The Plan For the #1, er, #3 Overall Pick?

ehaz

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2007
4,615
College FT% is a better predictor of pro 3P% than college 3P% because of SSS. This is why I have hesitation over Jackson.
So what do we make of Fultz' 64.9 FT%?

Freshman year FT% of some NBA PGs:

Harden: 75%
Kyrie: 90.1%
Lillard: 81%
CP3: 84%
John Wall: 75.4%
IT: 68.3%
Russ: 55% (played very limited minutes, 71.3% as a sophomore)
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
49,859
The way this is being written about it's sounding like the trade could go down before the draft. If JJ is really the target why would Ainge do that? It's hard to imagine that the 76ers are not interested in Fultz. In that case, if your Ainge and you've decided you prefer JJ then why wouldn't you just draft Fultz at 1 and then, if JJ is still available at 3 contact the 76ers prior to their selection and pull off a trade. Obviously the details have to be prearranged, but that doesn't seem to be a huge barrier.
So he can move the 3 for Butler/George at the draft which then locks in Hayward/Griffin at the start of free agency. I guess. Didn't run through the cap implications.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Really the only top player with a decent sample size in 3s and a good FT% is Malik Monk. Fultz sample size isn't all that much bigger than Jacksons, and neither one shot that many more FTs than 3 pointers.
 

The Mort Report

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 5, 2007
5,299
Winter Hill
While I feel like I'm kinda coming in at the middle of how I feel about this, I do hope if he does the trade he swings for the fences with Isaac at 3. He seems to have the highest ceiling in the draft according to some. They don't need more high motor guys, that's what jae, Marcus and jb provide.

This team needs a superstar, not a 2nd or 3rd scorer. They don't need a 6-8 man who gives you 18 min a game better than the other team's 6-8. I know I'm probably in the minority but screw it go with the highest ceiling and hope you get the next Alphabet
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
51,524
Oh he's definitely bad on defense, a combination of skill, effort, a bad team and a terrible coach. On the other hand he's a great athlete and good coaching should be able to make him at least a good enough defender to not kill you, odds are pretty good his defense long term won't be as bad as our current starting PG.
Well, unless we're drafting him not to play at all with IT, then that's 2 bad defenders on the court.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
29,012
Chicken with his head cut off for the most part. But so was Jaylen for much of this year. Potential is there though.

Edit: also, he simply couldn't afford to pick up fouls so he was a sieve a times. Maybe that is me making excuses for him. We need drocca back ha

Edit 2: 9 min video on his D here
Same folks did a defense video on DSJ, and while I don't know French, it looks like they picked the clips where DSJ actually played some D. Methinks DSJ has the physical tools to play good defense but since he was a one-man show on offense, and his team wasn't good, he probably coasted mor than he should have. He did have a good steal rate I believe.

 

Smokey Joe

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 9, 2001
1,081
You know, the speculation about who Ainge wants to select in this draft is very interesting, but I'm not sure we are going to draft anybody.
I feel like i'm watching him trade for Ray Allen...
 

heavyde050

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 17, 2006
10,572
San Francisco
He would be the Ray Allen. Very few players would be KG.
So the Ray Allen trade (without KG) probably doesn't win any championships.
If Ainge is going to flip the number one he better have a KG on the way.
And if he thinks Jimmy Butler is KG then it is going to be a long time before the next banner.
Ainge has worked magic before he just needs to do it again.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
31,941
Well, unless we're drafting him not to play at all with IT, then that's 2 bad defenders on the court.
I guess my feeling is that if you're drafting Dennis Smith then IT has at most 1 season maybe less left in a Celtics uniform. Honestly I kind of felt that about Fultz too. I just don't see Ainge maxing IT based on his history, feels like if he hadn't had the hip injury he's probably being dangled in trade offers right now.
 

southshoresoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
5,249
Canton MA
Can somebody explain to me the widespread fear of "making Philly better" please? They have a complete non proven no shot 6 9 point forward who is suspect defensively with a foot issue and another 7 footer who is awesome but cant stay healthy.

This deal would extend your window out. FWIW i dont think its hapening barring a major haul i.e. Lakers 18 and Kings 19.

But if Jackson makes 3s hes likely the best player in the draft.
 

Sprowl

mikey lowell of the sandbox
Dope
Jun 27, 2006
34,303
Haiku
I'm thinking that Ainge is thinking that winning the 2017 draft lottery is inconsequential to him, but meaningful to others. He wants to take advantage of the imputed premium.

Does Ainge sense that the Force does not run strong in young Fultz? Or is he looking forward to two out of DeAndre Ayton, Michael Porter, Luka Doncic or Mohamed Bamba, and reasonably content with Tatum as a consolation prize for waiting another year. Or #3 turns into #5 and #10... Or Ainge trades #1 all the way down and out of the draft.

In any event, nobody can fault him for having launched an auction and gotten plenty of bids.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
49,859
Can somebody explain to me the widespread fear of "making Philly better" please? They have a complete non proven no shot 6 9 point forward who is suspect defensively with a foot issue and another 7 footer who is awesome but cant stay healthy.

This deal would extend your window out. FWIW i dont think its hapening barring a major haul i.e. Lakers 18 and Kings 19.

But if Jackson makes 3s hes likely the best player in the draft.
Yeah this is one thing I'm not particularly worried about. Embiid is the biggest question mark in the league right now and I don't have good feelings about his chances for a long and healthy career. And I think Simmons will be weird to build around.

My fear is less about Jackson and more about blowing the load on vets without getting a Davis level guy to make it truly worthwhile. I mostly agree about JJ, but if people felt great about his shot I think he'd maybe be the #1 already anyway, given his D and general Marcus Smart-level energy. We shall see! Ainge is no Belichick but he's quite good so maybe he pulls another rabbit out.

100% agree that I'd be holding out for the Sac pick and nothing less as the third piece.
 
Last edited:

southshoresoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
5,249
Canton MA
And lets be serious here...Fultz is not some generational prospect..he is not LeBron, The Brow, Towns, Duncan etc. He is a good player in a class full of good players.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
31,941
Funny thing is someone looked at all the times the #1 was traded either just before or within his first season...
all but 1 were likely wins for the team trading him away (maybe 2 ties if you push it).
However... the Celtics did it twice and probably had the 2 best deals of the bunch (Bill Sharman, and the Joe Barry Caroll and 13 for Parish and #3 McHale)
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
8,451
And we don't know the return. If it ends up being #3, LAL 2018 and another pick with #3 getting traded with Bradley for a stud and enough cash to free up a run at another stud it'll be tough to complain. Also tough to see Heyward turning down a chance to join the defending Eastern Conference finalist that added a stud (George?) and has two top picks for '18...

Tough not to sign up for that as a fan.
 

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
7,922
New York, NY
One interesting side note is that the Celtics have some ability to push past the cap via trade. Thus, a situation where they trade back to 3, renounce everyone, sign Hayward, then trade Bradley, Crowder, and picks for Butler works but doing the full trade first creates cap problems for signing Hayward unless they can convince Yabusele to wait another year. (I haven't run the numbers for the 3 pick cap hold, so I might be slightly off, but the basic point holds.)
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,320
Which is, ugh, to me because at this time last year, was Fultz even considered a lottery pick? So much can change in a year.
Here's Chad Fords' first big board of the season. Fultz was #3. Josh Jackson was #1. 8 of the top ten are still in his current top eleven. These guys have it pretty well figured out these days. If next years draft is considered strong right now, it's very likely it will be strong.

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/17360738/chad-ford-nba-mock-draft-10-picks-los-angeles-lakers-philadelphia-76ers-boston-celtics-more
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
54,476
deep inside Guido territory
Markelle Fultz canceled his 2nd workout with the Celtics for Lakers/76ers visits, but Boston is attempting to get him to come in once more.

The Celtics had Lauri Markkanen & Dennis Smith in for workouts today. Still trying to get Josh Jackson to come but have been unsuccessful.

--Adam Himmelsbach
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
51,524
Well, I imagine the Celtics didn't mind him going to Philly if they actually want a trade.

Bringing him back a second time either indicates they're still not 100% sure or they are still yanking Philly's chain to up an offer.
 

bosockboy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
19,035
St. Louis, MO
And we don't know the return. If it ends up being #3, LAL 2018 and another pick with #3 getting traded with Bradley for a stud and enough cash to free up a run at another stud it'll be tough to complain. Also tough to see Heyward turning down a chance to join the defending Eastern Conference finalist that added a stud (George?) and has two top picks for '18...

Tough not to sign up for that as a fan.
Agree, I think a lot of the window dressing will be ready before they try to ink Hayward. I think adding Butler and Hayward is the goal and still have future premium picks. Ainge has enough assets accumulated that he can compete now and still control the NBA trade market for several years. When Davis becomes available, he'll be ready and waiting.
 

southshoresoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
5,249
Canton MA
Agree, I think a lot of the window dressing will be ready before they try to ink Hayward. I think adding Butler and Hayward is the goal and still have future premium picks. Ainge has enough assets accumulated that he can compete now and still control the NBA trade market for several years. When Davis becomes available, he'll be ready and waiting.
Bingo.

Assuming this trade Danny gets his Nets haul (lakers 18 and kings 19)

You run out...

IT/Butler/Hayward/Horford/Zizic w whoever is leftover from Crowder Jaylen Smart Bradley (guessing 2 of those stay) plus #3 Yabu etc

And likely keep Lakers 18 Kings 19.

Not a bad spot to be in, extends the window a little and Hayward and Butler could both be there in 2020-2021 when I think you realistically have a shot to compete.

Basically kicking the ball just a little further down the road. An absolute no brainer for Ainge if Fultz isnt his guy in this draft.

And if Pelicans make Davis available what team can trump Lakers 18 Kings 19 Clippers 19 and 2 young players?
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
54,476
deep inside Guido territory
Keith Pompey of Philly.com

"The holdup to an agreement was the Sixers getting Fultz in for a workout. The Sixers are expected to give up the No. 3 pick, the Los Angeles Lakers' 2018 first-rounder and possibly another future first-round pick. The Vertical is reporting that it could be a 2021 pick.

A league source said late Saturday night that the trade could be finalized as early as Monday. This came hours after word out of Boston held that the Celtics don't want to finalize the deal until the night of the draft.

The update could mean that Boston is close to getting assurances it will also get the player it covets - Kansas' Josh Jackson - with the third pick.

Another scenario is that Boston general manager Danny Ainge will live with whoever is available at No. 3 as long as he gets the other assets he desires.

Even though the Celtics reached the Eastern Conference Finals, a source said Ainge realizes his team is several seasons away for contending for the title. That's why stockpiling future assets could trump drafting a certain player in this draft.

However, the Celtics, who like Jackson but don't want to draft him first overall, could draft Fultz at No. 1. Then, if Jackson is still available at three, the Sixers would select him, and the teams would make a trade afterward.

However, the source reiterated that the trade could be finalized on Monday.

That would make Fultz happy, according to a source. The Upper Marlboro, Md., native was the only draft prospect to wear Sixers gear as he entered the building during any of this month's predraft workouts.

Sources have also said that he was disappointed when the Sixers weren't awarded the first pick in last month's lottery."

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/sixers/Philadelphia-76ers-Markelle-Fultz-works-out-for-the-Sixers-as-trade-talks-heat-up.html?mobi=true
 

dylanmarsh

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
6,608

Just strictly off of first impression, holy shit do I love Jackson's vibe and confidence over the others.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
31,941
I find it interesting that the guy leaking out of the Philly front office still hedged some on the price. If it was really locked in like he's saying why would there be a "possibly" on another pick.
Combined with the Boston front office leaking that they want to bring Fultz in again, and the Philly guy being so adamant (though it could just be Pompey saying that) that Jackson is Boston's guy when he hasn't agreed to a workout with them makes me think this is close, but definitely not 100% agreed.
 

bosockboy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
19,035
St. Louis, MO
Bingo.

Assuming this trade Danny gets his Nets haul (lakers 18 and kings 19)

You run out...

IT/Butler/Hayward/Horford/Zizic w whoever is leftover from Crowder Jaylen Smart Bradley (guessing 2 of those stay) plus #3 Yabu etc

And likely keep Lakers 18 Kings 19.

Not a bad spot to be in, extends the window a little and Hayward and Butler could both be there in 2020-2021 when I think you realistically have a shot to compete.

Basically kicking the ball just a little further down the road. An absolute no brainer for Ainge if Fultz isnt his guy in this draft.

And if Pelicans make Davis available what team can trump Lakers 18 Kings 19 Clippers 19 and 2 young players?
Yep spot on. We could have IT/Butler/Hayward/Horford and still add a Michael Porter, Jr and another top 6-8 piece in next year's draft. Or trade those picks. Ainge's #1 goal must be to have the C's ready to dominate in 3-4 years, but they are so loaded that they could be a possible Finals team in the interim. Just an unprecedentedly amazing rebuild.
 

southshoresoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
5,249
Canton MA
I don't think this thing is close at all. And i dont think it gets done without Kings 19 in addition to Lakers 18.

If the rationale behind passing on Fultz is kicking the ball down the road a couple years one pick doesnt do it.

Although 2 top 5 picks in that 2018 class would be pretty damn sweet. How does a Doncic Jackson Jaylen Ayton/Porter core sound?
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
45,589
I find it interesting that the guy leaking out of the Philly front office still hedged some on the price. If it was really locked in like he's saying why would there be a "possibly" on another pick.
Combined with the Boston front office leaking that they want to bring Fultz in again, and the Philly guy being so adamant (though it could just be Pompey saying that) that Jackson is Boston's guy when he hasn't agreed to a workout with them makes me think this is close, but definitely not 100% agreed.
Agreed. I bet they are haggling on the 3rd piece. Sure the foundation is 1 for 3/Lakers 2018 but Ainge rightfully is looking for more. If Sixers put Kings 2019 or their own 2018 or 2019 in the deal, I bet this gets done. If not, see you on draft night.
 

dbn

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 10, 2007
7,785
La Mancha.
Some video.
General feeling I see online is that Celtics fans want to keep the pick and take Fultz.
SSS, but it seems he can make a layup against zero defenders. Is there something else we're supposed to take away from that video?
 

Ed Hillel

Wants to be startin somethin
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
39,806
Here
Making a trade early so Fultz doesn't wah wah seems stupid. Let's please wait it out, Danny.

Or, take it Monday if they throw in Sac's pick. Otherwise, hold out. Get value for doing this early.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
31,941
I don't think this thing is close at all. And i dont think it gets done without Kings 19 in addition to Lakers 18.

If the rationale behind passing on Fultz is kicking the ball down the road a couple years one pick doesnt do it.

Although 2 top 5 picks in that 2018 class would be pretty damn sweet. How does a Doncic Jackson Jaylen Ayton/Porter core sound?
I'd assume the rationale behind trading Fultz is that you prefer another player, or at the very least don't prefer Fultz to a number of other players. An unprotected lottery pick plus anything is a pretty decent return to move down 2 spots if you don't think there is a tier break after 1 or 2, It's not highway robbery, but it is definitely a strong value play.

Yep spot on. We could have IT/Butler/Hayward/Horford and still add a Michael Porter, Jr and another top 6-8 piece in next year's draft. Or trade those picks. Ainge's #1 goal must be to have the C's ready to dominate in 3-4 years, but they are so loaded that they could be a possible Finals team in the interim. Just an unprecedentedly amazing rebuild.
The big decision though is what to do with IT, by 3-4 years from now if you max him he's likely an albatross, if you don't you need to find a PG to go with that group (and this year is loaded with PGs where next year is not). I think in some ways a PG pick this year is a signal that IT is gone, a wing opens it up more to the possibility that they keep him.

It does seem like that is a huge possibilty. If you can get #5 and # 10, that means you get either Tatum or Jackson, then pick up someone like Markannen or Smith.
I really doubt it personally. The Celtics are really not in a great spot to add 2 top 10 picks this year, beyond roster space and playing time concerns it makes getting cap room for Hayward harder.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
29,937
If he turns Fultz into the Lakers 18 unprotected, another 1st from Philly, and then swaps 3 for 5/10 and gets (say) Tatum and Zach Collins that would be a pretty nice haul.
 

shawnrbu

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
38,182
The Land of Fist Pumps
Cannot see Philly giving up the 3, 2018 Lakers and 2019 Kings to move up 2 spots in this draft. Not one rumor has even indicated that both those unprotected lottery picks are on the table together. It is a pipedream.

Would anyone last year have been happy to trade the 3, 2017 Nets and 2018 Nets to draft Simmons?
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Cannot see Philly giving up the 3, 2018 Lakers and 2019 Kings to move up 2 spots in this draft. Not one rumor has even indicated that both those unprotected lottery picks are on the table together. It is a pipedream.

Would anyone last year have been happy to trade the 3, 2017 Nets and 2018 Nets to draft Simmons?
It might be a dream or a pipe dream. But really, it just depends on how much Philly wants Fultz.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
54,476
deep inside Guido territory
Cannot see Philly giving up the 3, 2018 Lakers and 2019 Kings to move up 2 spots in this draft. Not one rumor has even indicated that both those unprotected lottery picks are on the table together. It is a pipedream.

Would anyone last year have been happy to trade the 3, 2017 Nets and 2018 Nets to draft Simmons?
Did anyone see the Nets trading all those picks for Paul Pierce and KG? You never know what a desperate team will do when their mind is dead set on getting a player.
 

Captaincoop

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
13,487
Santa Monica, CA
I don't think this thing is close at all. And i dont think it gets done without Kings 19 in addition to Lakers 18.

If the rationale behind passing on Fultz is kicking the ball down the road a couple years one pick doesnt do it.

Although 2 top 5 picks in that 2018 class would be pretty damn sweet. How does a Doncic Jackson Jaylen Ayton/Porter core sound?
2 top five picks next year would require some major luck. That Lakers team is going to win 35+ games.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
and how desperate they are, after almost a decade of the Plan, to cash in on their own asset oversupply. Draft picks can burn a hole in your pocket.
And even if they traded the Lakers '18 and the Kings '19, they'd still have their own first in both of those years.
It's a haul, and I'd be happy as hell with the trade. But I don't think it's a pipe dream.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
31,941
2 top five picks next year would require some major luck. That Lakers team is going to win 35+ games.
maybe. It'll be interesting to see what happens with them, they were trying to tank this year, but at the same time they didn't really have any injury problems. An injury or two and playing a rookie big minutes could see them right back where they were this year. Especially if Ingram doesn't improve. I can't see them playing the vets big minutes in place of the kids just to prevent the pick from being good. They should and probably will play the young guys and not worry about wins or losses as long as they get development time.
 

Captaincoop

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
13,487
Santa Monica, CA
maybe. It'll be interesting to see what happens with them, they were trying to tank this year, but at the same time they didn't really have any injury problems. An injury or two and playing a rookie big minutes could see them right back where they were this year. Especially if Ingram doesn't improve. I can't see them playing the vets big minutes in place of the kids just to prevent the pick from being good. They should and probably will play the young guys and not worry about wins or losses as long as they get development time.
Magic Johnson will not have the patience or humility for that. I'd bet anything they improve.