The Plan For the #1, er, #3 Overall Pick?
- Thread starter pdaj
- Start date
I have to say, if Ainge is being truthful, then let's at least be glad they added a real asset, rather than just taking Jackson/Tatum #1. We probably have all had our moments of getting frustrated with BB thinking "why not just move down and take (whoever) later?", so I'll just be grateful for that.
Great, another 150 or so 3-pointers would probably have impacted their opinion then. It's just a dumb tweet by Franschilla -- which he did purposely so that it would get copy/pasted on message boards.
LA could still trade the pick...anyone could go #2. He may think he's getting who he wants at #3, but there's no guarantee.
Unless he's going way outside the box and taking Isaac or something. Which...ugh.
I get that. I just said it would have been nice to have the chance to gain the number #1 pick in the future. I don't think that is an incorrect statement; what team wouldn't want the first pick.
I agree with you that the number one pick protection was probably a deal breaker for Philly, and Danny made the smart move of allowing the protection as the odds say the pick won't be number one in either year and he has someone in mind for the current draft that should be there at #3 (gaining an extra lottery pick in the future).
If Danny is right on his player evaluation, I agree the deal could be another home run in terms of value if the guy he takes is close to Fultz.
We added ONE draft pick in the deal.
If you grant that Ainge, for whatever reasons, didn't like Fultz (relatively speaking) would you have preferred he:
1--Drafted Fultz anyway because the internet wanted him to? (And, full disclosure, so did I)
2--Drafted Tatum/Jackson at #1 because that's who his braintrust thinks would be better
3--Trade down and get Tatum/Jackson anyway AND pick up an asset
In his eyes he's getting the best player in the draft AND another potential high lottery pick.
I will say, if Danny doesn't care about the future protections bc those picks are all but gone, then that will make more sense to me (and I'll feel better)
If the pick is going to Chicago or somewhere else, then it not being #1 hardly has a negative impact on the C's.
Yes we added one pick but don't know which one of the three, and none of them can be #1 in our hands.
He said that the guy we might take at 3 is who we might have taken at 1.
Plenty of reports that they have a 4 player top tier, so he probably is saying that they were planning on going with 1 of 2 players, neither of whom was Fultz. And now IF they keep the pick they'll still be choosing between those two.
That is a very good point. If he is trading the picks, he probably wouldn't care about the protections as much.
If he is trading all these future picks, I hope he is getting a superstar.
My current hypothesis is that if Ainge traded down because he likes someone else in the draft almost as much as Fultz, that someone is most likely to be Isaac. Ball or Jackson don't make much sense, since the Celtics haven't worked them out. Hard to imagine Danny saying taking someone first overall without a workout. Also hard to imagine Danny taking someone with as little projection as Tatum that high.
This is also wishcasting. I'm coming around to Isaac being great. He's going to be very good defensively barring injury. He doesn't have much of an offensive game yet, but he can shoot it, and the FT% makes me think he's going to improve further still there. Isaac is also a growth spurt guy, growing 7 inches and changing from a guard to a big. Gives him a nice baseline of ball skills to improve with. The only thing missing with Isaac for me is passing upside, which isn't a minor issue, but that's also why he's not going first overall.
This is also wishcasting. I'm coming around to Isaac being great. He's going to be very good defensively barring injury. He doesn't have much of an offensive game yet, but he can shoot it, and the FT% makes me think he's going to improve further still there. Isaac is also a growth spurt guy, growing 7 inches and changing from a guard to a big. Gives him a nice baseline of ball skills to improve with. The only thing missing with Isaac for me is passing upside, which isn't a minor issue, but that's also why he's not going first overall.
All what will be free, assuming Ainge isn't lying about who he will pick. The Celtics have to bear some risk in this trade given Fultz isn't in the "generational talent" category.
I hope the next trade is with SAC - #3 and #37 for #5 and #10.
Assuming SAC takes Fox and PHX takes whoever's left from Ball/Jackson, BOS takes Tatum at #5.
Assuming SAC takes Fox and PHX takes whoever's left from Ball/Jackson, BOS takes Tatum at #5.
That's an interesting point. Is it possible that Ainge sees Tatum (probably more than Jackson) as a "Hayward-equivalent", and by drafting him they don't have to worry about the scorched earth moves needed to free up cap space for Hayward? Perhaps in combination with a trade of the LAL/Sac pick for Butler (along with players or another 1st such as the Memphis pick.)
This. If Ainge took anyone but Fultz at #1, people here would go crazy. He's confident he'll get who they want at 3, so this makes sense.
If they've locked in on Tatum, I'd hate to make one trade too many and lose him ... although I grant that it sounds tempting
While I think I would like to agree with you - after all Isaac does address if not solve a bunch of the Cs problems from the git go, particularly in terms of shot-blocking - it would be a master case of misdirection if (i) the Cs have repeatedly let it be known that they had a top 4 list that didn't include Isaac but secretly had him #2 and (ii) worked really hard to get work-outs with Jackson and Tatum post-trade but not Isaac.
I think the Cs are trying to decide between Tatum and Jackson and because they all have their strengths and weaknesses, they think it's so close among those two and Fultz that it's worth the extra pick.
It would never happen but imagine if they traded down to 5 and 10, traded the 5 for Butler and drafted Collins at 10? That would be one hell of a haul for a 1st pick. Ray Allen went for a 5th... I think they are signing Hayward now independent of any trade, too.
CelticsLife.com @CelticsLife 38s39 seconds ago
ESPN's Chad Ford is reporting that PHX is looking to trade up w/ either LAL or BOS to draft either Ball or Jackson.
ESPN's Chad Ford is reporting that PHX is looking to trade up w/ either LAL or BOS to draft either Ball or Jackson.
best take yet!
I'm pretty sure most wing types have hit 15 straight NBA 3s in non-game situations with a decent amount of regularity coming out of school.
They'd already worked out Isaac, so that's not quite as key for me. But I think I missed them letting it be known they had a top 4 without Isaac. Is this via like Kevin O'Connor, or it is through someone reputable? I agree that would be damning for my theory (hope).
Pit them against SAC. Of course, the Lakers make too much sense for a trade with Phoenix ... since LAL likely know that the C's aren't taking Ball
So what can you extract out of PHO to move back one spot? And then once that happens, what can you extract out of SAC to move back another?
What could we get from PHX? Likely just a second rounder or some heavily protected pick?
But if they want Ball, they wouldn't trade with Phoenix unless they are sure Phoenix takes Jackson. And if Phoenix does take Jackson, what if Sacramento trades up to draft Ball?
Miami's 2018 1st round pick with 1-7 protection sounds like a good get to slide back 3 to 4.
From Michael Eaves: Cs didn't like Fultz's workout. "The most glaring critique was that he was not as explosive as they expected/hoped. Afterwards, team felt as if he was NOT the best prospect."
If there's a second move like this one and they get Collins with 10 and either Isaac or Tatum With 5, then I'll come around immensely on the first move.
Or even better, they keep trading down until they own picks 1-30 in 2019
Trade the #3 and Boston's own 2018 first rounder to Phoenix for Phoenix' #4 and their 2018 first rounder. That would likely mean moving up maybe 20 spots in the 2018 draft in exchange for Phoenix being guaranteed to get one of the two guys they want (while still receiving a 2018 first rounder). That would mean that the Celtics could possibly have 3 of the top 5 picks in the absolutely loaded 2018 draft (Brooklyn, LAL, Pho). My goodness.So what can you extract out of PHO to move back one spot? And then once that happens, what can you extract out of SAC to move back another?
Then with the #4 draft Tatum. If somehow Ball is the only one available (say it goes Phi Fultz, LAL Tatum, Pho Jackson), then trade down again a couple more spots and try to land Isaac and add yet another pick instead.
Oh, Red you were typing that as I was typing my post so.....looks like my idea won't fly.
Yup. Nighthob brought that up in another thread. I think Danny would do that in a heartbeat if he's fine with either Jackson or Tatum (or Isaac).
That is way too much. They would want heavy protection on their own pick. Probably the same as Miami's.
Assuming this is true - if they're looking for explosiveness out of the top pick, does this signal a preference for Jackson over Tatum? Tatum isn't exactly the most explosive prospect.
Or is it silly to assume that the character trait they were looking for in one prospect is the one they'll require from another who plays a different position?
All in all I continue to think this is a fair trade.
Sixers add a guy they like who fits and allows them to get on with team building.
The Celtics weren't sold on the guy everyone else was and got an extra first from it.
It's highly likely this is a high lottery pick next year. But if not then it gets a bit more dicey.
I am surprised ainge went for #1 protection on both.
Sixers are now in a situation where they can plausibly get 4 straight number ones and the cost was a 2019 pick which could be out of the lottery
That's a worst case I'd be deeply unhappy about giving out (unlikely as it is, good lord that would be horrendous)
The worst case for Philly is giving up 2 and 3 in consecutive years to move up. That's a lot but it's not as bad a worst case as the Celtics.
But ainge was not likely to be willing to move a lot lower and who else can offer that sort of upside.
I remain bemused by ainge claiming he's going to get "their guy" as 3. You cannot be sure what the Lakers do. You have to like two guys as more or more than fultz right? Or you're adding another layer of risk.
I mean you expose yourself to
1) Celtics don't get their guy as Lakers take him and you have to settle
2) get nothing of value from Philly due to extreme luck.
I think I would have wanted more protection from those extremes
Sixers aren't exposed to that much, 2-5 or kings. Can't lose the #1 etc.
I like the Lakers plan for the Celtics. I mean that's sweet. Get the Lakers pick if it's elite. If not get a clean pick the year after. I like that Vs getting just the Lakers pick which could be later lottery in theory.
In short I think both sides are happy but given the Celtics situation I am surprised they have the biggest risks.
Sixers add a guy they like who fits and allows them to get on with team building.
The Celtics weren't sold on the guy everyone else was and got an extra first from it.
It's highly likely this is a high lottery pick next year. But if not then it gets a bit more dicey.
I am surprised ainge went for #1 protection on both.
Sixers are now in a situation where they can plausibly get 4 straight number ones and the cost was a 2019 pick which could be out of the lottery
That's a worst case I'd be deeply unhappy about giving out (unlikely as it is, good lord that would be horrendous)
The worst case for Philly is giving up 2 and 3 in consecutive years to move up. That's a lot but it's not as bad a worst case as the Celtics.
But ainge was not likely to be willing to move a lot lower and who else can offer that sort of upside.
I remain bemused by ainge claiming he's going to get "their guy" as 3. You cannot be sure what the Lakers do. You have to like two guys as more or more than fultz right? Or you're adding another layer of risk.
I mean you expose yourself to
1) Celtics don't get their guy as Lakers take him and you have to settle
2) get nothing of value from Philly due to extreme luck.
I think I would have wanted more protection from those extremes
Sixers aren't exposed to that much, 2-5 or kings. Can't lose the #1 etc.
I like the Lakers plan for the Celtics. I mean that's sweet. Get the Lakers pick if it's elite. If not get a clean pick the year after. I like that Vs getting just the Lakers pick which could be later lottery in theory.
In short I think both sides are happy but given the Celtics situation I am surprised they have the biggest risks.
I wonder what the (buzzword warning) tipping point is as far as accumulating first-round picks. At some stage, won't potential trading partners glom on to the notion that there's leverage potential in the Celtics' overload of picks?