis was in the last 6.
So what is the claim? That Monk and Tatum are two of the top 8 projections in the past 10 drafts? Doubtful. That this metric has a 0% bust rate in the past 6 or 10 years? Really, really doubtful. Smells more like someone spouting off numbers designed to impress.
I was just curious if anyone had heard about this guy because I hadn't.
However, looking into it a bit, here's a little explanation of the metric and his 2016 evaluations: http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2016/04/06/college-prospect-ratings-cpr-2016/
Also, his rankings of players for the last six years plus a couple of additional individuals prior to that is here: http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2017/04/05/cpr-2017/.
Yes, I'm sure the guy is claiming a 0% bust rate in the past 10 years. Of course, what we don't know, is that Dr. Steve Shea is really an incarnation of Nostradamus and he's not predicting the future, he's telling us what he already knows.
However, looking into it a bit, here's a little explanation of the metric and his 2016 evaluations: http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2016/04/06/college-prospect-ratings-cpr-2016/
Also, his rankings of players for the last six years plus a couple of additional individuals prior to that is here: http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2017/04/05/cpr-2017/.
Jackson saying it was "too late" for him to workout with the Celtics after the Phily trade:
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19698584/josh-jackson-says-not-enough-work-boston-celtics-trade-philadelphia-76ers
He sounds like a girlfriend who's dumping you and giving you a litany of shitty excuses. At this point, his modus operandi is becoming a minus in my book. He should just have said that he's not interested in the Celtics for the actual reasons we have discussed in this thread. I don't think it would have hurt him as much.
