The off-season

turnthe2

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Jan 13, 2007
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There are some assumptions in a few posts that puzzle me. One is that Moncada will learn how to hit breaking balls. (Wasn't that an expectation with Castillo?). The other is that pitchers have found the way to get Leon out and that he will not be able to adjust. (In my opinion, Leon was exhausted by the end of the year. I think he may be able to adjust, and his work throwing guys out has a lot of value.) Also, I know that late-season Travis Shaw was a hyuuuuge disappointment, but some of the posts underrate his value to the team after the Panda incapacity. Another suggestion I disagree with is trading BROCKHOLT. I think Farrell loves him, and unless they get something very shiny, he will stay with the Sox.
p.s. Is there no interest in making up for the loss of a left-handed power hitter? Encarnacion is good, but he doesn't replace Ortiz, for that reason.
If lefty power is what they are looking for, probably the closest in oWAR would be Cano. There are a lot of obstacles to acquiring him. One being a NTC. He may not wave it if he wants to play defense which his defense when compared to the incumbent second baseman isn't as good. Then there is the matter of his $24 million/yr owed through age 40 (2023 season) and the acquisition cost. Never mind how interested Seattle would be in moving him.

I'm not supporting this idea, simply bringing it to the table for discussion for the greater minds of SoSH.
 

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If lefty power is what they are looking for, probably the closest in oWAR would be Cano. There are a lot of obstacles to acquiring him. One being a NTC. He may not wave it if he wants to play defense which his defense when compared to the incumbent second baseman isn't as good. Then there is the matter of his $24 million/yr owed through age 40 (2023 season) and the acquisition cost. Never mind how interested Seattle would be in moving him.

I'm not supporting this idea, simply bringing it to the table for discussion for the greater minds of SoSH.
Seattle has plenty of money and is on the cusp of being a pretty good team. I see no reason why they'd trade Cano.
 

dhappy42

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Oct 27, 2013
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Why do people want to try to trade Kimbrel in a flooded closer market?

That makes no sense. Lets get .80 on the dollar for a closer then spend way more for a lesser talent?
Agreed, but WTF is it with the Red Sox and hired-gun closers? Melancon, Bailey, etc.? Koji doesn't count because he wasn't hired to close.

Kimbrel was a wild ride this year, blew a bunch of games, and was wild, but his K/9 is still good. Maybe he settles down next year.
 

O Captain! My Captain!

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There are some assumptions in a few posts that puzzle me. One is that Moncada will learn how to hit breaking balls. (Wasn't that an expectation with Castillo?).
Moncada is much younger than Castillo and hadn't seen pitching above half a season in AA before being called up. His prospect pedigree has always been based more on tools than on production (though his production has also been excellent). Meanwhile, Castillo was supposed to be a much more finished product based both on age and experience, and has apparently failed to develop with repeated exposure to MLB and AAA pitching.

Even if Moncada maintains a relative weakness vs breaking stuff compared to what one might expect of a player with his talent, he's a legitimate 5-tool talent. He has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game currently and will likely continue to for at least the immediate future, but he's also nearly a full year younger than Benintendi and has dominated the minors once he worked off the rust from being out of baseball. There's no reason to suspect that he's less likely to learn to hit breaking pitches than any other top prospect in baseball.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Assuming they stand pat at 3b, if Dubon has a great spring training and the other guys suck out loud, I think he'd have an outside chance of being our starting 3b. I think he'd adjust rather quickly as he has decent control of the strike zone. If any of the power he showed in Portland was real and not just SSS noise, Dubon seems the type who could hold 3b down until Moncada was ready or possibly even long term, allowing you to move Moncada to the OF if JBJ were to be traded. If the power isn't, he's probably just another Brock Holt.

Lots of things would have to go right tho, and they haven't tried him at 3b yet.
 

m0ckduck

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Where do you find guys that are both willing to kinda be AAAA type guys but will also give you what you're looking for with any year to year consistency?
B-level prospects who are in the high minors - ?

My post could be alternately phrased as, 'Replenishing the pitching in the upper levels of the farm system — not necessarily with future stars— should be a priority for the off-season'
 

Cesar Crespo

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B-level prospects who are in the high minors - ?

My post could be alternately phrased as, 'Replenishing the pitching in the upper levels of the farm system — not necessarily with future stars— should be a priority for the off-season'

And where do you get these B Level prospects? A B level prospect puts you in the top 80-150 prospect range.
 

m0ckduck

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And where do you get these B Level prospects? A B level prospect puts you in the top 80-150 prospect range.
If you decide to trade Travis Shaw (not advocating this necessarily— just an example), look at dealing him for someone else's Brandon Workman (rather than for, say, a low-level guy with higher ceiling). Major league-ready guy who projects as #4 starter/reliever, low ceiling, high floor.

Come to think of it, maybe Brandon Workman will get well and be that guy anyway.
 

nvalvo

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Agree that he's probably the better hitter (and is 8 months younger), but Votto's got 7/$184 in guaranteed money left on his contract. Heyman reported this week that EE "might get" four years from someone, with estimates between $80-100m.
If Heyman's right about those terms, then we should sign EE. I don't think he is though. I'm picturing something comparable to what Chris Davis got. Call it 6/$150.

(Which might explain why I'm interested in Votto — similar deal, younger, better hitter, better fit for the roster, maybe the Reds can pick up a few $mil.)
 

Cesar Crespo

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If you decide to trade Travis Shaw (not advocating this necessarily— just an example), look at dealing him for someone else's Brandon Workman (rather than for, say, a low-level guy with higher ceiling). Major league-ready guy who projects as #4 starter/reliever, low ceiling, high floor.

Come to think of it, maybe Brandon Workman will get well and be that guy anyway.

Maybe, but Brandon Workman at his best was a C level prospect. A B level prospect is someone like Manual Margot. Workman is also bullpen only now, so he can't be that guy.
 

soxfan121

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Assuming they stand pat at 3b, if Dubon has a great spring training and the other guys suck out loud, I think he'd have an outside chance of being our starting 3b. I think he'd adjust rather quickly as he has decent control of the strike zone. If any of the power he showed in Portland was real and not just SSS noise, Dubon seems the type who could hold 3b down until Moncada was ready or possibly even long term, allowing you to move Moncada to the OF if JBJ were to be traded. If the power isn't, he's probably just another Brock Holt.

Lots of things would have to go right tho, and they haven't tried him at 3b yet.
Wait... what?

No. Seriously. What in the wide, wide world of sports is going on? You are really suggesting a 21-year old with 270 AA plate appearances - and who has played 66 1/3 professional innings at the position - has a "outside chance" to win the big league 3b job? Further, you think he would "adjust quickly" because of "decent control of the strikezone"?

I get it. It's silly season, and we all love to dream on prospects ... but this is amorrifying (that's a combination of amusing and horrifying). It doesn't make a lick of sense. Dubon is going to leapfrog Moncada and win the 3b job with a great spring training?

There is a better chance that a manned mission to Mars results in finding the lost city of Atlantis than there is of Mauricio Dubon winning the 3b job for the Boston Red Sox out of spring training in 2017.
 

RedOctober3829

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Wait... what?

No. Seriously. What in the wide, wide world of sports is going on? You are really suggesting a 21-year old with 270 AA plate appearances - and who has played 66 1/3 professional innings at the position - has a "outside chance" to win the big league 3b job? Further, you think he would "adjust quickly" because of "decent control of the strikezone"?

I get it. It's silly season, and we all love to dream on prospects ... but this is amorrifying (that's a combination of amusing and horrifying). It doesn't make a lick of sense. Dubon is going to leapfrog Moncada and win the 3b job with a great spring training?

There is a better chance that a manned mission to Mars results in finding the lost city of Atlantis than there is of Mauricio Dubon winning the 3b job for the Boston Red Sox out of spring training in 2017.
So you're saying there's a chance? What's all that 1 in a million talk?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Wait... what?

No. Seriously. What in the wide, wide world of sports is going on? You are really suggesting a 21-year old with 270 AA plate appearances - and who has played 66 1/3 professional innings at the position - has a "outside chance" to win the big league 3b job? Further, you think he would "adjust quickly" because of "decent control of the strikezone"?

I get it. It's silly season, and we all love to dream on prospects ... but this is amorrifying (that's a combination of amusing and horrifying). It doesn't make a lick of sense. Dubon is going to leapfrog Moncada and win the 3b job with a great spring training?

There is a better chance that a manned mission to Mars results in finding the lost city of Atlantis than there is of Mauricio Dubon winning the 3b job for the Boston Red Sox out of spring training in 2017.
We've seen enough prospects the last couple years to fly through the system and make it to the show with very little AA/AAA at bats or experience at a position. Plus, players of his kind (low strike out% decent bb%) do adjust quickly. It's the Xander's, JBJ's, and Moncada's that do not. Margot will adjust quickly to the bigs too. Of course, Dubon isn't the same level of prospect. He's also 22, not 21.

It's very possible Dubon's power surge in Portland was a fluke, or maybe he took a step forward as a player. I don't see how it's all that outlandish to suggest a guy who is going to start in Pawtucket and get at bats this spring could possibly make the team and start with a good spring if the other 4 guys really suck and they don't sign anyone else. It's literally an everything has to go right scenerio, which I even noted. I guess you take offense to the term "outside chance." Dubon is most likely not even Brock Holt, though. Whatever.

Dubon is going to get at bats in Boston this year, maybe even before Moncada does.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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We've seen enough prospects the last couple years to fly through the system and make it to the show with very little AA/AAA at bats or experience at a position. Plus, players of his kind (low strike out% decent bb%) do adjust quickly. It's the Xander's, JBJ's, and Moncada's that do not. Margot will adjust quickly to the bigs too. Of course, Dubon isn't the same level of prospect. He's also 22, not 21.

It's very possible Dubon's power surge in Portland was a fluke, or maybe he took a step forward as a player. I don't see how it's all that outlandish to suggest a guy who is going to start in Pawtucket and get at bats this spring could possibly make the team and start with a good spring if the other 4 guys really suck and they don't sign anyone else. It's literally an everything has to go right scenerio, which I even noted. I guess you take offense to the term "outside chance." Dubon is most likely not even Brock Holt, though. Whatever.

Dubon is going to get at bats in Boston this year, maybe even before Moncada does.
You think Dubon is going to...

1. Start the season in Pawtuckett

and

2. Take reps in the field away from Moncada that would be necessary for him to leapfrog him on the depth chart?

Forget the preposterous notion that he might be the opening day starter in Boston... that last line would require the organization prioritizing Mauricio Fucking Dubon over Yoan Moncada to play out. You're nuts.

Edit: Plus, there is almost no chance the opening day starter is anyone but Pablo Sandoval if he stays healthy. Even if the plan is to replace him at mid-season with Moncada, they need to give him a little time to build some trade value in the hope that they can convince another team to eat some of his contract when they dump it.
 

Cesar Crespo

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You think Dubon is going to...

1. Start the season in Pawtuckett

and

2. Take reps in the field away from Moncada that would be necessary for him to leapfrog him on the depth chart?

Forget the preposterous notion that he might be the opening day starter in Boston... that last line would require the organization prioritizing Mauricio Fucking Dubon over Yoan Moncada to play out. You're nuts.

Edit: Plus, there is almost no chance the opening day starter is anyone but Pablo Sandoval if he stays healthy. Even if the plan is to replace him at mid-season with Moncada, they need to give him a little time to build some trade value in the hope that they can convince another team to eat some of his contract when they dump it.
1. Why wouldn't he?
2. No, but I don't think he needs to. If he makes it to the bigs, it's most likely as a UI because chances are the jump he made last year wasn't real anyway. He's going to be playing 2b and 3b sooner or later, it's his path to the majors.

He's not going to start. It's a turn of phrase. But it's still in the realm of possible outcomes, regardless of how remote. Dubon is on the depth chart. Plus I think Moncada needs half a season at AAA, and when he gets called up it is to start and to stay. If Dubon gets called up, it's to sit and probably get sent back down. So him getting a call up before Moncada wouldn't be too shocking. He doesn't need to leapfrog him.
 

grimshaw

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If lefty power is what they are looking for, probably the closest in oWAR would be Cano. There are a lot of obstacles to acquiring him. One being a NTC. He may not wave it if he wants to play defense which his defense when compared to the incumbent second baseman isn't as good. Then there is the matter of his $24 million/yr owed through age 40 (2023 season) and the acquisition cost. Never mind how interested Seattle would be in moving him.

I'm not supporting this idea, simply bringing it to the table for discussion for the greater minds of SoSH.
You're the best player on a team that gets knocked out of the playoffs with 4 days left in the season and just had the 2nd or 3rd best season of your career. You would waive your NTC to DH the rest of your career in Boston? I'm sure there would be no ego problems whatsoever between him and Pedey.
 

E5 Yaz

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You're the best player on a team that gets knocked out of the playoffs with 4 days left in the season and just had your 2nd or 3rd best season of your career. You would waive your NTC to DH the rest of your career in Boston?
I was trying to grasp how trading Cano makes Seattle better? Even if he were to waive the no-trade, no one's taking that entire contract -- which means Seattle has to pay some of it just to wind up with a lesser package of prospects, or someone else's bad contract
 

MikeM

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Edit: Plus, there is almost no chance the opening day starter is anyone but Pablo Sandoval if he stays healthy. Even if the plan is to replace him at mid-season with Moncada, they need to give him a little time to build some trade value in the hope that they can convince another team to eat some of his contract when they dump it.
So after not winning the job coming out of ST last spring and sitting out almost the entire year, we are automatically back to the same exact claim and supporting logic that didn't even prove accurate the first time?

Even acknowledging Sandoval as probably being the hypothetical and best case scenario playing out favorite to indeed win the job, right now, I'm not yet buying into a concept that it's a given he's even on the roster come opening day. Or more specifically, that any real "salvage what value when can out of Pablo Sandoval" priority actually exists anymore and at this point going into the 2nd season of the DD era.

In an off-season that is already starting with us taking a huge step backwards (minus Ortiz), banking on Sandoval to hold down the job AND for Moncada to be ready to run with it mid-season is more of a "punt" play then any type of ideal "plan" atm/imo. If there is some middle ground to be had out there between that and handing Justin Turner some huge contract, and which still preserves Moncada's spot as a near future (but doesn't all but mandate it be next season) full time contributor to this team, I'd like to think DD plans on giving it a thorough look.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Unless you think they are completely resigned to eating every penny left on the contract, I'm not sure how you don't see Pablo being the opening day 3B. Last season Shaw looked, from his spring training performance, like he might be something and even if they weren't convinced, you ride the hot hand and hopefully motivate Pablo.

We've seen what Shaw is and he's nothing worth eating that big a contract for. Moncada isn't ready. Holy is exposed as an everyday player. Pipe dreams like Dubon are exactly that.

So your options are:

- throw good money after bad and sign a Turner type FA, even though Moncada should be ready in the next year or so
- try to patch something together with Holt and bringing back someone like Hill
- give Pablo a month at least to get some of your money's worth to see if he's healthy and productive

I don't see how the last there isn't the best option. Best case scenario he rebounds and if Moncada pushes him you have a good problem. Worst case you've gotten shit out of 3B (nothing new over the last handful of years) for a few weeks and you cut him.
 

chawson

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I have kind of a crush on Luis Valbuena — who is a little Bellhornian — but he might need a two-year deal. He'd make be a fine bridge to Moncada but would preclude any type of Pablo resuscitation.

Could see DD trading for Trevor Plouffe as a still-functional version of Aaron Hill if we keep things the way they are.
 
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FinanceAdvice

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I agree on Sale/Quintana. I think he will pursue something, but I agree I'd rather they keep Moncada.

Encarnacion makes a ton of sense for a lot of reasons. But I really love the idea of not being wedded to one DH, but rather using the DH position as a way to "rest" players, rotating them through.
For Starting Rotation, Id go with Porcello (hoping he doesn't come down to earth), Price(hoping he reverts to his career era of 3.16, prior to this so-so year), Wright, Rodriquez and Buchholz. I think Pomeranz should be groomed as a Lefty Bullpen ace hopefully along the lines of a Andrew Miller.

I'd love to see Sandoval make a Comeback of the Year at third!

Did you accidentally leave out Zieglar in the BullPen?
 

reggiecleveland

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I was trying to grasp how trading Cano makes Seattle better? Even if he were to waive the no-trade, no one's taking that entire contract -- which means Seattle has to pay some of it just to wind up with a lesser package of prospects, or someone else's bad contract
Cana is undoubtedly the man in Seattle that has to be at lest a factor in him leaving NY.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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For me, priority number one should be Chapman. The bullpen was the weak part of this team over 162, despite how they looked down the stretch. While I'd love to add another starter on top of that, I think getting Chapman should be the top priority. He doesn't require a draft pick, just money, probably stupid money, but just money.

Offensively, Encarnacion is an obvious choice, but ultimately not entirely necessary.

Don't resign Buchholz.

If you're trading for a starter, again I suggest going hard. Make Moncada available. If he's enough to anchor a deal for Sale then you consider it. If such a deal also requires other substantial pieces, you don't do it.

Behind the plate, I think the combination of Hanigan (option), Vazquez, Leon, and Swihart will probably be good enough to not worry much there.

At third, I'd make it a Spring Training competition for playing time between Shaw, Sandoval, and if he hasn't been traded, Moncada.
 

PTC

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Totally agree 100% And as someone mentioned above, he and his wife also had a baby in the middle of the season, so I can imagine that tired him out quite a bit (as a father of 4 myself, I'm certain of it! :) )
Pitchers are so streaky in Boston that unless you're talking about a strong #1, does it even make practical sense to deal him for a pitcher? I mean for this to make sense you have to believe that:

A) Benintendi can play very good CF
B) That we have someone who is at least 2-ish WAR who can play LF
and
C) Believe that the pitcher we're going to get can make a real difference

That pitcher, by the way, would need to put up a better line than Price did in '16 for the deal to make much sense. Now, history says the odds of C. happening in the first year are low (See: Beckett, Josh; Porcello, Rick; Price, David). So at that point you're making a deal assuming it's not going to start being beneficial until at least year 2?

Thanks, but no thanks.
 

NDame616

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Don't resign Buchholz.

If you're trading for a starter, again I suggest going hard. Make Moncada available. If he's enough to anchor a deal for Sale then you consider it. If such a deal also requires other substantial pieces, you don't do it.

Behind the plate, I think the combination of Hanigan (option), Vazquez, Leon, and Swihart will probably be good enough to not worry much there.

At third, I'd make it a Spring Training competition for playing time between Shaw, Sandoval, and if he hasn't been traded, Moncada.
We aren't "resigning Buchholz". He has an option, which will 100% be picked up because it's not a lot of money and if you went out on the open market to get someone similar to him (a 4/5 starter) in this off season they probably command 3/$45M or so. He was fairly effective as a reliever, and the second half of the season had a 3.22 ERA.

People need to wrap their mind around the notion that Clay Buchholz will be on the Red Sox next season.
 

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We aren't "resigning Buchholz". He has an option, which will 100% be picked up because it's not a lot of money and if you went out on the open market to get someone similar to him (a 4/5 starter) in this off season they probably command 3/$45M or so. He was fairly effective as a reliever, and the second half of the season had a 3.22 ERA.

People need to wrap their mind around the notion that Clay Buchholz will be on the Red Sox next season.
Everyone should be resigned to that
 

PTC

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What makes you think that pitchers are streakier in Boston than anywhere else?
I guess what I meant to say was that Boston is a place where a lot of decent pitchers come and get totally exposed. And unless we're dealing JBJ for a bonafide (don't-matter-where-he-plays) kind of guy, I think it's a bad move. And you add that to the fact that we're seeing it can sometimes take a year here to get into the swing....it only makes that kind of deal worse.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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We aren't "resigning Buchholz". He has an option, which will 100% be picked up because it's not a lot of money and if you went out on the open market to get someone similar to him (a 4/5 starter) in this off season they probably command 3/$45M or so. He was fairly effective as a reliever, and the second half of the season had a 3.22 ERA.

People need to wrap their mind around the notion that Clay Buchholz will be on the Red Sox next season.
Yeah, I misspoke, I meant option. But I'm sick of paying for mediocrity. That's what Clay Buccholz is. I would rather Henry Owens be given that swing spot and use Buchholz's money for something actually worthwhile. Paying for mediocrity like Clay Buchholz gets you eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. The SoSH mentality of paying for mediocrity because it's a good value is really tiresome.
 

ehaz

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Yeah, I misspoke, I meant option. But I'm sick of paying for mediocrity. That's what Clay Buccholz is. I would rather Henry Owens be given that swing spot and use Buchholz's money for something actually worthwhile. Paying for mediocrity like Clay Buchholz gets you eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. The SoSH mentality of paying for mediocrity because it's a good value is really tiresome.
The same Henry Owens that walked 8 batters per nine this year? That sure seems like a recipe for success.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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The same Henry Owens that walked 8 batters per nine this year? That sure seems like a recipe for success.
If not him, than someone else that's making less than $13.5 mil. There have been 3 years in Clay's career where he has been worth that salary 2010, 2013 and 2015. He's not a good pitcher. We get tantalized by 10 start stretches amidst what is a wildly inconsistent pitcher.

Re: Owens, you're using a smaller sample size than what was used a few posts earlier defending Clay's quality.

The reality is, neither guy should be considered anything more than a 7th or 8th SP option and one costs $13 million less than the other.
 

johnnywayback

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Yeah, I misspoke, I meant option. But I'm sick of paying for mediocrity. That's what Clay Buccholz is. I would rather Henry Owens be given that swing spot and use Buchholz's money for something actually worthwhile. Paying for mediocrity like Clay Buchholz gets you eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. The SoSH mentality of paying for mediocrity because it's a good value is really tiresome.
Clay Buchholz isn't mediocre, he's extremely inconsistent -- his entire career, he's either been a) one of the best pitchers in the league or b) injured and/or a total mess. He is capable of being the kind of guy who gets you to the playoffs, and, in fact, he was that kind of guy as recently as the second half of this year. You would rather have him over a guy who achieves the same aggregate results with no variance, especially in a role where you can use him more (rotation) or less (long relief) depending on how he's looking.

Henry Owens has never been Buchholz-good in the major leagues, even for a little while, nor has there ever been any evidence that he would be a more effective reliever than he is a starter. They're just not comparable as 6th-starter options.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If not him, than someone else that's making less than $13.5 mil.
Name that pitcher. Please. Is there a better pitcher than Buchholz on the free agent market this year? One that will be cheaper than $13.5M? Buchholz as a free agent probably gets at least that if not more on the market this winter, so picking up the option is really a no-brainer. Picking up the option doesn't mean he is on the 2017 team though. He can always be flipped for "something useful". That assumes, of course, that they can adequately replace him on the pitching staff. That would be the hard part, especially if the caveat is that it has to be someone cheaper.

One thing is clear and that is that Henry Owens is not that guy. He's yet to be better than Buchholz even when Buchholz was at his implode-y worst. All Owens has going for him is he's dirt cheap and young (so could improve). What he isn't is good enough to hand a spot in the 2017 rotation (beyond being the 7th or 8th starter stashed in Pawtucket). Buchholz, despite his ups and downs, is more than good enough to be the 5th starter (or better) on pretty much any team in the league.

Owens in 16 career MLB starts: 5.19 ERA, 5.00 FIP, 1.518 WHIP, 1.61 K/BB
Buchholz the last two years (39 starts, 55 appearances): 4.10 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.274 WHIP, 2.56 K/BB
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Henry Owens has never been Buchholz-good in the major leagues, even for a little while, nor has there ever been any evidence that he would be a more effective reliever than he is a starter. They're just not comparable as 6th-starter options.

This is true (that Owens hasn't shown he could be an effective reliever).... but he has clearly shown that he very likely won't ever be an average starting pitcher and he has enough talent in his arm that he could possibly harness it for one inning stints and at this point. The Sox should make it a priority to shifting him into a bullpen role in AAA to start the season next year.
They've got 6 quality starters (See! I'm resigned to Clay as a no. 4/5 next year!) plus a few guys in AAA who could make a spot start. I'd like to see them add a AAAA guy to a mL contract and get Henry going in the bullpen.
 

DrBoston

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Pitchers are so streaky in Boston that unless you're talking about a strong #1, does it even make practical sense to deal him for a pitcher? I mean for this to make sense you have to believe that:

A) Benintendi can play very good CF
B) That we have someone who is at least 2-ish WAR who can play LF
and
C) Believe that the pitcher we're going to get can make a real difference

That pitcher, by the way, would need to put up a better line than Price did in '16 for the deal to make much sense. Now, history says the odds of C. happening in the first year are low (See: Beckett, Josh; Porcello, Rick; Price, David). So at that point you're making a deal assuming it's not going to start being beneficial until at least year 2?

Thanks, but no thanks.
Agreed. And maybe I'm being too simplistic about this, but with this offense, even accounting for a dip in numbers as they look to replace Papi's production, they should be able to score more than enough runs to overcome not having that lights-out #1 starter. Price and Porcello should be enough at the front of the rotation if they keep mashing close to what they did this season.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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Clay Buchholz isn't mediocre, he's extremely inconsistent -- his entire career, he's either been a) one of the best pitchers in the league or b) injured and/or a total mess. He is capable of being the kind of guy who gets you to the playoffs, and, in fact, he was that kind of guy as recently as the second half of this year. You would rather have him over a guy who achieves the same aggregate results with no variance, especially in a role where you can use him more (rotation) or less (long relief) depending on how he's looking.

Henry Owens has never been Buchholz-good in the major leagues, even for a little while, nor has there ever been any evidence that he would be a more effective reliever than he is a starter. They're just not comparable as 6th-starter options.
Name that pitcher. Please. Is there a better pitcher than Buchholz on the free agent market this year? One that will be cheaper than $13.5M? Buchholz as a free agent probably gets at least that if not more on the market this winter, so picking up the option is really a no-brainer. Picking up the option doesn't mean he is on the 2017 team though. He can always be flipped for "something useful". That assumes, of course, that they can adequately replace him on the pitching staff. That would be the hard part, especially if the caveat is that it has to be someone cheaper.

One thing is clear and that is that Henry Owens is not that guy. He's yet to be better than Buchholz even when Buchholz was at his implode-y worst. All Owens has going for him is he's dirt cheap and young (so could improve). What he isn't is good enough to hand a spot in the 2017 rotation (beyond being the 7th or 8th starter stashed in Pawtucket). Buchholz, despite his ups and downs, is more than good enough to be the 5th starter (or better) on pretty much any team in the league.

Owens in 16 career MLB starts: 5.19 ERA, 5.00 FIP, 1.518 WHIP, 1.61 K/BB
Buchholz the last two years (39 starts, 55 appearances): 4.10 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.274 WHIP, 2.56 K/BB
Yes, I introduced Henry Owens into the conversation, but let's move off him for the time being. I agree he should not have a guaranteed spot outside of AAA for 2017. To johnnywayback's argument of mediocre vs inconsistent, that's semantics. Baseball 101 states you need reliable starting pitching. Buccholz doesn't provide that because he is inconsistent. Aside from that, we all know how maddeningly frustrating he is.

I'll admit that going into game 3, I had more confidence in Clay than I did Price in game 2, but the reality is I had little confidence in either player.

To answer the question, "name that pitcher" that would match Buchholz's output, that's a difficult task. Less so because the pitchers aren't available but more so because of how inconsistent he has been. It's entirely in the realm of possibility that Clay is worth $25 million next year. It's also entirely in the realm of possibility that he's worth $2 million. While that's true of any pitcher, his volatility is expected more than most. Personally, I'd rather have a guy like Wade Miley who I know will be a $10-15 million a year pitcher and nothing more. The performance is more reliable.

To answer the question on options, here are a few candidates, pretty much all of which are just as flawed as Clay, but likely cheaper:
Andrew Cashner - Could take a 1 year bounce back deal
Jaime Garcia - Similarly inconsistent to Clay, would require a trade
Kris Medlen
Tyson Ross - Might as well trade for more injured Padres pitchers.
Edinson Volquez - Royals are expected to decline his $10 mil option
Rich Hill - Not out of the question that he signs a 1 year deal, but I'm sure he'd be looking for 2.
 

E5 Yaz

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With the complete lack of starting pitching on the market this year, there is no chance that the unbelievably unreliable Rich Hill will sign a one year contract.
Of course, it could take Hill 2.5 seasons to pitch the equivalent of a one-year contract. So ... bargain
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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With the complete lack of starting pitching on the market this year, there is no chance that the unbelievably unreliable Rich Hill will sign a one year contract.
And even if he were willing to do the one-year deal, odds are pretty good he would cost at least $13M. So $13M to the "inconsistent" 32 year old or $13M+ to the oft-injured 38 year old who has topped 100 IP once in the last 10 years.
 

iayork

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I guess what I meant to say was that Boston is a place where a lot of decent pitchers come and get totally exposed.
What makes you say that decent pitchers get more exposed in Boston than elsewhere?
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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To johnnywayback's argument of mediocre vs inconsistent, that's semantics. Baseball 101 states you need reliable starting pitching. Buccholz doesn't provide that because he is inconsistent. Aside from that, we all know how maddeningly frustrating he is.
You keep saying this but you've done nothing to back it up. Show your work. Provide data that shows that an inconsistent pitcher who is excellent on one side, and awful on the other is no more or less valuable than a mediocre pitcher over the long haul.
 

jtn46

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Not really replying to anyone directly, but no Chapman please. I wouldn't be shocked at 5/$75m. Shoulder or elbow injury in the next 5 years seems very possible for a guy trying to throw every fastball 105 mph. And the whole threatening his wife thing.

The Red Sox don't need a closer nearly as badly as a lot of other rich teams, Kimbrel is good and I think will be better next season, but is a guy well-suited to the 9th where he can get away with being wild. If the Sox pursue a closer, Kimbrel wouldn't be foolish to demand a trade to a team that would let him close, given that his next contract will be his big payday.

Sox can look for options in middle relief but the bullpen is in pretty good shape. If they did nothing there it wouldn't be a disaster.
 

chawson

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Interested to see what philosophy shifts come from FO changes in Minnesota, Arizona, Miami, and elsewhere (like, uh, Boston?). They could want to off some contracts.

Whoever helms the Twins, it's worth seeing if they'd unload Miguel Sano after his down year. If taking on Perkins (1/$6.5), Plouffe (1/$7+/-), Hughes (3/($39.6 ... maybe), or Santana (2/$27)'s contracts would help lower the cost, I'd be into it. I could see each of those guys helping if they come back healthy, and that option could ultimately be cheaper than Encarnacion.
 

E5 Yaz

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Interested to see what philosophy shifts come from FO changes in Minnesota, Arizona, Miami, and elsewhere (like, uh, Boston?). They could want to off some contracts.
Something happen in Miami?

Whoever helms the Twins ...
His name is David Falvey. He takes over when the Indians end their postseason run
 
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Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Interested to see what philosophy shifts come from FO changes in Minnesota, Arizona, Miami, and elsewhere (like, uh, Boston?). They could want to off some contracts.

Whoever helms the Twins, it's worth seeing if they'd unload Miguel Sano after his down year. If taking on Perkins (1/$6.5), Plouffe (1/$7+/-), Hughes (3/($39.6 ... maybe), or Santana (2/$27)'s contracts would help lower the cost, I'd be into it. I could see each of those guys helping if they come back healthy, and that option could ultimately be cheaper than Encarnacion.
Sano is 23 years old, makes no money, and still has big upside. Why would Minnesota trade him?