The New Salary Cap Thread

teds_head

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Per NHL.com...
Tuesday, 06.23.2015 
"The managers learned the upper limit of the salary cap for the 2015-16 season will be $71.4 million, with the lower limit $52.8 million."
 

PedroSpecialK

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Update for post-July 1/the death of the Savard contract:
 

 
 

 
Ices the following roster:
 
Beleskey - Krejci - Eriksson
Marchand - Bergeron - Connolly
Hayes - Spooner - Pastrnak
Rinaldo - Kelly - Talbot
Ferlin/Kemppainen
 
Chara - Trotman
Krug - Seidenberg
Morrow - McQuaid
Miller
 
Rask
Backup
 
 
Essentially, $10.2m to re-sign Hayes, Connolly, and a backup G. I really hope they move Kelly, because that gives them a lot of flexibility to bring in a top-4 defender.
 

The Napkin

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right here
https://twitter.com/kluedeke29/status/618125035820048384
 
Kirk Luedeke ‏@kluedeke29 3m3 minutes ago
By my scratch math- Bruins have about $5.5M in space left. Top-4 D, backup G with NHL experience most pressing needs going into 15-16.
 
https://twitter.com/AmalieBenjamin/status/618125608229445632
 
Amalie Benjamin ‏@AmalieBenjamin 2m2 minutes ago
The Bruins now have approximately $66,435,667 committed to 20 players for 2015-2016 (inc. Pastrnak/Smith), also inc. overages & Lucic.
 

amfox1

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I'm counting 23 players, as is PSK.  The three last min deals are approx $2.2-2.4 mm, depending on which combination of players you use.  Obviously, the Bruins can use those slots for upgrades.
 

PedroSpecialK

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I'm with Amfox's $2.55m - not sure where Kirk's getting the add'l $3m in space fro. If you expose Ferlin to waivers or send Kemppainen down, you've got another $875k/$700k respectively, but not seeing much else.
 

 
 

PedroSpecialK

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Ah - they also don't include a 7th defenseman, I've got Morrow breaking camp with the team.
 
Smith's $600k, Morrow's $863,333.33, Ferlin's $875k, and Kemppainen's $700k add up to $3.03m so that's right about on
 

PedroSpecialK

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There were some q's around next years cap so I decided to take a look into the future...
 
TheStoryofYourRedRightAnkle said:
I would kill any two of you for the Bs to be able sign Kopitar.
 
In terms of the '15-'16 cap, the B's would have the following impending FAs. Still looking way too far ahead but to get a sense of their situation:
 
UFA: Eriksson, Kelly, Talbot, Kemppainen, K Miller, J Smith
RFA (guesstimate AAV): Connolly ($3m), Ferlin ($1m), Krug ($4.5m), Morrow ($1.25m), Trotman ($1.25m), C Miller ($800,000) - Khokhlachev and Griffith are also RFA but not sure they'll get a look
 
Roster would look like this, full cap situation linked here:
 
Beleskey - Krejci - Pastrnak
Marchand - Bergeron - Connolly
XX - Spooner - Hayes
Ferlin - Rinaldo - Hickman
XX
 
Chara - Trotman
Seidenberg - Krug
Morrow - McQuaid
C. Miller
 
Rask
McIntyre
 
As that roster stands - and if those estimates are close to accurate on aggregate - the B's would have just over $9m in cap space to fill the 3rd line LW and upgrade the roster, so seems like they'd be able to make some noise in the UFA/trade markets next summer if need be.
 

Red Right Ankle

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Those look reasonable to me.  The big unknown is how much the cap will grow vs. high talent player salaries.  Will guys like Kopitar and Stamkos (if unsigned) go for a little or a lot more next year.  This year was useless since there wasn't any high end UFA talent really available.  Stastny got 7M from the Blues and he's great, but not the player that Kopitar or Stamkos are (and was older last year than Stamkos will be next year), so I have to figure those guys both get significant raises.  Stamkos should be looking at Kane/Toews money at least.
 

teds_head

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The Canadian dollar just hit a 6 year low, trading at about 77 cents.
​It was trading at 93 cents this time last year.
 
Supposedly the 7 Canadian teams generate roughly 1/3 of the revenue for the NHL.
Things can change over the next year, but this doesn't bode well for much of a cap increase (if any) in 2016.
 

MiracleOfO2704

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It was $0.93 USD to $1 CAD this time last year, but not long past this point, the Canadian dollar hit a nosedive, so I think the bulk of the US gains/Canadian losses were reflected in the 2015-16 cap.
 
Just as important was the slide the CAD took at the end of 2013. That the loonie briefly rebounded last year isn't as important as the fact that this it's generally been in the neighborhood of $0.80 for almost two years now.
 

teds_head

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MiracleOfO2704 said:
It was $0.93 USD to $1 CAD this time last year, but not long past this point, the Canadian dollar hit a nosedive, so I think the bulk of the US gains/Canadian losses were reflected in the 2015-16 cap.
 
Just as important was the slide the CAD took at the end of 2013. That the loonie briefly rebounded last year isn't as important as the fact that this it's generally been in the neighborhood of $0.80 for almost two years now.
 
That's not exactly true. 
From the fall of 2009 until last fall, it hadn't traded below 90 cents.
It started to really sink in the fall of 2014 when the bottom fell out of the oil market.
 

PedroSpecialK

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Here's an update in light of the Backes, Liles, and Khudobin signings. I'm guessing they sign 1-2 more forwards, as this has Heinen starting the year with the team due to Krejci's recovery from hip surgery. Vesey isn't looking quite as sure as a month ago so I haven't penciled him in, pretty much have $7.5m to play with to swing a trade for a D upgrade and round out the forward roster.

Projections for RFAs are for AAVs and are in italics.

 

lexrageorge

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How much can we afford to pay Pasta?
Hard to say exactly, but according to the site below, the Bruins are projected to have ~$61M in committed cap spending after the Marchand extension. If we assume Jimmy Hayes is playing for Las Vegas or Providence, and if we assume a flat cap of $73M, then the B's would have just over $14M in cap space for next season to spend on:

- Pasta extension
- Spooner extension or replacement
- Replacements or extensions for Moore (UFA), Czarnik, Acciari, and Schaller (all RFA).
- Replacements for Lilles (UFA) and Morrow (RFA).

Of the 7 non-Pasta RFA/UFA's, I'm sure some will be replaced by guys on ELC's, others on vet minimums, and others may be extended. If we assume an average cap hit of $1M for those 7, that leaves probably about $5M for Pasta, which still leaves a small amount of breathing room for in-season pickups and anything I likely missed.

Bottom line: Spooner is likely gone. And if the cap decreases we're really screwed with regards to Pastrnak. Don't forget that if the B's don't qualify for the playoffs Sweeney may be gone as well.

And, here's the link: http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=BOS
 

PedroSpecialK

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Hayes going to Providence doesn't help the B's by more than league min + $375k in terms of cap space. Hat tip to Dom Tiano, he relayed the point that there is no escrow in the AHL, meaning Hayes saves $368k (and costs the Bruins that amount supplementally) in real money.

Minimal shot he gets sent down rather than bought out - if he's still around post-expansion draft, the B's can execute a later buyout by taking one of their RFAs to arbitration, then buying Hayes out during the second buyout period. His buyout cap hits would by $566,667 ('17-'18) and $866,667 ('18-'19) - well worth it rather than having $1.3m on the cap in Providence, IMO.

This is what the picture looks like if there are no changes made to the roster outside of:
  • Hayes being bought out
  • Moore to UFA
  • Liles to UFA
  • Kuraly recalled for line 4
  • Spooner re-signed for $1.3m AAV (I know)
  • Morrow re-signed for $900k AAV
  • Acciari re-signed for $850k AAV
Marchand - Bergeron - Pastrnak
Beleskey - Krejci - Senyshyn
Spooner - Backes - Vatrano
Kuraly - Nash - Acciari
Heinen

Chara - Carlo
Krug - McQuaid
Morrow - K Miller
C Miller

Rask
Khudobin




Basically, they'll have whatever they need to re-sign Pastrnak assuming the cap doesn't implode.
 

PedroSpecialK

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Update based on $75m upper limit and Acciari's signing / UFAs being let go / Miller being taken by VGK (anticipated RFA re-signing figures are in purple):


Sending Hayes to Providence and calling up O'Gara on day 2 makes them cap compliant.

Assumed lineup:

Marchand - Bergeron - Vatrano
Bjork - Krejci - Pastrnak
Beleskey - Spooner - Backes
Kuraly - Nash - Acciari
Schaller / Heinen (representing if one of the kids surprises in camp and forces them to carry 14 FW)

Chara - McAvoy
Krug - Carlo
Miller - McQuaid
O'Gara

Rask
Khudobin
 
Last edited:

Dummy Hoy

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Thanks for the update, was thinking about this the other day.

That's not a bad squad. Although the Backes and Krejci contracts make me cringe. And Beleskey, woof.
 

PedroSpecialK

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Update after the 7/1 Signings. Assumptions:
  • NYR does not buy out Beleskey
  • Reported contract figures are accurate
  • CapFriendly's $774,000 bonus overage for '17-'18 is accurate
Roster breakdown:


Buyouts / retained + overall cap picture ($3.27m in space):


Marchand - Bergeron - Pastrnak
DeBrusk - Krejci - Bjork
Heinen - Kuraly - Backes
Nordström - Wagner - Acciari
Donato

Chara - McAvoy
Krug - Carlo
Moore - Miller
Grzelcyk/McQuaid

Rask
Halák


Needs:

  • Moving one of the defensemen out. Signing Moore at a sub-$3m AAV is good business IMO given the B's are in the driver's seat cap-wise. I'm not adverse to moving Krug if a 30 G winger is coming back.
  • Extend McAvoy
  • Clarity on Backes. Our intrepid reporters haven't had a peep on his condition in two months, and $6m going on LTIR would be a huge deal for the cap picture.
 

TFP

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If NYR buys out Beleskey, that cap hit goes down, right? That retained/buyout salary number is tough to take.
 

PedroSpecialK

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Yeah it goes down to $483,333.33 per year spread out over 4 years if NYR buy him out, $1.416m AAV savings for the Bruins.

I wouldn't be shocked if NYR bought him out and are just pushing the decision to do so as far out as possible, given they have 6 arbitration-eligible RFAs remaining. The deadline to file for arbitration is 7/5, which takes the extended buyout period into August (I think August 4 is the final day for arbitration cases, depending on the number of filings).
 

cshea

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I think the Rangers just ride it out with Beleskey. They are rebuilding and have ~$24 million in cap space at the moment. Hayes, Skjei, Spooner and Vesey and a backup G will take up some/most of that money when they sign, but the Rangers still should have a good chunk of available space. It probably makes more sense for them to run the contract out, especially if they have thoughts of buying Brendan Smith out either now or after the season. They have the financial ability to bury Beleskey back in the minors if they need to clear a roster spot.
 

PedroSpecialK

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Good call above on Beleskey, and an update after the McQuaid trade today.

Assumptions:
  • Kampfer is sent down ($350k AHL contract) and rides it out in Providence
  • Bruins go with 14F, 7D, 2G on the roster
  • One of Studnicka / Frederic make the opening night roster (going with Studnick as Frederic is AHL-eligible)
  • Bjork starts the year in Providence and one of Stempniak / Winnik signs for $650k to be 14F
Lineup

Marchand - Bergeron - Donato
DeBrusk - Krejci - Pastrnak
Heinen - Studnicka - Backes
Nordström - Kuraly - Wagner
Winnik / Acciari

Chara - McAvoy
Moore - Miller
Krug - Carlo
Grzelcyk

Rask
Halak

Cap space: $5.16m with three extra bodies on the roster all year - Gold will do some maneuvering to get them to a place where they can onboard a $10m cap hit by deadline day

 

PedroSpecialK

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Update for opening night, with the following changes

  • Studnicka to Providence
  • Bjork breaking camp with the big club
  • Vaakanainen breaking camp on the big club due to Krug's injury
  • Kampfer breaking camp as #8D
  • Winnik leaving for Switzerland
  • Bakos breaking camp on the big club on IR, with his salary counting against the cap due to the B's not being close enough to limit for LTIR to apply
Cap hit is $76,105,668 right now, with ~$3.4m in cap space. That would prorate to >$10m come deadline day.

 

PedroSpecialK

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In light of deadline day having come and gone, here's the B's aggregate year-end salary cap picture with projected bonuses included

Current Roster:

Cap Picture:

Also a preview for 2019 with some assumed roster moves


Assumed 2019 lineup

Marchand - Bergeron - Heinen
DeBrusk - Krejci - Pastrnak
Nordström - Forsbacka-Karlsson - Coyle
Kuraly - Frederic - Wagner
Studnicka (placeholder)

Chara - McAvoy
Krug - Carlo
Grzelcyk - Miller
Moore

Rask
Halak
 

NYCSox

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Are there cap holds in the NHL? Cause I'm looking at the Leafs with 3.75 million in cap space without Marner and wondering if they have some sort of agreement to have him hold out long enough for the Leafs to put Horton on LTIR.
 

kenneycb

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No cap holds. They can go over by 10% (~$8M) in the off-season but have to be compliant by day 1 of the season. Can get around this a bit by “sending” AHL-eligible guys down on paper transactions, putting Horton on LTIR and “calling” them back up. Requires you to have enough guys with enough money to do so though, so it can be tricky.
 

kenneycb

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Sorry, that’s what I mean. You can do a bunch of paper transactions to get there but you need to be under before you can LTIR someone.
 

cshea

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Cap Friendly has the B’s with $10.1 million in cap space with a 22 man roster at present. It still feels like they need to move bodies to fit in the RFA’s. If we peg Charlie at $8 million, Carlo at $4.5ish?, Heinen at $3.5, that’s $16 million. Maybe my guesses at the cap hits are wrong, but feels like Heinen fits nicely in with the Leafs Kapanen and Johnsson extensions. Carlo on Chychrun, Charlie north of Ekblad.

So, ballpark, that puts them about $6 million over. The 2 roster players that are exempt from waivers are Kuhlman and Clifton. If they get sent down day 1, that’s $1.45 shed bringing them $4.55 over. Burying Backes saves ~$1 million, so now they’re over $3.55 million. I don’t see how they get under that $3.55 to trigger LTIR on Moore and maybe Kevan Miller without a cap clearing trade, or something out of the blue like a Backes retirement. They’d have to waive the guys they just signed (Ritchie, Lindholm, Kampfer) plus Nordstrom and Wagner, which seems unrealistic.
 

Salem's Lot

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If any of the RFAs hold out until after day 1 of the season, can they just put Moore and Miller on LTIR then? With all of the minutes that McAvoy and Carlo played it wouldn’t be the worst thing if they didn’t go to camp.
 

NYCSox

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If any of the RFAs hold out until after day 1 of the season, can they just put Moore and Miller on LTIR then? With all of the minutes that McAvoy and Carlo played it wouldn’t be the worst thing if they didn’t go to camp.
Yeah I had the same question re: Marner and the Leafs. The difference is Horton is season ending LTIR whereas Moore and Miller would not be.
 

PedroSpecialK

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They could certainly do that, but I'm doubtful the value of resting them (especially given their respective ages) exceeds them both being in camp.

The most interesting wrinkle here for me is that McAvoy is waivers-exempt - he was signed at age 19, and has played 3 seasons (including the ELC year being burned in '16-'17 with only playoff games) - players who sign at age 19 require 4 NHL seasons played to require waivers. He has 158 NHL games played - placing him two shy of the 160 that would require waivers.

On the forwards side, Kuhlman will start the year in Providence as a paper move to get the B's as low to the cap as possible, ditto Clifton on D. Other than that, the McAvoy demotion would carry them to $4.23m of space, and should allow Miller / Moore to be LTIR'd with McAvoy coming back up. Adding Clifton / Kuhlman as well gets dicey, but there are a couple of additional possible cap-freeing scenarios:
  • Obviously, the elephant in the room is Backes. He just got his $3m signing bonus on 7/1 and is due $5m over the next two seasons in real money
    • I think Sweeney does everything possible to avoid the NTC discussion with him, but ultimately he should be placed on waivers and sent to Providence as that opens up $1.075m in cap space
    • The alternative of buying out Backes only opens $333,333 in cap space this year, and incurs $3.667m next year (with $666,667 each of the following two seasons to boot)
  • The Rangers still have Pavel Buchnevich and Jacob Trouba as arbitration-eligible RFAs, as the B's have Heinen
    • Because Matt Beleskey's aggregate cap hit exceeds $3,455,438 ($3.8m AAV, with the B's on the hook for a $1.9m retained cap hit), the Rangers will have a 48 hour window that begins 3 days after the final (either) settlement or arbitration award of Buchnevich / Trouba
    • Should the Rangers buy Beleskey out this offseason, the Bruins would save $1,000,000 this year - $900,000 AAV this year, $500,000 AAV for 2020-21

Forwards:


Defense / Goalies:


Summary:

 

cshea

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Also, they’re already down 2 defenseman. Opening camp or the season with 4 of the top 8 from last season not available seems less than ideal.

The Rangers buying out Beleskey would be a huge favor. Seems plausible, in addition to Buchnevich and Trouba they also have Lemieux and Tony DeAngelo to deal with.
 

PedroSpecialK

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Updates for the McAvoy and Carlo signings

Forwards: $45,855,000

Krejci, Bergeron, Pastrnak, Marchand, Backes, Coyle, Heinen, Kuraly, Wagner, Ritchie, Nordström, DeBrusk
Extras: Lindholm, Cehlarik (waiver eligible)
Demoted: Kuhlman, Bjork, Steen

Defensemen + Goalies: $32,200,000
Krug, McAvoy, Carlo, Chara, Grzelcyk, Campfer
Up but to be LTIR'd on day 1: Moore, Miller
Demoted: Clifton, called up after Moore is LTIR'd

Rask, Halak

Miscellaneous charges: $3,066,666.67

Total: $81,121,666.67
Upper Limit: $81,500,000
Cap space: $378,333

Day 1 sees Moore get LTIR'd to get Clifton up, and they're looking at ~2.2m in cap space.
 

PedroSpecialK

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Update after the Coyle and Wagner extensions - the more I look at this, the better I feel about them keeping Krug in the fold as well.

Forwards
Marchand - Bergeron - Pastrnak
DeBrusk - Krejci - Kuhlman
Bjork - Coyle - Heinen
Kuraly - Studnicka - Wagner
Lindholm

Assumptions:
  • Nordström walks as UFA
  • DeBrusk re-signs for $5m AAV medium-long term - otherwise, shorter term $2.8-3.5m deal would make sense
  • Bjork re-signs for $900k AAV
  • Kuhlman re-signs for $750k AAV
  • Backes is bought out ($4m AAV)

Defense
Chara - McAvoy
Krug - Carlo
Grzelcyk - Clifton
Moore - Kampfer

Assumptions:
  • Miller walks as UFA
  • Krug re-signs for $7.5m AAV
  • Grzelcyk re-signs for $3m AAV bridge deal
  • Chara re-signs for another $2m

Goaltenders
Rask
Vladar / league-min backup

Assumptions:
  • Halák walks, cheap backup bright up or called in. Ticketed for $800k AAV
Buyouts
  • Seidenberg (and Beleskey's retained $) come off the books after this year
  • If Backes can't be moved, he is bought out for $4m AAV next year, $1m the year after
Overages
  • Probably some level but not sure. Haven't been banking space due to LTIR

Summary
Forwards $45,860,834
Defense $24,525,000
Goalies $7,800,000

Total Committed AAV $82,185,834
Upper Limit (Estimated) $82,500,000
Overages $300,000
Total Cap Space $14,166

That being said, tons of flexibility - attach a pick to Backes with his limited NTC in effect, move Moore, maybe they don't keep Krug and upgrade 2RW... the world is Don's oyster.

In picture form below

Forwards



Defense & Goalies


Summary
 

PedroSpecialK

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Post-trade deadline update. I like the sum of the moves, as it puts the B's in a great position to retain Krug, but I don't think they break the team salary structure for him - i.e. he'd have to likely take the Krejci $7.25m AAV as a max.

Deadline Summary

In:

Ondrej Kase - $2.6m AAV through 2021-22, RFA at expiry
Nick Ritchie - $1.49m AAV through 2021-22, RFA at expiry
David Backes - $1.5m AAV retained through 2021-22, becomes $1m and $500k over 2021-22 and 2022-23 respectively if bought out by Anaheim

Out:

David Backes - $4.5m AAV
Danton Heinen - $2.8m AAV
Axel Andersson - two-way deal

Total cap savings: $1.71m AAV

2021-22 Roster

Marchand - Bergeron - Pastrnak
DeBrusk - Krejci - Kase
Ritchie - Coyle - Bjork
Kuraly - Studnicka - Wagner
Lindholm / Kuhlman

Chara - McAvoy
Krug - Carlo
Grzelcyk - Lauzon
Moore / Clifton

Rask
Vladar

Assumptions

UFAs
  • Nordström - walks
  • Krug - $7.25m AAV long-term
  • Chara - $2m AAV with easily attained bonuses as per usual
  • Halák - walks, Vladar called up or league min goalie signed
RFAs
  • Bjork - $900k one-way deal
  • DeBrusk - $4.5m AAV bridge deal
  • Kuhlman - $800k one-way deal
  • Grzelcyk - $2.5m AAV (bridge or arb-awarded)
Also assuming ~$1m in cap overages from ELC and 35+ bonuses.

Cap Breakdown

Forwards

28630

Defense / Goaltending

28631

Summary

28632