The offseason heading into 2018

shaggydog2000

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I suppose. I thought his bulk wasn't a great help to a baseball swing. He looks more like a supple leopard for sure though. If you get the reference.
Sure, but he was looking pretty ripped dancing behind whoever that was getting interviewed (Mookie? JBJ?) in his workout shirt last year. I don't think it was "bulk" that hurt him if so many other guys that size/shape have hit baseballs well. You don't want an olympic weightlifter that looks like a marathoner, and you don't want a swimmer who looks like a sumo wrestler. You need to be in shape for what you expect to do, and he looked just right to be a slugging LF/1B/DH type. But he can be in whatever shape he wants if he hits.
 

Reverend

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If he picked up the way of the avocado ice cream, he might have gotten interested from the perspective of injury prevention and stuff, which he has obviously had problems with. If so, he could have made other changes that could prove beneficial.

Though it would seem he could still have to adjust to a potential reduction in power.
 

chawson

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Cross Watson off the list; he's going to the Giants. Kind of disappointing.
It is. Odd that the only free agents Dombrowski’s been whispered to be in on (besides Moreland, Nunez, and JDM) have been Minor and Watson. And Lincecum I guess.

With Watson to SF, Logan to MIL, and Abad to PHI, there’s none left.

Might be worth seeing if Zac Rosscup’s a better loogy than Robby Scott if we can get him on a minor league deal, but beyond him, Oliver Perez and Francisco Liriano, lefties are gone.
 
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Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Cross Watson off the list; he's going to the Giants. Kind of disappointing.
Maybe, although looking at his trendlines, I think we may have dodged a bullet there, especially if it's for multiple years. His K rate has been trending down, BB rate, SIERA and xFIP up, and his HR/FB has spiked the past two years. Not encouraging trends for a 33-year-old. The fact that he had a good World Series may have inflated his perceived value a bit; he could be the Pablo Sandoval of this offseason.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Might be worth seeing if Zac Rosscup’s a better loogy that Robby Scott if we can get him on a minor league deal, but beyond him, Oliver Perez and Francisco Liriano, lefties are gone.
Scott's actually been a decent LOOGY -- career .522 OPS to LHH. It's righties that have given him a problem.

I also wonder if the Sox might be grooming Jerez for this role -- he totally shut down LHH last year in AA/AAA (.485 OPS allowed, 0 HR to 88 hitters).

BTW, I'm not seeing Rosscup as a FA anywhere. All indications on the web are that he is controlled by the Rockies for 2018. Is there breaking news that they've DFA'd him or something?
 

chawson

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Scott's actually been a decent LOOGY -- career .522 OPS to LHH. It's righties that have given him a problem.

I also wonder if the Sox might be grooming Jerez for this role -- he totally shut down LHH last year in AA/AAA (.485 OPS allowed, 0 HR to 88 hitters).

BTW, I'm not seeing Rosscup as a FA anywhere. All indications on the web are that he is controlled by the Rockies for 2018. Is there breaking news that they've DFA'd him or something?
Ah, weird. Yeah, Rosscup’s listed on Fangraphs’ free agent tracker but it looks like that’s an anomaly.

Good call on Jerez, I thought he completely stalled out. Would be nice to get a non-LOOGY lefty but those seem to be in short supply.
 

simplicio

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Yeah, Watson definitely has question marks attached, but Scott's peripherals are downright scary. I hope Jerez can step up if Robby regresses.
 

E5 Yaz

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Cora said on NESN today or last night that this was a good thing and that Hanley was looking like Ray Lewis. I had to go back, and put closed captions on, to make sure that’s what Cora said. Ray Lewis!?
He meant he was in killer condition
 

nvalvo

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If Tim Lincecum is actually throwing in the low 90s, I'd be interested to get him into camp to see if he could be a weapon as a reliever. An okay fastball combined with his elite changeup (if he still has it) could be a Uehara-like combo, especially against lefties. Lincecum has generally had a mild reverse split.

I'd only be interested on a pretty cheap deal with incentives and a team option to capture some upside. If the showcase went as well as rumored, he may get better opportunities.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Ugh, just no on Lincecum.

He was a great pitcher at his peak, and his CY seasons ensure continued name recognition.

If they can ink him to a minor league deal, then great...give a chance to be Aaron Cook II. But I’d rather the team keeps an eye out on the DFA wire for minor-league pitchers who have potential to be good, yet are 40-man roster casualties.
 

Lars The Wanderer

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Maybe, although looking at his trendlines, I think we may have dodged a bullet there, especially if it's for multiple years. His K rate has been trending down, BB rate, SIERA and xFIP up, and his HR/FB has spiked the past two years. Not encouraging trends for a 33-year-old. The fact that he had a good World Series may have inflated his perceived value a bit; he could be the Pablo Sandoval of this offseason.
The deal ended up being 3 years for $7 million. That really isn't much of a bullet. This market is crazy.
 

grimshaw

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The deal ended up being 3 years for $7 million. That really isn't much of a bullet. This market is crazy.
I don't know - high K/high leverage relievers are getting paid. He isn't either of those.
And he isn't elite at getting ground balls or getting out lefties anymore either.

I'm not even sure if he's all that much better than Abad at this point and the latter signed a minor league deal. Good non-signing IMO.

In fact -
2016-17
Abad - 3.49 ERA, 7.8 k/9 45% ground ball percentage. Abad has also been better against lefties (and righties last year too). 8 home runs allowed.

Watson - 3.22 ERA 7.4 k/9, 46% ground ball percentage. 19 (!) home runs allowed.
 
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simplicio

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Watson got used extensively in high leverage situations though. Abad wasn't trusted with those.
 

jon abbey

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Watson is getting paid much more than that, it is just structured strangely to try to keep SF under the luxury tax line, via Jerry Crasnick on Twitter:

“Tony Watson’s deal with the #SFGiants comes with a guarantee of $9 million, source says. It includes escalators and performance bonuses that could ultimately increase the value to $14M over 2 years or $21M over 3 years.”
 

chawson

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Honestly Abad himself was perfectly fine. Had a rough first two weeks with the team but posted an ERA- of 69 from 8/18/16 through the end of last year. FWIW, that’s better than the 2017 ERA- of Watson, Jake McGee, Justin Wilson, Emilio Pagan, and Aroldis Chapman.

Abad got Melancon’d.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Watson is getting paid much more than that, it is just structured strangely to try to keep SF under the luxury tax line, via Jerry Crasnick on Twitter:

“Tony Watson’s deal with the #SFGiants comes with a guarantee of $9 million, source says. It includes escalators and performance bonuses that could ultimately increase the value to $14M over 2 years or $21M over 3 years.”
Isn't it just paid retroactively if he hits those and it pushes them over?