The Michael McCorkle "Mac" Jones Thread

[Justthetippett]

Given the contractual timelines, next year Mac will need to show, starting in the preseason, that:

1. He’s better than Zappe or whomever else joins the team (I am secretly hoping they draft Richardson from UF as a developmental guy);

2. He’s above average to the point where paying him $30 million isn’t a detriment to overall team building; and

3. He’s capable of further improvement.

That has to happen regardless of the coaching staff, OL, etc. Although those variables obviously give him a better chance of success.

 

[Shelterdog]

Given the contractual timelines, next year Mac will need to show, starting in the preseason, that:

1. He’s better than Zappe or whomever else joins the team (I am secretly hoping they draft Richardson from UF as a developmental guy);

2. He’s above average to the point where paying him $30 million isn’t a detriment to overall team building; and

3. He’s capable of further improvement.

That has to happen regardless of the coaching staff, OL, etc. Although those variables obviously give him a better chance of success.

The problem with number 2 is we're on lake wobegone; every QB is treated like an above average player worth 30 million a year. The Mac of last year (and the Mac we've had the last couple of weeks) is a player who gets paid 30 million by virtually every team in the league if he's their starter.

 

[DJnVa]

So if they draft an OT with their first pick instead of the next stud WR, people here will be just fine with that, right? I just want to prepare myself for everyone's reaction at the end of April.

Well, if we take your post at face value, I would rather have the STUD WR. NFL STUD.

If there is a stud potential guy available where they pick, take him, then take all OL the rest of the way. And maybe a punter.

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

Given the contractual timelines, next year Mac will need to show, starting in the preseason, that:

1. He’s better than Zappe or whomever else joins the team (I am secretly hoping they draft Richardson from UF as a developmental guy);

2. He’s above average to the point where paying him $30 million isn’t a detriment to overall team building; and

3. He’s capable of further improvement.

That has to happen regardless of the coaching staff, OL, etc. Although those variables obviously give him a better chance of success.

Can't he be average and they offer a lot less than $30mm? Who is going to pay him much of anything unless he drastically improves?

 

[Super Nomario]

Cross-posting from the game ball thread

Last year he had a good (not great, but good, especially for a rookie) statistical season and the team won 10 games. He showed promise. Then the team got another good receiver (two since I'm counting Thornton and Parker) and elevated Rhamondre to the starting RB slot (I like Damien Harris, but Rhamondre is better). There was no reason why Mac wouldn't be at least as good as last year.

But what changed was the offensive coaching, and one person in particular: Matt Patricia. No offensive experience, in charge of both play calling AND the offensive line. And what have been the two biggest, most glaring, problems this team has had this year? Bad, inefficient play calling and disastrous offensive line play. The two biggest issues are the responsibility of the same guy - Patricia.

Re: the bolded, player performance is a lot more inconsistent than we generally think. To name two recent examples of great Patriots, Devin McCourty and Joe Thuney both had down second seasons after excellent rookie campaigns. Jake Bailey was the best punter in football two years ago; last year he was average and this year he was terrible.

The larger issue with this logic is that it becomes a closed loop. Mac should be at least as good, he's not, so it has to because of reason X, and anything that happens is because of reason X and not because Mac isn't as good. If you start with the premise that Mac should be at least as good, it becomes harder to blame him for not being as good or recognize when he's having a down year.

(I find myself defending Patricia a lot, not because he should be in his position or because he's good, but because he's become IMO a lazy narrative for what is undoubtedly an issue with many factors: worse health, worse OL depth, wholesale coaching changes, and worse play from established players, including Mac)

171-264 (64.8%), 1,760 yds, 6.8 y/a, 8 td, 1 int, 92.4 rating

It's important to note: 1 of these stats (the INT rate) is good. The rest are all below average, mostly in the 22nd range in terms of QB ranks, except passer rating, which (buoyed by the INT rate, which is 1/4 of the formula) is just about average. And I wouldn't give a damn about the numbers if the offense was effective, but it's not.

 

[DJnVa]

I've been saying all season that I don't think we can get a great read on Mac until he has a legitimate OC and QB coach again, along with an improved OL. But I'm not sure I can get onboard yet with the notion that he's clearly a league average QB. Jury is still out on that, IMHO.

I guess the question is--what do folks think an average QB is?

Here's what it is so far:
AVG: 344/533 64.5%, 3510 yards, 22/12 TD/INT, 87.7 rating
MAC (pro-rated to 17 games): 343/526 65.2%, 3600 yards, 14/10 TD/INT, 85.8 rating
MAC (last 8 games prorated): 363/561 64.7%, 3740 yards, 17/2 TD/INT, 92.4 rating

His full-season numbers are hovering slightly below league average. His last 8 games are slightly above league average.

You know what he is? He's a young, inconsistent QB, with what seems to be a shoddy OL, generally meh WRs (at least in their current roles) and suspect coaching. Why wouldn't we expect improvement with some of those things are fixed, or at least, improved?

 

[Cellar-Door]

The problem with number 2 is we're on lake wobegone; every QB is treated like an above average player worth 30 million a year. The Mac of last year (and the Mac we've had the last couple of weeks) is a player who gets paid 30 million by virtually every team in the league if he's their starter.

Not really? Someone would maybe pay $30M for him, but a lot of teams just let someone else do it and draft another guy, maybe sign a cheap vet to compete (see MIA w/ Tannehill, ATL w/ Ryan, etc.)

There are only 13 QBs in the league with an AAV $30M or up, and all of them (yes even Goff) have a better track record of success than Mac. And of those 13, probably 3 are guys their teams are actively trying to get off of (Carr, Wentz, Ryan).

Mac's year last year was impressive for a rookie, but I don't think it generally was $30M a year quality. The guys who got new contracts after last year who were most similar to Mac are:
1. Jimmy G who was clearly better, he took a 1 year $7M deal to be a backup/camp competition, that could rise to $11M if he started every game, and met every incentive.
2. Teddy Bridgewater- signed a 1 year deal to be a backup $6.5M guaranteed, $10M possible payout

Now, if Mac magically became a FA at the end of this year, he'd get more than that, he's young, less than 2 seasons in, so upside is there. But if he gets to year 5 or 6 and he looks like he did his rookie year? Yeah, that's a backup or camp competition type resume.


Edit- and if we're noting $30M is arbitrary, only 15 QBs have an AAV over $20M, only 17 over $10M (that includes Baker Mayfield's 5th year option pickup).

 

[8slim]

I guess the question is--what do folks think an average QB is?

Here's what it is so far:
AVG: 344/533 64.5%, 3510 yards, 22/12 TD/INT, 87.7 rating
MAC (pro-rated to 17 games): 343/526 65.2%, 3600 yards, 14/10 TD/INT, 85.8 rating
MAC (last 8 games prorated): 363/561 64.7%, 3740 yards, 17/2 TD/INT, 92.4 rating

It's a fair question, and I don't know if I can answer it. Particularly using those basic stats, since I'm in the camp that believes things like completion % and gross yardage really don't tell you much about QB performance anymore in the current NFL, other than at the extreme ends.

*edit* just to clarify my point about those stats... I just looked up the league leaders for completion %. Jacoby Brissett is ranked 22nd at 64.0%. He has 236 completions. If he had 248 completions -- just one more in each of the 12 games he started -- his completion rate goes up to 67%, which would land him at 10th in the league. One dropped pass a game, and he goes from below average to well above it.

 

[DJnVa]

It's a fair question, and I don't know if I can answer it. Particularly using those basic stats, since I'm in the camp that believes things like completion % and gross yardage really don't tell you much about QB performance anymore in the current NFL, other than at the extreme ends.

Absolutely. But when folks post that Mac is top 5 in the NFL in "big time throws" some folks scoff at it. It just seems people have their opinion baked in and nothing will change it.

 

[8slim]

Absolutely. But when folks post that Mac is top 5 in the NFL in "big time throws" some folks scoff at it. It just seems people have their opinion baked in and nothing will change it.

Totally agree about calcified opinion. That's why I said I think the jury is out. This year has been a waste in evaluating him, in my opinion, because of the OC and QB coach situation.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Among 31 qualified QB, Mac ranks 25th on rating, 29th on QBR. The guys he has a better rating than are guys who have lost their job or should have (Fields, Ryan, Wilson, Mayfield, Wentz, Mills, Pickett, Wilson). He’s in the range of Murray, Carr, Stafford, Mariota. He ranks 28th in TD.

The median is Lamar Jackson- 91.1 rating. Mac is 85.8.

Obviously there are other stats but I think he’s been well below average this season.

 

[leftfieldlegacy]

So if they draft an OT with their first pick instead of the next stud WR, people here will be just fine with that, right? I just want to prepare myself for everyone's reaction at the end of April.

In years past I would want the OT, but the college game is changing rapidly to the point where the top wide receivers not only start as NFL rookies but dominate their position. IMO there are fewer true #1 WR than stud OL so I want the WR asap. I'd also speculate that with the extra years of eligibility from Covid and graduate transfers that there will be a larger number of 5th, 6th even 7th year seniors entering the draft in 2023. That could mean more high quality OL available deeper in the draft. Better to draft a stud WR early and a very good OL later than the other way around.

 

[Justthetippett]

Can't he be average and they offer a lot less than $30mm? Who is going to pay him much of anything unless he drastically improves?

His fifth year option will be $30 million, so unless he’s willing to sign an extension for less, that’s a non-negotiable number. After 2026, I suppose a lower number is possible, but if he’s below average I think you go back to the draft and start over rather than pay him real money ($20 million or whatever).

 

[Cellar-Door]

Absolutely. But when folks post that Mac is top 5 in the NFL in "big time throws" some folks scoff at it. It just seems people have their opinion baked in and nothing will change it.

In that one case I think it's more because "big-time throws" is something that has always been mocked because it's something PFF made up that has no real meaning. In much the way Turnover-worthy throws is viewed with skepticism, since it isn't consistent from reviewer to reviewer, and we've seen tape of terrible picks that were deemed "not turnoverworthy" by PFF for dumb reasons.

There is always going to be some interpretation of stats to fit pre-existing biases, but good or bad, I think the PFF stuff that is basically "vibes" based is gonna be mocked.

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

His fifth year option will be $30 million, so unless he’s willing to sign an extension for less, that’s a non-negotiable number. After 2026, I suppose a lower number is possible, but if he’s below average I think you go back to the draft and start over rather than pay him real money ($20 million or whatever).

Yikes, didn't realize that. Well my uninformed opinion is there is less than a 10 percent chance that he shows enough next year to be worth $30mm.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Yikes, didn't realize that. Well my uninformed opinion is there is less than a 10 percent chance that he shows enough next year to be worth $30mm.

Might actually be in the 20s, hard to project yet. If he had been in the 2020 class it would have been $22.8M. I think people are using the pro-bowl number to get the close to $30M estimate, but Mac's doesn't count, since he was an alternate, and the boost is only for original.

 

[Super Nomario]

$30 MM is also not what it used to be. There are 9 QBs averaging $40 MM and 13 averaging $30 MM. Only two established vets had an AAV lower: Tannehill at $27 MM and Brady at $25 MM.

 

[Strike4]

$30 MM is also not what it used to be. There are 9 QBs averaging $40 MM and 13 averaging $30 MM. Only two established vets had an AAV lower: Tannehill at $27 MM and Brady at $25 MM.

Yeah and by all accounts the Patriots are all in on Mac so barring some unforeseen horribleness starting in training camp, he's going to be here for awhile. I don't think anybody considers Zappe a viable alternative, either.

 

[Saints Rest]

His fifth year option will be $30 million, so unless he’s willing to sign an extension for less, that’s a non-negotiable number. After 2026, I suppose a lower number is possible, but if he’s below average I think you go back to the draft and start over rather than pay him real money ($20 million or whatever).

I think what the Giants do with Daniel Jones this year may prove informative to what the Pats might be looking at in a couple years with their own QB Jones.

How many times have we looked at other young, struggling, QB'S and said "he hasn't really had a chance; he has limited playmakers, his O-Line is for shit, and he's had to change coordinators every year." Sounds a lot like our own Mr. Jones.

 

[Shelterdog]

Not really? Someone would maybe pay $30M for him, but a lot of teams just let someone else do it and draft another guy, maybe sign a cheap vet to compete (see MIA w/ Tannehill, ATL w/ Ryan, etc.)

There are only 13 QBs in the league with an AAV $30M or up, and all of them (yes even Goff) have a better track record of success than Mac. And of those 13, probably 3 are guys their teams are actively trying to get off of (Carr, Wentz, Ryan).

Mac's year last year was impressive for a rookie, but I don't think it generally was $30M a year quality. The guys who got new contracts after last year who were most similar to Mac are:
1. Jimmy G who was clearly better, he took a 1 year $7M deal to be a backup/camp competition, that could rise to $11M if he started every game, and met every incentive.
2. Teddy Bridgewater- signed a 1 year deal to be a backup $6.5M guaranteed, $10M possible payout

Now, if Mac magically became a FA at the end of this year, he'd get more than that, he's young, less than 2 seasons in, so upside is there. But if he gets to year 5 or 6 and he looks like he did his rookie year? Yeah, that's a backup or camp competition type resume.


Edit- and if we're noting $30M is arbitrary, only 15 QBs have an AAV over $20M, only 17 over $10M (that includes Baker Mayfield's 5th year option pickup).

I think you're begging the question here; I think you're suggesting that a contract extension for Mac cost less than the market price of an established starter because you think he's not worth that contract; that's not really how it works. The cost of an established starting QB is 30-50 million; the only established veteran starts under 30 are Brady (whose actual AAV is perhaps 40 since he got that much this year and would renegotiate next year) and Tannenhill at 29.5. If you are an established starting QB the market is 30-50. Now I think your point is Mac sucks so he's not worth that, and I get it, but that basically means you don't re-sign him, not that you can sign him to a long term deal with an AAV somewhere south of 30.

The comparisons you make are irrelevant because those two weren't established young starters.

If BB thinks that Mac Jones after next year is now more promising than a 30 year old Bridgewater was than I'd agree of if Mac was playing like this in year 5 or 6 I migth agree, but he's not.

 

[Cellar-Door]

$30 MM is also not what it used to be. There are 9 QBs averaging $40 MM and 13 averaging $30 MM. Only two established vets had an AAV lower: Tannehill at $27 MM and Brady at $25 MM.

Sure... But that is the point, unless you are good you can don't get that deal, you get relegated to Jameis, Teddy B, etc status. Mac Jones thus far is much closer to those guys than the 30M plus. I you get the big deal by showing top of the league production pot or a deep postseason run. Next year is make or break for Mac

 

[Cellar-Door]

I think you're begging the question here. The cost of an established starting QB is 30-50 million; the only established veteran starts under 30 are Brady (whose actual AAV is perhaps 40 since he got that much this year and would renegotiate next year) and Tannenhill at 29.5. If you have an established starting QB the market is 30-50. Now I think your point is Mac sucks so he's not worth that, and I get it, but that basically means you don't re-sign him, not that you can sign him to a long term deal with an AAV somewhere south of 30.

See I think the point you miss is that you have put him in the "established starting QB veteran" category, without much evidence that he is one. Is Mac any more established starting QB than Jameis was after starting his whole career, or Jimmy G, or Baker (who got cut) or even the Daniel Jones' of the world. Going back a year or two, what about Mariota.

I get the idea that accomplished veteran starters make $25M plus easily, I'm pointing out that Mac isn't one yet, and that the guys who don't either have top seasons or deep playoff runs don't get into that category. My point is more... yes 15 or so guys get that money... but all the rest don't, and we won't know until after next year if Mac looks like he'll join the 15 or not.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

DP

 

[FL4WL3SS]

NVM covered above

 

[Shelterdog]

See I think the point you miss is that you have put him in the "established starting QB veteran" category, without much evidence that he is one. Is Mac any more established starting QB than Jameis was after starting his whole career, or Jimmy G, or Baker (who got cut) or even the Daniel Jones' of the world. Going back a year or two, what about Mariota.

I get the idea that accomplished veteran starters make $25M plus easily, I'm pointing out that Mac isn't one yet, and that the guys who don't either have top seasons or deep playoff runs don't get into that category. My point is more... yes 15 or so guys get that money... but all the rest don't, and we won't know until after next year if Mac looks like he'll join the 15 or not.

And my point isn't that Mac isn't guaranteed to be worth 30 million or command that much in the open market, it's that if you are trying to re-sign him to a long term deal as three, four or five year starter (and as I initially said one who plays at the level as he did as a rookie) then at that point he will command the contract of an established vet and cost 30 million plus AAV. Perhaps slightly less if he decides it's smart to take Brady type contracts and leave a little on the table to be on slightly more balanced teams.

I get that folks think he's terrible, which makes the decision to re-sign him pretty easy because there isn't going to be a "pay him 8 million a year" option.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Yup. It’s all OL for me. We all whine about Mac, and I’m guilty there as well, but the OL has been putrid for basically the entirety of the season, including camp. I have no idea how to fix it but they simply have to. Nothing else matters. The secondary appears to be in pretty good shape going forward. Front 7 could use a little more but I’m excited by the development of Uche. Could probably use another impact LB or two as well.

At WR, I hope they bring Meyers back and Thornton continues his development. It’s a thin WR market so I’m concerned about losing Meyers this offseason.

I honestly think there is zero chance Meyers is back. He had 83 catches last year for 866 yards, for 50.1ypg. This year, he's on a 17 game pace of 83 catches for 1,008 yards (with 5td's this year).

Last season, Christian Kirk 77 catches for 982 yards and 5tds.

Christian Kirk after that season signed a contract for 4yrs/72 million, and 37mil guaranteed.

I want nothing to do with Meyers at those numbers, and I can't imagine BB would be willing to give it, but there are teams out there that certainly will. BB was behind the league in recognizing the value of a true #1, has been for years. Teams are out there trading for AJ Brown and Tyreek Hill, while BB has been throwing mediocre money at mediocre talent like Parker and Agholor.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I honestly think there is zero chance Meyers is back. He had 83 catches last year for 866 yards, for 50.1ypg. This year, he's on a 17 game pace of 83 catches for 1,008 yards (with 5td's this year).

Last season, Christian Kirk 77 catches for 982 yards and 5tds.

Christian Kirk after that season signed a contract for 4yrs/72 million, and 37mil guaranteed.

I want nothing to do with Meyers at those numbers, and I can't imagine BB would be willing to give it, but there are teams out there that certainly will. BB was behind the league in recognizing the value of a true #1, has been for years. Teams are out there trading for AJ Brown and Tyreek Hill, while BB has been throwing mediocre money at mediocre talent like Parker and Agholor.

I think you’re probably right about Meyers. He’s in a great spot here. Juju is probably the top guy but Meyers is well-positioned to be next up right behind him. Belichick will probably save his FA $ for other positions.

 

[Cellar-Door]

And my point isn't that Mac isn't guaranteed to be worth 30 million or command that much in the open market, it's that if you are trying to re-sign him to a long term deal as three, four or five year starter (and as I initially said one who plays at the level as he did as a rookie) then at that point he will command the contract of an established vet and cost 30 million plus AAV. Perhaps slightly less if he decides it's smart to take Brady type contracts and leave a little on the table to be on slightly more balanced teams.

I get that folks think he's terrible, which makes the decision to re-sign him pretty easy because there isn't going to be a "pay him 8 million a year" option.

Yeah, I understand that, my point was that guys who put up numbers like he did his rookie year did not get paid like estabished vets (2 guys who did the year he did that got 6-7M guaranteed with incentives up into the 11-12 range), they got paid like camp competition or placeholders. If Mac puts up his rookie year type numbers next year we likely won't pick up his 5th year option and if he puts up those same numbers in his 4th year he'll likely get somewhere in the Jimmy G to Jameis range of maybe he can start for us, but low guarantees, with incentives and a rookie as competition.

 

[DJnVa]

In that one case I think it's more because "big-time throws" is something that has always been mocked because it's something PFF made up that has no real meaning. In much the way Turnover-worthy throws is viewed with skepticism, since it isn't consistent from reviewer to reviewer, and we've seen tape of terrible picks that were deemed "not turnoverworthy" by PFF for dumb reasons.

There is always going to be some interpretation of stats to fit pre-existing biases, but good or bad, I think the PFF stuff that is basically "vibes" based is gonna be mocked.

Sure. But what I'm asking for is *something* other than vibes on the other side of it. It's a lot of what Mac looks like. And his body language.

I want the best QB for my team, that doesn't have to be Mac Jones. But I want to see something other than game thread analysis to get me there.

 

[Shelterdog]

Yeah, I understand that, my point was that guys who put up numbers like he did his rookie year did not get paid like estabished vets (2 guys who did the year he did that got 6-7M guaranteed with incentives up into the 11-12 range), they got paid like camp competition or placeholders. If Mac puts up his rookie year type numbers next year we likely won't pick up his 5th year option and if he puts up those same numbers in his 4th year he'll likely get somewhere in the Jimmy G to Jameis range of maybe he can start for us, but low guarantees, with incentives and a rookie as competition.

We'll need to agree to disagree on this I guess--I think his rookie year performance is a heck of a lot better than you think it was and that if he puts up a couple years of that level then he'll get re-signed, just like a Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill in Miami, Carr, or going back a put Andy Dalton was.

 

[Super Nomario]

Sure. But what I'm asking for is *something* other than vibes on the other side of it. It's a lot of what Mac looks like. And his body language.

I want the best QB for my team, that doesn't have to be Mac Jones. But I want to see something other than game thread analysis to get me there.

Most of the stats have Mac as a below-average starter. He's 23rd in ANY/A, for instance, which is my favorite quick-and-dirty QB stat. Most of the other stats are similar, whether you go by old school stats like Y/A or passer rating or new stuff like EPA. His numbers are those of a fringe bottom 10 QB this year.

 

[Jimbodandy]

This seems like Chad Finn making shit up, unless his definition of audible is literally "call whatever he wants" because we have seen him check into another play many many times all season.

Word. Nobody alerts to a HB Dive better than Mac. He's world class at that.

He audibles a few times every game...almost always into that 1 yard dive. Anyone watching has seen this.

 

[Cellar-Door]

We'll need to agree to disagree on this I guess--I think his rookie year performance is a heck of a lot better than you think it was and that if he puts up a couple years of that level then he'll get re-signed, just like a Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill in Miami, Carr, or going back a put Andy Dalton was.

I guess. I think it's a good rookie year, I'm just looking at the other QBs that season and I don't see the ones around Mac getting big new deals. Even Cousins, he got his big deal after multiple years of his team not being willing to go more than a year with him, I also wonder how much you can put into what happened 7+ years ago, the QB dynamic has changed, top guys are getting more, and the mid-level less, and the top guys get big guarantees, while teams are moving on from draftees much faster. I think there is a good chance they pick up the option... I think the chances Mac gets a big 2nd deal is much more up in the air without exceeding last year's performance.

 

[StupendousMan]

Word. Nobody alerts to a HB Dive better than Mac. He's world class at that.

He audibles a few times every game...almost always into that 1 yard dive. Anyone watching has seen this.

I had noticed the same thing: the play into which Mac audibles is almost always a run up the gut. I don't know how often it works better than the original play would have, of course, but my memory, such as it is, thinks that it doesn't work very often.

 

[Jinhocho]

And my point isn't that Mac isn't guaranteed to be worth 30 million or command that much in the open market, it's that if you are trying to re-sign him to a long term deal as three, four or five year starter (and as I initially said one who plays at the level as he did as a rookie) then at that point he will command the contract of an established vet and cost 30 million plus AAV. Perhaps slightly less if he decides it's smart to take Brady type contracts and leave a little on the table to be on slightly more balanced teams.

I get that folks think he's terrible, which makes the decision to re-sign him pretty easy because there isn't going to be a "pay him 8 million a year" option.

I am not sure he is terrible. He wasnt great the end of last year and showed real limits even when he was better and he has not been good at all this year. It really raises the stakes for him and the team about what next year looks like.

 

[rodderick]

Bill Belichick wasn't willing to give Brady 3/75 after winning the Super Bowl in 2018, he isn't paying Mac Jones 30 million dollars unless he makes a huge jump. Yes, I'm aware Brady's age played a huge part in this decision, but I don't think Bill will just give out that kind of contract for alright QB play just because it's what the market pays these days.

 

[Reverend]

Is Portnoy undercover on SoSH

View: https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1609688564564127744?s=46&t=WAoowj8wQ0ZGNscXNkFddQ

whaddya mean “undercover”?

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Among 31 qualified QB, Mac ranks 25th on rating, 29th on QBR. The guys he has a better rating than are guys who have lost their job or should have (Fields, Ryan, Wilson, Mayfield, Wentz, Mills, Pickett, Wilson). He’s in the range of Murray, Carr, Stafford, Mariota. He ranks 28th in TD.

The median is Lamar Jackson- 91.1 rating. Mac is 85.8.

Obviously there are other stats but I think he’s been well below average this season.

Most of the stats have Mac as a below-average starter. He's 23rd in ANY/A, for instance, which is my favorite quick-and-dirty QB stat. Most of the other stats are similar, whether you go by old school stats like Y/A or passer rating or new stuff like EPA. His numbers are those of a fringe bottom 10 QB this year.

I agree the ratings are what they are. But I'm not sure what is learned from looking at them devoid of context.

Would Mac's rating be better if he had a better OL? A star WR? A better coached offense? Obviously it would. How much better? I don't know, and neither do any of the rest of us. QB rating ain't batting average.

Here is what Bedard had to say about Mac:

Live, I wasn't so hot on Mac Jones, but I thought he was better on film because, as usual, you can see the continued flaws in the Patriots' passing games — mostly the route timing and spacing that continue to plague it. It was far from perfect. Jones threw behind Jakobi Meyers, way overthrew Nelson Agholor (on third down), threw incomplete to Tyquan Thornton when Meyers was WIDE open for a big gain, and threw behind Thornton in the end zone on the bobble. But Jones also made some really nice, big-time throws (seven by our count). ... We didn't put any of the QB pressures on Jones, and he was actually really let down by Rhamondre Stevenson (whiffed on two blitz pickups) and Conor McDermott in this regard. ... Most of the indecision you see in the pocket continues to be because the receivers are not ready for the ball when Jones wants to throw against that coverage — and he's usually right. We had seven poor routes in this game.

I don't know enough to comment on whether the bolded is right or not, but it's an obvious problem for any QB.

 

[rodderick]

I agree the ratings are what they are. But I'm not sure what is learned from looking at them devoid of context.

Would Mac's rating be better if he had a better OL? A star WR? A better coached offense? Obviously it would. How much better? I don't know, and neither do any of the rest of us. QB rating ain't batting average.

Here is what Bedard had to say about Mac:

I don't know enough to comment on whether the bolded is right or not, but it's an obvious problem for any QB.

I think the issue with Mac is that's very easy for us to look at the seasons Brady or Rodgers are having and say "oh, the playcalling/OL/running game/receivers are hurting them" because we've seen those guys produce at an elite level, and even then there's been plenty of criticism of their play. With Mac, there's really no baseline other than his really solid rookie season we all thought he'd need to take the next step from. What I'll agree with especially Evan Lazar on is that the offense's struggles don't really have anything to do with Mac's physical tools. He has enough arm strength and the accuracy to make big throws, he just lacks the consistency to give you the easy stuff that keeps the chains moving. Of course, those are the plays most impacted by poor coaching and talent at receiver, so who knows. I just think next year the mitigating factors are pretty much off the board, if he plays well, he plays well, if he doesn't the Pats should move on.

 

[Super Nomario]

I agree the ratings are what they are. But I'm not sure what is learned from looking at them devoid of context.

Would Mac's rating be better if he had a better OL? A star WR? A better coached offense? Obviously it would. How much better? I don't know, and neither do any of the rest of us. QB rating ain't batting average.

Here is what Bedard had to say about Mac:

I don't know enough to comment on whether the bolded is right or not, but it's an obvious problem for any QB.

I don't disagree with any of this, my comment was in response to @DJnVa arguing that Mac's numbers were basically average. The numbers are objectively not good. The extent to which we blame Mac for that is an open question.

 

[lars10]

I think the issue with Mac is that's very easy for us to look at the seasons Brady or Rodgers are having and say "oh, the playcalling/OL/running game/receivers are hurting them" because we've seen those guys produce at an elite level, and even then there's been plenty of criticism of their play. With Mac, there's really no baseline other than his really solid rookie season we all thought he'd need to take the next step from. What I'll agree with especially Evan Lazar on is that the offense's struggles don't really have anything to do with Mac's physical tools. He has enough arm strength and the accuracy to make big throws, he just lacks the consistency to give you the easy stuff that keeps the chains moving. Of course, those are the plays most impacted by poor coaching and talent at receiver, so who knows. I just think next year the mitigating factors are pretty much off the board, if he plays well, he plays well, if he doesn't the Pats should move on.

Mac doesn’t have a really good pass catching RB like White, a really good slot receiver like Edelman or an all everything TE like Gronk.. which Brady had for a lot of his years here and I think also help with short play calls/quick throws. Seems like this year there have been a lot of long developing plays or rout trees.. where Mac has to wait for his receiver to not only get open, but actually look for the ball to come out.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Mac doesn’t have a really good pass catching RB like White, a really good slot receiver like Edelman or an all everything TE like Gronk.. which Brady had for a lot of his years here and I think also help with short play calls/quick throws. Seems like this year there have been a lot of long developing plays or rout trees.. where Mac has to wait for his receiver to not only get open, but actually look for the ball to come out.

I've pointed this out more times than I can count, but this is correct. The problem with not having guys like that ison say, third and 5, defenses are able to use press man coverage, and we don't have the type of receivers that can get open regularly off the LOS in press in 1-2 seconds. And the offensive line can't hold blocks for longer than 2-3 seconds, so by the time they come open, Mac is already on his back foot, or moving around (which is obviously not his strong suit). In addition, defenses are getting pressure with 4 man pass rushes, leaving not only the DB's in press coverage, but usually 2 safeties/nickel/dime backs, etc. over the top.

I think this is why we're seeing so many long throws in these situations. Mac (and probably Patricia, but who the hell knows) realizes he doesn't have time to wait for guys to get open just passed the sticks, he can't dump off behind the sticks because our receivers make almost nobody miss, so he has to take the 1on1 shot down the field with a quick throw and air under it.

These same problems they have on third down, are the same problems they have when the field shrinks in the red zone. I mean, even Mac's 2 red zone touchdowns last week weren't exactly great plays. On the first, the Pats could easily have been called for an illegal pick, but it sprung the receiver open, and on the second, Mac and Jakobi took advantage of the defense not being prepared, and Mac lofted it over a DB whose back was turned.

 

[8slim]

Here is what Bedard had to say about Mac:

Mac doesn’t have a really good pass catching RB like White, a really good slot receiver like Edelman or an all everything TE like Gronk.. which Brady had for a lot of his years here and I think also help with short play calls/quick throws. Seems like this year there have been a lot of long developing plays or rout trees.. where Mac has to wait for his receiver to not only get open, but actually look for the ball to come out.

People rip on Bedard, for obvious reasons, but I give him $35/year for a BSJ subscription largely because of the excellent job he does in breaking down game film (and McAdam's Sox coverage). I trust his analysis here.

And I agree with @lars10 about Mac's weapons, or lack thereof. We've discussed the lack of a true #1 WR, but he'd also likely be better if Montgomery hadn't missed most of the season, or if Henry/Jonnu could be a more consistent possession receiving TE.

Like I keep saying, I don't know if Mac is a long-term solution. But I don't think 2022 has told us much about that. The current state of the O around him, aside from Stevenson, is pretty woeful.

 

[Marbleheader]

Just to show how difficult it is to predict quarterback play, and how wrong people were preseason, Sporting News preseason QB rankings:

1.Allen
2. Mahomes
3. Rodgers
4. Brady
5. Herbert
6. Burrow
7. Prescott
8. Russell Wilson
9. Lamar
10. Stafford
11. Watson
12. Carr
13. Murray
14. Cousins
15. Hurts
16. Lance
17. Ryan
18. Winston
19. Tannehill
20. Mac
21. Wentz
22. Tua
23. Fields
24. Zach Wilson
25. Lawrence
26. Mayfield
27. Goff
28. Trubisky
29. Mariota
30. Daniel Jones


https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-quarterback-rankings-2022-qbs-best-worst/su5vrdsuvm0dnr2aaaxsudiz

A lot can change in a year, I wouldn't write off Mac just yet.

 

[Saints Rest]

Just to show how difficult it is to predict quarterback play, and how wrong people were preseason, Sporting News preseason QB rankings:

1.Allen
2. Mahomes
3. Rodgers
4. Brady
5. Herbert
6. Burrow
7. Prescott
8. Russell Wilson
9. Lamar
10. Stafford
11. Watson
12. Carr
13. Murray
14. Cousins
15. Hurts
16. Lance
17. Ryan
18. Winston
19. Tannehill
20. Mac
21. Wentz
22. Tua
23. Fields
24. Zach Wilson
25. Lawrence
26. Mayfield
27. Goff
28. Trubisky
29. Mariota
30. Daniel Jones


https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-quarterback-rankings-2022-qbs-best-worst/su5vrdsuvm0dnr2aaaxsudiz

A lot can change in a year, I wouldn't write off Mac just yet.

Hmmm.

Biggest fallers (IMO):

1. Z Wilson
2. R Wilson
3. Ryan
4. Tannehill
5. Mayfield
   

Biggest climbers (IMO):

1. Geno Wilson
2. Hurts
3. Goff
4. Fields
5. Tua

 

[johnmd20]

Hmmm.

Biggest fallers (IMO):

1. Z Wilson
2. R Wilson
3. Ryan
4. Tannehill
5. Mayfield

Biggest climbers (IMO):

1. Geno Wilson
2. Hurts
3. Goff
4. Fields
5. Tua

Russell Wilson is the biggest faller of that group, IMHO. He is nearly unusable right now. He was in the top 10.

And I'm not sure Mayfield was a faller. At the bottom, still near the bottom. Hurts is the biggest climber. He's the MVP of the NFL.

Geno Wilson is funny.

 

[lars10]

People rip on Bedard, for obvious reasons, but I give him $35/year for a BSJ subscription largely because of the excellent job he does in breaking down game film (and McAdam's Sox coverage). I trust his analysis here.

And I agree with @lars10 about Mac's weapons, or lack thereof. We've discussed the lack of a true #1 WR, but he'd also likely be better if Montgomery hadn't missed most of the season, or if Henry/Jonnu could be a more consistent possession receiving TE.

Like I keep saying, I don't know if Mac is a long-term solution. But I don't think 2022 has told us much about that. The current state of the O around him, aside from Stevenson, is pretty woeful.

Agree with what you're saying.. (beyond where you were agreeing with me already).

When people in the gamethreads talk about Jones' happy feet I think of Brady whenever he's gotten rushed up the middle. Jones obviously doesn't have anywhere close to the same pocket presence, but it's just to say that even the best QBs don't fare well when they are rushed up the middle.. and especially when they don't have a quick dump off.

I think Mac is generally what we think he is, but he also hasn't been given a lot to help him improve from last year. I think if you give him a decent, pass-catching RB and a true #1WR and possibly a slot receiver, you'd see a lot of improvement. This year has been full of major injuries across the entire offense.. RBs have been out, TEs, WRs, OL etc.. as well as his own injury. I don't know how many games the #1 offense has played all together, but it can't be all that many games. Just having Damian Harris out for most of the season has probably put a strain on the offense in a way. His receivers change every week... and beyond that some receivers don't seem to be getting field time even when they perform. Trying to build any kind of consistency from week to week has been impossible.

He's probably not the guy.. but it's hard to argue that he's been playing with the same kind of talent around him as most/all of the QBs in front of him. What's fairly amazing is that they've been in almost every game.. losing 4 games by two scores.

 

[8slim]

Agree with what you're saying.. (beyond where you were agreeing with me already).

When people in the gamethreads talk about Jones' happy feet I think of Brady whenever he's gotten rushed up the middle. Jones obviously doesn't have anywhere close to the same pocket presence, but it's just to say that even the best QBs don't fare well when they are rushed up the middle.. and especially when they don't have a quick dump off.

I think Mac is generally what we think he is, but he also hasn't been given a lot to help him improve from last year. I think if you give him a decent, pass-catching RB and a true #1WR and possibly a slot receiver, you'd see a lot of improvement. This year has been full of major injuries across the entire offense.. RBs have been out, TEs, WRs, OL etc.. as well as his own injury. I don't know how many games the #1 offense has played all together, but it can't be all that many games. Just having Damian Harris out for most of the season has probably put a strain on the offense in a way. His receivers change every week... and beyond that some receivers don't seem to be getting field time even when they perform. Trying to build any kind of consistency from week to week has been impossible.

He's probably not the guy.. but it's hard to argue that he's been playing with the same kind of talent around him as most/all of the QBs in front of him. What's fairly amazing is that they've been in almost every game.. losing 4 games by two scores.

Yep. Now in fairness, football is a game of attrition, and most QBs aren't working with their full complement of weapons at many points during a season. So Mac's certainly not alone there. However, this team had holes from the jump. I mean, has there been anyone on O that's been a surprisingly better contributor than we expected this season? I guess one could say Rham, but I think we knew he was likely to be a beast from what we saw last year. I don't think there's a single position on O where we're getting more than we expected. That's a problem, and has truly harmed Mac's development.

 

[Bowser]

Despite my Zappophile status, I will say I've seen a bit more out of Mac these past few weeks, and I've been persuaded that the problems with the surrounding cast may be the primary cause of his poor performance. He's continued to be cautious in his decision-making, led some good drives, and put some balls in the endzone. If I squint, I can still see the potential for an above-average starting QB -- with an above average OL, a true #1 WR, a slot guy, and a James White type at RB (!). My guess, however, is that he'll end up a middle of the pack guy, which may be enough for Belichick. Conventional wisdom says teams need a top-end QB to compete for a championship, but it's not at all clear BB feels that way. I suspect he does not.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Per the Patriots Unfiltered podcast (Lazar and others): Would it surprise anyone to learn the Patriots have a top 5 (3rd IIRC) most explosive offensive plays in the NFL? 20+ yard plays are explosive plays. They also have a top 5 explosive play rate. The problem for Mac and the offense isn't that they don't generate explosive plays but that they can't continually execute drives and/or have more 3-and-outs than they should.