The Plan For the #1, er, #3 Overall Pick?
- Thread starter pdaj
- Start date
So praying Sacramento doesn't win lottery......otherwise pick in the low 20s?
Ah Trader Danny, you looked the ping pong balls in the eye and won once...now you're daring them to fuck you over. And they will.
Meanwhile, I guess we all hope that Cleveland gets George, which will simultaneously make the LAL pick more likely to convey, and make Danny less likely to go all-in for this year.
Meanwhile, I guess we all hope that Cleveland gets George, which will simultaneously make the LAL pick more likely to convey, and make Danny less likely to go all-in for this year.
Most likely it won't be so odds are favorable for at least a top 10 pick in 2019 if they don't get a top 5 next year.
While it's not likely to matter, that top 1 protection two years away is really grinding at me. I don't expect Philly to be anything great but if Embiid is healthy that's a potential drop of 10+ picks, as Sacto seems like as good a bet as any to really suck in that timeframe. If Embiid can't stay healthy I expect both teams will be in the lotto.
Will now be rooting hard for the Lakers pick in any case. Really surprised that 2019 protection was needed to get this done. Feels like Ainge could have held out given it's an extra pick anyway.
Will now be rooting hard for the Lakers pick in any case. Really surprised that 2019 protection was needed to get this done. Feels like Ainge could have held out given it's an extra pick anyway.
But if it's not #1, they get the better of the Philly/Sacto picks. That's a net gain.
Do we read anything into the fact that he was willing to lock in this trade now, instead of holding out to see if Philly would blink and cave on the protection as we get closer to draft day? Another shoe to drop, maybe?
Low 20s? LOL.
This board overrates the Sixers more than their own fans do my goodness.
There is no draft party and rumors Chicago was shopping Butler to PHI for #3. So yes probably.
Blake Griffin used to eat at the same Subway as I did in Norman OK. He always reminded me of Biff from Back to the Future. Pass.
In the other shoe to drop category, I am definitely getting the vibe that Jimmy Butler will be a Celtic before the draft.
Also, as a side note, this basically encumbered three of Pholadelphia's picks so they can't be used in other trades before the relevant lotteries have run their course, right? Only one will end up getting shipped to Boston but they can't know which and can't move any of them for now.
Edit: and since one of those picks is their own first rounder, they can't trade away their first the years before or after that since then they could be in violation of the Stepian rule, right?
Edit: and since one of those picks is their own first rounder, they can't trade away their first the years before or after that since then they could be in violation of the Stepian rule, right?
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Talk sure seems focused on Tatum and Jackson, but I think I'd prefer Isaac if they end up keeping the pick. Elite, versatile defense with good shooting peripherals, plus rebounding, plays tough and I think concerns about his frame are overstated. He looks to me like he could pack on some muscle. Jackson's form just gives me Marcus Smart vibes, and while I like Tatum's offense well enough, I'm a bit worried about how he'll fare against NBA athletes.
I don't remember hearing much connecting Isaac and the Celtics, other than that they worked him out, so if they're interested, they're keeping it under wraps.
I don't remember hearing much connecting Isaac and the Celtics, other than that they worked him out, so if they're interested, they're keeping it under wraps.
Feeling that too. They're going to be fun to watch next season.
Add the Lakers/Nets watch parties into the mix, and it's gonna be fun.
You have to really hope that Sacramento's decade of crappiness continues, but I'd be a bit leery. That Buddy/WCS/Skal core was frisky at the end of last year, plus they're adding #5/#10/Bogdanovic this year, the '18 pick next year and whatever they can find in free agency. That could blossom into a 30-win team quickly, in which case you're getting a low-level lottery pick at best.
I'm having a hard time understanding protections on the Lakers lottery pick. Why 2 to 5 specifically? Why not, say, 2-10? At least at that point you're still getting a high end talent. You introduce so much risk pushing this thing potentially into 2019.
I'm having a hard time understanding protections on the Lakers lottery pick. Why 2 to 5 specifically? Why not, say, 2-10? At least at that point you're still getting a high end talent. You introduce so much risk pushing this thing potentially into 2019.
I'm fine with this move personally. For me, the real reason to do it is that the 2018 draft class looks like a better fit for the Celtics than this one. Getting a shot at Ayton, Bamba to help in the front would be huge for this team. Getting two shots at those players ( if both the Brooklyn/LA picks hit) would be totally ideal.
Given that Fultz has several question marks around him (defense, positional redundancy and health), I think this is a defensible position for Danny to have taken.
Given that Fultz has several question marks around him (defense, positional redundancy and health), I think this is a defensible position for Danny to have taken.
Defense is a question about most 18/19yos. Positional redundancy and health is nonsense.
Danny likes someone else better. Hope he's right.
I'm still unsure how to feel about this and I'll probably feel unsure until that other shoe drops and we see what DA does.
I just hope they're right about Fultz.
Edit: I read the protection thing incorrectly. I'm not liking that part at all. They couldn't get this done without those protections?
Maybe DA has a crystal ball.
I just hope they're right about Fultz.
Edit: I read the protection thing incorrectly. I'm not liking that part at all. They couldn't get this done without those protections?
Maybe DA has a crystal ball.
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Danny's quote that they looked forward to selecting a quality player at 3, assuming he's not full of shit, suggests to me they like Tatum over everyone's else (including Fultz). I don't think it's Jackson, but maybe it would have been if he didn't stonewall them with the workouts. Not that it stopped Danny before.
It takes massive balls to make this swap, and I don't see how Danny does it without being supremely confident that's Tatum or Jackson will be better.
It takes massive balls to make this swap, and I don't see how Danny does it without being supremely confident that's Tatum or Jackson will be better.
If you're consummating this deal before draft night it means that you're 100% sure that the guy you've identified as the best overall talent in the draft is still going to be there at #3. That basically eliminates Fultz, Ball and Jackson from the conversation because those guys are heavily in play for the top two picks. Tatum makes sense, but it could be a wild card like Isaac or Smith, too. Either way, it's a ballsy move to go so strongly against the consensus and fail to get a jaw-dropping package in return. You're going all-in on your ability to identify talent.
It might have been this article: http://nesn.com/2017/06/nba-rumors-celtics-were-concerned-markelle-fultz-wasnt-winner/.
One other thing that someone wrote suggests that "generational talents" are able to get their teams to win more than Fultz does.
So basically the Celts traded the number 1 pick in a draft for another future lottery pick that can never be #1. Not a big fan of the second #1 protection either. Oh well. What is done is done. I hope this doesn't hurt the Celtics chances at some titles.
BOTh top 1 protection, 2018, and both picks 2019, that's what's annoying me. But hey, once GSW falls apart, we will be ready to compete in the 2019-2020 season with 26358136581 first round picks.
It's going be frustrating waiting 2 years to see if we can land WIlliamson or Bagley. That's the big prize of the next 3 years IMHO. Better than Ayton and Co. And better than Fultz.
Yup. This just makes the overall deal seem slightly worse. Philly should have been willing to give up a future #1 to get the #1.
Fran FraschillaVerified account @franfraschilla 11m11 minutes ago
Saw Tatum's first Celtics' workout in LA & he was excellent.15 straight NBA 3's. This is getting interesting.
Saw Tatum's first Celtics' workout in LA & he was excellent.15 straight NBA 3's. This is getting interesting.
Is it top 7 next year? I thought it was top ten. Regardless, the odds are that the Heat make the playoffs next year (because Indiana is heading for the lottery again next year), so it's not really a big deal for the Suns.
You could always try to build a slightly larger deal for the Suns, because I heavily suspect that the Cavs are focusing on them in a Love trade to facilitate George to Cleveland, something like adding Zizic in exchange for Phoenix's top 3 protected #1.
Yep, it's Tatum. And honestly, I can't bring myself to be upset at this one. IF they keep the pick that is.
Marc D'AmicoVerified account @Marc_DAmico 12m12 minutes ago
Danny Ainge says this trade was unanimous in the #Celtics front office.
Danny Ainge says this trade was unanimous in the #Celtics front office.
That means nothing, Danny, unless you say which trades of the past were not and who was on each side.
Still don't get why Winslow was worth so many picks, but the #1 only 1 (extra)
That means less than nothing. What else is he going to say? "We're not sure about this one...could be a fucking disaster"
Meanwhile, how could he possibly know this?
No, the Celtics traded the #1 pick in the draft for the #3 pick in the draft, and another pick that could be #2-5 in 2018 or #2-30 in 2019 -- with very high probabilities that it will be top 2-10 in one of those years.
Most drafts shake out the way people expect them to. The first 2 picks are going to be from Fultz/Ball/Jackson. He likes someone else, or he's trading the pick.
As Danny has said, they've watched these guys for years via HS, AAU, and college. The implication that hitting 15 straight 3-pointers means anything to them is gloriously stupid.
He didn't have to say unanimous. He could have easily said something such as there was a wide discussion about this pick and the consensus was to trade down. That would indicate that some were for and some were against it.
It's all reading tea leaves, of course, but that statement makes me think even more than they are planning on taking someone like Isaac or Smith since it's much less likely they will be picked second. Or, it's Tatum and they are just convinced Lakers aren't interested. Jackson seems unlikely in light of that comment because I don't think it's inconceivable LA takes Jackson at 2.
Edited to add: Or a trade is already in place with the Bulls and he knows the Bulls want someone other than the Fultz/Ball/Jackson trio.
Edited to add: Or a trade is already in place with the Bulls and he knows the Bulls want someone other than the Fultz/Ball/Jackson trio.
Would be interesting to play the odds on the Lakers' record next year.
If they are the 3rd worst team in the league again next year (a distinct possibility, barring a George or other star trade), there's an 80.4% chance that the Celtics get next year's pick.
Here is the likelihood of the pick conveying depending on the Lakers' draft seeding:
#1 - 75%
#2 - 80.1%
#3 - 80.4%
#4 - 72.7%
#5 - 46.5%
And then quite marginal after that point...
If they are the 3rd worst team in the league again next year (a distinct possibility, barring a George or other star trade), there's an 80.4% chance that the Celtics get next year's pick.
Here is the likelihood of the pick conveying depending on the Lakers' draft seeding:
#1 - 75%
#2 - 80.1%
#3 - 80.4%
#4 - 72.7%
#5 - 46.5%
And then quite marginal after that point...
And all of those times watching they were seeing Tatum shoot college 3's. If he's showing he is going to be a good NBA 3-pt shooter than that's another positive.
The trade seems like good value as the Celts were not sold on Fultz (from everything that is coming out now), but I still believe they traded the #1 pick (in a draft where they didn't like the consensus #1) for an additional lottery pick in the future that can't be #1.
I am just saying that it would have been nice to not have the #1 pick on the 2019 picks. Philly should have been willing to roll the dice to get their guy in Fultz.
Upon reflection, I've really moved away from the tearing my hair out phase of processing this, especially in terms of what they got versus what they "should" have gotten. I mean, they added a likely, though not guaranteed, future high lottery pick to only move down two spots. How many teams would throw in more than that for the right to move up just two spots? Even if Fultz is the best player in the draft, he's not "Tim Duncan versus the field in '97" better, which is what it would take to get a king's ransom for the pick (and if he was that great, Ainge wouldn't do the deal at all).
Let's assume the Celtics are going to use the pick instead of trading it. Philly is taking Fultz. Let's also assume that Boston is not taking Ball, even if LA doesn't choose him at number 2. Obviously if LA takes Jackson, Boston will likely take Tatum, and if LA takes Tatum, then Boston likely takes Jackson.
The question is, if LA takes Ball, leaving Boston with a choice between Jackson and Tatum, it's a really interesting choice.
Athleticism: Edge Jackson. Absolutely tremendous athlete. Tatum is really athletic too, but Jackson is in another world.
Defense: Edge Jackson. Combine his size and athleticism with his work rate, and he has everything you need to be a great defender.
Offense: Edge Tatum. Both are terrific around the rim. Jackson is more explosive. Tatum is much more skilled offensively, especially from mid and three point range. Jackson is a better shooter than his mechanics would suggest. Tatum is smooth as silk.
Work ethic: Edge Jackson. Hard to say because I don't really know about Tatum's work ethic, but everything I've heard about Jackson is that he's just a tremendous worker. Always playing hard.
Character: Edge Tatum. Maybe Jackson's incident was just a one-time random thing, but it's certainly a yellow (if not a red) flag. Tatum has no red or yellow flags, as far as I know. Edge Tatum.
So 3 of the five things here are advantage Jackson. But the biggest one, perhaps, is an edge for Tatum - the offensive game. Given the Celtics' needs, I think a big-time scorer is more needed than another defensive oriented guy.
The question I have is this: Whether the Celtics take Jackson or Tatum, how will that impact their pursuit of Hayward? Jackson/Tatum, Brown, and Hayward give them three wing players and there aren't three wing positions on the court. Unless they just go with a point guard (IT, Bradley), three wings, and a big.
This is why I feel like Fultz was a PERFECT fit for them, given their current structure and needs. Oh well...I must move on.
The question is, if LA takes Ball, leaving Boston with a choice between Jackson and Tatum, it's a really interesting choice.
Athleticism: Edge Jackson. Absolutely tremendous athlete. Tatum is really athletic too, but Jackson is in another world.
Defense: Edge Jackson. Combine his size and athleticism with his work rate, and he has everything you need to be a great defender.
Offense: Edge Tatum. Both are terrific around the rim. Jackson is more explosive. Tatum is much more skilled offensively, especially from mid and three point range. Jackson is a better shooter than his mechanics would suggest. Tatum is smooth as silk.
Work ethic: Edge Jackson. Hard to say because I don't really know about Tatum's work ethic, but everything I've heard about Jackson is that he's just a tremendous worker. Always playing hard.
Character: Edge Tatum. Maybe Jackson's incident was just a one-time random thing, but it's certainly a yellow (if not a red) flag. Tatum has no red or yellow flags, as far as I know. Edge Tatum.
So 3 of the five things here are advantage Jackson. But the biggest one, perhaps, is an edge for Tatum - the offensive game. Given the Celtics' needs, I think a big-time scorer is more needed than another defensive oriented guy.
The question I have is this: Whether the Celtics take Jackson or Tatum, how will that impact their pursuit of Hayward? Jackson/Tatum, Brown, and Hayward give them three wing players and there aren't three wing positions on the court. Unless they just go with a point guard (IT, Bradley), three wings, and a big.
This is why I feel like Fultz was a PERFECT fit for them, given their current structure and needs. Oh well...I must move on.
Maybe I'm missing something but why would Jackson's agent refuse to have Jackson work out for the Celtics previously but relent now? Either he thinks Jackson can succeed on the Celtics or he doesn't - what's changed?
I was about to say the same thing. My guess is it Tatum but would love Isaac for some much needed rim protection
Well, you're still wrong then. They dropped two slots and picked up the potential of another 2-10 pick in the next two years. There is good value there, and great value if Fultz and Jackson/Tatum are a wash.
Keep in mind, even if the 76ers/Lakers/Sac have the worst record in the NBA, they only have a 25% chance of the #1 pick. Nobody really expects any of those 3 teams to have the worst record. It seems pretty clear that the Sixers didn't want to become the Nets -- and have the embarassment of watching someone else get their #1 pick -- it was probably a deal-breaker, and Danny made the unemotional decision to play the overwhelmingly odds that it won't be the #1 pick in either year.