The Plan For the #1, er, #3 Overall Pick?

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

This is highly troubling, if true:

@AdamHimmelsbach
The Celtics' overflowing backcourt also factored into their decision to pass on Fultz, sources say.

Why? If the Cs have Tatum and Jackson close to Fultz and they can get another high pick for passing on Fultz, why shouldn't they factor into the equation their roster?

Here's another thing. While the last 4 guards drafted #1 have been really good (Rose/Irving/Iverson/Wall), what did they ever win by themselves - and I think we can all agree that Kyrie wasn't winning anything until LBJ came along.

 

[Devizier]

I'd say Oden has been the biggest prospect since LeBron. The hype for Oden was insane before he even played at Ohio State. Wiggins probably got the most hype aside from Oden when you look at it as the hype starting before they even played a game in college.

Oden was also pretty great for the ~10 games that he was healthy.

 

[JCizzle]

This is highly troubling, if true:

@AdamHimmelsbach
The Celtics' overflowing backcourt also factored into their decision to pass on Fultz, sources say.

These comments are just worrying me even more.

 

[Cellar-Door]

From a cap perspective, what happens if the Celts don't have ANY first round pick in 2017? Assuming they trade #3 and player x for Butler (keeping the Laker pick), presumably there isn't as much scorched earth necessary to sign Hayward?

saves about 4M off the cap. Don't have to trade anybody, but still not enough to avoid renouncing Oynyk's rights but maybe enough to bring over Yabu. If they trimmed another 3-4M off the cap and stashed Yabu you could keep Olynyk's rights.

 

[Cellar-Door]

These comments are just worrying me even more.

I would absolutely not at all worry about what someone leaked to the press to justify a deal, it's always bullshit.
The time to worry is if they sign IT to an extension. (or trade the Brooklyn pick).

 

[BigSoxFan]

You're keeping the difference between #1 and #3. Say team X (just because I don't think it's necessarily Butler) wanted Bradley, Crowder and #1. The Celtics say eff you. But counter with, would you accept Bradley, Crowder and #3 if we can get it? If they agree to that, which is what we're theorizing in this scenario, Boston saves the value of the Lakers pick next year.

Ok, I see your point although I'm just wondering what players are out there that would require a top 3 pick AND Crowder/Bradley. Butler isn't worth it, George certainly isn't, etc. And what happens if you strike out in FA? Clearly, Ainge must feel good about his FA chances if he does this.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Wojo saying it's going to be Jackson or Tatum. http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/246302/Celtics-Likely-To-Decide-Between-Jayson-Tatum-Josh-Jackson-If-They-Keep-No-3

 

[Cellar-Door]

Ok, I see your point although I'm just wondering what players are out there that would require a top 3 pick AND Crowder/Bradley. Butler isn't worth it, George certainly isn't, etc. And what happens if you strike out in FA? Clearly, Ainge must feel good about his FA chances if he does this.

Also keep in mind it might be a question of a team preferring a top pick in 2018 or 2019 as better for their rebuild timeline. So the LAL pick is more palatable to move for the Celtics than the nets pick.

 

[mcpickl]

From a cap perspective, what happens if the Celts don't have ANY first round pick in 2017? Assuming they trade #3 and player x for Butler (keeping the Laker pick), presumably there isn't as much scorched earth necessary to sign Hayward?

Edit: Although the Laker/Sac option makes more sense for Chicago. Trade Butler and then tank like hell with a shot at 3 high picks in the next two years. They aren't going anywhere, with or without Butler.

Assuming the Celtics use cap space to sign Hayward, it would still be less painful to make the signing first, trade second. As is, the Celtics need to shave off one of Smart/Jae/Avery/#3 to make Hayward fit under the cap.(Assuming Yabusele won't stay overseas. If he did, just moving Rozier would get them close). If you traded for Butler first, you'd have to send out another 14-18M to stay under the cap, depending upon which Celtic you moved first. If a Butler trade came after a Hayward signing, you could get away with sending out 5M less.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

Ok, I see your point although I'm just wondering what players are out there that would require a top 3 pick AND Crowder/Bradley. Butler isn't worth it, George certainly isn't, etc. And what happens if you strike out in FA? Clearly, Ainge must feel good about his FA chances if he does this.

Well, that is just one example of many permutations. What about this scenario: Chicago (just as an example) says you can have Butler for Bradley + a high draft pick in the next few years. Before this trade, C's only option would have been to include the Nets pick as that high pick. Now, they can keep the Nets pick by offering the semi-protected Philly pick.

Again, the above is only one additional example, but I think the larger point in all of this is that Danny is giving himself maximum flexibility depending on what a potential trade partner most desires.

Edited to add: Yeah, what Cellar-Door said.

 

[Ale Xander]

Wojo saying it's going to be Jackson or Tatum. http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/246302/Celtics-Likely-To-Decide-Between-Jayson-Tatum-Josh-Jackson-If-They-Keep-No-3

Wojo related to Big Ben?
Seems obvious

 

[bankshot1]

What the fuck is the rush to agree to this deal? The return is not fucking big enough to turn Philly into a pain in the ass divison rival, for a decade. And they got the balls to want protection on the LA pic? One fucking maybe lottery pick one or two years out, is the premium on gving Philly the best player in this draft? Fuck this trade.

There's got to be more.

There's got to be some big fucking Anthony Davis shoes about to drop, if not then then fuck this trade.

 

[mcpickl]

Ok, I see your point although I'm just wondering what players are out there that would require a top 3 pick AND Crowder/Bradley. Butler isn't worth it, George certainly isn't, etc. And what happens if you strike out in FA? Clearly, Ainge must feel good about his FA chances if he does this.

There might not be any. I was just using an example where the Celtics might have had a deal for a guy where if the #1 was part of the package, or the whole package, they may have thought it was too much. But replacing it with #3 was fair. Maybe he's shooting for Porzingis?

I agree on Ainge feeling good about FA. The fact that there are no incoming players in this deal being added to the cap, and they saved a little cap space by moving down, makes me think it's more likely he thinks he's getting Hayward, or Griffin or whoever he's targeting.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 

[4 6 3 DP]

Because the only guard on their roster who should be playing more than 20 minutes a night for a good team is Isaiah. The rest are all JAGS. Avery Bradley should be getting 6th or 7th man minutes on a real team. Rozier is an energy guy. Smart is a 6th man. Too many B- players on this roster. Only reason to like this deal is the belief Danny thinks he can get 2 legitimate starters for one.

 

[SoxFanInPdx]

Those with the advanced knowledge, is next year's draft supposed to be as strong as this one, or just have more obvious star potential from 1-5 than this years?

 

[OurF'ingCity]

What the fuck is the rush to agree to this deal?

More flexibility in trading the pick(s) as opposed to if they did this trade (or similar) on draft day.

The return is not fucking big enough to turn Philly into a pain in the ass divison rival, for a decade.

As others have said, I don't really get this complaint. Fultz will single-handedly turn Philly into a top-4 team in the East but Jackson/Tatum/etc. wouldn't? I think it's fairly undisputed Fultz is the best player in this draft but not by that much.

 

[Kliq]

I want to justify this trade but it looks pretty suspect right now. First I hate going for the two nickels for a dime approach; this team has to many assets right now and the roster is going to be really crunched in the next few years--depending on free agency it is going to be a stretch to find Zizic and Guerschon minutes next season. We don't need more guys; the issue for the Celtics has never been finding capable players it has been finding stars, and trading away from taking the slam-dunk number one choice seems like an ass backwards way to do it.

Conversely, I really don't think a star player worthy of trading the #3 pick plus future picks plus current players is out there. Butler isn't worth it, George isn't worth it, hell, with his injuries I'm not sure Brow is worth it. The guys who I would trade all that for is basically Durant, Westbrook, Harden, James, KAT, Giannis. Something tells me those guys aren't available.

Since this trade makes no sense to me, I'll throw out a scenario that doesn't make a ton of sense. Suppose LeBron and Danny have already talked and LeBron is going to opt out and sign with Boston. Celtics then acquire assets to trade for George or Butler. No idea if they would make the salaries work but a five of IT/Bradley/Butler/James/Horford could possibly take down GS. Since any other scenario outside this one makes me want to rip my hair out, I'm focusing on this loony one.

 

[RedOctober3829]

LeBron isn't going to be a FA until next year.

 

[bosockboy]

LeBron isn't going to be a FA until next year.

And it's tampering.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Because the only guard on their roster who should be playing more than 20 minutes a night for a good team is Isaiah. The rest are all JAGS. Avery Bradley should be getting 6th or 7th man minutes on a real team. Rozier is an energy guy. Smart is a 6th man. Too many B- players on this roster. Only reason to like this deal is the belief Danny thinks he can get 2 legitimate starters for one.

I disagree with this. AB is exactly the kind of guy who should get minutes for good teams he's one of the best defenders of PGs in the league and he's a valuable floor stretching shooter. IT is a guy who can't play more than bench microwave minutes for a team that plans to compete for a title. Rozier is 2 years in, but looks like he can be a good backup PG. One interesting theory I saw a while back is whether the Cs might move on from IT, but if they added 2 ball handling players at the 2 and 3 they might play Bradley at the 1 where he could defend PGs but wouldn't have the offense running responsibilites because the wings would bring the ball up the court most times.

 

[JCizzle]

I really hope they don't move 3 for Butler or a year of PG.

Trying to talk myself into: IT, Avery, Hayward, Jae, Horford. Jaylen takes over for Avery after next year. Tatum slides to the 3/4 hybrid in two years. Draft Ayton AND possibly Porter or the Euro dude next year if we get really lucky. Suddenly the team is loaded at every position with high lottery picks in waiting.

 

[BigSoxFan]

There might not be any. I was just using an example where the Celtics might have had a deal for a guy where if the #1 was part of the package, or the whole package, they may have thought it was too much. But replacing it with #3 was fair. Maybe he's shooting for Porzingis?

I agree on Ainge feeling good about FA. The fact that there are no incoming players in this deal being added to the cap, and they saved a little cap space by moving down, makes me think it's more likely he thinks he's getting Hayward, or Griffin or whoever he's targeting.

But what about the cap implications in 2019 and onward of such a strategy? You'll have Horford at 30M, presumably Isaiah at 30+, Hayward/Griffin at 30+, and Trade target X likely at a high salary. I don't see how you can fit all this salary without getting killed on future luxury tax bills.

 

[Kull]

What the fuck is the rush to agree to this deal? The return is not fucking big enough to turn Philly into a pain in the ass divison rival, for a decade. And they got the balls to want protection on the LA pic? One fucking maybe lottery pick one or two years out, is the premium on gving Philly the best player in this draft? Fuck this trade.

There's got to be more.

There's got to be some big fucking Anthony Davis shoes about to drop, if not then then fuck this trade.

I'm definitely in the "concerned about Philly camp", but there's a good chance this trade pulls Philly out of the top 5 picks in 2018, and possibly out of the lottery altogether in 2019 and the years after. It seems likely that the Lakers will be a much better team in 2017, and won't have any incentive to tank. So outside of the miniscule chance of the lottery granting them the #1, even slots 2-5 will require lottery luck. And that means 6 or lower, and the Sacramento pick in 2019 (which has a great chance of being top 4) will convey to the Celts or whoever. Meanwhile, unless this new mix of 76ers is injury prone or otherwise a problem, they aren't sniffing the lottery with their own picks for years to come.

Not sure if that entered into Danny's thinking in any way, but it certainly makes it more unlikely that the 76ers add two more classes of top young talent to an already scary mix.

 

[Average Game James]

I want to justify this trade but it looks pretty suspect right now. First I hate going for the two nickels for a dime approach; this team has to many assets right now and the roster is going to be really crunched in the next few years--depending on free agency it is going to be a stretch to find Zizic and Guerschon minutes next season. We don't need more guys; the issue for the Celtics has never been finding capable players it has been finding stars, and trading away from taking the slam-dunk number one choice seems like an ass backwards way to do it.

Conversely, I really don't think a star player worthy of trading the #3 pick plus future picks plus current players is out there. Butler isn't worth it, George isn't worth it, hell, with his injuries I'm not sure Brow is worth it. The guys who I would trade all that for is basically Durant, Westbrook, Harden, James, KAT, Giannis. Something tells me those guys aren't available.

Since this trade makes no sense to me, I'll throw out a scenario that doesn't make a ton of sense. Suppose LeBron and Danny have already talked and LeBron is going to opt out and sign with Boston. Celtics then acquire assets to trade for George or Butler. No idea if they would make the salaries work but a five of IT/Bradley/Butler/James/Horford could possibly take down GS. Since any other scenario outside this one makes me want to rip my hair out, I'm focusing on this loony one.

If this trade gives Danny the assets to trade for Butler without giving up this year's pick or the '18 Nets pick, then there are some fairly attractive possibilities... If something like Bradley, Crowder, LAL '18 pick, BOS '18 pick can get you Butler and then the Celtics can add Hayward in FA you'd be looking at:

PG: IT, Rozier
SG: Butler, Smart
SF: Hayward, Brown, Jackson/Tatum
PF: Horford, Yabu
C: Zizic

With some filler to finish out the roster. That team certainly wouldn't be favored against Cleveland, but it would have a puncher's chance, and I'd argue it's pretty clearly a top 4 team in the NBA (maybe 3, depending on how SA's offseason goes).

 

[Ale Xander]

Is it too late to ask for Simmons instead of #3? I'd rather have him, provided he's healthy going forward. Like the forward pairing with Brown then too. Sign Hayward as a big-2 and then you're more in GFIN mode with Al and IT, at least in the East for '18.

 

[RG33]

This thread is amazing.

If Danny ends up with Butler and Hayward and Jackson out of this on top of potentially one of Ayton/Porter/Doncic it is a fucking grand slam. IT/Hayward/Butler/Horford/Zizic with Smart/Jackson/18'Rookie is a helluva lot better than what we put on the court this year. Top 3-4 in the NBA easily, and a legit puncher's chance against GSW and CLE.

I mean, by the sentiments in this thread you would think Danny is Don Sweeney and that the Celtics should just tank the next 5 years regardless because GSW and CLE are going to win anyways.

 

[Nick Kaufman]

I do have to say, as a fan, the experience of waiting to get the no 1 pick all those years only to trade it for more picks is the equivalent of having an 8 hour tantric sex session, being on the verge of completion only to be told by your partner to go for another 4 hours.

 

[RG33]

So we already forget everyone harping about taking Jaylen over Dunn and wondering the point of trading for picks if we were just taking random bodies to stash overseas? Get a grip people.

 

[CreedBratton]

I do have to say, as a fan, the experience of waiting to get the no 1 pick all those years only to trade it for more picks is the equivalent of having an 8 hour tantric sex session, being on the verge of completion only to be told by your partner to go for another 4 hours.

Hahaha yes you said it. Also, per above, Celtics wouldn't be getting butler without giving up Jackson/#3 so

 

[Ale Xander]

I disagree with this. AB is exactly the kind of guy who should get minutes for good teams he's one of the best defenders of PGs in the league and he's a valuable floor stretching shooter. IT is a guy who can't play more than bench microwave minutes for a team that plans to compete for a title. Rozier is 2 years in, but looks like he can be a good backup PG. One interesting theory I saw a while back is whether the Cs might move on from IT, but if they added 2 ball handling players at the 2 and 3 they might play Bradley at the 1 where he could defend PGs but wouldn't have the offense running responsibilites because the wings would bring the ball up the court most times.

this was EXACTLY my thought around March before IT won me over. Once time wears off, I'll probably go back to this. IT was the one of the three I preferred to trade.

 

[Cellar-Door]

But what about the cap implications in 2019 and onward of such a strategy? You'll have Horford at 30M, presumably Isaiah at 30+, Hayward/Griffin at 30+, and Trade target X likely at a high salary. I don't see how you can fit all this salary without getting killed on future luxury tax bills.

well the obvious answer is that you don't make the mistake of maxing IT.

Beyond that though if the trade target is Jimmy Butler he makes less than $20M each of the next two years because he's on the old max, so when he needs to be re-upped Horford (who actually only gets to 30M in his final year) will have expired.
Butler is such an attractive trade target not just because he's an excellent player, but also because he's now a significantly underpaid one.

 

[moly99]

If Danny ends up with Butler and Hayward and Jackson out of this on top of potentially one of Ayton/Porter/Doncic it is a fucking grand slam. IT/Hayward/Butler/Horford/Zizic with Smart/Jackson/18'Rookie is a helluva lot better than what we put on the court this year. Top 3-4 in the NBA easily, and a legit puncher's chance against GSW and CLE.

I mean, by the sentiments in this thread you would think Danny is Don Sweeney and that the Celtics should just tank the next 5 years regardless because GSW and CLE are going to win anyways.

That's exactly what we had last year: the #1 seed in the East and a solid chance to make the finals if Kyrie or LeBron got hurt.

No one is suggesting they should tank the next five years. That is clearly a straw man, and you know it.

 

[SoxFanInPdx]

This thread is amazing.

If Danny ends up with Butler and Hayward and Jackson out of this on top of potentially one of Ayton/Porter/Doncic it is a fucking grand slam.

Who of Porter/Doncic/Ayton are considering to be the best out of those 3? Do they have more potential star power than Fultz/Ball/Jackson or Tatum?

 

[Kliq]

Who of Porter/Doncic/Ayton are considering to be the best out of those 3? Do they have more potential star power than Fultz/Ball/Jackson or Tatum?

There is no consensus right now, all three are different players. Doncic is like a young, young Manu who shoots and drives from the perimeter. Porter is a do-it-all forward who is already a pretty complete player. Ayton is a refined Center with potential three point range. All three I think are better prospects than Fultz.

 

[JCizzle]

That's exactly what we had last year: the #1 seed in the East and a solid chance to make the finals if Kyrie or LeBron got hurt.

No one is suggesting they should tank the next five years. That is clearly a straw man, and you know it.

Yeah, I think most are advocating a best of both worlds approach. I still want them to keep all the picks while also signing Hayward or another FA.

 

[Kliq]

Watching Josh Jackson shoot the basketball with that god-awful hitch and low release point is not great bedtime viewing; going to have nightmares tonight.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

What a fucking nightmare. Giving up the BPA and sticking with IT and his major flaws, just to have him leave since he's not worth a max contract...I can't really see any scenario in which they get better doing this. Makes Philly a lot stronger though, so the Cavs won't be the main obstacle in three years. Unless he's got a Brandon Roy knee, or they have another huge trade lined up, they took a step back here. He's to the 2018 draft...

 

[nighthob]

But god, if DA ends up with Ball, I think DA will have made the biggest mistake of his life. Bigger than biting Tree Rollins.

I'm hoping that this was a stroke of comedic genius,

 

[HomeRunBaker]

There is no consensus right now, all three are different players. Doncic is like a young, young Manu who shoots and drives from the perimeter. Porter is a do-it-all forward who is already a pretty complete player. Ayton is a refined Center with potential three point range. All three I think are better prospects than Fultz.

Yeah if all three were draft eligible this summer Fultz would go no better than 4th. I don't feel there is much doubt to this.

Assuming this is a prelude to a Butler trade which seems to be the case or this trade would NEVER be consummated until after the Lakers made their selection we are really going to be upgrading our 3 position, taking it from a liability many nights to a strength most nights, while simply rolling back our #1 to next years lottery. Ainge is genius.

 

[djbayko]

Watching Josh Jackson shoot the basketball with that god-awful hitch and low release point is not great bedtime viewing; going to have nightmares tonight.

Good god. Why did you make me go watch video of this? I can't decide which is worse - Jackson's form or Ball's. They're both terrible for different reasons. At least Ball has shown he can be accurate with his form, I guess (under the right conditions). But they're both gong to have difficulty getting shots off in the NBA.

How does this even happen with A+ prospects anyways?

 

[SoxFanInPdx]

Kinda starting to think Tatum is the guy we need and that Ainge is eyeballing him.

 

[cardiacs]

I am going to disagree with most of you and say I am fine with this. Ainge did not think Fultz was that much better a fit compared to at least 2 other guys on the board and got max value for the pick. What would have been a disaster is he kept the number 1 and drafted someone other than Fultz.

I think folks on this board should be open-minded about Butler coming - I know their games don't compare but there is a good chance Fultz will never be as good as Butler at the NBA level. Always make deals for proven NBA all-stars over draft picks because there is too much variability in how players project, and that doesn't include injury risk.


Personally I continue to be more excited for Zizic than anyone in this draft class....

 

[BigChara33]

I dont get how the C's make a trade with the 76ers if it doesnt involve embiid? Only player that puts the c's over the top after adding atleast hayward...

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

How does this even happen with A+ prospects anyways?

there are no A+ prospects this year. Fultz is the best of an average class.

 

[MuzzyField]

Build around the guy you drafted last year or punt. Good luck! The brow ain't coming.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Have to default to 'in Danny we trust'. He hasn't made many mistakes. This doesn't make much sense to me, but I (and anyone here) know next to nothing compared to him.

 

[djbayko]

there are no A+ prospects this year. Fultz is the best of an average class.

After I clicked Submit, I knew someone was going to say this. I'm using a broader definition obviously. They are top of a class. My point is that it shouldn't happen with prospects anywhere near their level.

 

[Soxy]

Can we have an identifier in this thread if the poster lost their mind because the Cs passed on Dunn last year and drafted Brown. Since I don't watch NCAAB, I need some other metric for who to pay attention to.

I don't watch nearly as much NCAAB as I used to and I think it's pretty obvious which posters here know what they're talking about and which ones are the SoSH equivalent of WEEI callers venting on a topic of which they know nothing about. Unfortunately there are a lot more of the latter than the former.

Cellar-Door must have the patience of a saint. I have no idea how he hasn't taken the gloves completely off and just eviscerated some of these posters. He's doing God's work, really.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

I don't watch nearly as much NCAAB as I used to and I think it's pretty obvious which posters here know what they're talking about and which ones are the SoSH equivalent of WEEI callers venting on a topic of which they know nothing about. Unfortunately there are a lot more of the latter than the former.

Cellar-Door must have the patience of a saint. I have no idea how he hasn't taken the gloves completely off and just eviscerated some of these posters. He's doing God's work, really.

This thread is an amazing study in collective psychology. The best so-called draft experts in the world - not to mention the GMs themselves who are paid to get these things right - have a very spotty track record in evaluating which college and overseas players will truly flourish in the NBA. Even among college basketball diehards, how many people here have watched Fultz or even Jackson enough to really feel you know their strengths and weaknesses? And even then, how can you really know how those strengths and weaknesses will translate to the NBA, and how players will develop and improve over time? Even knowledgeable armchair basketball fans can't be sure how someone like Butler will do with the Celtics, and he's been on show in the league for many years...but at least those fans can reasonably expect to possess enough data to justify that sort of speculation. With Fultz, they don't.

Draft speculation turns good SoSH posters into Bill Simmons. That is all.