The offseason heading into 2018

[Buzzkill Pauley]

2018 is the best possible opportunity for this team to win a World Series for at least the next half-decade and possibly longer. And while Chavis and Groome are easily the best prospects in the system, neither projects to be a likely game-changer. So I would be fine cashing them in to win in 2018 -- they are not going to be the difference between the 2021 Red Sox being good or not being good.

That said, Machado seems like an odd fit. You're certainly not going to play him at 3B, not with Devers slated to play an important role for the next 5+ years and Machado wanting to play SS. So he only makes sense if you assume that you're not going to re-sign Bogaerts long-term anyway -- best-case scenario, you re-sign Machado; worst-case, you're in the SS market a couple years earlier than you'd planned. Okay. But then you have to have a plan for a Bogaerts trade that either makes you better now or extends the window, and it's hard to imagine that coming together right now.

The logic of 1) signing JD Martinez, 2) being prepared to trade Chavis and/or Groome for an impact rental if needed in July, 3) looking for high-upside relief arms who could help replace Kimbrel, and 4) trying to figure out which of Bogaerts/Bradley won't be here long-term and making a trade after the season to try to extend the window still seems pretty obvious to me.

Well, with all this being the case, I just want to say it’s a darn good thing the Sox pulled out all the stops back in the offseason after 2010, the last time they they had their best possible opportunity to win a World Series for at least the next half-decade, and possibly longer.

 

[MikeM]

There is no chance they earn less than 300 million..

Sure there is, since it's hardly an absolute given that both or even one of those guys has the huge contract year season still needed to propel them towards that reality.

Especially in Machado's case imo. Another year similar to 2017 and he's no longer even in the reasonable discussion outside the most extreme of WAR value based evaluations imo. Which even then you are really left looking at maybe that one select sucker GM out there that might be tempted to make the reach.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Sure there is, since it's hardly an absolute given that both or even one of those guys has the huge contract year season still needed to propel them towards that reality.

Especially in Machado's case imo. Another year similar to 2017 and he's no longer even in the reasonable discussion outside the most extreme of WAR value based evaluations imo. Which even then you are really left looking at maybe that one select sucker GM out there that might be tempted to make the reach.

Come on. 30 seconds on fangraphs should be enough to see that last year is an aberration for Machado that won't be repeated. Never mind if you dig deeper. Few batters hit the ball harder than him last year and his babip was 35 points lower than hours career average.

 

[chawson]

I just don't see the Machado deal happening. It makes no sense to expend significant prospect resources (not to mention doing roster gymnastics to move Bogaerts or Devers to make room) for a one-year rental, especially if there is likely also an intra-division tax just to get into the conversation.

And if the Orioles (and Machado) are willing to entertain a window to negotiate an extension, then the potential trade partners will increase to include just about anyone who is eying Machado as a free agent signing for next winter. More suitors means the price goes up, probably to a place where the Red Sox can't compete.

I mostly completely agree with this.

It’s no less unlikely, but the only scenario I can imagine where our offer fits the Orioles’ needs more than any other team is if we assume one of their underwater contracts.

It’s a cringeworthy thought, but interesting nonetheless. Provided there’s a negotiating window and Machado would want to sign here, would it be worth it to take on Chris Davis’s 5/$105M contract in a Machado trade?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

It’s a cringeworthy thought, but interesting nonetheless. Provided there’s a negotiating window and Machado would want to sign here, would it be worth it to take on Chris Davis’s 5/$105M contract in a Machado trade?

Not worth it. Not when the combination of a Machado extension and Davis' contract would certainly put the payroll over the $247M level where penalties would be steep and affect draft position. Not to mention it creates a not so easily remedied logjam with Davis, Moreland and Hanley all on the roster. And then there's what to do with Bogaerts or Devers to give Machado a position to play.

Way more complicated than I think Dombrowski is willing to make things.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

I'm confused about the Machado love. IMO he's a bit of a douche who doesn't seem to love BOS anyway. But quite apart from that, he's never hit .300, never slugged .550 or OPS'd .900. He's a 60% base stealer. He hasn't played SS regularly b/c of Hardy.

I get that he's young and projectible but he hasn't reached Trout or Harper levels yet everyone seems to place him at that level. I don't want to trade our top 2 prospects and then sign him to a 10 year deal that he hasn't come close to earning yet. I sure as hell don't want to take on Davis' deal. Jaysus...

Just keep X and extend Betts.

 

[billy ashley]

I'm confused about the Machado love. IMO he's a bit of a douche who doesn't seem to love BOS anyway. But quite apart from that, he's never hit .300, never slugged .550 or OPS'd .900. He's a 60% base stealer. He hasn't played SS regularly b/c of Hardy.

I get that he's young and projectible but he hasn't reached Trout or Harper levels yet everyone seems to place him at that level. I don't want to trade our top 2 prospects and then sign him to a 10 year deal that he hasn't come close to earning yet. I sure as hell don't want to take on Davis' deal. Jaysus...

Just keep X and extend Betts.

He's an elite defensive 3B, who has put up solid .800 OPS most of his career and as you point out, he's still crazy young.

Before last year, that mid .800 OPS was way above average.

That said, I agree with you that I'd rather Boston just extend Betts. Machado strikes me as "riskier" than his profile would suggest. He's suffered a couple leg injuries and while last seasons' numbers can be explained away to a large degree, he's still coming off the worst season of his stellar career.

 

[nvalvo]

I'm confused about the Machado love. IMO he's a bit of a douche who doesn't seem to love BOS anyway. But quite apart from that, he's never hit .300, never slugged .550 or OPS'd .900. He's a 60% base stealer. He hasn't played SS regularly b/c of Hardy.

He's hit .294. He's slugged .533. He's OPS'd .876. Scouts and stats concur that he's a capable defensive SS.

He's a comparable player to Mookie Betts — high-end defender, 130s wRC+ — but with less baserunning value. Next year is his age 26 season.

I don't think we should trade a ton for one year of him, but if we could trade less than a ton or get more than a year, it's worth looking into.

 

[moondog80]

Encarnacion took a three-year deal because he was 34 years old. Martinez is 30--If he takes a pillow contract it'll be for one year, not three.

You're probably right that three years is asking for too much, but I don't see him taking a one year deal. He had his career high in SLG by 137 points this year, and next year's free agent class is far more crowded. It would be one hell of a gamble to think that he will be in a position to see his market improve next year. I think he just takes the best deal he can get, even if that means less than he expected.

 

[grimshaw]

He's hit .294. He's slugged .533. He's OPS'd .876. Scouts and stats concur that he's a capable defensive SS.

He's a comparable player to Mookie Betts — high-end defender, 130s wRC+ — but with less baserunning value. Next year is his age 26 season.

I don't think we should trade a ton for one year of him, but if we could trade less than a ton or get more than a year, it's worth looking into.

Reminds me a lot of Scott Rolen, except Machado has been arguably better. Both came up very young (21 in Rolen's case) were the best fielders at their position and had wRC+ around 130 at that stage in their careers.

Rolen got even better for a few years.

 

[grimshaw]

Sure there is, since it's hardly an absolute given that both or even one of those guys has the huge contract year season still needed to propel them towards that reality.

Especially in Machado's case imo. Another year similar to 2017 and he's no longer even in the reasonable discussion outside the most extreme of WAR value based evaluations imo. Which even then you are really left looking at maybe that one select sucker GM out there that might be tempted to make the reach.

Scott Boras thinks his 30 year old future DH is worth 7 years 210 million. How much do you think he asks for Bryce Harper? I bet he looks at Stanton, tacks on two years and asks for 15/475+.
Good luck to any team trying to get him under 400.

If they both shit the bed or get hurt, then I'm sure a lot will be knocked off that - but I would find it hard to believe that either of them are (worst case scenario) average regulars.

26 year old MVP candidates almost never come along as free agents. Kershaw is maybe the only one in recent history.

 

[sean1562]

And if he were to somehow suck at ss, you can always move him back. But I’d be willing to bet he is a pretty great defensive ss.

Regardless, he won’t sign an extension here before free agency so I wouldn’t bother.

This next year for Harper is huge. I think he needs an mvp like seasonof full health to get one of the insane deals

 

[MikeM]

I'm confused about the Machado love. IMO he's a bit of a douche who doesn't seem to love BOS anyway. But quite apart from that, he's never hit .300, never slugged .550 or OPS'd .900. He's a 60% base stealer. He hasn't played SS regularly b/c of Hardy.

I get that he's young and projectible but he hasn't reached Trout or Harper levels yet everyone seems to place him at that level.

Exactly this, and you forgot to mention his OBP has never been stand out either. Harper's already visible triple crown offensive upside is going to be a much easier market sell imo. He can be your douchy face of the franchise for the next decade with that type of offense.

I just personally don't see Machado being on the same bankable tier atm, even if his production does bounce back to 2015/16 levels. Especially if we are talking an eternity 10 years at $300m+, where I'd honestly expect Fangraphs to like that contract a lot more then an actual scenario where it's a slam dunk that there will be multiple GMs lined up to and willing to make that leap of faith.

Speaking strictly from a Sox POV, if I'm getting behind a 10 year mega contract I want more visible offensive upside and room for latter decline (or even current, since he wouldn't be the first early starter to peak out in his 3rd/4th season) then Machado is currently offering. Especially while factoring in a surrounding LT concern that actually has some real teeth behind it now.

 

[grimshaw]

I just personally don't see Machado being on the same bankable tier atm, even if his production does bounce back to 2015/16 levels. Especially if we are talking an eternity 10 years at $300m+, where I'd honestly expect Fangraphs to like that contract a lot more then an actual scenario where it's a slam dunk that there will be multiple GMs lined up to and willing to make that leap of faith.

It's fine if you think his bat isn't that great and if this year was closer to what he'll do. I disagree but neither of us have a crystal ball. Steamer is projecting him to be a beast again and the numbers suggest he was unlucky last year - but that's kind of the best we've got to go on. But the bolded doesn't make sense to me.

Nolan Arenado last year had a wRC+ of 129 which is a bit less than what Machado did the previous two years in his age 23-24 seasons. Do you like him more? If Machado did that as a shortstop he would have been #2 among them.

I also think you are underrating defense. He was a slightly above average bat last year but still earned 3.5 wins. To me, that is his floor during his prime and makes his contract less of a performance risk. Defense is no longer something that GM's gloss over - though I'm sure Theo wouldn't mind a do-over with Heyward.

I don't think he'll get close to Harper, but I think he'll be on par with Stanton.

 

[jon abbey]

Wow, I went to look up Arenado's home/road splits and they were sizable but Machado's last year were bigger. He was awful away from home last year, .895 OPS at home and .666 on the road. That is worse than Pujols' or Bautista's overall OPS (.672/.674), I had no idea.

 

[MikeM]

It's fine if you think his bat isn't that great and if this year was closer to what he'll do. I disagree but neither of us have a crystal ball. Steamer is projecting him to be a beast again and the numbers suggest he was unlucky last year - but that's kind of the best we've got to go on. But the bolded doesn't make sense to me.

Nolan Arenado last year had a wRC+ of 129 which is a bit less than what Machado did the previous two years in his age 23-24 seasons. Do you like him more? If Machado did that as a shortstop he would have been #2 among them.

I also think you are underrating defense. He was a slightly above average bat last year but still earned 3.5 wins. To me, that is his floor during his prime and makes his contract less of a performance risk. Defense is no longer something that GM's gloss over - though I'm sure Theo wouldn't mind a do-over with Heyward.

I don't think he'll get close to Harper, but I think he'll be on par with Stanton.

If I'm underrating defense it's in relationship to the type of contract and commitment level being discussed.

Generally speaking, I think people are also getting too caught up in the age factor and somewhat underrating the front end appeal component that goes into these extremely long mega contracts. For me a .280/.350/.500 bat guy just isn't bringing enough of that latter to the table. At least in terms of where it's more likely a GM is going to view the premium costs and overall risk involved as *just* a couple extra years at the end of a 10 year contract, or *just* an extra $100m to be paid out latter.

I don't think Boras has a problem getting him more then Heyward got, but I am guessing he runs into a struggle putting him on the Stanton tier (which happened under fairly unique circumstances). Especially if the Dodgers re-up on Kershaw, and given my own belief that for all the talk about a Yankees fit Cashman is playing too smart a hand lately to follow the Stanton acquisition up by getting sucked into that potential LT killer hole.

 

[MikeM]

It's fine if you think his bat isn't that great and if this year was closer to what he'll do

I also wasn't necessarily claiming this will be the case either btw. Just pointing out that I certainly wouldn't want us to be the one atm betting $300m on a batted ball profile that it won't be.

 

[jon abbey]

I don't think Boras has a problem getting him more then Heyward got, but I am guessing he runs into a struggle putting him on the Stanton tier (which happened under fairly unique circumstances).

Just s small thing, but Boras isn't Machado's agent, Dan Lozano is.

 

[simplicio]

I'm confused about the Machado love. IMO he's a bit of a douche who doesn't seem to love BOS anyway. But quite apart from that, he's never hit .300, never slugged .550 or OPS'd .900. He's a 60% base stealer. He hasn't played SS regularly b/c of Hardy.

I get that he's young and projectible but he hasn't reached Trout or Harper levels yet everyone seems to place him at that level. I don't want to trade our top 2 prospects and then sign him to a 10 year deal that he hasn't come close to earning yet. I sure as hell don't want to take on Davis' deal. Jaysus...

Just keep X and extend Betts.

Yet he's been worth $200m over 6 seasons (two of those partial) per fangraphs, is one of the premier defensive 3b in the game, has been worth 6.7+ dWAR/6.2+ fWAR in three of his four full seasons, has hit 33+ HR in each of the last 3 seasons and turns 26 in July. I agree with you insofar as not taking on Chris Davis' contract to get him for a year, but he certainly looks worth a 10/300 deal after that.

 

[grimshaw]

If I'm underrating defense it's in relationship to the type of contract and commitment level being discussed.

Generally speaking, I think people are also getting too caught up in the age factor and somewhat underrating the front end appeal component that goes into these extremely long mega contracts. For me a .280/.350/.500 bat guy just isn't bringing enough of that latter to the table. At least in terms of where it's more likely a GM is going to view the premium costs and overall risk involved as *just* a couple extra years at the end of a 10 year contract, or *just* an extra $100m to be paid out latter.

It's not just the defense you are underrating, it's the position he plays. If he signs as a shortstop - medium if - he'd be a top 3 offensive shortstop. You can't just look at the bat in a vacuum.

I think Cano's contract is the negotiating point. His bat was better than Machado's but his defensive value wasn't as good and he was 31. His 10/240 contract would be worth 10/275 in 2018.

I don't know how you can discount the age factor either. If his contract is shorter - like 8 years, then he'll get a higher AAV since he'll be in his prime years. If he gets something like 10 years, then he'll be 36 when it ends and not in his 40's like some of the other mega contract guys.

I think he gets 10-12 if he ends up hitting like 15-16 and plays a good SS somewhere this year. 8-10 if he splits the difference from the past two years and only plays 3rd.

 

[DanoooME]

26 year old MVP candidates almost never come along as free agents. Kershaw is maybe the only one in recent history.

Except Kershaw never was a free agent. He signed that deal still under arb rules as a less than 6 year player.

 

[soxhop411]

 

[nvalvo]

Looks like some Rogers on MLB producer reads my posts here, LOL.

I proposed both the WS and the Jays as potential JDM landing spots two weeks ago: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/winter-meetings-2018-rumors-and-speculation.21807/page-5#post-2581496

 

[chawson]

With the benefits of "tanking" clearly demonstrated by the Cubs, Nationals and Astros, it seems like more teams may be quietly in a race to the bottom than anywhere else.

Right now, there's really no incentive for most teams to add good players. For most of baseball, adding a two-win free agent only decreases their chance at high draft picks and international signing money. In the long term, that's arguably negative value for a bad or middling team.

Furthermore, this "accelerationist" approach has to be a wildly attractive option for owners. Even if it fails to build a superteam, it's way more profitable than hovering around the middle fighting for a marginal chance at a wild card.

AL playoff teams
HOU - 51.3
NYY - 47.2
CLE - 46.7
BOS - 44.4
LAA - 42.1

The rest:
TOR - 35.6
MIN - 34.2
SEA - 33.4
TB - 31.2
TEX - 30.1
BAL - 28.6
OAK - 27.6
DET - 22.1
KC - 19.3
CWS - 13.5

NL playoff teams
LAD - 49.8
CHC - 47.7
WAS - 45.2
STL - 42.8

The rest:
NYM - 35.6
ARI - 34.0
PIT - 33.3
SF - 33.1
COL - 31.3
PHI - 30.4
CIN - 26.7
MIL - 25.2
SD - 25.0
ATL - 24.9
MIA - 22.7

Surely, something will happen that changes this forecast. But teams can't plan for that. GMs are likely betting that a league with this many rebuilding teams will create a summer buyer's market, and it's hard to justify making an investment that won't directly impact your chances in October. (This is why the reliever market is the only market to have any movement.)

The AL playoff outlook is already well determined. The Angels added Upton, Otani, Kinsler and Cozart, "winning the offseason" and vaulting into a playoff tier. The Blue Jays seem within striking distance at seven wins behind, but since they're in the same division as two other playoff teams, odds are slim they'd snag a wild card spot if someone falls out, especially when their primary competition is Minnesota, who get to play the Royals, Tigers, and White Sox 60 times.

For the Sox, we'd need to lose nine projected wins to the Blue Jays or Twins to miss the playoffs. That's even before we add anything else, which we will. I'd rather go for the division than the wild card, but with the playoff picture so well defined, you can almost squint and see some playoff strategy from here. Would you rather the Red Sox play the wild card winner (likely the Angels) and face the Indians in a short series, who will almost surely have the best record in the AL playing in a division with the three worst teams in baseball? Or would you rather play the Astros again? How much is the difference worth?

The NL is a little more up in the air, but not much. The Rockies, D-Backs, Giants, Mets, Pirates, and maybe Phillies could all contend for a single wild card spot, though the Pirates have an uphill battle.

What this means, from what I can see, is that the market of available players is flooded. Not only do middling teams avoid the free agent market, but they may see an incentive to trade away their good players at discounts, accelerating the rebuild. However, the market for these players—the clear playoff teams and a couple intrepid organizations looking in—is incredibly small. The Nats need a catcher; the Indians an outfielder; the Cubs another starter—but their primary competition mostly doesn't and there's little reason to bite.

 

[Sampo Gida]

Wow, I went to look up Arenado's home/road splits and they were sizable but Machado's last year were bigger. He was awful away from home last year, .895 OPS at home and .666 on the road. That is worse than Pujols' or Bautista's overall OPS (.672/.674), I had no idea.

Seasonal splits can be quite variable. I tend to look at career splits as having more value.that said the career numbers are sizable

OPS (H/A)
Manny Machado - 858/754 (104)
XB 807/689 (dif 118)
Pedroia 856/759 (dif 97)
Aaron Judge 1116/865 (dif 251)

Just throwing the last one in as a tease. SSS for Judge

Yeah, Mannys numbers giving me pause. Hasnt really done great at any park in AL East except Camden Yards. His 2016 numbers were rather neutral H/A but regression kicked in big time in 2017

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Yeah, Mannys numbers giving me pause. Hasnt really done great at any park in AL East except Camden Yards. His 2016 numbers were rather neutral H/A but regression kicked in big time in 2017

Wait, you think 2016 is the big outlier?

2012: .769/.707
2013: .752/.740
2014: .879/.640
2015: .906/.816
2016: .885/.868
2017: .895/.666

That's two seasons with massive differences which stand out as likely not particularly reliable samples. Especially when you look at Machado's strikeout and walk rates, launch angles, and his contact and swing rates. He was almost exactly the same hitter in 2017 as he was in 2016 with two notable differences: 4.1% MORE hard contact in 2017 (at the expense of 3.2% soft contact) and his 2017 BABIP was 36 points lower than his career rate.

Again, no one hit the ball above 95 mph more times than Manny Machado last year. It's insane how hard people are twisting themselves into pretzels to dismiss the idea that he's one of the truly elite players in the league.

 

[Sampo Gida]

It occurs to me that with so much shared revenue and with RSN deals being what they are, not to mention franchise valuations rising for even bad teams , that there really is not much of a financial incentive for teams to Win. Post season revenue does not seem significant and attendance revenue is just not as important to a teams bottom line, especially if they dont exceeed the red line in payroll.

So really the only way to get most of teams competing is a significant stick,or perhaps sweetening the pot for playoff teams.

Besides a salary floor . Maybe a demotion to AAA for a year for teams who finish last in their league twice in a 5 year period (ina. Different league than their affiliated AAA team) .Some of the MLB players on the team could be rented out for that year to other teams with players permission although all salaries are guaranteed to the player.

Paying a 10 million dollar tax for being eligible for a 2nd top 10 pick in a 5 year period, and 20 million for a 3rd top 10 pick.

As for sweetening the pot. Give all playoff teams the number 11-20 picks instead of penalizing them and those middle teams draft 10 spots lower. Give those middle teams a reason to make the post season

 

[Sampo Gida]

Wait, you think 2016 is the big outlier?

2012: .769/.707
2013: .752/.740
2014: .879/.640
2015: .906/.816
2016: .885/.868
2017: .895/.666

That's two seasons with massive differences which stand out as likely not particularly reliable samples. Especially when you look at Machado's strikeout and walk rates, launch angles, and his contact and swing rates. He was almost exactly the same hitter in 2017 as he was in 2016 with two notable differences: 4.1% MORE hard contact in 2017 (at the expense of 3.2% soft contact) and his 2017 BABIP was 36 points lower than his career rate.

Again, no one hit the ball above 95 mph more times than Manny Machado last year. It's insane how hard people are twisting themselves into pretzels to dismiss the idea that he's one of the truly elite players in the league.

Pretty sure I said I take career numbers over individual seasons which can be volatile and mentioned that while his 2016 numbers were neutral they regressed big time in 2017

As for Mannys 2017 overall numbers he was certainly awful looking in the first half but rebounded nicely in the second half. My comment was limited to his H-A performance on his overall numbers. Consistency is undervalued IMO and is not always easy to know whats just random variance and whats not

Part of the BABIP issues was a significant drop in LD rate. GB and FB simply go for outs more often all else being equal. I assume this got fixed in the 2nd half but the first half numbers could not be overcome.

Maybe there was a health issue in the first half. Given his knee issues thats possible and of no little importance. I know stuff like Toradol may not be available on some teams on the road since it must be administered by a doctor so perhaps that explains some of the H-A variation. Just speculation on my part of course

 

[snowmanny]

It occurs to me that with so much shared revenue and with RSN deals being what they are, not to mention franchise valuations rising for even bad teams , that there really is not much of a financial incentive for teams to Win. Post season revenue does not seem significant and attendance revenue is just not as important to a teams bottom line, especially if they dont exceeed the red line in payroll.

So really the only way to get most of teams competing is a significant stick,or perhaps sweetening the pot for playoff teams.

Besides a salary floor . Maybe a demotion to AAA for a year for teams who finish last in their league twice in a 5 year period (ina. Different league than their affiliated AAA team) .Some of the MLB players on the team could be rented out for that year to other teams with players permission although all salaries are guaranteed to the player.

Paying a 10 million dollar tax for being eligible for a 2nd top 10 pick in a 5 year period, and 20 million for a 3rd top 10 pick.

As for sweetening the pot. Give all playoff teams the number 11-20 picks instead of penalizing them and those middle teams draft 10 spots lower. Give those middle teams a reason to make the post season

There has to be correlations between winning and tv ratings and tv ratings and revenue, right?

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Pretty sure I said I take career numbers over individual seasons which can be volatile and mentioned that while his 2016 numbers were neutral they regressed big time in 2017

Then you apparently have no idea how regression works.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

The offseason is officially stalled when people start talking about demoting MLB teams to the minors if they stink.

 

[MikeM]

Again, no one hit the ball above 95 mph more times than Manny Machado last year. It's insane how hard people are twisting themselves into pretzels to dismiss the idea that he's one of the truly elite players in the league.

Some would argue there is some equal pretzel twisting going in with how much emphasis/predictive value you seem be putting into that 95mph+ figure. Cano has finished 3/2/1 overall there over the last 3 years, and 2 of them were hardly anything resembling elite. Taking a peak at last year's top 10 list, most went on the have down years statistically. Half of which which appear to be significant drops. Altuve's MVP season was 93rd on that list last year.

If there is a smoking gun value to be found there making the strong argument that Machado (who for all the great hard hit ball data there over the last 3 years has yet to produce the actual result of an elite offensive season) is already worth going in on right now at $300m+, which is basically the focal point that started the counter debate, I'm personally not buying in on it yet.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Some would argue there is some equal pretzel twisting going in with how much emphasis/predictive value you seem be putting into that 95mph+ figure. Cano has finished 3/2/1 overall there over the last 3 years, and 2 of them were hardly anything resembling elite. Taking a peak at last year's top 10 list, most went on the have down years statistically. Half of which which appear to be significant drops. Altuve's MVP season was 93rd on that list last year.

If there is a smoking gun value to be found there making the strong argument that Machado (who for all the great hard hit ball data there over the last 3 years has yet to produce the actual result of an elite offensive season) is already worth going in on right now at $300m+, which is basically the focal point that started the counter debate, I'm personally not buying in on it yet.

Honest question: Do you believe Mookie Betts was an elite hitter in 2016 at age 23? Because that was basically what Machado was at the plate in 2015 (age 23) and 2016 (age 24). And even in his down year this past season, which was quite similar to Mookie's 2017, he belted 30 home runs.

Also, the point of the 95 mph stat is that he hits the ball hard as consistently as anyone in the game. Players who hit the ball hard can be expected to have success on balls in play. That he didn't last year does not mean that hitting the ball hard might not correlate with excellent results. It means he was unlucky.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Some would argue there is some equal pretzel twisting going in with how much emphasis/predictive value you seem be putting into that 95mph+ figure. Cano has finished 3/2/1 overall there over the last 3 years, and 2 of them were hardly anything resembling elite. Taking a peak at last year's top 10 list, most went on the have down years statistically. Half of which which appear to be significant drops. Altuve's MVP season was 93rd on that list last year.

What the Cano example shows is that hitting the ball hard is not necessarily enough in itself to produce elite offense; it also matters that you hit the ball hard in the air. Cano has always been a ground ball hitter, but the past 3-4 years this tendency has grown extreme, with rates over 50%, while his K rates have also gone up. He's also been losing speed, which is a particularly bad thing to do when you're becoming more of a ground ball hitter--this affects not only his BABIP (which has dipped below .300 the past two years for the first time since 2008) but also his ISO (less speed means fewer legged-out doubles--his doubles totals, consistently in the 40s for most of his career, have dipped below 35 the past three years).

What happened to Machado this past year is not the same. His FB rates have been fairly constant the past three years, peaking in 2016, but two things happened this year: his line drive rate hit a career low of 15.8%, and his BABIP on line drives also plummeted to under .600 (league average is typically around .680), even though he was hitting them harder than ever. The result is that he had 30 fewer hits on line drives in 2017 than 2016. His fly ball BABIP and hit total also went down, though not as sharply. His overall BABIP thus went down from .297 in 2015 and .309 in 2016 to .265 in 2017.

There may well be more to all of that than bad batted-ball luck, but it seems awfully likely that luck played a significant role in it.

 

[MikeM]

Honest question: Do you believe Mookie Betts was an elite hitter in 2016 at age 23? Because that was basically what Machado was at the plate in 2015 (age 23) and 2016 (age 24). And even in his down year this past season, which was quite similar to Mookie's 2017, he belted 30 home runs.

My own bias against absolute WAR values and (over) aggressive peak projection possibilities put aside, I'd agree there is a pretty good argument to be made that Mookie had an elite overall season in 2016.

But I'd also say the same thing there that I'm saying here on Machado now. Mookie's bat wasn't on the truly elite type of tier that would help make me more comfortable in the idea of handing him a 10y/$300m+ contract. The batted ball data in itself ultimately isn't enough to push me off what is generally going to be a hard pass stance on those type of straight up risks either. In regards to my own preferences on that, I'd want more visible upside with the bat to bank on.

 

[Max Power]

Honest question: Do you believe Mookie Betts was an elite hitter in 2016 at age 23?

No. His baserunning and defense made him a great player in 2016, but his bat alone wasn't on the elite level. He was clearly a step behind Trout, Miggy, Papi, and the rest of the guys up over 150 OPS+.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Related question: where does the 95 MPH number come from? By which I mean, why is 95 MPH a significant dividing line for exit velocity? Is there an underlying analysis that demonstrates that 95 MPH should be the line for determining "hard hit," as opposed to 93.5 or 97, etc.? I looked at Statcast's glossary of terms but didn't see an explanation. I don't know, so I'm asking... thx.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Related question: where does the 95 MPH number come from? By which I mean, why is 95 MPH a significant dividing line for exit velocity? Is there an underlying analysis that demonstrates that 95 MPH should be the line for determining "hard hit," as opposed to 93.5 or 97, etc.? I looked at Statcast's glossary of terms but didn't see an explanation. I don't know, so I'm asking... thx.

95+ is a sortable stat at Baseball Savant so it's easily accessible but if you hit the ball over 90 and at 19-35 degrees you've got a good shot at a double or a home run.

 

[MikeM]

Curious what Mike Moustakas' asking price actually is atm, as direct rumors surrounding him have been almost non-existent this winter.

Or why if you are KC for that matter, and apparently hard up to hand out a big contract this winter, Moose wouldn't be the safer guy to aim at keeping over Hosmer.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Curious what Mike Moustakas' asking price actually is atm, as direct rumors surrounding him have been almost non-existent this winter.

Or why if you are KC for that matter, and apparently hard up to hand out a big contract this winter, Moose wouldn't be the safer guy to aim at keeping over Hosmer.

We should stop using rumors as a gauge for the market. Nearly every big free agent is left out there with very few rumors for any of them.

 

[E5 Yaz]

We should stop using rumors as a gauge for the market.

New in town?

 

[DanoooME]

We should stop using rumors as a gauge for the market. Nearly every big free agent is left out there with very few rumors for any of them.

Which is just like Brian Kenny stumping for eliminating wins and saves. It makes sense, but let's be real...

 

[MikeM]

https://www.mlb.com/news/giants-seek-andrew-mccutchen-outfield-help/c-264252764

Sounding like the potential trade market on McCutchen might line up better then Machado with what the Sox realistically have to offer.

I still like him as the sleeper possibility that doesn't end up digging our future LT concern hole any deeper.

 

[grimshaw]

https://www.mlb.com/news/giants-seek-andrew-mccutchen-outfield-help/c-264252764

Sounding like the potential trade market on McCutchen might line up better then Machado with what the Sox realistically have to offer.

I still like him as the sleeper possibility that doesn't end up digging our future LT concern hole any deeper.

Is he going to be much better than anyone in their current outfield? He hasn't been anywhere near the MVP caliber player he was a few years ago. That one doesn't make sense to me.

 

[BaseballJones]

McCutchen had a bad year (for him) in 2016 but otherwise has been terrific. 121 ops+, 2.5 bWAR - not MVP numbers but really good.

That said, I don't really get why the Red Sox would be pursuing him, unless it's because they're planning on trading Betts, Bradley, or Benintendi (or some combination of them) for something else, then making a trade for McCutchen.

 

[BigPapiMPD34]

Figured I'd put together a list of players who could make sense to offer extensions later this offseason (after the roster construction has been completed) or next offseason. Feel free to move this to a new thread if that makes sense. Would love to hear what other people think too.

In my opinion, the biggest factors to keep an eye out for are: the length/AAV of an extension, the timing of when it could occur (this offseason vs next), and prioritization (if a couple priority players get locked up first, other players may not make the cut due to the budget).

Kimbrel - FA after 2018
- Worthwhile offering an extension to Kimbrel this offseason since our roster is constructed to contend now and the window should still be open for a few more years. Would make even more money if he gets to free agency. Don't have any current RPs who seem likely to become closer material, unless Thornburg cleanly recovers from his surgery. Most of our other RPs are simply solid middle-relief, set-up type guys. Kimbrel is proven, consistent, and able to handle the pressure of Boston. Other elite RPs due to become a FA next offseason include Britton, Doolittle, J. Wilson, C. Allen, A. Miller, Familia, Herrera, Melancon, Ramos, Robertson. There definitely will be other options, but you'd still have to pay for them. Thus, Kimbrell wouldn't necessarily be a big priority, but it would be worth checking in to see if you can get him to sign a reasonable extension.

- I'd assume they would need to offer at least 3 years and > his current 13M salary due to inflation. Chapman and Jansen got 5 years, but they were slightly younger. Whereas Davis just got 3 + a vesting option, but he is older. Thus, if 4 years is what he would likely get as a reliever, an extension offer for 3 years + a vesting option could be a good starting point. A FA deal of 4 x 17.25M = 69M would give him the highest AAV for a RP. A reasonable extension offer might be something like 3 x 16.25M = 48.75M, with a 16.25M vesting option based on # of games finished.

Pomeranz - FA after 2018
- I don't think an extension would be likely for Pomeranz. The Sox would still have Sale, Price, Porcello, and Rodriguez, which is a solid foundation for the rotation. Pomeranz would likely want to get paid based on his 2016-2017 seasons, but those are his only 2 full years in the big leagues as a starter. He has had arm issues throughout his career and would be entering his 30s. The risk would probably be too high, especially since it would give the Sox 4 SPs with big contract (reducing flexibility in the event one or more of them regress). I would ride him out for what will hopefully be his 3rd consecutive solid season on a playoff contender and then re-evaluate needs in the offseason.

Sale - FA after 2019
- Sale would definitely be one of the priority extension candidates, but this could still wait til next offseason. He could certainly seek 30M/year, but I'd be afraid to sign him up for too long of a contract due to his skinny frame and violent, high-effort delivery. I fully expect Sale to remain an elite SP for the time being, but if and when that elbow breaks down, his career could take a quick turn. We have him signed up for ages 29-30, so the contract would be starting at age 31. Price, Scherzer, and Verlander got 7 years entering age 30, while Greinke got 6 years entering age 32.

6 (maybe 7) years at 30M+ as a FA would seem to make sense for Sale, so maybe an extension could get done for just 5 years and a bit less than 30M. If they offered 5 x 27M = 135M, they could override his 2018/2019 options worth 26M and just call it a 7 x 23M = 161M to lower the AAV in future years.

Bogaerts - FA after 2019
- I would not offer any extension this offseason since his career is still in the "what exactly is he?" stage. If Bogaerts remains close to what he was in 2017, then he might not be worth the considerable contract extension that Boras would likely demand. However, if he breaks out or at least returns at his 2016 level, he could be worth an extension next offseason. His position would be the most important factor because it's not easy to acquire good hitting and competent defensive shortstops. The Sox also don't really have anyone in the pipeline to replace him.

Betts - FA after 2020
- Betts would definitely be one of the priority extension candidates, but this could still wait til next offseason. Entering his age 25 season, Mookie seems like one of the rare players that would be worth signing to an 8-year extension. He is very athletic/fast, healthy, and a very good all-around player. It's pretty likely that he will remain at least a good player throughout the duration of the contract and he seems to be very focused on his long-term career. Even if he ended up regressing towards the end of the contract (age 30-32), he would profile well as a 4th OF type due to his defense/baserunning.

- Even if the Sox were comfortable going to 8 years, Betts may actually prefer only 6 or 7 so that he can hit FA at age 30-31. An AAV of 20M seems reasonable, especially since it would buy the Sox 3+ extra years on top of his 3 years of service time. There haven't been any comparable extensions across the league since Trout/Freeman signed back in 2014 and Posey signed back in 2013. Trout is the only ever pre-arb player to get an extension of > 20M AAV. The Sox reportedly offered 5 x 20M last year, but he declined. Thus, the biggest unknown is whether or not he declined because he wanted 6-8 years or if he wanted >20M. I'd certainly be willing to go to 7 x 20M = 140M.

Bradley - FA after 2020
- I would not offer any extension this offseason since his career is still in the "what exactly is he?" stage. If JBJ remains close to what he was in 2017, then he might not be worth the considerable contract extension that Boras would likely demand. However, if he breaks out or at least returns at his 2016 level, he could be worth an extension next offseason. However, I would consider this very unlikely due to his position. OFs like Betts and Benintendi can easily move around, so its not like the Sox will specifically need a CF if JBJ were to leave as a FA.

Rodriguez - FA after 2021
- I would not offer any extension this offseason since his career is still in the "what exactly is he?" stage. He seems like he will probably settle in as a middle of the rotation starter, but he could become a #2 type. Or he could continue to stall due to injury flare-ups. E-Rod would be a decent guy to monitor for next offseason in case he has a break-out season.

Benintendi - FA after 2022
- I would consider an extension this offseason. Benny has only played 1 full season in the big leagues, but has set himself a pretty high floor with a 20/20 season. With his athleticism, speed, and sweet swing, he seems to be the type of player that could be consistently good for years to come. If he puts up another solid season in 2018, I would consider an extension offer. The point of the offer would be to tack on an extra 1-2 years to his remaining 4 years of service time, while hopefully reducing the AAV in the long-run (especially if he later breaks out and becomes an all-star caliber player). Certainly worth monitoring.

- If the Sox wanted to approach Benintendi now, Adam Eaton's extension after 1 full season could be a reasonable framework. The purpose would be to guarantee the player money now, while gaining an extra year of service time and avoiding a potential big increase during arbitration if he becomes a star. Maybe something along the lines of 6 x 6.5M = 39M, which would actually be almost identical to Pedroia's first extension.

 

[grimshaw]

McCutchen had a bad year (for him) in 2016 but otherwise has been terrific. 121 ops+, 2.5 bWAR - not MVP numbers but really good.

I wouldn't call that "terriific" since by that logic with Bradley at a 2.8 bWAR last season, and Benintendi at a 2.6, so were they. Presumably if they move Bradley then McCutchen takes over in centerfield, and adds about 8 additional million to the payroll for what may be a slight improvement just for a year. I realize McCutchen's ceiling is far higher than JBJ's but it would be asking a lot for him to be a huge upgrade over whatever they get from JBJ.

Plus then they'll need to fill the center field hole in 2019 and they'll have moved one of their best chips already.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I wouldn't call that "terriific" since by that logic with Bradley at a 2.8 bWAR last season, and Benintendi at a 2.6, so were they. Presumably if they move Bradley then McCutchen takes over in centerfield, and adds about 8 additional million to the payroll for what may be a slight improvement just for a year. I realize McCutchen's ceiling is far higher than JBJ's but it would be asking a lot for him to be a huge upgrade over whatever they get from JBJ.

Plus then they'll need to fill the center field hole in 2019 and they'll have moved one of their best chips already.

McCutchen can't play center anymore. He's a corner outfielder at this point in his career. They'd have to move Mookie or Benintendi there (probably the latter as you don't want to move the best defensive right fielder in the game off of his position if you don't have to).

I also wouldn't buy his 122 wRC+ as his baseline as he had a career best O-Contact% which is almost certainly going to regress in 2018, and his lowest swinging strike rate since 2011.

 

[Hawk68]

Figured I'd put together a list of players who could make sense to offer extensions later this offseason (after the roster construction has been completed) or next offseason. Feel free to move this to a new thread if that makes sense. Would love to hear what other people think too.

In my opinion, the biggest factors to keep an eye out for are: the length/AAV of an extension, the timing of when it could occur (this offseason vs next), and prioritization (if a couple priority players get locked up first, other players may not make the cut due to the budget).

Kimbrel - FA after 2018
- Worthwhile offering an extension to Kimbrel this offseason since our roster is constructed to contend now and the window should still be open for a few more years. Would make even more money if he gets to free agency. Don't have any current RPs who seem likely to become closer material, unless Thornburg cleanly recovers from his surgery. Most of our other RPs are simply solid middle-relief, set-up type guys. Kimbrel is proven, consistent, and able to handle the pressure of Boston. Other elite RPs due to become a FA next offseason include Britton, Doolittle, J. Wilson, C. Allen, A. Miller, Familia, Herrera, Melancon, Ramos, Robertson. There definitely will be other options, but you'd still have to pay for them. Thus, Kimbrell wouldn't necessarily be a big priority, but it would be worth checking in to see if you can get him to sign a reasonable extension.

- I'd assume they would need to offer at least 3 years and > his current 13M salary due to inflation. Chapman and Jansen got 5 years, but they were slightly younger. Whereas Davis just got 3 + a vesting option, but he is older. Thus, if 4 years is what he would likely get as a reliever, an extension offer for 3 years + a vesting option could be a good starting point. A FA deal of 4 x 17.25M = 69M would give him the highest AAV for a RP. A reasonable extension offer might be something like 3 x 16.25M = 48.75M, with a 16.25M vesting option based on # of games finished.

Pomeranz - FA after 2018
- I don't think an extension would be likely for Pomeranz. The Sox would still have Sale, Price, Porcello, and Rodriguez, which is a solid foundation for the rotation. Pomeranz would likely want to get paid based on his 2016-2017 seasons, but those are his only 2 full years in the big leagues as a starter. He has had arm issues throughout his career and would be entering his 30s. The risk would probably be too high, especially since it would give the Sox 4 SPs with big contract (reducing flexibility in the event one or more of them regress). I would ride him out for what will hopefully be his 3rd consecutive solid season on a playoff contender and then re-evaluate needs in the offseason.

Sale - FA after 2019
- Sale would definitely be one of the priority extension candidates, but this could still wait til next offseason. He could certainly seek 30M/year, but I'd be afraid to sign him up for too long of a contract due to his skinny frame and violent, high-effort delivery. I fully expect Sale to remain an elite SP for the time being, but if and when that elbow breaks down, his career could take a quick turn. We have him signed up for ages 29-30, so the contract would be starting at age 31. Price, Scherzer, and Verlander got 7 years entering age 30, while Greinke got 6 years entering age 32.

6 (maybe 7) years at 30M+ as a FA would seem to make sense for Sale, so maybe an extension could get done for just 5 years and a bit less than 30M. If they offered 5 x 27M = 135M, they could override his 2018/2019 options worth 26M and just call it a 7 x 23M = 161M to lower the AAV in future years.

Bogaerts - FA after 2019
- I would not offer any extension this offseason since his career is still in the "what exactly is he?" stage. If Bogaerts remains close to what he was in 2017, then he might not be worth the considerable contract extension that Boras would likely demand. However, if he breaks out or at least returns at his 2016 level, he could be worth an extension next offseason. His position would be the most important factor because it's not easy to acquire good hitting and competent defensive shortstops. The Sox also don't really have anyone in the pipeline to replace him.

Betts - FA after 2020
- Betts would definitely be one of the priority extension candidates, but this could still wait til next offseason. Entering his age 25 season, Mookie seems like one of the rare players that would be worth signing to an 8-year extension. He is very athletic/fast, healthy, and a very good all-around player. It's pretty likely that he will remain at least a good player throughout the duration of the contract and he seems to be very focused on his long-term career. Even if he ended up regressing towards the end of the contract (age 30-32), he would profile well as a 4th OF type due to his defense/baserunning.

- Even if the Sox were comfortable going to 8 years, Betts may actually prefer only 6 or 7 so that he can hit FA at age 30-31. An AAV of 20M seems reasonable, especially since it would buy the Sox 3+ extra years on top of his 3 years of service time. There haven't been any comparable extensions across the league since Trout/Freeman signed back in 2014 and Posey signed back in 2013. Trout is the only ever pre-arb player to get an extension of > 20M AAV. The Sox reportedly offered 5 x 20M last year, but he declined. Thus, the biggest unknown is whether or not he declined because he wanted 6-8 years or if he wanted >20M. I'd certainly be willing to go to 7 x 20M = 140M.

Bradley - FA after 2020
- I would not offer any extension this offseason since his career is still in the "what exactly is he?" stage. If JBJ remains close to what he was in 2017, then he might not be worth the considerable contract extension that Boras would likely demand. However, if he breaks out or at least returns at his 2016 level, he could be worth an extension next offseason. However, I would consider this very unlikely due to his position. OFs like Betts and Benintendi can easily move around, so its not like the Sox will specifically need a CF if JBJ were to leave as a FA.

Rodriguez - FA after 2021
- I would not offer any extension this offseason since his career is still in the "what exactly is he?" stage. He seems like he will probably settle in as a middle of the rotation starter, but he could become a #2 type. Or he could continue to stall due to injury flare-ups. E-Rod would be a decent guy to monitor for next offseason in case he has a break-out season.

Benintendi - FA after 2022
- I would consider an extension this offseason. Benny has only played 1 full season in the big leagues, but has set himself a pretty high floor with a 20/20 season. With his athleticism, speed, and sweet swing, he seems to be the type of player that could be consistently good for years to come. If he puts up another solid season in 2018, I would consider an extension offer. The point of the offer would be to tack on an extra 1-2 years to his remaining 4 years of service time, while hopefully reducing the AAV in the long-run (especially if he later breaks out and becomes an all-star caliber player). Certainly worth monitoring.

- If the Sox wanted to approach Benintendi now, Adam Eaton's extension after 1 full season could be a reasonable framework. The purpose would be to guarantee the player money now, while gaining an extra year of service time and avoiding a potential big increase during arbitration if he becomes a star. Maybe something along the lines of 6 x 6.5M = 39M, which would actually be almost identical to Pedroia's first extension.

Thanks for a crisp, easy to follow analysis.

On Betts into his thirties... a quick look at post PED seasons 2008 to present using BR batting season finder shows all players in their thirties achieved OPS+ >=100 less than 20% of the time using any number of PA.

Restricting search to qualifying PA ( the subset of all age 30+ who are skilled and healthy enough to play a lot) increases OPS+ >=100 rate to greater than 67%

Extend Mookie!

 

[MikeM]

Is he going to be much better than anyone in their current outfield? He hasn't been anywhere near the MVP caliber player he was a few years ago. That one doesn't make sense to me.

I see McCutchen as potentially being a big lineup and balance upgrade over JBJ.

I also think it makes a lot of sense in terms of an approach that insists on leaning more towards a GFIN play in 2018, while not being so shortsighted that we ignore the new CBA warning signs beyond that and which has the other big market teams scrambling away from the possibilities of being stuck operating under the constant strain of a bloated payroll. Which is basically where we are already at atm, and only digs that stance in deeper going forward with a signing like JDM. So instead you are left taking your semi-shot now, hope for some favorable outcomes this year, and then looking to get back under the LT next winter. With the expectation that you'll be having to trim some payroll and start banking on more creative/upside type roster fill solutions starting next winter.

Trading JBJ in the immediate aftermath, or even as part of the deal that nets you McCutchen I guess, just starts the more gradually aimed turn over process a year early. As opposed to an all or nothing go at the situation, of course.