The Off-Season: Bullpen edition

Mugsy's Jock

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The “The Off-Season” thread is starting to get a little unwieldy, so as we get into the teeth of the hot stove I figured it made sense to diversify some. Here’s one specialized thread, on the bullpen, presented to catch everyone up. I'll lay off editorializing/analyzing here -- just setting things up.

With Tazawa, Uehara and Ziegler subtracted as unrestricted free agents, the state of the Red Sox bullpen is… incomplete. Here’s what’s left, sorted by MLB innings pitched in 2016:

CRAIG KIMBREL (RHP) -- $13.25MM in 2017, $13MM option in 2018
MATT BARNES (RHP) –Arb eligible in 2019
ROBBIE ROSS JR. (LHP) – Arb eligible
HEATH HEMBREE (RHP) – Arb eligible in 2019
JOE KELLY (RHP) – Arb eligible
ROENIS ELIAS (LHP) – Arb eligible in 2019
CARSON SMITH (RHP) – Arb eligible in 2018. Likely not ready for Opening Day.

Not included are Steven Wright and Clay Buchholz, one of who will likely land outside the Opening Day starting rotation and could fill a bullpen seat cromulently.

Not included above are Williams Jerez, Kyle Martin, Noe Ramirez, Robbie Scott, Brandon Workman and Luis Ysla – all are shuttle fodder, and ideally would start the year in the minors.

Also not included is Fernando Abad*, because I just can’t.

Roughly speaking, the Sox should probably be looking to add 3 arms. Need at least one reliever capable of holding down the 8th inning, on the assumption that Smith won’t be available for a while. Kelly could be in the mix for later innings, hopefully.

I scanned the Off-Season thread and saw these names mentioned as prospective additions…

FREE AGENTS:
TOP-DRAWER TIER: Kenley Jensen, Aroldis Chapman (L)
8th INNING TIER: Brad Ziegler, Mark Melancon, Greg Holland
7th/8th INNING TIER: Sergio Romo, Koji Uehara, Travis Wood (L)
COMPETENT SEAT FILLERS: Junichi Tazawa, Santiago Casilla, Trevor Cahill, Jordan Walden, Joe Blanton
A FEW MORE TO THROW ON THE FIRE: Joaquin Benoit, Joe Smith

TRADE CANDIDATES:
SERIOUS TRADE COST: Wade Davis, Andrew Miller (L) (c’mon, he’s not available)
MODEST TRADE COST: David Robertson
A FEW MORE TO THROW ON THE FIRE: Hector Neris

* -- okay, so maybe I editorialized just a little
 

Green Monster

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I would add Sean Doolittle to the trade candidates. Not sure what the acquisition costs might be as Beane is usually pretty shrewd, but he is someone that could close and/or set-up and has the added advantage of being left handed.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/notes-athletics-brass-is-more-than-happy-to-listen-to-trade-pitches-111016

Doolittle, meanwhile, could be the prize of the group, considering the contracts that Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon are expected to command in free agency.

True, Doolittle missed more than two months with a strained shoulder. But he gradually increased his velocity after returning on Sept. 2, averaging 95 mph in his final four outings.

The A’s can hold him until the non-waiver deadline, gambling that his trade value will only increase, along with Gray’s and Vogt’s. Or they can act on one or all of them this offseason, continuing a process they started with their trade of left-hander Rich Hill and outfielder Josh Reddick to the Dodgers for Cotton, lefty Frankie Montas and righty Grant Holmes on Aug. 1.

Depends upon what the market will bear.
 
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Green Monster

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More on Doolittle

http://calltothepen.com/2016/11/11/oakland-athletics-ready-to-listen-on-top-names/

Doolittle is in a similar position, as he has been a dominant reliever at times, but has been recovering from injury the past two seasons. His fastball velocity started to climb towards the end of this season, and with that he should have a solid return to form. The market has big name relievers that will command large sums, but Doolittle is an option for a team that is on a budget and has prospects to spare.
 

grimshaw

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With Jensen as a long shot, I would next want Romo and his all sliders, all the time and take a crack with Joe Smith who has been effective in 2 of the last three seasons. AL East teams haven't seen much of either, so I think it would be an added advantage. Smith may be better value and seems like he could handle Taz' 7th or 8th inning slot.

With his career 10k/9, good home run rate (.8 per 9) and walk rate under 2, Romo could be used as a relief ace. I'd only be concerned about contract length since he will be 34 on opening day and I think in this market he may get 4 years.

I'm not necessarily against Melancon either. Maybe his stuff has really improved and can translate to the AL. He actually talked about how much he liked Boston in an interview I saw on tv last year, so there may be mutual interest.

I'd give Scott a crack as well and pretend Abad doesn't exist.
 
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iayork

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I'm not necessarily against Melancon either. Maybe his stuff has really improved and can translate to the AL.
His cutter has always been well above average, and the year after he left the Sox he began using it far more often (30% of the time in 2012, 75% in 2013, according to BrooksBaseball; my estimate isn't quite as dramatic but it's close). He used the cutter instead of his fastball, which in 2012 was a mediocre pitch, but gained effectiveness as it became less common (presumably because of the surprise factor).

His knuckle curve has almost always been very effective as well; the one down year it had was 2012, when he was halfway through the process of changing it from a horizontal to a vertical break. In 2016, it ranked as one of the most effective pitches in the majors, and he's always used it quite a bit (approximately 25%).

Melancon in 2016 is a completely different, and much more effective, pitcher from the guy we saw in 2012. Everything I see in his patterns says that he was in the process of drastically changing his approach in 2012 and completed that change in 2013. I think it's real.

MM_years.gif
 

nattysez

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This is mostly anecdotal, but:

Doolittle missed most of 2015 and a big chunk of 2016 with injury. I don't think he is someone you can rely on. Assume he's the new Andrew Bailey and proceed accordingly.

Romo is very hit and miss. He benefited from pitching in a big, cold park. He is entirely dependent on his slider and when it's not working, he's very hittable. He is also an injury risk. I'd only sign him as a ROOGY.

Santiago Casilla could not be used at home late last season because his confidence was so down that the Giants were worried that the booing would cause him to pitch poorly. I don't think he would handle Boston well.
http://www.mercurynews.com/2016/10/12/casillas-goodbye-just-the-latest-sad-scene-from-a-very-cruel-game/
 

Green Monster

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This is mostly anecdotal, but:

Doolittle missed most of 2015 and a big chunk of 2016 with injury. I don't think he is someone you can rely on. Assume he's the new Andrew Bailey and proceed accordingly.

Romo is very hit and miss. He benefited from pitching in a big, cold park. He is entirely dependent on his slider and when it's not working, he's very hittable. He is also an injury risk. I'd only sign him as a ROOGY.

Santiago Casilla could not be used at home late last season because his confidence was so down that the Giants were worried that the booing would cause him to pitch poorly. I don't think he would handle Boston well.
http://www.mercurynews.com/2016/10/12/casillas-goodbye-just-the-latest-sad-scene-from-a-very-cruel-game/
Agree on Doolittle.....Would have to closely review medical reports provided by someone other than AJ Preller. The reports that he was throwing 95 by year end last season are encouraging.
 

Cesar Crespo

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They have other guys on the farm that could conceivably help the bullpen at some point in 2017 that wouldn't be considered fodder in Cosart and Kopech. As far as fodder goes, they also have Chandler Shepherd and Ben Taylor. The former 2 will start in AA, the latter 2 in AAA (maybe Taylor starts in AA, I can never figure out their bullpen placements/promotions). For Cosart and Kopech, 2018 or 2019 is more likely but they both potentially have impact arms. Kopech may also ultimately end up a starter.

As of right now, it looks like we will be relying heavily on Joe Kelly and that his new pitch mix in the bullpen is the real deal. I am extremely high on Joe Kelly and think he has a shot at being the teams best MR next year but I'd rather not go into the season counting on him to set up Kimbrel. I also think Ross is criminally underrated. Outside of those 3, no one really inspires any confidence. I guess Matt Barnes is a candidate to improve.

I'd take Koji back for a year if he was willing and it was cheap enough. Of the other bullpen arms, the only ones I'd be enticed by are Jensen, Ziggler and Melancon. Chapman's off field issues exclude him. Those 4 are probably outside the Redsox price range too so it'll be interesting to see what they do.
 

johnnywayback

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One name not in this thread so far is Daniel Hudson, who had a rough year but looks better going by peripherals (high K rate). I think maybe I just like him because I read Jeff Passan's book about Tommy John surgery and Hudson is a likable protagonist, but he also seems like a guy with a chance of being a 7th-inning option for not much money.
 

simplicio

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One name not in this thread so far is Daniel Hudson, who had a rough year but looks better going by peripherals (high K rate). I think maybe I just like him because I read Jeff Passan's book about Tommy John surgery and Hudson is a likable protagonist, but he also seems like a guy with a chance of being a 7th-inning option for not much money.
We already have a bunch of those guys though. We need a dominant 8th/9th guy.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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One name not in this thread so far is Daniel Hudson, who had a rough year but looks better going by peripherals (high K rate). I think maybe I just like him because I read Jeff Passan's book about Tommy John surgery and Hudson is a likable protagonist, but he also seems like a guy with a chance of being a 7th-inning option for not much money.
He's had TWO Tommy John surgeries and got hammered last year, including a very bad 2nd half. His projections are mediocre. Meh.
 

Spelunker

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When I saw that Matt Barnes was wanted by NYC police for choking a woman in a Manhattan night club I was very happy to learn that there was a NBA player by the same name.
 

johnnywayback

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So now our Opening Day bullpen seems to be:

-- Three high-leverage late-inning guys: Kimbrel, Thornburg, Kelly
-- Two lefties: Ross and Abad (note: Thornburg is also particularly effective against LHH and would likely be used against them in high leverage)
-- Two middle-innings guys: Barnes, Hembree
-- A long reliever / rotation exile: probably Wright

That's a good bullpen, but it has one too many arms in it, even without an invitee or two -- we'll likely see a battle between Barnes and Hembree in Fort Myers. And, of course, they'll have Smith coming back at some point in the first half of the season.

EDITED TO ADD: Barnes has options remaining; Hembree does not. If Barnes wins the battle for the last slot, they'll likely trade Hembree (and probably get something mildly useful back). If Hembree wins it, Barnes joins Workman and Kyle Martin and the rest of the Pawtucket shuttle crew.
 
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grimshaw

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So now our Opening Day bullpen seems to be:

That's a good bullpen, but it has one too many arms in it, even without an invitee or two -- we'll likely see a battle between Barnes and Hembree in Fort Myers. And, of course, they'll have Smith coming back at some point in the first half of the season.
FWIW - Hembree and Abad are out of options but Barnes is not. http://bosoxinjection.com/2016/10/14/red-sox-players-minor-league-options/3/
It wouldn't shock me if Hembree and/or Abad were dealt late in spring training if Scott out pitches Abad and Hembree just gets lost in the numbers.
 

Green Monster

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So now our Opening Day bullpen seems to be:

-- Three high-leverage late-inning guys: Kimbrel, Thornburg, Kelly
-- Two lefties: Ross and Abad (note: Thornburg is also particularly effective against LHH and would likely be used against them in high leverage)
-- Two middle-innings guys: Barnes, Hembree
-- A long reliever / rotation exile: probably Wright

That's a good bullpen, but it has one too many arms in it, even without an invitee or two -- we'll likely see a battle between Barnes and Hembree in Fort Myers. And, of course, they'll have Smith coming back at some point in the first half of the season.

EDITED TO ADD: Barnes has options remaining; Hembree does not. If Barnes wins the battle for the last slot, they'll likely trade Hembree (and probably get something mildly useful back). If Hembree wins it, Barnes joins Workman and Kyle Martin and the rest of the Pawtucket shuttle crew.

Also have to figure whoever ends up with the 6th starter role will windup in the pen

edit: oops already factored in with inclusion of Wright
 

AB in DC

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So now our Opening Day bullpen seems to be:

-- Three high-leverage late-inning guys: Kimbrel, Thornburg, Kelly
-- Two lefties: Ross and Abad (note: Thornburg is also particularly effective against LHH and would likely be used against them in high leverage)
-- Two middle-innings guys: Barnes, Hembree
-- A long reliever / rotation exile: probably Wright

That's a good bullpen, but it has one too many arms in it, even without an invitee or two
I like Kimbrel/Thornburgh/Kelly as high-leverage (usually 8th-9th inning) guys and Barnes/Ross as medium leverage (6th-7th inning). That leaves once spot for long relief (Wright/Buchholz if everyone stays healthy, or Elias in case of injury to the top six), plus whoever is holding the seat warm for Carson Smith (Hembree or Abad or spring training invitee).

That's a pretty good bullpen -- not quite Indians 2016 or Royals 2014 but close.
 

DeadlySplitter

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This is fairly obvious, but: DD just said in press conference that offer was made to Koji a few days ago, but with the Thornburg trade we're moving on from him.

Alex Speier ‏@alexspeier 2m2 minutes ago
Dombrowski says Sox had made an offer to Koji, he wasn't ready to give an answer, and so team moved on to Thornburg. Sox now out on Uehara.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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This is fairly obvious, but: DD just said in press conference that offer was made to Koji a few days ago, but with the Thornburg trade we're moving on from him.
Very obvious. I'll always be thankful for 2013 and mad that the team didn't move him in 2014. Good luck Koji!
 

Hank Scorpio

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Sale
Price
Porcello
Rodriguez

Buchholz
Pomeranz
Wright

Hembree
Abad
Smith
Ross
Barnes
Kelly
Thornburg
Kimbrel

Leon
Ramirez
Pedroia
Bogaerts
Sandoval
Betts
Bradley
Benintendi

Moreland
Young
Vazquez
Holt
Hernandez

That's 28 players. At least three or four of those pitchers won't have a spot on the 25 man roster come April. It'll be interesting to see how it shakes out. Pomeranz could be dealt for something useful, but he could also serve as a dual purpose backup for Buchholz/Wright, and in case Abad sucks again. Kind of neat that two of our 5-7 starters were All Stars last season.
 

Plympton91

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Barring trades, Matt Barnes is likely in AAA to start next season. That's some pretty good depth right there. Apparently Workman still has an option as well? That's more pitching depth, hopefully. Elias, Hembree, and Abad all need to be in the big leagues, but there is no room at the inn. I wonder what the Red Sox could get for Ross in this market, in addition to shopping Pom and Buchholz?
 

Hank Scorpio

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Barring trades, Matt Barnes is likely in AAA to start next season. That's some pretty good depth right there. Apparently Workman still has an option as well? That's more pitching depth, hopefully. Elias, Hembree, and Abad all need to be in the big leagues, but there is no room at the inn. I wonder what the Red Sox could get for Ross in this market, in addition to shopping Pom and Buchholz?
Abad and Elias were abysmal last season. The upside of keeping them around is they claim jobs in spring training and pitch up to their capabilities in 2017. The downside is they're outpitched by players who have options, and we either need to start the season with a less than optimal bullpen, or we're forced to deal them at diminished value while we're under an obvious roster crunch. I'd rather Ross or Hembree over either post-deadline Abad or Elias.

If we're dealing Pomeranz or Wright, I'd expect something very good back in return. Buchholz should also fetch something moderately useful. As for Abad and Elias, I'd be content to flip them for some useful low-lev arms with options that we can stash in AAA for a year or two.

Not entirely sold on this group yet, either. A successful return by Carson Smith would make me feel a lot better, but so far we're replacing Ziegler, Uehara, and Tazawa with one guy. Smith and Kelly could be the other two, but we'll see.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Abad was abysmal in 18 games for the Red Sox. He was pretty damn good in 39 games for the Twins.

That's the nature of relievers. Sadly the small sample leads to variance unless it's an elite guy. And you can't build a full pen out of elite guys. It's just not realistic.

I'm not arguing for either to be relied upon, but they fall in that soft grey area of low or mid leverage guys that you need but can't really count on. It's just reality.
 

Harry Hooper

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Barring trades, Matt Barnes is likely in AAA to start next season. That's some pretty good depth right there. Apparently Workman still has an option as well? That's more pitching depth, hopefully. Elias, Hembree, and Abad all need to be in the big leagues, but there is no room at the inn. I wonder what the Red Sox could get for Ross in this market, in addition to shopping Pom and Buchholz?
I believe Barnes is out of options.
 

joe dokes

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Workman has been optioned 3 times (4/3/15, April 2014 after a few appearances, and 7/31/13).

That's all he gets, right?

EDIT: I think he was called back to Boston after only 10 days or so in '13, so they didn't burn one then.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I would think that the whole package that they got Thornburg for was offered for Davis. For a player with 1 year of control, that would have been a nice deal for KC.
While still falling far short of the upside of Soler and ignoring the fact they have no need for a Travis Shaw in their every day lineup unless they intend to move Moustakis or Hosmer.

Edit: And also ignoring the fact that Shaw sucks and is much more the second half player than he is the first half guy.
 

RedOctober3829

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While still falling far short of the upside of Soler and ignoring the fact they have no need for a Travis Shaw in their every day lineup unless they intend to move Moustakis or Hosmer.

Edit: And also ignoring the fact that Shaw sucks and is much more the second half player than he is the first half guy.
Both players are FA's after this season and Shaw could have come off the bench and filled in at 1st and 3rd as he would have in Boston if they didn't move either player this offseason and Shaw could have stepped in at either spot in 2018 if one left.

Soler has more upside than Shaw and I think everyone knows that but he comes with question marks. In similar major league plate appearances(778 for Shaw and 765 for Soler) they have similar OPS+(.762 for Soler and .754 for Shaw). Now could a change of scenery and the possibility of being a DH do Soler some good? Absolutely. He's going into his age 25 season and has plenty of time to turn things around.

Dayton Moore made the right choice in choosing Soler's power upside over the cheaper and more versatile Shaw. But, if Soler wasn't on the market the Shaw plus Dubon/Pennington package is more than a fair return for a closer with 1 year of control.
 

nvalvo

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Soler has more upside than Shaw and I think everyone knows that but he comes with question marks. In similar major league plate appearances(778 for Shaw and 765 for Soler) they have similar OPS+(.762 for Soler and .754 for Shaw). Now could a change of scenery and the possibility of being a DH do Soler some good? Absolutely. He's going into his age 25 season and has plenty of time to turn things around.
Also, both players ended the season in brutal slumps in which they were striking out way too much way too predictably because the league had figured out how to pitch to them. Both guys need to make an adjustment just to maintain their career numbers.