The offseason heading into 2018

StuckOnYouk

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E-Rod has knee issues - do we know if his surgery is supposed to permanently fix his issue? When he's healthy he's proven to be very good.....
 

timduhda1

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You can say that again. I look forward to the moves and discussions during the hot stove, but given the lack of moves and the -5 degree weather, this is becoming depressing.
 

Hawk68

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Well yes, over the course of his career, Cabrera is one of the greatest RH hitters in the history of the sport. That's not the question. The question is what kind of hitter is he NOW and what kind of hitter will he be over the rest of his contract. I daresay it would be incredibly optimistic to think he will be nearly as good moving forward as he has been in the past.
Miggy's future value is the $184M question. I took a quick look as follows: Miggy Marcels projected bWAR = 2.94 age 35 season. Decrement that value by 0.5 WAR/year as assumed aging and this total expected bWAR age 35 through 40 is 10.1 - not a great player and in fact less than a starter as soon as three years into the remaining six years.

Data below, apologies for not knowing how to post excel table.

Age 35 36 37 38 39 40
bWAR 2.94 2.44 1.94 1.44 0.94 0.44
 

grimshaw

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Miggy's future value is the $184M question. I took a quick look as follows: Miggy Marcels projected bWAR = 2.94 age 35 season. Decrement that value by 0.5 WAR/year as assumed aging and this total expected bWAR age 35 through 40 is 10.1 - not a great player and in fact less than a starter as soon as three years into the remaining six years.
I did the exact same thing today. I think the Tigers would have to eat a lot to make it worth it, though even then the Sox would have a bad and untradeable 1st base/DH for a few of those years.

If he bounced back to a 4 win guy which is very possible, and declined at the above rate, he would earn 16 WAR which puts it closer to breaking even. Seems too risky to me and hurts a rebuild effort.

I'm not sure how much the Tigers would eat, but I would guess half of it would be asking a lot.
 
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Sampo Gida

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So what do folks think is a fair offer for Machado? I hope it's not the X/ERod/Chavis offer I've heard floated (Cafardo?). That seems like a vast overpay for one year of Manny.

Assuming we're offering X (to avoid the complication of flipping him elsewhere), and understanding that the O's want pitching,, I think X + ERod is still too much for one year. X + Brian Johnson? And maybe add an expendable middle reliever, or a mid-level prospect (Sharwyn, who pitched for Maryland)?

Or maybe we have to make it a three-way deal - if Duquette wants two young SPs, maybe we can pick them up in a deal for X, and flip them to the Os.
I'd try to make Pomeranz, X, Groome, Swihart work. This lets them compete in 2018, gives them an extra year of control in X, and a couple of prospects , even if the shine is off Swiharts bloom
 

Sampo Gida

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I can't really speak to that, I'm just passing on what my friend said. I could be that they don't have to negotiate against amateur players for MLB money; he also mentioned Perfect Game by name as someone charging an awful lot (and controlling the pipeline, maybe the PU thinks that should be under their aegis?)



Again, I can't say for certain and I don't want to misrepresent my discussion as a Union position. I think the PU got taken in the last negotiation, and lay the blame at Clark's feet, but ultimately their membership ratified the deal (my friend mentioned that it sounded like the PU was really worried about a work stoppage, but that seems really unlikely to me). The PU would seem to be juggling several different interests, from different player factions to maintaining competitive balance, but I really can't figure out how they let spending get tamped down on bring in new talent (IFA, drafted players) without also then directing the remaining money towards veterans by easing the CBT. That seemed like a no-brainer, so the issue is figuring out why it happened...
MLBPA outside council for the last 20 yrs (DOJ head for Obama, cant recall her name) is a big believer that work stoppages are not an option when economic stakes are high for both sides (co-wrote a paper to that affect). While she may be right, you got to at least show that hand since it really is a unions main leverage. Got to bluff to win at poker. Mutually Assured Destruction has been known to work, but only if you show the capability and willingness to push the button when forced up against the wall. If you announce you have unilaterally disarmed you likely go up in smoke. That smell is the MLBPA burning.

Another theory as to how its happened is the union is coopted in some way. Perhaps players feel they can be blackballed speaking out for taking a hard line if they fear there is a pipeline to MLB from within. Perhaps they worry about being set up with PED suspensions. Maybe they are just so content already, even if their share of revenue could be better. If the latter case then this years bloodbath, if it continues this way , may cause a radical backlash against this passive approach. Give an inch and a good organization will take a mile. MLB has some pretty smart Negotiators working for them and MLBPA has given them at least a foot
 

chawson

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Miggy's future value is the $184M question. I took a quick look as follows: Miggy Marcels projected bWAR = 2.94 age 35 season. Decrement that value by 0.5 WAR/year as assumed aging and this total expected bWAR age 35 through 40 is 10.1 - not a great player and in fact less than a starter as soon as three years into the remaining six years.

Data below, apologies for not knowing how to post excel table.

Age 35 36 37 38 39 40
bWAR 2.94 2.44 1.94 1.44 0.94 0.44
Even if he follows this fairly conservative track, that’s “worth” $80MM in free agency. So yeah, if the Tigers add $100m in cash and/or player assets and take back Hanley, then Miggy would “cost” us roughly 6/$70M as a full-time DH.

That may be preferable to DD than JDM at 6/$150M. And in this hypothetical, we’d have another young cost-controlled player for our trouble.
 

sean1562

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Yes if the tigers pay his whole contract he is a bargain. Why would they do that, if his numbers are as encouraging as so many people are saying?
 

PapaSox

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To take grimshaw's numbers:
Age 35 36 37 38 39 40
bWAR 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 = 16.5 let's round it to 16 .. drop by 0.5 each season
WarValue 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 ... increase by .500/year ... assuming one WAR is worth $8.0
WarAmt 32.0 29.75 27.0 23.75 20.0 10.5 = $142.5
 

MikeM

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Wouldn't be surprised to hear latter that DD was indeed exploring various 3rd party ways he might be able to spin Xander into Machado.

I'm more convinced by the day that any additional move DD may make this winter is going to have to come in the form of a rental. With the surrounding hope/desire to get back under the LT asap outweighing everything else going into that decision.
 

chawson

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Yes if the tigers pay his whole contract he is a bargain. Why would they do that, if his numbers are as encouraging as so many people are saying?
I’m not Al Avila, but I see two good reasons.

First, Cabrera’s injuries last year showed he needs to stop playing the field. But the Tigers already have Victor Martinez making $18M at DH next year. Playing Miggy at first again could worsen his injuries. If he has another season like 2017, the Tigers would lose the opportunity to shed any of his contract whatsoever. So they might be incentivized to move him now.

Second, they need to fully commit to tanking/rebuilding. They’re an awful team with no shot next year, so decent seasons from Cabrera and Victor have no function but to propel them toward a near-.500 season. This gives them a worse draft pick with so many other rebuilding teams (TB, ATL, CWS, KC, BAL, SD, CIN, NYM, etc.) and it hurts their long-term future.

Third, there may be sort of intangible “baseball reasons” that Avila would want to get a HoF player to a meaningful spot for his last years. This is totally speculative, but a player of Miggy’s magnitude might even quietly request that or help facilitate it, especially if he’s got good history with DD.
 
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Devizier

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He had a ruptured disc in his back. If he's healed.
Notably, he did not get surgery for that. Obviously that's up to the orthopedic surgeon's discretion and often these injuries "get better" (i.e. stop hurting) on their own. If I recall correctly, Randy Johnson struggled with herniated discs throughout his career.
 

keninten

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I`ll start out by saying don`t want JDM for over 5/100. Which won`t get him. I`d rather just sign Carlos Gonzalez and Tony Watson then call it the off season. Get Brentz and Cargo some time at 1st in ST. See if Swihart can become the super utility guy. He might turn into a pretty good trade chip if he can move around the field and still catch a little.
 

PapaSox

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Notably, he did not get surgery for that. Obviously that's up to the orthopedic surgeon's discretion and often these injuries "get better" (i.e. stop hurting) on their own. If I recall correctly, Randy Johnson struggled with herniated discs throughout his career.
This can be a good thing as surgery is not always the best solution. The injuries really don't stop hurting on there own. Weight loss, conditioning and PT with knowledge trainer stop it from hurting. Chiropractic care can also help. It is a livable injury and Miggy can return from it. However, it is always looming in the background. If he does not keep up with the conditioning, PT and weight loss it can come back in a serious way. In my case a simple cough from a cold put we out for 3 months.
 

grimshaw

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I`ll start out by saying don`t want JDM for over 5/100. Which won`t get him. I`d rather just sign Carlos Gonzalez and Tony Watson then call it the off season. Get Brentz and Cargo some time at 1st in ST. See if Swihart can become the super utility guy. He might turn into a pretty good trade chip if he can move around the field and still catch a little.
Cargo's overall and road w/RC+ the past three seasons - more relevant because of the Coors factor.
2015 116/102
2016 110/94
2017 84/57

I know in general players perform worse on the road, but his increasingly fesh numbers don't look promising. His overall power is to right and center too. They already have two below average 1b/DH types. I don't see the need for another.
 
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If the Sox give up Chavis and Groome for one year of Machado the I will be firmly on the tough rebuild train come 2020. That would be such a short sighted move, it would be utterly breathtaking.
I will backtrack a bit. If the Sox sign Machado to a long term deal then I can see it making sense. Would he take ten years 350 million?
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Agree that Groome + Chavis far too high a price for one year of Machado. And I would not want to be selling low on Groome (especially with the encouraging reports about him working with Sale).

If we were to give them Chavis, then what should the other piece(s) be? They might want ERod, but again this would be selling low with him coming off injury. And probably still too much for one year of Manny. Mata? Sharwyn? Houck? Beeks? Johnson? I'd probably add any of those, and maybe one other lower-level throw-in ( or a Hembree or Barnes).

And I assume that this would mean that we would move Devers to 1B/DH for at least the next year. I'd just as soon keep both he and X.

I still view this as highly unlikely. But there seems to be a good bit of smoke here - maybe just a smokescreen for JDM, but with dealin" Dave you never know.
 

sean1562

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Would machado immediately preclude Martinez? I woukd think no? Devers at 1b, machado at 3b, then go all in on signing him? Might prefer that to signing JD

What is chavis’ ceiling? Is a young Dan uggla that valuable for this team?
 

BornToRun

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Wasn't there an idea floated here about centering a deal around E-Rod and Xander for Machado? Would that do it and am I insane for thinking I'd be okay with it? My only real hang up there would be if Machado isn't amenable to re-upping with the Red Sox which seems quite possible if not likely.
 

OCD SS

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That would be highway robbery for Baltimore.
Names exchanged don’t mean they’re all in a final deal. The O’s are probably drawing limited interest for 1 year of Manny, certainly at their asking price, but since I’d like to see him sign signed long term, I think getting him a full year in Boston as the starting SS might make him more comfortable signing here (or least save the team from a long term mistake if it won’t work out). Since Chavis has limited utility to the Sox now (and I’m not high on him), I’d be willing to use him to headline a Machado deal; then trade Xander for prospects (maybe some have to also go to B’Mor) to team looking for cost control at SS to compete for two years.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Machado instead of JDM is something I can definitely get behind. Using Chavis or Groome as the centerpiece wild require a negotiating window, IMO. But I'd go 10/350 to get that done.

FWIW no one hit the ball more than 95 mph more times than Machado last year and he had the 17th highest average exit velocity. 3 spots higher than JD.

I'd be happy to bet on a return to form in 2018.
 

chawson

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If a deal happens without a negotiating window and some winkwink assurance Machado would consider signing here, it’s absurd. I’m not super high on Groome and Chavis—compared to giving up Rizzo and Kelly for AGonz, that’s a steal if we can sign MM long-term.

If these rumors are true, it might explain that weird Bogaerts puff piece in the Globe.
 

Sampo Gida

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I see the Red Sox window closing in the next 1-2 years with possible departures of Sale, Kimbrell, Price, XB, Pomeranz and an aging Pedroia. By 2020 JBJ and Betts will be in their walk year barring an extension. The farm system isnt going to offer much relief in this period

So I overpay for 1yr of Machado for 2018. Mannys bat is a massive upgrade over XB and might save them the need to take on a 9 figure deal for a DH. Hope he extends but dont count on it. Whats it going to take? Pomeranz, Groome, Bentz, B Johnson would be my choice but maybe it takes E-Rod, Groome and XB.

Perhaps a larger deal which includes an exchange of bad contracts and cash could be considered
 

keninten

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Cargo's overall and road w/RC+ the past three seasons - more relevant because of the Coors factor.
2015 116/102
2016 110/94
2017 84/57

I know in general players perform worse on the road, but his increasingly fesh numbers don't look promising. His overall power is to right and center too. They already have two below average 1b/DH types. I don't see the need for another.
August he started hitting better and September looked closer to his old self. He`s mainly an OFer. I mentioned 1st just because I`d like to see more bench players being able to play multiple positions. His spray chart for Fenway looks pretty good. Not sure if I can post it. Have no idea what he would cost but for 1 year pillow contract could be a steal.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/player?player_id=&pos=&player_type=batter&season=2017&tab=spray_chart_tab#
 

tonyarmasjr

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I know we're all a little disappointed with Xander, since we expected him to be the second coming of Alex Rodriguez. But some perspective...

Ranking among SS in fWAR / wRC+ (min. 400 PA, 800 PA over the 3 years)
2015: 3 / 5
2016: 6 / 8
2017: 9 / 14
2015-2017: 4 / 8

He's one of the best players in MLB at his position, which is at the top of the defensive spectrum. His 12.4 fWAR over the last 3 years is 27th in all of baseball. 2017 was disappointing, and can hopefully be largely attributed to inury. But it also still saw him as an above average SS. A bounce back year, which I think most expect, places him squarely as a 4-5 win, All-Star caliber SS . He's also still only 25 years old - 5th youngest of the top 15 on that list (and 2 months younger than Machado fwiw). And he's cost-controlled, making $4.5M next year. Xander's not better than Manny Machado, but trading him for one year of anybody seems awfully silly to me. He's the type of player teams unload their top prospects for, not a guy you pair with a top prospect or cost-controlled starting pitcher for a rental.
 

bosockboy

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Machado instead of JDM is something I can definitely get behind. Using Chavis or Groome as the centerpiece wild require a negotiating window, IMO. But I'd go 10/350 to get that done.

FWIW no one hit the ball more than 95 mph more times than Machado last year and he had the 17th highest average exit velocity. 3 spots higher than JD.

I'd be happy to bet on a return to form in 2018.
In a hypothetical 10/350 Machado extension, would that preclude the extensions of Sale and Betts?
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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In a hypothetical 10/350 Machado extension, would that preclude the extensions of Sale and Betts?
No more so than signing JD.

Edit: And to be less glib, Machado would instantly be the best non-pitcher on the team (and maybe the best overall player). You get him locked up first and sort out the rest later.

Plus, I don't think Sale is likely to stay anyway, and since he's locked up, more or less, through his prime, I'm not sure a long term 30+ million AAV contact for him would be the best idea.

Mookie would still be affordable given the expiring contacts of Hanley, Panda, Kimbrel, and not needing to extend Bogaerts anymore.
 
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bosockboy

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No more so than signing JD.

Edit: And to be less glib, Machado would instantly be the best non-pitcher on the team (and maybe the best overall player). You get him locked up first and sort out the rest later.

Plus, I don't think Sale is likely to stay anyway, and since he's loved up, more or less, through his prime, I'm not sure a long term 30+ million AAV contact for him would be the best idea.

Mookie would still be affordable given the expiring contacts of Hanley, Panda, Kimbrel, and not needing to extend Bogaerts anymore.
Rephrased—can they hold three 300 million dollar contracts on the same roster?
 

Laser Show

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Rephrased—can they hold three 300 million dollar contracts on the same roster?
This could be a big issue. if they're not resigning Sale and using the payroll flexibility on Mookie and Machado, then who's pitching?

Pomeranz, Sale, Porcello and maybe Price may all be gone within a couple years. The farm system is barren. Especially if Groome goes.

This team needs to start developing pitching again. Felix Doubront should not be the only somewhat successful starter to come out of the farm in the past decade. No I don't count EdRo.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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This could be a big issue. if they're not resigning Sale and using the payroll flexibility on Mookie and Machado, then who's pitching?

Pomeranz, Sale, Porcello and maybe Price may all be gone within a couple years. The farm system is barren. Especially if Groome goes.

This team needs to start developing pitching again. Felix Doubront should not be the only somewhat successful starter to come out of the farm in the past decade. No I don't count EdRo.
The real question is where is the ace? If Price opts out you can buy one. Otherwise you're more likely hoping he's a #2 and Edro is healthy. They have a bunch of middle to back of the rotation types in the pipeline.

Of course, Houston had no ace at the deadline this past July, so that is sometimes addressable in season.
 

bosockboy

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The real question is where is the ace? If Price opts out you can buy one. Otherwise you're more likely hoping he's a #2 and Edro is healthy. They have a bunch of middle to back of the rotation types in the pipeline.

Of course, Houston had no ace at the deadline this past July, so that is sometimes addressable in season.
Off topic probably, but I think Keuchel qualifies.
 

Laser Show

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The real question is where is the ace? If Price opts out you can buy one. Otherwise you're more likely hoping he's a #2 and Edro is healthy. They have a bunch of middle to back of the rotation types in the pipeline.

Of course, Houston had no ace at the deadline this past July, so that is sometimes addressable in season.
I really think they're gonna have to develop one. Or develop something. They don't have the resources otherwise.
 

MikeM

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If Chavis and Groom was enough to put Machado in a Sox uniform DD would have already pulled the trigger.

Baltimore isn't making that deal. Which then enters a need to get the potential return on Xander squared away upfront for that possibility to go anywhere.
 

MikeM

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In a hypothetical 10/350 Machado extension, would that preclude the extensions of Sale and Betts?
Hypothetically speaking, the Sox would have to be pretty bat crazy to blindly hand $350m over right now to a guy who just OPS'd .782 on the season (.826 in that "huge" second half rebound), and might not even bring one elite skillset to the table after a move to full time SS.

I mean I get that people tend to totally obsess on the dream big possibilities that goes into the age factor, hence the Day 1 Dumb contract Heyward got, but color me very skeptical Machado actually ends up being worth that heavy of an investment in relationship to our upcoming retool effort.
 

Puffy

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For all this talk of $300 million dollar contracts, there has only been one such contract in MLB history, and it was spread over a 13-year time period. There have only been 12 contracts over $200 million and other than Stanton and ARod's 2 contracts, none have been higher than $250 million. And a good portion of those quickly became albatrosses.

I have no doubt that the market continues to change and evolve and that there are some big name players on the horizon in free agency or for extensions, but I guess I'll believe it when I see it in 2018/19. And I'm not sure I'd want to be the team holding any of these hypothetical decade-long contracts that devote 20% of the payroll to 1 player.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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If Chavis and Groom was enough to put Machado in a Sox uniform DD would have already pulled the trigger.

Baltimore isn't making that deal. Which then enters a need to get the potential return on Xander squared away upfront for that possibility to go anywhere.
Correct. The price would probably be more than both of them. Especially to deal in the division. I know hes leaving Baltimore at the end of the season but still seems like that’s a bargain for the Sox. If they do this deal I would actually bet that Xander doesn’t get moved. It’s a nice counter to Stanton. But they need to have some type of assurance that he would resign.
 

grimshaw

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For all this talk of $300 million dollar contracts, there has only been one such contract in MLB history, and it was spread over a 13-year time period. There have only been 12 contracts over $200 million and other than Stanton and ARod's 2 contracts, none have been higher than $250 million. And a good portion of those quickly became albatrosses.

I have no doubt that the market continues to change and evolve and that there are some big name players on the horizon in free agency or for extensions, but I guess I'll believe it when I see it in 2018/19. And I'm not sure I'd want to be the team holding any of these hypothetical decade-long contracts that devote 20% of the payroll to 1 player.
If you adjust for 3% inflation, which is a light estimate then the biggest contracts are closer to 300,000,000. A-Rod's would easily eclipse any hypothetical Harper and Machado deal in history since he made 252,000,000 16 years ago.

Harper and Machado while no A-rod will also be 26 when their contracts start. A-Rod was 28, Cano and Votto 30, Pujols, 32 and Cabrera 33. Kershaw was 24 but has an opt out and should destroy his previous deal if healthy.

If teams back off, say 3 years from Stanton's which isn't yet underwater they will not back off on the AAV - he is inferior to those two players.

There is no chance they earn less than 300 million.

And, more relevant to this thread, I can't see any reason at all why Machado wouldn't test the market. It is very likely he won't be thrilled about a trade to Boston so why commit unless DD massively overpays.
 

moondog80

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Dream scenario: trade for Machado and JD’s market never develops so he takes and Encarnacion-like three year deal, meaning his deal is done before Betts hits free agency.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
And, more relevant to this thread, I can't see any reason at all why Machado wouldn't test the market. It is very likely he won't be thrilled about a trade to Boston so why commit unless DD massively overpays.
This is especially true if Bogaerts isn't part of the trade package--Machado isn't going to want to play third here when he's almost certainly a better defensive shortstop than the incumbent. If Bogaerts isn't here and the Sox can promise Machado the SS job, that might improve our chances slightly, I would think. But you're probably still right, which is why a straight-up Bogaerts-for-Machado deal seems like an overpay on our part, if anything (i.e., two years of Bogaerts is worth more than one year of Machado; Machado provides more surplus value, but probably not twice as much). Certainly adding Eduardo would make it a clear overpay.

Dream scenario: trade for Machado and JD’s market never develops so he takes and Encarnacion-like three year deal, meaning his deal is done before Betts hits free agency.
Encarnacion took a three-year deal because he was 34 years old. Martinez is 30--If he takes a pillow contract it'll be for one year, not three.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I just don't see the Machado deal happening. It makes no sense to expend significant prospect resources (not to mention doing roster gymnastics to move Bogaerts or Devers to make room) for a one-year rental, especially if there is likely also an intra-division tax just to get into the conversation.

And if the Orioles (and Machado) are willing to entertain a window to negotiate an extension, then the potential trade partners will increase to include just about anyone who is eying Machado as a free agent signing for next winter. More suitors means the price goes up, probably to a place where the Red Sox can't compete.

Given the actions of Dombrowski so far, I'm becoming more and more convinced that his approach this winter, absent a JD Martinez type bat falling into his lap (by which I mean, coming much cheaper than anticipated), he's taking the "tinker around the edges" tack with a roster that won 93 games last year despite down years from much of the lineup. Such an approach I think precludes the huge remake of the roster required to make a Machado trade possible/worthwhile.
 

johnnywayback

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2018 is the best possible opportunity for this team to win a World Series for at least the next half-decade and possibly longer. And while Chavis and Groome are easily the best prospects in the system, neither projects to be a likely game-changer. So I would be fine cashing them in to win in 2018 -- they are not going to be the difference between the 2021 Red Sox being good or not being good.

That said, Machado seems like an odd fit. You're certainly not going to play him at 3B, not with Devers slated to play an important role for the next 5+ years and Machado wanting to play SS. So he only makes sense if you assume that you're not going to re-sign Bogaerts long-term anyway -- best-case scenario, you re-sign Machado; worst-case, you're in the SS market a couple years earlier than you'd planned. Okay. But then you have to have a plan for a Bogaerts trade that either makes you better now or extends the window, and it's hard to imagine that coming together right now.

The logic of 1) signing JD Martinez, 2) being prepared to trade Chavis and/or Groome for an impact rental if needed in July, 3) looking for high-upside relief arms who could help replace Kimbrel, and 4) trying to figure out which of Bogaerts/Bradley won't be here long-term and making a trade after the season to try to extend the window still seems pretty obvious to me.
 

MikeM

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2018 is the best possible opportunity for this team to win a World Series for at least the next half-decade and possibly longer. And while Chavis and Groome are easily the best prospects in the system, neither projects to be a likely game-changer. So I would be fine cashing them in to win in 2018 -- they are not going to be the difference between the 2021 Red Sox being good or not being good.

That said, Machado seems like an odd fit. You're certainly not going to play him at 3B, not with Devers slated to play an important role for the next 5+ years and Machado wanting to play SS. So he only makes sense if you assume that you're not going to re-sign Bogaerts long-term anyway -- best-case scenario, you re-sign Machado; worst-case, you're in the SS market a couple years earlier than you'd planned. Okay. But then you have to have a plan for a Bogaerts trade that either makes you better now or extends the window, and it's hard to imagine that coming together right now.

The logic of 1) signing JD Martinez, 2) being prepared to trade Chavis and/or Groome for an impact rental if needed in July, 3) looking for high-upside relief arms who could help replace Kimbrel, and 4) trying to figure out which of Bogaerts/Bradley won't be here long-term and making a trade after the season to try to extend the window still seems pretty obvious to me.
Swapping Xander out for Machado actually only puts us in the market for a SS one year early. Assuming DD isn't operating under some Chris Sale countdown clock, it would also play towards an end that sees the Sox ideally wanting to get back under the LT a year from now. Even if it ultimately meant you were going to be left easing up on the gas pedal after this season as we transition into a multi year re-tool period (and not a full rebuild type scenario).

Which obviously isn't the ideal textbook way everybody would want to see it played out, but it's not like we haven't tried to remain competitive with less before.